Is there a new Lebanon war dawning?

[Skybird]

Sure there is, the question is only when. But I wonder if it now is about that time of the year again.

Repeatedly in the past weeks and months, rockets had been fired from Lebanon into Israel, with Israel responding with artillery strikes, demonstrative overflights with fighterbombers, and increased intel activity on southern Lebanon which is controlled by it's archenemy Hezbollah. Over the imminent past, things seem to have entered an escalatory path without many Western media noting it. Hezbollah has evaded taking responsibility by claiming subgroups that had broken away from Hezbollah being responsible for these rocket strikes - which not only Israel but also the UN blue helmets and many diplomats do not believe, of course. Western diplomats get quoted with admitting that the UN mission in southern Lebanon that was about preventing the militarization of the area again has been a total failure and that Hezbollah has been massively rearmed, under the seeing eyes of the UN blue helmets who have scored far too little in searching and finding weapons of Hezbollah, and also have not really tried with the needed determination. It's just that the damn political rules of operations do not give the blue helmets any useful powers to have prevented these weapons deliveries, and they are not strong enough to challenge Hezbollah there anyway - pretty much exactly what I predicted after the last Lebanon war when the French insisted on the combat-robust, battle-hardened UN rushing in. The UN troops are stationed there at the mercy of Hezbollah. Israel's posture towards these blue helmets again has turned cool in the past weeks, since these units have proven too often in the past years to be a source of intel information on the Israeli military's activities for Hezbollah which is overhearing their communications that the UN troops do not encode sufficiently. they report to their precious higher civilian committees what they see the Israelis are doing - and Hezbollah reads it in these comms as well. No wonder the Israelis already were pissed 2006.

Lebanese diplomats are alarmed at things in the south escalating apparently, and have contacted the UN over the situation. Last days have seen a massive spike in hectic diplomatic activity behind the curtain, of which the media mostly do not seem to take note of, surprisingly. Israel also currently holds manouvers with the US Navy and hosts an American destroyer in harbour that is said to be specialised in intercepting missiles in flight. the ship will stay for at least another 10 days.

10 days that could become tense.

I'm referring to very few minor pieces from various media releases over the past three days, and personal contact. From the latter I can tell that currently all Western nations have raised the alarm level of their diplomatic teams again that are scheduled with Israel and Lebanon affairs. It's just that this time it gets somewhat hidden from the public, or has caught the media off guard.

In a wider context it is interesting to have snapped up that Obama has ordered the work on developing on an even greater, bigger conventional bomb than the existing MOABs to be started or to be continued, which might be a signal that he is seeking the capability to bust those Iranian deep-hidden bunkers that so far seem to be out of reach for existing MOABs without needing to use small nukes, not to mention that preicse target coordinates are still not said to have been gained (which could have changed over the past two years, I admit, I refer to reports from 2 years back).

[CaptainHaplo]

Interesting info Sky, and thanks for sharing it.

Lebanon has long been one the powder kegs in the area, especially since they still are stuggling over whether or not Syria is in control. One election the lebanese nationalists win, then they are unable to move out of the economic struggles, and the next round puts pro syrian leaders back in. The fact is Syria has been looking for a way to retake the heights. It wasn't long ago they had a rather substantial force mustered in range of doing it, or at least making a rather good attempt. Its important for everyone to remember, Hezbollah does very little unless it is at the direction of Syria.

If it comes to a escalating confrontation, it will be interesting to see how the administration handles it, as well as how much pull they can show in the area.

[Skybird]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8341737.stm

Why is there this naval mission by the EU to interrupt weapon smuggling to the Hezbollah, if it then is the Isaraeli navy itself landing a very major coup in seizing hundreds of tons of Iranian weapons for Hezbollah on the high seas?

Stupid Europeans thinking they must have a word in that too. Leave the Israelis to themselves when it comes to guarding their vital security interests. They are more expert in it than the EU ever would have a will to eventually become.

This story leaves me wondering how much Iranian weapon supply reaches Hezbollah via land routes if the UN blue helmets already make a big Hallali if having found just one or two isolated missles launchers somewhere. Eventually. Not too often. But it could happen. On a lucky day. If they are really pushing for it. Pushing with determination, I mean.

Why is there this naval mission by the EU to interrupt weapon smuggling to the Hezbollah,

Because there are areas where the Israeli Navy cannot operate.

Stupid Europeans thinking they must have a word in that too. Leave the Israelis to themselves when it comes to guarding their vital security interests.

It is precicely because Israel cannot manage by themselves that other nations are involved.

[Zachstar]

We seriously DONT want them having to do things on their own over there. If they feel cornered they will start additional strikes which could cause a major war over there.

As long as they know we will respond if they **** with Israel too much things will be atleast semi-calm over there.