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Old 10-10-09, 10:10 AM   #106
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Bad timing, Neal.

for you: http://www.roozonline.com/english/in...f-victory.html

A position on the detail that falls somewhere inbetween your and my view of it.

And a summary of several aspects, infos and persons that speak for and against the "conspiration" against an octobre surprise - as I said somewhere above, one must admit that it is controversially perceived, but summa summarum imho more speaks for that it existed than what speaks against it.

http://www.de-fact-o.com/fact_read.php?id=31
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Old 10-10-09, 01:58 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by CaptainHaplo View Post
Let me help unravel all the tin hat Reagan conspiracies here.

The Iranians were not sure who would win. If they gave up the hostages before the election, and Carter won, they had no bargaining chips and had lost leverage for no reason. If they didn't give up the hostages, and Carter won, then they still had a tool to use. If Reagan won, he had been making it clear that the hostages would be home, or ELSE. So the Iranians did the smart, sensible thing. They waited to see what happened.

Reagan won, they realized he wasn't bluffing, and said "ok here ya go, we are letting them go." Its just plain ole common sense. Something many seem to lose when they talk politics.
Yeah, that's the story. I vaguely remember the October Surprise theories from back in the day, but they just seem to be your typical evil Republican conspiracy theories.
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That's the way I saw it too. And reading numerous books, most reflected the same attitude. The Iranians were really paranois about the US and CIA, a big part of what led to taking the students hostage. They were seriously worried about Reagan taking office.

Now, that's my kind of president
Indeed.

Btw, Skybird, I wasn't trying to be glib about not finding links to it during a quick search. I was genuinely looking for references to what you were talking about as to educate myself further on the subject.

Oh, and isn't it interesting the way some threads turn here on Subsim?
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Old 10-10-09, 09:32 PM   #108
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Skybird - am not trying to nitpick, but I do want to correct something you said. The hostages were NOT released hours after Reagan won the election. Presidential elections are held November 5th in the US. The hostages were released 6 minutes after Reagan was SWORN IN - which always occurs on January 20th. This is roughly 75 days after Reagan won the election.

The timing actually SUPPORTS the idea that there was no negotiations between Iran and any US group over the election. Between the election and being sworn in, Reagan still had no ability to order an action. The moment his oath was done, he could act.

In fact, sources indicate that there was a plan approved of by Reagan to immediately deal with the Iranians and the hostages, that was waiting for the go word. It is also indicated that the "transition team" as it is called, let the Iranians know that hell would break lose if the problem wasn't immediately dealt with.

The Iranians - aka Komeine, feared that US action wouldn't stop with a simple hostage recovery, but rather a restoral of the Shah. Lose something - or lose everything was the choice they faced.
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Old 10-11-09, 04:33 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by CaptainHaplo View Post
Skybird - am not trying to nitpick, but I do want to correct something you said. The hostages were NOT released hours after Reagan won the election. Presidential elections are held November 5th in the US. The hostages were released 6 minutes after Reagan was SWORN IN - which always occurs on January 20th. This is roughly 75 days after Reagan won the election.

The timing actually SUPPORTS the idea that there was no negotiations between Iran and any US group over the election. Between the election and being sworn in, Reagan still had no ability to order an action. The moment his oath was done, he could act.

In fact, sources indicate that there was a plan approved of by Reagan to immediately deal with the Iranians and the hostages, that was waiting for the go word. It is also indicated that the "transition team" as it is called, let the Iranians know that hell would break lose if the problem wasn't immediately dealt with.

The Iranians - aka Komeine, feared that US action wouldn't stop with a simple hostage recovery, but rather a restoral of the Shah. Lose something - or lose everything was the choice they faced.
With the timing you are right. However, it was not without american favours in return, the freezed Iranian financial assets of Iran were released one day later.

Regarding Khomenei, I remember it differently, and one of the links above supports what I said on Bani-Sadr and Khomenei.

The story is not to be explained one way or the other, with all certainity, one can only take the many hints and observations and statements from different sources and different people, assess the one against the other, and then see which pan of the scale goes up and which goes down. I think the pan with the "conspiration theory" weighs heavier, and quite many being in better knowledge of the events also say so: more speaks for the theory than speaks against it.

For that practical reason I base on it being true.
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Old 10-11-09, 09:32 AM   #110
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I agree on we each have our own opinion after weighing facts.

My view on the asset freeze removal is te whole "reward good behavior, punish bad behavior". It also could be seen as a "reset" like our current president is so fond of talking about.

I am looking into the fighter/bomber thing. Always good to look at it from all sides.
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Old 10-12-09, 12:56 AM   #111
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This "prize" is determined my a handful of left wing Norwegian politicians. So why do we (in the U.S.) pay any attention to it at all?

Just two years ago they gave it to Gore for his book on the weather. At least he actually wrote the book.
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Old 10-12-09, 01:42 AM   #112
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Obama should have never taken the award and give a slap to their faces by declining.
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Old 10-12-09, 05:26 AM   #113
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then those mocking him now would have attacked him nevertheless, just for different reasons. The prize is a no win-no win-situation from the very beginning. Maybe that is why the first reaction to the reporters telling them about the prize was a complety unenthusiastic, laconic "Wow."

A competent jury in contact with reality would have known that. Obama - probabaly has cursed them for their folly. It makes everything, really everything more difficult for him.
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Old 10-12-09, 08:44 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by KG_Jag View Post
At least he actually wrote the book.
Thats up for debate as well


Even Obama's buddys are finding it hard to believe.

Quote:
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's socialist leader Hugo Chavez said on Sunday that U.S. President Obama had done nothing beyond wishful thinking to earn the Nobel Peace Prize.
http://www.reuters.com/article/world...59A1MU20091011
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Old 10-12-09, 12:01 PM   #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird View Post
The prize is a no win-no win-situation from the very beginning.
Definitely. And I guess if he had turned it down, there would certainly be people who would find it overbearing.
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Old 10-14-09, 11:59 AM   #116
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The Taliban weighs in and they aint happy

ISLAMABAD — The Pakistani Taliban has criticized the decision to award Barack Obama the Nobel Peace Prize saying the U.S. president should have received a "villain of peace" award instead

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,...est=latestnews
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Old 10-15-09, 06:11 AM   #117
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There are reports now, basing on a Norwegian newspaper, that there has been bitter debate in the committee, with three of the five jurors having been against the prize awareded to Obama. But it was pushed by one member of the socialist party, suported by the fifth guy who also is member of that party. In the end, they stubbornly pushed it through.

Strange math.

Information on internal processes of the Nobel committees are said to be extremely rare. That it became known now may be a hint at the scale of the conflict behind the stage curtain.

Meanwhile a rumour appeared that Obama next year will be given the Nobel prize for literature, because he certainly will write a book one day and it is very likely to become a big success. If universities only could agree on giving him some honory doctorates, nobel prizes for chemistry, physics, medicine and economics are in reach for Obama, too.
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Old 10-15-09, 09:34 AM   #118
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He already wrote a book

Quote:
Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance
http://www.amazon.com/Dreams-My-Fath.../dp/1400082773
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Old 10-15-09, 11:46 AM   #119
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Okay, then he can be given two Nobel literature prizes. One for the book he already wrote and one for the books to come.
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Old 10-16-09, 02:46 AM   #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteamWake View Post
The Taliban weighs in and they aint happy

ISLAMABAD — The Pakistani Taliban has criticized the decision to award Barack Obama the Nobel Peace Prize saying the U.S. president should have received a "villain of peace" award instead

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,...est=latestnews
HEY!!! I'm the "villain of peace"!!!!!
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