Missing plane probably crashed in the Atlantic

[Skybird]

They report that a Spanish pilot saw a bright white shine in the area, but from some distance to where the French aircraft was supposed to be at that time, that moved vertically at high speed and after 5-6 seconds split into half a dozen light blips moving down. If that was the AF flight, it could be indicating either a serious navigation probloem, or that they were forced to stray off very far in order to local circumstances (which then they should have reported to ground control, I assume).

They also report that an official warning has been issued to all operators of Airbus models, that when flying in storms and turbulences, aircrews should maintain proper speed and redadjust the autothrottles. As far as I know, aircraft reduce their speed when flying through turbulences, and change the ignitor settings as well. I even use to do it in the simulator. Commentators say that the fact they issue the warning so early is a clear signal that they have very substantial ideas of what happened and meet their legal obligations by giving such a warning, then.

The conclusion therefore is: pilot error. The plane probably flew too fast, slammed into a wall of winds and turbulences, or accelerated during a sudden fall ("air hole"), so that speed went beyond safety limits and the airframe was ripped apart, making parts of the aircraft maybe also exploding in mid-air.

Maybe there was a navigation problem, when the pilots tried to alter their course to find a gap in the weather front, and that problem or error led them right into the mess. Also, weather radar can be tricky to read.

[sharkbit]

Originally Posted by GoldenRivet

yup.. like this image sent to me by a Captain i used to fly with quite a lot looks harmless enough... put it right on a fuel tank or one of the electrical motors responsible for Aileron or Elevator deflection - say that it jams in a full travel position... then what? you just roll or pitch uncontrollably.





unless you use the struck fuel tank scenario... a lightning strike severe enough as the one above makes contact with fuel vapor in a half empty wing and... KABOOM... you have about enough time to think "WTF" before your finished.

This photo has been erroneously reported as a lightning strike. It was in fact a electrical fire on the ground after ground power was hooked up.

Lightning does cause damage though. Normally airplanes are designed to dissipate the energy. Most of time, there is usually a entry hole somewhere and a exit hole somewhere. These are usually small. You'll usually see the entry on the radome on the nose and the exit up on the tail at the rudder or elevator. Sometimes it wil blow off a static wick or a end cap on a flight control. If an engine or prop gets struck, it will sometimes magnetize the bearings which causes problems and you usually have to replace the engine and/or prop.
None of this is catastrophic though.

We had a Lear 35 get hit a few years ago. It hit the nose, bounced along the top of the fuselage, leaving burn holes in 3 places, and exited the elevator, blowing a static wick apart. No catastrophic damage though.

I think the biggest threat after a strike is the effect it has on the electronics. I'm not familiar with the Airbus, but I bet it is a pretty electronic intensive aircraft. Who knows how bad lightning could have affected it.

My bet is severe turbulence but I would think they can avoid that with the aircraft radar showing returns of severe thunderstorms ahead.
Probably a combination of things, like any other aviation accident.

Hopefully they can recover the flight recorders and figure out exactly what happened.

[sharkbit]

Here's a link about the hole in that ASA aircraft with some good pictures:
http://blog.flightstory.net/1158/pho...rdier-crj-200/

[TDK1044]

I think this is the most likely scenario.

http://news.uk.msn.com/world/article...ntid=147760267

[GoldenRivet]

Originally Posted by sharkbit

Here's a link about the hole in that ASA aircraft with some good pictures:
http://blog.flightstory.net/1158/pho...rdier-crj-200/

neat find!

i was told lightning strike... ah well.

I have seen one as small as a penny or dime, and another about the size of a basketball, both at my home GA airport.

it can be pretty impressive being hit by lightning though!

[TheSatyr]

From the reports I've been reading,the last electronic message from the plane was that ALL electronics systems were failing and that the cabin had been de pressurized.

It all sounds like a cascade affect. System breakdowns leading to more system breakdowns leading to total system failure.

I never did like Airbus aircraft. Too much relying on electronics systems. I suspect their electronics systems were backed up by more electronics systems instead of by hydraulic systems. But then I know more about Boeing than I do Airbus so I could easily be wrong.

[Linton]

The Satyr,with your logic regarding electronic systems and aircraft are you suggesting that we all fly in a 300 seat version of the Wright Flyer???

[GoldenRivet]

lol warping wings and all.

its nice having a plane though - that when ALL electronics die - you still maintain control.

novel concept

[SteamWake]

This is a stunning article.

A key computer system had switched to alternative power and controls needed to keep the plane stable had been damaged.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06042009...tes_172538.htm

[sharkbit]

Give me a good old fashioned King Air or Lear 35 or any other airplane with control cables.
Airplane goes dark, you kepp on flying.

Of course, the wings still come off if you hit any extreme turbulence, but don't fly through that stuff dummy.

[XabbaRus]

OK now they are saying the wreckage found isn't that of Air France.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8083474.stm

[Jimbuna]

A fair few photos here:

http://www.bild.de/BILD/news/bild-en...-wreckage.html

[GoldenRivet]

we all must be prepared for the possibility that they may never find any part of the aircraft - or determine the cause of the tragedy.

[Linton]

A french ssn is to join the search according to the bbc

[Jimbuna]

Time to clear the area of all other subs then