Iranian Bet.

[TteFAboB]

The U.N. Security Council passed a weakened resolution Monday giving Iran until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of economic and diplomatic sanctions.

So far Iran has responded with a no.

With all the upgrades to Subsim, the happy twinkle twinkle little stars, the red reputation card, the next logical step is to turn Subsim into an illegal Gambling den.

Place your bets.

[Ducimus]

Un has more bark then bite and Iran isn't going to comply to ANYTHING that can be construed as favorable to the west.

[August]

I think they'll tell the UN to stick it. Sanctions will be imposed which will soon be bypassed and they'll continue to develop the bomb behind the scenes.

[scandium]

Forget developing the bomb. If I were the leader of Iran, I'd be looking at the massive U.S. footprint in Iraq, which had its own little UN saga of sanctions and resolutions in the 10 years leading up to it, and the surprise Israeli demolition and occupation of Lebanon that is legitimized by the border skirmish instigated by a group that has ties to Iran, and then I'd start looking at my other member of the Axis of Evil triad (NK) and coming to two conclusions:

1. Since developing their nuclear weapons they've been able to give the finger to the world and commemorate this past 4th of July with their own little fireworks display inspite of the empty threats levelled at them beforehand;

2. The country was poor before developing the nuke and this hasn't changed anything on that front, but NK has always done a little trade here and there on the conventional weapons front;

Thus, one does not need to be an evil genius to conclude that its in Iran's best interests to covertly pay NK some big bucks (Iran has them, NK needs them) for a couple of nukes if only as a deterrent to threats against their own sovereignty. What happens afterward who knows, but if I were the Iranian leader that's where I'd be putting all of my efforts right now.

[August]

Originally Posted by scandium

Forget developing the bomb. If I were the leader of Iran, I'd be looking at the massive U.S. footprint in Iraq, which had its own little UN saga of sanctions and resolutions in the 10 years leading up to it, and the surprise Israeli demolition and occupation of Lebanon that is legitimized by the border skirmish instigated by a group that has ties to Iran, and then I'd start looking at my other member of the Axis of Evil triad (NK) and coming to two conclusions:

1. Since developing their nuclear weapons they've been able to give the finger to the world and commemorate this past 4th of July with their own little fireworks display inspite of the empty threats levelled at them beforehand;

2. The country was poor before developing the nuke and this hasn't changed anything on that front, but NK has always done a little trade here and there on the conventional weapons front;

Thus, one does not need to be an evil genius to conclude that its in Iran's best interests to covertly pay NK some big bucks (Iran has them, NK needs them) for a couple of nukes if only as a deterrent to threats against their own sovereignty. What happens afterward who knows, but if I were the Iranian leader that's where I'd be putting all of my efforts right now.

Like i said before Scandium, NK differs from Iraq in that it has China as it's big brother. Anyone who attacks NK risks war with China without prior approval. Something that China has never done regarding a border state, ever. I'll bet the west also has private Chinese assurances that they'll keep their NK border dog under control.

But who does an attacker of Iran face other than Iran? What nation is going to say to the US, or NATO, or Israel for that matter, that if you nuke Iran we'll nuke you?

No, the mullahs might be insane but they certainly aren't stupid. I think they'll continue to covertly work on either building or obtaining a bomb but as soon as they get it they won't just use it as a deterrent against attack. They'll try to covertly give it to somebody else to detonate in one or more western, or more likely Israeli, cities and then claim to be innocent witnesses of Allahs power against the infidel.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by August

They'll try to covertly give it to somebody else to detonate in one or more western, or more likely Israeli, cities and then claim to be innocent witnesses of Allahs power against the infidel.

I don't think so, they know Israël will flatten there country then.

[STEED]

Iran is sitting on the oil and they can do what they want.

Granted for how much longer is anyone guess. :hmm:

[STEED]

Originally Posted by TteFAboB

The U.N. Security Council passed a weakened resolution Monday giving Iran until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of economic and diplomatic sanctions.

September 1st
Deadline extended to October 31st

October 31st
U.N. sends a final warning to Iran. Iran sticks two fingers up to the U.N.

November 15th
U.N. has big meeting and talks lasting to the 1st December

December 1st
U.N. sends a stronger worded letter to Iran. Iran calls the U.N. warmongers

December 20th
U.N. backs down and puts the whole thing on the back burner until the year 2014


Don't mess with the U.N. or they will send you a letter.:p

[Skybird]

Iran will outsit the UN. One day, eventually there will be sanctions, more or less inefficient ones, that will be bypassed at the same time. China and India will massively work against Western attempts to isolate Iran, and strengthen their ties with it thankfully - every drop of Iranian oil the west ignores, these two will pick up without complaining. All the time Iran will keep on working on the bomb, and finally get it. The US will not massively attack Iran, they should have learned their Iraq lessons. An air campaign will not be sufficient to shut down Iran's program, causing them minor irritations and minor delays only. A ground war is out of question. only the use of nukes would do the job, and that political will to use them I do not see. Also, even nukes need target coordinates, and several key installations are unknown in their exact positioning. You see, guys, Iran simply is in the far stronger position in this, and time is working for Iran.

[TteFAboB]

That's it. Deadline is knocking on the door. The time has come.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060831/...madinejad_dc_1

Ahmadinejad refused to comply. So whoever placed a bet on that won. Now we'll have to wait a few days (weeks? Months?) and see if any sanctions are imposed, for now there's only talks.

Congratulations to the winners so far.

[Konovalov]

I voted "No and that sanctions will be imposed" but I would have also liked to have cast a vote of "Whatever happens, Ahmedinejad will always be a jerk."

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by TteFAboB

That's it. Deadline is knocking on the door. The time has come.

No it hasn't. Bet that they will do... hm, an ultimatum, maybe? And some weeks of psychological counseling, of course ("Mama, that boy from Iran doesn't play with us." "Why don't you care for him anyway?" "Buähähäää... he makes me feel so saaaaad..." ) After that, they will probably increase the pressure and start getting serious about talking about sanctions at one time in the future.

One step at a time, kids, one step at a time. After all, the authority of the Un must be enforced, with detemrination, unity, and strength.

[Sea Demon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

After that, they will probably increase the pressure and start getting serious about talking about sanctions at one time in the future.

One step at a time, kids, one step at a time. After all, the authority of the Un must be enforced, with detemrination, unity, and strength.

The only nation really capable of enforcing UN resolutions/sanctions is the USA. And alot of you get mad when the US does it. Thus, these UN resolutions are a joke. Sanctions will not work. And Iran will continue to build it's nuclear infrastructure. And perhaps someday Iran will have nuclear weapons. Comforting thought, eh?

[snowsub]

Originally Posted by Skybird

After all, the authority of the Un must be enforced, with detemrination, unity, and strength.

The UN, unity?:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Hasn't China & Russia already just stated they won't back sanctions?
Nothing is going to come of it, no sanction and Iran will build what ever they want...
Whether they actually do anything with it is another question imo.

[Skybird]

Glad you two stumbled over my points by chance