China has a foot in the door of NATO's internal defence market

[Skybird]

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67556

Cheaper, tech transfer, co-constructed in Turkey. These three arguments counter the idea that Ankara maybe just wanted to mount pressure on the Russian, American and European competitors to drop their prices.

However, if you google for the story, you find also reports that may add another, militarily decisive argument. During the field testings it seems to have shown that the Chinese system outperformed its competitors and hit all targets, where as the American, Russian and Italian-French systems all missed some targets.

Brussel now fears that China may get easier access to NATO tech secrets and the opportunity to infest the infrastructure with malware. However, the pressing demands to Turkey to reconsider the deal with China must also be seen as an attempt to bully Turkey into giving its money to a Western producer instead.

I'm interested to find out over time whether or not Turkey sticks to its decision.

---

In a wider perspective:

Some days ago, the Taiwanese defence ministry warns of China having reached full capability to keep the US out and away from any war over Taiwan. While this also must be seen as an attempt to get more money for the military, it nevertheless is a warning as well. That the Chinese systematically close the gap to the US is nothing new, and warnings of US submarines no longer being able to operate freely at will in the disputed territories is a warning the Navy has released already several years ago. The Chinese put tremendous priority on refusing carrier groups entrance to their operation areas close enough to Taiwan to make a difference. Without heavy support by the US, China already dominates the Taiwanese defence on sea and in the air, and has a every part of the island in the crosshairs of one of its missiles. The only thing they now must solve is how to bring tens and hundreds of thousands of troops to Taiwan in a short amount of time. I think they will get that one solved, too, within ten years.

Add to this the financial madness of Washington, and the totally hopeless situation regarding cutting its spendings and reducing its debts, not to mention to ever pay them back in value. The Chinese have so far bought over one thousand tons of gold this year alone, and their reserves are estimated to be at 7K tons minimum now, with maybe even 10K tons and thus probably already exceeding the US reserves with some 8 thousand tons. And there is no end in sight for the Chinese hunger for gold. It is louder and louder rumored that they prepare to dramatically reduce their losses and vulnerabilities by preparing their currency to get a gold-standard again, which would mean heaven falling for the US and its deeply rotten fiscal status (and Europe as well). If they do so, and disconnect the Yuan from the Dollar and for example ban trading in dollars and Euros, but insist on being payed in real values instead of worthless debt bonds and leaves of paper, the change in the global financial regime would have been established and the Chinese Yuan would be the new world's reserve currency, a regime change coming at great relief for China and great turmoil for all others. But the turmoil costs the Chinese probably less than to endlessly loosing their wealth in endless American fiscal insanity. Mind you, you only need to have enough quantity of a currency to allow the market being saturated so that business transactions can be negotiated and carried out - how high in total quantities the number of coins and banknotes is, is not important, because if it is a gold-covered currency, market prices will adapt automatically to reflect the relative value. You do not need millions and millions of tons in gold - not at all (that is one of the desperate illusions the West and especially America cling to).

Many dramatic change sin history have come surprisingly fast and did not move as slow as forseen and expected. The change from the American to the Chinese era could come much earlier and take place much faster, than most people expect. I strongly disagree with the often voiced idea that the ties between China and America are economical such that China cannot afford to let the US fall. America simply has no alternative than to just put its faith in this one desperate hope. And only a hope that is indeed, an objective sitrep it is not, imo. Such a change will come at costs for China, yes. Nevertheless it could be reasonable from their perspective - if they calculate the costs to stick with the status quo and continuing to finance America and to live with the Euro crisis would cost them more.

And tolerating that situation indeed opens a bill of disastrous costs, so nobody should be surprised if the Chinese decide against staying with that. We do not talk about solving the debt crisis, do we. We just talk about delaying the final breakdown, the day which Keynes referred to when saying that in the end we are all dead. He knew very well that in the end his system must collapse. That's is the part about Keynes that people desperately ignore nowadays.

We have a saying in Germany. Wer nicht hören will, muß fühlen. Nothing needs to be added to that. It's a form of Karma.

[Oberon]

Last I recall, the estimated time for China to be in a position to retake Taiwan was about 2016-18, this gives them time to get a couple more carriers in place and some more carrier killer weaponry in position.
The biggest stumbling block for any cross-straits war though is the economy, we all know how delicate the Chinese economy is, its success is the only thing keeping China together at the moment because the difference between conditions in the coastal cities of the PRC and the internal countryside villages and towns are so extreme that really the only comparison that can be made is with the UK in the early Victorian era when the Industrial Revolution drew people out from the countryside and into the cities, but while this happened over the space of five or six decades in the UK, it's happened in less than two in China, and as such it's built a house of cards which any major incident can knock it all down. In order for that economy to be made stable, China needs to reduce that gap between the coast and the countryside, increasing internal demand for Chinese goods and reducing the need for foreign trade and reliance on foreign currency.
On that note, Taiwan is one of Chinas biggest trade partners, and unless the PRC is able to take Taiwan without firing a shot which is incredibly unlikely, any war will massively damage that trade, as well as damaging the Taiwanese economy, thus making the PRC have to clean up the mess it makes if and when it takes the islands (since there are also other smaller islands other than Taiwan in question here) and this is a burden that the PRC in its current state cannot afford to undertake, however make no mistake that within the next six years this may well change, and certainly Beijing will want to have itself in a position where it has the option available. In the immediate term, unless a hardline communist coup takes place (the likelihood of which has decreased now that Bo Xilai has been locked up) then Taiwan will likely not evolve beyond the odd tense exchange in this decade, likewise the disagreements with Japan over the Senkaku islands.

[mapuc]

Heard this once in a TV-Seminars on a danish TV-Channel(can't remember when)

it was about the economical development in that area.

If I recall it correctly on of the spectators asked if or when China will retake Taiwan.

the economist said: the day USA has a liabilities, so big towards China, that they can't pay the bill not even the interest. Then China could send some kind of Payment reminder

Then he said a lot more, which I can't remember.

I do remember thinking loud-They can send as many Payment reminder they want and they can demand Taiwan for this debt instead. USA has some kind of treaty with Taiwan and any attempt on invading Taiwan...welll

I could be wrong.

Markus

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Heard this once in a TV-Seminars on a danish TV-Channel(can't remember when)

it was about the economical development in that area.

If I recall it correctly on of the spectators asked if or when China will retake Taiwan.

the economist said: the day USA has a liabilities, so big towards China, that they can't pay the bill not even the interest. Then China could send some kind of Payment reminder

Then he said a lot more, which I can't remember.

I do remember thinking loud-They can send as many Payment reminder they want and they can demand Taiwan for this debt instead. USA has some kind of treaty with Taiwan and any attempt on invading Taiwan...welll

I could be wrong.

Markus

I don't know, it's partially feasible, China has just as much to lose from America defaulting on its debt as it does from retaking Taiwan by force in terms of finances. I can't see America giving up Taiwan though, it would send a very bad signal to its Pacific allies, particularly Japan, that it is willing to sell out, and that would be suicide for the US in the Pacific.
In regards to China taking Taiwan as a debt reminder, that's not feasible, it's too rash for Beijing who don't tend to make rash decisions, and there's too much collateral damage for China to risk it.
After 2020 though, given the US decline, the situation could change, certainly we're going to see a more militarily resurgent Japan, and Australia is going to have to step up more to deal with local flare-ups, and nations like Vietnam and the Phillipines are going to become a lot more important in the affairs of the Pacific. In a post-America world it will take a while for a new dominant power to emerge, and in that time there's going to be a devolution of security responsibility to regional powers, as there has been in Europe after the fall of the Berlin wall. I just hope the regional powers are ready for that responsibility...

[mapuc]

^ I have tried to find out which countries, besides China that has borrowed U.S. most

I can see it is Japan on second place

I found some old article from 2009 and 2011.

If you can find the latest and how much it is by percentage on totally debt

Markus

[Skybird]

The Taiwan issue sooner or later will reach a state where it is not the question anymore what the US wants, but what it actually can. And the "can" is is constant decline.

China quickly approaches a status where it can send shockwaves around the global economy and fiscal system huge enough that they would paralyse Western nations and take them out of the equation.

It also has one big advantage, amongst several others. Agriculturally, it is autark - no probability for hunger revolts. And since Taiwan is an issue of utmost value for Chinese nationalism and national pride, the people hardly would go on the streets over any invasion of Taiwan. At least not in China.

Oberon, China looses billions every month over the Chinese engagement in irresponsible American fiscal policies. It is foolish that while they grow stronger and stronger thy would continue to agree to the need that they must stabilise and refinance the Western follies endlessly. They have sent so many signals in past years that clearly indicate that they have no intention to do so and that they will abandon the Dollar and even the Euro sooner or later. They will not do it, nor will they leave Taiwan to itself forever.

However, I assume that they would prefer a peaceful, though blackmailed reunification of Taiwan with the motherland to any military action. But they are working on the military solution as well, and I think they are within ten years to solving the equation.

Then it will be tough decisions for Taiwan and the US - a US that is financially tumbling already (and I do not refer to the current hokuspokus in Washington only, which is only a minor symptom: the whole system is sick and deeply rotten). A fiscal system like this cannot survive forever. It is a fiscal system founded by and on the grounds of ever-growing debts, and is a fiscal system that in principle doe snot even know what real money really is.

It is a double strategy Bejing follows to push the US out of the game. Militarily - AND fiscally. Washington thinks its remedy and primary defence is the debt-bond-printer and taking the whole global economy hostage. And that is a wrong calculation. The Chinese will not obey to that irresponsible insanity forever.

Keep your strength, and grow stronger - but hide your strength.

Since I see the destruction of the current fiscal system as inevitable anyway, I welcome any successful attempt to help accelerating the process, even if it is a most painful one. America has had its chance regarding fiscal responsibility, since decades - and it failed to honour it. The Europeans have messed up as well. Now its time for the next contender to try. Hopefully he has learned from our mistakes.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ I have tried to find out which countries, besides China that has borrowed U.S. most

I can see it is Japan on second place

I found some old article from 2009 and 2011.

If you can find the latest and how much it is by percentage on totally debt

Markus

Japan. Explicit debts are 2000% (two thousand) of the GDP. I do not even want to know what numbers you get when assessing their implicit debts.

When the gold standard was given up after Bretton Woods, the Dollar had already lost over 95% of its real buying value from shortly after the end of the civil war. Go figure how it is today, four decades later. When the Euro was introduced, the often hailed, oh so stable German Mark that was founded after WWII had already lost over 80% of its value. It was anything - but not a stable currency.

So much for stable currencies and claims that there is no significant inflation and no significant devaluation. Devaluing real money and turning it into debt bonds - bets on the future, in other words - only is the reason why you give up gold standards.

[Skybird]

More on topic, Turkey: WP reports that Ankara has disclosed identity of ten Israeli agents in Iran to Iranian authorities.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...45b_story.html

I say since long that the Turks cannot be trusted, and that they play a double game . But if true, this act even by Erdoghan's underhanded standards would a rich. NATO and Washington need to draw consequences from this story. If the story is true, Turkey cannot be NATO member any longer, and should be thrown out, no matter formalities.

Well. Should.

The kicking-out will not happen, as we all can easily forsee. Obama loves Erdoghan. Obama tolerates a nuclear armed Iran just to not needing to take action about it. And he dislikes Netanyahu. Obama and the new Iranian smile-wolf in a sheep's fur will soon be the closest of penpals, you'll see.

The EU, arabophile and anti-Israeli as it is, will not care for the Turkish treason, and will use it as an illustration of why Turkey more urgently than ever needs to become EU member.

With allies like this, you'll soon may find your enemies to be the lesser evil - they are easier to be recognised as such.

[Oberon]

But what is the future of NATO? I mean, now that the Soviet Union is no more and the likelihood of Russia storming across Germany has been relegated to Call of Duty Modern Warfare, aside from Kosovo NATO hasn't really got much in the way of a role in the current Europe.

[Skybird]

That a defence is currently not needed should not make anyone believe that one could dismantle all defences. One should keep it up as a regional defence force for the North Atlantic region: North America, Europe. Cannot hurt to maintain a reserve. Whether that reserve indeed is stable, is another question.

Against out-of-area operations I have been from all discussions on. I do not follow the American idea of turning NATO into auxiliary forces for globalized American action. I am all for taking the term NATO literally. All operations outside that area should be understood as national war operations by individual states with no obligation by official NATO to help, assist, support them.

The alternative would be to form a military union of Europeans only, a NATO without Canada and the US. Realistic? Not in the forseeable time, I think.

But possible that America's role in NATO erodes all by itself, due to financial constraints.

The function of a reserve strictly is to be available when it is needed. It must not produce benefits and interests while waiting.

[Oberon]

That is the problem, to maintain a decent reserve requires money that is simply not available. In some situations you can do it on the cheap, the Boneyard comes to mind, but in regards to ships and the like, it gets expensive over time to keep the units ready that they may be reactivated within a short period of time. Plus there's the difficulty of actually attracting people into the reserve forces to begin with, you can draw down standing forces and allocate a large portion of them to the reserves, but when it comes to getting new blood into the system, as Australia is showing, it's not that easy in the modern society where people would rather sit at an office chair than in the back of an APC (and I can't say I blame them), of course in a war time scenario there's always the draft but then you have training problems to deal with as well as a war time economy.
A NATO without the US and Canada is very unlikely though, although the idea of an EU army has been floated time and again, I don't see any of the EU agreeing on something long enough to pass it through, especially when it comes to military sovereignty.

[Skybird]

Drones take over the air war within the forseeable future now, I think. The next field where I could imagine drones becoming the dominant platform, are naval forces. That could help against the personnel problem of reserve forces that you outlined.

A very major step will be the shift from remote-controlled drones to autonomous drones. Only this will really adress the vulnerability of RC drones. I imagine the developing of such software is no easy task.

What for the forseeable future will remain difficult to replace it by drones, is the boot on the ground. However, the opposing boot on the ground can be hampered by own air drones.