Math q: variance from probability equation.

Gargamel · 09-09-12, 07:59 PM

So I'm drawing 3 cards to a pair, 2's and jokers are wild. How do I find the variance (and ergo the standard deviation) from just the equation? I know I can plug a sufficient sample size of results into a spreadsheet and get a close empirical result, but I want a theoretical value.

So what Is the variance on drawing to three of a kind, and only three if a kind?

(8/50)+(8/49)(42/50)+(8/48)(42/50)(42/49)

Also please correct the basic equation if that's off, it's been a while since I crunched probabilities. And no this isn't homework or anything. I firmly believe Hoyle casino 2006's betting strategies for multi hand poker (wild party) are flawed. If they wrote this strategy anywhere close to the no limit holden strategy they included, then its wrong for sure.

I'm just seeing results which are not approaching my calculated EV, wondering if the play is of such a high variance that it's more of a gamble than it's worth.

My contention is that drawing for the full house when dealt a natural two pair is wrong. I think one should draw 3 instead, saving one pair. Pays on 3 of a kind or higher.

3OK- x1
FH - x3
4OK- x3
5OK- x9

And obviously I'm assuming discarded cards get reshuffled. If they didn't odds would increase some. I have no data either way on this. Never really looked for them when playing 50 hands at once.

frau kaleun · 09-10-12, 06:29 PM

I was told there would be no math.

nikimcbee · 09-10-12, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frau kaleun

I was told there would be no math.

This.

Sailor Steve · 09-10-12, 07:31 PM

I can only quote one of the great philosophers of the modern era:

Don't think. Feeeeeeel!

Pisces · 09-11-12, 08:38 AM

Statistics is one of the few subjects in math that makes my head hurt. Besides that, I'm not fluent in card games/gambling. So sorry, can't help.

Gargamel · 09-11-12, 12:37 PM

Sigh.

09-09-12, 07:59 PM	#1
Gargamel Lucky Sailor Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Rome Posts: 4,273 Downloads: 81 Uploads: 0	Math q: variance from probability equation. So I'm drawing 3 cards to a pair, 2's and jokers are wild. How do I find the variance (and ergo the standard deviation) from just the equation? I know I can plug a sufficient sample size of results into a spreadsheet and get a close empirical result, but I want a theoretical value. So what Is the variance on drawing to three of a kind, and only three if a kind? (8/50)+(8/49)(42/50)+(8/48)(42/50)(42/49) Also please correct the basic equation if that's off, it's been a while since I crunched probabilities. And no this isn't homework or anything. I firmly believe Hoyle casino 2006's betting strategies for multi hand poker (wild party) are flawed. If they wrote this strategy anywhere close to the no limit holden strategy they included, then its wrong for sure. I'm just seeing results which are not approaching my calculated EV, wondering if the play is of such a high variance that it's more of a gamble than it's worth. My contention is that drawing for the full house when dealt a natural two pair is wrong. I think one should draw 3 instead, saving one pair. Pays on 3 of a kind or higher. 3OK- x1 FH - x3 4OK- x3 5OK- x9 And obviously I'm assuming discarded cards get reshuffled. If they didn't odds would increase some. I have no data either way on this. Never really looked for them when playing 50 hands at once. __________________ Luck is a residue of Design. Last edited by Gargamel; 09-09-12 at 08:39 PM.

09-10-12, 07:31 PM	#4
Sailor Steve Eternal Patrol Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: High in the mountains of Utah Posts: 50,369 Downloads: 745 Uploads: 249	I can only quote one of the great philosophers of the modern era: Don't think. Feeeeeeel! __________________ “Never do anything you can't take back.” —Rocky Russo

09-11-12, 12:37 PM	#6
Gargamel Lucky Sailor Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Rome Posts: 4,273 Downloads: 81 Uploads: 0	Sigh. __________________ Luck is a residue of Design.

09-10-12, 06:29 PM	#2
frau kaleun Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Skyri--oh who are we kidding, I'm probably at Lowe's. Again. Posts: 12,706 Downloads: 168 Uploads: 0	I was told there would be no math.

09-11-12, 08:38 AM	#5
Pisces Silent Hunter Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: AN9771 Posts: 4,904 Downloads: 304 Uploads: 0	Statistics is one of the few subjects in math that makes my head hurt. Besides that, I'm not fluent in card games/gambling. So sorry, can't help.