The improved Dongfeng 21D - a game changer, analysts say

Skybird · 12-29-10, 08:31 AM

From the Financial Times

(text quoted via Google since their access is restricted)

===========

Chinese missile shifts power in Pacific

By Kathrin Hille in Beijing

Published: December 28 2010 11:58

A new Chinese anti-ship missile that will significantly alter the balance of military power in the Pacific is now operational, according to a senior US commander.

Admiral Robert Willard, the top US commander in the Pacific, said the Chinese ballistic missile, which was designed to threaten US aircraft carriers in the region, had reached “initial operational capability”.

His remarks signal that China is challenging the US ability to project military power in Asia much sooner than many had expected.

The US and other countries in the Pacific region are increasingly concerned at the speed with which China is developing its naval power. Japan, for example, recently decided to refocus its military on the potential threat from China.

“So now we know – China’s [anti-ship ballistic missile] is no longer aspirational,” Andrew Erickson, an expert on the Chinese military at the US Naval War College, said in response to Adm Willard’s comments to the Asahi newspaper.

Defence analysts have called the Dongfeng 21 D missile a “game changer” since it could force US aircraft carriers to stay away from waters where China does not want to see them. These include the Taiwan Strait where a potential conflict could develop over the self-ruled island which China claims.
The land-based missile is designed to target and track aircraft carrier groups with the help of satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles and over-the-horizon radar. Aircraft carriers and their accompanying ships are unable to defend themselves against such a threat.

Aware of the missile’s development, the Pentagon has already started considering ways to counter the new threat, including a new concept for more closely integrated navy and air force operations.

Robert Gates, US defence secretary, said in September, the development of such a missile would force the Pentagon to rethink the way carriers were deployed.

“If the Chinese or somebody else has a highly accurate anti-ship cruise or ballistic missile that can take out a carrier at hundreds of miles of ranges and therefore in Asia puts us back behind the second island chain, how then do you use carriers differently in the future?” Mr Gates asked.

The second chain of islands runs from the Bonins along the Marianas, Guam and Palau, forming a north-south line east of Japan and the Philippines. This line defines what China sees as its “near seas” – waters in which the US navy now frequently operates and are home to US naval bases and allies such as Japan and South Korea.

Adm Willard noted this year that China’s anti-ship ballistic missile was undergoing extensive testing and was close to deployment. Observers believe China started production of missile motors last year and that the Chinese military is preparing a nuclear missile base in the southern city of Shaoguan for their deployment.

Defence analysts have also linked several missile flight tests this year to the new weapon but no conclusive evidence has been available to date.
Adm Willard’s latest comments appear to remove any doubts. The term “initial operational capability” as used by the Pentagon indicates that some military units have started deployment of the weapon and are capable of using it.

Mr Erickson said: “Beijing has successfully developed, tested, and deployed the world’s first weapons system capable of targeting a moving carrier strike group from long-range, land-based mobile launchers.” .

Adm Willard said the new Chinese weapon was still not fully-operational and would probably undergo testing for “several more years”. The key remaining step is a comprehensive test of the entire system at sea, which is much more difficult than test flights over land.

China also needs to deploy more satellites to ensure seamless tracking of a moving target at sea. But defence experts warn that the weapon would immediately be a threat to US carriers because China could make up for a lack in accuracy by launching larger numbers of missiles.

The Financial Times Limited 2010.

================

Since quite some time I think that carriers are a weapon whichcan deal out their typical advantages only against enemies of inferior military capability, but become the more a vulnerable prey the more sophisticated the enemy's technology, range and numerical options are. Like WWII saw the shift from battleships to carriers, modern subs relativised the strength of carrier groups at sea when engaged in a direct duel. A modern missile like the 21-D, once it has been certified as fully operational under conditions at sea, can annihilate carriers at ranges were the carrrier'S fighters cannot strike back, or defend, and ship-mounted defence measures always can be overloaded by "flooding" the airspace with attackers, which already now may compansate for the still existing lacking naval reconnaissance and satellite capacity of the Chinese. But the Chinese are modernising and improving at a spectacular rate, right now already belonging to the international spearhead in military research in some areas (cyberwar, drones, stealth-drones, certain kinds of missiles). It is unlikely that the Chinese will make the mistake to not increase their satellite capacity as well.

I think we have entered the time of sunset of the carrier era, at least carriers being used against military opponents that could fight on the same eye level - and in their own territories: from a position of superiority.

Platapus · 12-29-10, 04:03 PM

The only game changer will be that the US congress will use this as a justification for increased military spending, in selected states of course, in the name of "national security".

More spending that we can't afford...

I guess it is not a game changer after all.

XabbaRus · 12-29-10, 05:05 PM

Wasn't this discussed some time ago? I'm not too sure about it as it requires pretty good up to the minute targetting info, even if it is a ballistic missile travelling many thousands of miles and hour. Give the development that ship borne ABMs have been going through in the US I would have thought that the US Navy has some counter to it.

Skybird · 12-29-10, 06:25 PM

The Dongfeng is no "new" system, but the present developement stage is more advanced than assumed, this is how I interpret the article. Note that is is now about to be fielded after several tests over this year, and now needs kind of finetuning to maritime conditions, and a supportive satellite/recce environment. It also seems to me that the Pentagon is more alarmed about it, than before, and than they admit (who wants to voluntarily admit in public that his shiny flagship platform and strategy is about to be neutralised by the opponent?). China has surprised us repeatedly over the past years with the speed of their military advancements - last but not least in the submarine area. Their modernisation programs runs faster than it was thought possible. Much faster.

That we volunztarily closed the tech gap of them and delivered them the knowhow to now run their own highly successful hightech industry, may have something to do with it. We should not complain, we got what we wanted - meaningless economic short-term profits in the past that now play no role anymore. Of course, assuming the Chinese national system and politics would change if we do business with them, was naive from the first day on. Another hurting truth that no politician is ready to admit. We got what we wanted, now we pay the price. Completely our own fault.

I still think, and also take it from the occasional odd comment in this forum, that not a few people still underestimate the Chinese military.

Quote:

Originally Posted by XabbaRus

Give the development that ship borne ABMs have been going through in the US I would have thought that the US Navy has some counter to it.

The problem is that a success rate of let's say 90% of ABM measures means nothing if the enemy is able to launch one or two or three dozens of cheap missiles (compared to an expensive carrier) of which each has the capability to destroy the carrier, completely. The 21D flight profile and navigation system also is said to be tricky to be tracked and forecasted, and is of the latest generation.

Rockstar · 12-29-10, 07:31 PM

I still think all this mess is China flexing it's muscle. Once our neighbors start believing we can't confidently project power in that area. Our influence dwindles and China becomes the big man on campus. No time like the present I'd say especially with the U.S. in two other countries already.

Air power manned or unmanned is a game changer. It's improved recon, destroyed enemy infrastructure with ease, mighty battleships have become obsolete and now it seems the carrier group is next.

12-29-10, 07:38 PM

You can wipe the enemy from the field.
But until you can actually take the ground and hold it?
You haven't done much except buy time.
What you bought may not be worth the final price paid.
If some insane fool in China did sink a U.S. Carrier with this?
I'd see a bright Glow on the Western Horizon most likely.

12-29-10, 08:31 AM	#1
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,790 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	The improved Dongfeng 21D - a game changer, analysts say From the Financial Times (text quoted via Google since their access is restricted) =========== Chinese missile shifts power in Pacific By Kathrin Hille in Beijing Published: December 28 2010 11:58 A new Chinese anti-ship missile that will significantly alter the balance of military power in the Pacific is now operational, according to a senior US commander. Admiral Robert Willard, the top US commander in the Pacific, said the Chinese ballistic missile, which was designed to threaten US aircraft carriers in the region, had reached “initial operational capability”. His remarks signal that China is challenging the US ability to project military power in Asia much sooner than many had expected. The US and other countries in the Pacific region are increasingly concerned at the speed with which China is developing its naval power. Japan, for example, recently decided to refocus its military on the potential threat from China. “So now we know – China’s [anti-ship ballistic missile] is no longer aspirational,” Andrew Erickson, an expert on the Chinese military at the US Naval War College, said in response to Adm Willard’s comments to the Asahi newspaper. Defence analysts have called the Dongfeng 21 D missile a “game changer” since it could force US aircraft carriers to stay away from waters where China does not want to see them. These include the Taiwan Strait where a potential conflict could develop over the self-ruled island which China claims. The land-based missile is designed to target and track aircraft carrier groups with the help of satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles and over-the-horizon radar. Aircraft carriers and their accompanying ships are unable to defend themselves against such a threat. Aware of the missile’s development, the Pentagon has already started considering ways to counter the new threat, including a new concept for more closely integrated navy and air force operations. Robert Gates, US defence secretary, said in September, the development of such a missile would force the Pentagon to rethink the way carriers were deployed. “If the Chinese or somebody else has a highly accurate anti-ship cruise or ballistic missile that can take out a carrier at hundreds of miles of ranges and therefore in Asia puts us back behind the second island chain, how then do you use carriers differently in the future?” Mr Gates asked. The second chain of islands runs from the Bonins along the Marianas, Guam and Palau, forming a north-south line east of Japan and the Philippines. This line defines what China sees as its “near seas” – waters in which the US navy now frequently operates and are home to US naval bases and allies such as Japan and South Korea. Adm Willard noted this year that China’s anti-ship ballistic missile was undergoing extensive testing and was close to deployment. Observers believe China started production of missile motors last year and that the Chinese military is preparing a nuclear missile base in the southern city of Shaoguan for their deployment. Defence analysts have also linked several missile flight tests this year to the new weapon but no conclusive evidence has been available to date. Adm Willard’s latest comments appear to remove any doubts. The term “initial operational capability” as used by the Pentagon indicates that some military units have started deployment of the weapon and are capable of using it. Mr Erickson said: “Beijing has successfully developed, tested, and deployed the world’s first weapons system capable of targeting a moving carrier strike group from long-range, land-based mobile launchers.” . Adm Willard said the new Chinese weapon was still not fully-operational and would probably undergo testing for “several more years”. The key remaining step is a comprehensive test of the entire system at sea, which is much more difficult than test flights over land. China also needs to deploy more satellites to ensure seamless tracking of a moving target at sea. But defence experts warn that the weapon would immediately be a threat to US carriers because China could make up for a lack in accuracy by launching larger numbers of missiles. The Financial Times Limited 2010. ================ Since quite some time I think that carriers are a weapon whichcan deal out their typical advantages only against enemies of inferior military capability, but become the more a vulnerable prey the more sophisticated the enemy's technology, range and numerical options are. Like WWII saw the shift from battleships to carriers, modern subs relativised the strength of carrier groups at sea when engaged in a direct duel. A modern missile like the 21-D, once it has been certified as fully operational under conditions at sea, can annihilate carriers at ranges were the carrrier'S fighters cannot strike back, or defend, and ship-mounted defence measures always can be overloaded by "flooding" the airspace with attackers, which already now may compansate for the still existing lacking naval reconnaissance and satellite capacity of the Chinese. But the Chinese are modernising and improving at a spectacular rate, right now already belonging to the international spearhead in military research in some areas (cyberwar, drones, stealth-drones, certain kinds of missiles). It is unlikely that the Chinese will make the mistake to not increase their satellite capacity as well. I think we have entered the time of sunset of the carrier era, at least carriers being used against military opponents that could fight on the same eye level - and in their own territories: from a position of superiority. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

12-29-10, 04:03 PM	#2
Platapus Fleet Admiral Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 19,430 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 0	The only game changer will be that the US congress will use this as a justification for increased military spending, in selected states of course, in the name of "national security". More spending that we can't afford... I guess it is not a game changer after all. __________________ abusus non tollit usum - A right should NOT be withheld from people on the basis that some tend to abuse that right.

12-29-10, 05:05 PM	#3
XabbaRus Navy Seal Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 5,330 Downloads: 5 Uploads: 0	Wasn't this discussed some time ago? I'm not too sure about it as it requires pretty good up to the minute targetting info, even if it is a ballistic missile travelling many thousands of miles and hour. Give the development that ship borne ABMs have been going through in the US I would have thought that the US Navy has some counter to it. __________________

12-29-10, 07:31 PM	#5
Rockstar In the Brig Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 12,614 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	I still think all this mess is China flexing it's muscle. Once our neighbors start believing we can't confidently project power in that area. Our influence dwindles and China becomes the big man on campus. No time like the present I'd say especially with the U.S. in two other countries already. Air power manned or unmanned is a game changer. It's improved recon, destroyed enemy infrastructure with ease, mighty battleships have become obsolete and now it seems the carrier group is next.

12-29-10, 07:38 PM	#6
Madox58 Stowaway Posts: n/a Downloads: Uploads:	You can wipe the enemy from the field. But until you can actually take the ground and hold it? You haven't done much except buy time. What you bought may not be worth the final price paid. If some insane fool in China did sink a U.S. Carrier with this? I'd see a bright Glow on the Western Horizon most likely.