The Korean fogs of war

[Skybird]

http://japanfocus.org/-JJ-Suh/3382

http://www.kpolicy.org/documents/pol...ojudgment.html

I had forgotten this story almost completely meanwhile, but got reminded of it again today when reading a German essay hinting me at those authors' names.

[Castout]

Blaming NK is the most sensible and logical thing to do in the event of Cheonan being sunk by external explosion.....with or without proof....considering the prevalent geopolitical situation and the existence of motive(as revenge to previous naval clash)...until proven otherwise or in the presence of another probable and feasible and sensible and justifiable reason that it was another party which caused it presented by either the North Koreans or otherwise!

A lot of times the answer to a question is the simplest and most obvious one until there is reason to think otherwise.

[Kazuaki Shimazaki II]

Originally Posted by Castout

Blaming NK is the most sensible and logical thing to do in the event of Cheonan being sunk by external explosion.....with or without proof....considering the prevalent geopolitical situation and the existence of motive(as revenge to previous naval clash)...until proven otherwise or in the presence of another probable and feasible and sensible and justifiable reason that it was another party which caused it presented by either the North Koreans or otherwise!

Leaving the details of the evidence (which can be faked) aside and going by motive, North Korea arguably has the least reason to do the sinking. There might be the pride factor from the naval clash but if one counts objective gains and losses, clearly they have little to gain and much to lose.

If you say America, at least you can say that the incident helps add reason to them maintaining bases in Korea and Japan. I've even heard of arguments saying that getting NK to be even more isolated would be good from a Chinese perspective. Heck, even the Japanese can say that making NK look more like a threat would be a nice excuse to bolster the SDF, which some of their factions want to do.

Besides, for the sake of argument, what exactly were the South Koreans going to do if their investigation suggests that it was the Chinese or worse, the United States that did the sinking?

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Kazuaki Shimazaki II

Leaving the details of the evidence (which can be faked) aside and going by motive, North Korea arguably has the least reason to do the sinking. There might be the pride factor from the naval clash but if one counts objective gains and losses, clearly they have little to gain and much to lose.

If you say America, at least you can say that the incident helps add reason to them maintaining bases in Korea and Japan. I've even heard of arguments saying that getting NK to be even more isolated would be good from a Chinese perspective. Heck, even the Japanese can say that making NK look more like a threat would be a nice excuse to bolster the SDF, which some of their factions want to do.

Besides, for the sake of argument, what exactly were the South Koreans going to do if their investigation suggests that it was the Chinese or worse, the United States that did the sinking?

Lets put reason aside and look at just who could do it...

We have a warship steaming near hostile waters in depths of 40 meters, at speeds around 15 knots. 15 knots is way beyond the speeds of a Swimmer Delivery Vehicle, and use of the corvette's active sonar could injure the divers. So unless the ship was mined in port with a time charge clandestine sabotage is unlikely, and I would rule out limpet mines placed in port since the DPRK is known to operated units with such capabilities so the ROKN would have defenses set up to prevent it. The waters are too shallow for a Nuclear submarine to operate in so a conventional boat would be necessary. Japanese subs are too big and would risk detection in such confined waters so that leaves a Chinese, North Korean or South Korean submarine.

I would rule out the South Koreans since that would require 30 ROKN sailors to agree to murdering their comrades, plus who knows how many shore personnel to cover up a warshot torpedo is missing.

Could the PRC do it, sure. Returning to why for a second; if the PRC wants to see North Korea more isolated they can do it them selves! The DPRK's only allies are countries like Iran and Myanmar who are not exactly in the positions to help them economically, politically or militarily.

Could the DPRK do it, yes for reasons that have been stated many times over.

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

Lets put reason aside and look at just who could do it...

We have a warship steaming near hostile waters in depths of 40 meters, at speeds around 15 knots. 15 knots is way beyond the speeds of a Swimmer Delivery Vehicle, and use of the corvette's active sonar could injure the divers. So unless the ship was mined in port with a time charge clandestine sabotage is unlikely, and I would rule out limpet mines placed in port since the DPRK is known to operated units with such capabilities so the ROKN would have defenses set up to prevent it. The waters are too shallow for a Nuclear submarine to operate in so a conventional boat would be necessary. Japanese subs are too big and would risk detection in such confined waters so that leaves a Chinese, North Korean or South Korean submarine.

I would rule out the South Koreans since that would require 30 ROKN sailors to agree to murdering their comrades, plus who knows how many shore personnel to cover up a warshot torpedo is missing.

Could the PRC do it, sure. Returning to why for a second; if the PRC wants to see North Korea more isolated they can do it them selves! The DPRK's only allies are countries like Iran and Myanmar who are not exactly in the positions to help them economically, politically or militarily.

Could the DPRK do it, yes for reasons that have been stated many times over.

it's the little green men.
nah, the great leader did it with his brain

[Kazuaki Shimazaki II]

Lets put reason aside and look at just who could do it...

We have a warship steaming near hostile waters in depths of 40 meters, at speeds around 15 knots. 15 knots is way beyond the speeds of a Swimmer Delivery Vehicle, and use of the corvette's active sonar could injure the divers. So unless the ship was mined in port with a time charge clandestine sabotage is unlikely, and I would rule out limpet mines placed in port since the DPRK is known to operated units with such capabilities so the ROKN would have defenses set up to prevent it. The waters are too shallow for a Nuclear submarine to operate in so a conventional boat would be necessary. Japanese subs are too big and would risk detection in such confined waters so that leaves a Chinese, North Korean or South Korean submarine.

1) You are considering only "above-the-board", official assets.
2) Part of surprise in combat is to use terrain that your opponent doesn't think you can use.
3) Since they were in a joint exercise, the US was likely in a fine position to know where Cheonan is going and can send in a CAPTOR-like weapon (appropriately disguised in NK colors) in advance.
4) Short of being caught completely, undeniably and publicly red-handed, the United States, compared to all the other possible participants is invulnerable politically. No one wants to accuse them. Which means they can afford to be bolder than anyone else that may be interested.

[Castout]

North Korea leaders don't use the same logic as most of the world leaders so yes they'll do it even when it would put them at disadvantage in international politics.

They are the people who run a regime which were not moved when millions of their own citizen dying of starvation and instead chose on building nuclear program.

It makes perfect sense why North Korea would want to sink a ROK warship especially when the rest of the world would think otherwise.

[tater]

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by tater

No! When I said I wanted the FROGs of war I meant these!

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

No! When I said I wanted the FROGs of war I meant these!