A real war is being mulled inside the EU and NATO - and most do not seem to care

Skybird · 08-22-20, 01:56 PM

http://translate.google.com/translat...r-fr-europa%2F

Watching this with with hawk eyes since long. There is lots of potential for a huge violent eruption in this, that will send shockwaves not just to the mediterranean region, but beyond.

And Germany once again seems to stand on the wrong side.

Jimbuna · 08-23-20, 05:11 AM

A double edged sword indeed.

I don't see the EU getting involved militarily but if it comes to that, it could potentially be more disastrous for the NATO alliance.

Skybird · 08-23-20, 05:49 AM

There are certainyl conclusions to be drawn abiout Merkel'S foeign policy. Over here it is a sometimes raised criticism about her that she has no vision and far sight, only manages situations from one day to the next, basing on grounds that she did nothing to lay out, only bedbnefits of for ther own opportunistic day-to-day managing of things. And that holds a lot of truth. She is a typical aparatschik, imo, and therefore a very helpless victim for political palyers with longterm strageies like China, or Turkey - these actor'S doings simply go beyond her radar horizon. Her loyalty to the EU is purely ideology-founded and holds no substance beyind that.

This basic trait of hers explains also a lot of those qualities she is missing. I have always seen her as hopelessly overestimated. She might have been a good hotel manager and good in delaign with the guests. But she would never have become that somebody founding and planning and constructing the hotel in the first. Too much of just a Verwaltungsangstellte (government employee, administrative officer)in her, with a Beamtenmentalität (=bureaucratic mentality?). A problem that is very widespread in Germany and explains also much of the general German Anspruchshaltung (=entitlement mentality?) n very many people.

She knows the rule sof the game. But she is incapable tot hink beyond them or beyond the game. She only opportunistically poses after having watched the plebs' mouths.

mapuc · 08-29-20, 05:19 PM

a war between Greece and Turkey seems inevitable

After the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis,
has announced that the territorial waters of the Greeks will be expanded
from 11 to 22 kilometers along the west coast of the country

And according to Swedish news

On Friday night, Ankara issued a notice that military exercises will be held northwest of Cyprus from Saturday 29/8 through 11/9.

Markus

Grumpy Pete · 08-30-20, 12:14 AM

To say the situation is precarious would be a gross understatement. The fact that Turkey is now facing a critical economic crisis only serves to ratchet tensions tighter. Faced with his current internal problems, Erdogan may believe military options could actually stabilize his control with a wavering populace. Dangerous men become doubly dangerous when their power is threatened.

I actually think he is seeking to rebuild the Ottoman Empire by drawing in the support of other Arab nations. If "Western" powers could be blamed for staring a conflict with Turkey it might well be surprising who would support Erdogan--as players line up for the spoils. Militarily Turkey is very strong. Getting support from just a few key Arab nations could upset the balance enough that the EU and even the US would not want to get involved. With problems Trump faces at home, he would be reluctant to engage in any conflict let alone one that involves another NATO country. The current political climate in the US could prevent him from taking action.

Russian involvement would probably be limited to diplomacy. Putin probably would stand to gain more by letting things happen and then trying to tap into potential rewards at the end of any conflict. His pipelines in the North would become much more valuable. Putin is pragmatic. He'll do what he thinks is more profitable with the least cost to Russia.

If the only countries willing to stand up to Turkey are France, Greece, probably Egypt and handful of other lesser powers, Erdogan would be tough to stop. His only real military weakness might be his navy. And if he really wants the US to stay out of it, a logical way to insure that is to kick off before the November elections in the US.

I really hope I'm wrong but there are just too many countries saber rattling right now. All it needs is one incident to light off the powder keg.

Skybird · 08-30-20, 06:06 AM

The Ottoman rule was quite brutal and the Arabs have not forgotten that, Erdioghans bet to win over their minds and hearts by siding with the Palestinian Arabs probbaly never had a real chance, and his attempt to make Turkey the new Islamic lead nation also has no realistic chance for that reason. With the UAE now also opening relations with Israel an showing the ever self-corrupt Palestinian arabs the stinking middle finger, the signals show where Erdoghans calculation is heading - nowehere. However the rssources int he Eastern Med are real and Turkey wants them, also, the border drawing in the Eastern med with all the tiny Greek islands that close to the Turkish mainland are indeed a bit insane and a never resting source of quarrel and anger. Turkey's enaggement in syria and Libya have to be seen as supportive efforts for military action around Cyprus, where claism are made by the eU, Israel, Malto, Egypt, Greece, Turkey. The Turkish role in cyprus always was imo that of the bad boy, the claims they made over and on cyprus imo always were criminal/illegal and gorunded exclsuively on thge use of military power.

The eU still thinks Erdoghan bluffes. I think they are wrong, Erdioghan is very well willing to use military force and wage war there.

In a way it would be a relief because then even the kost sleepy hesitent blokehead at NATO finally should relaise that Turkey can no longer be held as a NATO "member" whcih already now they are not anymore, but they are a poisonous wound in NATO's southern flank, and speak with split tongues. The amy conflcits and diliokatic rifts between Turkey and Washington in recent years, speak volumes. One of Merkel's biggets failures, if not potlicla crimes, was to endlessly lead Germany and Eope into deeper depenbdency from Turkey'S good will regarduing mass migration, and endlessly avpiding Turksih EU membership as a no go.

I spae myself formmentioning oen again the many massive interference sof the Turksih stae in the inner poltics of Germany.

The Turkish land army is strong. The Greek land army has many tanks, but years ago it was reported they are hopelessly undersupplied in ammuntiion, especially tank ammunition.Many tanks back then - had NONE assigned. I do not know about their air forces, who they would compare. The Turkish fleet probabaly is the weakest part of the Turkish military. In how far the financial turmoils of the past 15 years have hampered the readiness of Greek forces, I also do not know. That Turkey bought very modern Russian air defences recently shows that they have eyed this confrontation since longer time. It was never abiout defences agaunst Syria LOL. Syria has more reason to want to defend against Turkey, because Turkey is the attacker in their fighting.

At home Erdoghan is under pressure. And triggering distraction by launching an external war is a recipe that many autocrats and dictators before him already have tried.

The Wets realyl has to learn to not see Turkey as an ally. It is not, and already since a long time. They play foul on us. With Erdoghan's arrival, everything changed. Attatürk's legacy is dead. Since many years already.

JU_88 · 09-03-20, 08:27 AM

Agree with Jim, Nato and EU is all bark and no bite these days, they'll express some condemnation, threaten fines or sanctions, but ultimatley if it kicks off they will do what they always do: squabble about it and then do nothing. The Eu and Nato would be more likley allow them selves to collapes than decisivley picking sides in that battle. Both are very weak.
the US won't care and as they are too tied up with national / internal problems at present.
Russia will probably sit back and watch for any opportunity or threat to Russian interests. but will other wise remain quiet and make what preparations they need to.

Mr Quatro · 09-24-20, 09:23 AM

I couldn't find a thread about Turkish problems with the Kurds so here's the start of a real war brewing right under our noses.

I point to this article for it's truth that Turkey is on the path to destruction, plus with a National Election coming up for President Trump we will be caught in the middle of a Kurdish oil field stand off.

Remember how the democrats cried last year "Oh we should defend out Kurdish friends for helping us win the Iraq war."

So what would Biden say if war should break out over a Kurdish/Turkey/Syrian/Russian/USA conflict before the election?

Yes, I say war drums are beating that could include US armed forces caught in the middle against Russian armed forces protecting Syria and supposedly friends with Turkey and on top of that the Kurds have been seen in recent days conferring with Russia for assistance.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/mi...-turkey-168609

Quote:

As Turkey’s economy teeters, Erdoğan has become increasingly belligerent toward his neighbors. Bombing Iraq—especially the largely Yazidi Sinjar area—has become a frequent occurrence. Turkey airlifted Islamic State veterans to Libya and has violated Libya’s arms embargo multiple times. Turkey justified its invasion of northern and eastern Syria as creating a safe-haven but, in reality, it has instead become a zone for anti-Kurdish ethnic cleansing.

Now Erdoğan is threatening Greece. “When the moment for a decision comes, and I say this clearly, those who stand against Turkey at the expense of jeopardizing the security and prosperity of its citizens, have to pay a heavy price,” Erdoğan said on September 7. Mesut Hakkı Caşın, a close Erdoğan advisor, threatened, “Our pilots will soon shoot down five or six of them [Greek warplanes] and we will enter into a war.” He suggested Turks would then bayonet the pilots.

mapuc · 09-24-20, 01:57 PM

I knew that some of my friends had started threads about this.

Here's one of them

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...d.php?t=246496

Markus

Mr Quatro · 09-24-20, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

I knew that some of my friends had started threads about this.

Here's one of them

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...d.php?t=246496

Markus

I didn't know this had been a topic before ... so now what?

Merge or wait for the explosion of seed thoughts to manifest?

mapuc · 09-24-20, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

I didn't know this had been a topic before ... so now what?

Merge or wait for the explosion of seed thoughts to manifest?

I hope they will come to they sense and sit down and find a solution.
If a war comes between Turkey and Greece

EU...they will try to sit on two chair.

NATO...Don't know how they will react, when two members are at war against each other-Maybe others can give a more detailed input.

Markus

Jimbuna · 09-25-20, 12:06 PM

Threads merged.

Jimbuna · 09-29-20, 11:32 AM

Turkey may well be flexing her muscles in more than one theatre of operations.

Quote:

Armenia says one of its fighter jets was shot down by a Turkish jet, in a major escalation in the conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The Armenian foreign ministry said the pilot of the Soviet-made SU-25 died after being hit by the Turkish F-16 in Armenian air space.
Turkey, which is backing Azerbaijan in the conflict, has denied the claim.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54345622

mapuc · 09-29-20, 12:30 PM

What is Turkey up to ??

Markus

Rockstar · 09-29-20, 05:20 PM

My thoughts are Erdogan's rhetoric is geared towards strengthening his political position at home and in the eyes of his regional allies. He may also be sabre rattling hoping the E.U. will come to the negotiating table where he may want to try and persuade them to open the border again to the refugees piling up in Turkey.

As for threats of war and jihad its nothing new, he's been talking that smack for a few years now.

https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/haddi...FkuxQ8wPZXUGfQ

08-22-20, 01:56 PM	#1
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	A real war is being mulled inside the EU and NATO - and most do not seem to care http://translate.google.com/translat...r-fr-europa%2F Watching this with with hawk eyes since long. There is lots of potential for a huge violent eruption in this, that will send shockwaves not just to the mediterranean region, but beyond. And Germany once again seems to stand on the wrong side. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

08-23-20, 05:11 AM	#2
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,473 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	A double edged sword indeed. I don't see the EU getting involved militarily but if it comes to that, it could potentially be more disastrous for the NATO alliance. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!

08-23-20, 05:49 AM	#3
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	There are certainyl conclusions to be drawn abiout Merkel'S foeign policy. Over here it is a sometimes raised criticism about her that she has no vision and far sight, only manages situations from one day to the next, basing on grounds that she did nothing to lay out, only bedbnefits of for ther own opportunistic day-to-day managing of things. And that holds a lot of truth. She is a typical aparatschik, imo, and therefore a very helpless victim for political palyers with longterm strageies like China, or Turkey - these actor'S doings simply go beyond her radar horizon. Her loyalty to the EU is purely ideology-founded and holds no substance beyind that. This basic trait of hers explains also a lot of those qualities she is missing. I have always seen her as hopelessly overestimated. She might have been a good hotel manager and good in delaign with the guests. But she would never have become that somebody founding and planning and constructing the hotel in the first. Too much of just a Verwaltungsangstellte (government employee, administrative officer)in her, with a Beamtenmentalität (=bureaucratic mentality?). A problem that is very widespread in Germany and explains also much of the general German Anspruchshaltung (=entitlement mentality?) n very many people. She knows the rule sof the game. But she is incapable tot hink beyond them or beyond the game. She only opportunistically poses after having watched the plebs' mouths. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

08-30-20, 06:06 AM	#6
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	The Ottoman rule was quite brutal and the Arabs have not forgotten that, Erdioghans bet to win over their minds and hearts by siding with the Palestinian Arabs probbaly never had a real chance, and his attempt to make Turkey the new Islamic lead nation also has no realistic chance for that reason. With the UAE now also opening relations with Israel an showing the ever self-corrupt Palestinian arabs the stinking middle finger, the signals show where Erdoghans calculation is heading - nowehere. However the rssources int he Eastern Med are real and Turkey wants them, also, the border drawing in the Eastern med with all the tiny Greek islands that close to the Turkish mainland are indeed a bit insane and a never resting source of quarrel and anger. Turkey's enaggement in syria and Libya have to be seen as supportive efforts for military action around Cyprus, where claism are made by the eU, Israel, Malto, Egypt, Greece, Turkey. The Turkish role in cyprus always was imo that of the bad boy, the claims they made over and on cyprus imo always were criminal/illegal and gorunded exclsuively on thge use of military power. The eU still thinks Erdoghan bluffes. I think they are wrong, Erdioghan is very well willing to use military force and wage war there. In a way it would be a relief because then even the kost sleepy hesitent blokehead at NATO finally should relaise that Turkey can no longer be held as a NATO "member" whcih already now they are not anymore, but they are a poisonous wound in NATO's southern flank, and speak with split tongues. The amy conflcits and diliokatic rifts between Turkey and Washington in recent years, speak volumes. One of Merkel's biggets failures, if not potlicla crimes, was to endlessly lead Germany and Eope into deeper depenbdency from Turkey'S good will regarduing mass migration, and endlessly avpiding Turksih EU membership as a no go. I spae myself formmentioning oen again the many massive interference sof the Turksih stae in the inner poltics of Germany. The Turkish land army is strong. The Greek land army has many tanks, but years ago it was reported they are hopelessly undersupplied in ammuntiion, especially tank ammunition.Many tanks back then - had NONE assigned. I do not know about their air forces, who they would compare. The Turkish fleet probabaly is the weakest part of the Turkish military. In how far the financial turmoils of the past 15 years have hampered the readiness of Greek forces, I also do not know. That Turkey bought very modern Russian air defences recently shows that they have eyed this confrontation since longer time. It was never abiout defences agaunst Syria LOL. Syria has more reason to want to defend against Turkey, because Turkey is the attacker in their fighting. At home Erdoghan is under pressure. And triggering distraction by launching an external war is a recipe that many autocrats and dictators before him already have tried. The Wets realyl has to learn to not see Turkey as an ally. It is not, and already since a long time. They play foul on us. With Erdoghan's arrival, everything changed. Attatürk's legacy is dead. Since many years already. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

09-25-20, 12:06 PM	#12
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,473 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	Threads merged. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!

08-29-20, 05:19 PM	#4
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,535 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	a war between Greece and Turkey seems inevitable After the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has announced that the territorial waters of the Greeks will be expanded from 11 to 22 kilometers along the west coast of the country And according to Swedish news On Friday night, Ankara issued a notice that military exercises will be held northwest of Cyprus from Saturday 29/8 through 11/9. Markus

08-30-20, 12:14 AM	#5
Grumpy Pete Shore leave Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 70 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	To say the situation is precarious would be a gross understatement. The fact that Turkey is now facing a critical economic crisis only serves to ratchet tensions tighter. Faced with his current internal problems, Erdogan may believe military options could actually stabilize his control with a wavering populace. Dangerous men become doubly dangerous when their power is threatened. I actually think he is seeking to rebuild the Ottoman Empire by drawing in the support of other Arab nations. If "Western" powers could be blamed for staring a conflict with Turkey it might well be surprising who would support Erdogan--as players line up for the spoils. Militarily Turkey is very strong. Getting support from just a few key Arab nations could upset the balance enough that the EU and even the US would not want to get involved. With problems Trump faces at home, he would be reluctant to engage in any conflict let alone one that involves another NATO country. The current political climate in the US could prevent him from taking action. Russian involvement would probably be limited to diplomacy. Putin probably would stand to gain more by letting things happen and then trying to tap into potential rewards at the end of any conflict. His pipelines in the North would become much more valuable. Putin is pragmatic. He'll do what he thinks is more profitable with the least cost to Russia. If the only countries willing to stand up to Turkey are France, Greece, probably Egypt and handful of other lesser powers, Erdogan would be tough to stop. His only real military weakness might be his navy. And if he really wants the US to stay out of it, a logical way to insure that is to kick off before the November elections in the US. I really hope I'm wrong but there are just too many countries saber rattling right now. All it needs is one incident to light off the powder keg.

09-03-20, 08:27 AM	#7
JU_88 Silent Hunter Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: UK Posts: 3,803 Downloads: 11 Uploads: 0	Agree with Jim, Nato and EU is all bark and no bite these days, they'll express some condemnation, threaten fines or sanctions, but ultimatley if it kicks off they will do what they always do: squabble about it and then do nothing. The Eu and Nato would be more likley allow them selves to collapes than decisivley picking sides in that battle. Both are very weak. the US won't care and as they are too tied up with national / internal problems at present. Russia will probably sit back and watch for any opportunity or threat to Russian interests. but will other wise remain quiet and make what preparations they need to.

09-24-20, 01:57 PM	#9
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,535 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	I knew that some of my friends had started threads about this. Here's one of them https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...d.php?t=246496 Markus

09-29-20, 12:30 PM	#14
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,535 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	What is Turkey up to ?? Markus

09-29-20, 05:20 PM	#15
Rockstar In the Brig Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 12,614 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	My thoughts are Erdogan's rhetoric is geared towards strengthening his political position at home and in the eyes of his regional allies. He may also be sabre rattling hoping the E.U. will come to the negotiating table where he may want to try and persuade them to open the border again to the refugees piling up in Turkey. As for threats of war and jihad its nothing new, he's been talking that smack for a few years now. https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/haddi...FkuxQ8wPZXUGfQ