IAEA Safeguard Inspector assess Iran

[Skybird]

https://translate.google.com/transla...nds&edit-text=


Europe's opportunistic optimism can be safely rated as a crime against mankind. Iran ambitions for nuclear tehcnology by all what they do show, reveal and prove that they are ofert the military use of it.Not just "civilian use of nuclear tehcnology". It has never been different, and it is not different now, and is not planned to ever become different.

Why did the 5 + 1 signers participate in the game? One has to assume that here either real ignorance or „purposefulness“ prevailed. Because the 5 + 1 are also interested in undisturbed trade relations with Iran. And that with the bomb will not be so bad. Did Federica Mogherini, the high representative of the EU, know exactly what she was signing? She studied Philosophical Sciences and started her political career at the Youth Organization of the Communist Party of Italy. But surely she had a top-class team of experts in the background. The liberated trade with Iran was celebrated by Obama with the transfer of part of the now thawed Iranian assets; it was a first tranche of $ 1.7 billion, at the recipient’s request in cash. That’s 17 million banknotes of $ 100 each. It is allegedly the desired form of payment to buy the necessary equipment for nuclear projects from AQ Kahn in Pakistan, such as ballistic missiles or electric detonation systems for warheads. Good, if you have to get the cash for such a purchase then not only from the ATM.

(...)
This good impression was disturbed in early 2018 when Israeli intelligence in Iran came across documents that unequivocally revealed the military nature of the nuclear program. Among them was a PowerPoint presentation, apparently intended for policymakers, in which scientists report on plans to design, build and test five atomic bombs of 10 kilotons each, as well as suitable launchers.
Although the documents were dismissed as obsolete, they nevertheless constituted a breach of the contract that required the handover of all pre-JCPOA documents to the IAEA. This finding, as well as obvious efforts to acquire rockets were reason for the US to terminate the agreement. From August 2018, severe trade sanctions were again imposed - not only against Iran, but against any companies that are now still doing business with the country.
The acclaimed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was thus in smoke, which did not prevent the governments of the remaining „4 + 1“, however, to emphasize that they would hold on to the agreement in any case.

You shall not arm an exporter and financier of Muslim global terrorism with nuclear weapons. What brain-extracted scumbags rule Europe that they rate money profits higher than this good, reasonable, vital advise?

[Skybird]

And at New York, Netanyahu just has accused Iran of a secret nuclear storage site in Teheran.



https://translate.google.com/transla...tml&edit-text=



More scruples to bomb it out of there, that's the calculation behind that, like Hezbollah hides ammo dumps and command posts under schools and in buildings with civilian infrastructure.

[Jimbuna]

Israel could well be paying someone a 'flying' visit pretty soon perhaps.

[Skybird]

Iran is even for Israel a big bite and a long jump. And as Syria gets S-300s right to deny the IAF area access, advanced Russian air defence showing up in Iran as well imo are only a question of time. In fact they are already there. They already have S-20c since 2016 - LINK - and got provided an advanced command HQ for Iran's AD this year. It is operational since two or three months.

On other news I read that Iran also got S-300 already in 2017. They did not say which version. The latest of it seem to be very capable, non-fully-stealthed aircraft may find it difficult to defeat it. And even stealthed aircraft are whsipered behind raise dhands to be anything but untouchable for latest systems like modern S-300 and S-400.

Or did anyone think the Russians would not try hard to react to the building of the F-35?


Anyhow, striking Iran without massive Americna help might be too much even for Israel these days. Wasn't this in the making some years ago, and failed due to American rejection?

[ikalugin]

From what I remember Iran got Syrian order S-300-PMU-2 which is the newest mod of that line bar the S-400.


Syria would also get the same PMU-2 mod from what I understand, however the greater factor would be how Syria would get modern C4 means and thus create an actual IADS (and avoid the future RED on RED incidents).

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

From what I remember Iran got Syrian order S-300-PMU-2 which is the newest mod of that line bar the S-400.


Syria would also get the same PMU-2 mod from what I understand, however the greater factor would be how Syria would get modern C4 means and thus create an actual IADS (and avoid the future RED on RED incidents).

Today's unmanned drones are not afraid of S-300-PMU-2's after the drones are shot down come the Hornets F-18's and then to add to the confusion come the cruise missiles from Israel's long range SSK submarines. After that it becomes a land war with the UN yelling stop stop

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

Today's unmanned drones are not afraid of S-300-PMU-2's after the drones are shot down come the Hornets F-18's and then to add to the confusion come the cruise missiles from Israel's long range SSK submarines. After that it becomes a land war with the UN yelling stop stop

Yet as the IL-20 incident shows the non mobile S-200 sites still live, even after shooting down an Israeli aircraft and "half of Syrian air defense system" being destroyed.


I think between mobility, decoys and land based ECM the PMUs would surivive just fine and deny the air to manned platforms, especially now that they actually have the means to C&C this whole mess. And I think Israel would just suck it up and deal with it, by shifting back to using the true stand off weapons.
Because we all know how the war between two nuclear armed states would end.

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

...to add to the confusion come the cruise missiles from Israel's long range SSK submarines.

Another German submarine from HDW/TKMS...

Originally Posted by Bleiente

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine

[ikalugin]

Good subs, probably the only real survivable part of their triad.

[Skybird]

5 x 10kt bombs is Iran's aim, the article says. Considering the size of Israel, that is overkill capacity, when taking fallout effects into account as well. Even just one bomb could, if wind stands badly, end Israel's existence as a functioning, inhabitable state.


Also, the resources of Israel are very limited, due to its smallness. Its military ressources as well.


And as Herman van Creveld gets not tired to point out, the nimbus of invincibility of Israel, the robustness and competence of its ground forces, the determination, are in doubt. This is not the Israel of the founding era or the past big wars with its Arab neighbours. We already saw that during the last Lebanon war. Compared to earlier times, so says Creveld, they have become soft. A mentality problem as well. In favour of Israel speaks the intellectual cleverness of its people, and engineers. They take equipment from America or Germany - and make it better. Against it speaks that the wide availability of modern technology shrinks their technological lead over hostile neighbours, and brings it into their reach nevertheless. One of the reasons why van Creveld is so much disliked in Israel is that he speaks this out quite frankly, saying that in the long term israel's strategic position is so exposed that it becomes more and more unsustainable with time going by. With an Islamophile anti-Israeli UN and nuclear wepaons spreading in the region, nothing good can come from this.

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Good subs, probably the only real survivable part of their triad.

I guess you mean explicitly the problems of the German Federal Navy.
These difficulties can be attributed to the German political leadership alone.
The Schildbürger in Berlin found it particularly smart to buy the boats of the type 212A without the necessary maintenance contracts, because you could eventually save 300 million per boat.

HDW aka TKMS had discouraged this and categorically rejected a "just in time" model.

So it's not the devices - they are extremely good.

[ikalugin]

No, I meant that the Israeli submarines are the only survivable part of their nuclear triad, which would not be as vulnerable to a damage limitation strike by say Russia.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Skybird

5 x 10kt bombs is Iran's aim, the article says. Considering the size of Israel, that is overkill capacity, when taking fallout effects into account as well. Even just one bomb could, if wind stands badly, end Israel's existence as a functioning, inhabitable state.


Also, the resources of Israel are very limited, due to its smallness. Its military ressources as well.

You want significantly more than 5*10kt weapons for a dammage limitation strike.

[Skybird]

To contaminate a country that spans over roughly 360 (N-S) x 80 (W-E) km (most of that beign the empty desert in the South), and has the vast majority of its industrial and business and science and population centres concentrated in an area of just around one third of that, a single 10 kt is more than sufficient if the wind plays ball and you maybe even build a bomb such that it maximises the contamination effect by intention.


The radiation present in Fukushima is much, much less than what you expect in case of a 10 kt detonation.


Also, 5 such bombs are enough to immediately bring life in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ashdod, Petah Tikva and Reshon Leziyyon to a lasting end, becasue the fallout at place would be such that even those not beign directly affected by blast and fire would not be able to stay and hold out in the coming years. These are the five biggest cities after Jerusalem. 1.3 million people alltogether just in these five cities. Thats roughly one seventh of the total population.


BTW, who says that once Iran got 5 x 10kt, they would not get appetite for more and bigger candy? And delivering nuke tech to terror organizations for suitcase dirty bombs?

[ikalugin]

I wasn’t talking about the counter value strikes, I was talking about damage limitation strikes.