MS804

Oberon · 05-19-16, 02:10 AM

An Egyptair flight from Paris to Cairo has disappeared from radar and has likely gone down in the Mediterrainean at some point between Cyprus and Egypt.

Live updates from the Beeb here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36328976

I have a horrid feeling that the mods will be able to roll this over into the 'All Purpose Terrorism' thread in the near future given the aircrafts departure and destination points, but for now I'll put this seperately.

Catfish · 05-19-16, 02:13 AM

Just read this..

Sources i read spoke of three persons belonging to security personnel, onboard.

And the other malaysian plane that went missing in indonesian/chinese waters some months ago has not been found up to now, and nobody knows what happened?

Maybe time for a better transponder/positioning device fitted to passenger planes.

Oberon · 05-19-16, 02:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

And the other malaysian plane that went missing in indonesian/chinese waters some months ago has not been found up to now, and nobody knows what happened?

Maybe time for a better transponder/positioning device fitted to passenger planes.

They have found bits of wreckage of MH370, but probably not enough to actually determine the cause of the aircrafts loss.

Sadly, some aircraft losses will remain a mystery, heck, there's an entire Boeing 727 that someone stole which has been missing for 13 years.

Jimbuna · 05-19-16, 05:46 AM

The more incidents I learn of such as this reminds me of my lad who insists on only flying BA on his regular travels.

That is his mindset anyway.

Onkel Neal · 05-19-16, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oberon

An Egyptair flight from Paris to Cairo has disappeared from radar and has likely gone down in the Mediterrainean at some point between Cyprus and Egypt.

Live updates from the Beeb here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36328976

I have a horrid feeling that the mods will be able to roll this over into the 'All Purpose Terrorism' thread in the near future given the aircrafts departure and destination points, but for now I'll put this seperately.

Why is it a "horrid" feeling?

Schroeder · 05-19-16, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Why is it a "horrid" feeling?

The horrid feeling is that this might not have been an accident but a terror strike.

Catfish · 05-19-16, 09:09 AM

^ Some egyptian officials have just said that, but no evidence published (yet).

Onkel Neal · 05-19-16, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schroeder

The horrid feeling is that this might not have been an accident but a terror strike.

I misread it, my apologies

Skybird · 05-19-16, 11:23 AM

Me too thinks a terror strike is the most likely scenario, for two reasons.

First, if there is no distress call that got sent, whatever happened must have happened very fast. Engine fires and malfunctions usually do not lead that quickly to penultimate desaster that pilot and copilt cannot even release an emergency call. Which leaves some kind of explosive decompression as the top explanation.

Second, we are approaching summer holidays slowly but surely, and a major international sports event. And Muslim terror is locked in a fight with the Egyptian state for which tourism is a major source of income. Any attack reducing that income, is a blow to the Egyptian state.

Also there already have been attempted and successful attacks on airliners in Egypt recently.

From a Muslim terrorists POV , the chosen target makes sense. Plus revenge for Mursi and the MB, and all that.

Russian FSB also claims it to be a terror strike, but gives no evidence.

Other scenarios are possible explanations as well at this point of time. But the terror theory has the highest realistic probability of all possible scenarios one could imagine, currently. And the aircraft model, an A320, has a remarkable technical reliability record.

Oberon · 05-19-16, 12:17 PM

Yeah, I think that it is the most likely explanation, however there are a lot of questions which hold me off being absolutely sure, the descent spiral just before the plunge into the sea and the fact that it took off from Charles de Gaulle airport and headed towards Egypt rather than the other way around.
Given that France has received two terror attacks and there's been an attack on a European airport fairly recently you'd expect security to be pretty tight at Charles de Gaulle.
The descent spiral, as shown in this Beeb graphic:

seem as though perhaps someone was still trying to keep control of it, however it's equally just possible that this was just the way the wind was affecting the aircrafts glide path as it descended out of control.

Sadly terrorism is the most likely option, although it is strange that no-one has claimed responsibility for it yet, normally Daesh and their ilk are all over something like this but they've been quiet, I guess it's possible that they're holding back while their operative gets clear, but who can say?

Either which way, a very tragic day.

Catfish · 05-20-16, 03:37 AM

There was that Air France Flight from South America. Ice had rendered all tachometer devices useless, and the autopilot tried to counter with the data it received. When the jet lost altitude it gave positive elevator control and the nose went up until stalling.
The pilots did not know what was going on and were not able to switch from automatic to manual steering. A stall, drop and circling could be a hint for a similar technical failure.
Just saying.

Von Due · 05-20-16, 04:53 AM

Until they find some hard evidence, it might be a good idea, like been posted above, to think of all the things that can lead to something like this.

Deliberate actions by crew: A flight engineer attacked both pilots of Federal Express flight 705 with hammer and speargun in murder/suicide attempt. The pilots did successfully return though and the guy was arrested, tried and sentenced. Germanwings Flight 9525 saw the pilot commit murder/suicide.

Malfunctions. It is possible albeit extremely unlikely that the plane lost all electric power/radio/communications for some bizarre reason. Ice can cause sudden crashes. Ground maintenance errors like forgetting to remove duct tape covering the pitot tubes.

Structural: Airliners have disintegrated for no immediate apparent reason while in the air before. Comet, the first jet airliner (design flaw), China Airlines flight 611 (improper, previous repairs) and more.

Terrorism: Is a candidate too.

Oberon · 05-20-16, 07:13 AM

A good summary there Von Due, hopefully now that they've located some of the wreckage from the flight they'll be able to narrow down the search area and locate the FDR.

Jimbuna · 05-20-16, 07:33 AM

EgyptAir crash: Debris found from flight MS804

Quote:

Debris from the missing EgyptAir flight has been found floating in the Mediterranean, Egyptian officials say.
Flight MS804 was en route from Paris to Cairo with 66 passengers and crew when it vanished early on Thursday.
Egypt's army spokesman said wreckage and passenger belongings were found 290km (180 miles) from Alexandria.
Greek Defence Minister Panos Kammenos said a body part, two seats and at least one suitcase had been found.
The items were found slightly to the south of the area where the plane disappeared from radars on Thursday, Mr Kammenos said.
The search is now focused on finding the plane's flight recorders, the Associated Press news agency reports.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36339614

Aktungbby · 05-20-16, 09:10 AM

With Von Due's summary in mind, I'm thinking massive tail/rudder failure a with AirAsia in 2014 and a rudder loss-combined with off-auto manual flying of the aircraft by the desperate pilot in extreme circumstances. Inasmuch as the 'dog is not barking'; no organization is taking 'credit' for a terrorist operation. That is not their usual modus operendi. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2015/12/01/harsh-truths-about-crash-of-airasia-qz8501-come-out/ Also:

Quote:

March 2005: Air Transat Flight 961, an Airbus A310-308, en route from Cuba to Quebec City with nine crew and 261 passengers on board, experienced a structural failure in which the rudder detached in flight. The aircraft returned to Varadero, Cuba, where they made a safe landing. The crew made no unusual rudder inputs during the flight nor was the rudder being manipulated when it failed; there was no obvious fault in the rudder or yaw-damper system. Subsequent investigation determined that Airbus' inspection procedure for the composite rudder was inadequate; inspection procedures for composite structures on airliners were changed following this accident.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A310

05-19-16, 02:10 AM	#1
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	MS804 An Egyptair flight from Paris to Cairo has disappeared from radar and has likely gone down in the Mediterrainean at some point between Cyprus and Egypt. Live updates from the Beeb here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36328976 I have a horrid feeling that the mods will be able to roll this over into the 'All Purpose Terrorism' thread in the near future given the aircrafts departure and destination points, but for now I'll put this seperately.

05-19-16, 02:13 AM	#2
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,765 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	Just read this.. Sources i read spoke of three persons belonging to security personnel, onboard. And the other malaysian plane that went missing in indonesian/chinese waters some months ago has not been found up to now, and nobody knows what happened? Maybe time for a better transponder/positioning device fitted to passenger planes. __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

05-19-16, 05:46 AM	#4
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,473 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	The more incidents I learn of such as this reminds me of my lad who insists on only flying BA on his regular travels. That is his mindset anyway. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!

05-19-16, 09:09 AM	#7
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,765 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	^ Some egyptian officials have just said that, but no evidence published (yet). __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

05-19-16, 11:23 AM	#9
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,603 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Me too thinks a terror strike is the most likely scenario, for two reasons. First, if there is no distress call that got sent, whatever happened must have happened very fast. Engine fires and malfunctions usually do not lead that quickly to penultimate desaster that pilot and copilt cannot even release an emergency call. Which leaves some kind of explosive decompression as the top explanation. Second, we are approaching summer holidays slowly but surely, and a major international sports event. And Muslim terror is locked in a fight with the Egyptian state for which tourism is a major source of income. Any attack reducing that income, is a blow to the Egyptian state. Also there already have been attempted and successful attacks on airliners in Egypt recently. From a Muslim terrorists POV , the chosen target makes sense. Plus revenge for Mursi and the MB, and all that. Russian FSB also claims it to be a terror strike, but gives no evidence. Other scenarios are possible explanations as well at this point of time. But the terror theory has the highest realistic probability of all possible scenarios one could imagine, currently. And the aircraft model, an A320, has a remarkable technical reliability record. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

05-19-16, 12:17 PM	#10
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	Yeah, I think that it is the most likely explanation, however there are a lot of questions which hold me off being absolutely sure, the descent spiral just before the plunge into the sea and the fact that it took off from Charles de Gaulle airport and headed towards Egypt rather than the other way around. Given that France has received two terror attacks and there's been an attack on a European airport fairly recently you'd expect security to be pretty tight at Charles de Gaulle. The descent spiral, as shown in this Beeb graphic: seem as though perhaps someone was still trying to keep control of it, however it's equally just possible that this was just the way the wind was affecting the aircrafts glide path as it descended out of control. Sadly terrorism is the most likely option, although it is strange that no-one has claimed responsibility for it yet, normally Daesh and their ilk are all over something like this but they've been quiet, I guess it's possible that they're holding back while their operative gets clear, but who can say? Either which way, a very tragic day.

05-20-16, 03:37 AM	#11
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,765 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	There was that Air France Flight from South America. Ice had rendered all tachometer devices useless, and the autopilot tried to counter with the data it received. When the jet lost altitude it gave positive elevator control and the nose went up until stalling. The pilots did not know what was going on and were not able to switch from automatic to manual steering. A stall, drop and circling could be a hint for a similar technical failure. Just saying. __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

05-20-16, 04:53 AM	#12
Von Due Sea Lord Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,690 Downloads: 30 Uploads: 0	Until they find some hard evidence, it might be a good idea, like been posted above, to think of all the things that can lead to something like this. Deliberate actions by crew: A flight engineer attacked both pilots of Federal Express flight 705 with hammer and speargun in murder/suicide attempt. The pilots did successfully return though and the guy was arrested, tried and sentenced. Germanwings Flight 9525 saw the pilot commit murder/suicide. Malfunctions. It is possible albeit extremely unlikely that the plane lost all electric power/radio/communications for some bizarre reason. Ice can cause sudden crashes. Ground maintenance errors like forgetting to remove duct tape covering the pitot tubes. Structural: Airliners have disintegrated for no immediate apparent reason while in the air before. Comet, the first jet airliner (design flaw), China Airlines flight 611 (improper, previous repairs) and more. Terrorism: Is a candidate too. Last edited by Von Due; 05-20-16 at 12:51 PM. Reason: Silly typo

05-20-16, 07:13 AM	#13
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	A good summary there Von Due, hopefully now that they've located some of the wreckage from the flight they'll be able to narrow down the search area and locate the FDR.