Brexit ?

[Dan D]

Cameron's plan to reform the EU was unsuccessful.

What does that mean for the EU referendum which is to be held in the UK in June?

It has become more likely that the UK leaves the EU because Cameron, who actually wants the UK to stay in the EU, is now in the position that

a) he has to explain to the voters that already by now it is beneficial for the UK to stay in the EU despite his reform plans have failed

or

b) he keeps claiming that he successfully reformed the EU which the voters won't buy from him.

Especially scenario b) bears the risk that the EU referendum mutates into a referendum for or against Cameron instead of for or against Brexit.

It has not become easier for Cameron to keep the UK in the EU.


Btw, what would that mean if the UK leaves the EU?

It has 7 alternatives to EU membership as described here:
http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/a...-eu-membership

I've seen no evidence that Cameron actually had a plan to 'reform the EU'. His plan seems to have been to talk tough, and maybe wheedle a few minor concessions out of other EU members - the objective being to present an appearance of having 'won', and to convince enough undecided voters that it is worth staying in. Which he of course wants, because the political paymasters of the Tory party - big business - know full well that leaving the EU would result in a large drop in profits.

Personally, I've yet to make my mind up which way to vote in the referendum - or even whether to vote at all. The EU is undemocratic, bureaucratic, and frequently corrupt - but none of the alternatives offered by the anti-EU mob actually any prospect of more democracy, less bureaucracy, or less corruption - merely the replacement of foreigners with locals doing the same 'job', while leaving the economy on just as shaky ground, if not more so...

[MGR1]

Regardless of which way the vote goes, it'll hurt and also be very divisive. In more ways than one.

The UK may not survive in it's current form, either.

Mike.

[Oberon]

It's going to be a real political hot potato over here in the coming months, at the moment I'd say that the national mood is in favour of exit, but not by much, there's a lot of confusion and a lot of fear-mongering by both sides in regards to the subject.
A lot of the main emotion is over sovereignty, I think that being an island nation we've never taken very well to being told what to do by, well, pretty much anyone. When you add the Migrant Crisis and the EUs 'Rabbit in the headlights' solution in dealing with it, and the Eurozone crisis before that, there's not been a lot of positive publicity in European and British media regarding the EU, and it's the media that makes 9/10s of the decision.

Personally I think that we will be poorer off outside of the EU, especially economically, however there's a large part of me that is wondering whether the UK exiting now may well be a case of getting to the first lifeboats before the ship sinks. If the EU can't get a handle on the migrant crisis, with the EU parliament packed with Euro-sceptics, with Poland going far right and most of the Eastern European nations already there, with Greece on the verge of collapse from inability to handle the sheer number of migrants coming into it, and Italy not far behind. Spain cannot form a government, Germanys government is almost as popular as Adolf Hitlers, and France isn't quite sure what way to turn.
Perhaps building a firewall between us and Europe might be a better option for self-preservation, although if we do leave the EU and the EU does eventually collapse then European nations are going to have to realise that they are in the dustbin of history, and that their opinion means absolutely nothing on the world stage because as individual nations they have as much power as a mosquito compared to the elephants of Russia, China and America (even those elephants are on unicycles on a tightrope which is fraying badly).

It will be a sad sad day to see the EU fail, it was a great experiment, and the idea behind it was in my opinion, good. However you can't get rid of 2000 odd years of nationalism, and conflict so easily.

I just hope that NATO holds together as well.

[MGR1]

Originally Posted by Oberon

It's going to be a real political hot potato over here in the coming months, at the moment I'd say that the national mood is in favour of exit, but not by much, there's a lot of confusion and a lot of fear-mongering by both sides in regards to the subject.

Sentiment in Scotland is a bit different from what seems to be happening in England: LINK. With the usual caveats about polling data, but the general feeling seems to be for remain.

This is a rough guess, but since Scotland hasn't been a sovereign country since 1707, swapping Westminster for Brussels doesn't really make that much of a difference to most people. Assuming they actually think about it.

Besides, the EU Referendum is of secondary importance to Scotland's political class at the moment, the major story is the ongoing negotiations for increased fiscal powers for Holyrood.

Mike.

[Skybird]

It's all theatre and stage-play. If Greece would not have started to torpedo the screenplay in last minute, they already would be finished, a deal would be presented, and Cameron would pretend that he delivered a big fight and bla and bla and blablabla.

Don't buy it, dear Britons! He tries to fool you like the EUSSR tries to fool the rest of us. If you say you want to leave, many of us will wave to you with an envious heart.

[STEED]

All this talk is for Tomb Stones Baby the UK is staying in the EU.

Mr Big will see to it.

[Dan D]

I think you are right Steed, because of this:
‘Yes, Minister’ unveils secrets of British foreign policy on Europe; United Nations and diplomacy

[Oberon]

It's ok, they've had a breakthrough in the negotiations, Cameron has unleashed his top secret weapon to bring UK victory:

[STEED]

I can not get worked up over nothing the FACT is we are staying in, the likes of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan & Chase will throw Billions at the stay in campaign. And Cameron and Co is put the scare on and people will go screaming into the night to vote stay in.



Meanwhile on BBC15 you can catch STEED telling dirty jokes in London tonight at 11pm. What do you mean you can not get BBC15? Tough luck if you don't pay that is hard cheese on you.

[Oberon]

Be lucky enough to get BBC3 old boy, let alone 5x3!

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Be lucky enough to get BBC3 old boy, let alone 5x3!

Clue

Try the Internet for BBC3.

[STEED]

No Cabinet Meeting Tonight - PM

Tory party cabinet celebrated the news and went straight to Parliaments Bars to get tanked up on champaign.

[STEED]

You guys should read the comments on the news sites.

I could make a ton of money selling stress pills to all that lot who are getting worked up!

Originally Posted by Skybird

It's all theatre and stage-play. If Greece would not have started to torpedo the screenplay in last minute, they already would be finished, a deal would be presented, and Cameron would pretend that he delivered a big fight and bla and bla and blablabla.

Don't buy it, dear Britons! He tries to fool you like the EUSSR tries to fool the rest of us. If you say you want to leave, many of us will wave to you with an envious heart.

If there's one thing likely to swing me over to voting to remain in the EU, it's nonsense like this. EUSSR? ROFL!!!!!