Air regonition flights / Help needed

[Wolverine1970]

Planning to start making scenario from Baltic sea situation ( Russian flights ). What is best way to make following: Russian planes flights narrow international air space Gulf of Finland to Kalingrad -> turns to violate either Finland, Estonia or Sweden airspace. Countries airforce must intercept Russian plane(s) before it reach deeper airspace ( trigger ). If interception succesful plane returns international airspace. If not succesful hostilities start. Is this kind of scenario making possible and is it very complicated?
Here is map