More Concealed Carriers=Less Violent Crime.

[Feuer Frei!]

Or so it seems.

Note: VIOLENT crime, not crime fullstop.


As studies go this one has a more thorough feel to it.

11.1 million Americans now have permits to carry concealed weapons. In 2007, that number was only 4.5 million. That’s an increase of 146%. Both murder and violent crime rates have dropped by 22 percent

A link to the study: http://crimepreventionresearchcenter...ted-States.pdf

Obviously there are some very logical reasons why this would occur. This study is not immune to that.


SOURCE

[Feuer Frei!]

Cool story Andy.

Wrong thread. Unless you are referring to a statistically significant inverse relationship between Concealed carriers and Violent Crimes.

The study provides no evidence whatsoever that the correlation is the consequence of a causal relationship. And without that, such statistics prove precisely nothing.

[Feuer Frei!]

Well, as far as Correlation and Causation go, they are not the same.

You are saying correlation proves causation?
If i understood you correctly?

I should also add that lack of correlation does not show lack of causation.

Lack of evidence = lack of evidence.

Though there is plenty of evidence that John R. Lott, Jr. the man behind this 'research' has a history of inventing 'data' to prove all sorts of things. Along with inventing a certain "Mary Rosh" sockpuppet to tell the world what a marvellous person John Lott was, and how his research was impeccable. http://reason.com/archives/2003/05/0...of-mary-rosh/1

[eddie]

With over 200 murders so far this year in Chicago already, I'd say there a problem with his math! Of course, the gangsters who do the killing, are carrying concealed weapons.

[Oberon]

The dog ate my homework and here is my friend who saw the dog

[the_tyrant]

I'm a criminologist by training, and crime numbers are pretty much anything you want them to be.

For example: I had to write a 20 page academic paper, and I just started 3 days before it was due. I never had time to do real research, and my TA doesn't have the time to actually check everyone's sources.

Did you know that by gaming the numbers, I can literally prove that arson reduces murder? If someone burns down a house with a person inside, you can either tally that as 1 count of arson, 1 count of murder, or one count of arson and murder! Fudge the numbers a bit, and suddenly, arson reduces murder!

Police around the world are doing this, so are researchers and journalists. I personally don't put much into crime numbers. I make up this crap all the time! And if you really read closely, you can sometimes feel (but can't prove), that the data analysis in some academic journals have been fudged.

Which is why I have to say, my latest research shows that paying me money is going to reduce the odds of you getting mugged Please send your money to my bank account, and literally, the odds of you being a victim of crime will go down, like instantly!

Did you know that by gaming the numbers, I can literally prove that arson reduces murder? If someone burns down a house with a person inside, you can either tally that as 1 count of arson, 1 count of murder, or one count of arson and murder! Fudge the numbers a bit, and suddenly, arson reduces murder!

You could apply that to the study of defensive gun use.
Have you used a gun to defend yourself?
Yes I heard a noise in the yard so went out with my gun.
OK it was only a raccoon in the trash can but it still counts as using agun defensively against a criminal.

[Subnuts]

Listen guys, concealed carriers work.

I was in a convenience store the other day getting a Big Gulp, when a dude pulled out a gun and demanded the clerk give him all the money in the register. The teller pushed a button on his register, and before you knew, an adorable little two-foot long aircraft carrier popped out of the hotdog cooker and started launching wave after wave of inch-long F-18s at him. The guy just stood there as microscopic laser-guided bombs and AGM-88s struck him in the chest. The perp crapped his pants and ran all the way to the UN, insisting the whole way that he never had any WMDs.

'Murica.

[Catfish]

^

[Platapus]

We have not had a foreign terrorist attack in the US during the period of time that the TV show 24 was shown.

That must also mean something... right...well....no.. actually.

Causation has to be proved. One can't just take the stance that since causation was not "un-proven" that it must be present.


Andy is bring up cogent points that are worth understanding.

[Feuer Frei!]

Originally Posted by Platapus

W
Causation has to be proved. One can't just take the stance that since causation was not "un-proven" that it must be present

Proved? Sure, but not by correlation.
Identifying a reason behind an argument or study or your bad example doesn't mean that the results or conclusions are false.

Andy is bring up cogent points that are worth understanding.

Because you agree with him.

If you look at his argument that correlation is the consequence of a causal relationship, which is a flawed analysis, then sure, jump on his train and choo choo away.