A hypothetical question.

[Admiral Halsey]

I was reading the book "The Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors" and it got me thinking about a couple of things. Like what if the Musashi hadn't been sunk or if Kurita pushed through Taffy 3 or Halsey had left his battlewagons an only took the cruisers with him when him went after Ozawa's northern force? Anyone else have any thought on this?

[TorpX]

I take it you are asking specifically about these questions, and not about what if's in general?

I think a fictional-random campaign would be very worthwhile for SH4, but I had not really thought about your questions. I've wondered what the war would have been like if the Japanese had won the battle of Midway. (A very plausible scenario, imo.)

[Admiral Halsey]

Originally Posted by TorpX

I take it you are asking specifically about these questions, and not about what if's in general?

I think a fictional-random campaign would be very worthwhile for SH4, but I had not really thought about your questions. I've wondered what the war would have been like if the Japanese had won the battle of Midway. (A very plausible scenario, imo.)

I hadn't thought of that.(Though it most likely would have ended the same as by 43 the nations industrial might finally showed up on the battlefields.)

[magic452]

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

I hadn't thought of that.(Though it most likely would have ended the same as by 43 the nations industrial might finally showed up on the battlefields.)

I've ofter though of "What if's and for the most part came to the same conclusions as you about Midway.

The course and duration of the war would have been different but the outcome would have been the same for the reason you gave. That goes for the ATO as well.

Magic

[agrims]

Actually, the war could have gone very badly for us very quickly in Europe. Being a history major helps a lot! Reasons the war could've very easily went the other way:

In the beginning, Germany was the technologically superior force. Had the battle of Britan lasted a week longer, Churchill wouldn't have had any planes left to fly, forcing his hand, and shortly thereafter would have had to surrender, as what the subs weren't sinking, the planes would have shifted to mopping up, starving the brits. Had Hitler held up his end of the bargin, Stalin would have been on his side a bit longer, and there would have been no eastern front to fight. Following the fall of Britan, he could have concentrated on producing weapons that were more reliable, and longer ranged, not to mention, by '48 at the latest he would have had atomic weapons, and had subs that were not able to be found by Allied ASDIC, and could launch V2 rockets off of these subs into places like New York, Norfolk, etc.

If Japan hadn't attacked the U.S. and instead had a better build up period, attacking China inward instead of spreading outward like they did, this would have put them in a good place for resources and a joint attack on Russia with Germany. This would have a two fold problem for Russia. Attack from 2 angles, and atomic weapons. Stalin was a ruthless man, but he would have been no match for atomic weapons.

The major problem with the Axis in WW2 was quiet simple. Too much too soon spreading themselves too thin. America probably wouldn't have entered the war at all had PH not have happened, and if they had, it would have been later, after the fall of Britan and China. We as a country were not in the mindset that we are in today, in that back then if it ain't broke, don't fix it. We also were not building up our forces until really '43, 2 years after the start of the war, and that would have happened whenever we actually went to war, as it took time to build up capacity.

We knew of a few of Germanies secret weapons programs, but the type 21 and 23 were something we didn't know anything about until the war ended, but we were honestly ignoring the war until PH, and had that not happened, we would probably be Sprechen sie Deutche!

I wish that I was better at modding games, it would be great to model an alternate war to the way things could have went.

[c13Garrison]

Admiral, your question is one that prevents a fellow from going to bed at 3am.

I will try to sum up my position, as what I started typing would have kept me up far longer. In the main I agree with Agrims, though I might quibble about the Battle of Britain with him- the Axis would have needed an air force half-again as large to bleed out England's with the plan they fought with, and 1200 more airplanes is no small thing to pull out of "what if" land. However, all they had to do to accomplish this was to fully mobilize for war before they started it, which they didn't in a proper economic sense do until After the US entered the war.

In the West, Germany had one great disadvantage- Adolph Hitler. I could easily come up with 12 decisions which had massive not tactical, but Strategic ramifications for the war effort. Russia may have never stopped fighting, but if you put Any competent military general staff in charge of Germany (and hey! Guess what, they HAD one) it instantly becomes a much harder war.

In the East, Japan suffered one great disadvantage- They attacked. What's more they attack the world's Largest economy with the economy of a nation a Tenth its size. If you could magically sink EVERY ship the US had afloat in January 1943, what they produced by January 1944 would Still eclipse the Japanese navy in both types and gross numbers. If they were defending a rope bridge that we could only cross one person at a time and it was the year 1500, ok, then maybe they had a chance. Even then, we'd lose enough men and then just decide to cut the bridge.

As far as the Battle of Midway, for anyone that enjoys reading about the true substance of military history I simply must recommend this book;

Shattered Sword, by Jonathan Parshall and Anthony Tully

It absolutely recasts the die on what a good historical text is and how it should be done, plus it is written in a style and tone that will prevent you from wanting to put it down. It is rich, and captivating, and anything I would write here about the hypothetical arguments would only be parroting the positions they so brilliantly lay out there. Japan lost the battle before their ships even put to sea due to their own battle plan.

And now, good night!

[Sailor Steve]

Originally Posted by agrims

Being a history major helps a lot!

And sometimes it hurts, leading you to assume what you're taught and not do your own research.

Had the battle of Britan lasted a week longer, Churchill wouldn't have had any planes left to fly,

On August 21, 1940, the RAF had 615 Hurricanes and 326 Spitfires. On October 18, 1940, the RAF had 512 Hurricanes and 285 Spitfires, or roughly 85% of the strength they started with.

While the Luftwaffe had 2800 aircraft available to the RAF's 675, only 800 of the German planes were fighters, and they were scattered all over Europe, while the British were contained in one relatively small geographic area. During the course of the Battle the British lost 1078 aircraft while the Germans lost 1562. The British built 2352 new planes while the Germans produced only 975.

The British were in trouble for a variety of reasons, and the outcome was never certain until it was over, but had the Battle of Britain lasted another week Churchill would have had almost one thousand planes left to fly.

[Dread Knot]

Originally Posted by agrims

If Japan hadn't attacked the U.S. and instead had a better build up period, attacking China inward instead of spreading outward like they did, this would have put them in a good place for resources and a joint attack on Russia with Germany. This would have a two fold problem for Russia. Attack from 2 angles, and atomic weapons. Stalin was a ruthless man, but he would have been no match for atomic weapons.

Japan's problem in China was that their army was bogged down with logistical and terrain difficulties and the war there was unwinnable without the resources, metals and oil Japan purchased from abroad. With every advance and atrocity in China those supplies were being further boycotted by the Western Allies.

When the Pacific War broke out, the Japanese allocated just 11 divisions to the conquest of the Dutch, British and American possessions in the Pacific out of an army of over 50 divisions. It was all they could spare. Most of the rest remained bogged down in a vast land war in Asia that Japan simply couldn't win without those conquered resources they could never really fully exploit. This supports the view that China was a quagmire that kept the Japanese from deploying their full strength to the Pacific.

[pstein]

Originally Posted by TorpX

I take it you are asking specifically about these questions, and not about what if's in general?

I think a fictional-random campaign would be very worthwhile for SH4, but I had not really thought about your questions. I've wondered what the war would have been like if the Japanese had won the battle of Midway. (A very plausible scenario, imo.)

I believe that the Japanese winning the Battle of Midway would do nothing more than prolong the war. We would be forced to divert troops and supplies from Europe to defend Hawaii and the West Coast, but I think the war's outcome would've been the same.

[Dread Knot]

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

I was reading the book "The Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors" and it got me thinking about a couple of things. Like what if the Musashi hadn't been sunk or if Kurita pushed through Taffy 3

Kurita was not on a suicide mission, so retreating seems to me to have been a very good move given what he knew about the circumstances.

Imagine how it plays out if he stays and pushes through. An hour to regain command and control of his force, four hours to do a thorough job busting up command, control and cohesion of the Leyte invasion fleet. In that time, he winds up trapped between Halsey's CVs and BBs, Turner's BBs and CVEs, and can't sink enough of the invasion TF to substantially change the outcome. So he loses everything. Sinks maybe a dozen light vessels of the invasion task force, or else sinks maybe a dozen vessels in Taffy 2 and 3.

Doesn't change the outcome of the war much. If anything Nimitz and company have less heavy Japanese surface units to hunt or worry about in 1945.