Murky Waters

[Skybird]

Creative thinking on Iran's part.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-861343.html

Letting things slide 'til the oil hits the fan.

[JU_88]

Well its not very 'secret' if www.spiegel.de know about it.
Its speculation at best, as is the whole Iran situation general, its one big 'what if'.

[Skybird]

What speculative about it?

The oil-filled barrier in front of the Iraqi defense lines in 91 were no speculation, but fact. Their intentional sabotaging of oil dwells to darken the sky over all the country were not speculative either.

If the Iranians think they can raise a successful bet by doing so, they will. Even more when considering the irresolute, opportunistic nature of Western politics.

[JU_88]

Originally Posted by Skybird

What speculative about it?.

1) It hasnt actually happend yet.
2) There is no actual proof, where is this secret document? who leaked it, who translated it? etc. Who knows how much truth is in it, should I believe everything I read at face value?
3) "Iran could be planning to create a vast oil spill in the Strait of Hormuz," So it could be true, or it could be news sensationalism (again)..... which brings me back to 'speculation'.

[Karle94]

Wow... Iranian insanity and stupidity knows no bound. If they did do it, how can Russia and China possibly defend Iran? Would`t they loose all respect and credibility doing so?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by JU_88

1) It hasnt actually happend yet.
2) There is no actual proof, where is this secret document? who leaked it, who translated it? etc. Who knows how much truth is in it, should I believe everything I read at face value?
3) "Iran could be planning to create a vast oil spill in the Strait of Hormuz," So it could be true, or it could be news sensationalism (again)..... which brings me back to 'speculation'.

You could say the same about the Iranian weapon program. You could have said the same about the Pakistani or Southafrican or Israeli weapon program before they materialized.

Does the scenario make sense? Very much. Is it within the rechc of Iran? Absolutely. Would it hurt their enemies and pose a threat that holds the chance to intimidate them to an effect? Definitely so.

Does this support or weaken the claim made by intel?

He who always waits for formalities being fulfilled and paperwork catching up with reality, will often find that he comes too late. And Iran, mind you, is said to me seriously strangled by those sanctions. I say since years that nevertheless they will not give up their weapon program. Using such desperate and devastating means like artifical oil plagues, just illustrates that and, from my view, make sense when assuming they will not give up there program but will fight it through, no matter what.

Right that the sanctions are hurting them adds tremendous trustworthiness to intel's claim.

When I approach a distant traffic light and see it switching from green to yellow, then I do not know for sure that next it will switch to red instead to green again.

But it is a reasonable assumption to assume that red is next. Ignoring that and accelerating because one doe snot know that the red light will be on when I am there, could and will mean trouble for me and others.

[JU_88]

He who always waits for formalities being fulfilled and paperwork catching up with reality, will often find that he comes too late. And Iran, mind you, is said to me seriously strangled by those sanctions. I say since years that nevertheless they will not give up their weapon program. Using such desperate and devastating means like artifical oil plagues, just illustrates that and, from my view, make sense when assuming they will not give up there program but will fight it through, no matter what.

So what do you want them to do with this information exactly, go to war with Iran?, and whose going to pick up the bill, are you? and will that fix the problem?
Or could some terrorist jerk just hijack another tanker and crash it later anyway (once he figured out that its a good idea?)
Sometimes its better to roll with the punches, even if that means (god forbid) living with 35% less oil for a little while.

Originally Posted by Skybird

When I approach a distant traffic light and see it switching from green to yellow, then I do not know for sure that next it will switch to red instead to green again.

But it is a reasonable assumption to assume that red is next. Ignoring that and accelerating because one doe snot know that the red light will be on when I am there, could and will mean trouble for me and others.

Thats fine but in this case we still dont actually know for sure that there is actually a traffic light.

[MH]

Originally Posted by Karle94

Wow... Iranian insanity and stupidity knows no bound. If they did do it, how can Russia and China possibly defend Iran? Would`t they loose all respect and credibility doing so?

How about Syria?

[Armistead]

Ah, this is old news, been talked about for years. Don't see it happening unless we do a mass invasion. Course, it's fairly we'll be bombing Iran within a year or so.

[Jimbuna]

It would appear to me the Iranians are becoming a tad deperate....any blockade in Hormuz would affect their exporting arm as well.

I would also imagine other Gulf producers would up their production in the short to medium turn to make up for any shortfall.

The scenario could well see oil prices rising whilst at the same time see Iran exporting less.