Democratic Discontent, Black Swans, Constitutional Conventions, Civil/Foreign Wars

[Feuer Frei!]

Could the United States radically change via another constitutional convention, experience a new civil war, split into multiple confederacies, and/or engage in a massive foreign war in order to preserve its cohesion? According to conventional thought, such possibilities are improbable. Nevertheless, while significant attention has been focused on recent riots in other parts of the world, some pollsters are measuring high levels of discontent here in the United States that might make such improbable events seem more plausible. Recently Paul Joseph Watson reported the following:
“Americans’ lack of confidence in their leadership is so fervent that they are now ‘pre-revolutionary,’ according to pollster Pat Caddell… A new Rasmussen poll shows that just 17 per cent of Americans believe that the U.S. government has the consent of the governed, an all time low. This dovetails with a record low for Congress’ approval rating, which stands at a paltry 6 per cent, while 46 per cent of Americans think most members of Congress are corrupt, with just 29% believing otherwise.”

When considering Americans’ skepticism about the legitimacy of their government, it is appropriate to question whether a “black swan” political-event (like one of the above) is in the making. Deriving its name from the surprising discovery of the first black version of a swan in Australia (after millenniums of the Old World believing all swans to be white), a black swan event is one that most people consider highly improbable, that is often associated with and catalytic for major paradigm shifts in the course of history, and that people tend to make retrospective explanations for so as to hide (often for the sake of maintaining peace of mind) its outlier status.

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[Torplexed]

Originally Posted by Feuer Frei!

When considering Americans***8217; skepticism about the legitimacy of their government, it is appropriate to question whether a ***8220;black swan***8221; political-event (like one of the above) is in the making. Deriving its name from the surprising discovery of the first black version of a swan in Australia (after millenniums of the Old World believing all swans to be white), a black swan event is one that most people consider highly improbable, that is often associated with and catalytic for major paradigm shifts in the course of history, and that people tend to make retrospective explanations for so as to hide (often for the sake of maintaining peace of mind) its outlier status.

I take it that there will be no Natalie Portman or Mila Kunis in this production?

[Skybird]

I recommend this book on "Black Swans"

The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable

It balances between narration for the popular market and relevance for the market's insiders. By that it is accessible for many, and gives a good introductory oversight over what it is about. The financial markets often serve as examples for what the author wants to illustrate.

Since I read it, I have given it to people as gifts three times. All liked it very much, saying that it is a very unusual perspective - but one that needs to be taken into account.

Many people say his book before Black Swans was much better. I cannot comment on that, I have not read it. But this it is:

Fooled By Randomness: The role of hidden chance in the markets and life

[mookiemookie]

A "black swan" event is, by definition, a surprise and nigh-impossible to predict. People that make predictions and call them "black swan events" make me