Economy numbers out today

[SUBMAN1]

Seems we still grew at 6/10ths of a percent for the first quarter. Looks like we will avoid a recession this year.

-S

[SUBMAN1]

I thought you guys would be happy to hear that the economy grew? Do you guys realize that this is 500% over expectation of all the doom and gloom sayers? There is no excitement over this? I thought its good news, but I guess no one cares.

-S

[Dowly]

Yaaay!

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by Dowly

Yaaay!

That's what I thought! Its good for everyone. The US economy added $83,0620,950,000 to its economy in Q1 of 2008.

Bad news is, the US dollar is getting stronger.

-S

[Konovalov]

Great news and growth was ahead of expectations apparently too. 6 tenths of one percentage point GDP is absolutely stunning not.

I still think that the US economy will move into a recession by the end of year. I say this because for a long period of time it has been consumer confidence and spending which has kept the economy moving forward. But consumer confidence has taken a bit of a hit recently. And just look at the banks shop windows. They are all encouraging people to save for a change and not spend.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7375522.stm

"We see very little reason for optimism, however. There are some very troubling signs in this report."

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity, grew at the weakest rate since the second quarter of 2001, the Commerce Department report showed.

It rose 1% after growing 2.3% in the fourth quarter.

"The outlook on the consumer side is still cloudy. There is no assurance that consumer spending is even steady," said Pierre Ellis, senior global economist at Decision Economics.

Spending on residential construction fell 26.7%, indicating the extent of the slowdown in the American housing sector.

High inventories also masked the true picture, other analysts said.

Stephen Malyon, senior currency strategist at Scotia Capital, said the GDP figures were a bit stronger than market expectations "but the strength is slightly misleading as inventories has accounted for 0.8% of the rise".

"Final domestic demand actually fell 0.4% underscoring the deterioration in the US economy, " he added.

Hardly confidence inspiring stuff. Uncertain times ahead as no one really seems to know how deep the credit crunch will run and how it will impact the global economy.

Hey Subman, what happened to you replying to that other thread as you said you would? This one in case you forgot: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/show...=135580&page=2

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by Konovalov

...Hardly confidence inspiring stuff. Uncertain times ahead as no one really seems to know how deep the credit crunch will run and how it will impact the global economy.

Hey Subman, what happened to you replying to that other thread as you said you would? This one in case you forgot: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/show...=135580&page=2

It is confidence inspiring, and if the number of people in Loewe's the other day is any indication, great times ahead. All this doom and gloom stuff has going on for 2 years now and it has failed to materialize.

And on that thread - when I feel like it. Not high on the priority list right now, and besides, Letum already did a lot of my work for me by re-iterating my points. Thanks Letum!

-S

[Sea Demon]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

That's what I thought! Its good for everyone. The US economy added $83,0620,950,000 to its economy in Q1 of 2008.

Bad news is, the US dollar is getting stronger.

-S

Come on Subman. We can't let the dollar bottom out. At any rate, it would also help us economically if we increased our own domestic supply of oil, by tapping our own domestic reserves. It's not going to help if gas prices continue to rise like they're doing. It's harmful to the country to leave those supplies untapped because of the stupid people in the environmental "global warming" movement and their fake/paid for issue.

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by Sea Demon

Come on Subman. We can't let the dollar bottom out. At any rate, it would also help us economically if we increased our own domestic supply of oil, by tapping our own domestic reserves. It's not going to help if gas prices continue to rise like they're doing. It's harmful to the country to leave those supplies untapped because of the stupid people in the environmental "global warming" movement and their fake/paid for issue.

I hear ya. We should tap our oil in AK for example, but this would be a band aid. Synthetic gas was on the plate in the 1980's, but was scrapped since it would cost about 2x what oil was selling for back then. Today, it would cost about $50 a barrel to make synthetic gas, but right now, that sounds pretty good!

Now why oil has been so cheap for the US for so many years? OPEC was waiting for the synthetic oil projects to be cut. They were, and now its 2008 and $114 a barrel.

Seems to me, those projects need to be revived.

As for the countries reserves, they shouldn't be touched except in time of crisis. Having expensive gas is not considered a crisis in my book.

-S

PS. Some non official info on it - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_fuel - You can get it even from coal, which the US has plenty of.

Several factors make synthetic fuels attractive relative to competing technologies such as biofuels, ethanol/methanol or hydrogen:

• The raw material (coal) is available in quantities sufficient to meet current demand for centuries
• It can produce gasoline, diesel or kerosene directly without the need for additional steps such as reforming or cracking
• There is no need to convert vehicle engines to use a different fuel
• There is no need to build a new distribution network

[Sea Demon]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

As for the countries reserves, they shouldn't be touched except in time of crisis. Having expensive gas is not considered a crisis in my book.

-S

I'll agree that those projects definitely need to be looked at again. Especially coal. As far as expensive gas goes, at some point the price of gas will hinder the ability to deliver goods and services across different sectors of the economy efficiently, and in a cost effective manner. At some point we could see downturns in investment which drive job growth and creation to become stagnant. And perhaps we'll see job losses. How much is a guess, but I can see where it could lead to a crisis if market forces do not correct to adjust for the increased prices at the pump. If we've got the resources, we should use them. Let the OPEC suppliers rot in hell.

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by Sea Demon

I'll agree that those projects definitely need to be looked at again. Especially coal. As far as expensive gas goes, at some point the price of gas will hinder the ability to deliver goods and services across different sectors of the economy efficiently, and in a cost effective manner. At some point we could see downturns in investment which drive job growth and creation to become stagnant. And perhaps we'll see job losses. How much is a guess, but I can see where it could lead to a crisis if market forces do not correct to adjust for the increased prices at the pump. If we've got the resources, we should use them. Let the OPEC suppliers rot in hell.

All true.

OPEC - can't agree more. I mean, look at their members. 99% of them hate the US, and then you wonder why we have $114 barrels of oil?

-S

[Konovalov]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

OPEC - can't agree more. I mean, look at their members. 99% of them hate the US, and then you wonder why we have $114 barrels of oil?

-S

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: Oh heck.

99% of OPEC hate the US hence high oil prices. What a pile of poo poo. Don't be so simplistic. China, India for a start......

Off to watch Liverpool v Chelsea in the 2nd leg of the other Champions League semi-final before returning to this comedy.

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by Konovalov

...99% of OPEC hate the US hence high oil prices. What a pile of poo poo. Don't be so simplistic. China, India for a start......

Sometimes things are that simplistic. If you want to get complicated, start reading up on the delisting of barrel prices based on supply. Also look at the people to the countries involved, from Chavez to Iran. All wonderful people! I would like to have lunch with them! :p

-S

[Konovalov]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

Sometimes things are that simplistic. If you want to get complicated, start reading up on the delisting of barrel prices based on supply. Also look at the people to the countries involved, from Chavez to Iran. All wonderful people! I would like to have lunch with them! :p

-S

The lack of supply is only one of many major factors influencing the high oil prices. It's not just as simple as you say. There is:
1. Supply shortage - caused mainly by industry underinvestment.
2. Slightly increased demand fueled by China, India and co.
3. War in Iraq, while instability in Nigeria due to ethnic tribal tensions have resulted in lower outputs.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by Konovalov

Off to watch Liverpool v Chelsea in the 2nd leg of the other Champions League semi-final before returning to this comedy.

Bad outcome for me.

Fan of the Red's.

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by Konovalov

The lack of supply is only one of many major factors influencing the high oil prices. It's not just as simple as you say. There is:
1. Supply shortage - caused mainly by industry underinvestment.
2. Slightly increased demand fueled by China, India and co.
3. War in Iraq, while instability in Nigeria due to ethnic tribal tensions have resulted in lower outputs.

I see you easily buy into hype.

1. No supply shortage exists. Prices are not based on Supply at all.
2. Fuel demand hasn't changed in 50 years, growing at an average rate of about 1% per year for as long as most of us have been alive. This includes Chinas increased demand for fuel.
3. There has never been peace in the middle east and hostilities have never affect prices before.

Skybird can explain it to you in detail since I do not have time, but it is clear that you do not understand what is going on. Ask him. I'm sure he will oblige.

-S