Saudi will intervene in Iraq if US withdraws-aide

Using money, weapons or its oil power, Saudi Arabia will intervene to prevent Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias from massacring Iraqi Sunni Muslims once the United States begins pulling out of Iraq, a security adviser to the Saudi government said on Wednesday.
Nawaf Obaid, writing in The Washington Post, said the Saudi leadership was preparing to revise its Iraq policy to deal with the aftermath of a possible U.S. pullout, and is considering options including flooding the oil market to crash prices and thus limit Iran's ability to finance Shi'ite militias in Iraq.
"To be sure, Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks -- it could spark a regional war. So be it: The consequences of inaction are far worse," Obaid said.
The article said the opinions expressed were Obaid's own and not those of the Saudi government. "To turn a blind eye to the massacre of Iraqi Sunnis would be to abandon the principles upon which the kingdom was founded. It would undermine Saudi Arabia's credibility in the Sunni world and would be a capitulation to Iran's militarist actions in the region," he said.


http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N29311689.htm

[bookworm_020]

I can see fighting between Iran and Saudi Arabia if the US pull out, it will go from a civil war to regional conflict in a short space of time. What ever happen in Iraq, it's going to be messy

[Tchocky]

Yes...."going" to be messy

[Yahoshua]

Maybe we should just pull out, let them have their fun and when they've finished we'll go back in and clean up the mess. Both sides kill eachother off and leaves less people concerned with the U.S. around.

[bookworm_020]

It might be nice to let them fight amongst themselves and pick up the pieces when it's all over, but I don't think that would be a good idea for the global markets and the poor suck who has to fill up there petrol tank and find the price is five time what it cost last week.

Plus ther may not be much left after it's all over!

[Yahoshua]

More incentive to find something better than petrol.

[tycho102]

I agree.

Iraq will become a "proxy", just like the Palestinians. The Saudi will fund the Sunni, and Iran the Shi'a. But I know the Iranians will win. That is the point where it's going to get interesting. Iran will start open (as opposed to current covert) convoys of rockets and missiles to Lebanon and the West Bank. They'll have that place fully stocked up, bunkers built, chain of command issues "worked out" (read: the right jihadists and imams assassinated), and the entire place trained -- within 12 months of taking ownership of Iraq.

And the Shi'a will definitely start leaning on the Wahabbi. Probably through oil distruptions, giving the Iranians some seriously outstanding profits if they can manage to keep their own supply lines protected -- which is what they are going to gamble against. Crude at $90 will enrich Iran far more than Saudi Arabia, if Saudi Arabia's supply has been cut.

It is interesting to note that Iran and Hizbullah, along with Syria, are feeling a little exposed after this last assassination of a Christian legislator. I think they are fortifying the right areas, namely by staging protests to disrupt the current administration before another "international investigation" into the assassination can be organized.




There's a lot of issues that are interdependent. I still think we should get the hell out of Iraq, as soon as possible. Just start flying C-5's out, gator freighters for whomever can mobilize in such a piecemeal fashion (Army supply corps), MAC flights for everyone else. We could be out of there in 30 days -- and I'm all for it.

Originally Posted by tycho102

I agree.

Iraq will become a "proxy", just like the Palestinians. The Saudi will fund the Sunni, and Iran the Shi'a. But I know the Iranians will win. That is the point where it's going to get interesting. Iran will start open (as opposed to current covert) convoys of rockets and missiles to Lebanon and the West Bank. They'll have that place fully stocked up, bunkers built, chain of command issues "worked out" (read: the right jihadists and imams assassinated), and the entire place trained -- within 12 months of taking ownership of Iraq.

And the Shi'a will definitely start leaning on the Wahabbi. Probably through oil distruptions, giving the Iranians some seriously outstanding profits if they can manage to keep their own supply lines protected -- which is what they are going to gamble against. Crude at $90 will enrich Iran far more than Saudi Arabia, if Saudi Arabia's supply has been cut.

It is interesting to note that Iran and Hizbullah, along with Syria, are feeling a little exposed after this last assassination of a Christian legislator. I think they are fortifying the right areas, namely by staging protests to disrupt the current administration before another "international investigation" into the assassination can be organized.




There's a lot of issues that are interdependent. I still think we should get the hell out of Iraq, as soon as possible. Just start flying C-5's out, gator freighters for whomever can mobilize in such a piecemeal fashion (Army supply corps), MAC flights for everyone else. We could be out of there in 30 days -- and I'm all for it.

The Democrats are not interested in an immediate with drawal, although that was one of their promises. I think their rally was 'a new direction'.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...901317_pf.html

[MadMike]

What? No input from Skybird?!?

Yours, Mike

[Fish]

Originally Posted by tycho102

I agree.

Iraq will become a "proxy", just like the Palestinians. The Saudi will fund the Sunni, and Iran the Shi'a. But I know the Iranians will win. That is the point where it's going to get interesting. Iran will start open (as opposed to current covert) convoys of rockets and missiles to Lebanon and the West Bank. They'll have that place fully stocked up, bunkers built, chain of command issues "worked out" (read: the right jihadists and imams assassinated), and the entire place trained -- within 12 months of taking ownership of Iraq.

And the Shi'a will definitely start leaning on the Wahabbi. Probably through oil distruptions, giving the Iranians some seriously outstanding profits if they can manage to keep their own supply lines protected -- which is what they are going to gamble against. Crude at $90 will enrich Iran far more than Saudi Arabia, if Saudi Arabia's supply has been cut.

It is interesting to note that Iran and Hizbullah, along with Syria, are feeling a little exposed after this last assassination of a Christian legislator. I think they are fortifying the right areas, namely by staging protests to disrupt the current administration before another "international investigation" into the assassination can be organized.




There's a lot of issues that are interdependent. I still think we should get the hell out of Iraq, as soon as possible. Just start flying C-5's out, gator freighters for whomever can mobilize in such a piecemeal fashion (Army supply corps), MAC flights for everyone else. We could be out of there in 30 days -- and I'm all for it.

When it becomes a soenie-shiit war the soenie are in the majority I think.
For example Indonesië the biggest moslim country has only 1 % shiits.

[Konovalov]

Originally Posted by MadMike

What? No input from Skybird?!?

Yours, Mike

I believe that he has left the forum now due to real world commitments or something along those lines. In fact here it is: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/show...hlight=Skybird

[moose1am]

I was thinking this also. But then when I thought about it a bit longer I realized that we would run out of oil while the war raged on in the middle east. Imagine Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran in a shooting war that lasted for ten years. Iran and Iraq fought a limited war for ten years and it was a stalemate. But look at the trouble the Iran Iraq war caused to the oil shipments. Now imagine a new war with more powerful armies, navies and air forces and without the USA in the middle. Sure they will kill themselves but while they are prosecuting this war the flow of oil thought the Persian gulf will slow to a trickle at best. What will the other developed countries do when the oil runs low? Saudi Arabia will have to be able to keep Iranian aircraft and submarines away from their oil fields, refineries, and shipping terminals. And the Straights of Hormuz (SP?) will be nearly impossible to pass. With the Iranians having these new submarines that run on electricity generated by Hydrogen and Oxygen (fuel Cells) the Saudis will have a hard time finding them and destroying them. These new subs scare the heck out of me. Unless they can be put out of action fast the world will run out of oil quickly and that will be a disaster.

Every large country is worried about energy security. That's why China and India are building up their naval forces and building more and more ships and subs. With supersonic cruise missiles and supercavitating torpedoes how can ships transit the Persian Gulf or even the Indian Ocean without worrying about getting sunk.

Would you want to be on a slow moving oil tanker that was a sitting duck? The price for oil would skyrocket and provide Iran with even more money. And don't forget that Iran probably already has Nukes or very soon will have them. Korea already has them.

The world is a scary place these days.

We should have never partially invaded Iraq. We should have secure the country with a several hundred thousands troops if we want the oil. But we went in half cocked and now we have a terrible mess with no way out. Now when Iran has long range missiles that may carry nukes to the USA. Maybe they don't have them just yet. But they may acquire them sooner rather than later.

I don't like the idea all so many countries have nuclear weapons that can be directed to our shores.

One of the smartest thing this country has done is to build up antimissile missiles and interceptors to try to shield the USA from enemy rockets. We need to speed up that program and make it work now.

Originally Posted by Yahoshua

Maybe we should just pull out, let them have their fun and when they've finished we'll go back in and clean up the mess. Both sides kill eachother off and leaves less people concerned with the U.S. around.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by moose1am

One of the smartest thing this country has done is to build up antimissile missiles and interceptors to try to shield the USA from enemy rockets. We need to speed up that program and make it work now.

Whoa, whoa, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here! Ignoring the fact that Iran is unlikely to have that kind of technology for ages to come, the only reason they'd ever pull something like that is if they wanted to go out in a blaze of glory. But I don't think they're quite that desperate yet. Israel, on the other hand, has some serious things to worry about.

Meanwhile, to say that "this is going to be a mess" is to imply that it isn't a mess already

I said and always will say that the US & Co. have done Iran a huge favour by removing their enemy #1 - who else but Saddam. In a single