Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study.

[Fish]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.
The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

[STEED]

We I will be an old fart by then better stock up on guns a dark time is coming.

By the way have they taken in to account there be more people on the planet as the years go by resulting in greater consumption.

[Linton]

You have posted this three times!!

[STEED]

He's keen

[SUBMAN1]

Yep. Better find a way to protect your food since I would think that you may need to do that in the future.

I wonder how a country like America will be affected? Will we just go all electric? We have enough coal in this country to last many of my lifetimes. I don't expect the same impact here as I would in a 3rd world country. Just my thoughts on it.

-S

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by Hakahura

Well IMHO America would be affected as bad if not worse than anywhere else.
Is there any other country in the world so dependant on the car?
For instance.....
How far to the nearest food store if you live in an american city? And by what means of transport would that food have got there?
Then theres the airplane.
No other country is so dependant on air travel/transportation. (Understandable given the size of the place)
I don't think the solar/electric/wind or wave powered aircraft is anywhere near on the horizon.

Lets face it, if/when the oil runs out we are all done for.

I don't agree with that assesment. A. We will still be buying much of that oil in 2030 at the expense of other countries not getting as much, and B. we have the ability to innovate and adapt where a 3rd world country lacks the technical talent to do so - http://www.evworld.com/evguide.cfm?evtype=production

Cali has 5,000 of them on the road.

And if Iceland can get Hydrogen going for it's populace, I don't see why we can't given 30 years time! Isn't that enough time to adapt?

Never underestimate the capitalists societies ability to adapt to make money. I don't think we will have that many problems, assuming nuclear war does not hit us first with Iran and it's ambitions.

-S

[Hakahura]

I don't particularly want to start a flame war or bash America.....

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

I don't agree with that assesment. A. We will still be buying much of that oil in 2030 at the expense of other countries not getting as much, and B. we have the ability to innovate and adapt where a 3rd world country lacks the technical talent to do so - http://www.evworld.com/evguide.cfm?evtype=production

Cali has 5,000 of them on the road.

And if Iceland can get Hydrogen going for it's populace, I don't see why we can't given 30 years time! Isn't that enough time to adapt?

Never underestimate the capitalists societies ability to adapt to make money. I don't think we will have that many problems, assuming nuclear war does not hit us first with Iran and it's ambitions.

-S

We will still be buying much of that oil in 2030 at the expense of other countries not getting as much

But when you express opinions like that you can't expect other nations to hold yours with much regard.

Quotes like that could be construded by some more extreme people around the world, as reason to attack America before it uses its financial clout to take their oil.

Less extreme people might think "with allies like this who needs......"

But maybe I'm wrong and that was a typo

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by Hakahura

I don't particularly want to start a flame war or bash America.....


We will still be buying much of that oil in 2030 at the expense of other countries not getting as much

But when you express opinions like that you can't expect other nations to hold yours with much regard.

Quotes like that could be construded by some more extreme people around the world, as reason to attack America before it uses its financial clout to take their oil.

Less extreme people might think "with allies like this who needs......"

But maybe I'm wrong and that was a typo

It's a fact. It is not like we will force it. It is a financial thing. And no, it is not a typo. The terrorists won't attack over that idea as well because they are the ones getting the $$$! They already have the oil too, so to them, it is non-issue. They will continue to fight for their whacked ideals which has little to do with oil. Those ideals is to create a Islamic world, which will never happen.

Sounds to me like this idea ticks you off. It shouldn't. I am simply stating an economic reality or idea. Doesn't matter if I live in Africa and state it, it is what it is.

-S

[Skybird]

Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.

In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2005 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

The resulting graph is extremely striking, I think. The four different sources all estimate Saudi production slightly differently - they fluctuate in different ways month to month, and disagree over the absolute level (that last may be differences in exactly what is defined as oil). However, the regressions make clear that all four sources are in strong agreement about the nature of the decline. The slopes of the lines are very similar. The implied decline rate through the year is 8% ± 0.1%. (Note that the year on year decline from 2005 to 2006 will only be about half that, as the decline only began at the beginning of 2006). As far as I know, there are no known accidents or problems that would explain any restrictions on oil supply, and the Saudis themselves have maintained publicly that their production is unproblematic and they intend to increase it.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2325

and many others

[AG124]

I read some of those articles Skybird posted - the situation for the world's energy supply appears more serious than I ever realized (assuming the articles are correct, which I do assume). I am surprised more people are worried about this, although I guess I wouldn't know what to do or say myself. I do all the usual things to conserve energy though (i.e. don't leave the engine running, turn off lights when I'm not using them, etc.).

[bradclark1]

Exxon Mobil can hire Blackwater to fight their wars.

[STEED]

You better all enjoy what's left of the good times as we enter a new dark age.

[Skybird]

But times of darkness have the charm of making people pray.

[DeepIron]

You better all enjoy what's left of the good times as we enter a new dark age.

But I would expect things to get even 'darker' still... Depends on faith/belief I guess...

But times of darkness have the charm of making people pray.

Amen...

[STEED]

Food prices will rocket along with your house hold bills, air travel will almost end along with road transport. This list will go on and on, people you better make the most of your life style now as one day the curtain will fall.