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#1 | |
Soaring
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I agree with the better part of what is said here, although I am aware of the orientation of the author, and that is not completely my own. But all in all I go with the content of this text.
Quote:
The following is German language, I'm sorry but it is too long to translate it manually. The author sees the Lebanon war in a greater context: as a necessary preparation for war against Iran, and maybe also Syria. For Iran, Hezbollah also was a deterrant against a possible attack by the US and/or Israel, it makes sense to remove that deterrant before the attack against Iran takes place. The author quotes a Pakistani general who predcited a simulatneous american attack against Iran AND Syria in autumn 2006. I have come over analysis by this author repeatedly now and have learned to respect this kind of systematical approach on subjects. Like his essay "Bombs on Iran?", that I had translated, this one again sees things in agreater context - and then it suddenly makes perfect sense. http://www.heise.de/bin/tp/issue/r4/...286&mode=print
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If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 08-08-06 at 11:03 AM. |
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#2 | ||
Ace of the Deep
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/arbour/ Quote:
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What can you do against the lunatic who is more intelligent than yourself, who gives your arguments a fair hearing and then simply persists in his lunacy? -- George Orwell |
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#3 |
In the Brig
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Israel must have the advantage, I can't imagine anyone calling for a cease fire if the tables were turned.
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#4 |
Admiral
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Ah Skybird, doesn't this remind you of that time I said the USA would self-destruct like Europe?
You might still hold old-fashioned or theoretical views on the US. But Rice cannot go against the will of the people, and when all the militancy is in favour of the Hizbollah, when everybody is shocked and indignant and demands peace, policy follows through. Take the best example: war. Many did not want to join WW2, but then Pearl Harbor happened and all the talk and discussion ceased. Landon and Roosevelt started speaking the same language. Afghanistan and Iraq were only possible because of 9/11. And of course, you have this Israeli-Hizbollah war which smells like Vietnam. What does the UN think Israel should do? React proportionally? Does that mean if the Hizbollah kills eight soldiers and kidnaps two Israel should do the same to them? So the Hizbollah will dictate the terms of the war? Have you noticed by the last attack on Haifa, that even with all this heavy bombing the attacking power of the enemy has not yet been eliminated? The Lebanese government, now in the hands of the Hizbollah, will only accept a cease-fire if Israel immediately exits the country. Lebanon doesn't exist anymore, it has suffered a militaristic Coup d'èta and is now under control of the homicidal militia, seeing how the Hizbollah dictates the terms. Their objective being the complete destruction of their neighbor state. But of course, America is shocked with Israel. Lebanese children do need protection, but so does the Israeli, and both mainly so from the hands of the Hizbollah which recruits 13 year olds! For the sake of the children from both sides of the border, the Hizbollah must be destroyed. Their ambition is to one day be strong enough to wipe Israel off the map, which is also the ambition of the Iranian Ayatollah. A cease-fire which doesn't provide the destruction of the Hizbollah will only buy them time to fulfil their ambition.
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"Tout ce qui est exagéré est insignifiant." ("All that is exaggerated is insignificant.") - Talleyrand Last edited by TteFAboB; 08-08-06 at 11:40 AM. |
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#5 |
Soaring
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I hope that Meggle's essay will be translated into English, like his formidable Iran-essay was translated some weeks after the German first publishing, too. I just red it again, and noted that that early quoick-reading led me to misunderstand several details. I therefore must say that I agree with his situational analysis very much, leaving out all ethical and moral implications.
I repeatedly said that this war is not about two missing soldiers, but about destroying the thread potential of Hezbollah, and destroying any infrastructure that could lead to ressuplying Hezbollah via Syria or Iran. I still do not like the minor and imo inadequate action on the ground, and think that they massively underestimated the capacities of Hezbollah. And that is very alarming: that there enemy was able to gain that firepower under the eyes of Mossad - and Mossad not realizing it. Hope the western authorities learn a lesson from this. Between 10 and 20 thousand troops are involved, they say - if I would have a say there, a general mobilization of all available reservists nationwide would have been finished three weeks ago, and minimum 100 thousand troops would be standing in Southern Lebanon right now, turning every rock, while artillery and airforce would be flattening every hilltop and filling every valley over there, until it all is smooth and even. However, as Meggle argues, if the Israelis succeed in destroying most of Hezbollah'S arsenal, prevent their ressuply by destroying all infrastructure - and then get an international force being stationed there, the operation would be a huge success even if it fails to bring home two soldiers or wiping out Hezbollah or is even strenghtening their political and manpower support - all the latter factors are of no real strategic importance. Decisive is only that Iran cannot strike back via Hezbollah and open a second front in Israel in case Iran gets attacked. That's what it is about. I wrote some days ago that the lebanon war in a way already is a war against Iran. Meggle's longterm strategy analysis confirms that view. I expected a war against Iran for reasons of the inner dynamic of the situation and the logic that drives both sides into the directions of their own national interests. The Lebanon war is the last signal I needed to be convinced by now that despite the high risk and questionable chance of success in killing the nuke program of iran by military means, a war against Iran and probably also Syria already is a decided issue. the UN has not really a say in this, it is a musical instrument that the solists are masterfully playing on. when Annan condemns Israel and demands an international force being deployed - he probably helps to fulfill Israel's strategical goal in this operation: getting Hezbollah out of range, and getting Western armies to guide their flanks against Iranian retaliation once the Iran issue gets hot. It's all a chessboard out there. Poor Kofi. If his brain would be made of chocolate, he wouldn't have enough to fill a smartie, but he's proud like a little boy to be the secretary general of at least "something". And if he doesnt get his will - he stomps his feet. Buy him a limo, he might get thirsty!
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