Big election victory for Hamas

[Abraham]

The Palestinian Authority has a new problem: Hamas has won the elections.

The US and the EU have declaired that Hamas is a terrorist organisation and demand that a new Hamas-led government will have to renounce violence and recognise the State of Israel.
The US and the EU are also the biggest sponsors of the PA-economy.
Hamas has as its doctrine that "the Zionist entity" has to be erased.
Most of the Palestinians seem to have voted more against Al Fatah then pro-Hamas, out of frustration from the nepotism and corruption under the old PLO-leadership. Furthermore the former Yassir Arafat party is in total disarray and hopelessly divided.

What will happen now Hamas has entered the political arena. Wil it stick to it's doctrinairy point of view about the continual battle against "the Zionist entity" and bring no progress to the political proces and a reduction of much needed foreign aid, or will it make dirty hands, compromise, recognise Israel and become a more or less "accepted", even "fashoinable" political party like so many terror/liberation organisations in the past...

[DAB]

I can not but be amused by all of this. Not because Hamas has won the elections...but because the US and EU are no longer in a position to negosiate from a position of good faith.

At the end of the day, we are going to have to talk to them. Yes it may be the political wing of a terrorist organisation - but so too was Sien Fein in Nr Ireland and we talked to them. What makes this moral position any different? ...And lets face it if we can swollow our pride, some good may come of this.

We do after all have a government of Pallestine now that has the mandate to speak for its people. It therefore stands that progress made with these people will be progress that the Pallestinians will accept. It is a strong government by the looks of things - so it will not have to worry about watching its back... and irronically it is the first government that Pallestine has had that CAN actually reign in the terrorists.

This may be the biggest storm cloud, in the history of Middle Easten storm clouds - but I think their may just be a silver lining.

What is clear though, is that the US and EU can not sulk for six months whilst anomosities are intrenched. Israel, with Sharon gone is feeling extremely vunerable...and if the Pallestinians uthoria is not matched by a sudden change for the better - the hard line views will become intrenched. We have to get moving now...and swollow our pride in the process.

[Skybird]

As expected. Some "intellectual" bubbles in European politician's heads bursted. Situation is of mounting inner tension. Election result is caused by self-dynamic process. Since Hamas is not just some terror club, but an Islamic terror club, and in Islam politics and religion essentially is the same, I cannot see that the aggressiveness of Hammas could be tamed by embracing them in civil responesbilities and governmental authority. Social welfare was what made Hamas big and earned it sympathies in Arab world initially. This did not stop it from fighting and sacrificing it's human weapons in suicide attacks. As long as there is Israel, there will be something like Hamas as well, and if Hamas get's destroyed, another one will come. I don't see and never saw hope for peace for Israel. War is Israel's beginning, life, and ending.

Situation holds little creative potential. Mildly said. Option one is my vote. If it will gain nothing from that, cannot be said in the present. With every bomb they send o Israel, another small "pick!" is added to the destruction of Israel. They can play that for centuries.

[Abraham]

There is a lot of truth in what you say, DAB. But don't forget the US (President Clinton) practically cayoted the IRA to the negotiating table with outlawing them in the States (their financial power base) if they would not compromise.

So the West is in an unique position to cutback on aid to the Palestinian Authority and force Hamas to recognise the State of Israel (which is a reality "on the ground" so to say).
But it will first have to be tough before it starts dividing the cookies, because otherwise Hamas will consider economic support from the West a uninfringable right and will bitterly complain if economic help is ever used as a political tool in the future.

And yes, you are right, Hamas is the only one that can reign in Hamas.

I'm convinced that the EU will take a tough stand on this (the Dutch foreign minister demanded today that Hamas openly recognises Israel and renounced violence).

[CCIP]

Option 3 sounds quite familiar. I think that's it.

I'm not exactly a fan of either side's more extreme elements (be they Palestinian or Israeli), but I find this one nothing short of disgusting.

[Skybird]

The story holds a good taste of irony, though. It was this current US administration demanding democracy in the Middle East. The Middle East is far from beeing democratic, no matter if there was one election or not. But it was a democratic election that brought Hamas to power. It also was American pressure on Mubarak forcing him to have slightly more democratic elections in Egypt - with Mubarak now facing a legitimate oppositon - which is formed by an extremist Muslim organisation as well (Muslim brotherhood). And the victory of democracy in Iraq (ehem, may I ask for a little more enthusiasm and applaus, please...) in the final result will lead to a Mullahcratic government in Iraq, too.

Was this what Bush had in mind when starting to babble about democracy in the middle East - Islamic extremism grabbing for governmental power? Maybe one should start asking question WHY Kemal Attaturk was so unforgiving on supressing the religious orthodoxy. And why Mubarak ruled with so much dictatorial power und supressed the religious orthodxy. Why Musharaf clashes with the religious orthodxy regularly. And why Indonesia has so much problems with religious orthodoxy. And why Saudi-Arabia needs to be a de facto dictatorship and is attacked time and again by - the religious orthodoxy (Al Quaeda). And why Saddam was such a brutally acting dictator supressing Shia orthodxy and trying to manipulate it.

Maybe because uncompromised power is the only thing that can stop Islamic orthodoxy to advance and spreading it's violance further and further...!?

Before one continues to demand more "democracy" in such countries, one needs to ask some questions. Is the understanding of "democracy" and "freedom" and "peace" and the value of these words the same for them as it is for us? Are such societies even able to form and live by rules that meet our understanding of these terms. AND CAN WE EVEN AFFORD TO HAVE DEMOCRACIES IN ISLAMIC COUNTRIES?

Before the Iraq war started I got accused of not agreeing on that these societies are capable to form their own democracies, and that this evaluation even was some kind of racism by me. Well, all you guys who said like that back then - still thinking I was so much off target when thinking of Egypt, Palestine, Iraq today?

Educate yourself with competent literature from non-Muslim sources, so that you can form an independent understanding of the TRUE nature of Islam that is not distorted by Islam'S twisted, contradictive and two-faced self-description. Don't trust those who are propagating the equality of Islam to Western values for their own opportunistic reasons. Then you'll see how much off target YOU were before.

[Abraham]

You are very, very pessimistic, Skybird!
I would like to welcome Hamas to XXIth century international politics.
Let them talk to US & EU foreign ministers instead of to their blinded followers and let them reap the meager harvest of their international performance. If they don't compromise and (thus) fail, they will be wiped away in the next elections or they will show their true colors, avoid elections and start a theocratic tyranny.
The result for the average Palestinian will be demagogy instead of democracy and a progress rate of 0%.
And as we all know: "Every country gets the leader it deserves."
(quote from Yassir Arafat?)

[Skybird]

One only needs to be too optimistic, then all others appear to be pessimistic, Abraham. I think you live by too much wishfulk thinking here. we are talking about one of the most radical Islamic organisation there are, that - different to Al Quaeda - is deeply rooted in public society. If it "fails" (what you consider to be a failure for them, btw? I do not know how to define Hamas "failing"), it will be a collective martyrism, and the will of Allah. Which will be the source of even more admiration and sympathy then.

You are looking at this with far too much (Western) reason and logic. When dealing with Islam, YOU ARE NOT DEALING WITH SOMEONE LIKE YOURSELF, but a totally different mindset and value system. Stop looking at it with your eyes. Look at it with THEIR eyes. Islam has it's own strange logic. You may think Hamas is not representative for Islam. But then you are wrong. It's combination of social welfare and fighting is a textbook example of representing Islam's spirit. Cutting off financial aid by Europe (500 million euros in recent years) is no real threat for them.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Abraham

"Every country gets the leader it deserves."
(quote from Yassir Arafat?)

No, old Chinese saying. Quoted by me repeatedly.

[U-214]

I agree with much of Skybird's post,in the sense that forcing democracy to people that aren't ready for it,can lead to dangerous situations.Democracy requires a society with maturity ,that discovers democracy through thirst for something better,not to use it as a means of grabbing power.It also requires a society intellectually evolved enough to use it wisely and elect the best.On the contrary when the electorate is formed by low level educated masses,the elected is simply the one who better can control masses and the means to do that are various,from religious hatred,to nationalism,to populism.And in the ME the danger of misusing democrasy is very high exactly because the masses aren't capable of controlling this "gift".

[SUBMAN1]

This is the worst thing that could happen to Palistine.

-S

[Abraham]

I think within a few months we'll see how things start moving or gettig stuck. Then we'll know wheter I was too optimistic or you too pessimistic.

The facts you give are known to me, of course. My interpretation op the options for Hamas are just different - in my eyes meore realistic (of course) - then your predictions.

But one thing I'll correct:

"Every country gets the leader it deserves."
old Chinese saying quoted by Skybird

[Abraham]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

This is the worst thing that could happen to Palistine.
-S

I agree that it was a bad result, but it did not "happen" to them, they deliberately chose it.
With an absolute majority!

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by U-214

Democracy requires a society with maturity ,that discovers democracy through thirst for something better,not to use it as a means of grabbing power .It also requires a society intellectually evolved enough to use it wisely and elect the best.

Absolutely. And while it can be argued that western people always vote for the best (I thinkt that event has become rare by now, as long as "best" does not mean "best manipulator"), the spirit of what you say corresponds to what I use to say, and repeatedly did say: freedom is no right (that depends on a cultures value system only), it is an ability that must be learned (and can be unlearned, too).

Abraham,
again you talk of "let's see in a few months". I think in years, and often even in decades.
While Islam thinks in centuries, the West thinks in legislative periods at best, and time periods between the release of two profit bilances - if it has that patience. Politician's decimale system is reduced to the numbers one, two, three, and then full stop, and election.

Faster! Quicker! Rapid! Time is money! Lifetime is wasted! But freedom only lies in the present moment. That's why Westerners are slaves of their timetables.