British election coming up--educate me please

[DAB]

Originally Posted by DAB

The Million pound question. I'll do my best.

Labour: Labour appear to have taken a kicking due to a percieved failure of the government to perform the radical agenda they promised in 1997. The Iraq war and their inability to correct the inadiquances of the Immigration system have cost them the ethnic minority vote which redistributed to either the Liberal Democrats or in some cases the Respect Unity Coalition Party.

A reduced majority signifies two things. The first is that for the the first time in 14 years, people will begin to think about the future after a Labour Goverment. More importantly, given that Tony Blair has signaled he will resign in 4 years time - people in the party may begin to consider whether it is worth him going sooner rather then later. A number of surviving Labour MP's were anti-war (Albert Owen in Ynys Mon for example) and given the lower majority - their power increases significantly.

You can expect therefore Labour to begin a slow move to the left, back into more firtile Social Democrat ground where they feel they can rely on their core support. British Politics will re-orentate towards the domestic agenda and Britain will probably start to be more reserved in the war on terror.

Conservative: The Conservatives have won 30 seats in this General Election. Enough for them to herald the rise of the party from the ashes (They were till yesterday considered to be in the same mess as the Democrats in the US) but not enough really for the party to claim it has been reinvigerated and has shaken off the stigma of the 80's. Michael Howard is too old to fight anouther election after this, so questions too will be raised about the leadership. Contenders such as Theresa May, Oliver Letwin, David Davis will begin to prepair for the contest which will see over a very peaceful handover of power to the new generation. The Conservative Policy in the next election will in all likleyhood be rather simular to the policy in this Parliament.

What is interesting is that the Conservatives have made impressive inroads into Liberal Democrat constituencies...indicating that the Liberal Democrats may be suffering from a perception that they are shifting to the left. This is likley to form the focus of future Conservative offensives in the South of England as they attempt to cut away the Liberal Democrat foothold.

Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats are an optomistic bunch. They will be out celebrating and suffering from hangovers well into the evening. But when the party dies down, questions will start to be asked. Where was the long herralded breakthrough. Why are the tories back on the offensive. What went wrong?

The Liberal Democrats notably failed to make any impact in Conservative dominated areas. In contrast, massive inroads were made in Labour areas. The LibDem's may only have won 10 or so new seats - but they have come a close second in many future elections. This will almost certainly be significant should the Labour Government collaspe at the next general election under a new leader.

The most unusual result for the LibDems was Ceredigion. Talked of as a target, in truth the party didn't expect to win the Welsh Speaking Seat on the Welsh Coast. Victory there however, expecially when coupled with the victory by the Labour party in Ynys Mon has meant the party has overtaken Plaid Cymru (Welsh for: Party of Wales) to become the Second Party in Wales. This may turn out to be a crippling blow for the Welsh Nationalists and secure the party a strong powerbase in the country.

Like the other two parties, questions may be raised now about the leadership of Charles Kennedy. The Liberal Democrats have a distaste for kicking out their leaders - but speculation may raise that in light on the inability of the party to break through...the party may be better off with a new leader. Given the now vunerable nature of Liberal / Conservative marginals - expect to see the right of the party manovour itself into position for the next leadership race. Should that happen, you will see a bitter contest between those who insist the future of the Liberal Democrats is as a near Socialist Party and those who believe in Free Market Libertarianism. (And may I say that I hope the Free Market Libertarian wing, of which I am an open member wins)

I thought given whats happening in the UK today...i'd post an update on this thread.

Labour: Well in Labour now, the Prime Minister is slowly emerging as a lame duck. No one talks about Tony Blair in the way they did. Everytime the name is mentioned, the name of his likley successor is not far behind. The major question in British politics is when he will go. His party wants him to go now, Blair will be keen to wait until the end of this parliament.

Labour is still trying to push through its 'radical' agenda...but it may suffer defeats. Reforms to the NHS may force Blairs resignation. And his party has a taste of blood. Labour rebels have now defeated Blair over Terrorism legislation which they claimed (correctly in my opinion) were too draconian civil liberties wise.

Conservatives: Well I said that the Conservatives would carry on as before. I now humbly eat my hat. David Cameron was elected leader late last year and seems to be moving the party towards a more socially Liberal stance. He is currently in his honeymoon stage - which all British political leaders enjoy, but it is noticable that people are now talking about the next Conservative government. But the maths is interesting... at current trends we may end up with a hung parliament where no one party has a majority of seats.

Liberal Democrats:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4590688.stm
Well the questions were asked, and the axe has fallen, it may not be quite the ides of January yet, but some have suggested that Brutus treated Ceaser better then the Liberal Democrats treated Kennedy. Ming Campbell has emerged as favourate for the leadership, but it is clear that the long predicted battle between the Social Democrats and the Economic Liberals will soon begin.

[Abraham]

A seven months old thread back. I thought I had a déja vu!
Perhaps we can celebrate it's birthday 5 months from now (if there is another scandal in British politics)...
Interesting to hear your opinion, though.

[lesrae]

As a fairly apolitical (they're all as bad as each other) voter, I have to say that Charles Kennedy's treatment by his colleagues is appaling. He owns up to having a drink problem and is crucified by the rest of the party for it. How many of them drink too much but don't admit it - I know who I'd rather trust.

[Konovalov]

Originally Posted by lesrae

As a fairly apolitical (they're all as bad as each other) voter, I have to say that Charles Kennedy's treatment by his colleagues is appaling. He owns up to having a drink problem and is crucified by the rest of the party for it. How many of them drink too much but don't admit it - I know who I'd rather trust.

I would agree with what you have said to an extent. I'm sure that there are other politicians in the Commons who suffer from alchoholism. The problem I think though with Kennedy is this. He had given personal assurances to his colleagues that he was dealing with the problem. He said he was on top of it and that it wouldn't impact on his role as leader of the Liberal Democrats. But since those personal assurances he has been ill of which I can remember a couple of occassions when he was giving speeches whilst sweating profusely and not looking well.

I'm afraid politics is a tough and sometimes very dirty business as exhibited in what is happening on Capital Hill, Wahsington DC at the moment with the Jack Abramoff scandel, Tom Delay's trial, the investigation of Bill Frist, and the "Scooter Libby" trial.