China's future at sea?

[Bort]

If you haven't noticed, lately china has been undertaking a huge buildup of its naval forces. They have launched several new classes of stealthy surface ships including one with a phased array AAW radar and VLS like an aegis. They have also built a new diesel sub and are working on two new nuclear sub designs. Add to that continued purchaces of Russian hardware like Sovremmennyys, Kilos, perhaps TU-22M Backfires in the future and the ex-ukrainian aircraft carrier Varyag that they appear to be fixing up in order to return to sevice, as well as possible and it would seem the Chinese are definately looking to become major players on both the regional and global naval stages. With the United States preoccupation in the Middle East and shifting focus from big high intensity wars to smaller low level wars against far weaker opponents and Donald Rumsfeld's willingness to cut ship and submarine levels and have the navy concentrate more on stikes against land targets, rather than prioritizing sea contol, it would seem that America is in a poor position to respond to a future conflict in east asia over perhaps Taiwan or the Spratly's involving China. Should the US and her allies be paying more attention to the situation, I say yes. What do you think?

Some links to more info:
http://www.sinodefence.com
http://www.china-defense.com
http://www.varyagworld.com

[Iceman]

Good questions...I would like to know what people think there future intentions might be.I don't know jack about this country really.If memory serves me Japan attacked them in WWII...I know they had some sort of civil uprising yrs back in Tinamen square I think....that was put down?To me maybe they are just playing catch up being as big a player as they are maybe they feel theyre military is inadequate..or maybe do they have thier eyes set on all of the cultures of Korea Vietnam or Japan ..I don't know but really things could probably be alot worse from them being as big as they are...Really if they did decide to take over some of the aforementioned countries what would Anyone be able to really do about it...I am thinking probably not much.

P.S. Thanks for giving some linkys there....links to more info is always appreciated.

[August]

I would like to know what people think there future intentions might be.

The purpose of a navy is to project military power beyond the shores of ones country. That should give you a pretty good idea.

[Kapitan]

the chinease millatery is out dated and obsolete even today in saying that the numbers could cause problems but its doubtful

china even in 10 years time its quite doubtful that china's navy will be any where near as advanced as americas in fact i dont even think it would happen in 20 years.

the new submarines are based on old russian designs not new ones the new SSN is reportedly based on the victor 3 and the new SSBN the yankee SSBN so i dont think america and britian will have too much trouble finding them and sinking them if nessasery.

[The Avon Lady]

This subject has many existing threads at SubSim. A quick search for "china" digs up:

China tests new ballistic missile submarine

Chinese Navy and rising tensions on Taiwan

Squabbles between China and Japan [url=http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20051002a1.htm]continue[/urll]. There have been many over the last year.

[Ghost Dog]

I might jump in on this topic myself if nobody minds. Im a graduate student with a degree in history (mainly russia/china) and political studies (strategic and defense studies).

i have written extensive works on the chinese military thier modernization programs. so rather than invite you all to read multiple 40 pages essays, I'll break it down for you.

I might be inclined to disagree with what kapitain has already said, somewhat. I dont consider china's navy to be 'obsolete'. while it lacks some of the capability of the U.S Navy, it could be considered the 3rd most powerful force in the region, after Japan and the U.S 7th fleet.

that being said, I have made some observations about the PLAN and come to the following conclusions. given the design trends of recent, it can be said that China appears to have the following goals for its naval force in the next foreseeable 20 years.

1. A primary goal of being a defensive littoral force. this includes high numbers of fast attack patrol craft and diesel subs which will defend China's coastline. after all, its the primary job of any navy to defends its parent country's coast.

2. A secondary, limited blue-water capability to project power into regional waters. This mission is currently being developed. new chinese ships, such as the Type 052C Aegis cruiser and Shang class SSN will provide the PLAN with some ability to project a naval force into the deep water areas of the pacific for a limited time. Many see this happening in two possible scenarios.

a. PLA military action against taiwan. The naval force will project its power outwards, while the coastal navy conducts operations against taiwan. The blue-water force will attempt to confront the U.S Navy and keep thier carrier air wings from directly striking the Chinese mainland. Even chinese defense experts agree, this will be a time saving measure, that eventually the U.S navy will overcome the PLA fleet, but perhaps the island of taiwan will have been secured by such time. giving the americans the politcal choice of no longer 'aiding' taiwan, but now going to war against china as 'one country'.

b. Limited blockade action against japan. This is more low-intensity conflict wherein the Chinese fleet is able to exectute a blockade action against japan to bring about political talks or trade treaties. combat may be sporadic or low-intensity. China's fleet is expanding the ability of its ships to operatate at sea for longer periods and the new ships are showing improvement in speed. enabling them to rapidly retreat to coastal waters should the situation warrant.


essentially, you can break down the two missions into a primary mission of sea denial, and secondary of sea control.

as for the type 093 SSN and type 094 SSBN, I will submit the following. some estimates compare the 093 to the Victor III. this is a rough comparison at best and more intended to give an idea to its mission and capabilties, not its acoustic loudness or sensors. Essentially it will be a multi-mission submarine, but its primary function will be to attack U.S carrier groups. many speculate the vessel will have a Wide Aperature Array, like the seawolf and virginia class. I think acoustically, she will be more similar to a Sierra I or Mike class. I think her diving depth will be somewhere around 500m. I think she will able to make just over 30 kts and I think her sonar set will be the same as the improved kilo class, with a possible towed array.

The type 094 SSBN, is much more speculative. comparing her to a yankee class may be a bit underrated. some estimates put the 094 more closer to Delta III, or even IV levels. this remains to be seen as its doubtfull the class has even been laid down yet.

[Kapitan]

couple of questions

where did china get agis tech from only japan and america have agies on thier ships

secondly the new SSBn is to carry 12 missiles is it not so there fore can only be en par with Delta one or Yankee 2

no reports of an 094 have been made but thats china i mean they launched the yuan before any body knew about it and the thing was already at sea before we heard

[Ghost Dog]

The type 052C 'aegis' destroyer appears to mount a phased-array radar system similar to the U.S SPY-1D. it is not known if this system uses russian X Band or a western style bandwidth. it is believed that the technology for this system was aquired through intelligence means. in other words, they stole it using spies. likely from the Japanese would be my personal guess.

this destroyer will also mount VLS HQ-9 SAM missiles, similar to the Russian land based S-300 (SA-10b Grumble) but reportedly using stolen US patriot technology for the guidance system.

The type 094 SSBN will carry 16 JL-2 missiles. the JL-2 SLBM will have a range of roughly 8,000 km, allowing the continental US to be targeted while operating within chinese waters.

hope this helps

[XabbaRus]

Originally Posted by Kapitain

couple of questions

where did china get agis tech from only japan and america have agies on thier ships

secondly the new SSBn is to carry 12 missiles is it not so there fore can only be en par with Delta one or Yankee 2

no reports of an 094 have been made but thats china i mean they launched the yuan before any body knew about it and the thing was already at sea before we heard

Wow, you can't compare capabilities based on how many missile tubes it has. So it has 12, but more than likely they have benefitted from modern Russian tech from the Delta IV at the least.

Basically I think China is looking to be in a position to kick ass 10 years from now...

[Kapitan]

possibly but in terms of tech america has it and thats what won the cold war and in fact every war previous

so im kinda in the middle

[Damo1977]

Well basically who cares?


One is run by the Empire, which is US money. Get over it arrogant servicemen and women, for I don't care, seen done that, so **** that talk, no con here. America is dying!!

[Gizzmoe]

Originally Posted by Kapitain

possibly but in terms of tech america has it and thats what won the cold war and in fact every war previous

Every war? They´ve lost the Vietnam war and Korea cannot be called a success. Iraq also shows that technology isn´t everything. And that the Cold War was "won" by "us" and not "them" had political reasons, tech had not much to do with it.

[Bort]

To me the most disconcerting thing about what the Chinese are doing is their targeting of areas the USN has softened up on as of late like ASW (Building a whole slew of diesel and nuke subs) and AAW ( The possible purchase of Backfires coupled with the retirement of the F-14 which was specifically designed to deal with them). Also sheer numbers is of concern, if the chinese can crank out a whole bunch of relatively modern subs and the aegis-like destroyers, they could overwhelm the US in a battle at sea.

A link to a site that illustrates this-
http://usships.org

[August]

Originally Posted by Damo1977

Well basically who cares?


One is run by the Empire, which is US money. Get over it arrogant servicemen and women, for I don't care, seen done that, so frick that talk, no con here. America is dying!!

Well aren't you just a lovely bit of sunshine.

[Kapitan]

if any more hurricanes hit the gulf america will go under and thats from bloomberg and CNBC americans have said it once wall street crashes america will drop like a stone and so will most over countrys

however britian and its remaining commonwelth intrest could remain afloat as it did the last time

its happend once can happen again