Tensions rise between North and South Korea

Jimbuna · 09-12-16, 07:42 AM

It's beginning to look like the south is reaching the end of its tether where the north is concerned following the latest nuclear test and are resorting to the same sort of threatening rhetoric as used so often by the north.

I've a feeling the south could probably win a military fight against the north should the US and China stay out of it but I doubt the Chinese would welcome the influx of refugees over its border.

Quote:

North Korea nuclear test: South would reduce Pyongyang 'to ashes'

South Korea has a plan to annihilate the North Korean capital if it shows any signs of mounting a nuclear attack, according to reports from Seoul.
A military source told the Yonhap news agency every part of Pyongyang "will be completely destroyed by ballistic missiles and high-explosives shells".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37331852

Onkel Neal · 09-12-16, 08:23 AM

South Korea prepares for 'worst case scenario' with North Korea

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/11/as...rea/index.html

Lack of US will and power projection is beginning to show.

Mr Quatro · 09-12-16, 08:40 AM

an evil axis of power in progress:http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/12/asia/c...sea-exercises/

Quote:

Chinese and Russian naval forces began joint exercises in the South China Sea on Monday, adding a new twist to ongoing tensions over Chinese island-building in the region.

The eight-day exercises will highlight marine corps units in "live-fire drills, sea crossing and island landing operations, and island defense and offense exercises,"

Oberon · 09-12-16, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

an evil axis of power in progress:http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/12/asia/c...sea-exercises/

That does not surprise me, if anything I'm surprised that Russia and China haven't joined together over their common foe before now.

Betonov · 09-12-16, 08:46 AM

My uneducated guess is that PRCs leash on DPRK is stronger than we are led to believe.

China, not N. korea, has too much too loose if war breaks out.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the nuclear program is just some old Chineese nukes being detonated.

Skybird · 09-12-16, 08:53 AM

With their claims for the whole South Chinese Sea, China strategically cannot allow to let South Korea win a war with the North, destroying or conquering or liberating it. Either the North wins all by itself, or China intervenes and either cracking the South open or at least enforcing a seize fire and securing of the status quo.

The real questions is whether China can afford to let North Korea win either. And whether the US indeed is willing to have a big scale war with China over Korea. Also, that the US could win over the South Chinese Sea, is increasingly in question. The tides are changing against the US. Obama did nothing to change that.

China has zero intererst in Korean unification. Not under Northern and not under Southern rules.

Some outcomes of conflicts and fights are more predictable than others. This one is extremely unpredictable. Stay away from it, all sides of you! Korea is a powderkeg that cannot be calculated.

Europe must finally learn to come up for its military security all by itself, to free the - financial - ressources the US needs to deal with China, reshifting them from Europe to the Far East and the Pacific fleet. Of course, it won't - we all know that Europe hates to spend on military, not to mentuion to the degree needed to compensate a dropout of the US and not to mention to go beyond that and even grow militarily stronger than the European state of NATO things is. But at last it can and must be said that this is what Europe should do. Instead we have narcisistic endless debates about a unified EU army and symbolically " containing" Russian divisions with re-allocating two or three batallions here and there - hilarious.

I know that the US claims that it can handle several conventional wars at the same time all by itself, if necessary. Its just that I do not believe that for one second. Nobody can do that anymore. Not if it is about wars against the heavyweights out there. And not in the age of cyberwarfare against the civilian infrastructure of countries.

And this: an accidental outbreak of a major war in that world area, is a very realistic concern.

Oberon · 09-12-16, 09:03 AM

And if things in Seoul weren't peachy enough already, they've just had a 5.1 earthquake.

Oberon · 09-12-16, 08:40 AM

The south has always been itching to invade the North, and its getting to the technological point where it could feasibly do it. DPRK nukes are the problem though, since the ROK doesn't have a real answer to that other than massed conventional retaliation and the hope that Washington will use their nukes, which I wouldn't bet on, De Gaulle got that one right. Especially since any nuclear attack on the DPRK will really upset the PRC who has the ability to retaliate in kind.

I doubt anything will come of it though, neither side has anything to gain from military action, but plenty to gain through distraction through the threat of military action.

Besides, what, feasibly, could the US do that it isn't already doing? Airstrikes on the DPRK? That's pretty much the narrative that the DPRK has been putting forward to its people anyway, that the US is ever ready to bomb the poor innocent people of Korea back into the stone age. Such an airstrike campaign could well escalate into a proper continuation of the Korean war anyway and could the US actually financially afford to fight it?

Anyway, I thought you guys were getting big on the old isolation train?

Platapus · 09-12-16, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oberon

The south has always been itching to invade the North....

When I was stationed in Korea in the late 80's, we often wondered what our mission was

Prevent the North from heading South
Prevent the South from heading North.

But at least the food was good.

mapuc · 09-12-16, 04:26 PM

1. This is not the first time NK does something and as usual the rest of the world and especially SK rise its voice against NK- If NK doesn't do anything more not-so-clever, everything will go back to normal in 10-14 days from now.

2. Since my youth and during my growth I have, until some years ago, always been told USA was in SK to protect it from NK.

Markus

09-12-16, 08:23 AM	#2
Onkel Neal Born to Run Silent Join Date: Jan 1997 Location: Cougar Trap, Texas Posts: 21,383 Downloads: 541 Uploads: 224	South Korea prepares for 'worst case scenario' with North Korea http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/11/as...rea/index.html Lack of US will and power projection is beginning to show. __________________ SUBSIM - 26 Years on the Web

09-12-16, 08:53 AM	#6
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	With their claims for the whole South Chinese Sea, China strategically cannot allow to let South Korea win a war with the North, destroying or conquering or liberating it. Either the North wins all by itself, or China intervenes and either cracking the South open or at least enforcing a seize fire and securing of the status quo. The real questions is whether China can afford to let North Korea win either. And whether the US indeed is willing to have a big scale war with China over Korea. Also, that the US could win over the South Chinese Sea, is increasingly in question. The tides are changing against the US. Obama did nothing to change that. China has zero intererst in Korean unification. Not under Northern and not under Southern rules. Some outcomes of conflicts and fights are more predictable than others. This one is extremely unpredictable. Stay away from it, all sides of you! Korea is a powderkeg that cannot be calculated. Europe must finally learn to come up for its military security all by itself, to free the - financial - ressources the US needs to deal with China, reshifting them from Europe to the Far East and the Pacific fleet. Of course, it won't - we all know that Europe hates to spend on military, not to mentuion to the degree needed to compensate a dropout of the US and not to mention to go beyond that and even grow militarily stronger than the European state of NATO things is. But at last it can and must be said that this is what Europe should do. Instead we have narcisistic endless debates about a unified EU army and symbolically " containing" Russian divisions with re-allocating two or three batallions here and there - hilarious. I know that the US claims that it can handle several conventional wars at the same time all by itself, if necessary. Its just that I do not believe that for one second. Nobody can do that anymore. Not if it is about wars against the heavyweights out there. And not in the age of cyberwarfare against the civilian infrastructure of countries. And this: an accidental outbreak of a major war in that world area, is a very realistic concern. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 09-12-16 at 09:13 AM.

09-12-16, 08:46 AM	#5
Betonov Navy Seal Join Date: May 2009 Location: Slovenia Posts: 8,647 Downloads: 26 Uploads: 0	My uneducated guess is that PRCs leash on DPRK is stronger than we are led to believe. China, not N. korea, has too much too loose if war breaks out. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the nuclear program is just some old Chineese nukes being detonated.

09-12-16, 09:03 AM	#7
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	And if things in Seoul weren't peachy enough already, they've just had a 5.1 earthquake.

09-12-16, 08:40 AM	#8
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	The south has always been itching to invade the North, and its getting to the technological point where it could feasibly do it. DPRK nukes are the problem though, since the ROK doesn't have a real answer to that other than massed conventional retaliation and the hope that Washington will use their nukes, which I wouldn't bet on, De Gaulle got that one right. Especially since any nuclear attack on the DPRK will really upset the PRC who has the ability to retaliate in kind. I doubt anything will come of it though, neither side has anything to gain from military action, but plenty to gain through distraction through the threat of military action. Besides, what, feasibly, could the US do that it isn't already doing? Airstrikes on the DPRK? That's pretty much the narrative that the DPRK has been putting forward to its people anyway, that the US is ever ready to bomb the poor innocent people of Korea back into the stone age. Such an airstrike campaign could well escalate into a proper continuation of the Korean war anyway and could the US actually financially afford to fight it? Anyway, I thought you guys were getting big on the old isolation train?

09-12-16, 04:26 PM	#10
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,535 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	1. This is not the first time NK does something and as usual the rest of the world and especially SK rise its voice against NK- If NK doesn't do anything more not-so-clever, everything will go back to normal in 10-14 days from now. 2. Since my youth and during my growth I have, until some years ago, always been told USA was in SK to protect it from NK. Markus