Will driving license be obsolete in the future ?

[mapuc]

Will driving license be obsolete in the future ?

That is what came into my mind, when I saw an episode on a Danish Science program- This episode was about future cars and the cars taking over more and more.

Some day in the future you can let your car take you from A to B without having done anything.

Maybe not a Driving License as we know it today, maybe some certificate-Instead of going to some driving school and use hours in traing to drive a car and hours of reading theories, you have some hours learning how to take the car from the place where it got broke to a "safe haven"

Markus

[Red October1984]

Or maybe instead of driver licensing....they introduce a new system that enters all of your information into the cars onboard computer so that the car is only registered to you. Nobody else will be able to drive the car and nobody will be able to use the car without entering license data.

Who will develop this? Ubisoft Auto, inc.

[Oberon]

I think it's going to be a few decades yet before driverless cars and transport come into full service. We've had driverless trains now for over two decades but they've remained either as small light transport devices (Docklands Light Railway) or have a driver on stand-by to take over if something goes wrong (Jubilee line underground) and the idea of taking the driver completely out of the cab has received a lot of negative pushback from Transport Unions. I can understand this, after all, it's going to make a lot of people unemployed if you remove the human factor from transportation driving. Likewise in aircraft, they can pretty much fly themselves on autopilot now, I'm not sure about take-off but I'm pretty sure the most recent Airbus (and therefore likely Boeing too) craft can land on autopilot. The amount of crew in the cockpit has reduced since I was a child, once upon a time there would be at least three, sometimes four. Pilot, Co-pilot, Navigator and Engineer. Now it's just Pilot and Co-pilot, with computers taking the role of Navigator and Engineer.

One question that I have seen come up again and again with regards to driverless cars, and it's one that I don't think that anyone has been able to get a good answer to. So far driverless cars have avoided accidents through their superior computing reflexes, but what would the computer car do if there came a time when it had to choose between crashing into a pedestrian, or into an inanimate object, thus injuring or killing the occupants of the car. Would it determine how many occupants are in the car and weigh that against the life of one person on the road and thus hit the person on the road and spare the four occupants of the car? How would it determine who to hurt and who to save?
That's a determination that is special to a road based vehicle as opposed to a train or ship or plane because of the open nature of the path the vehicle is travelling, you can't swerve around someone in a train .
I would be very interested to see how such a scenario would be played out by the onboard computer, because you can guarantee that it will happen at some point and when it does and someone is hurt, the media will be all over it like flies.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Oberon

what would the computer car do if there came a time when it had to choose between crashing into a pedestrian, or into an inanimate object, thus injuring or killing the occupants of the car. Would it determine how many occupants are in the car and weigh that against the life of one person on the road and thus hit the person on the road and spare the four occupants of the car? How would it determine who to hurt and who to save?
That's a determination that is special to a road based vehicle as opposed to a train or ship or plane because of the open nature of the path the vehicle is travelling, you can't swerve around someone in a train .
I would be very interested to see how such a scenario would be played out by the onboard computer, because you can guarantee that it will happen at some point and when it does and someone is hurt, the media will be all over it like flies.

Made me remember this article

http://www.iflscience.com/technology...-good-scenario

Markus

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Made me remember this article

http://www.iflscience.com/technology...-good-scenario

Markus

One possible solution would be to make the car and its occupants better able to withstand the possibility of a collision with a solid object, then the car would automatically serve off the road with the knowledge that even if it goes into a wall it won't kill the people inside it.
Quite how that happens is less simple, restraints can help and hinder equally, air bags are a possibility but if they deploy at the wrong time they can be problematic.
It's all a matter of Inertia and Mass.

Thanks Newton...

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Oberon

One possible solution would be to make the car and its occupants better able to withstand the possibility of a collision with a solid object, then the car would automatically serve off the road with the knowledge that even if it goes into a wall it won't kill the people inside it.
Quite how that happens is less simple, restraints can help and hinder equally, air bags are a possibility but if they deploy at the wrong time they can be problematic.
It's all a matter of Inertia and Mass.

Thanks Newton...

First this(about the safety for the driver and passengers)



Second

Got this terrible thought

Car computer speaking:

Sir I have decided on the behalf of the many to let you die bye bye

Markus

[Sailor Steve]

Reminds me of a joke I heard many years ago:

"Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome aboard the world's first fully automated flight. This aircraft is safer than any previous, and is flown entirely by computer, without pilots. The radar guidance technology is state-of-the-art, and there are seven levels of redundancy built in. We would like to reassure you that this is the safest aircraft ever built, and would only like to remind you that nothing can go wrong...can go wrong...can go wrong..."

[vienna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

One possible solution would be to make the car and its occupants better able to withstand the possibility of a collision with a solid object, then the car would automatically serve off the road with the knowledge that even if it goes into a wall it won't kill the people inside it.
Quite how that happens is less simple, restraints can help and hinder equally, air bags are a possibility but if they deploy at the wrong time they can be problematic.
It's all a matter of Inertia and Mass.

Thanks Newton...

The notion of restraints is fine only insofar as they are actually used. How many times have you seen news reports where someone is killed because they weren't wearing legally required seat belt restraints and thrown out of a car in an accident? One big problem is the fact a driverless car will just make it possible for the occupants to engage in other activities which may induce them to remove the restraints. We've all seen people putting on make up, shaving, reading, and any other number highly questionable activities while behind the wheel. A driverless car would be little more than a smaller personal bus and the occupants, including the nominal driver, would most likely be involved in activities occupying their attention other than management of the vehicle. It is an age-old problem: technology and progress is very often undone by human nature and human folly...


<O>

[ikalugin]

craft can land on autopilot.

Buran could land on autopilot. Modern USN aircraft could land on carriers on auto pilot if I remember it right.

TBH I dont think that crew's paychecks are a major cost in the aircraft operation because of the economies of scale crew wise and fuel costs/amortisation you get.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

I'm quite sure that driver's licenses are not going anywhere. Problem I see with lesser certificate training is that if person is only able to safely park car into side of the road or at the most drive few kilometres at slow speed, then what will you do when computer breaks down in middle of nowhere? Would you rather know how to drive yourself to closest town or wait for hours for "rescue" to arrive?

I'm 26 years old and if I survive as long as my grandparents I will die when I'm about 86 years old. That means 60 years I'm not sure if that is enough for me to witness the day of automated cars routinely operating in public roads.

Consider automated trains. Technology required for them isn't new. Oldest example I'm aware of is exprerimental system used in passenger service in New York City Subway's 42nd Street shuttle from 1959 to 1964 (mostly destroyed in Grand Central fire and never repaired). This system was semi-automatic with drivers operating doors (as in Jubilee line mentioned already) but technology itself could have enabled fully automatic operation.

Despite tremendous advancements in technology over last 50 years automated trains are still restricted to few fully grade separated metro systems instead of being in widespread use. Currently it looks like this won't change in another half a century.

[u crank]

As a person who has been driving a car for over 35 years I have made one singular observation. Cars are made much safer these days. Seat belts, air bags, better braking systems, better lights, and now proximity warning etc. I have not seen any improvement in driver training or requirements for licensing and driver training. The only thing I can think of is Drivers Ed which both of my children took but it is optional. I tested and received my drivers license in 1969, and have never been required to retest. That is absurd. I would be very much in favor of much stricter driving exams and retesting at regular intervals. I see people every day who do not know or ignore the basic rules of the road. Make cars as safe as possible but the problem is still the person behind the wheel.

[Aktungbby]

I don't think driver licenses are going away; they are the basic Amerikan police state ID card. Case in point: while on the job I was asked for ID by a well-meaning but nosey MARIN County gendarme who "asked for ID". So no problem: I pulled out my USA PASSPORT CARD which is the finest ID on the planet, and gave it to him. He thanked me and then asked for the driver license as he could not deal with a passport ID. Naturally, being on foot on my own turf with no time for rigamarole (also spelled rigmarole), I said "I'm not driving and you have the best ID in the world as per your request sir." And so it goes in small towns across "Merika". The officer was not amused...but his partner was. Even in 'Merika: I had complied and you only have to comply...ONCE!

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by u crank

As a person who has been driving a car for over 35 years I have made one singular observation. Cars are made much safer these days. Seat belts, air bags, better braking systems, better lights, and now proximity warning etc. I have not seen any improvement in driver training or requirements for licensing and driver training. The only thing I can think of is Drivers Ed which both of my children took but it is optional. I tested and received my drivers license in 1969, and have never been required to retest. That is absurd. I would be very much in favor of much stricter driving exams and retesting at regular intervals. I see people every day who do not know or ignore the basic rules of the road. Make cars as safe as possible but the problem is still the person behind the wheel.

Rgr that

[vienna]

Originally Posted by kraznyi_oktjabr

Despite tremendous advancements in technology over last 50 years automated trains are still restricted to few fully grade separated metro systems instead of being in widespread use. Currently it looks like this won't change in another half a century.

When the BART rail system was created in the late 60s in the San Francisco Bay Area, the trains were fully capable of autonomous operation and the BART authorities flirted with idea but public ill-ease with the idea made it necessary to have operators in the cabs. Oddly, there was public outcry over 'featherbedding' since the impression was the operators would simply be sitting in the cabs drawing a paycheck for doing nothing...


<O>

[mapuc]

We are talking about two things here

1. Safety-Prevent a drunken person to drive the car and prevent some thief from stealing it.

2. Psychology- Even if we had to go through a 5 years education to get a license to drive a car there will always be persons who drive like they had left the brain at home.



Markus