Math q: variance from probability equation.

Gargamel · 09-09-12, 07:59 PM

So I'm drawing 3 cards to a pair, 2's and jokers are wild. How do I find the variance (and ergo the standard deviation) from just the equation? I know I can plug a sufficient sample size of results into a spreadsheet and get a close empirical result, but I want a theoretical value.

So what Is the variance on drawing to three of a kind, and only three if a kind?

(8/50)+(8/49)(42/50)+(8/48)(42/50)(42/49)

Also please correct the basic equation if that's off, it's been a while since I crunched probabilities. And no this isn't homework or anything. I firmly believe Hoyle casino 2006's betting strategies for multi hand poker (wild party) are flawed. If they wrote this strategy anywhere close to the no limit holden strategy they included, then its wrong for sure.

I'm just seeing results which are not approaching my calculated EV, wondering if the play is of such a high variance that it's more of a gamble than it's worth.

My contention is that drawing for the full house when dealt a natural two pair is wrong. I think one should draw 3 instead, saving one pair. Pays on 3 of a kind or higher.

3OK- x1
FH - x3
4OK- x3
5OK- x9

And obviously I'm assuming discarded cards get reshuffled. If they didn't odds would increase some. I have no data either way on this. Never really looked for them when playing 50 hands at once.

09-09-12, 07:59 PM	#1
Gargamel Lucky Sailor Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Rome Posts: 4,273 Downloads: 81 Uploads: 0	Math q: variance from probability equation. So I'm drawing 3 cards to a pair, 2's and jokers are wild. How do I find the variance (and ergo the standard deviation) from just the equation? I know I can plug a sufficient sample size of results into a spreadsheet and get a close empirical result, but I want a theoretical value. So what Is the variance on drawing to three of a kind, and only three if a kind? (8/50)+(8/49)(42/50)+(8/48)(42/50)(42/49) Also please correct the basic equation if that's off, it's been a while since I crunched probabilities. And no this isn't homework or anything. I firmly believe Hoyle casino 2006's betting strategies for multi hand poker (wild party) are flawed. If they wrote this strategy anywhere close to the no limit holden strategy they included, then its wrong for sure. I'm just seeing results which are not approaching my calculated EV, wondering if the play is of such a high variance that it's more of a gamble than it's worth. My contention is that drawing for the full house when dealt a natural two pair is wrong. I think one should draw 3 instead, saving one pair. Pays on 3 of a kind or higher. 3OK- x1 FH - x3 4OK- x3 5OK- x9 And obviously I'm assuming discarded cards get reshuffled. If they didn't odds would increase some. I have no data either way on this. Never really looked for them when playing 50 hands at once. __________________ Luck is a residue of Design. Last edited by Gargamel; 09-09-12 at 08:39 PM.