Is that a stinger in your pocket ????????

[yubba]

Or are you happy too see me ????? It seems that 20,000 shoulder surface to air missles are missing or unaccountalbe from the Lybian arsenal, seen being loaded on rebel trucks and headed out into the desert just in time for the holidays guess I'm takeing the bus, reported by ABC's Good morning America. also had a AVG alert while typing this on this site this page . Virus filename, Exploit Blackhole Exploit Kit type 1889, so beware

[TLAM Strike]

No worries they were just stolen by Iran...

[yubba]

Still taken the bus, so the driver can fall asleep and drive across the line and take a petrol truck head on, I have such crappy luck. I guess standing in line waiting to get groped by the TSA, is kinda mute now, what would they be looking for now, parachutes ?????

[Stealhead]

First off I see no way that Libya would have been able to acquire Stinger (FIM-92) MANPADS they have not been on the Wests "friends" list for some years and the available stingers out there will have long since expired they only have a 5 or 6 year storage life span before the batteries are no good. Now terror groups could get hands on SA-7 and SA-14 or SA-18s 24s which are the Soviet/Russian block MANPADS.

Actually several airlines Australia's Quantas being one of them has been very strongly considering placing SAM counter measure systems on their planes.Perhaps they have even already started mounting them and have keep it hush hush I mean you do not really want to add in your flight safety flyer.I would imagine that most US airlines considered the counter measure systems considered the cost of them considered the cost of a plane getting shot down by a MANPAD and the "likely hood" and determined that it was cheaper to pay for deaths than to add the counter measures.

Also the press greatly over rates the value of MANPADS being used by a lay person a military man will receive 6 months training on there operation most of the terror groups just hand them out without providing any training and they likely lack the ability to even actually train on the things.So far they have been able to hit one plane a DHL aircraft in Iraq and that was 50% success they fired two SA-14s and only one hit the other missed if effective counter measures where in place on planes and around aerodromes the failure rate of a MANPAD could easily be 99%.

Honestly taking a bus is your least safe option you are now riding on the softest target possible if you look up how many terror attacks have been committed on buses well lets just say you would much rather fly.

Also the AVG alert could have been a false alarm although you may want to read this link about it: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/48...1889-a-990592/

[CCIP]

As far as I know, El-Al have some sort of counter-SAM system installed on their airplanes. Otherwise, planes are symbolic targets - even if buses are more likely to actually be blown up, the in the public eye an attack on a plane, even partially successful, will always be rated as more outrageous. I think when people like the Iranian Republican Guard and organized terror groups are involved, there is pretty good chance they'll be properly trained in using these things. Don't underestimate these guys - they are often more professional than the average soldier.

Granted, I think the chances of a MANPADS attack on anything flying within the US are extremely remote at best. They'd be higher in Europe, but I would still be surprised seeing one of those pulled off. It's the other places, particularly Africa, where you're still the most likely to see these missiles actually used. But if you're not flying to one of those places, you don't have that much to worry about.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Granted, I think the chances of a MANPADS attack on anything flying within the US are extremely remote at best.

I wonder how hard it would be to build a MANPADS with civilian parts.

All it really has to be is a pipe bomb on a rocket with some kind of guidance system.

[CCIP]

Well that'd require a good bit of technical skill and a lot of risk it, and still wouldn't be a very good weapon - with a high chance of getting yourself caught for it. Something tells me that, if anything, someone who's skilled and malicious enough to succeed at that project is more likely to just settle for being another Unabomber - far simpler construction, easy distribution, exponentially lower chance of getting caught. And fortunately, we've not seen too many of those in the US over the last few years. In fact we haven't really seen even a successful bombing in the US since 9/11, and that's far, far easier to do than building your own effective, self-guiding missile and having it work successfully.

On the other hand, a really crude MANPADS might just be a rocket-powered, bomb-carrying version of this:

[CaptainHaplo]

Originally Posted by Stealhead

First off I see no way that Libya would have been able to acquire Stinger (FIM-92) MANPADS they have not been on the Wests "friends" list for some years and the available stingers out there will have long since expired they only have a 5 or 6 year storage life span before the batteries are no good. Now terror groups could get hands on SA-7 and SA-14 or SA-18s 24s which are the Soviet/Russian block MANPADS.

These were not stingers. They were russian made - probably IGLA or IGLA-s.

Also the press greatly over rates the value of MANPADS being used by a lay person a military man will receive 6 months training on there operation most of the terror groups just hand them out without providing any training and they likely lack the ability to even actually train on the things.So far they have been able to hit one plane a DHL aircraft in Iraq and that was 50% success they fired two SA-14s and only one hit the other missed if effective counter measures where in place on planes and around aerodromes the failure rate of a MANPAD could easily be 99%.

While SAM fire (regardless of source) is generally over-rated in success rates, your simply dead wrong on the issue of training. Any person (assuming they are physically capable) with a median IQ can successfully operate a MANPAD with one hour of training or less in most cases. They are, today, very capable "point and shoot" FnF weapons that require little from the operator.

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

I wonder how hard it would be to build a MANPADS with civilian parts.

All it really has to be is a pipe bomb on a rocket with some kind of guidance system.

Lot more complicated than that TLAM. Guidance means logic circuits to make use of a control system. Warhead detonation is fragmentation within a certain range. A pipe bomb is going to do next to nothing if it goes off 10 feet from an airframe unless you get really lucky.

It would actually be easier to build a radar controlled AA system. Probably cheaper too. And wouldn't draw nearly the attention. Almost (if not all) of the components (minus the gun system itself) could be COTS.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by CaptainHaplo

Lot more complicated than that TLAM. Guidance means logic circuits to make use of a control system. Warhead detonation is fragmentation within a certain range. A pipe bomb is going to do next to nothing if it goes off 10 feet from an airframe unless you get really lucky.

It would actually be easier to build a radar controlled AA system. Probably cheaper too. And wouldn't draw nearly the attention. Almost (if not all) of the components (minus the gun system itself) could be COTS.

I was thinking something like the CLOS system on the Blowpipe or TOW. The user controls the fins of the rocket to guide it to the target. As CCIP suggested a RC Rocket Plane with a bomb.

If one was going for a gun system it might be simpler to make some kind of mechanical leading sight. Speed and Range to say an aircraft taking off will be known with a little research.

But I think the cheapest method would be just to park a van along the road near where the end of the runway is and have a couple of guys unload a few AK-47s in the direction of a plane taking off.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

If one was going for a gun system it might be simpler to make some kind of mechanical leading sight. Speed and Range to say an aircraft taking off will be known with a little research.

Yeah, that's one of the things that does make planes easy targets for unsophisticated systems. Departure and approach paths, speeds and altitudes are something that's very easy to reliably predict. While planes on takeoff are more vulnerable to traditional IR-guided manpads (due to more reliable heat signature), arguably arriving planes flying the ILS are easier targets for unsophisticated systems like this. You can know their speed, heading and altitude almost to a t without requiring any instrumentation whatsoever.

But again, I'm leaning towards the idea that people clever enough to pull something like this off and malicious enough to do the deed are more likely to also do the risk assessment and decide on other targets for their dirty work instead. It's still a lot of risk for an unlikely payoff.

[the_tyrant]

Hmm,
Tom Clancy first wrote about using a plane to crash into buildings in 1996
9/11 happened in 2001

In the new Tom Clancy book published this year, the terrorists used SAMs to destroy planes

[Oberon]

So we've got about five years then.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

Hmm,
Tom Clancy first wrote about using a plane to crash into buildings in 1996

And in that book the Stingers the USSS used to try and stop the plane were totally ineffective.

[August]

Didn't Clancy also write about a nuclear bomb detonation during a football game?

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by August

Didn't Clancy also write about a nuclear bomb detonation during a football game?

Don't worry the NE Patriots weren't in that one so I think your safe.