So, who do you think will be Iraq's next leader?

subchaser12 · 12-16-08, 04:36 AM

When America pulls out Iraq will be under new management. I figure Maliki will be in the morgue while the last of the US troops are loading up the last helicopters in the green zone.

My vote is the Cleric Muktada Al-Sadr, he leads the madhi army I think. He has been playing it pretty cool, conserving his forces, helping the people and building supports while he watches American patience run thin. Now Obama is in office it's only a matter of time, not much time at that.

Opinions?

baggygreen · 12-16-08, 05:14 AM

I'm sorry, but my initial reaction is not a nice one to this thread. Perhaps much of the reaction to Geetrue's thread about Obama awaits this as well.

August · 12-16-08, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baggygreen

I'm sorry, but my initial reaction is not a nice one to this thread. Perhaps much of the reaction to Geetrue's thread about Obama awaits this as well.

That is his intention BG.

Skybird · 12-16-08, 08:22 AM

Al-Sadr is not in the position to openly claim power right now, or in two years. Theological, political and military rasons are against this - currently. He will gain influence in the hidden, and act behind the curtains, waiting for his hour. That hour maybe will be given by Iranian clocks. Until then he will work on raising his theological status and raise to religious ranks allowing him more power.

The Iraqi goivernment will be a weak one, and will more or less quickly turn from a superficial democratic to a totalitarian, police-state one, if it wants to keep the pieces of Iraq together. sectarianism and corruption will remain to be crippling problems. Police and secret police will not be under sufficient political control.

A stabilising factor could be the Iraqi army leadership - eventually, and if it could manage to become strong enough before the americans leave. but this also will work against the idea of a western-style democracy in Iraq.

Iran will just sit on the sideline until 2011, and watch and wait patiently. Time is working for them. the leave of the last american combat units, will mean card blanche for them. Do not be deceived by that currently they seem to play ball. It's just tactics. Like Al-Sadr, they are waiting for their hour.

the country's politics will remain to be shady and non-transparent. the long-time advantage for getting the upper hand lies with the Iranians and Iraqi Shia clerics. They have all the time they want, and in no way must be in a hurry.

Conclusion: Iraq is doomed to become a failed state - once again. I already compare it to Pakistan.

Skybird · 12-16-08, 11:49 AM

Indeed, it is kind of a deja-vu.

nikimcbee · 12-16-08, 03:54 PM

i was going to guess Steed.

subchaser12 · 12-16-08, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikhayl

A failed state with boatloads of American weapons originally intended to fight the "villains", that sounds awfully familiar doesn't it ?

Same **** different war. Since no one reads books in America everyone thinks it's a first.

Morts · 12-16-08, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by subchaser12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikhayl

A failed state with boatloads of American weapons originally intended to fight the "villains", that sounds awfully familiar doesn't it ?

Same **** different war. Since no one reads books in America everyone thinks it's a first.

perhaps you should read a book if thats your opinion

subchaser12 · 12-16-08, 04:41 PM

America needs to set up cameras all over Iraq after we leave. The Iraqi battles over what warlord takes over the green zone would be enough to get me to sign up for pay per view.

12-16-08, 04:36 AM	#1
subchaser12 Sonar Guy Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Spam, duplicate accounts, provoking moderators. Posts: 377 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	So, who do you think will be Iraq's next leader? When America pulls out Iraq will be under new management. I figure Maliki will be in the morgue while the last of the US troops are loading up the last helicopters in the green zone. My vote is the Cleric Muktada Al-Sadr, he leads the madhi army I think. He has been playing it pretty cool, conserving his forces, helping the people and building supports while he watches American patience run thin. Now Obama is in office it's only a matter of time, not much time at that. Opinions?

12-16-08, 08:22 AM	#4
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Al-Sadr is not in the position to openly claim power right now, or in two years. Theological, political and military rasons are against this - currently. He will gain influence in the hidden, and act behind the curtains, waiting for his hour. That hour maybe will be given by Iranian clocks. Until then he will work on raising his theological status and raise to religious ranks allowing him more power. The Iraqi goivernment will be a weak one, and will more or less quickly turn from a superficial democratic to a totalitarian, police-state one, if it wants to keep the pieces of Iraq together. sectarianism and corruption will remain to be crippling problems. Police and secret police will not be under sufficient political control. A stabilising factor could be the Iraqi army leadership - eventually, and if it could manage to become strong enough before the americans leave. but this also will work against the idea of a western-style democracy in Iraq. Iran will just sit on the sideline until 2011, and watch and wait patiently. Time is working for them. the leave of the last american combat units, will mean card blanche for them. Do not be deceived by that currently they seem to play ball. It's just tactics. Like Al-Sadr, they are waiting for their hour. the country's politics will remain to be shady and non-transparent. the long-time advantage for getting the upper hand lies with the Iranians and Iraqi Shia clerics. They have all the time they want, and in no way must be in a hurry. Conclusion: Iraq is doomed to become a failed state - once again. I already compare it to Pakistan. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 12-16-08 at 08:25 AM.

12-16-08, 11:49 AM	#5
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Indeed, it is kind of a deja-vu. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

12-16-08, 03:54 PM	#6
nikimcbee Fleet Admiral Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Patroling the Slot. Posts: 17,952 Downloads: 90 Uploads: 0	i was going to guess Steed. __________________

12-16-08, 05:14 AM	#2
baggygreen Sea Lord Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Canberra, ACT, Down Under (really On Top) Posts: 1,880 Downloads: 7 Uploads: 0	I'm sorry, but my initial reaction is not a nice one to this thread. Perhaps much of the reaction to Geetrue's thread about Obama awaits this as well.

12-16-08, 04:41 PM	#9
subchaser12 Sonar Guy Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Spam, duplicate accounts, provoking moderators. Posts: 377 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	America needs to set up cameras all over Iraq after we leave. The Iraqi battles over what warlord takes over the green zone would be enough to get me to sign up for pay per view.