Iran test fires a 'new' missle

[SteamWake]

Iran continues to develop its weapon systems.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8708211020

[Zachstar]

Unless they suddenly skip a generation and develop an actual ICBM class warhead I will not worry. Until then I HIGHLY doubt they can fit a REALLY heavy warhead (Like the NK version) on these sticks.

[bookworm_020]

Iran says its ballistic missiles, such as the advanced Shahab-3 capable of hitting targets within a range of 2,000 kilometers, are intended for defensive purposes

Defence against what? an invasion of camels from Afganistan???

I think it's just try to raise the oil price as Iran, as well as other OPEC countries would like to see the oil price back at $100 barrel.

[Jimbuna]

Iran has warned that in case of an attack by either the US or Israel, it will target 32 American bases in the Middle East and close the strategic Strait of Hormoz.

An estimated 40 percent of the world's oil supply passes through the waterway.

In a Sep. 11 report, the Washington Institute for the Near East Policy says that in the two decades since the Iran-Iraq War, the Islamic Republic has excelled in naval capabilities and is able to wage unique asymmetric warfare against larger naval forces.
According to the report, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) has been transformed into a highly motivated, well-equipped, and well-financed force and is effectively in control of the world's oil lifeline, the Strait of Hormuz.

Oh....and I can just see the US and (hopefully) the rest of the western world putting up with that sort of crap

[Letum]

Originally Posted by bookworm_020

Defence against what?

Don't tell me you have never heard the suggestion of various countries invading Iran.
Everyone is after them!

Where I Iranian I would be wanting all the security I could get and a little more.

[Skybird]

Striking at Iran and invading Iran are two separate things.

Agents in warheads, wether they be nuclear or biological, eventually can be delivered by other means as well, and terrorists smuggling these things has always been a greater concern for me. Even a nuclear armed Iran is less the danger, than the possibility - that I take for a certain - that this would mean Iranian proliferation of nukes to factions that you do not wish to see with such a capacity, and it would provoke a nuclear amrs race as well. Saudi Arabia and Egypt would launch their own programs in a reaction to Iran, which is more or less open not only their rival, but enemy. In fct there are clear indications reported since three years that both countries already are at it, especially the Saudis. Thus, the missile test itself should not be overestimated in importance. Wether or not the Iranians are capable to produce these nasty kind of addons for it - that is the decisive question. and while missiles work fast in delivering them, they are not the only carrier option.

If there ever will go off a nuke in the West, it most likely will have entered the country as part of a regular delivery of items of international trade. Maybe it travels by ship, and is declared as a refrigerator. Or it is split into parts and reconstructed in the target country. This danger is far more serious than a dozen of Iranian nuclear missile. and this scenario, and the nuclear arms race it would cause in the ME, is the reason why nukes for Iran shall not be alloweed, at no cost - even at cost of taking the worst case options. I'm already pissed with Pakistan, I do not want to get a second Pakistan which may behave even worse.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

Oh....and I can just see the US and (hopefully) the rest of the western world putting up with that sort of crap

That they can seal the strait, you better take as guaranteed. Some floating mines, some hidden land-based missiles, one or two subs in hidden wait, or some rubber boats operating in the dark to get within striking range for Panzerfausts or suicide attacks - and that's it. Asymmetrical war is great for the weaker side, and much less expensive.

[SteamWake]

Latest news is that this test was a failure, a 'mid flight error' and the missle failed to reach its target.

[Skybird]

No, no failure, it exactly went to where Allah decided to lead it to - so everything according to the great plan.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

That they can seal the strait, you better take as guaranteed. Some floating mines, some hidden land-based missiles, one or two subs in hidden wait, or some rubber boats operating in the dark to get within striking range for Panzerfausts or suicide attacks - and that's it. Asymmetrical war is great for the weaker side, and much less expensive.

Nope I reckon Tomahawk strikes and repeated/precision air strikes (fed by satellite data, AWACS etc) to name just two, would put paid to any threat within striking distance of the Stratecically important Strait of Hormuz.

The stakes (loss of oil flow) to the west are far too high for half baked measures.

Iran would suffer a swift and decisive beating to reiterate what was at stake.

The alternative scenario would quite clearly be an intolerable and unacceptable situation for the US and her allies.

I hope it never comes to this mind......but you can only push your adversary so far before a reaction results.

As you alluded to earlier, I believe there are western dependants/countries in the region that privately would welcome Iran being brought back into line (non nuclear capability).

Originally Posted by SteamWake

Latest news is that this test was a failure, a 'mid flight error' and the missle failed to reach its target.

So, it missed the ground, did it? :rotfl:

Originally Posted by jimbuna

Nope I reckon Tomahawk strikes and repeated/precision air strikes (fed by satellite data, AWACS etc) to name just two, would put paid to any threat within striking distance of the Stratecically important Strait of Hormuz.

The stakes (loss of oil flow) to the west are far too high for half baked measures.

Iran would suffer a swift and decisive beating to reiterate what was at stake.

The alternative scenario would quite clearly be an intolerable and unacceptable situation for the US and her allies.

I hope it never comes to this mind......but you can only push your adversary so far before a reaction results.

As you alluded to earlier, I believe there are western dependants/countries in the region that privately would welcome Iran being brought back into line (non nuclear capability).

Couldn't someone make this into a "Command and Conquer" scenerio? Let us "geeks" figure out how to get it done, and then sell the idea to Washington.

[SteamWake]

Originally Posted by Zayphod

Couldn't someone make this into a "Command and Conquer" scenerio? Let us "geeks" figure out how to get it done, and then sell the idea to Washington.

"How about a nice game of Chess..." :rotfl:

Wonder if anyone will get that quote.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by SteamWake

"How about a nice game of Chess..." :rotfl:

Wonder if anyone will get that quote.

Wargames (1983)

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

Nope I reckon Tomahawk strikes and repeated/precision air strikes (fed by satellite data, AWACS etc) to name just two, would put paid to any threat within striking distance of the Stratecically important Strait of Hormuz.

[sarcasm on]
Ach...?
[sarcasm off]

Never heared that Tomahwks are used to explode drifting sea mines, or to take out undeteced targets like a three man missile crew, or an explosive-loaded speed-boat moving in in the dark.

Also, airborn and orbit-born detection has limits.

Jim, you see it too easy, and very much so. Mining a strait is simple. Getting it clear again or move through it - that is the tricky part. And never I have heared or read a serious military experts putting serious doubts on the Iranian's capability to close the straits, if they want. Ignroing the mines, the place is infested not only with Silkworms, but more modern chinese missiles as well. If you think you get a tanker (or a task force) through that needle's eye with the Iranians not wanting that, then you are dreaming. Even for a sub it probably would be a risky operation under wartime conditions, due to the shallow water.