Breakthrough Advance in the China/Taiwan Situation

Stealth Hunter · 11-03-08, 12:57 AM

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/as...ina/index.html

Well, ever since KMT candidate Ma-Yin Jio was elected early this year, he has vowed to try and make serious progress in the cross-strait situation that has stalled ever since the late Lee period almost 10 years ago.

Well some progress is being made, though probably not as well as he's hoped. There are now standard cross-strait flights that no longer require them to land in Hong Kong or another country, but they still often take weird and long routes and flights are limited. Tourism opened up more, but the paperwork and restriction is crazy. Trade talks are starting, but the recent Melamine Scandal seriously messed things up.

So with all this, the first high ranking PRC visits for official talks, which is a real first. As previous talks were usually held in Hong Kong, while PRC officials that visit are either retired or minor.

Obviously, this a a major step that's going to stir up a lot of noise on all sides in Asia.

PeriscopeDepth · 11-03-08, 01:49 AM

As a disclaimer, I don't know if Asia Times is considered liberal/conservative or what. But here's the article.

http://atimes.com/atimes/China/JJ31Ad01.html

PD

Skybird · 11-03-08, 07:08 AM

Both Taiwan and China slowly approaching onto each other and one day peacefully reuniting or at least forming a close alliance still is the by far most likely scenario for the situation, imo, and I always thought so. If there will be a war in the region with the US being one party in it, maybe it will be claimed that it is about Taiwan, but in reality maritime ressource fields will be the cause behind it - no serious Chinese invasion of Taiwan and destroying the Island in order to take it.

Maybe it will one day happen very quickly, like in case of German reunification as well, that came as so much an surprise and went so fast that London and Washington even tried to put a foot on the brake and convicing Moscow to stop it, that much overrolled they were by the events. The least prepared people of all were we (West)Germans ourselves.

As a German, I certainly wish the Chinese on both sides of the strait good luck.

Zachstar · 11-03-08, 12:13 PM

From what I can tell both sides claim the territory of the other so that is what makes negotiation so much difficult.

My guess is in the end China will accept Taiwan as it is and Taiwan will accept the PRC as legit. And of course they both win because then it drives out US influence and increases trade.

China is not stupid they know the Taiwan situation is only harming otherwise flawless trade. China does not need Taiwan in order to continue growing rapidly.

AntEater · 11-03-08, 01:16 PM

Strange, after years of war paranoia, everybody seems to be getting their acts together recently.
China-Taiwan, Israel-Syria, Armenia-Azerbijan...
Effects of the financial crisis?
:rotfl:

Yahoshua · 11-03-08, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zachstar

From what I can tell both sides claim the territory of the other so that is what makes negotiation so much difficult.

My guess is in the end China will accept Taiwan as it is and Taiwan will accept the PRC as legit. And of course they both win because then it drives out US influence and increases trade.

China is not stupid they know the Taiwan situation is only harming otherwise flawless trade. China does not need Taiwan in order to continue growing rapidly.

It may also give a means for the Chinese to acquire more US produced technology via Taiwan (ie. the AEGIS system) if the PRC plays their cards right. "Course this will be years down the road.

baggygreen · 11-04-08, 01:39 AM

The Chinese have much to gain, and very little (to our way of thinking) to lose by normalising relations with Taiwan.

The Taiwanese have little to lose initially, given they stand to make a lot of cash by selling goods to China.

You'll have to forgive my cynicism, but to lose face in most Asian nations is the worst thing that can happen. For China to recognise Taiwan would involve a monumental backflip on the preceding 60 years. I can't see them doing that.

Like sky says, any conflict there is likely to be based around the resources in the South China Sea, however I would expect it to spread to Taiwan's airfields and other military facilities fairly quickly.

I simply can't imagine a world in which China agreed to recognise Taiwan.

11-03-08, 12:57 AM	#1
Stealth Hunter Silent Hunter Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Y'ha-Nthlei Posts: 4,262 Downloads: 19 Uploads: 0	Breakthrough Advance in the China/Taiwan Situation http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/as...ina/index.html Well, ever since KMT candidate Ma-Yin Jio was elected early this year, he has vowed to try and make serious progress in the cross-strait situation that has stalled ever since the late Lee period almost 10 years ago. Well some progress is being made, though probably not as well as he's hoped. There are now standard cross-strait flights that no longer require them to land in Hong Kong or another country, but they still often take weird and long routes and flights are limited. Tourism opened up more, but the paperwork and restriction is crazy. Trade talks are starting, but the recent Melamine Scandal seriously messed things up. So with all this, the first high ranking PRC visits for official talks, which is a real first. As previous talks were usually held in Hong Kong, while PRC officials that visit are either retired or minor. Obviously, this a a major step that's going to stir up a lot of noise on all sides in Asia.

11-03-08, 07:08 AM	#3
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,603 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Both Taiwan and China slowly approaching onto each other and one day peacefully reuniting or at least forming a close alliance still is the by far most likely scenario for the situation, imo, and I always thought so. If there will be a war in the region with the US being one party in it, maybe it will be claimed that it is about Taiwan, but in reality maritime ressource fields will be the cause behind it - no serious Chinese invasion of Taiwan and destroying the Island in order to take it. Maybe it will one day happen very quickly, like in case of German reunification as well, that came as so much an surprise and went so fast that London and Washington even tried to put a foot on the brake and convicing Moscow to stop it, that much overrolled they were by the events. The least prepared people of all were we (West)Germans ourselves. As a German, I certainly wish the Chinese on both sides of the strait good luck. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 11-03-08 at 07:12 AM.

11-03-08, 12:13 PM	#4
Zachstar Sea Lord Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shreveport, Louisiana Posts: 1,956 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	From what I can tell both sides claim the territory of the other so that is what makes negotiation so much difficult. My guess is in the end China will accept Taiwan as it is and Taiwan will accept the PRC as legit. And of course they both win because then it drives out US influence and increases trade. China is not stupid they know the Taiwan situation is only harming otherwise flawless trade. China does not need Taiwan in order to continue growing rapidly. __________________

11-03-08, 01:16 PM	#5
AntEater Grey Wolf Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Germany Posts: 936 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Strange, after years of war paranoia, everybody seems to be getting their acts together recently. China-Taiwan, Israel-Syria, Armenia-Azerbijan... Effects of the financial crisis? :rotfl: __________________

11-03-08, 01:49 AM	#2
PeriscopeDepth Sea Lord Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Pacific NW Posts: 1,894 Downloads: 6 Uploads: 0	As a disclaimer, I don't know if Asia Times is considered liberal/conservative or what. But here's the article. http://atimes.com/atimes/China/JJ31Ad01.html PD

11-04-08, 01:39 AM	#7
baggygreen Sea Lord Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Canberra, ACT, Down Under (really On Top) Posts: 1,880 Downloads: 7 Uploads: 0	The Chinese have much to gain, and very little (to our way of thinking) to lose by normalising relations with Taiwan. The Taiwanese have little to lose initially, given they stand to make a lot of cash by selling goods to China. You'll have to forgive my cynicism, but to lose face in most Asian nations is the worst thing that can happen. For China to recognise Taiwan would involve a monumental backflip on the preceding 60 years. I can't see them doing that. Like sky says, any conflict there is likely to be based around the resources in the South China Sea, however I would expect it to spread to Taiwan's airfields and other military facilities fairly quickly. I simply can't imagine a world in which China agreed to recognise Taiwan.