Military buildup

Is it me or does anyone else feel there is a huge global military buildup going on. There seems to be somekind of global madness effecting our thinking, the UK is building two Aircraft carriers plus a small flotilla of Submarines, which in truth we can't afford. Russia, China, India, all seem to be busy building or launching warships. Canada and Australia also seem to be concerned about how seaworthy their boats are, and it looks like the pressure is on to build or buy new ones, but why and where is this pressure coming from, who's applying it and why.

[CCIP]

Not really. New military tech is going to be built regardless of time, and if you look at the pace of acquisition of military equipment now, it's been steadily in decline in most of the Western world. It's been relatively steady in China, and fluctuating quite a bit in the developing world.

Contrary to building a mass of new tech, a lot of countries are slashing budgets and cutting programs. The US and the UK have axed many a program over the last few years, and retired significant numbers of ships, planes and other equipment well before due date. Canada and Australia at the moment are also at relative lows as far as capability, and although debate goes on in both countries, their new acquisitions are pretty insignificant.

Otherwise new warships and such will always be launched. That's just a natural cycle of life for military equipment. It's the numbers that really matter, and the numbers are actually quite low.

[Jimbuna]

Well I was of the impression the UK at least was downsizing...one of those carriers is already earmarked for mothballing before she is completed and it is not yet certain whether the other will have any aircraft to grace her decks

[magicstix]

Originally Posted by sidslotm

Is it me or does anyone else feel there is a huge global military buildup going on. There seems to be somekind of global madness effecting our thinking, the UK is building two Aircraft carriers plus a small flotilla of Submarines, which in truth we can't afford. Russia, China, India, all seem to be busy building or launching warships. Canada and Australia also seem to be concerned about how seaworthy their boats are, and it looks like the pressure is on to build or buy new ones, but why and where is this pressure coming from, who's applying it and why.

It's no secret what China is up to. They're building a blue water navy specifically for challenging the USA in their obsession with Taiwan.. They're already starting to throw their weight around with their neighbors to enforce other policy goals like ownership of the South China Sea. This leads to all the regional powers wanting to build up their militaries to counter the Chinese threat.

Australia has real reason to be concerned about the seaworthines of their subs, as the Collins class has an abysmal availability rate. Combine this with the fact that .au can't keep enough submariners in their navy to crew the subs, and they have a major problem that needs to be addressed.

Russia wants to reclaim the glory of the old Soviet Empire, and has tons of oil money to burn. Their military has been in severe disarray since the collapse of the USSR, so they do actually have a need to modernize some of their military. However, everyone remembers the cold war and Soviet aggression, so Russia's neighbors of course want to counter this threat.

To be fair, it's not just Russia and China expanding, but also smaller regional players (Iran, India, etc...). However, it seems the only military not expanding, or even maintaining its strength, is the USA, for better or worse.

To be honest, I think the world is a lot like it was in the early 1930s, just waiting for a spark to kick off a major world conflict.

To be honest, I think the world is a lot like it was in the early 1930s, just waiting for a spark to kick off a major world conflict.

I hope your wrong my friend.

[magicstix]

Originally Posted by sidslotm

I hope your wrong my friend.

The sad thing is, the USA let its military decay in the '30s as well, but today we don't have the manufacturing infrastructure to ramp up like we did in WW2 if something bad happens.

[Oberon]

The UK is definitely not upsizing our military, it's a major downsizing in fact because we can't afford it. The carriers and destroyers will be replacing ships that are coming out of service right now, which means that between now and the carriers being launched all we will have are helicopter carriers.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by magicstix

However, it seems the only military not expanding, or even maintaining its strength, is the USA, for better or worse.

I'd add the UK to that statement without any hesitation at all.

[magicstix]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

I'd add the UK to that statement without any hesitation at all.

Very well, let's say the West as a whole is allowing its military to decay, which is an even more dangerous thought.

[Oberon]

China will not start anything over Taiwan, not yet anyway and probably not until about 2015-2018, they've still got a way to go on their anti-carrier abilities. I think what Beijings ultimate goal is, is to discourage the idea of American intervention before any war has even begun. It can do this by increasing the capability of its economy and its military, until the US can no longer afford to compete. At that point it then makes a thinly veiled threat at Taipei which is something along the lines of "if you do not join us as a Special Administration Region then we're going to blockade you until you run out of money and starve" and Taipei will realise that their position without US aid is untenable and fold.
The last thing China wants to do is go to war with America or initiate a costly military attack on Taiwan. Beijing wants Taiwan intact, it need Taiwan intact. Most of Chinas trade is with Taiwan and surrounding nations, and if it launches a war there it will completely screw over its economy and that is about the only thing keeping China afloat at the moment and preventing massive internal social unrest (although if the gap between the poor interior and rich exterior continues to grow then unrest could be seen anyway). Therefore China will exert as much pressure as it can on its neighbours without actually warring on them, after all, as Sun Tzu said "True excellence comes from achieving victory without fighting."

One of the things that aircraft carriers will need is escorts, destroyers, cruisers even, especially when at sea. A carrier has to be one of the most expensive pieces of hardware in the military tool box.

[magicstix]

Originally Posted by Oberon

China will not start anything over Taiwan, not yet anyway and probably not until about 2015-2018, they've still got a way to go on their anti-carrier abilities. I think what Beijings ultimate goal is, is to discourage the idea of American intervention before any war has even begun. It can do this by increasing the capability of its economy and its military, until the US can no longer afford to compete. At that point it then makes a thinly veiled threat at Taipei which is something along the lines of "if you do not join us as a Special Administration Region then we're going to blockade you until you run out of money and starve" and Taipei will realise that their position without US aid is untenable and fold.
The last thing China wants to do is go to war with America or initiate a costly military attack on Taiwan. Beijing wants Taiwan intact, it need Taiwan intact. Most of Chinas trade is with Taiwan and surrounding nations, and if it launches a war there it will completely screw over its economy and that is about the only thing keeping China afloat at the moment and preventing massive internal social unrest (although if the gap between the poor interior and rich exterior continues to grow then unrest could be seen anyway). Therefore China will exert as much pressure as it can on its neighbours without actually warring on them, after all, as Sun Tzu said "True excellence comes from achieving victory without fighting."

China's economy is already starting to falter. Their factories are starting to close because manufacturers are finding it cheaper to move to places like Vietnam. China's top trading partners are the US, Japan, and Europe. It doesn't need Vietnam, Korea, or the Phillipines, which are many of the places it's currently bullying.

One also needs to take into account China's history. In ancient times, China was the world super power, and they expected everyone to pay homage to the emperor, even if it was only lip service. When you look at China's foreign policy today, it seems they're following this same trend in expecting Western powers to pay homage to China, even if they don't really mean it. This leaves them confused and bewildered when the West basically says "LoL?" Add to this a sensitivity brought on by China's recent history of being occupied by world powers, and you have a nation that cannot and will not accept being told "no" as they see it as a throwback to China being under the oppression of other powers, hence China's warnings to stay away from "internal affairs" and "core Chinese interests" whenever and wherever it can get away with it.

China has shown several times that is is capable of acting irrationally over Taiwan, and the Chinese government is whipping up patriotic sentiment at home to take pressure off of social issues. This is starting to backfire as the public is becoming more zealous and pushing the Chinese government to be more aggressive on the world stage than it is currently prepared for. Thanks to its bullying efforts in the South China Sea, China's neighbors are running, not walking to America looking for help. Many in the public in both Vietnam and the Phillipines have been openly calling for war with China. China can't help but feel more isolated by this trend.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by sidslotm

One of the things that aircraft carriers will need is escorts, destroyers, cruisers even, especially when at sea. A carrier has to be one of the most expensive pieces of hardware in the military tool box.

I believe the submarine is now the most deadly/all round effective piece of hardware in a modern fleet now.

[magicstix]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

I believe the submarine is now the most deadly/all round effective piece of hardware in a modern fleet now.

Ignoring your obvious bias given the nature of this forum (), a submarine is definitely powerful, but it can't project power the same way a CVN battlegroup can.

A submarine can't neutralize enemy forces the way a battlegroup can, it can really only deny waterspace or take out certain facilities with missile strikes.

[Oberon]

Well, to be fair, the chances of another war in Europe with a nation that has an army comparable to the big three of NATO is pretty slim. Russia benefits too much from the status quo to wreck it. If oil prices go up too high then Russia prices itself out of the market. It might make a play against the former Soviet nations which aren't a part of NATO, but there's enough internal problems for Russia to deal with than for it to want to start stomping around Eastern Europe. Besides enough of the old Warsaw Pact nations are so terrified of the resurgence of the Soviet Union that they'd cry merry havoc in the halls of NATO if the Russians tried something, and I can't blame them.

The major flashpoints at the moment lie around Israel, in particular Egypt and Israel. Quite frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see renew conflict there within the next three years, quite possibly after an Israeli pre-emptive strike. Syria has its own internal problems, they won't get involved, but the other usual suspects might.
North Korea is, as always, an unknown. They've pretty much run out of time in terms of being able to make an effective dent in the souths defences, right now the South could probably hold them off on its own and certainly against the combined forces of the ROK and the US, the DPRK wouldn't even make it to Seoul.
Africa is, as always, usually on fire somewhere, Somalia will continue to kick around in the dirt, Zimbabwe will continue to be the DPRK of Africa, and Sudan will most likely have some kind of civil war in the future following the recent southern split.
Asia outside of China and the DPRK is a difficult one. Indonesia would be one to watch I'd wager, there's always something brewing there with the surrounding neighbourhood. East Timor comes to mind.

The real one I'd look at is the possibility of some kind of military fall out between the US and Pakistan, I don't like the way that the current situation is heading to be honest, and I wouldn't be surprised to see US forces 'accidentally' bomb Pakistani forces on the border of Afghanistan or something like that. The legacy of finding Binny right next to Pakistans top military academy is not going to go away overnight.

The possibility of a renewed clash between India and Pakistan cannot be ruled out either, but it's hard to read that one.

Otherwise it's the usual terror groups, internal strife between Muslim immigrants and the right, conflicts over resources and minor border skirmishes.

Of course, I would probably have said the same thing in 1936 too. So...