1944 - Beginning of the End

[RoaldLarsen]

I'm following a campaign in which I keep one career operating for each flotilla modeled by the game. (In 1939 and 1940, I had two careers per flotilla to balance out the smaller number of active flotillas.) When a Kaleun is killed or retires, a new career takes his place, starting at about the time the previous career ended. I previously posted a summary of my 1943 patrols. This post is about what 1944 looked like.

At the end of 1943 I made the following predictions:

Looking forward to 1944 I expect to have fewer patrols, as turnaround time increases, and build/maintenance quality declines. By the end of the year there will be only two flotillas operating instead of the 7 I have currently, so I will be replacing fewer careers. Patrols will become shorter as there will be fewer assignments farther afield. Losses will increase, tonnage will decline. I am hoping to be able to have a patrol survival rate of > 2/3. The rate of suffering will go up, but the overall volume will go down. I guess I'll have about 18-20 patrols, about 400 sea days, about 6 or 7 lost boats and only about 250,000 - 300,000 tons sunk.

This is a summary of my patrols since the start of the war:

____________________ ___1939 ___1940 ___1941 ___1942 ___1943 ___1944
Number of Patrols___ _____26 _____40 _____27 _____34 _____31 _____29
Days at Sea_________ ____436 ____528 ____420 ____681 ____962 ____711
Days per Patrol_____ ___16.8 ___13.2 ___15.6 ___20.0 ___32.0 ___25.7
Tonnage Sunk________ 648,396 850,593 681,374 921,375 692,700 553,899
Tonnage per Patrol__ _24,938 _21,265 _25,236 _27,099 _21,647 _19,100
Aircraft Shot Down__ ______0 ______1 ______5 ______7 _____24 ____144
Subs Lost___________ ______1 ______2 ______0 ______4 ______7 ______5
Patrols per Lost Sub ___26.0 ___20.0 _____∞ ____8.5 ____4.6 ____5.8
Tonnage per Lost Sub 648,396 425,297 _____∞ 230,344 _98,957 110,780

The biggest surprises were the huge number of aircraft shot down coupled with a reduction in the number of sub losses. Many of my predictions were off. I did have fewer, shorter patrols, but there were more of them than I expected, and they lasted longer than predicted. The survival rate was higher, and as a result of these three differences, I sank double the tonnage I had expected.

The increase in aircraft kills is reflective of a huge increase in the number of times I was attacked when I could not safely dive: either the water was too shallow, or the aircraft were spotted too late. It may also reflect an increase in the number of aircraft per attack (more targets to destroy) and an improvement in Flak armament. In 1944 nearly all my subs had eight 20mm barrels - one vierling and two zwillings. Nevertheless, Flak remain far too accurate for realism.

Given the increase in attacks by aircraft, I am at a loss to explain the reduction in numbers of subs lost. I survived far too many air attacks. Combat with aircraft is clearly an area where the game needs tuning. I have been able to get the number of attacks and the amount of warning to a point I think is fairly realistic, but the aircraft are too inaccurate and the sub's Flak is way too accurate.

Once again, there was a significant difference in survivability between Type VII and Type IX boats. Type IX patrols resulted in a loss 30% of the time, but type VIIs only experienced an 11% loss rate. Four of my five losses were to aircraft.

There was a significant reduction in the number of attacks on convoys, not because of better convoy defenses, but because it was difficult to get close to convoys due to having to spend so much time submerged avoiding aircraft. The tonnage is so high only because the game models far too many ships sailing independently or in groups of two or three.

I've subtitled this post "Beginning of the End" because it is apparent that the u-boat is spending almost all its time as the hunted and almost never as the hunter.

[VirtualVikingX]

Nice info! I see that somebody is taking their SHIII gaming a bit more serious than me.

Are you Norwegain by any chance?

[RoaldLarsen]

Originally Posted by VirtualVikingX

Nice info! I see that somebody is taking their SHIII gaming a bit more serious than me.

Are you Norwegain by any chance?

No, not Norwegian by current nationality, but by ancestry.

RoaldLarsen is just a screen name, composed from the first name of the first man to go through the Northwest passage, and the second name of the second man to go through the Northwest Passage (and the first to do it twice and first to do it west to east).

[KL-alfman]

thx for posting this outlook of coming events!
I'll bear that in mind, if I ever survive until then.

[mookiemookie]

All I remember of my 1944 patrols was seeing Bergen being bombed by the Allies as I left on patrol and thinking "We're not in Kansas anymore."

[czwij]

i wish aircraft were less accurate. i always get my ass whipped when i confront with my guns. i don't know if the harbour mod does it, but they nail me hard at every turn in 44

[Sailor Steve]

Originally Posted by czwij

i wish aircraft were less accurate. i always get my ass whipped when i confront with my guns. i don't know if the harbour mod does it, but they nail me hard at every turn in 44

Welcome to real life. A lot more u-boats were sunk by planes than planes were shot down by u-boats.

The correct response to any aircraft attack is "ALAAAAAAARRRRMMM!!!!"

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by czwij

i wish aircraft were less accurate. i always get my ass whipped when i confront with my guns. i don't know if the harbour mod does it, but they nail me hard at every turn in 44

Welcome to the club.....most aircraft are best left alone, depth is your ally.

I seldom stay surfaced and slug it out...unless I have no other choice due to depth constraints.