[POL] Persian hide-and-seek

[Skybird]

It has become known to the media that Iran not only has a facility for uranium enrichment somewhere on the huge perimeter known as "Natanz", but a second such facility near the city of Ghom, too.

This has become known to the media just days ago. western governments actually already knew it a bit longer.

Iran did not reveal it's existence before it was sure the West knew about it.

This illustrates some of the immense difficulties of dealing with Iran.

First it underlines the non-existent trustworthiness of Iranian diplomacy, and therefore the disillusionising lack of trustworthiness of overly idealistic hopes into diplomatic solutions as sought by the West. Iran will never negotiate its nuclear military prpgram. It will only diplomatically manouver in order to buy the time it needs to create facts that make it militarily immune to any threats of force.

that means the West's diplomatic goals for negotiations are unreal.

Second, it illustrates the problems with trying the military option. Such a facilities just don't grow over night, but obviously Iran was able to hide the existence of the second facility until just 6-8 weeks ago, at max. If even hole components and key sites could get hidden that easily, how could anyone assume that bombing for example "Natanz" would help, if you know that that is an area of almost 200 square-kilometers in size, with only non-vital building complexes standing an the gorund, but the installations you are looking for are deeply hidden under the earth, in strengthended bunker structures, and even their entrance coordinates unknown? How could you target something if you do not know where it exactly is?

the number of targets sites related in any way to the Iranian weapons program, is said by some to be around 150, by others around 300. Add to this the militarily relevant targets that must be dealt with in order to make the primary targets reachable with acceptable risks. Some say: 1000. Others say 2000. Now consider that the primary targets are often just a name describing a huge place with some administrative buildings, but the vital installations you want to destroy hidden and their target coordinates on most cases absolutely unknown. A place like Natanz you can cluster bomb with MOABs from eastern to christmas without being sure you actually hit what you want to hit.

Israeli intel and military authorities have, under the hand, said that Israel all by itself is in no way militarily capable to deal with the Iranian program. They can do some damage, and they assume minor damage only - that's it.

The US defence minister Gates has just expressed that he also is sceptical about the military option, and that even a military engagement of the US could only delay the Iranian program by some years, but could not stop and destroy it.

It goes without saying that these statements all base on military actions with convnetional (non-nuclear) weapons. A political willingness to use nuclear weapons in a first strike, can safely be assumed to be non-existent.

Obama's abandoning of the missiles shield in Eastern europe has already seen two positive reactions by the russians. First, they have stopped plans to modernise their existing and strengthen in numbers their missile base in Kaliningrad. Second, they have indicated that they may give up their blockade for tougher sanctions against Iran. In fact recent comments by Medwedew indiacte he agrees to tougher sanctions now. This sacrifices some financial income and economic revenues for Russia.

But as I just said, diplomatic efforts seem to be doomed, and sanctions will not help in that.

And finally, there is China. For China the pressuring of Iran falls under what it always calls illegitimate interference with internal affairs of a sovereign nation. This is an accuse they give for two reasons. First, they want to protect their own national situation, which they also defend against this illegtimite interference of foreign powers with internal sovereign china's affairs, criticism of any kind, for example. And second, the Chinese have dramatically increased diplomatic ties with Iran, and get plenty of oil from there. They deliver key technology, military goods, high tech and consumer goods in return. And China is really thirsty for plenty of oil now. Isolating or damaging Iran has big economic and strategic implications for them. Additonally, the weakness of the West deriving from it's helplessness on Iran, they can take as a free and welcomed bonus.

So in fact you are not only confronting Iran over it'S nuclear program, but you are facing an Iranian-Chinese alliance.

Halleluja.

I have already heared the first wellmeant comments on radio, by some surreal politicians saying that one has to negotiate with the Iranians over the second facility at Ghom.

That is very kind.

what options are left? Only two, one of which is not realistic currently.

the first option is to prepare a policy of repeatedly striking Iran every couple of years, by that delay it's program some years, and when they come back to business, strike them again.

This has three problems. First, the Chinese will be pissed. and when the Chiense start to react, no matter in what way, you can feel it in the economy around all the globe. second, it will radicalise the Iranians themselves (yes, that is possible, since their society has a wider spectrum of tempers than most of you Westerner not knowing the country can imagine). And third, the political nature of the Western nations themselves put a decades-lasting policy of repetitive warfare into high doubt, due to the inherent instability of political goal-setting in western governments, and the everchanging government constellations.

The second option, which is unrealistic, is to massively strike the critical reasearch and construction sites in Iran with nuclear weapons desinged to do a maximum of possible contamination, making the places unaccessable for decades to come. This would mean a passing of a thin red line, and increase the likelihood of nuclear terror strikes in revenge.

A bamboo flute without holes is not a flute, but a hole without a flute is somethign very different.

The most likely outcome of all this? A nuclear armed Iran in the future, an Iranian driven nuclear proliferation to anti-Western terror groups, and a nuclear arms race throughout the ME. Top candiates for participants are Saudi-Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Turkey.

Isn't this world wonderful.

The Indian Air Force currently is running a competition for western companies to modernise it'S Air Force. there are the SU-35, the F-16, the Rafael, the Typhoon, the Gripen. 125-150 fighters they want to buy.However, the problem with this kind of deal is they insist on only buying 25 fighters at max. The rest must be build in India. Which means they are not about the fighters, but about technology transfer.

Maybe the West would be well-advised to start seeing deals like this under this crucial perspective. India may not be the big problem for us, but many such major military and technolgy deals include this technology transfer. It gives rivaling and potentially or real hostile nations access to our weapons technology, and it gives economic rivals access to our production technology. Our policies are insane if we judge such deals only in terms of immediate finacial profit for a company, and shortsight-beenfits in jobs at home.

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So... Das tat mal wieder Not!

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by Skybird

And finally, there is China. For China the pressuring of Iran falls under what it always calls illegitimate interference with internal affairs of a sovereign nation.

Atleast there's one country in the world who gets it.

I doubt that US or UK or [insert a country with nukes here] would just give up their nukes if someone asked them.

Me, I'm just waiting for the Americans to explain what Iran had to with 9/11. Should be real interesting how they tie it all to the Iranians.

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by OneToughHerring

Me, I'm just waiting for the Americans to explain what Iran had to with 9/11. Should be real interesting how they tie it all to the Iranians.

I hope they dont use the same excuse than with Iraq "Saddam was aiding them!!" few years later "NOT!!".

[Jimbuna]

So what are the west to do, in the context of Iran eventually achieving a nuclear strike capability?

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

So what are the west to do, in the context of Iran eventually achieving a nuclear strike capability?

If you ask me, nothing. That is aslong as things stay as they are. If they give any clear signs that they are going use their nukes or even threaten others with a possible nuclear strike to get what they want, hit first. I'd imagine the western world has so many ppl in Iran atm that Ahmawhatsamacallhim cant even take a dump without us knowing about it.

But that's just me.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

So what are the west to do, in the context of Iran eventually achieving a nuclear strike capability?

There are no workable options that would enable the West to get the result it wants. There will neither be nuclear war against Iran, nor repetetive conventional wars over the coming half century or so, "one strike per administration". So the most likely outcome indeed is this:

Originally Posted by Skybird

The most likely outcome of all this? A nuclear armed Iran in the future, an Iranian driven nuclear proliferation to anti-Western terror groups, and a nuclear arms race throughout the ME. Top candiates for participants are Saudi-Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Turkey.

I miss the cold war. After Cuba, things were easier, more stable and more predictable then.

[Kloef]

First ask yourself, why does an oilproducing country develope nuclear industry?

Secondly, to my knowledge uranium enrichment's sole purpose in this case is enriching it for weapons, no country in the world has one nuclear plant AND an enrichment site, with one enrichment site you can service alot of nuclear plants e.g an incredibly expensive industry for just one nuclear plant.

The danger of nuclear weapons development in Iran is clear for everyone to see, and i guess sattelite surveillance is very high at the moment,but what can be done?

My guess is diplomatic actions will have little to no effect, as seen with the Iraqi plant. By the time diplomatic solutions have been exhausted Israel may be seriously considering an attack on one or both plants.

Israel has never been secret about its policy towards nuclear development in the region, as proved in Iraq and they will never allow Iran to get to a 'knife at troat' situation therefore they have no other alternative but to destroy it with an airstrike.

When they took the Iraqi plant out they didnt ask permission from anyone, why would one think they would now? They consider it to be a direct treat, and with pilots who will sacrifice themselves for the safety of Israel and its people this seems to be the most logical thing that could happen.

This will seriously undermine Israel's international support, same happened with the 1982 strike, but that will not stop them. They'd rather fight a long conventional war than a nuclear one.

As for my opinion, if any country refuses IAA inspections that facility should be destroyed immediatly no questions asked.

[Platapus]

Some comments and some corrections

Originally Posted by Kloef

First ask yourself, why does an oilproducing country develope nuclear industry?

Because Iranian oil will run out in about 100 years and they need all the oil they can for export as that is one of the primary sources of revenue for Iran. More money can be made by exporting oil than can be made using its own supply. Second, the US did not have any problems with its puppy-shah wanted to build 20 reactors. The grief the US has over Iran's nuclear industry is not based on geology but politics.

Secondly, to my knowledge uranium enrichment's sole purpose in this case is enriching it for weapons

Incorrect. The purpose of enriching Uranium is to enrich Uranium.

LEU (3-5% 235U)is used for reactors
HEU (5-20% 235U) is used for different nuclear purposes including reactors
WGU )92%+ 235U) is used for weapons and some types of reactors

The danger of nuclear weapons development in Iran is clear for everyone to see, and i guess sattelite surveillance is very high at the moment,but what can be done?

As for my opinion, if any country refuses IAA inspections that facility should be destroyed immediatly no questions asked.

Would that include US nuclear facilities that are excluded from IAEA inspection? One of the perks of being one of the original five is that all five countries are exempt from mandatory IAEA inspections. We only allow IAEA inspectors in to select facilities and only when we choose to allow them to inspect.

Iran allows IAEA inspections of its declared facilities. Now that they have declared another one, the Inspections will include them

[Kloef]

Incorrect. The purpose of enriching Uranium is to enrich Uranium.

LEU (3-5% 235U)is used for reactors
HEU (5-20% 235U) is used for different nuclear purposes including reactors
WGU )92%+ 235U) is used for weapons and some types of reactors

This contradicts itself, you say 92% can be used for weapons if i understand you correctly? Then why would they need such a plant? They could easily let some other country enrich it for them, much cheaper.

I wasnt aware of the fact Iran allowes IAA inspections, if thats true then all should be fine and the peacefull regime and people of Iran will have nuclear energy to solve an energy problem they will encounter in 100 years, yeah right. Name one country that actually has a policy based on 100 years in the future..

One thing they will probably achieve is making the region unstable enough for some other country to mess it up for them.

As for IAA inspections, this discussion goes on and on the organisation has allways been doubtfull, but you know what i mean when rogue states develope this technology and mislead us they should suffer the consequences, from anyone directly treatened.

[Skybird]

Iran needs alternative energy indeed, believe it or not. they have oil but they do not have much refining capacity and indeed do import gasoline (!). On the other hand, they must export so much oil to make the cash the state needs for a living so that not enough is left for feeding Iran's own needs. Which explains why they have not build bigger refining capacity.

That they need alternative energy sources, is beyond doubt. and suually one would say they have any right there is to explore the civilian use of nuclear energy.

And if they would not have behaved like such a$$##### like they have since Khomenei returned, nobody would see a bit problem in them doing so.

So in the end the whole row is not about what right they have to use civilian nuclear energy, but whether or not we others could afford to let them do it. It is not about their rights to use it, but about their trustworthiness.

And there simply is no reason to trust Iran, the past 30 years of history speak against it. The step from civilian use of nuclear energy to military purposes is much shorter than idealists and pacifists often try to make it appear.

[Hakahura]

Originally Posted by Kloef

This contradicts itself, you say 92% can be used for weapons if i understand you correctly? Then why would they need such a plant? They could easily let some other country enrich it for them, much cheaper.

I wasnt aware of the fact Iran allowes IAA inspections, if thats true then all should be fine and the peacefull regime and people of Iran will have nuclear energy to solve an energy problem they will encounter in 100 years, yeah right. Name one country that actually has a policy based on 100 years in the future..

One thing they will probably achieve is making the region unstable enough for some other country to mess it up for them.

As for IAA inspections, this discussion goes on and on the organisation has allways been doubtfull, but you know what i mean when rogue states develope this technology and mislead us they should suffer the consequences, from anyone directly treatened.

Not 92% can be used for weapons.
92% plus is the required isotope ratio for fissile weapons.

Few things to ponder...
You're neighbour to the north has nukes,
A hostile near neighbour to the west has nukes,
2 Neighbours to your east have nukes,
An openly hostile nation has parked Navy off you're southern shore with nukes and
The same openly hostile nation has use of a huge airbase a short distance to the south of you with..... you guessed it nukes!

Whilst I don't like the idea of a country run by religous maniacs having nuclear weapons, you can maybe see why they feel they need them.

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by Hakahura

Not 92% can be used for weapons.
92% plus is the required isotope ratio for fissile weapons.

Few things to ponder...
You're neighbour to the north has nukes,
A hostile near neighbour to the west has nukes,
2 Neighbours to your east have nukes,
An openly hostile nation has parked Navy off you're southern shore with nukes and
The same openly hostile nation has use of a huge airbase a short distance to the south of you with..... you guessed it nukes!

Whilst I don't like the idea of a country run by religous maniacs having nuclear weapons, you can maybe see why they feel they need them.

[Kloef]

We all know Iran's intentions, enough said.

A president publicly denying the holocaust, and publicly treatens Isreal to 'wipe it of the face of the Earth' should not be trusted with this technology, inspections or not.

As for alternative power, i know solar and wind energy is not the solution but things change if you have massive amounts of empty desert land where this system would be very effective, and much cheaper and easier to sell politically speaking, but you cant make weapons out of solarpanels and windgenerators.

Not 92% can be used for weapons.
92% plus is the required isotope ratio for fissile weapons.

Few things to ponder...
You're neighbour to the north has nukes,
A hostile near neighbour to the west has nukes,
2 Neighbours to your east have nukes,
An openly hostile nation has parked Navy off you're southern shore with nukes and
The same openly hostile nation has use of a huge airbase a short distance to the south of you with..... you guessed it nukes!

Whilst I don't like the idea of a country run by religous maniacs having nuclear weapons, you can maybe see why they feel they need them.

They have made it clear that the first bomb they finish will land in Israel, the 'wipe them of the' quote were not my words but the words of president Achminejihad whatever..

What i dont understand is the sudden 'understanding' for terrorist countries like Iran, they fund terrorism on a global scale and you say you feel sorry for them that they have been forced to develope nuclear energy, and by what you state, build a bomb.

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by Kloef

This contradicts itself, you say 92% can be used for weapons if i understand you correctly?

Not contradictory at all. Uranium Enrichment is a process of many steps. It can be used to Enrich Uranium a little, or a lot. In a gas centrifuge system (a very common way of enriching Uranium), the throughput (amount) is governed by the number of stages (configuration of centrifuges). The enrichment level (quality) is governed by the number of cascades (configuration of centrifuges).

A centrifuge system that is designed to produce large amounts of LEU can be used to product, albeit inefficiently, smaller amounts of HEU or even WGU, but it would take much much longer to do so.

This is why reports that Iran has 3,000 centrifuges operating tells us precisely dick about what they are doing. To understand their production (and infer the use) we need to know the configurations of the stages and cascades and the piping between them.

probably more than you cared to know but nuclear industries are a complicated topic.