Economy is bottoming out.

[Zachstar]

A week ago I was reading a story that seemed to indicate that in some small towns things are SLOWLY starting to recover.

Now I am reading more and more that makes me feel confident that late 2009 will start to see some recovery.

Fear is what drove most of this crisis. People have a boatload of money saved up that they are SLOWLY starting to spend and get flowing again. As confidence rises things will pick up.

Will we go back to pre-recession levels? Hell no! That was propped up by credit. At best we will get back to just before the real nosedive started.

The best thing to do now is to buy some American products. Nothing major just a few hundred dollars here and there. One step at a time and we will dig out of this.

[TarJak]

Whilst it would be nice if it were true there are those that don't belive it: http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/25/maga...ion=2009022509

[UnderseaLcpl]

I hope you're right ZS, but I don't see the economy pulling up before the effects of a trillion dollars' worth of "stimulus" hit the money supply.

What we have here is a textbook recipe for stagflation, now it is all about the timing. If the economy recovers before the inflation caused by rampant federal printing/borrowing, we might stave off severe recession for a bit longer. However, if the market responds to the increased money supply first (in the form of higher prices), then I'm afraid we're in for a lot more abuse.
The lower fuel prices we are enjoying may help, as some economists theorize, but they aren't going to offset the inflationary damage.

And that's to say nothing of the long-term effects of this kind of federal spending.
This one single bill has managed to spend more money than the entire Iraq War.
People can debate economic theory until they are blue in the face but every time the U.S. government has intervened on a large scale they have made the economic situation worse overall, rather than better.
As it is, Social Security, Medicaid, and interest on the national debt account for more than half of the budget. And the budget already runs at a defecit.
Coming along and dumping trillion on the debt and an additional 200-900 billion in expenses a year(estimates vary, a visit to www.gpo.gov shows wildy enthusiastic predictions for future defecit) is not going to help the situation.

The economy desperately needs time to catch up with the money supply and back it with actual production. Obama's administration is attempting to jump-start the process with directed spending, heedless of the catastrophic failures that similar measures have yielded in the past.


It's hard to say this without being offensive to my leftist colleagues here, but one of the things that continually pisses me off about the Democrats' economic policies is that they always think they have the damn answer. Then they fail, and then they come right back and say "our policy is good, it just needs a little more tweaking" and they just shrug off the damage they've done. And yes there are Republicans guilty of this too, make no mistake.

Obama has demonstrated the willingness to at least say that he wants to cut programs (150, I think, in the last budget committee report) but his actions say that he's going to replace them with more spending.
Even if he was some economic genius that could figure a centralized solution to the nation's woes, there are too many factors working against effective implementation of such legislation.

I don't see a bright outlook. The clouds may break here and there, for a bit, but the storm hasn't even begun.

[Zachstar]

That article from the news media is exactly why we are in this mess. They want people glued to the TV to watch what company will fall today.

Its fear mongering. The answer is simple. Do YOUR part to get the economy back on track.

Every little bit helps. For instance. How about planting a vegtable garden? They money you save from not having to buy tomatoes for instance is THAT much more that can flow into manufacturing.


The stimulus? It wont do much but the perception that the gov is not going to pull another Hoover REALLY helps things in the minds of the people.

What it MAY do tho is starve off the inevitable "mini recession" that we always have after a main recession. The long term goals like more broadband creates markets and installs more confidence.

[Zachstar]

This is much better.

http://moneyfeatures.blogs.money.cnn...covery-or-not/

Not too pie in sky and not fear mongering. A little ray of hope.

One step at a time folks. Day by day week by week month by month and before we know it the recession will have ended.

[PeriscopeDepth]

Confidence will NOT increase until:
1) The fraudsters (both government officials and private entities) are held accountable. Not by a tongue lashing in Congress but by being behind bars.
2) Private financial institutions and the government let everybody look at their books and see the true amount of bad debt out there.
3) Toxic debt is valued at a price that WILL NOT be subject to change and guaranteed by the Federal Government. IE, a plan that does not change every time they call a press conference.

The markets nose dive every time Barack and Timmy open their mouths in front of cameras because the above does not happen. The people that hold the real capital are smart enough to know when they are being lied to.

PD

[Rockstar]

"In addressing this panic, the president of the United States must truly be the leader of the world — showing the way back to confidence.

Instead, Obama has been instrumental in purveying fear and spreading doubt. It is his pronouncements, reinforced by the developments they kindle and catalyze, that are destroying good businesses, bankrupting responsible people and wiping out even conservative financial institutions. Every time he speaks, he sends the markets down and stocks crashing. He doesn’t seem to realize that the rest of the world takes its cue from him. He forgets that he stands at the epicenter of power, not on the fringes campaigning for office. This ain’t Iowa.

Why does Obama preach gloom and doom? Because he is so anxious to cram through every last spending bill, tax increase on the so-called rich, new government regulation, and expansion of healthcare entitlement that he must preserve the atmosphere of crisis as a political necessity. Only by keeping us in a state of panic can he induce us to vote for trillion-dollar deficits and spending packages that send our national debt soaring.

And then there is the matter of blame. The deeper the mess goes — and the further down his rhetoric drives it — the more imperative it becomes to lay off the blame on Bush. He must perpetually “discover” — to his shock — how deep the crisis that he inherited runs, stoking global fears in the process.

So, having inherited a recession, his words are creating a depression. He entered office amid a disaster and he is transforming it into a catastrophe, all to pass every last bit of government spending and move us a bit further to the left before his political capital dwindles.

But the jig will be up soon. The crash of the stock market in the days since he took power (indeed, from the moment he won the election) can increasingly be attributed to his own failure to lead us in the right direction, his failed policies in addressing the recession and his own spreading of panic and fear. The market collapse makes it evident that it is Obama who is the problem, where he should, instead, be the solution."

Unless of course this is being driven intentionally for other reasons. It's like continually adding water to fruit juice. Each time you ad water you have less juice and pretty soon there is no more juice, just water and before you know it you have the Amero and the North American Union between Canada, America and Mexico.


.

[Zachstar]

Peddle your conspiricy theories elseware!

[Zachstar]

This is what I'm talking about the media once again fear mongering so they can keep the viewers tied to the screen.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/27/news...ion=2009022708

*******s and of course the Dow is tanking 60 points because of this fear mongering.

[SteamWake]

Originally Posted by Zachstar

Peddle your conspiricy theories elseware!

Im afraid Rockstar pretty much nailed it, however I dont think that is his piece.

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Zachstar

Peddle your conspiricy theories elseware!

Rockstar is correct here Zach. Wall Street hangs on every word Obama says and every word Congress says. Upbeat and positive should be the two catch words for everyday for Obama.

Back to your original post, yes, I think we hit bottom. People can only go so long without spending. Items need to be replaced, things break down and need repair, etc. This growth, all be is slow, can be great for a lot of people.

[Skybird]

Looking both at america AND Europe, I see no reason for optimism this year. Banks still hide the bigger share of their problems, so do insurance companies. Those who agree to accept state'S help, admit only fractions of their problems until they have gotten so much aid that the state canot accept to give them up once they reveal the real ammount of their damages. the Fed's influence is almost nill now, since it has spend the lion's share of it'S reserves. The note printing machines are running at 200% speed, fueling the risk of inflation. And Obama- well, everybody is putting all his trust blindly into the man - like many also put their trust blinldy into GWB, once upon a long time ago. But Obama'S options are very limited, he cannot do magic and miracles, for the most he can only influence the public psychology, but not the hard economic facts. While this ability should not be underrated, it also should not be overrated.

I do not hold my breath for 2010 either. If we would listen to the optimists, the spike of the crisis should have been taken place in late autumn of last year. then they said the middle of 2009. now they say end of 2009. Fine. The crisis itself cares a lot for these timetables, I'm sure. In europe, first essayists have just started to realise the real scale of the downward trend that is to hit europe from summer this year on. Many thought europe was better positioned than the US. We have just started to learn it better.

Considering the plan to spend massively and increase both deficit and debts, like Obama just anounced, I assume any american plans for a war with Iran are officially off the table. i also cannot see him being real when saying he wants to half the deficit until the end of his term.

Even for my friendly-neutral stand towards him, he seems to start leaning a bit too far out of the window.

http://www.businessweek.com/print/ma...2036855338.htm

[SteamWake]

For once your right !

It is bottoming out ! Here read this.

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/a..._reached#49803

[Rockstar]

Spend? Spend what!? I've got to go to work and pay off Robin Da' Hoods debt as he gives my money to the freeloaders of the world

[AVGWarhawk]

Interesting the amount on defense he is spending.