Isn't Biden supposed to be helping with vote gathering for Obama?

[SUBMAN1]

Good choice Obama! He is losing them faster than Obama can gain them.

-S



http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09...s-on-abortion/

http://www.breitbart.tv/html/178233.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/gerald_..._catholic_vote

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080918/.../biden_taxes_3

[1480]

Joe the Jinx has blown it, big time.

Loved this quote from the Telegraph.

[SUBMAN1]

Originally Posted by 1480

Loved this quote from the Telegraph.

That's good! How about this one?:

They were drifting away in disillusionment from the Republicans and split 50-50, until Joe Biden worked his magic. This is electoral suicide by the Democrats.

[JoeCorrado]

How about this one?

September 20, 2008

Gallop Poll National: Obama 50% - McCain 44%

Or this one:

Pollster National Poll of Polls: Obama 47.7% - McCain 44.1%

I don't know why Obama is surging- but I suggest that all of the candidates continue doing exactly what they have been doing and we will have a real change in Washington.

[SUBMAN1]

This is the same Gallop poll that accurately predicted a Hillary victory too! :p

Seems different from other polls today showing pretty much a tie - http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

Now the good part - conservatives like to refuse poll calls or surveys of any kind. I've refused my fair share this year already too. So add 10 points to McCain automagically for those that refused to give their opinion.

-S

[JoeCorrado]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

This is the same Gallop poll that accurately predicted a Hillary victory too! :p

Seems different from other polls today showing pretty much a tie - http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

Now the good part - conservatives like to refuse poll calls or surveys of any kind. I've refused my fair share this year already too. So add 10 points to McCain automagically for those that refused to give their opinion.

-S

Correct me if I am wrong- but are YOU not the same guy who posted poll results when they favored your chosen candidate? Link: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=142093

Apparently YOU, are one of those fair weather guys eager to post all about good news but runs away when the rain starts.

And for your information, many hard working middle class Americans like myself have refused ALL poll calls this election... and YOUNG Americans of the "cell phone" culture are never given opportunity to participate since they have no land line... and ALL newly registered Americans, by the MILLIONS and mostly Democratic are not included in the surveys since they are not listed as among "likely voters" (those who voted last election) so, does that make a difference in the results as well... or is that just part of the randomness?

Please, tell me it ain't so. :rotfl:

[Tchocky]

So add 10 points to McCain automagically for those that refused to give their opinion.

Ha, why ten?

[Sea Demon]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Ha, why ten?

Historically, Democrats always have the lead in the polls about this much time before an election. I believe Kerry was up by 12% against Bush last time around. Gore's results looked similar. Bush won both times. I don't know what's going to happen in November, but the fact that Obama and McCain are within the margin of error right now, it's a good bet that McCain's true polling would be well above Obama. Ten percent may be a conservative estimate.

Bottom line, if Obama is not up by at least 12% right now, I'd be worried if I were a Democrat.

[Tchocky]

Originally Posted by Sea Demon

Historically, Democrats always have the lead in the polls about this much time before an election. I believe Kerry was up by 12% against Bush last time around. Gore's results looked similar. Bush won both times.

Alright, lets have a survey of polls from this day in 2004. 21st September 2004.

This column was originally featured on CongressDaily/AM on September 21, 2004.


Rounding the turn into the fourth week of September, President Bush's lead over Massachusetts Democratic Sen. John Kerry seems to be somewhere in the mid-single digits. The differences between individual polls are amazing, however, ranging from Bush ahead by 16 points all the way to a statistical dead heat.
According to the handy RealClearPolitics average of national public polls, the president has a 6.8-point advantage in a three-way race over Kerry and independent Ralph Nader. The average was 6.5 points in a two-way, Bush-Kerry trial heat and the president's job approval rating averaged 51.1 percent. All three averages cover national polls released over the most recent seven-day period.

[August]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Alright, lets have a survey of polls from this day in 2004. 21st September 2004.

Yeah between THREE candidates, these polls are between TWO candidates. You remove the Nader factor and Kerry had a fairly comfortable lead at this point.

[Sea Demon]

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Rounding the turn into the fourth week of September, President Bush's lead over Massachusetts Democratic Sen. John Kerry seems to be somewhere in the mid-single digits. The differences between individual polls are amazing, however, ranging from Bush ahead by 16 points all the way to a statistical dead heat.
According to the handy RealClearPolitics average of national public polls, the president has a 6.8-point advantage in a three-way race over Kerry and independent Ralph Nader. The average was 6.5 points in a two-way, Bush-Kerry trial heat and the president's job approval rating averaged 51.1 percent. All three averages cover national polls released over the most recent seven-day period.

Ahhh, Tchocky. I see what you mean but you're forgetting the third party candidate angle, and potential voters from those blocks. Not to mention, that the polling I just looked at from 2004, Kerry was showing leads within the margin of error in late October and still lost. This same thing happened with Gore, but only a more narrow subset. Basically, you can compare those years polling results, and look at today and see that the Obama camp may have something to worry about. I take polls with a grain of salt, but they usually always favor the Democrat......then the election happens. If Obama and McCain are within the margin right now, I have doubts that is a good thing for Obama.

Edit to add: Thanks August, you beat me to the third party point.

[UnderseaLcpl]

ZOMG! This poll proves McCain will win!

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/show...141533&page=11 :rotfl:



But seriously, he will. This is a silly election-year. McCain selecting Palin sealed the deal. He has the senior vote, the female vote, the black vote, and the WASP vote.
As the economy continues to suffer through the coming months he will gain more votes.

I predict that after the election, and the critical "first hundred days" he will fail to gain popular support because he is not a fiscal conservative. The economy will continue to suffer from government spending and the inevtiable fall of consumer confidence that follows it. Unless it doesn't, and it might not.:hmm: There might be another economic bubble to prop it up for a bit, but whatever, the economy will eventually fail anyways.


I do trust Washington to displace the fiscal crisis for a bit, at least until the next congressional election. That is what they do best. But economic collapse will eventually occur. Every single great state that has ever existed has died because of economic failure, largely because of the state. Some of them have died more than once.

History repeats itself, and there is a reason for that.

The elite will always be here, no matter what system you choose. Best to make sure that they have as little power as possible.

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

Now the good part - conservatives like to refuse poll calls or surveys of any kind. I've refused my fair share this year already too. So add 10 points to McCain automagically for those that refused to give their opinion.

-S

Gosh that sounds like lame desperation. You are trying to make us believe that there is a "secret" extra 10% for McCain that no one can measure but exists? But somehow you are the only one who "knows" that people that refuse to give an opinion are voting for McCain? :rotfl:

The 20 Sep 08 Gallop poll has Obama at 50% and McCain at 44%

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

Then you are actually saying that it is McCain at 54% (44% plus the "secret" extra 10% for McCain you talked about) and Obama at 50%?

54% + 50%% = 104%. It was this type of Republican mathematics that keeps getting us in trouble. Or does this secret McCain 10% somehow reduce the Obama statistic by 10%? A neat trick indeed.

Rasmussen has Obama at 48% and McCain at 47%. Your math would have McCain at 57% and Obama at 48% which equals 105%

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_dai...king_91719.php

So I am calling you out for a citation about "conservatives like to refuse poll calls or surveys of any kind."; Or this is just more desperate BS opinions on your part?

[SUBMAN1]

You have to substract from Obama at the same time - hello? Where did you go to school?

By the way, for your answers as to why this is valid, I think other posts have already made that clear above.

-S

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

You have to substract from Obama at the same time - hello? Where did you go to school?

Well clearly not the same school you went to.

And as for the question about citations for the comment ""conservatives like to refuse poll calls or surveys of any kind", all you are offering up are other opinions on the same thread? That's your source of citations?

Just want to make sure I understand you. For it sounds like you were unable to come up with any citation for that statement.

I have to say you have an interesting way of viewing politics.