In this corner, "President" Musharraf

[Onkel Neal]

Pakistani authorities began a round up of 1,500 opponents from the military, judiciary and opposition parties, according to media and police sources, one day after Musharraf suspended the country's constitution and dismissed the chief justice.

Where are the human shields when we really need them?

Despite Bush's stated intention of fostering democracy in these type of dictatorships, the choice was made to support Musharraf (our most important ally in the war on terrorTM) out of sheer necessity, to stage the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Now this. Where will this lead? Could this end up as a more militant Islamic Pakistan? Will the Taliban end up siezing power by proxy (I'm guessing they have a lot of sway with the militants)? Is Bhutto a legitimate threat to anchor some kind of real democracy in Pakistan, the non-extremist type? Will a cornered Musharraf ignite a wave of repression and bloodshed? What impact will this have on Bush's plan to run for a third term?

This whole episode reminds me of 1978. Can we please get our hostages (err, diplomates/spies) out now?


With respects to the other Pakistan thread.

[Skybird]

I'm surprised. A thread like this - from you, Neal?

It's the choice between plague and cholera:

Give democracy to Pakistan, and the Islamic movement will take over the country, sooner or later.

Resist the Islamic movement and try to hold it down, and the price for that is dictatorship. It would make the pressure rising under the bed, adding monsters to the crowd with every night passing.

So, no matter the scenario, democracy has no bright future in Pakistan. It will only be a temporary symptom - eventually.

The red mosque incident, the judges rebelling against Musharaf, the worstening security situation, the constant border traficking, the further weakening of Musharaf by Bhutto's comeback, the supreme court overshadowing Musharaf's election ambitions, the internal conspiracies in the ISI and the military, and the massive sympathy of the latter two for the Taleban - all this were and are signals that Pakistan must be regarded as one of the most dangerous hotspots of today's world, and that the bomb already is ticking. I just can't tell you what the counter is reading.

But I can tell you that it is high time to win distance to Pakistan. Good relations with India is far more important for us. I rank it's importance as high as that of China. Pakistan is, in the end, a hostile nobody for us, an their only voice in world politics is their nuclear bomb, and their top export hit: their Quranic schools supplying the Islamic and non-Islamic world with a neverending stream of Islamic fanatics.

Musharaf personally never was of interest for me, that's why I always spoke of Pakistan, not of Musharaf. He had come, and he will go. the situation he entered and leaves behind, will remain.

The Bushish project of a "beacon of democracy" in the ME always has been a self-decepetion, and illusion. It cannot work and will never work, thus it is doomed to fail - always. It is not enough to have fertile seeds - you also need a fertile field, and suitable weather, and a competent farmer. The latter three conditions are not fulfilled. In an Islamic world, democracy always will lead to islam climbing to power - legally, and thus irresistably. See Egypt. See Iran. See Palestinians. In Islam, democracy simply has not the meaning and importance as it once had for us in the West - it just is a tool to secure enough power to finally overthrow the freedoms democracy is about, and replace them with Islam. These freedoms and islam are mutually exclusive. It is not freedom over Islam - it is Islam over freedom. It wants to rule, nothing less.

End of Islam lesson from me. Promised! Wer Ohren hat, zu hören...

On the poll: no vote, I just can't say at this time. In the long run, the Islamic factions probably will win, in the immediate future, Musharaf maybe could win another handful of years to keep them down. But these imminent years - are an open game, and far from being a safe match. I am just sure that if Buttho is making it into power - it will play into the hands of the Islamists, ironically. that's why I am against her, no matter how democratic she appears to be. Remember that before the went into exile, corruption and nepotism was blossoming in her government. She is no saint.

[Torplexed]

My advice is simple. Make sure there are ample paper shredders at the embassy and that they are of the cross-cut variety.

[Lurchi]

I voted #3 - because this is what i hope will happen. Benazir Bhutto was rightfully elected by the People of Pakistan before being kicked out because of unproven allegation such as corruption. I think some of the old elites were just against her because of her social reforms and well ... she is a woman.

The fact that an islamic country voted for a female Prime Minister is proof enough that Pakistan and its people cannot be simply turned down as just another archaic islamic society - this country is different. To me it is pretty obvious that she has strong support among the ordinary people of Pakistan.

She must be a remarkably courageous person: Even though the Al-Quaed terrorists threatened her with death she nonetheless returned from Exile to her homecountry. To me it is pretty obvious that she deserves maximum support ...

[DanCanovas]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

Where are the human shields when we really need them?

Despite Bush's stated intention of fostering democracy in these type of dictatorships, the choice was made to support Musharraf (our most important ally in the war on terrorTM) out of sheer necessity, to stage the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Now this. Where will this lead? Could this end up as a more militant Islamic Pakistan? Will the Taliban end up siezing power by proxy (I'm guessing they have a lot of sway with the militants)? Is Bhutto a legitimate threat to anchor some kind of real democracy in Pakistan, the non-extremist type? Will a cornered Musharraf ignite a wave of repression and bloodshed? What impact will this have on Bush's plan to run for a third term?

This whole episode reminds me of 1978. Can we please get our hostages (err, diplomates/spies) out now?


With respects to the other Pakistan thread.

I didnt think you could run for a 3rd term in the US?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Lurchi

I voted #3 - because this is what i hope will happen.

Interesting attitude to the poll question - which asked what you consider to be likely to happen over there. You answered with a wish instead.

You can wish for one thing, nevertheless eventually realise that another outcome is more realistic. So the follow-up question to you would be if you think your wish is likely to come true.

[Jimbuna]

No 1....A leopard never changes it's spots, or it's ways

[mapuc]

What about their nukes? If the Islamic should gain power

Markus

[Ishmael]

That's why I think it is so important to watch this documentary if you haven't already seen it, Simcha Jacobovici's "Quest For The Lost Tribe".

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0246878/

Produced in 1997-8 and released in 1999 by award-winning documentary filmaker Simcha Jacobovici, now producing "The Naked Archaeologist" series for the History Channel, it deals with the lost tribes of the Israelites, scattered by the Babylonians 3000 years ago.

Jacobovici had produced a documentary about the Falashas, the Ethiopian Jews in 1991. After it's release, he was contacted by a rabbi who said he had discovered people practicing Jewish traditions in the Golden Triangle Area of northern Burma/Thailand/southern China. So he decides to try to find all of the ten lost tribes of Israel using nothing but his knowledge as an archaeologist and biblical scholar and the Old Testament as a guide. Over the course of the program, he finds tribal remnants of Israelite populations in Burma, India, Tunisia and the Tribal region of Southern Afghanistan/Pakistani Northwest Frontier. Specifically, he links the Shinwari, Afridi, Ruveni and Gadun tribes to the Israelite tribes of Simeon, Ephraim, Reuven and Gad.

He also examines the Pushtun-Wali, the Law of the Pushtuns or Pathans, that predates Islam and compares it to Old Testament Torah and finds it eerily similar. He does most of this by actually traveling around the area in the time frame where the Taliban are taking over.

It's an incredible historical document which, if it can be proven(can you say DNA testing), could change the entire dynamic of the area and the Middle East on one stroke. For if his thesis is correct and can be proven, it would mean every member of those tribes, some six million strong, are all entitled under Israeli law to "The Right of Return".

Here's another link to some commentary on the program:

http://www.nazarite.net/discovery/lost-tribes.html

Originally Posted by mapuc

What about their nukes? If the Islamic should gain power

Markus

<sarcasm>Get the CIA to find out who has the knowledge, and give them the option to get those people out of the country or terminate them, destroy any and all things that hold that information so when the crazy people take over, they won't have that knowledgebase available to them.</sarcasm>

BTW, I said that with the sarcasm tags for a reason, but I just wonder if that is seriously being considered at the CIA. It wouldn't surprise me.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Zayphod

<sarcasm>Get the CIA to find out who has the knowledge, and give them the option to get those people out of the country or terminate them, destroy any and all things that hold that information so when the crazy people take over, they won't have that knowledgebase available to them.</sarcasm>

BTW, I said that with the sarcasm tags for a reason, but I just wonder if that is seriously being considered at the CIA. It wouldn't surprise me.

One thing I know for sure, is that the government(US) is monitoring the situation very carefully and if needed, they will take some special unit from Iraq and/or/Afghanistan to take contol over the Pakistans nukes.

Markus

[Skybird]

Estimates are they have around 45-50 nukes, and I would not assume they store them all in one place.

I would not put too much trust into conventional military options either - when these options have had 6, and 4 years time to demonstrate their inability to gain control of lesser threats in Iraq and Afghanistan. Lacking success should teach us some more modesty, don't you think? Also, pakistan, as well as Iran, would be a far more difficult target to strike, or raid.

[DeepIron]

http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...0.html?cnn=yes

Interesting Time article regarding the current state of US/Pakistani relations...

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Skybird

It's the choice between plague and cholera

You nailed it right there! I don't think I can say anything beyond that; I can see it going either way at this point, but both available ways are not good. "Velvet revolution?" - not in that country. You can't get very velvety when extremism has been allowed to spread so far.

[Stealth Hunter]

GUYS!

If you have CNN, turn to it RIGHT NOW.

Musharraf is starting to arrest those who oppose him in a major scale, now. I guess a couple of people have been shot and killed already. Several others have been beaten, and more have been taken off by the police.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/as...ef=mpstoryview