In Stock, I think I've been successful at catching them one time, and that was years ago. I went directly north, through Makassar Strait, Sibutu Passage and into the Sulu Sea and caught them before they went up through the Mindoro Strait west of Panay. They've got a shorter distance to travel than you, but that is the closest point for your paths to cross. Only problem is the multiple routes the ship can take, and you would never know if you were out in front of it, or behind it ~except~ that it will report once every 24 hours where it is - er, sorry, ruined the immersion - the coastwatchers will report it once every 24 hours... You don't need to do Ahead Flank all the way. You'll burn all your fuel, but Ahead Full might be called for. Ahead Standard won't cut it.