Quote:
|
Originally Posted by MarkShot
So, what's the best pattern to drop my buoys to locate that sub? I have anywhere from 1-3 helos and around 20 buoys/helo.
Should I drop them outside in? Inside out? Checker board pattern? Barrier lines?
|
I'm not really able to talk about what they'd actually, do, though, you understand. I can only talk about the mathematics of search theory. Honestly, what they'd actually do is frequently not what's mathematically the best solution, but that's because operators have other constraints that aren't taken into account. This isn't to say that what they'd do isn't informed by the mathematics (because it is) just that they might not be able to actually make it happen that way.
The answer depends on the nature and size of the AOU as well as the assumptions you make about what the submarine is going to do after generating the DATUM. For example, suppose you got a radar hit from a snorkeling submarine and then he disappeared. If you assume that the submarine is equally likely to go in all directions then the AOU would expand circularly. If you assume he's only going to go in a smaller number of directions (roughly in the direction of your surface ships, for example) then it might only be a pie-shaped wedge.
I would generally drop them from the outside in, though, because if the AOU is generated correctly, it ought to represent the outter limit of where the submarine is most likely to actually be. As time goes by, the probability of detection for you gets smaller and smaller by virtue of the area you need to search getting larger, hence the fractional area covered by your sensors is always decreasing. The periphery of the AOU represents where your probability of detection will always be at it's worse and if you can exclude him from being there early (or at least make it unlikely) it just makes it easier earlier to find him, if that makes sense.