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Old 03-27-07, 03:22 AM   #2
TarJak
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Check out this extract from this document: http://www.informs-cs.org/wsc03papers/123.pdf

Sound like there just isn't much data around on this and the variables were significant enough to make it difficult to do anything but guesstimate.

"Perhaps the biggest unknown factor regarding U-Boat
activity concerned the time spent in port, and this remains
the biggest unknown regarding the link between the Bay of
Biscay simulation and the real-world operation. There was
simply not enough data available to support anything but
an educated, reasoned guess. In the simulation, U-Boats
time in port is given as a random variable between 25-40
days, inclusive. This is derived from (Morse and Kimball
1998) which states that the average time a U-Boat would
spend “about 30 days” in a port operating under its capacity
(no strict queuing argument is attached to the word capacity
in this instance). However, from other sources,
most notably (McCue 1990), the French ports were often
choked beyond their ability to service all the boats at any
given time, especially toward the end of the war when
German resources became scarce."
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