Quote:
Originally Posted by Crannogman
I think you're missing the fact that figures 1 and 2 show the same thing...
|
It was late and I was exhausted. I shouldn't have been doing any critical thinking then, much less publicly saying the result of said thinking. So disregard the previous. Just a short time beforehand, I had been doing some thinking on an example where you have an idea that a specific target will be transiting an area and know it's general parameters. In that case, we *can* improve the odds of detection by also adding in an element of the targets course to our own. Still, this isn't quite what I was actually replying to. Oops.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockin Robbins
You can do all the right things and still lose. It's fundamental game theory. ...The reason was his strategy: search the maximum number of square miles per day consistent with your mission.
It requires your "beautiful" vector subtraction of an unknown target running an unknown speed at an unknown heading. That, sir, is black magic. Your theory is based on a fallacy: that you can know the course and speed of your enemy before you ever encounter him.... You're a card counter at a blackjack table.
|
You misunderstand. At no point are we assuming that we know the targets speed, location, or exact heading. We're discussing game theory and probability. Card counting as you put it. This isn't in any way about knowing what the target is doing. It is specifically about understanding how what we are doing interacts with what the target is doing and how it changes the odds. If you look at fig 2 above, we don't need to know the targets actual speed. We understand that if he is moving faster, the angles widen, giving decreased relative coverage. If he is moving slower, the angles narrow, giving increased relative coverage. Again, we don't need to know his speed, we're only working to understand the odds and how to play them.
We can make reasoned generalizations about the traffic direction in an area. We can also generalize speeds by saying that almost all merchants are doing 10 knots or less. This isn't black magic. Not unless you consider understanding the probabilities of your tactical situation such anyways.