[Leandros]

Originally Posted by Dread Knot

I find German success in Barbarossa almost as difficult to believe as success in Operation Sealion. Barbarossa was based on a faulty assumption. That the Soviet Union would collapse in 6 months if struck hard enough. The Germans attacked on June 22nd. By mid-July it was already obvious that the assumption was incorrect. So in one sense, it is impossible for Barbarossa to succeed. No matter what changes are made to the plan, the Soviet Union will likely not simply collapse in 6 months.

These discussions are always interesting. I am a little surprised, though, that so many are so dead sure in their opinions. I ask you:

If Weserübung had not happened - would you have believed it could? The Germans were not teleported there.

If France, Holland and Belgium (Luxembourg, too....) had not been invaded and beaten in little more than a month - inclusive of the British Expeditionary Force - would you have believed it could?

If the German attack on Crete had not taken place, would you have believed a half massacred airborne division and piecemeally inserted mountain division could have destroyed or chased away twice as many Allied soldiers in prepared positions and with full knowledge of the assault from the island in 10 days?

If it hadn't happened would you have believed what happened in Singapore could have been possible?

If the SU had been broken by the German onslaught - would you have believed it possible?

Fortunately enough, Hitler, and Mussolini for that matter, didn't understand the importance of doing first thing first.

In my opinion, Barbarossa was a very close thing. What if the German generals had been allowed to use the German skill of maneuverability to improve their defensive positions when winter set in and Moscow had not been reached?

One little detail could have made a very big difference in the Leningrad area. If one looks at the map it is obvious. The German forces just made it to a narrow strip of the Lake Ladoga beaches. The Finns made it all the way to the River Svir between Ladoga and Onega. In the gap in-between supplies to Leningrad could still be moved, over the Ladoga ice in winter, by boat in summer. Hitler did not pressure the Finns in collaborating on closing this gap. He also had forces diverted to the Army Group Center lessening the possibility of achieving such a closure. Had it been closed Leningrad would have to fall within the winter (yes, dead sure......).

With Leningrad down large German forces would be released for a pressure eastwards to cut off the comm. lines to the Arctic Sea, Murmansk and Arkhangelsk. German naval forces would be released, too, and ship's transport to Leningrad could be used to supply that flank.

Hitler did not invade England when he should have, Mussolini wasted resources against Greece that he should have used in the Desert.

Fred