Thats a great post, but how can you be so sure of yourself?
First: the japanese fleet knew that there wasa sub out there somewhere and radio/radar-detectors could generally give the bearing. If they have numerous bearings simultaniously they can triangulate the subs position and locate it.
Even without triangulation, the captain could have sent a patrol of destroyers after the sub. This is all only theories but logical ones and the japanese commander made an error.
Next you speak of convoys of 500 ships? Only in the very end of the pacific war have I heard of such concentrations of ships, namely american taskforces. Early in the battle of the atlantic, convoys were often 10-50 ships and lightly protected, so even few uboats could wreck havoc there (like Kretschmer did during nightattacks).
One could argu that if Döntiz had even more uboats, with working torpedoes at the onset of the war, before effective asdic, DC, fast shipbuilding, enigma codebreaking and naval aircraft patrols perhaps England indeed would have been severly cut of - like Churchill feared.
Shift resources from the navy to the army? The navy was small to begin with. I dont think what would have much an impact, perhaps a few more panzer divisions and perhaps 10 more infantry divisions but it would'nt had halted the russians or made much of a strategic differance when germany was fighting on 3 fronts.
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