From bad to worse: why the forgotten war is failing
 

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...510674,00.html

The German way had a good start as long as the conditions did not detoriate. When they did, Germany's trousers slipped down. Since close to six years, needed changes were not implemented by all nations committed to Afghnaistan, and needed support levels were missed by far by the international community. Where last winter I warned that the Afghanistan mission was running on a thin line between regaining previopusly detoriating chances for success, and total failure, I must conclude from analysis like this essay and personal feedback by people I know and who have to deal in that place professionally, that the Afghanistan war is lost for sure, since I see no realistic chance anymore that Western governments would ever give it the ressources and attention that it would take to throw around the rudder again. and that would mean an incrasing of committment on all levels and in all aspects, financially, economically, militarily, by several hundred percent. Guess yourself how realistic that is - not more realistic than to see the Us sending 300.000 additional troops into Iraq.

The plain down-to-earth conclusion: after six years of war, NATO states have lost two major internatio0nal engagements - totally, completely, and miserably. Western governments will squirm for another, probably longer time to come before finding some formulations and half-truths behind which they could hide when retreating. This will only delay the score becoming offical - it will not prevent it anymore.

Fools in office thought they could repair in a cheap, easy way, what a quarter of a century of constant war has destroyed. As fools they came, and as fools they will leave.

"Trapped in the Afghan maze."

i don't pretend to have any great in depth knowledge of the situation..but there is one fundamental thing that keeps cropping up..

"we" have a clearly defined military...which is seperate from the normal civilian population..and has it's own rules...and expectations..and definitions of victory and defeat...it also has expectations of what should happen when an enemy's countrys military is engaged fought and defeated....they surrender ...and the enemy civilian government then negotiates with the civilian government of the victorious nation..

the Afghans don't actualy have a clearly defined and seperate military "army" "airforce" etc...their fighters are for the most part civilians with weapons...with entirely different views on what consitutes victory and defeat...and no matter what else comes into play regarding the rights and wrongs of those civilians beliefs politics or anything else for that matter....the military CANNOT defeat the civilian population of any country...because civilians have no concept of military rules of engagement...
the goal posts for each side are not on the same playing "pitch"

they are not even fighting the same war....
the civilian population of any country cannot surrender...it's simply not possible there is no political mechanism that allows them to surrender..
so..neither side can win and neither side can lose...and only one side can withdraw...
too many people have died allready....

So as in previous conflicts what have we learned . . . there is no substitute for victory and determined occupation and rebuilding once victorious. Without it, it allows, old factions, and new factions to be born, grow, and threaten the government which you attempt to establish. Unless you build a strong and stable government, built on good theories, and backed back a strong force, then that government will give way to those elements which will back themselves with greater force, thus replacing it.
In this case, we have not provided a strong enough force, and have allowed the government to remain weak. This means that there is no economic or physical security for the people. Thus the people seek those they believe will bring economic and physical stability.
That is not to say with a lot more effort we cannot reestablish Kabul's governance over its lands . . . however, if we do not do more . . . the current situation will continue to deteriate.
And let us not say that we cannot.
For we Can. We have larger economies, and greater access to resources then we did in the pass. Furthermore, we have more people, and a larger manpool which to draw forces which to create a stable and successful endeavor. The question is whether we have the combined willpower to take all these advantages, focus them, and bring our abilities to bear true weight on the situation.
At this junction we, as an international community, lack any willpower at all.

For most of history if not all, Kabul's power always ended at the border of the capital'S district. Beyond that, the tribes had and have the saying.

For the same reason the model of establishing a state in the way it was outlined in the opening paragraph, most likely will not work, or only would work for a limited period of time. It's like letting free sweetwater-fish in a pond of saltwater. Due to the immense cultural difference, we should not assume that recipes we used in rebuilding Western or comparable nations after wars in the past, would work here so easily as well. Note how many states that are so-called "failed" states display a comparable social-cultural environemnt comparable to the society Afghans have lived by for eons.

but that is achademical chatter. Point is that if we would have wished to keep the Taleban out once and forever, we would have needed to go in with much more determination, effort, ressources, forces (which then again would have meet growing resistance of the tribe leaders) and prepared to stay there instead of shifting the military focus to another place (America -> Iraq), whereas Germany thought that some gestures alone would do the job of securing endless thankfulness of the Afghans which then would take care of the Taleban themselves. Don't get your hands dirty, was the German motto. But the truth is: in Afghanistan rule only three masters: hunger and how to calm it, tradition and blood feud, and the greater number of rifles. these cannot be hindered by idealism alone. what use has building a school, if the children get ambushed and killed, and parents then do not dare to send their children to that place again. And wanting to limit poppy cultivation has no meaning if the income of farmers depends on it due to lacking alternatives and financial interests of warlords that can field more heavily armed armies than the Kabulistan government.

The list of priorities has been a terrible mess from the beginning. And this is true for ALL nations that got engaged there in any form. the will to do what was needed was not there in the beginning, and it is even smaller now. that Pakistan is accepted to interfere so massively in Afghanistan since decades, is of no real help either. It better is described as an additional obstacle, and support for the enemy. Don't be fooled by the current military sweep of the Pakistani along their border. It has no real meaning and is not representative for their intentions. It's immense American pressure that made them doing it, more or less against the will of major parts of the intel and military community. Also, in the past five years the Pakistani LOST all major engagements in the tribal areas in the long run, or saw their gains (intentionally?) being neutralized afterwards. No Pakistani military leader, so very many having storng sympathies for the Taleban anyway, is happy to push into these territories, knowing very well that the people there have the will and the means to make life extremely unpleasant for any invading governmental force. That's why they enjoyed almost autonomy for very long time: the government tried to ignore them and not to deal with them as best as it could.

I have said this before, and I have said this elsewhere, and I shall say it again. They said that Japanese Culture was incompatible with democracy, yet Japan was able to become democracy after over a decade of heavy occupation, rebuilding, and guidence. Afghanistan has lacked that, and you're right . . . past efforts and current efforts have been miminal at best. Furthermore, what you are saying regarding secure and economy I cannot agree with you more.
Same would go anywhere else . . . what use is it to build a school when you cannot defend those who attend it, or who travel to attend it. Back when there was the sniper on the US East Coast in 2002, parents would not send their children to school, and some people stopped travelling, in order to garuntee their well being. Not until people felt secure to continue their daily lives did they decide to leave their homes to continue life. So it is anywhere else. Therefore, it's no suprise people don't wish to go to schools, some which were built with explosives directly in the walls. And then you mention the lack of economic advancement. Well if the only market which they can afford to feed their family is poppy, is it no suprise that market forces have lead them to continue to grow it. Look at what happened with the ill supported efforts at starting wheat production. They were only given the seeds, weren't assisted in getting it to market (as poppys are), aren't paid in advance for production (as poppys are), and those who were able to get the product to market found a weak price for their product. Therefore market forces lead them to continue to grow poppies. For groups backed by anti-government forces (taliban included), provide the economic backing which make poppy production economically viable for those farmers . . . and thus they reap profit once the product is sold.

Therefore, as I have stated before, to combat anti-government forces . . . it will take bringing physical and economic security in order to influence the populace to side with th Kabul government. Without either, the degredation of the country will continue unabatted. This goes with any nation in the world. Thus what is needed to end this degredation, I have already stated. Now the real question is whether the international community, including my nation, has the willpower to take our resources and back the government of afghanistan properly in order for it to bring physical and economic security.

Well, I still think you are massively underestimating the power of local traditions, the ties of a tribal structure like to be seen in Afghnaistan, and last but not least the striking power (not necessarily militarily) of the ideology the West is up against. Also, japan was totally defeated, defenselss from A to Z, and has given up and surrendered collectively, totally, and was under undisputed influence and control of the victor. This is not the case in Iraq or Afghanistan, and never will be the case, since there is no way in which it could be acchieved without warfare on the scale of WWII again. Then, I dare say that beside the excesses of WWII, like Germany, Japan is a much more civilised culture than Afghanistan, with a higher level of moral and social, technological, educational etc. developement, whith a higher degree of humane morals and ethics, making the abyss between america and Japan look like a narrow pond, compared to the abyss between Quranic views of the world, and western civilisation. And finally, one need to look closer at Japanese politics and economy to see that these systems have gone a very different road than democracies in the West, and market societies in the West. the hidden powers behind the stage of official labels like democracy and market economy reveal almost unmoving, unchanging clans or blocks of interest groups who may compete with each other when being left alone, but towards the outside world are being allied in a spirit of unification, rallying and block-defending that is without a second example anywhere in the world, maybe with the exception of China, I don't know. Collective nationalistic block thinking and mutual support even between rivaling corporations, to defend against the outside, is extremely strong in Japan, stronger than anything economical that we know in the West. I have read authors saying that the Japanese democracy, if only looking close enough, compares closer to the democarcy they had in the former GDR, or the cooperation of different clans in the system of Mafias, than to democracies as being defined by Western constitutions.

But all that has no relevance for the situation in Islamic nations anyway. they do not compare neither to the post-war germany, nor the post-war Japan, nor do they have comparable starting conditions. One cannot compare tennis with football. and saying football matches could end 40 to love if only the team would unleash the needed ressources.

Although I agree that the cultural background of Japan and Afghanistan is different, I think you underestimate the basics of my arguement, and dismiss it based on other reasons, then the reasons I stated in my last posting. In it I put for the position that with physical and economic security, one is able to develop an area through other means, and without those two securities the present situation in a given area will deteriate allowing others who provide those two securities to mold an area as they see fit.

I understood you ( and in parts agree with you) quite well! ;) I only disagree in so far that it does not work like this in all parts of the world, but only in some. Our difference is that you take it as a general blueprint that works for all situations. Whereas I say it is a blueprint to be used only in some situations/environments. Because not all places on earth are all the same, any may be driven by very different basic variables. Certain blueprints only work for certain variables. They cannot work as well, or not at all, if only enough of their preconditions are not met.

I am always suspicious to generalized solutions, and call for individual analysis and according tailoring of solutions instead. I also accept that sometimes solutions are beyond what could be reached intentionally. Bitter, but true.

he he!..ok try this

the only people who can defeat the Afghans ..are other Afghans..
wether that is in the form of the Afghan government forces or overwhelming Afghan social dissaproval and pressure..

to allow this Afghanistan needs a strong independant government ..(same with Iraq i would guess).of course this isn't going to happen..because this runs the risk of Afghanistan doing it's own thing which may not fit in with our plans..(strong independat government etc ..self explanatory..)...(again probably the same with Iraq)....military might can only defeat military might...except as shown with Saddams Iraq and others..where that military might is coming from the countrys own armed forces...ie oppression military state dictatorship etc etc..we are not fighting military might...we are fighting civilians with weapons...hearts and minds..
the military can't win the hearts and minds of some one else's country...by staying the only intelligible message being transfered to the population is that we haven't given power back to your government...we don't trust your government..and because we don't trust your government..we will not hand power over to it..
nice catch 22 which cannot be lost on the population..(no matter how intialy gratefull they may have been for the regime change etc)
this may sound out of place...but keep rolling the dice...you still need a six to get out of jail no matter how fancy the arguments..

government by the people for the people...we either do what we say we wanted to do or stop kidding our selves..or do we not trust the Afghans?? or do we not trust the Iraq's...what is it that we want from them?? these are the questions that differentiate between liberation and colonisation..the answers are brewing in the hearts and minds of the population as we speak..and will continue to do so...at an ever accelerating rate as time goes by...soon even the neutrals will pick a side
the Aghanistan government is more than capable of taking care of the situation in Afghanistan...and if it isn't capable...then ...well...er....fill in blank as appropiate?

remember that the majority of any countrys population do not normally think in such terms as would grace a so called "high minded" debate such as this..they react to what they see experience and hear...every day..they/we have a "gut reaction" and in a democracy it's that "gut reaction" that wins elections..lol round and round we go...what DO they/we want ?

ordinary people (like our selves) doing ordinary things...frankly they/we don't want to be ruled by any one other than members of their/our own population...on that you/we/they any-one can depend..

Afghan government forces...? All the major warlords are better armed and equipped than Kabulistan.
from nothing cannot come more than nothing.

In Afghanistan...???

Only part of the truth. Truth is there never was a strong central govenment, only strong tribes, and a respect for the king, which is no more there. Pakistan will also not stop interfering with Afghnaistan. If oyu want to "pacify" Afghanistan, you must first kick the sh!t out of Pakistan - cheers! Next there is Saudi Arabia. Iran. All of these have their hands into Afghan affairs.

How could we? The Afghan government is totally helpless and 100% depending on foreign powers to even survive. Major parts of the police, political adminsitrations, the government, are shaken by deep-rooting corruption. Karzai is a king without a land, and without an army, and without money, and without... full stop. as the German hostage that just got freed this week reported (again), Afghan police is no guardian, but a security risk - they helped his kidnappers to kidnapp him and his Afgha helpers. Military trainers, both German and Americans, reprot a very high level of unreliability amongst military groups, and the police, and regular desertion is "nullyfying" all training effects.

Yes. That's why I entitled my essay back then "Trapped in the Afghan maze". as a matter of fact the Western nations have missed all chances and let all opportunities pass by in the past 5 years. They do not have a realistic understanding of the complexity of the ethnic realities ion the ground, they do not have a realistic mission goal, they do not have an exit stragey, they do not have a time table, they do not have the ressources and will to go back to it in overwhelming strength, what after 5 years of failings would be necessary to keep even a chance to reverse the course. All they have is a mind that wonders, a small armed force that does shadow-boxing, and their self-deceiving strategy that onlöy consist of this and nothing more: irrational hope.

More democracy in Egypt led to a rise of the Muslim bortherhood'S influence. Democracy in the Palestinian territories led to the Hamas in power. Democracy in Iran led to Ahmadinejadh. Democracy in Turky led to a "fundamentalistic" islamic party seizing the three key posts in the Turkish state, foriming the goivernment, and already having started to push Sharia rulings in public life, administration, and education, abandoning secular principles that had been implmented by Atatürk to prevent Sharia and Islam showing it's face in the state's institutions and public society. The Taleban are already more popular in Afghanistan tha n the Americans and their idealism. Sounds absurd, but is true. and Iraq: democracy would lead to a splitting of the country into three de facto soveign provinces (a red rag for Turkey concerning the Kurdish sector), and Iran taking the chance to boolster it's position and push against the Saudis.

Anyone else wanting to give them "democracy"? Anyone else thinking we could even afford that? The brutal truth is: democracy in Islamic societies helps not to push humanism and Western values, but prthodox, conservatiove Islamic values. Which only is logical. the querstion remains: can we afford to assist in that? the loud and yelling answer must be: NO.

Yes, exactly that: "er..." So what the f#ck are we still doing there - get your and our and all troops out there, leave Afghans and Pakistani for themselves and shoot them if they try to carry their damn djihad into the West, what they will do without doubt. We have no prize to win over there, and we do not have the will to fight how war needs to be fought: brutal, powerful, destructive and unforgiving. As Spetznatz-General Lebed, battling Schah-Massud in the Pandjir Valley, after the Afghanistan war has said (and it should be engraved into the brain of every Western politician):

"In Afghanistan I made very personal experiences with the fanatical fighters of Islam, with their utter disgust for death, and religiously motivated readiness for self-sacrifice. In that cultural area of theirs, we have nothing to win."

Lebed was MIA three times and declared KIA one time. The Pandjir Valley until today is scattered with wrecks of the Soviet tank attack. reports vary, but it is said they lost up to 200-300 APCs and tanks there in an offensive to fight down the resistance there set up by Schah-Massud. After catastrophic losses, the russians were defeated unconditionally.

Warlords today have much more modern weapons and ATGMs. If they would want to do it, they could take Kabul and Karzai not being able to do anything about it but running.

agreed:up:

and there we have the real nub of the problem...and why at the moment of truth we render our selves to be hypocritical...because WE don't believe in democracy..not "them" but "we" are the problem...it comes down to what do we want...? if we cannot even be clear about that..then it really IS hopeless...how can any other country give us what WE want..if we do not even know ourselves...

some body some where had better start telling the truth before we all die of propoganda overdoses....one may as well try to swat flys with a hammer..

either way round there are risks....stay get one set of risks... leave get another...
meantime more are killed on both sides...
it is a maze...but they knew that BEFORE ..so why do it? to win an election?
it's insane..:damn:

maybe Iraq isn't the only place that could do with a spot of regime change...what ever we do we need to put a whole lot more thought into it from now on...cos what were doing now is medievil..and it aint working

Everything will remain the same until we change presidents. Thats all we are waiting for. Loss of life doesn't matter.

1. I am far from sure that the next president will be a democrat.
2. I am far from convinced that democat's Iraq and Afghanistan policy will be substantially better. Their understanding of both places seem to be as flawed and minimal as that of the Bush gang. Hillary and Obama did not really set examples for educational enlightenment on both matters. same for the republican possible candidates as fas as I am aware of them (and that awareness is not complete).

Maybe if other nation's militarys were a bit more serious........

As members of the German Bundestag prepare to decide whether to extend the German military's mission in Afghanistan, reports of alcoholism and irresponsible behavior by commanders of Germany's "Kommando Spezialkräfte" elite unit are coming to light.

Maybe if other nation's policies would pick it's wars more wisely...

Quote:

As members of the German Bundestag prepare to decide whether to extend the German military's mission in Afghanistan, reports of alcoholism and irresponsible behavior by commanders of Germany's "Kommando Spezialkräfte" elite unit are coming to light.

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http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/show...ghanistan+beer