| Skybird |
12-08-11 07:02 AM |
The Chinese navy is the second-biggest in the world (while they have the biggest trader fleet worldwide, which is planned to be turned into a military role during war), structured into three fleets. China also is the country with the biggest pool of sailors, ship-building capacity, dockyards and harbours.
They currently undergo an accelerating modernisation program. Right now they are said to lack in communications, and air-defence. But they have a number of submarines - 68 or 86, I forgot - that should make any enemy worry. Many boats - and increasingly more of them - are modern types (amongst them around 10 Kilos of the latest type), armed with cruise missiles. The missile armaments of the surface combatants also is being improved rapidly. The topography of the waters that likely would be disputed, for the most favours submarines in many locations, making them difficult to detect. But China is also boosting its blue water capacities as well.
China has a huge arsenal of missiles of all kind, many of them being available in huge quantities, especially land-based models. This and the nearness of Chinese airbases makes any fight in the vicinity of the Chinese homeland a very daring task already, with unpredictable outcome. Numbers beat quality and experience form a certain treshhold ratio on - we learned that at the latest from the Wehrmacht in Russia.
Several vulnerable key allies of the US, namely South Korea and Japan, also Australia - are in striking range of the Chinese military, namely missiles. US planners expect the Chinese to be capable to maintain huge military operations for up to several months and beyond a 400 miles distance to China from 2015 on. Right now, they get quoted, they can do that for several weeks and at ranges of up to 400 miles.
Needless to say that the American logistical chain would be extremely long and extremely vulnerable. Whereas the Chinense would fight over Taiwan or the Chinese Sea practically on their supply bases's doorsteps.
From 2014 or 2015 on the Chinese plan to project a standing military force into the Indian ocean.
The Chinese work on control logic to fire conventionally re-armed ICBMs at naval targets, especially carriers.
The Chinese Air Force maintains roughly 1200 fighter planes, the overwhelming majorty of them interceptors. Modern types copying Russian models or being bought from Russia have started to replace the older models in huge numbers.
The public in both countries I assume to be such that high losses of the armed forces are more likely to be tolerated in China, than in the US. Which would mean the American government coming under pressure much earlier than the Chinese.
Conclusion: war with China over Taiwan or the Chinese Sea should not be taken lightly. While it is not certain that the Chinese would win, the outcome should be seen as unpredictable enough to conclude that an American victory is far from being guaranteed. The balance keeps constantly shifting in China's favour. The longer a war would last, the more likely China would win. For an American victory it would be decisive to gain a defeat of the Chinese fast and early. An ongoing war in the region I assume to be unwinnable for the US.
P.S. One thing I forgot: no other nation on Earth has a greater number of sea mines in its arsenal, than China.
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