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When Indonesia became independent in 1949, The Netherlands held onto New Guinea, a vast island group in the east of the archipelago. The Netherlands maintained permanent army (KNIL), navy, and air force units on the islands. In the early 1960s, President Soekarno started guerrilla operations against the British in Malaysia and against the Dutch in New Guinea to force them to relinquish their colonies. Indonesia built up its military with modern Russian weapons and, in 1961, Indonesia had the strongest air force in the Southern Hemisphere while The Netherlands post-war economic position had allowed it only limited military investments.
A visit of the Dutch aircraft carrier "Karel Doorman" to the region in 1961 inflamed the situation and serious incidents started the next year. In March of 1962, Dutch patrol planes sank an Indonesian Schooner and, in July, Dutch destroyers sank the Indonesian torpedo-boat Matjan Tutul carrying soldiers to New Guinea. Dutch Neptunes intercepted and shot down some of the Mitchell bombers and Dakotas dropping paras in company strength in the jungle. During the summer, a bloody guerrilla war started between these para's and Dutch Marines in the jungle of New Guinea.
Politically, the Soviet Union was rattling its sabre in Cuba, Vietnam, and gave overt support to Indonesia (including supplying crews to Indonesia's newly built submarines). President Kennedy was very worried about the threat of Soviet influence in Indonesia with its strategic sea lanes.
The Dutch Prime minister de Quai and his foreign minister Luns refused to negotiate with Soekarno and tried to make New Guinea a UN-protectorate only to face a Russian veto.
Finally, in August of 1962, Soekarno gave orders for the liberation of New Guinea by force through operation Jaya Wijaya. Merchant ships and the Indonesian navy formed up east of Celebes and the Indonesian Air Force was deployed to forward bases. Still, the newly formed Indonesian navy faced a small but battle-hardened Dutch navy. The operation was by no means a sure thing. This changed when Russia deployed Badger bombers and long-range submarines and dressed up their crews as Indonesian 'volunteers'.
The Netherlands had good intelligence, Dutch submarines had crossed the Pacific, and, for the second time that decade, the Netherlands sent conscript troops to defend the colonies.
On August 18th. Prime minister de Quai gave in under severe pressure from President Kennedy and agreed to hand over New Guinea to Indonesia later that year.
This scenario investigates what would have happened if the Netherlands would have let the conflict erupt. Soekarno had already ordered his invasion fleet to sail from the Celebes and, although some sources maintain Soekarno had not yet achieved the 3:1 superiority in forces required, the Russian forces could have played a decisive role in the battle.
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