The CHN/ China thread

[Skybird]

Since I would predict growing tensions and most likely ultimate confrontation with China, and the Taiwan issue slowly boils hotter and hotter and the Chinese economic acting affects us all already now and the cyberwar already is hotter than hot, I think a thread to collect all entries on these topics might be on order. After all, we have UK, US, and GER threads already.

[Skybird]

It looks as if Taiwan is not up to the task of defending itself with any realistic chance!? And the situation seems to constantly detoriate. Not due to Bejing pressure only, but because of Taiwans own laziness.

That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" :) policy.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-ill-prepared-for-potential-chinese-attack/a-57102659

[Jimbuna]

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" policy.

Best analogy I've read in a while :yep:

[Catfish]

[...] That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?
Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" :) policy. [...] I somehow agree .. but is there still a policy? :oops:
Last i heard was that the artificial rivets (not needed, the hull is welded, just for show) of the Gorch Fock had costed 200,000 Euros, because they all have to be welded on the plates, every each and single one.
There can be no better way than fake rivets on a 100-year-old sailing ship, to impress any adversary..

But then
1. Why does german "freedom" has to be "defended" in the Hindukusch (Afghanistan, or in Taiwan, or near Alpaha Centauri?)
2. What has NATO to do with all of it, by definition of its founding.

Defence against bigger countries from military to hegemonial threats is always a a problem for smaller countries (therefore NATO and EU), and almost all other countries are smaller than China, or Russia.

Of course, what you mean is they should do their share in a bigger context of a military union alright, but other than Germany Taiwan is alone, so the comparison to Germany is not quite right. They can probably never build arms and maintain a military on a level compared to China, alone.

What if Taiwan had own nuclear weapons? (I guess the last US ones were removed in 1972?)

[Moonlight]

Why don't you call it the "Armageddon" thread Skybird because that's what we're counting down to, these countries need to be in there for definite, China, Russia, USA, N Korea and Iran, all of these countries are wanting power beyond what they already have and nothing will stop them from attaining it.
I've been hearing the sound of distant drums for decades and this last year they've suddenly got louder and louder. One of those countries named above will be at the centre of it and once it begins there'll be no stopping it, so put aside all those daft ideas of colonising Mars or anywhere else and prepare thyself for the inevitable Nuclear apocalypse.

Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

White Horse.
Then I saw when the Lamb broke one of the six seals, and I heard one of the four living creatures saying as with a voice of thunder, "Come." I looked, and behold, a white horse, and he who sat on it had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer.

Red Horse
When He broke the second seal, I heard the second living creature saying, "Come." And another, a red horse, went out; and to him who sat on it, it was granted to take peace from Earth, and that men would slay one another; and a great sword was given to him.

Black Horse
When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; but do not damage the oil and the wine."

Pale Horse
When the Lamb broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him. Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth.

[Skybird]

Defence against bigger countries from military to hegemonial threats is always a a problem for smaller countries (therefore NATO and EU), and almost all other countries are smaller than China, or Russia.

Of course, what you mean is they should do their share in a bigger context of a military union alright, but other than Germany Taiwan is alone, so the comparison to Germany is not quite right. They can probably never build arms and maintain a military on a level compared to China, alone.

What if Taiwan had own nuclear weapons? (I guess the last US ones were removed in 1972?)
I of course understand the pressure limited demographic numbers mean for availability of young men to serve in the armed forces (Taiwan's Heinsohn war index 2017 was just 0.88, that of Hong Kong, while we are at it, at 0.56), but what the article refers to and what I wonder about is that the Taiwanese let things slide, end madatory armed service, and let trainign and morale and technological levels detoriate, while they should have an interets in achieving right the opposite. Israel has such problems, too. Look what they make of it. They do exactly the oposite. Mandatory service for men and women, mandatory retraining, keeping training and technology levels as high as they can.

[Skybird]

Does anyone know this novel already, "2034"? I think it sounds like one by Tom Clancy, Red Storm Rising maybe, but the readers' reviews at various sites are quite mixed, marking bad literaric style, shallow technological description and poor narrating. Not certain whether its worth my time...!?



https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/54211065-2034


https://www.amazon.com/2034-Novel-Next-World-War/dp/1984881256

[mapuc]

It looks as if Taiwan is not up to the task of defending itself with any realistic chance!? And the situation seems to constantly detoriate. Not due to Bejing pressure only, but because of Taiwans own laziness.

That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" :) policy.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-ill-prepared-for-potential-chinese-attack/a-57102659

That's because USA has acted like what we here in Denmark call Curling parents-USA their allied has swept everything away in front of the Taiwan people.

They-the Taiwans know USA will rush to the scene as soon China do something wrong.

Taiwan is not exactly a toothless tiger them self-They just doesn't have the quantity in material and soldiers.

Don't know where Taiwan is when it comes to compare technologies with China.

Markus

[Skybird]

Taiwan operates Mirage 2000s and older-block F-16s, as well as an own development of wich I never have heard, they also bought Hawkeye AWACS, and still run some older F5s or F20s. Their army is 200.000. Their navy operates I think 2 Diesel submarines, some Kidd destroyers and Perry frigates. Nothing that could intimidate the Chinese with their technologically superior platforms and superior numbers.

As I see it, if the Chiense mean it serious they will sweep Taiwanese latforms on sea and in the air on day one. They will simply flood defences with their own numbers.

They have older verisions of Patriot, plus Stingers and Hawk.

The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation.

I thought for long time otherwise and thought they would be set up better, consideirng that they are a high tech nation. It seems I overestimated them.

As I see it, the US would need to throw its own weight in completely to defend Taiwan. I am still in doubt whether the US would engage with China in a full blwon war, just over Taiwain. The Chinese are a completely other league than anyone the US has ever fought against before, since WW2. Taiwan by itself has simply not the smallest chance to prevent an invasion. They can only hope delay total defeat by fightign the invaders on the island by using according tactics. But that means the island's cities and factories are at Bejing's mercy and can be wiped out at will.

I wonder whether Taiwan maybe has secret nukes?

[mapuc]

^ "The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation."

As I said it's the Americans fault they have acted like curling parents

Taiwan is not alone there are other countries who USA has swept away problems that may lay ahead.

Markus

[Reece]

Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!! :oops:

[August]

Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!! :oops:


You folks had best see to your own defense. The people running my country now can't be trusted to honor our commitments.

[Reece]

Thanks, I needed that boost in spirits!! :doh:

[Skybird]

While I see a military collision with China including Australia as absolutely realistic, I doubt that a Chinese invasion of the Australian continent plays a role in it. It will come under attack, bases, installations, industry, yes, but why wasting troops and putting them at risk by invading such a big, empty place? As far as I believe I understood their military strategic goals, they do not need the northern coast for own bases. Conquesting of clearly foreign, distant territories is not what they are after.

[Jimbuna]

Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!! :oops:

Best start training those drop bears in the art of covert warfare operations then.

[Skybird]

I wonder wether the Chinese fishing boat fleets already get counted as a branch of their military? They are harassing other nations fisherboats even inside theese nations' own territorial waters. And when one challenges them on that, they send an armada of coast guard boats.

What's "suffocating" and "bullying" in Mandarin?

[August]

Thanks, I needed that boost in spirits!! :doh:


Well it might cost me my citizenship but I would volunteer to come help you drive them off and I wouldn't be the only one.

[mapuc]

It is an interesting thoughts Reece came up with

Lets play a made-up war game scenarios.

Year
2022
Month
June
Day 11
Time
0600 local time.
A massive Chinese armada consisting of a huge air fleet and ships is heading towards Taiwan

China has decided to invade Taiwan.

What kind of response can we expect from Taiwan-USA-Japan ?
Will the war extend to other countries Like Australia and South Korea ?
Will North Korea see a change to do something not so clever now if SK is fighting China ?

Markus

[August]

It is an interesting thoughts Reece came up with

Lets play a made-up war game scenarios.

Year
2022
Month
June
Day 11
Time
0600 local time.
A massive Chinese armada consisting of a huge air fleet and ships is heading towards Taiwan

China has decided to invade Taiwan.

What kind of response can we expect from Taiwan-USA-Japan ?
Will the war extend to other countries Like Australia and South Korea ?
Will North Korea see a change to do something not so clever now if SK is fighting China ?

Markus


Did this massive armada suddenly materialize out of thin air? How does such an intelligence failure happen with todays technology?

[Skybird]

It is an interesting thoughts Reece came up with

Lets play a made-up war game scenarios.

Year
2022
Month
June
Day 11
Time
0600 local time.
A massive Chinese armada consisting of a huge air fleet and ships is heading towards Taiwan

China has decided to invade Taiwan.

What kind of response can we expect from Taiwan-USA-Japan ?
Will the war extend to other countries Like Australia and South Korea ?
Will North Korea see a change to do something not so clever now if SK is fighting China ?

Markus
I would expect a massive cyber offensive first to cause confusion, disruption, sensor and intel blindess, damage, short: messing of C3I infrastructure and bringing down civil production and traffic, causing panic, reducing reaction times. Then a systematic attempt to isolate the air space around the island so that no supplies and reinforcements could get in, combined with the effort to keep the US carriers at long distance so that they cannot strike so easily. Extensive ASW operations as well. Maybe even attack them directly. I think they have the capability to kill them - if they manage to pinpoint their location. Just then I expect an intensification of the missile bombardement of the island, both industrial and military targets, and an armada of amphibious units and troop carriers crossing the strait. Probably also intense infiltration via special commands, for sabotaging, and collecting intel, many days ahead.

Some of what will happen, maybe will remind of what we have seen on the Crimean, and the Russian-Georgian war. The Russian tricks to spread confusion and keep the world wondering instea d of reacting, was extremely successful.

For the US, the risks of high losses are very immense, so nare the risks for the Chiense. But by their state setup and mentality they are better prepared to digest them. The US will be given hell at home.

I put my money on China. The open question only is at what price (losses) they will get their will. But they will get it.

The only thing that leaves doubt sin me is that China has a similiarly low war index as the US or the West. Party rule and totalitarianism and proaganda is all nice and well, still the society in China, its age structure, is atypical for an expansive aggressive political course. In 2017, China ha da war index of 0.99, the US of 0.96.

click:
https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/War-Index-1.png


I do not expect too much from Japan and Soutgh Korea, by numbers their possibilities simply are too limited.



As the US, i would do all what militarily could be done to widen the combat zone from Taiwan to all the coastal industrial centres and metropoles of the Chinese homeland. Why helping in the destruction of Taiwan by fighting there, instead of carrying the destruction to the attacker and making him bleed on his own land? If China does not pay the price, its pointless to fight it. This forces China to spread its forces to protect all its coast, instead of amassing its power at and around Taiwan, gaining absolute superiority there. Stealth, and long range missiles will play a dominant role. Go for the industry, the economy, the energy production, dams, nuclear powerplants, everything. Soft targets. And by that, maximising the pain for China and the price it has to pay. The public mujst feel that this war is not just some distant patriotic show event, but bites them into their noses right in their own private lives.



Both sides will desperately run extensive ASW operations. Numbers again are against the Americans.



IMO key would be to inflict and maximise punishing damages and losses on the Chinese - but not in the battle for Taiwan directly (which would only accumalate collateral damage to Taiwan), but everywhere in China where the distance allows it. China is a highly developed and industrialised country in certain coastal regions: these translate into juicy, target rich areas, and I would hit there with all power I have, and repeatingly, as hard as possible. It may also help to minimise own losses. Force preserverance is of the essence, if you are as low in numbers and ammo, as the West and the US today is.



Focussing on a military and defensive fighting at Taiwan, imo has absolutely no chance to win, but is a guarantee for desaster. This war shall at no cost be played according to the Chinese rule book. Their rules must be avoided, at all costs. One needs to get out of their screenplay, and immediately.



This way ^, it will be a very bloody mess, outstandingly so. And I am not certain that American leaders have what it takes to turn into the kind of monsters that are needed to order for a fight that could win that war. Global trade will take a dive. And Alaska and the US West Coast are open for retaliation. So are shipping lanes and trade line bottle necks around the globe. The Chinese constantly work on getting a globally operational navy, and widen the network of support bases around all continents.



More ammo stocks in stealthed missiles and cruise missiles. More submarines. More surface platforms. More planes and/or drones. More cyberwar competences. High Tech compensates low own numbers to a certain degree, but not beyond. And Chinese hits at the West Coast must be expected if America plays outside the Chinese rule book and turns the war into something nasty. If America doe snto do this, it better does not even start playing.


Honestly said, I do not only doubt the US would risk a full war with China over Taiwan - I even recommend not to do it. Preserve the forces to protect your Western flank, and live some years longer as a slowly farewelling global superpower, while the Chinese rise and overtake you anyway in this century. What's in for you in Taiwan? Only losses, no gains.



Maybe the lonely single German frigate that is being send now, could improve the situation. :D

[mapuc]

@ August I could have started several weeks before and wrote
The Chinese says they are planning on a huge exercise. But I guessed this wasn't needed.

@Skybird Thank you-It was like reading some pages from Tom Clancy.

I hope that China doesn't makes the threat seriously and attack Taiwan.

When it comes to Taiwan and Ukraine I have this deep feeling that our western leaders are very good at roaring loudly...sadly its toothless.

Is this good or bad...Well this depends on how much we are prepared to offer to draw a line in the sand against China and Russia.

Are we willing to exchange nukes if it should come so far ??
We have to take this into the equation

Markus

[Jimbuna]

The superpowers will only use nukes in a retaliatory strike should they be attacked with nukes first.

[Skybird]

I forgot to mention that all the Chinese military efforts could be summarised by two terms: "global operation capability" (they are still far from that, but it is clear they work on getting there), and "area denial" (a capability they possibly already have acchieved: keeping US airplanes and carriers more than an arms length away. What battleships were in WW2, carriers maybe will be in a Chinese-US war).

[mapuc]

The superpowers will only use nukes in a retaliatory strike should they be attacked with nukes first.

True

But we do not know how the Chinese will react if they are thrown back in their attempt to take Taiwan or if they are pressed back from the South China sea.

We do not know how USA will react if they got a good beating in the effort to defend Taiwan or failed in pressing China back.

It all depends on how much our western leaders are prepared to sacrifice.

Markus

[Reece]

. . . and don't forget, if your country is going down then you may as well take out the offenders as well!! :oops:

[Jimbuna]

Nope, not gonna happen. The US are only about protecting Taiwan as opposed to taking Chinese territory.

[August]

@ August I could have started several weeks before and wrote
The Chinese says they are planning on a huge exercise. But I guessed this wasn't needed.


There are many tell tale signs to differentiate between a training exercise and actual preparations for a shooting war Markus. Our military has entire organizations devoted to detecting and identifying them. Several weeks of Chinese war preparations can't be hidden for an operation of the scale that you are talking about. These preparations hey will be met by several weeks of similar preparations by Taiwan and US forces.
The only way I believe the ChiComs have a chance in your scenario is to catch the US and its allies completely flatfooted, achieving complete surprise which imo just doesn't sound very realistic.

[Skybird]

Taiwan and the Ukraine and Biden and the EU.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.ortneronline.at/61905-2/


Both Taiwan and the Ukraine once were nuclear powers, but gave up their arsenals - last but not least due to pressure from Washington. How many tears they meanwhile have cried over this mistake of theirs we will never know.

[Moonlight]

You'll never know if the USA gave them back, that's if they ever took them back in the first place.
We'll know for definite if the mushroom clouds suddenly start appearing in the sky, I wonder if Russia or China are thinking this as well.

[mapuc]

Watched one of these video clip Jim posted in our Share Your Favorite Naval Pictures and Videos thread.

While watching it I came to the conclusion

I may not know much about military strategy, but I do know that if China turn their theoretical threat into practice, the number of causality on both side will be huge.

The question is of course who will benefit from this major lost of life and materials ?

My hunch says me that it really doesn't matter if China should lose 100.000 men during one day.

Losing 100.000 men would be devastating for USA and Taiwan.

I could be wrong though.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Watched one of these video clip Jim posted in our Share Your Favorite Naval Pictures and Videos thread.

While watching it I came to the conclusion

I may not know much about military strategy, but I do know that if China turn their theoretical threat into practice, the number of causality on both side will be huge.

The question is of course who will benefit from this major lost of life and materials ?

My hunch says me that it really doesn't matter if China should lose 100.000 men during one day.

Losing 100.000 men would be devastating for USA and Taiwan.

I could be wrong though.

Markus

You're probably right Markus because I don't think China values lives all that much and they certainly have a much bigger number to sacrifice for their cause.

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:
https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/bald-krieg-um-taiwan-xi-jinping-in-der-ueberlegenheitsfalle-ld.1612685


Xi Jinping caught in the superiority trap - why China could soon be tempted to open war against Taiwan



What will happen in the future on the Taiwan Strait is a core question of world politics, which also determines the prosperity in Europe. Xi Jinping is thinking of making the dream of a united China come true under his leadership - with violence if necessary.

The figures speak for themselves: In 2020, Chinese military aircraft violated the “air defense and identification zone” designated by Taiwan for over 100 days. According to the Ministry of Defense in Taipei, this was the case again on 75 days by mid-April 2021. The number of machines involved is in the hundreds; These are slow-moving, propeller-driven reconnaissance aircraft, but also modern fighter jets and strategic bombers that can carry nuclear weapons. In March, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense had to admit that, due to the strain on resources for the aging air fleet, it would no longer be possible to deploy its own interceptors and that it might be necessary to limit oneself to watching the People's Liberation Army fighters only on the anti-aircraft screens. -

Against this background, the Commander in Chief of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson, spoke at a hearing in the US Senate in March that China could attempt to invade Taiwan within six years. The publicist Anne Applebaum exaggerated this on Twitter in April when she put forward the thesis that the Biden administration must be prepared for an invasion of Taiwan that is imminent at any time. -

In striking contrast, there is the sober, almost provocative serenity in Taiwan itself, where there is no sign of an imminent threat of war. The democratically governed island republic has come to terms with the threat that has persisted for decades. Domestically, issues such as stagnating wages, the rights of the LGBTQ community and the energy transition dominate. It was not until American pressure that a Taiwanese chip company recently ceased business with a company in the Chinese supercomputer program, which, according to US reports, is working on the most modern weapons that pose a serious military threat to Taiwan as well. -

The military performance of the Chinese army, which has not been involved in a war for decades, remains completely unclear. -

In view of this, what is the current situation? Is the danger of war in the West exaggerated by interested parties or is Taiwanese politics and society simply underestimating the Chinese determination to solve the "Taiwan question" by force? The answer to this can be summed up in a very simple formula. The decisive factor is a look at the time axis: in the short term, before the 100th birthday of the Chinese Communist Party in July and its next party congress in autumn 2022, no dramatic escalation is to be expected. After that, however, the Chinese patience with the status quo under the increasingly personalized rule of Xi Jinping is likely to come to an end, and Taiwan is likely to become the focal point in the looming comprehensive system and great power conflict between China and the USA. -

For years it has been a popular occupation among military planners and strategists: To assess the threat situation in the Taiwan Strait, military hardware (e.g. aircraft, submarines) is counted, the balance of power between those involved is analyzed, and the prerequisites for a Conquest of Taiwan by China is being scrutinized. The findings here are unmistakable: the military weight in the Taiwan Strait has shifted in favor of China, the USA has already fallen behind the People's Republic in important categories (such as the number of land-based short- and medium-range missiles). -

Even analysts in Taiwan attest to its own army that it is just an “empty shell”. The topography of Taiwan (a few flat, shallow stretches of beach in connection with mostly steep rocky coasts) and the climatic conditions (including a typhoon season lasting several months), on the other hand, make a landing operation on Taiwan seem like an incalculable game of vabanque. -

However, all of these investigations are the easier part for outside observers; it is much more difficult to look at the “software”: What does China want with the new military material? What can China do with it? Publicly available strategy papers and the Chinese military give an answer to the first question: Put Taiwan under military pressure, in particular to intimidate the pro-independence advocates and deter the USA from intervening in a conflict over Taiwan by incalculable costs. The military performance of the People's Liberation Army, which has not been involved in a war for decades, remains completely unclear. The interaction of branches of arms (so-called “combined warfare”) tends to exist on paper, the level of performance of a Chinese pilot in an aerial combat can at best be simulated. -

More important than the primary view of the military dimension, however, is the appreciation of the context. The "Goldilocks" era that has lasted since the beginning of the nineties is over, namely the best of all worlds for the Taiwan Strait, when the goals and means of all parties were essentially in harmony: no incalculable shaking of the status quo as well relying on economic interdependence between China and Taiwan. - Everyone involved believed that time was on their side. In the USA and Taiwan it was hoped that political reforms would take place on the mainland, in China that the ever closer economic exchange would automatically pave the way to unification with Taiwan. This phase is irrevocably over, all sides have contributed to it. -

In Taiwan, social and demographic change over the years has led to a specific “Taiwan identity”. Young Taiwanese today sometimes compare China with the Netherlands or Portugal, the former colonial powers that left their mark on the island, but with whom there is nothing beyond that. Under Trump, the US pushed for the delivery of modern weapons to Taiwan and sent high-ranking delegations to Taipei. US President Biden has continued this policy with other omens (emphasis on human rights and inclusion of the allies) up to now. -

The most important changes, however, are clearly to be found on the part of China under Xi Jinping. The pragmatism towards Taiwan that we encountered until a few years ago has come to an end; a climate of nationalistic upsurge and ideological backwardness now dominate. The economic rise of China, especially the pull of its own market on western companies, has changed the risk calculation in China. Under the slogan “the East is rising, the West is falling”, the conviction that originated from Marx's historical materialism is breaking through that China will win in the systemic struggle with the West, as it were, according to the laws of nature. -

This does not automatically lead to a military conflict over Taiwan. In the short term, Beijing will continue to rely on a combination of military pinpricks, diplomatic isolation, economic incentives, cyberattacks and the infiltration of the political system against Taiwan. The role of the head of state and party leader Xi Jinping personally will be decisive, both positively and negatively. Viewed positively, he is the only one who, because of his standing and personal power, can put a stop to escalating nationalist demands. -

On the other hand, all signals indicate that he sees himself as the only guarantor of securing China's rise to a great power, symbolized not least by the reintegration of Taiwan. In a political system with totalitarian tendencies that is now highly tailored to him, his personal willingness to take risks will be a central variable in the future. One would expect from the outside that a rational view of the possible costs of a military adventure would have to prevent Beijing from unconditional escalation. -

However, this point of view only covers part of the Chinese calculation. One should not lose sight of the heroization of their own glorious willingness to make sacrifices (which, for example, led to victory in the Korean War), which is widespread among political decision-makers in China and repeatedly instrumentalized by Xi, opposed to a war-weary, exhausted, internally torn USA . A fatal momentum of their own could easily feed from these ideological narratives. -

What will happen on the Taiwan Strait in the future is a key question that will also determine prosperity in Europe. China and Taiwan are the decisive links in transnational value and supply chains for high-tech products of all kinds. If an unusual drought in Taiwan is already having an impact on the chip production of the world market leader TSMC and the availability of semiconductors in the West, everyone can imagine for themselves what would be at stake in an armed conflict in the Taiwan Straits involving the United States.

[mapuc]

^ Reading most of this makes it clear for me. China is 80-100 % determined in attempting to take Taiwan if it's going to happen within the next 0-6 years I don't know.

What is more interesting for me as a citizens in a western country is what type response I can expect from us-The West(NATO/USA)

Some of our leaders will not be sitting and crocheting while Taiwan is under attack.

Markus

[Skybird]

Its not so much what the West wants to do but what it can do.


If the Chinese strategy of denying US air power and carriers access to the combat zone, can keep them away, then its over. Submarines will not change that then, and will become the hiunted themselves if they dare trying to interrupt Chinese operations for invasion in the strait. Its too small an area, we talk about a waterway 300km long and 150 km wide, thats roughly just one quarter of the central and southern part of the Baltic that separated West Germany from the USSR in the cold war, and its roughly as wide as the Persian Gulf, but not even half as long. The Chinese can bring up more own submarines there than the US could ever hope.

[mapuc]

I don't think the US military is an organization who could be seen as an old lion without teeth.

I think US military can do much damage to Chinese..with conventional weapons

The question is how much damage can China take before they think twice and return to port ?

Markus

[Skybird]

I think the Chinese must not just collect hits, but can dish out heavily as well. Both against Taiwan and the US Navy. And Taiwan is immobile, cannot swim away. It is fully covered by the Chinese missile rain from static platforms - and that still excludes Chinese fighter- and bomber- and naval-assets-lauched missiles.

In WW1, they had battleships dominating and winning the war. Then it was thought that battleships wiould win the next big war, WW2, but the carriers had something against that, and took victory instead. Now it is thought carrier would win the next big war. I do not necessarily think so. Its technology and paradigm from an old, past era. The dimension of cyberspace did not exist, long ranmge ,mi8ssiles and autonomous drones did not exist, the orbital space as an extension of the principle to dominate the higher altitude did not exist. And former turned into carrier killers did not exist. Carriers are weapons from a past, old war, nice to impress inferior small enemies - but one on same eye level...?

There is also a clash of different war cltures. In Asia, the war of patience and attrition is the big thing, in the West powers aimed more at enforcing the last, the winning decisive battle. War of attrition versus quick decision seeking. Two very different tempers clash here. You can see that in Yamato's decision at Pearl Harbour to maximise chances for preserving the Japanese fleet by folding over the chance to send a third attack wave and searching the carriers that had escaped. The historians verdict on this decision is split. What I described has something to do with his decision.



Militaries are very prone to imagine that the next war will be won by the strategies and tools that were used to win the last war. When one realsies that that has been once again a mistake, it usually is too late (again).

[Rockstar]

"Hybrid warfare is a military strategy which employs political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyberwarfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, lawfare and foreign electoral intervention. By combining kinetic operations with subversive efforts, the aggressor intends to avoid attribution or retribution."
April 30, 2021 The U.S. is Trying to Light the Match of Islamic Extremism in China’s Xinjiang (https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/04/30/the-u-s-is-trying-to-light-the-match-of-islamic-extremism-in-chinas-xinjiang/)

by Vijay Prashad – Jie Xiong (https://www.counterpunch.org/author/vjyjxnprd1287/)

https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/04/30/the-u-s-is-trying-to-light-the-match-of-islamic-extremism-in-chinas-xinjiang/

"Accusations by the United States government and its allies about genocide and forced labor in Xinjiang have brought China’s westernmost province into the gaze of the international media. This approach toward Xinjiang defines the information war prosecuted by Washington. In our conversations with Professor Li Bo and Professor Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University, as well as intellectuals from Kashgar and Ürümqi (Xinjiang’s capital), we developed a storyline that includes the dynamics of Xinjiang’s social development, the threats of extremism, and the enfolding of its problems into the wider hybrid war unleashed against China."

While Germany builds windmills and flower gardens in Afghanistan. We're waging a hybrid war. Taiwan in the east, Xinjiang in the west, Mongolia in the north. With many allies, Brits, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia.

[Rockstar]

...We're waging a hybrid war. Taiwan in the east, Xinjiang in the west, Mongolia in the north. With many allies, Brits, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia.


Opps I forgot to mention the Phillippine hybrid warriors too.
The Philippine foreign minister on Monday demanded in an expletive-laced Twitter message that China’s vessels get out of disputed waters, the latest exchange in a war of words with Beijing over the South China Sea.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-foreign-minister-issues-expletive-laced-tweet-over-china-sea-dispute-2021-05-03/

[Catfish]

April 30, 2021 The U.S. is Trying to Light the Match of Islamic Extremism in China’s Xinjiang (https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/04/30/the-u-s-is-trying-to-light-the-match-of-islamic-extremism-in-chinas-xinjiang/)
[...]
While Germany builds windmills and flower gardens in Afghanistan. We're waging a hybrid war. Taiwan in the east, Xinjiang in the west, Mongolia in the north. With many allies, Brits, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia.
Always a good idea to wage war against the biggest banker that got you by the balls.
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355
The "Brits" of course urgently need war too, to divert from their homemade mess. And why not involve all of NATO? I mean China is about torture and brain washing, all join the humanitarian effort to bring freedom and democracy (we all know it is about hegemony, power and money alright).
There should be other means to talk with China, but the last four years have left their mark.

I wish you good luck with your war, but after leaving Afghanistan and the brilliant successes there, in Iraq and Iran (anyone remember the Shah and what led to what they have today) some might want to abstain for now.

[Skybird]

Phillipiney hybrid warriors? Where? As all others they get massively harassed at sea by hundreds of chinese coastguard cutters and fishing boats in international waters.

[Rockstar]

I get a kick out of this several years ago Trump starts a trade war and slaps sanctions on China in a bid to check their expansion. Dem fanbois were livid how dare he!


Now that Biden is in office and not only does it continue. But more join in! LOL

Since then, the EU’s executive branch and Germany have each formulated legislation that would make life harder for Chinese entities to invest, while joining the U.S. in swapping tit-for-tat sanctions with Beijing. Italy’s government has turned from an enthusiastic backer of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative to blocking planned acquisitions by Chinese companies. And in France, China’s ambassador didn’t even show up when summoned in March, citing “agenda reasons.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tensions-spill-over-europe-230112672.html


Welcome aboard Germany thanks for joining the financial sector of the hybrid war ;)

[Rockstar]

Australia is reviewing China’s ownership of key port: Report




The National Security Committee of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Cabinet had asked the defense department to advise on the ownership, Dutton said in an interview with the Sydney Morning Herald published late Sunday. Asked whether the government was mulling forced divestment, the minister said it would consider the national interests.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/5/3/australia-says-its-reviewing-the-chinese-ownership-of-a-port?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

[Catfish]

^ "Defense department", national interests always fill the pockets of the arms industry, nice that China helps.

Or not:
"China Is a Paper Dragon
U.S. policy makers should look to the future with a little more confidence and a lot more trust in trade, markets, and the superior potential of a free people."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/

[Skybird]

Oh no, not that naive and historically rejected "change by trade" nonsense again. Has not worked on Russia. Has not qwiorked on China. Over decades. Has not worked at all. Never.

Not. One. Bit.
And we alos shoudl stop assuming that the idea of what freeedom is, is the everywehre the same, necessarily. The willingness in Asia to wear Covid masks and the lack of discipline to folow that exmaple in the West, tells something.

Trade wants predictable law enmviuronments, whether that law comes from a free or a tyrannic regime, doe snto matter that much for globla actors. And ordinary working class people are more concerned for running their lives and getting over the month, than global idealism.

[Catfish]

Oh no, not that naive and historically rejected "change by trade" nonsense again. Has not worked on Russia. Has not qwiorked on China. Over decades. Has not worked at all. Never.
Please explain how trade has ignited wars in the last 60 years? Has not worked with Russia? My take is they changed, wanted to make this the future basis, and were rejected by western FAIL. So Putin was in a way inevitable.

Trade wants predictable law enmviuronments, whether that law comes from a free or a tyrannic regime, doe snto matter that much for globla actors. And ordinary working class people are more concerned for running their lives and getting over the month, than global idealism."Predictable law environments", right, now who was it who screwed that up four years ago? Trump or Jinping? You think that those "peasants running their lives" are worse than your global idealism and going to war for it?

[Skybird]

Look at Russia, china and Iran and then you explain us in how far change-by-trade has worked good for us. It worked for them no doubt. But not for us. We won oursleves three ever more powerful and ruthlessly acting enemies that without change-by-trade doctrine would not be where they are now.

[mapuc]

I have boiled it down to two question

1. How eager is China in their effort to take Taiwan ?
and if this is true then:
2. What type of response can we expect from our politicians ?

These are the most important questions.

Markus

[Moonlight]

Xi Jinping is all mouth and no trousers, the outrage by celebrities and citizens alike from all over the world will be China's undoing, it will be economic Armageddon for China and they know it.

[Skybird]

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/conflict-with-china-a-high-likelihood-says-top-australian-general-20210503-p57ogv.html


https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/05/china/australia-china-war-military-mic-intl-hnk/index.html


Still, the Australians seem to really try to get the Chinese out of Port Darwin.


I wish Europeans would do similarly with Chinese beachheads in Europe. As far as I am concerned we already are at war with china, just short of the dropping-bombs level. Trade, finances, economic dependencies, cyberwar,m economic espionage, theft of business informations. And still Europeans stick their heads into the sand .


Appeasement, indifference, optimistic "hope" - the traditional recipe for utmost desaster.

[Skybird]

Xi Jinping is all mouth and no trousers, the outrage by celebrities and citizens alike from all over the world will be China's undoing, it will be economic Armageddon for China and they know it.
Nationalistic sentiment can unleash its own dynamic that the man at the helm than no longer controls. I do not rule caculöated war. But I also do not rule out war that is not wanted, but happens due to this situational self-dynamic, or accident. The Chinese behaviour has become extremely aggressive. And they do not leave it just to words anymore.
And not underestimate this: in their view they claim what is their legitimate historical heritage anyway. China has always seen itself as the navel of the Earth, the centre of things, the focus of all human civilization. In their thinking we owe to them to accept their claim for dominance.
Very feudal a selfunderstanding.

[Jimbuna]

Whichever way it ends up going to we will probably find out within the next five to ten years.

Thankfully I'm too old for conscription but my kids aren't.

[Skybird]

Sometimes even a blind hen can find a grain.
Die Zeit writes:



The investment agreement between the European Union and China has been postponed for a longer period. Work on it could only be resumed once the relationship with the leadership in China relaxes, leading MEPs assume. The deepening of economic relations between the EU and China aimed at with the agreement will thus be postponed for an indefinite period of time. The background to the tensions are, among other things, Beijing’s measures against EU parliamentarians. -

In March, the EU imposed sanctions on four party and regional representatives from Xinjiang Province for cracking down on the Muslim Uyghur minority. In response to the EU sanctions, Beijing for its part imposed sanctions on EU politicians and scientists, including Reinhard Bütikofer, the EU-Green China expert, and Michael Gahler, the CDU MEP. Beijing's reactions to elected representatives and independent scientists were disproportionate compared to the more symbolic measures taken by the EU. -

According to Bütikofer, China's leadership has "grossly miscalculated" the sanctions against EU representatives. It was a "personal embarrassment" for President Xi Jinping, who had made Europe and the trade agreement a top priority in December. Xi did not achieve his goals, despite the active help of Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and French President Emmanuel Macron, said Bütikofer. -

The agreement was staged by Merkel and Macron without proper consultations with other EU countries, says the chairman of the trade committee in the EU parliament, Bernd Lange (SPD). It should be enforced "with the crowbar". The agreement is now in the fridge, he sees "little chance" that something will change in the next two years - "especially not as long as the sanctions against colleagues continue to apply". -
-----------

What now is important is that this stupid treaty does not get revived later on and the usual EU gangsters like Merkel, Macron et. al. do not conspirate behind locked door in some hidden backroom again to play foul once again. The EU has a well-established tradition to do like this: if the head sof sates do not get their will by the rules, then they do what they must to get it by bending and even breaking the rules.

Any further Chinese aggression may help in achieving this goal, I hope. But then, I also know that politics often only has a short-term memory, and that its real name of the game is, in Monopoly-style, "Opportunismy".

[Jimbuna]

What now is important is that this stupid treaty does not get revived later on and the usual EU gangsters like Merkel, Macron et. al. do not conspirate behind locked door in some hidden backroom again to play foul once again. The EU has a well-established tradition to do like this: if the head sof sates do not get their will by the rules, then they do what they must to get it by bending and even breaking the rules.



It has always been that way with those two...quite sickening really.

[Skybird]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-fears-quieter-chinese-threat-u-s-warns-invasion-n1266216


I do not really agree with that opportunistic "optimism".

I agree that if Xi wants to create a legacy, he must not necessarily pick Taiwan, but could also choose to start a war with Japan over the known disputed islands. China could take them in a surprise coup and then dig itself deeply in, making it very difficult if not impossible for Japan to kick them out (since Japan's military also is untested and not really in top shape anymore, and limited in numbers). Any internatonal sanctions and sentiment against China could then help the regime to strengthen its position with the people at home.

[Skybird]

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/chinesischen-sanktionen-gegen-deutsche-wissenschaftler-warum-ich-nicht-mehr-nach-china-reise/27172172.html

When you have a criminal regime of barbars and hijackers in place, such things can happen. I also remind of the laws regarding HongKong that put every foreign travel at risk as well.

Businessmen and private tourists alike should boycott travels to China. Western states should mull legislation that makes it clear that everybody doing so does so at his own risk and that his nation's government will and must not do anything to get him unlocked and released again. The Chinese blackmailing must be interrupted this way. If you think you must go to China - do it at your own damn risk. No political concessions by your nation must be undertaken to get you out again if you are the lucky winner of a special Chinese hospitality.

I think we should and must also end the access of Chinese students to Western universities. There is no chnage coming from trade or tourism or student exchnage, it only strengthens the Chiense reiogme,l does so since severla decades. Has not worked with Russia as well, the cold war seems to be as cold again as it ever was. Its a know-how-drain and a transfer of expertise to a hostile regime. And the regime in Bejing abuses this option systematcially. Student exhcnage to them is an state-ordered intel operation.

So, with this now I think I can forget any idea about travelling to China myself. Would be a dumb move form my side, when the NSA can track every keyboard button press I do, then the Chinese services can probably do something like that as well. Not that I ever wanted to go there...

"Touristen sind eine lustgesteuerte saudämliche Meute." (a former history teacher from my schooldays on travels to exotic places in natural habitats - and he said that already in the early 80s :) )

[Rockstar]

Uyghur imams targeted in China's Xinjiang crackdown

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56986057

...China is believed to have detained more than a million Uyghurs and other Muslims in Xinjiang, a large region in north-western China that is home to various ethnically Turkic peoples. The state has been accused of human rights abuses in the region, including forced labour (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/nz0g306v8c/china-tainted-cotton), sterilisation (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53220713) and rape (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55794071).


Most of those detained in Xinjiang are sent to "re-education" facilities — prison-like camps where they are held for indeterminate periods of time without charge. But others have been given formal prison sentences, the number and severity of which have increased dramatically since 2017.

[Catfish]

China has invested heavily in Africa, and it goes on..
"Sierra Leone sells rainforest for Chinese harbour"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/17/sierra-leone-sells-rainforest-for-chinese-fishmeal-plant

[Gerald]

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/conflict-with-china-a-high-likelihood-says-top-australian-general-20210503-p57ogv.html


https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/05/china/australia-china-war-military-mic-intl-hnk/index.html


Still, the Australians seem to really try to get the Chinese out of Port Darwin.


I wish Europeans would do similarly with Chinese beachheads in Europe. As far as I am concerned we already are at war with china, just short of the dropping-bombs level. Trade, finances, economic dependencies, cyberwar,m economic espionage, theft of business informations. And still Europeans stick their heads into the sand .


Appeasement, indifference, optimistic "hope" - the traditional recipe for utmost desaster.
We must thank EU to very weak deal in trade and any economic stimulus, but each country have a responsible to act accordingly in that way, however it's too late for that to have impact in current situation.

[Skybird]

The thugs in Beijing show again what beautiful new black leather gloves they have.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57328868

[Jimbuna]

I fear the South China Sea is already as good as lost to the Chinese.

[Skybird]

They will not stop there. Why should they, if bullying others works so well?

[mapuc]

USA is up to a tough job, trying to convince countries around South China sea that they have to give up.

I doubt countries like Japan, Philippines and Vietnam would let China take all this which belong to everyone.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

They will not stop there. Why should they, if bullying others works so well?

I would have thought the best alternative to war would be for a large collective of countries to stop trading with them.

[Skybird]

USA is up to a tough job, trying to convince countries around South China sea that they have to give up.
I doubt countries like Japan, Philippines and Vietnam would let China take all this which belong to everyone.

What can they do? Nobody of them is strong enough to survive a war with China at sea and in the air. Even if they build a defence union, I do not see that. Not to mention that China will not limit hostilities to purely traditional military means. Cyberattacks. Currency wars. Market manipulations. China will push them against the wall, and already does so.

[Skybird]

I would have thought the best alternative to war would be for a large collective of countries to stop trading with them.
Yes. Now tell that the export-heavy Germans, and also the many other actors (including the US) weighing short-sighted profit interests and a dogma of "change by trade" as heavier . Here in Europe many are eager to not ease relations, because then all the heavy investments made there would be lost. And so they invest even deeper, and more. Nobody wants to face these losses, and so they ignore China'S aggressiveness.

[mapuc]

What can they do? Nobod yof them is strogn eogh to surirve a war witbChibna at sea and i n the air. Even if they build a defence union, I do not see that. Not to mentiin that China will not limit hostilities to purely traditional military means. Cyberattacks. Currency wars. Market manipulations.

I'm not saying you're wrong in your statement.

I only tried to tell USA is up to a hard diplomatically job convincing their allied to give what China demand.

USA and its allied could draw a line in the sand..but would this be a good thing ?

Markus

[Catfish]

I would have thought the best alternative to war would be for a large collective of countries to stop trading with them.

Good idea, but other than what Skybird said Germany and the West generally profits very well from producing and buying all kinds of stuff in China; german Bosch has transferred a lot of production to China as VW and others, the US with Apple but also steel industries, and the UK leading by example?

China replaces Germany as UK’s biggest import market (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/25/uk-trade-with-eu-falls-by-23-in-first-quarter-as-brexit-and-covid-hit)

We got used to be able to buy cheap basic resources and meanwhile even high tech products made by workers that earn 40 cents an hour, while "the West" still demands the same old high prices from its western customers by selling chinese products; they are making billions that way.
China already switches to its local inland market to come to terms with future sanctions.

[Jimbuna]

Sooooo.......we're more or less buggered. Nothing can be done that will have a tangible or meaningful effect?

[Skybird]

The question is not what can be done, actually there are quite some things that could be done. The problem is the will and determination is lacking on all sides - except the Chinese side. Their determination is resolute.

China could be isolated. Its economy could be contained and suffocated. A military and war-ready alliance could be formed. Their bullying could be answered on equal terms. Their playgrounds at the UN and in the third world could be isolated and contained. Relations could be frozen. Travel restrictions implemented. Trade deals forbidden. Company cooperation prohibited. Military forces in the region massively beefed up. Cyberwar skills boosted. Tourism stopped.

Its not what could not be done. Its about what is not wanted to be done. doing it would ruin precious, long-held illusions. Many supersmart intelligence beasts would need to admit that they were wrong since decades. A mass extinction of narcissistic egos would follow. Or not - I mean shamelessness is a key ability of politicians.

[mapuc]

The question is not what can be done, actually there are quite some things that could be done. The problem is the will and determination is lacking on all sides - except the Chinese side. Their determination is resolute.

China could be isolated. Its economy could be contained and suffocated. A military and war-ready alliance could be formed. Their bullying could be answered on equal terms. Their playgrounds at the UN and in the third world could be isolated and contained. Relations could be frozen. Travel restrictions implemented. Trade deals forbidden. Company cooperation prohibited. Military forces in the region massively beefed up. Cyberwar skills boosted. Tourism stopped.

Its not what could not be done. Its about what is not wanted to be done. doing it would ruin precious, long-held illusions. Many supersmart intelligence beasts would need to admit that they were wrong since decades. A mass extinction of narcissistic egos would follow. Or not - I mean shamelessness is a key ability of politicians.

Many things can be done to tell the Chinese leaders that their behavior is unacceptable - The question in such a case is...how will China interpret the step(s) this alliance may impose against China.

Because this is important.

YES we shall not sit tight and let China have what they want.
We must be prepared that China may see these step(you mentioned) as an act of war.

Markus

[Skybird]

Whether they go to war, is their decision - but we must anyway be absolutely willing and capable to fight a war and to retaliate in any way necessary. Both great force and a long breath are needed.

Else we can pack our things and leave the stage of world history immediately. Most of Europe has done exactly that, while the US, Britian, Taiwan, Japan dream of superiority of theirs that they once had, but probably no more have. One does not want to invest into keeping up to strength with China. China knows this, and thats why they keep on pushing. As I see it, the anti-China alliances in the region that are possible to think of, are impotent and are word monsters only. They lack the needed military muscle. China creates military facts on the ground/ocean. They become superior in technology, and in numbers. Europe will keep on helping them for long time to come, i think. To keep illusions alive. They are so cozy, you see, so precious, so fragile. Lets not provoke China, it might come at a price for Western companies selling the West out in China. :doh:

[mapuc]

Here's a science article.

According to reports, China wishes to build a high-speed, 13,000-kilometer (8,078-mile) train that travels from mainland China, up through Siberia in Eastern Russia, under the sea through the Bering Strait into Alaska, across the rocky peaks of Canada’s Yukon and British Columbia, and into the USA. Once constructed, they have could further extend their international bullet train into every corner of the US.

https://www.iflscience.com/technology/china-wants-to-build-an-8000mile-underwater-train-line-to-the-usa/

Markus

[mapuc]

Back to the political and military discussion.

We, us here on this forum are ordinary deadly people with our standpoints. Some of us has told others our standpoints regarding this Chinese behavior towards Taiwan and countries with sea border in the South China Sea

But as mentioned we are deadly without influence on foreign politics in our country, EU or UN. Yes we have one vote.

Right now there's a type of pre-trial running here in Denmark it's called The Tibet Commission their task is to:

"Terms of reference for a commission of inquiry to carry out a supplementary inquiry into the case of police intervention in connection with demonstrations in connection with Chinese state visits, etc. and to examine the handling of certain other official Chinese visits."

Background.
A group of demonstrate was standing with the Tibet flag when they suddenly was attacked by the police who tried to tear their flag away from them.
(it looks more and more like good old days political scandal)

I'm therefore convince that our politicians have a Janus face-one in public telling you and me that they will not accept this Chinese behavior and unofficially they are weak towards China.

Markus

[Skybird]

We, us here on this forum are ordinary deadly people with our standpoints.

:D
Mortal. :O: The word you meant to use probably was "mortal", not "deadly". :03: :D :salute:

[mapuc]

:D
Mortal. :O: The word you meant to use probably was "mortal", not "deadly". :03: :D :salute:

I stand corrected :oops:

Markus

[Skybird]

I may be member of the secret but not so secret squirrel society, but that does not qualify me for a description of a hidden Subsim killer elite. :up: :)

[mapuc]

I may be member of the secret but not so secret squirrel society, but that does not qualify me for a description of a hidden Subsim killer elite. :up: :)

Beside I made a gramma error.

What do you say about the other things I wrote.

I'll say just wait China will get what they want without one mortal shot is fired or sanctions has been imposed on China.

Markus

[Catfish]

It is going downhill fast, for Hong Kong :nope:

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/exclusive-adviser-jailed-hk-tycoon-jimmy-lai-says-apple-daily-shut-within-days-2021-06-21/

[Skybird]

What happened inHK to "change by trade"? Obviously we still do not trade enough, we need to trade more! :yeah:

[Catfish]

Now let's pretend we are able to change something.. maybe a trade investment with North Korea would be in order :03:

[Skybird]

The units in which political wisdom gets measured, seem to be Euros, Dollars and Yen.

[Jimbuna]

It is going downhill fast, for Hong Kong :nope:

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/exclusive-adviser-jailed-hk-tycoon-jimmy-lai-says-apple-daily-shut-within-days-2021-06-21/

Visited there for work purposes on a few occasions and promised the wife I would take her there one day but doesn't look like that will ever happen now.

[August]

Visited there for work purposes on a few occasions and promised the wife I would take her there one day but doesn't look like that will ever happen now.


I wouldn't if I were you. Every westerner in China is a potential hostage if they decide to up the ante.

[Jimbuna]

I wouldn't if I were you. Every westerner in China is a potential hostage if they decide to up the ante.

Agreed and it's the same in Iran (not to mention a growing list of countries) where I've also worked.

[Skybird]

Travellers to places like China, Hong Kong, Russia, Belarus, Turkey, Iran, etc, should sign legally binding mandatory declarations by which their governments are freed from every responsibility to embark on political and other rescue measures in case they are being taken by these regimes as hostage. Also, all travelling routes shoul be reserearched and seriously checked.

If people want to take risks, let them, its their free right. But they should face the risk and consequences all by themselves, not having the state needing to rescue them from their egoism or stupidity.

Too many people are tool good-hearted and cannot imagine how grim and unfair the world can be.

I did some stupid travelling things myself back in the years, too. Things I now shake my head over. Heck, have we been naive on occaisons, having just been lucky where we seriously thought we were more clever than "them". Some places at no cost I would go back to. Turkey. Iran.

[MGR1]

Assuming the Chinese care, of course. One of my work colleagues taught English in Western China for a few years (married a local girl and had a kid, they're both in the UK now) and he has said that the average Chinese doesn't give a toss about foreign opinion.

Not unlike Japan, the average citizen of China is very uninterested, bordering on insular, in their attitudes to what goes on outside their country. They don't like anyone "sticking their noses" into what they regard as China's internal affairs.

I have seen a "the only people who should be commenting on China are the Chinese" type of mentality.

Mike.

[August]

Agreed and it's the same in Iran (not to mention a growing list of countries) where I've also worked.


Iran has been off the vacation list for me since 1978, unless of course it was a "military vacation", of the type where i'd bring along a few hundred thousand Army buddies and enough party supplies to really have a bang of a time.

[mapuc]

Iran has been off the vacation list for me since 1978, unless of course it was a "military vacation", of the type where i'd bring along a few hundred thousand Army buddies and enough party supplies to really have a bang of a time.

An off topic comment to August comment

You comment made me remember my old Iranian friend which I learned to know in the end of the 80's.

We talked about the Iranian-USA relation.

Here is what he said and I remembered it clearly.

Come as an ordinary American turist and we will treat them as emperor-Come as officials and we will treat them decently according to law of diplomacy but it will be with hate in our hearts.

End of an off topic....

Markus

[Moonlight]

I met a couple of Iranians a long time ago who had migrated to England and their take on it was "It's not people who create wars but governments", so theirs your answer, remove the chest thumping governments whoever they are.

[Skybird]

Assuming the Chinese care, of course. One of my work colleagues taught English in Western China for a few years (married a local girl and had a kid, they're both in the UK now) and he has said that the average Chinese doesn't give a toss about foreign opinion.

Not unlike Japan, the average citizen of China is very uninterested, bordering on insular, in their attitudes to what goes on outside their country. They don't like anyone "sticking their noses" into what they regard as China's internal affairs.

The average Chinese citizen is not what the world and us foreigners must be concerned of. Its their state, their intel service and their highly sophisticated abilities of automatted internet surveillance - and their growing aggressiveness against anythign and everybody voicing opinions directed against the party's regime. Not just Chinese and Taiwanese and Hong Kongers, but all foreigners worldwide.

Turkey does the same, persecuting critics of its regime in foreign nations as well. Those of Turkish decendance - and sometimes even foreigners without a single gene of Turkishness in them.

I miss the cold war, when an agent was needed to sit at a telephone and overhear telephone conversations. Today its all automatted, AI, high speed systemic reaction, automatted file creation, automatted sorting. Human signal overload is no longer an argument against omnipresent intel surveillance.

Its stupid to expose yourself to the risk of entering such regime's reach if you became critical of them in electronic media at any time.

Or do you think what Snowden revealed about the US' abilities already one and a half decade ago meanwhile is not being reached by the Chinese as well - if not surpassed...?

[3catcircus]

I met a couple of Iranians a long time ago who had migrated to England and their take on it was "It's not people who create wars but governments", so theirs your answer, remove the chest thumping governments whoever they are.

Yes, but governments are made up of people... No different than corporations who hide behind corporate personhood - both types of institutions need to have the *people* running them who make awful decisions be held accountable for those decisions far more often and with much harsher punishment.

[Skybird]

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17416/china-war-on-india



China's border actions against India have been described as a "salami tactic". China seems to be seeking to dominate territory through incremental operations too small to attract international attention and not large enough to spark an actual war with India -- but sufficient to accumulate real results over time in the form of gained territory. It is similar to the tactic China has been using in the South China Sea.

[Catfish]

"HK leader says 'ideologies' pose security risk, teenagers need to be monitored"
(Like in the west, when the young have new ideas (or left ones like justice and equality - gasp!) subdue them! :O: )

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hk-leader-says-ideologies-pose-security-risk-teenagers-need-be-monitored-2021-07-06/

I wonder when or if this kind of government in China will end. There is of course decade-long ideological party indoctrination, and Xi Ji Ping's "party" will be especially "careful" with the young to prevent uprising; but i take it that at some point oppression and surveillance will reach a point that anger and pressure cannot be controlled anymore.

On the other hand, a lot of chinese studying here see no problem with their government in China, one might say "they" only let out the most "adjusted" ones to study abroad, and then there is the fear to be called out by fellow chinese students, but it really looks as if this kind of indoctrination works, unfortunately. A lot see this kind of dictatorship as preferrable, and "superior".

[Rockstar]

https://youtu.be/py7ew8zeIVE

[Skybird]

Latvia is the first European country and the first western country having the guts to officially open a Taiwanese embassy in its country, and under the name of "Taiwan".

This puts big countries like Germany to shame.

Taiwan has significantly contributed to the fight and the scientific research on Covid-19. They deserve formal recognition around which Western states and the UN try to weasel aroudn since so long. Appeasement and money grabbing still is put above the right for sovereignty of people. Recently, the weasling delayed deliveries of vaccines to Taiwan for months.

I would wish the US would do with Taiwan what they did in Israel: open formal diplomatic representations like they moved their embassy to Jerusalem (or has bidne reversed that? I honestly don't know, but could imagine it). China is the enemy here, not Taiwan. We must learn to play hard with chian anyway - they will not leave us another chance, but will push the whole world against the wall. Flowery language will not change that.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/03/china/coast-guard-law-mic-intl-hnk/index.html

To me it looks as if China not only takes war into account, but actively wants it. They throw out a net of tripwires that make it more and more impossible to avoid them. Maybe they already made the active decision in favour for war and just maneuver a bit more in a bid for history afterwards not calling them out as the ones who have started it - or in a bid to rally their people around their war plan.

But when you provoke it, then you nevertheless have started it.

[Rockstar]

Beijing wants foreign vessels to give notice before entering "Chinese territorial waters," providing maritime authorities with detailed information -- including the ship's name, call sign, current position, next port of call and estimated time of arrival.

Cuba wanted the U.S. to do the same when we transited the OBC. We never did then either. lol

I remember one night we wandered into Cuban territorial waters. Then right at sunrise we got chased out by an OSA-II missile boat. Just as soon as we crossed back over into international waters two heavily armed helicopters came out of nowhere. We were wondering where the heck they came from. Thankfully they were ours and that missile boat immediately turned around. I got pictures of that OSA-II somewhere I should try and dig’em up.

[mapuc]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/03/china/coast-guard-law-mic-intl-hnk/index.html

To me it looks as if China not only takes war into account, but actively wants it. They throw out a net of tripwires that make it more and more impossible to avoid them. Maybe they already made the active decision in favour for war and just maneuver a bit more in a bid for history afterwards not calling them out as the ones who have started it - or in a bid to rally their people around their war plan.

But when you provoke it, then you nevertheless have started it.

I read the article and are astonish that China demands these thing in areas where they has not right to claim these thing.

Markus

[Skybird]

China runs a pirate fleet that it calls its coast guard, and it consists of hundreds of cutters and boats. This armada haunts fishermen and harasses them all across the South China Sea and even within 12nm territorial waters of other nations.

Its bullying of its utmost possible maximum. It ruins non-Chinese fishermen all across the place. China locks them out of even their nation'S territorial waters. And nobody dares to confront them over it. As I said: hundreds of cutters and coast guard boats. Hundreds. They are literally EVERYWHERE. They are armed and they use force against unarmed civil fisherboats, if need be. Even inside other nations' territorial 12nm coast waters, along islands, nation's mainland coast, and atolls.

The US navy in no way is able to deal with this. And so it even does not try. It cannot cope with the sheer numbers.

Overwhelming numbers have their own charms.

[mapuc]

China runs a pirate fleet that it calls its coast guard, and it consists of hundreds of cutters and boats. This armada haunts fishermen and harasses them all across the South China Sea and even within 12nm territorial waters of other nations.

Its bullying of its utmost possible maximum. It ruins non-Chinese fishermen all across the place. China locks them out of even their nation'S territorial waters. And nobody dares to confront them over it. As I said: hundreds of cutters and coast guard boats. Hundreds. They are literally EVERYWHERE. They are armed and they use force against unarmed civil fisherboats, if need be. Even inside other nations' territorial 12nm coast waters, along islands, nation's mainland coast, and atolls.

The US navy in no way is able to deal with this. And so it even does not try. It cannot cope with the sheer numbers.

Overwhelming numbers have their own charms.

As you said-They are asking for it- A war which is unavoidable if China continues this behaviour in the South China Sea.

Markus

[Buddahaid]

I don't think China wants a war but they will push the limits just like achild pushes the limits. The US still operates on the idea that it has to have a strong enough military to defeat it's two largest rivals.

Anyway what I wanted to post was this assesment of the PLA aircraft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQedM3qBXgc

[Skybird]

Are China's bullied neighbours stronger than we think? The author claims so.



https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/18/china-india-japan-quad-biden-indo-pacific-military-geopolitics/

[Skybird]

^Ah, paywall alarm, sorry, I did not immediately realise that. Use this Google-translation from the German translation instead:


All over the Indo-Pacific countries are building up their defenses. It is in response to China's massive expansion policy.

In the Indo-Pacific, the Chinese People's Liberation Army is surrounded by emerging competitors.
The countries of the Indo-Pacific region are able to protect themselves against Chinese aggression.
In response to China's policy of expansion, Japan, India and South Korea, among others, raised their attention.
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by Foreign Policy magazine on March 18, 2021.

Beijing - For the past 20 years, China has got its way in almost every dispute with neighboring countries. With its advance in the Himalayas, Southeast Asia, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea, China has become the main threat in a wide arcuate area of ​​the Indo-Pacific. Beijing's defense spending is now more than six times what it was at the beginning of the millennium, according to independent estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI). Over the past twenty years, China has climbed from sixth place in the world to second in total defense spending - a spectacular increase.

Of course, this worries China's neighboring countries. And it is just as natural that these neighbors will now take action in response.
Protective wall against China's expansionism: People's Liberation Army in the Indo-Pacific surrounded by competitors

If China's closest neighbors are the potential partners that US President Joe Biden is eager to work with, they are hardly countries that need US encouragement to step up its vigilance towards China. A look across China's borders shows that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is facing established and emerging military competitors on all sides. Even assuming rapprochement between Russia and China - a prospect that is always more imminent than actually happening - China faces challenges throughout the Indo-Pacific. The countries that stretch from India in the southwest to Japan in the northeast would form an effective barrier against Chinese expansionism even without the express encouragement and support of the US.

The arched Indo-Pacific region is strongest at the ends and weakest at the center. Japan's Self-Defense Forces are highly regarded for technology and operational readiness. As a countermeasure to China's aircraft carrier construction program, Japan is converting two existing helicopter carriers into fixed-wing carriers. The Japanese aircraft carriers will be much smaller than the Chinese ones, but the fifth-generation F-35 stealth aircraft launched by Japanese aircraft carriers will have a significantly greater impact. In comparison, the PLA Navy's Shenyang J-15 is a less advanced fourth generation fighter aircraft that is facing serious technical problems.

Japan definitely has the resources and the technological know-how to cater for itself. At the other end of the Indo-Pacific region, India is often perceived as a relative weakling compared to China. Such assessments, however, are long out of date, if they were ever true. In 1962, China had conquered large parts of the Indian mountain area in a lightning-fast five-week war. But this victory had been the result of a surprise attack in peacetime against an unsuspecting friendly country. Since then, India has taken the old adage to heart: “Put me in there: Shame on you! Put me in twice: Shame on me! "
People's Republic of China: India has the upper hand on the Himalayan border - warfare at great heights

Despite China's massive military modernization, India is now likely to have the upper hand on the Himalayan border. For one thing, China's 1962 advances were deeply resented in India, but they moved the front line closer to India's supply bases and further away from China. What is less noticeable is that China's infrastructure improvements are juxtaposed with the mountain tunnels and all-weather roads built by India's Border Roads Organization (BRO). In a strategic area where logistics is everything, the tunnel construction of the BRO has enormously improved the ability of the Indian army to transport heavy equipment from lower-lying bases to the Indo-Chinese "Line of Actual Control" (LAC). Together with the extensive experience of fighting on glaciers and the harshness of the Indian Special Frontier Force (for which many Tibetans in exile were recruited), India has a compelling concept for warfare at great heights.

In addition, the Indian air forces have a major technical advantage over China's PLA: India's advanced air force bases are at an altitude of 3000 meters, which is very high, but not nearly as high as those of China. Unlike India, however, China has no low-altitude bases in the region. That makes a huge difference, as China's planes have to drop up to half of their missiles and fuel to take off in the very thin air of the Tibetan highlands. Coupled with the acquisition of top-of-the-line French Rafale fighter jets, the potential modernization of Russia's Sukhoi SU 30 squadrons, and the imminent delivery of advanced Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, the Indian Air Force could soon have absolute air superiority across the LAC. The multi-purpose fighter Tejas, developed by India itself, is just the icing on the cake.

Further east, China's 2,100-kilometer-long border with Myanmar is so unsafe that China - perhaps inspired by former US President Donald Trump - is building a 3-meter-high wall to seal it off. The military takeover in Myanmar, widely perceived in the West as useful to China, was indeed a setback: China was particularly close to Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy and now sees its position in the country through both the military and the military also threatened by the street protests. China has long been accused of supporting separatist rebels in Myanmar; the overthrow of the civilian government led by Suu Kyi by the military could have been an anti-China as well as an anti-democracy coup.

Vietnam, which like India was once the victim of a Chinese surprise attack, has had a bad relationship with its communist big brother since China's invasion in 1979. Vietnam's defense budget is relatively small today, but the country has focused its investments on coastal defense. Based on China's "Anti-Access / Area Denial" (A2 / AD) strategy of the early 2000s, the country invested heavily in anti-ship missiles and, according to ongoing rumors, is about to acquire the joint Russian-Indian BrahMos, a supersonic Ramjet cruise missile that is said to be the fastest weapon of its kind in the world. So as China moves from A2 / AD to power projection strategies in the South China Sea, Vietnam is developing its own A2 / AD capabilities to deprive the PLA Navy of the ability to operate in the area.
Indo-Pacific: Philippines squinting at the USA - Taiwan is another chess spot for China

The islands are the weak points in the Indo-Pacific. The Philippines, which under their capricious President Rodrigo Duterte tossed about a possible Chinese alliance, are a wild card. But after four years of sharp anti-US rhetoric, Duterte is facing mounting backlash from his largely pro-American public. The country's armed forces are also believed to favor close ties with the United States. Like its Vietnamese counterpart, the Philippine Navy is interested in purchasing BrahMos anti-ship missiles as part of a deal that is much closer to being concluded than the one between India and Vietnam. In another A2 / AD development, the only realistic target for these missiles would be the PLA's Chinese Navy operating in the South China Sea.

Taiwan is another weak point. The problem here is not a lack of determination - the repression in Hong Kong only strengthened Taiwanese opinion against China - but an unwillingness to make the necessary sacrifices. Taiwan's defense spending is just 1.7 percent of its gross domestic product - a very small proportion for a country that is constantly faced with the threat of invasion by its much larger neighbor. Although Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has planned a significant increase in the defense budget in 2021, the budget is still described as inadequate by US officials. Taiwan has announced the purchase of 66 reliable F-16 fighter jets but is in dire need of Harpoon anti-ship missiles and Patriot anti-aircraft missiles. The procurement programs for both are affected by budget constraints.

Finally, while the threat posed by the north is primarily at issue, South Korea has announced its own programs for aircraft carriers and jet fighters. Some commentators have labeled them national vanity projects. But they might as well be described as efforts to propel South Korea's already formidable defense industry into the information age. As aircraft fuselages and airframes become commodities, South Korea's most important domestic value-add for its fighter aircraft will be avionics such as aeronautics. B. be radar and guidance systems. The country's planned aircraft carrier will be equipped with US F-35 jets and South Korean electronic warfare.
China in the Indo-Pacific: People's Liberation Army confronts India, South Korea and Japan in the air

If you put it all together, there are three aircraft carriers of the PLA Navy - one of which is an old Soviet fuselage, the second an improved copy of the first, and the third an experimental Chinese design - two Japanese and one South Korean aircraft carriers equipped with F-35s , as well as two Indian aircraft carriers opposite. And that before the US Navy “supercarriers” stationed in Japan are included. In the air, China faces the consistently modern air forces of India, South Korea and Japan, and faces growing A2 / AD threats from countries in between. Further afield, the Australian armed forces could potentially play a supportive role if Canberra has the political will to do so. Overall, there are still weak spots in the Indo-Pacific region, but the prognosis for China does not look good.

The overarching lesson from all of this is that the US doesn't need to keep the Indo-Pacific safe to keep the region “free and open” or even “resilient and inclusive”, as the four Quad Group leaders said at their summit last week decided. All Washington has to do is create a security framework into which other countries can contribute their own efforts. You could do this through the quad mechanism. Yet that would require the Quad group to focus on maritime security rather than climate change and the coronavirus. But even without a defense-oriented quad group, the countries of the Indo-Pacific region are quite capable of protecting themselves against Chinese aggression. The United States may provide tools, technology, and training, but China's neighbors can and should take the lead in keeping their own neighborhood safe.

by Salvatore Babones

Salvatore Babones is a Foreign Policy Columnist and Associate Researcher at the Center for Independent Studies, Sydney.Twitter: @sbabones

This article was first published in English on March 18, 2021 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” - as part of a cooperation, the translation is now also available to Merkur.de readers.

[Jimbuna]

Are China's bullied neighbours stronger than we think?





Only if they all united together would they have a chance and I can't see that happening.

[August]

Only if they all united together would they have a chance and I can't see that happening.


I don't think they all would need to be united but certainly the bigger the block the more formidable especially if we back them up.

[Jimbuna]

I don't think they all would need to be united but certainly the bigger the block the more formidable especially if we back them up.

I reckon they'd wait for the US response before going into action for fear of being picked off one by one.

[mapuc]

China is testing Taiwans ability to defend itself.

The first deployment of PLAAF aircraft included “12 Shenyang J-16 fighter jets, two Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine warfare (Y-8 ASW) planes, two Xian H-6 bombers, one Shaanxi Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft (Y-8 EW), and two Shenyang J-11 fighter jets,” according to the MND.

About three hours later at 7:15 pm local time, the MND announced that five additional Chinese PLAAF aircraft penetrated the same southwest corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ.

https://swiftheadline.com/taiwan-deploys-anti-aircraft-missiles-against-chinese-pla-incursion/

Edit
It was through FB and Breitbart(I don't trust this news agency) So I made a search and found another online news reporting it.
Almost every comment on fb says Biden is weak and China can take Taiwan if they want to without fearing any response from USA
End edit

Markus

[ET2SN]

Maybe it helps to understand that Taiwan's Air Force and the PLAAF have been duking it out since the late 1940's. :yep:

In the 1950's and 60's, Taiwan's AF was VERY aggressive when it came to flying over mainland China and exchanging gunfire with the PLAAF. They mostly flew (then current) USAF fighters and recon aircraft.

Things have cooled down since, but both sides continue to push the other side's buttons. If it helps, both sides file flight plans with the other prior to taking off. :03:

[mapuc]

Maybe it helps to understand that Taiwan's Air Force and the PLAAF have been duking it out since the late 1940's. :yep:

In the 1950's and 60's, Taiwan's AF was VERY aggressive when it came to flying over mainland China and exchanging gunfire with the PLAAF. They mostly flew (then current) USAF fighters and recon aircraft.

Things have cooled down since, but both sides continue to push the other side's buttons. If it helps, both sides file flight plans with the other prior to taking off. :03:

Doesn't surprise me at all. Remember only the last couple of years mocking between these two countries. As you mentioned both side does it, so I guess Taiwan air force is doing the same.

Markus

[August]

I reckon they'd wait for the US response before going into action for fear of being picked off one by one.


Definitely they'd want to make sure we were lined up in their corner before trying something, but the way they are arming I figure they're already worried about being picked off one by one.



I'm thinking what they need is a regional anti-ChiCom mutual defense pact. Attack one gets a response from all. Something like the old SEATO with way more local member member nations.

[mapuc]

If, God forbid, China attack one of the countries around the Chinese sea
The only thing that would come from the other countries in that area and the rest of the world is Harsh words nothing more.

I'm convinced that none of the countries are interested in a conflict with China.

Markus

[Skybird]

No player in the region is strong enough to go all alone against china.

Together however - thats a different ballgame.

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


In addition, there are other elements that are indispensable for a democratically constituted state according to the Western view: the principle of the separation of powers and freedom of expression. The separation of powers leads to insufficient executive power and therefore to inefficient governance, according to the Chinese view. In turn, a lack of control over the public and social networks promotes the fragmentation of society into incompatible subsets. With the result that this is no longer to be committed to a uniform state idea.

The majority of Chinese also consider the subordination of the individual to the interests of the state with a correspondingly different design of human rights to be appropriate. This majority also follows President Xi in his “new development concept”, the basis of which is the Marxism-Leninism developed further by the “Xi Thoughts”.

Here, two thrusts are particularly important: to create “general” prosperity and continue to pursue an economic policy that gives the state back the dominant role over markets and the private sector in all matters. Drastic measures, for example against the Internet companies and their billionaire owners, who are forced to make "donations" in the billions, are intended to tackle the abruptly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which is even larger than that of the USA.

Working time restrictions in the world of information technology also serve this purpose. China's new industrial policy is no less radical with its move towards more state-controlled economy and control. This is at the expense of the market forces that these gigantic internet companies had created and unleashed. In the opinion of the party, these internet corporations with their e-commerce offers, unregulated financial services, social media portals, gaming and delivery services do not create any real value. What is added to deliveries are exploitative jobs.


Planned economy 4.0

In China it is now the companies of artificial intelligence, the semiconductor industry, and quantum computers that are receiving huge funds on behalf of the state. Added to this is the “real” added value. According to the planned economy 1.0, which has also failed according to the official reading, the belief now reigns that thanks to AI, big data and scientific planning, by means of a kind of planned economy 4.0, excesses such as those inherent in the market economy can be avoided. President Xi is trying to get through to a gigantic social experiment, as the left in the West has always dreamed of.

Xi Jinping currently knows a majority of the Chinese behind him. That this is the case is the result of a success story based on many facts, of influences from Chinese tradition and culture as well as a very selective historical narrative of the party leadership. In it, the state's interpretation of the past and the present is very closely controlled with control over published opinion. Whether the elites follow the party to the same extent as the majority of the population, however, is difficult to assess in view of the prescribed conformity.


That means: The West is dealing with an authoritarian state whose leadership is based on a huge public majority.


https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/uli-sigg-unser-dilemma-mit-der-volksrepublik-china-ld.1647453

[mapuc]

Both side has done this many times before as some of you wrote in an answer to one of my comment in this thread.

Have it ever been so massive like it has the last two days(Fri-Sat.)
Where China had sent 77 fighter jet into Taiwans defence zone ?

Taiwan says a total of 39 Chinese military jets flew into its air defence zone on Saturday - the largest incursion by Beijing to date.

The defence ministry said the planes entered the area in two waves, during the day and during the evening.

It comes after 38 planes, including nuclear-capable bombers, entered the zone on Friday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58771369

Markus

[Skybird]

The Chinese provoke reactions yb Taiwan to track air force reaction times and -patterns, SAM radar signatures.

Its a preparation for the coming war: studying how the enemy behaves. That Bejing expresses displeasure this way over something Taipeh has done, as media report, is true, but just one half of the truth.

They also lull Taiwanese public this way. "They did this so many times, and never anything happened", thinks the public and leadership. Until the day when China suddenly means it deadly serious, and does not come to just play, but to bite.

Emperor Xin let the world know in - for Chinese standards - totla frnakness and openness that China wants Taiwan and will even take it by military force if needed, in the forseeable future. They do not hide their intention and resolve. Its not so much about getting hands on Taiwan'ÄS factories, but to deonstrate that Chi8na gets what it wants and that those people it claisnm as its property will be subjugated. To let Taiwan endlessly dance around on Bejing's nose means to lose face by allwoijug n once own claims for power and control beign ifnored without consequences. For the same reason I am convinced that sooner or later there will be a war in the South Chinese Sea as well - if the US indeed is willing to fight that one, or the one over Taiwan. I am still not convinced.

Maybe its high time that the rest of the world finally starts to take the Chinese threats serious... That is especially true for Europe and here especially Germany (Merkel failed terribly on China, she failed on so many things, but especially dramatic on China: stupid little GDR brat) - but the US and Taipeh alike.

[mapuc]

The Chinese provoke reactions yb Taiwan to track air force reaction times and -patterns, SAM radar signatures.

Its a preparation for the coming war: studying how the enemy behaves. That Bejing expresses displeasure this way over something Taipeh has done, as media report, is true, but just one half of the truth.

They also lull Taiwanese public this way. "They did this so many times, and never anything happened", thinks the public and leadership. Until the day when China suddenly means it deadly serious, and does not come to just play, but to bite.

Emperor Xin let the world know in - for Chinese standards - totla frnakness and openness that China wants Taiwan and will even take it by military force if needed, in the forseeable future. They do not hide their intention and resolve. Its not so much about getting hands on Taiwan'ÄS factories, but to deonstrate that Chi8na gets what it wants and that those people it claisnm as its property will be subjugated. To let Taiwan endlessly dance around on Bejing's nose means to lose face by allwoijug n once own claims for power and control beign ifnored without consequences. For the same reason I am convinced that sooner or later there will be a war in the South Chinese Sea as well - if the US indeed is willing to fight that one, or the one over Taiwan. I am still not convinced.

Maybe its high time that the rest of the world finally starts to take the Chinese threats serious... That is especially true for Europe and here especially Germany (Merkel failed terribly on China, she failed on so many things, but especially dramatic on China: stupid little GDR brat) - but the US and Taipeh alike.

Been thinking the same-China is testing Taiwans military ability and reactions.

The BBC link was in a Danish article about the same subject.

The response among the Danes showed that a majority want NATO and or EU to take part in such a conflict-They want us to stand side by side with Taiwan.

If we do nothing China will know we are not interested in a conflict with China and they may take another country in the South China Sea

Markus

[Skybird]

Indeed. But what is NATO/Europe capable to do in that region - its on the other side of the planet, almost.



Its the US and its allies in the region that need to fight this. The Brits cannot even crew, equip with planes and protect their carrier all by themselves and need heavy assistance. That carrier is more multinational than British currently, an extension of the US navy, so to speak.


Maybe that lonely, poutdate dgemrna firgate sailing misopriented around Austrlian waters ucrrently will make the big difference. It sends a very powerful message. They did not say which one, but insist it is powerful.

[mapuc]

Indeed. But what is NATO/Europe capable to do in that region - its on the other side of the planet, almost.



Its the US and its allies in the region that need to fight this. The Brits cannot even crew, equip with planes and protect their carrier all by themselves and need heavy assistance. That carrier is more multinational than British currently, an extension of the US navy, so to speak.


Maybe that lonely, poutdate dgemrna firgate sailing misopriented around Austrlian waters ucrrently will make the big difference. It sends a very powerful message. They did not say which one, but insist it is powerful.

Many of these Danish comment to the Danish article said Denmark should send troops and military stuff to Taiwan.

Some disagreed to this, which I also do. We have nothing to do there.
It is, as you wrote,
"the US and its allies in the region that need to fight this."

Markus

[Skybird]

The last hope for peace and stability in the far east Pacific: the German frigate "Bayern" zig-zagging around signs and symbols, confusing Americans and Chinese alike.



https://www.morgengagazin.de/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Fregatte.jpg

[Skybird]

ooops, wrong picture, sorry. Jetzt aber, mit Macht:


https://www.zdf.de/assets/fregatte-bayern-100~1280x720?cb=1627893728704


Wowh, thats what i call a wake! Chinese in shivers!

[mapuc]

Your comment about this German frigate "Bayern" made me laugh, it also made me remember this movie with Peter Sellers "The Mouse That Roared"

You could also say that the German don't lack self confidence

Markus

[mapuc]

So far we have been discussing this from the Taiwan and USA point-of-view.

We haven't exactly seen it from the Chinese point-of-view.

Why they demand this huge part of the South China Sea.

Taiwan is a part of China and have been so for century-So here I have a tiny understanding why they want the island back.

I hope they find an agreement like UK and China did with Hong Kong.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Why would Taiwan accept any agreement with China?

The Chinese never stuck to the agreement they made with the UK regarding Hong Kong.

[mapuc]

Why would Taiwan accept any agreement with China?

The Chinese never stuck to the agreement they made with the UK regarding Hong Kong.

I don't think so either. I was purely taking a view from the Chinese side of the problem.

If China does make their threat real-Taiwan has nothing that could prevent China from taking their island. USA and it's allied is the only who could throw China back from Taiwan.

The question is, how strong is Biden and his staff when it comes to USA foreign policy ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Not strong enough I suspect.

[Skybird]

China is not Iraq. Will the US accept the very severe and heavy losses a war with China would cost them to defend Taiwan or the Southchinese Sea?

I have extremely serious doubts. Since many years.

[mapuc]

China is not Iraq. Will the US accept the very severe and heavy losses a war with China would cost them to defend Taiwan or the Southchinese Sea?

I have extremely serious doubts. Since many years.

No doubt the American people would demand an American withdrawal if the body count goes skyhigh.

Markus

[Skybird]

It seems somebody has "mistaken" national air space for ADIZ's.


https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-taiwan-military-incursions-test-the-limits-of-airspace/a-59398039

[mapuc]

Does China recognize Taiwans ADIZ ?

The way they are acting it doesn't look like they do.

Markus

[Skybird]

Probably not, the Taiwanese ADIZ covers even parts of the Chinese mainland.



A bit crazy an arrangement they have there.

[mapuc]

Probably not, the Taiwanese ADIZ covers even parts of the Chinese mainland.



A bit crazy an arrangement they have there.

In a way I understand why Taiwan's ADIZ cover a part of China.
Taiwan need to identify any plane that enter this area. before entering the Taiwan strait.

I've seen the pattern where these Chinese aircraft have been flying and it is close to Taiwans southern area.

Markus

[ET2SN]

I've seen the pattern where these Chinese aircraft have been flying and it is close to Taiwans southern area.

Markus


You should understand why Hainan is so important to China.
The southeast corner of the island is the home of the PRC's SSBN fleet.
Why Hainan? Anyone who's played sub sims in the Yellow Sea can answer that. :yep:

Why SSBN's? That's a more tricky question. The PRC really didn't need them at the time and wound up in a "tail wagging the dog" situation. :03:
Basing the SSBN fleet on Hainan meant having closer access to deep water and the Pacific as a whole. It also placed their fleet a LOT closer to foreign Navies which becomes a big problem if your designers and shipyards happily ignore building quiet subs. :doh:

[mapuc]

Could be wrong.

The only reason to why China hasn't attacked Taiwan already, is because China does not know how USA will act or if they would act at all.

This uncertainty is holding China back.

On the other hand, these test of the Taiwan defence China makes on daily basis, is also a signal to USA/testing USA response and so far it has only been harsh words from Washington D.C

Markus

[Skybird]

Its attrition what they are doing, giving the Taiwanese forces no time to get rest, keeping them in constant alertness, while Chinese fighters and pilots can get psychological rest their Taiwanese counterparts cannot. In the end, China has time on its side, the economic and military balances are shifting in its favour, both work against the US and against Taiwan.

They keep the pressure up.

Lets see how the unfolding economic crash affects their calculations.

[August]

You should understand why Hainan is so important to China.
The southeast corner of the island is the home of the PRC's SSBN fleet.
Why Hainan? Anyone who's played sub sims in the Yellow Sea can answer that. :yep:

Why SSBN's? That's a more tricky question. The PRC really didn't need them at the time and wound up in a "tail wagging the dog" situation. :03:
Basing the SSBN fleet on Hainan meant having closer access to deep water and the Pacific as a whole. It also placed their fleet a LOT closer to foreign Navies which becomes a big problem if your designers and shipyards happily ignore building quiet subs. :doh:

Hainan is not the same island as Taiwan and the Philippines are actually closer.

[Rockstar]

Big trouble in little China? Might be why there’s all the Sabre rattling going on as it’s an excellent distraction from internal economic and political problems.

https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/the-hidden-enemies-in-xis-midst/

On the eve of China’s October 1 National Day celebrations, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) expelled former vice minister for public security Sun Lijun – not for corruption but serious political crimes almost tantamount to something like an attempted coup.

Specifically, he was accused of “serious violations of discipline” and building cliques and cabals to take over a key government department.

Sun, apprehended about a year ago, is guilty of “overweening political ambitions” and “arbitrarily disagreeing with central policy guidelines,” the mighty party disciplinary committee CCDI wrote in a statement on its official website.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/


China can take Taiwan already now, just that the military price to pay would be high. By 2025, so says Taiwan, the price will be considerably lower.

[Jimbuna]

Tensions with China are at their worst in 40 years, Taiwan's defence minister has said, warning of the risk of an accidental strike between the two.

Chiu Kuo-cheng's comments came after China sent a "record number" of military jets into Taiwan's air defence zone for four consecutive days.

Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state. China, however, views Taiwan as a breakaway province.

It has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.

While Chinese jets have not been flown all the way to the island, Mr Chiu warned that there was a risk of a "misfire".

Taiwan's air defence zone, which it monitors for threats, extends over an area that covers the Taiwan Strait and a large swathe of the Chinese mainland. They consider jets crossing an unofficial line between China and Taiwan as an incursion.

Mr Chiu also warned China would be capable of mounting a full-scale invasion of the island by 2025.

He was speaking as a parliamentary committee in Taipei considered a multi-billion-dollar defence spending bill to build missiles and warships.

Acknowledging that China already has the capacity to invade, he said such a move would get easier in coming years, though he did not elaborate.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58812100

[Jimbuna]

China's President Xi Jinping has said that "reunification" with Taiwan "must be fulfilled", as heightened tensions over the island continue.

Mr Xi said unification should be achieved peacefully, but warned that the Chinese people had a "glorious tradition" of opposing separatism.

In response, Taiwan said its future lay in the hands of its people.

Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, while China views it as a breakaway province.

Beijing has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58854081

[Skybird]

For the reason of power of symbolism I believe the war will launch before the middle of this century. In 2049 China will have its 100th birthday jubilee, and until then I am quite sure they want the Taiwanese question solved once and forever.


I think it is absolutely realistic and possible that it will happen already in the next ten years.



Maybe Taiwan better gets nukes. Serious. It has run poprgrams for developing nuclear, chemcial and biological wepaons, but the US pressed it to give them up in the 80s. Libya did so, too, and paid the price. The Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, and paid the price. Iraq gave them up, and paid the price. No reason to be optimistic for Taiwan. I think they will not survive as a free nation into the second half of this century.

[Jimbuna]

Most probably correct :yep:

[mapuc]

There's an election this Sunday in Taiwan.

From what I know there's two side in Taiwan-China friendly faction and Taiwan friendly faction.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Taiwan will not bow to pressure from China and will defend its democratic way of life, President Tsai Ing-wen has said in a defiant speech amid heightened tensions over the island.

Her remarks on Taiwan's National Day came after China's President Xi Jinping vowed to "fulfil reunification".

China denounced Ms Tsai's speech, saying it "incited confrontation".

Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, while China views it as a breakaway province.

Beijing has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58860365

[Aktungbby]

The West won the Cold War without firing a shot, but the intensifying struggle with China may not end so well. The record number of Chinese military aircraft flying near Taiwan last week raised alarm bells— and questions.
For decades China’s leaders bided their time, knowing that a military confrontation with the U.S. would end badly. But during the past quarter-century, China steadily ramped up its investment in the People’s Liberation Army. Between 2010 and 2020, spending rose by 76%, and the PLA’s war-fighting ability has vastly improved. In recent years, the Pentagon has staged multiple war games testing U.S. ability to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The American team has lost nearly all of them.
This increase in China’s capabilities has coincided with shifts in outlook. Statements from President Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders characterize the U.S. as a declining power mired in division and dysfunction. They doubt America’s will to use force overseas, a mindset not discouraged by our disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan. Beijing believes that China is within reach of replacing the U.S. as the world’s dominant power.
In this context, a once-unthinkable event—a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan— has become possible, perhaps even likely. Senior U.S. naval officials have been especially blunt about this. “To us, it’s only a matter of time, not a matter of if,” Rear Adm. Michael Studeman, director of intelligence for the Indo-Pacific command, said earlier this year.
Not surprisingly, a multi-front debate has broken out about the future of U.S.-China relations. Optimists believe China has more to lose than to gain from a military conquest of Taiwan—and that Beijing’s leaders understand this. International trade, still their economic lifeblood, would be hurt,
and countries who have stayed on the sidelines would take America’s side.
Pessimists retort that Mr. Xi has infused a new sense of urgency into reunifying his country and that it won’t be easy to walk back the nationalism he has spread. Not unlike Hitler's one greater Germany concept...:hmmm:
For decades the U.S. has preserved “strategic ambiguity” about its response to a prospective Chinese attack on Taiwan. A public announcement that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defense would blow up the terms of the Shanghai Communiqué that began the process of normalizing the U.S.-China relationship in 1972 and of the Joint Communiqué re-establishing full diplomatic relations in 1979.
On the other hand, stating that America views this issue as an internal matter would encourage China’s leaders to treat Taiwan as a “breakaway province” and to reunify their country through any means necessary.
Many experts argue that the policy of strategic ambiguity has outlived its useful life and should be replaced with a hard guarantee to defend Taiwan from attack. Others reply that ending the policy would inflame nationalist sentiments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and encourage Beijing to escalate.
This is a tough call that rests on an assessment of Mr. Xi’s intentions. If he is considering military action in the belief that the U.S. would not come to Taiwan’s aid, an explicit statement of our commitment to Taiwan’s security could act as a deterrent. On the other hand, if Mr. Xi is bluffing by whipping up nationalist sentiment for domestic purposes, an explicit security guarantee could make him lose control of the sentiments he has roused.
The disquieting outcome of the Pentagon’s war games has sparked another debate: If the Beijing’s growing belligerence coincides with declining U.S. military power. U.S. lacks the military wherewithal to deter China from invading Taiwan, what should we do about it? If current trends continue, China’s navy will be more modern and significantly larger than America’s by 2030.
The Hudson Institute’s Seth Cropsey has characterized the U.S. Navy’s current “divest to invest” strategy as misguided: Reducing the fleet of older, larger vessels to build smaller, more numerous ones will leave us dangerously exposed in the middle of this decade, the moment when many analysts believe the danger to Taiwan will be at its peak.
Instead, Mr. Cropsey argues, we should retain most of the current surface fleet and supplement it with items we can build—or buy from allies— fast enough to make a difference, a strategy that would require an annual increase of about 30% in the Navy’s shipbuilding budget. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies can improve Taiwan’s defense capabilities, and Taiwan can do more to defend itself.
No sane person wants war between China and the U.S., but a combination of clashing ambitions, strategic miscalculations and mutual misperceptions could land us in one, particularly if America doesn’t take the necessary steps to persuade Mr. Xi that we are not what he believes us to be—a declining power lacking the means and the will to defend our friends. Bottom line: Osama bin Laden called the US a paper tiger and he was not incorrect; China, with it's economic crises, ie the Evergrand fiasco, housing price collapse, confiscation and imprisonment of Chinese entrepeneurs. et al; has raise its birthrate policy to 3 children instead of one...in a country with 1.4 billion of the world 8 billion population and expansionist Belt and Road to the Indian boarder, Hong Kong, Africa mineral wealth and the South China Sea is as much a paper dragon imho. America needs to nuclear weaponize the WWIII fuse which will be Taiwan; numbers preclude any other solution :hmmm: Mutual Assured Destruction is still in effect??!!

[Skybird]

Playing out MAD to the penultimate end - for a small island and its eocnomy in the distant pacific and offshore a big rival? No, no chance the US will do that. Why risking American cities and millions of US civilians - for Taiwan...? And why do you think is China massively increasing the number of land based ICBM silos? ICBMs are no weapons to be used against a brigade on the battlefield.

[mapuc]

Skybird is right-USA would rather give up Taiwan in a conflict with China than open Pandoras box.

USA and it's allied in the area will defend Taiwan with conventional weapons, but use of nukes-No in this I'm convince.

I fear it though-If China fail in taking Taiwan.

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Playing out MAD to the penultimate end - for a small island and its eocnomy in the distant pacific and offshore a big rival? No, no chance the US will do that. Why risking American cities and millions of US civilians - for Taiwan...? And why do you think is China massively increasing the number of land based ICBM silos? ICBMs are no weapons to be used against a brigade on the battlefield....and thereby lies the problem; it won't be a brigade as we learned in 1951 when China crossed the Yalu and pompous MacArthur got his butt kicked by SunTsu philosophy with little Russian "numbers have a cachet of their own' mentality. With the huge so called Sino fishing fleet as transport...were well behind in the numbers game. Moreover as with 1939 appeasement of your beloved Führer, the West's primary mistake was in not responding to China's outright uncontested takeover of Tibet in '59. Sparta pulled same routine in c. 600BC against neighboring Messinia...just for hoplite food, while the rest of Greece stood by. That, coupled with failures at nation-building the 10-year-war in 'Nam and the 20-year-war in Afghanistan puts 'Merica and its toadying NATO allies down three strikes. Remember Von C. "In all thing be strong; whenever possible increase fire power, in this case nukes; and never count on the enemy doing what your plan calls for them to do...in this case us not following the Sino-global Road & Belt domination plan...to find its Kaiser-like 'place in the sun'....:o:oops::x:dead: "In war everything is simple but sometimes the simple thing is difficult"; the 'paper tiger's has got to make the 'paper dragon' blink first. 400,000,000 'Mericans (weakened by Covid and bickering:yep:)cannot make 1,400,000,000 officially overbreeding Chinese do that with manpower alone. Toadying N.Korea's fatboy and his master, Mr.Xi, love to rattle the nuke sabre; the West, with 'Nam, Phillipines, India, Japan and Australia, all frogs croaking around, or very near the South China 'pond' must rattle mo'bettah....

Skybird is right-USA would rather give up Taiwan in a conflict with China than open Pandoras box.
USA and it's allied in the area will defend Taiwan with conventional weapons, but use of nukes-No in this I'm convince.
I fear it though-If China fail in taking Taiwan.

MarkusWe opened Pandora's box in 1945...and now the nuclear genii assails us with N.Korea, Pakistan, India and probably Iran. As my proctologist Dr. Pogo, says: "We have met the enema...and it was us." Moreover, the head of Pakistan's nuclear weapons development who died this week, also sold the technolgy to god-knows-who else, and had to resign...God is laughing at us. Good thing I'm old; 'cause the spinning mudball is rapidly worsening!

[mapuc]

I meant a situation where the opponent retaliate with same weapon type. In -45 Japan had no nukes and could not retaliate.
So the box may have been open a little bit then.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Skybird is right-USA would rather give up Taiwan in a conflict with China than open Pandoras box.

USA and it's allied in the area will defend Taiwan with conventional weapons, but use of nukes-No in this I'm convince.

I fear it though-If China fail in taking Taiwan.

Markus

Going to war is easy all we need is another ChiCom virus to infect the world and I’d be willing to bet we and our Allies be happy to go to war over Taiwan.

Taiwan Relations Act

Public Law 96-8 96th Congress

An Act

To help maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific and to promote the foreign policy of the United States by authorizing the continuation of commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, and for other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SHORT TITLE

SECTION 1. This Act may be cited as the "Taiwan Relations Act".

FINDINGS AND DECLARATION OF POLICY

SEC. 2. (a) The President- having terminated governmental relations between the United States and the governing authorities on Taiwan recognized by the United States as the Republic of China prior to January 1, 1979, the Congress finds that the enactment of this Act is necessary--

(1) to help maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific; and (2) to promote the foreign policy of the United States by authorizing the continuation of commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan. (b) It is the policy of the United States-- (1) to preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, as well as the people on the China mainland and all other peoples of the Western Pacific area;

(2) to declare that peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States, and are matters of international concern;

(3) to make clear that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means;

(4) to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States;

(5) to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and

(6) to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan. (c) Nothing contained in this Act shall contravene the interest of the United States in human rights, especially with respect to the human rights of all the approximately eighteen million inhabitants of Taiwan. The preservation and enhancement of the human rights of all the people on Taiwan are hereby reaffirmed as objectives of the United States. IMPLEMENTATION OF UNITED STATES POLICY WITH REGARD TO TAIWAN

SEC. 3. (a) In furtherance of the policy set forth in section 2 of this Act, the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.

(b) The President and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such defense articles and services based solely upon their judgment of the needs of Taiwan, in accordance with procedures established by law. Such determination of Taiwan's defense needs shall include review by United States military authorities in connection with recommendations to the President and the Congress.

(c) The President is directed to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom. The President and the Congress shall determine, in accordance with constitutional processes, appropriate action by the United States in response to any such danger….

[mapuc]

Been reading paragraph b and c. and some question popped up.

§ b) "The President and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such defense articles and services based solely upon their judgment of the needs of Taiwan"

Lets play with the scenario President is Dem and congress is Rep. Would they agree ?

§ c) "The President is directed to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom."

Would they agree on how dangerous a Chinese attack on Taiwan is for the US interest in the area ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsESxLRxuNk

[Skybird]

Och, they just want to play... :yep: They are partners...! Partners dont play foul.:88)

[mapuc]

This short video clip had two purpose
Propaganda-showing Taiwan they have the means to invade them.
Threat-showing Taiwan better beware ´cause we are comming.

Unofficial- They did this to train on and off loading

Markus

[August]

An artificial reef packed with Chinese tanks would be a really cool scuba dive. Just sayin... :03:

[Jimbuna]

Britain warns China against dangerous military 'posturing' around Taiwan
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/britain-warns-china-against-dangerous-military-posturing-around-taiwan

Britain should mind her own business. We are hardly in a position to interfere.

[3catcircus]

Britain should mind her own business. We are hardly in a position to interfere.

It's not about interference. It's about refusing to let the CHICOMs spread like a plague.

I have *zero* concerns if regional militaries were to use China's artificial islands in international waters or CHICOM-occupied disputed islands for bombing and shore bombardment practice.

*ALL* of the world democracies have allowed and encouraged Chinese thievery, espionage, and power grabs. The notion that making them more economically powerful would somehow make their communism go away was a terrible idea from the get-go.

Instead of welcoming them to western universities where they steal intellectual property or allowing them to buy real estate and sell their cheap garbage products, we should have been countering them at every turn, forcefully restricting their access to western market economies, and ruthlessly executing or jailing them and any western collaborators or enablers when caught in acts of espionage and IP theft.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/26/politics/us-taiwan-war-game/index.html


If China were to seize one of Taiwan's outlying islands, the US would have few good options to respond without risking a major escalation and a war between the superpowers, according to the conclusions from a recent war game conducted by foreign policy and defense experts.The scenario, outlined in a report (https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/the-poison-frog-strategy)from the Center for a New American Security, began with China using military force to take control of Dongsha, a tiny atoll in the South China Sea between Taiwan and Hong Kong, where approximately 500 Taiwanese troops are stationed.
This type of limited aggression could be a precursor to the seizure of other islands near Taiwan or an outright invasion of the democratically governed island as Beijing seeks to test and prod Washington's resolve to defend Taiwan.But once China has established its own military footprint on Dongsha and removed the Taiwanese troops, the US had no credible way to compel China to return the island to the control of Taipei, the report states.

https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/documents/TaiwanWargameReport_Formatted-1-1.pdf?mtime=20211025143441&focal=none

the way the United States responds to smaller-scale territorial Chinese aggression
may affect Chinese future decision-making; if the United States allows Chinese coercion or aggression to
go unopposed, China may extend its aggressive behavior elsewhere and may even posit that the United
States wouldn’t defend Taiwan from invasion. Such actions, or lack thereof, could undermine deterrence
by calling into question U.S. willingness to uphold its security commitments.

With Chinese assertiveness rising, U.S. and Taiwanese policymakers need to think through the challenges
of responding to a crisis strongly enough to defend their security interests without turning crisis into conflict.
By gaming out these challenges, the United States and Taiwan can fully grasp the urgency of building an
effective deterrence strategy now to help prevent a future Chinese fait accompli.

[Jimbuna]

China urges families to store basic supplies in case of emergency
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59133027

[Skybird]

Yes, China Has the World’s Largest Navy. That Matters Less Than You Might Think.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/yes-china-has-the-worlds-largest-navy-that-matters-less-than-you-might-think/

Okay-okay, but (and its a big "but"):

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/11/aircraft-carrier-killer-what-anti-ship-ballistic-missiles-are-and-who-has-them/


https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/closer-look-chinas-carrier-killer-missiles-195367

[mapuc]

First thing that came into my mind when I read about these 'Carrier-Killer' Missiles was-defence.

What kind of defence can "kill" these 'Carrier-Killer' Missiles ?

Another thought what would the reply be if China sink 1 or 2 American Carrier in a war ?

Markus

[August]

First thing that came into my mind when I read about these 'Carrier-Killer' Missiles was-defence.

What kind of defence can "kill" these 'Carrier-Killer' Missiles ?

Another thought what would the reply be if China sink 1 or 2 American Carrier in a war ?

Markus


We would sink their ships back, what else?

[Reece]

You forgot to add "with a passion" Dave!! :yep:

[August]

You forgot to add "with a passion" Dave!! :yep:

That goes without saying! :)

[Skybird]

First thing that came into my mind when I read about these 'Carrier-Killer' Missiles was-defence.

What kind of defence can "kill" these 'Carrier-Killer' Missiles ?

Another thought what would the reply be if China sink 1 or 2 American Carrier in a war ?

Markus




Anti-m,issile system work unreliably at beast, and it is easier to overflood a missile defence system than to successfully knockout all vampyres in a swarm.


Against hypsersonic missiles there is currently no defence worth to be claled that.



For the Chinese its all about either knocking the carrier battle groups out, or to keep them so far away that their air threat is no threat anymore. We are talking about a naval war in the vicinit yof the Chinese coat and its air and landabses and harbours. Access to this battleground is what the Chinese want to deny (="access denial"). Their chances are good in achieving that.



IMO carriers are greta in wars aginst inferior enemies of the present. Against an enemy of same technical eye level, they are an outdated stratgey, imo. The military is ver yprone to assume the thignbs that let it win the last war will be the same things that makes it win the next war. But carrier beat battleships. Submarines beat carriers. I likely scenairo to me would be that the US carrier groups are being kept away or are beign knocked out quickly, and the decision at sea then is made amongst both sides submarines. The Australian decision may relfect that.


But many variables in calculating the likely scenairo for that war. It might also go very differently. Almost certain, imho, only is that it will happen. And nthat it will include space and cyberspace warfare. I wonder what combat valkue the American militrary structure has if its most favourite toy - intel satellites and superior communications - gets taken out? Many things, especially in global military logistics, then would collapse. And as Napoleon and many others said over all times of history: its the logistics that decide wars. The US is world champion in doing global military logistics, bu the system is frgaile and vulnerable, sicne it is so widespread and scattered. The chinese fight in the vicinity of their homeland and its protective bases. Big advantage.



The future speaks "autonomous AI", both in the air and under the sea.

[mapuc]

We would sink their ships back, what else?

Didn't you forget something Dave

The homefront.

How will the politician react ? The citizens ?

A war is fought at the battle scene and at home.

Skybird. Thank you, your explanation made me wonder if Carrier will be obsolete after next huge war.

Markus

[nikimcbee]

Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!! :oops:


Could you push Middle Earth in front of them? rumo(u)r has it, Hobbits make great fodder?:hmmm:

[August]

Didn't you forget something Dave

The homefront.

How will the politician react ? The citizens ?

A war is fought at the battle scene and at home.

Markus

I would think that they would realize that such things happen in a war.

If you are looking for a more specific answer to what the American public's reaction might be to losses in that war then all I can point to is the last time that another nation sank our ships. We were so angry we ended up nuking them, twice, and that's after killing a couple million of their troops and bombing their entire country almost back into the stone age.

[mapuc]

I would think that they would realize that such things happen in a war.

If you are looking for a more specific answer to what the American public's reaction might be to losses in that war then all I can point to is the last time that another nation sank our ships. We were so angry we ended up nuking them, twice, and that's after killing a couple million of their troops and bombing their entire country almost back into the stone age.

You are most likely right in your answer.

I was thinking in a peaceful way of thinking

The politicians in the opposition demands a withdrawal.
The defence of Taiwan/Australia/e.t.c. is not worthy all these thousands of American soldiers life.

The Japs attacked an American base. Here USA will defend another country against Chinese aggression.

But it could also mean USA goes one step up and use more powerful weapons.

I truly hope there will not be any war.

Markus

[Skybird]

China is a nuclear power. Japan was not. Just saying.

[mapuc]

China is a nuclear power. Japan was not. Just saying.

Have no clue about the Chinese military doctrine.

I don't know whether they would use nuke or not, if they fail to take Taiwan.

I don't know if USA would use nuke if they failed in defending Taiwan.

Markus

[Skybird]

The US will not nuke in defence of Taiwan. They are not suicidal and will not trade LA and San Francisco for Taiwan. Because China will atomically retaliate against a nuclear strike, and this then will escalate, away from tactical nukes on the ocean to "strategic" nukes in the countries.

However, whether China will start with nukes, is something different. Normally they would not, but they are so drunk of patriotism and megalomania now and so full of themselves and seeing themsleves on the mission to bring heavenly order back to the universe with China naturally being at the centre of all things, that I will not rule out a desastrous miscalculation of theirs that makes them using nukes first. More unlikely than likely maybe - but not impossible. Hybris we call it. For China, the past 200 years of Western dominance were just a little mishap in history. The order of nature and all things in the human world see China as the very centre of everything. That the West must bow to China's claim for global hegemony , is not even explicitly demanded because it must not even be demanded: it is simply implicitly taken for granted, most naturally, like we imply that the word "raining" implies the falling of rain drops from "up" to "down", never the other way around - you must not point this fact explicitly out that it is so, because it just is so.

[August]

The Japs attacked an American base. Here USA will defend another country against Chinese aggression.

Well your example had the Chinese sinking US capital ships and killing thousands of US servicemen. Regardless of how it started once that happens it isn't going to be just about defending long term allies against foreign aggression. And any American politician who at that point advocated walking away would immediately be branded a cowardly sellout to the enemy ChiComs and justifiably so IMO.

But it could also mean USA goes one step up and use more powerful weapons.
Maybe, cause I'd certainly nuke Peking to save Australia if I were in charge. They have been our friends, allies and comrades in arms for over a hundred years and something like six wars. We won't abandon them if I have anything to say about it.

[Reece]

I vote Dave for President! :up: :salute:

[Skybird]

China has apparently given up its doctrine of just minimal nuclear deterrance, and seems to aim at massively increasing its arsenal of warheads, by factors, and it seems it aims at acchieving this much faster than the strategists in Washington had expected. China already now has over 350 nuclear warheads on landbased ICBM's and SLBM submarines. It just introduced a new generation of ICBMs that feature MIRVs. It builds hundreds of new silos, which is much even if some of them may only serve as decoys.

At the same time a network of communications between China and the US that is comparable to that existing between the USSR and the US, does not exist. There is no communication network and no communication mechanism in place to spring to life in case somethign happens and needs to be contained before any escalation spirals out of control.


A US nuking targets in china is a US that will necessarily and inevitably receive its share of Chinese nukie volleys in return. And you can bet these will not just be aimed at "military" targets. Not mentioning even that the huge blast radius makes a destinction between civilian and military targets impossible if an air base or harbour is close to a metropole.

Its absurd to assume the US would accept to get killed dozens of millions of its citizens and its metropoles and industrial centrepoints getting destroyed. Such a president has a good chance not to be just chased away, but getting lynched.

Nuclear weapons are only usable if the enemy has none. That simple it is. The only way to win nuclear exchanges is by not playing them. The prize is avoidance of self-destruction.

[mapuc]

Well your example had the Chinese sinking US capital ships and killing thousands of US servicemen. Regardless of how it started once that happens it isn't going to be just about defending long term allies against foreign aggression. And any American politician who at that point advocated walking away would immediately be branded a cowardly sellout to the enemy ChiComs and justifiably so IMO.


Maybe, cause I'd certainly nuke Peking to save Australia if I were in charge. They have been our friends, allies and comrades in arms for over a hundred years and something like six wars. We won't abandon them if I have anything to say about it.

Again you may be correct, but as Skybird wrote
"Its absurd to assume the US would accept to get killed dozens of millions of its citizens and its metropoles and industrial centrepoints getting destroyed."

So how far would USA go in the defence of Taiwan, Australia ?...No one of us know. I think Skybird is more correct in his statement ^ than I am.

Markus

[August]

Again you may be correct, but as Skybird wrote
"Its absurd to assume the US would accept to get killed dozens of millions of its citizens and its metropoles and industrial centrepoints getting destroyed."

So how far would USA go in the defence of Taiwan, Australia ?...No one of us know. I think Skybird is more correct in his statement ^ than I am.

Markus

The thing that Skybird ignores, probably deliberately, is that to get at either of those countries, especially Australia, China would have to attack American military units and that changes the whole ball game. They are not just going to appear at the outskirts of Canberra and demand that we stand down. We'll know they're coming and we won't need nuclear weapons to completely destroy any invasion force that they put together long before they touch Australian soil.

So let me ask you Skybirds question back. Do you think the ChiComs having had their entire expeditionary force sent to the bottom of the Coral sea will also be willing to loose millions of their citizens, their cities and industrial centers to retaliate against us for putting them there?

[mapuc]

The thing that Skybird ignores, probably deliberately, is that to get at either of those countries, especially Australia, China would have to attack American military units and that changes the whole ball game. They are not just going to appear at the outskirts of Canberra and demand that we stand down. We'll know they're coming and we won't need nuclear weapons to completely destroy any invasion force that they put together long before they touch Australian soil.

So let me ask you Skybirds question back. Do you think the ChiComs having had their entire expeditionary force sent to the bottom of the Coral sea will also be willing to loose millions of their citizens, their cities and industrial centers to retaliate against us for putting them there?

Good question Dave.

The only way to win a nuklear war is not to play the game. Maybe the chance that nuke may be used in a war may give China some second thoughts.

I as said before I truly hope I'm correct here-That China has a second thought before invading Taiwan or Attack Australia for that matter.

Markus

[Skybird]

So how far would USA go in the defence of Taiwan, Australia ?
Why do you think China would attack Australia? Maybe they will, with distanced weapons: missiles, but not as a priority or goal for a war to belaucnhed just for this, but because Australia may interfere with Chinese actions elsewhere, far away for Australia: the South Chinese sea for exmaple. But lauching a war with the goal to invade Australian ground? Absurd. That they consider invading Australia I practically rule out. They would need to get an invasion fleet with troop carriers to Australian coast, across US- and Japanese- "infested waters, to mention just the two most capable opposing navies there, but then there also is Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipines, South Korea... Then they would need to maintain logistic supply chains from China to Australia. And I would expect the Australians by mentality not being overly cooperative either. It all is spelled as "Chinese nightmare".

China will not inavde Australia, not even only to take out Northern bases. They must not. There is no reason for occupying parts of Australia. There are missiles for everything. Cyberware options. Air raids. Submarine launched wepaons. These are what Australia must consider for defence purposes.



Invading Taiwan however is a completely different ballgame. Here an invasion is most likely and would be the reason why they even go to war in the first.



So is taking control of and securing the ressources in the South Chinese sea. All that area is practically Chinese backyard.

[mapuc]

Why do you think China would attack Australia? Maybe they will, with distanced weapons: missiles, but not as a priority or goal for a war to belaucnhed just for this, but because Australia may interfere with Chinese actions elsewhere, far away for Australia: the South Chinese sea for exmaple. But lauching a war with the goal to invade Australian ground? Absurd. That they consider invading Australia I practically rule out. They would need to get an invasion fleet with troop carriers to Australian coast, across US- and Japanese- "infested waters, to mention just the two most capable opposing navies there, but then there also is Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipines, South Korea... Then they would need to maintain logistic supply chains from China to Australia. And I would expect the Australians by mentality not being overly cooperative either. It all is spelled as "Chinese nightmare".

China will not inavde Australia, not even only to take out Northern bases. They must not. There is no reason for occupying parts of Australia. There are missiles for everything. Cyberware options. Air raids. Submarine launched wepaons. These are what Australia must consider for defence purposes.



Invading Taiwan however is a completely different ballgame. Here an invasion is most likely and would be the reason why they even go to war in the first.



So is taking control of and securing the ressources in the South Chinese sea. All that area is practically Chinese backyard.

Because I'm convinced that Australia will take an active part in defending Taiwan and will therefore be seen as an aggressor in the eye of the Chinese.

I do not know what kind of defence Australia has, it was therefore I wrote how far will USA go in defending Australia.

China will not invade Au, they will as you wrote use missiles from land based or sub based.

Edit.
Forgot to mention something. We await an invasion of Taiwan as it was obvious thing to do if you were a Chinese. But I'm also convinced that China is looking at Russia-Ukraine dispute and Putin is doing the same-looking at the Chinese-Taiwan dispute. If the only answer is imposed economical sanction-No one of these two country will hesitate and invade. None of them are sure what kind of response USA NATO will come up with, that's why there may be some doubts in Kreml and Beijing.
This is only a thought-Not written by an expert
End edit

Markus

[Rockstar]

I know when Trump admin slapped tariffs against China. The response from the peanut gallery and snowflakes was we should be afraid of China, they’re so rich and powerful.

Screw China it’s a paper tiger isaber rattling is just the usual modus operandi of dictatorships when their economy tanks and it is tanking hard as western manufacturing is moving out of China and others start diversifying their supply chains to countries other than that backwards communist dictatorship.

Capitalism will destroy those commies every single time. All they have are threats of war, we’ll then, bring it on.

[August]

Capitalism will destroy those commies every single time. All they have are threats of war, we’ll then, bring it on.


Nobody is going to want to uncork the nuclear genie but we don't need to do that to destroy their invasion force so the question returns to what I asked Mapuc earlier:

Would the ChiComs, having had their entire expeditionary force sent to the bottom of the Coral South China sea will also be willing to loose millions of their citizens, their cities and industrial centers to retaliate against us for putting them there?

[mapuc]

Nobody is going to want to uncork the nuclear genie but we don't need to do that to destroy their invasion force so the question returns to what I asked Mapuc earlier:

Would the ChiComs, having had their entire expeditionary force sent to the bottom of the Coral South China sea will also be willing to loose millions of their citizens, their cities and industrial centers to retaliate against us for putting them there?

And here is what I answered in the first time.
"The only way to win a nuklear war is not to play the game. Maybe the chance that nuke may be used in a war may give China some second thoughts."

Markus

[August]

And here is what I answered in the first time.
"The only way to win a nuklear war is not to play the game. Maybe the chance that nuke may be used in a war may give China some second thoughts."

Markus


One would hope. Maybe though we should secretly arm the Taiwanese with a few nuclear weapons of their own. If possessing them is the great deterrent that everyone claims they are then letting Taiwan into the club puts up a mighty barrier to ChiCom aggression.

[Catfish]

https://taz-de.translate.goog/China-eskaliert-Konflikt-mit-Litauen/!5817231/?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US

[mapuc]

One would hope. Maybe though we should secretly arm the Taiwanese with a few nuclear weapons of their own. If possessing them is the great deterrent that everyone claims they are then letting Taiwan into the club puts up a mighty barrier to ChiCom aggression.

It would mean peace for a very long time. Knowing that Taiwan or Japan or some other countries near South Chinese sea has nukes may give China not a second but a third thought before thinking about attacking one of these countries.

Or does it ? Giving Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan etc nukes- wouldn't it be better to be protected by a superpower who has nukes.

I know for a fact what's going to happen if China make real of their threat and start to invade Taiwan-From UN, EU, USA there will only come harsh words and condemnation AND economical sanctions.

Off topic input to the response from western country if China does attack Taiwan.
(When Putin Know how weak Western is-Russia will invade Ukraine)
End off topic input.

Markus

[mapuc]

https://taz-de.translate.goog/China-eskaliert-Konflikt-mit-Litauen/!5817231/?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US

From the article

"Whether that will happen is questionable - not least because of the increasing economic dependence on China"

This is why there wouldn't come a military response-If China does attack Taiwan.

Markus

[August]

It would mean peace for a very long time. Knowing that Taiwan or Japan or some other countries near South Chinese sea has nukes may give China not a second but a third thought before thinking about attacking one of these countries.

Or does it ? Giving Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan etc nukes- wouldn't it be better to be protected by a superpower who has nukes.


How could it better? We've just been discussing the reluctance of a superpower to start a nuclear war on behalf of another country. I believe that the atomic shield does not extend to others.

[Jimbuna]

The best way to influence China would be for the western world to mutually agree to cease trading with them.....as if that would ever happen.

[mapuc]

How could it better? We've just been discussing the reluctance of a superpower to start a nuclear war on behalf of another country. I believe that the atomic shield does not extend to others.

Yes, we did, it was your answer
"Maybe though we should secretly arm the Taiwanese with a few nuclear weapons of their own....."

That made me think otherwise.
He's right, giving them nukes would make China think twice before attacking.

Then I came to think of preventing spreading of nukes.

That's why I continued with
Or does it....

As you have mentioned-If China use nukes as a last resort - USA will reply with nukes.

USA will not be the one who start using nukes-I doubt it to be honest. If USA lose the war against China-I don't think they would use nukes as a last resort.

Markus

[mapuc]

The best way to influence China would be for the western world to mutually agree to cease trading with them.....as if that would ever happen.

See my comment in #186.

Then you will know if that would ever happen.

Markus

[Reece]

I agree with Jim but I doubt the various governments would have the b_lls to act.

[mapuc]

China Is Now The Richest Country On Earth

https://www.cnbctv18.com/news/it-isnt-us-china-is-now-the-richest-nation-in-the-world-11484312.htm

Markus

[Jimbuna]

I doubt the vast majority of the population receive any benefit because of that.

[Skybird]

Their biggest wealth is incarnated in the wonderful and holy god-emperor of theirs . In his family's secret banking accounts, I mean.

[Skybird]

China must see a tempting opportunity here:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/24/politics/f-35-pilot-eject-south-china-sea/index.html


German media report two US carrier groups and a Japanese helcopter carrier "stay nearby", but China has some tools avalable, too, nanmely undersea robots and drones. It is to be hoped that they know precisely where the plane hit the sea bottom, so that they can guard the location against too pesky Chinese.

[August]

China must see a tempting opportunity here:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/24/politics/f-35-pilot-eject-south-china-sea/index.html


German media report two US carrier groups and a Japanese helcopter carrier "stay nearby", but China has some tools avalable, too, nanmely undersea robots and drones. It is to be hoped that they know precisely where the plane hit the sea bottom, so that they can guard the location against too pesky Chinese.

Put away your glee, the jet crash landed on deck.

[Skybird]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/navy-fighter-jet-crashes-carrier-landing-south-china/story?id=82447562


The navy originally had been silent or evasive on whether the plane wreck was under control or not, but the news by ABC now quoting a spokesman seems to indicate that the plane indeed has fallen off the carrier. It remains unclear whether the plane then floated on the sea, or went into a dive. Considering that it was struck by technical mishap during landing and so the fuel tanks might have been empty and instead filled with air, I would assume as a layman that chances were that it floated, not went down.

[Jimbuna]

Good to learn there were no fatalities.

[Skybird]

Good to learn there were no fatalities.
No doubt, but - without wanting to be cold or cyncial: far more relevant is that the Chinese do not get even more access to the technology of the plane. That's logic not of a civil society at peace, but of an army operating by the logic of war, sorry.

[Catfish]

[...], the jet crash landed on deck.
“I can confirm the aircraft impacted the flight deck during landing and subsequently fell to the water” said Lieutenant Nicholas Lingo, spokesperson for the US Seventh Fleet.

“The US Navy is making recovery operations arrangements for the F-35C aircraft.”

https://www.dw.com/en/us-navy-tries-to-salvage-fighter-jet-that-fell-into-south-china-sea/a-60554096

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/25/asia/us-f-35-crash-recovery-south-china-sea-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

The deepest abyss in the South Chinese Sea is 5500+ m, the average depth of the area is 1200+ m.

[Skybird]

The Chinese are slobbering. The race is on. The stakes are high.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60148482

"If they can get into the 35's networking capabilities, it effectively undermines the whole carrier philosophy."
I have another theory. The plane got bugged with wrong data, and it was intentionally thrown over board so that the Chinese will find it. After a hot race, of course. :O:

[Skybird]

China plays the innocent lamb and says it had no interest in that American warplane. Yeah, sure. And I am not intertested in pizza all of a sudden.



Meanwhile on social media a photo is ciruclating. Its a good sign, imo, becasue oit shows the plane is in pjne piece and thus should be easier to be detected on the ground of the sea. It is said in media that the recovery ships will notr arrive before the emergency singal/blackbox singal form the plane will die, so beign able to fix its position before or detect5 it afetr those batteries die, seems to be quite important.


https://d.newsweek.com/en/full/1975984/photo-purportedly-shows-crashed-f-35c-fighter-aircraft.jpg?w=790&f=974847feb026896ce5d4ae464b155693


I would also assume that the position of the floating wreck has been painstakingly precisely marked on the map. On the way down to the bottom it may have however glided away from that marking.

[Skybird]

Lithuania versus China.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/30/europe/lithuania-took-on-china-intl-cmd/index.html

[Jimbuna]

Lithuania versus China.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/30/europe/lithuania-took-on-china-intl-cmd/index.html

Good luck with that.

[Catfish]

re Lithuania:
If only some would follow .. it was a move in the right direction.

[Jimbuna]

re Lithuania:
If only some would follow .. it was a move in the right direction.

Precisely! :yep:

[mapuc]

Good luck with that.

It made me remember the movie The Mouse that roared.

Markus

[Reece]

or the series "Goliath". (should have been X-rated imo)

[ET2SN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx0SSS5YUso

A little long winded but a good discussion about the F-35 crash.

Keep in mind, its very early to start speculating but these guys know their beans. :up:

Possible trouble with Aviators becoming too dependent on jets that can fly themselves. :hmmm: The gist of this is the pilots always using the software to land the jet, then the CO starts cracking down on shooting some manual approaches and the parts start to fly off the carrier deck.
In other words, the auto pilot is that good.

[ET2SN]

Meanwhile, I'm thinking I should have started a thread just for this, but..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma_nEqBdLSA

For the record, if your idea is "I don't see the problem" you're probably under 30. :yep:

Its called a Crash Investigation, not a Crash Exposé or a Crash Blast. :up:

[mapuc]

China is monitoring what goes on in the White House and their steps they take against Russia-So far I'm convince they see nothing but weakness and this may be a bad thing for Taiwan.

I think we will be witness to a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan this year or next.

Markus

[Skybird]

Does anyone know what happened with that crash-landed F-35 that dropped into the SouthChinese Sea? The story somehow dropped off my radar screen.

[Catfish]

Meanwhile, I'm thinking I should have started a thread just for this, but.. [...]
For the record, if your idea is "I don't see the problem" you're probably under 30. :yep: [...] :
Interesting, however these men talking about openly on Youtube is something i would not have expected, as well as the leaked video :D

On the other hand, modern times. So apart from sailors, iphones, GoPros anyone could place a camouflaged camera somewhere on a carrier when in port, e.g. just by using a drone placing it there.

[Jimbuna]

Does anyone know what happened with that crash-landed F-35 that dropped into the SouthChinese Sea? The story somehow dropped off my radar screen.

Can't find anything more recent than Jan 26th

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/us-navy-working-to-recover-f-35-that-fell-into-the-south-china-sea.html#:~:text=An%20F%2D35%20from%20Britain's,th at%20aircraft%20was%20subsequently%20recovered.

[mapuc]

This is an update on my lastest comment Post #212

Concerns have been rising in recent years that a confident China under leader Xi Jinping may make a bold move to take control of Taiwan, and Beijing will likely be carefully monitoring the situation in Ukraine for signs of how Western powers respond -- and just how severe those responses are.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/23/china/taiwan-ukraine-parallels-china-russia-intl-hnk-mic/index.html

Markus

[ET2SN]

As I understand it, the good news is that it sank in 10,000+ feet of ocean.
The bad news is that it sank in 10,000+ feet of ocean.

:k_confused:

Even using ROVs, that is a difficult salvage operation.
When you think about it, it would also be a difficult-to-impossible scuttling operation. :hmmm:

[ET2SN]

Interesting, however these men talking about openly on Youtube is something i would not have expected, as well as the leaked video :D

On the other hand, modern times. So apart from sailors, iphones, GoPros anyone could place a camouflaged camera somewhere on a carrier when in port, e.g. just by using a drone placing it there.

The main idea is that those guys know better.
You don't taint the accident investigation because the rest of the fleet can benefit from the findings (unless you're trying to sell technothrillers on Amazon :doh: ).

The problem is that you can speculate about what went wrong as well as Ward.
Speculation doesn't mean stink but it can influence a valid investigation.

As far as leaking footage, like I said, if you're under 30 you don't understand why its bad. :O:

[Catfish]

[...]
As far as leaking footage, like I said, if you're under 30 you don't understand why its bad. :O:
I expect this to change soon, again.

[mapuc]

Have no words I can put down.

Taiwan's military released a handbook on civil defence for the first time on Tuesday, giving citizens survival guidance in a war scenario as Russia's invasion of Ukraine focuses attention on how the island should respond to China's pressure.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-issues-first-war-survival-handbook-amid-china-threat-2022-04-12/

Markus

[Skybird]

A whimsical opinion piece from FOCUS.

China's great self-deception: now it's all blown open

Wasn't China just touted to us as the laboratory of modernity? And now? Now they're sticking test sticks in salmon and condemning millions to house arrest for fortune cookies and expired yogurt.

I have been to many countries in the world in my lifetime. I belong to a generation that was still allowed to fly without a guilty conscience. Actually, I liked it everywhere.

I was also in China once. I was there on a state visit as a member of the journalistic entourage of the German president.

From a tourist point of view, there's nothing to complain about. The country has breathtaking landscapes to offer. The Forbidden City is one of the architectural marvels that must be seen. Shanghai is a megalopolis that changes its face so quickly that every six months the city map is outdated.

In Beijing, we were invited to a state banquet. We were seated at tables of 12. My seat neighbor to the right was some bigwig in the state apparatus, my neighbor to the left did something with finance.

If you ever get an invitation to a state dinner, think twice about attending. It's usually a mind-numbing event. Of course, you don't let that show. After all, you're not invited as a private citizen, but as a representative of your country. So you try to make a good impression.

I tried to get a conversation going in English. But it was obvious that I was talking to the wrong people. The Chinese to my right was typing into his cell phone without even looking at me. The neighbor to my left turned his back on me and talked on the phone at ease while slurping his soup at the same time. The only consolation was that my fellow passengers were no better off, as a glance across the other tables told me.

I have to admit, this experience has clouded my image of China as a cultural country a bit. I am convinced that there are also charming, modest Chinese who know how to behave toward strangers in such a way that they do not feel that hospitality is a dirty word. I just haven't met them.

The crazy thing about the Chinese is: they think they are the crown of creation. I don't think there is any people who are as full of themselves as the Chinese. Anyone who isn't like them is considered a second-class person - when it comes down to it. I would have thought that a nation that has to be painstakingly taught not to spit on the ground at every opportunity would still have room for improvement in terms of civilization, as the saying goes. But that is probably the typical European snootiness.

Why this little preface? Because for weeks I have been finding reports in the newspapers about how they are imposing one lockdown after another in Shanghai. In Beijing, too, citizens fear a new curfew.

No one is allowed to leave the apartment, not even to walk the dog. Robots patrol the streets, exhorting people to stay in their homes. They are starving. Since residents in Shanghai stepped out onto their balconies to shout out their desperation, they are also forbidden to enter. Those caught opening the balcony window face serious consequences.

Only those who have the misfortune to end up in one of the quarantine centers are worse off. The hygienic conditions in the camps are so disastrous that one is guaranteed to catch, if not covid, then some other terrible disease. There are reports of old people being dragged from their beds at night to be segregated. Children are separated from their parents, babies from their mothers. No one is safe anymore.

I read the reports from Shanghai with a mixture of fascination and horror. Wasn't China, until just now, being touted to us as the Mecca of high technology? As the country where everything happens ten times as fast as here? As the future laboratory of capitalism and the beacon of modernity? And now they are putting test sticks into salmon because the virus was supposedly introduced via Norwegian salmon stocks, and condemning millions to house arrest with fortune cookies and expired yogurt. I imagined modernity differently.

All over the world, life is starting to get back to normal, except in China. Why? Because national pride prevents the Chinese from being vaccinated with a vaccine that works. There is a Chinese vaccine, but it is no good against Omicron. It is one thing to copy Adidas sneakers or Stihl chainsaws, and quite another to copy an mRNA vaccine. There is a contract with Biontech for the delivery of 100 million doses of the vaccine, but it lacks approval because the state leadership sees its use as an admission of weakness. So the only option is the permanent lockdown. Zero Covid Forever.

I've never understood how anyone can stand China. This mixture of crony capitalism, control addiction, and undisguised aggressiveness would drive me crazy. But I met a lot of people who raved about China. The speed, they said, the efficiency! Learning from Asia would mean learning to win.

That was also true of Corona for a long time. Do you remember, two years ago, when we had talk shows full of young women with Asian immigrant backgrounds who could explain to us exactly what they were doing better than us far to the east? It has become noticeably quieter around the No Covid friends.

A very big China fan was Angela Merkel. Her eyes lit up when she spoke of her visits to Xi Jinping. No chancellor has visited the People's Republic as often as she has. She was there twelve times during her term. I think she secretly admired Xi Jinping for the way he governed the country. To be able to govern the country as he did, without any silly talk from the side, that would have been her dream, too. One would like to know how she sees it today. But she has disappeared.
Xi Jinping wants to be re-elected in the fall

Perhaps in the future we should look more carefully at whom we depend on economically. I'm not in favor of closing ourselves off or rolling back globalization, not at all. But it would be nice if we didn't repeat the mistake we made with Russia. Anyone who puts 1.5 million people into re-education camps just because they belong to a religious community they distrust at the head of state can be trusted with anything, even evil.

Chinese State and Party leader Xi Jinping said a year ago about the fight against Covid-19: "Judging by how the pandemic has been handled by different governments and political systems, we can clearly see who is better." At that point, it still looked like China would come through the crisis as a model country.

Xi Jinping wants to be re-elected in the fall. He has had the constitution amended specifically for this purpose. He will be in power even longer than Mao. I see no reason to disagree with him. "Judged by the results...": sure, why not?

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

Western stupidity knows no limits. "But we mean it so well!" Mimimimimi...!

https://beta.dw.com/en/are-european-academics-helping-chinas-military/a-61834716

https://www.ftm.eu/chinascienceinvestigation


Chinese scientists are collaborating extensively with Western universities. But does their research have strings attached? What about cooperation on sensitive topics, meaning that high-quality Western knowledge might flow to the Chinese regime? And to what extent is the Chinese military involved in such collaborations with the West, for instance through its own scientists and research institutes? To map the scope of this problem, platform for investigative journalism Follow the Money gathered over 350,000 scientific papers published in the past two decades, and made those available to a collective of eleven investigative desks from seven European countries. At the initiative of FTM and with the support of CORRECTIV, 30 journalists uncover the academic strategy of the Chinese authorities.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/31/asia/china-taiwan-invasion-scenarios-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html


if China tries to take Taiwan, are the United States and its allies able to stop it?And the alarming answer is: Quite possibly not. Analysts say China has more troops, more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters, like the US or Japan, could bring to a fight. That means that if China is absolutely determined to take the island it probably can.


But there's a caveat; while China could likely prevail, any victory would come at an extremely bloody price for both Beijing and its adversaries.

Many analysts say an invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complex than the Allied D-Day landings in France in World War II. US government documents put the number of killed, injured and missing from both sides during the almost three-month-long Normandy campaign at almost half a million troops.And the civilian carnage could be far, far worse.
(...)
Despite its numerical advantages in sea-, air- and land-based forces in the region, China has Achilles heels in each arena of war that would force Beijing to think long and hard about whether an invasion is worth the overwhelming human cost.
(...)
In a quarantine scenario, the Chinese government would effectively take control of the air and sea borders of Taiwan," they wrote. "The Chinese government would run effectively a clearance operation offshore or in the air to screen incoming ships and aircraft. The screeners could then wave along what they regarded as innocent traffic."Anything regarded as belligerent, such as US military aid for Taiwan, could be blocked or confiscated as a violation of Chinese sovereignty, they say. Meanwhile, China could allow the Taiwan government to function as normal except for foreign affairs.

This option would have an advantage in China's eyes: the ball would be in the US' court as to whether to use force to end the quarantine. Then it would be the US that would have to consider whether to risk a war that could cost countless lives.

[Skybird]

The story of the crashed F-35 dropped off our radar screens before it was solved, so here is how it ended, already in early March:


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60607784

[Jimbuna]

"The recovery effort shows the US Navy's commitment to its assets, and a free and open Indo-Pacific," the Navy said in a statement.

I suspect it would be more accurate to suggest they were afraid the Chinese would get to it first and clone it.

[ET2SN]

Just some FYI:

Do not project your "norms", practical knowledge and quick solutions on China.
They have been around for a long, long time. :yep:

If Xi is willing to strangle the golden goose (trade) in order to get tough with the world, that will be his *** in the wringer. There's nothing like a global pandemic to bring nations together, and I've been pleasantly surprised in some of the united fronts who are willing to say, "Oh, no you don't".

Its one thing to have a powerful air force and navy. Its a whole different ball game in knowing how to use them. :yep:

Carry on. :yeah:

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/17/china/china-new-aircraft-carrier-fujian-launch-intl-hnk/index.html


https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220617013106-01-china-carrier-fujian-exlarge-169.jpg

[Skybird]

The merchant ferries. The militia ships. Hear, hear... :03:


https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/25/asia/china-navy-aircraft-carrier-analysis-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html



Essentially, experts say, the Fujian might be China's biggest ship, but it's probably not the biggest problem on the minds of US naval commanders right now.
Here are four types of ship at China's disposal that arguably pose a far greater threat to US naval dominance.

[Jimbuna]

^ That was a good read :up:

[Buddahaid]

More dope on number 003.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1q4yMOHJRk

[Skybird]

In light of Russia's setbacks in the Ukraine war, China could adjust its strategy for a possible attack on Taiwan, according to the U.S. foreign intelligence agency CIA. The leadership in Beijing, however, is unlikely to back away from its plans to take violent action against Taiwan despite Russia's "strategic failure" in Ukraine, CIA chief William Burns said Wednesday at a security conference in Aspen. China's ambassador asserted that his country seeks "peaceful reunification."

China's leadership is "uneasy" about the setbacks to the Russian army in Ukraine, Burns said at the Aspen Security Forum. But he said this has less bearing on "whether" Chinese leaders might decide to "use force to control Taiwan" in a few years, and more on "how and when they would do it."

The determination of China's President Xi Jinping to gain control of Taiwan, however, "should not be underestimated," the CIA chief stressed. China is likely to learn the lesson that "quick, decisive victories" can be achieved only if "overwhelming forces" are assembled, the CIA chief said. In addition, he said, China has probably learned that it needs to hedge its economy against possible sanctions.

Der Spiegel

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[Skybird]

What a surprise - not! :timeout:



https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/23/politics/fbi-investigation-huawei-china-defense-department-communications-nuclear/index.html


Years ago I owned a Huawei P8. Good phone, thin and small and capable. But I will not buy Chinese tech stuff again, not even order - knowingly - from China again.


Once you stopped believing the stork bringing babies, and Santa Claus and the Easter bunny, you never can go back to those happy times of your early childhood. And once you identified an enemy, you can not go back to see in him your friend, you partner, your ally again.

[Jimbuna]

I'd give them (China) an A for trying though :)

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/01/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit/index.html

Chinese interceptors are scrambling to shoot her down. :D

It seems she wants to indeed force the US to clear its position over Taiwan. "Strategic ambiguity" is nonsense. Its nonsense when Bubble Olaf used it to explain his back-and-forth manouvering towards Putin before the war, and its nonsense with the US's stand regarding Taiwan. Strategic ambiguity signals only one thing: that one is weaseling and plays clever wordgames because one is scared out of one's pants.
Western dependency on Taiwan's chip production is more threatening than our dependency on Russian gas. Same goes for Europe's dependency on pharmaceuticals and medical supplies from Asia, namely India.

Der Tagesspiegel writes:

Is Europe and the U.S. threatening a two-front war against China and Russia - triggered by a dramatic clumsiness of U.S. policy? On August 1, of all days, tensions with Beijing are growing over plans by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan.

On the founding day of the People's Army, China celebrates its imperial ambition with nationalist rhetoric. It views democratic Taiwan as a renegade province with no right to its own foreign policy.

China threatens to intercept Pelosi's plane. "If you play with fire, you will get burned," President Xi warned Joe Biden by phone. Now China is holding live ammunition maneuvers opposite the island of Taiwan.

Viewed from Germany, Taiwan may seem far away. And the conflict over its status under international law and the future of its democracy may seem secondary.

An outbreak of war is likely to change that in a flash. It would ominously exacerbate Europe's precarious security situation and economic and political blackmail vulnerability, which the fighting in Ukraine has exposed.

The dependence on strategically important goods from Asia, from semiconductors for the auto industry to pharmaceuticals, is even higher than that on Russian gas. And how will Europe stand up to Russia militarily when the United States is focusing its forces on the conflict in the Pacific? The success of the Ukrainian counterforce owes more to U.S. assistance than to Europe.

The escalation in Taiwan is a double alarm signal for Germany and the EU: In the short term, the threat of war must be averted. In the medium term, they must review all areas of their relations with China to see where existential dependencies threaten and reduce them. Experts have long been warning of a war over Taiwan.

The current situation can be eased. The future is uncertain.

Europe has little influence on the current escalation. It is reassuring that Biden and Xi spoke on the phone for more than two hours. Their goal is détente. Domestic crises are putting so much pressure on both that they must avoid a war over Taiwan at all costs.

Here as there, the economy is the biggest concern. The US faces the twin threats of inflation and recession. China's zero-covid strategy has failed. In the absence of growth, there is no money to combat the many structural problems and keep citizens happy with prosperity gains.

The residual risk of escalation comes from Xi and his nationalist zeal. Biden's popularity would not grow through another war. Xi wants to stay at the top for longer than ten years, contrary to the usual limits on power, and needs the party's blessing to do so.
Pelosi made a mistake, but the real danger comes from Xi

The danger of war over Taiwan will not diminish in the next few years. China bears most of the blame.

Pelosi cannot be blamed for wanting to visit Taiwan. Predecessors have done so, and so have European politicians. Democracies must stand together and show that.

Pelosi's mistake was her insensitive choice of date after the original trip was canceled in the spring because of Covid. Her visit may be postponed again. It must not be cancelled, certainly not after the unacceptable threats to shoot down her plane.

Germany and Europe must now do everything to ensure that their ability to act in the event of a Taiwan war does not suffer from economic dependencies as in the case of Ukraine. Taiwan is a front-runner in semiconductor production, but so far has not met Europe's requests to move some of its manufacturing to the EU.
Deal: Assistance for Taiwan in exchange for building a chip factory in Europe

Why not counter deals that benefit everyone, along the lines of Taiwan getting more political and military support from Europe and the U.S. if it builds chip factories here.

This also serves peace. China could then not speculate that the West would not stand by Taiwan in the event of an attack because it fears for the supply of vital goods from Asia.

[mapuc]

Thank you Skybird for providing an interesting article. Since I read about Pelosi's plan on paying Taiwan a one day visit. I have been wondering how they would react to this.

They don't take it easy they are angry.
Is there anything they can do about it-Of course there is a lot they can do-
The question is: Are they interested in losing what they have archieved until now

Markus

[Jimbuna]

'Just thinking out loud Sky'

If China moves militarily against Taiwan, what in all practical honesty can the USA do?

I'm of the opinion China fear trade sanctions more than Putin does and truly believe Xi is more level headed than Putin....but in the back of my head I keep hearing the voices saying "expect the unexpected"

I seriously doubt Taiwan would hold out as long as Ukraine have.

[Skybird]

Me too thinks the US is not really capable or determined to defend Taiwan, I say since years that I would take an American naval victory not for granted even if the war would take place, and the balances are shifting constantly in China'S favour, militarily. I admit already now I would pout my money on China. They still run an incredible arms boosting program, whereas the US struggles to keep its goals for ship and submarine numbers on the levels projected for the coming 20 years. The Ukraine war teaches China that they must strike the first attack much tougher than they probably previously assumed. The war is delayed, but when it then comes, imo inevitably, it will be starting even "louder", much more devastating and destructive. The task to get troops acroiss the strait, take the beaches and then take the diffiocult gegraphy of Taiwan, is huge, but I think if you have the willingness to use the ammounts of destruction and brute forces needed to simply wipe out what is there, they can do it. With horrendous losses, "but that is no problem".


I do not trust the US capability anymore to effectively use its carriers in the to be expected combat theatres. The Chinese will start the war not as long as they cannot guarantee to keep the carriers too far away - or destroy them.



Xi is obsessed with nationalism as so many autocratic leaders of his kind are, including Putin, and wants reunfication, no matter in which way, until 2049, some historic thing that is for him and China. He also has given orders for readjusting the economic orientation towards becoming much less dependent from foreign investors and cooperations, and become more autark, that is a lesson he probably learns also from the current war, from Russia'S example. When China one day starts to the war, we can assume, I think, it will be far less vulnerable for sanctions than Russia. And even Russia now does not see its war fighting affected by the sanctions.



The Taiwanese morale and support for its armed forces I ealrier this year red to have substantially suffered in recent years, they have equipmment of thi quality and that quanitty, but the willingness of volunteer d to dinate themsekves to the cause was describe din that analysis to be questionable. Hard to preidct what comes of that when China gets real, but the needed training and experience gathering in the years before that boiling point obviously will be missing then.



China wants Taiwan, and they will prefer to completely destroy it and all its industrial assets to letting it live independently. This is what the West must understand: the Chinese ambition has little to do with conquering industrial assets and economic gains, its about subjugation alone - and if the slave refuses to kneel: his execution.



We need to become far more independent from Taiwan in high tech production like we need to become in dependent from the pharmaceutical production in India. Currently, we beg everybody to blackmail us.



We should work with maximum urgency to turn Taiwan into a place that is over and over pickled with ASMs and SAMs. Much more than there are now.



And Europe? Cannot handle the Russians alone, so when America is bound in Asia, its currenty problems will even widen fundamentally. The only thing that can prevcent this is a Russia that weklanes itseldf due to inner collapse. They all wish for that to happen. They all try to conjure exaclty this scenario. So far I do not see it happening, so far its wishful thinking.



The EU wanst to play at the boig table, but it cannot and never will be. Europe's historic cycle in world history is in decline, and steeply so now. Its a secondary, minor player only.

[August]

I seriously doubt Taiwan would hold out as long as Ukraine have.


You might be right although from what I read the island nation has terrain that is much more suitable for defense and could really give the ChiComs a bloody nose if set up and conducted with some competence.

[Skybird]

Thank you Skybird for providing an interesting article. Since I read about Pelosi's plan on paying Taiwan a one day visit. I have been wondering how they would react to this.

They don't take it easy they are angry.
Is there anything they can do about it-Of course there is a lot they can do-
The question is: Are they interested in losing what they have archieved until now


Who says they see that they are loosing something? In the recent years they showed ostentatious self-confidence and intimidated riparian states ever more brutally and ruthlessly.


If the approach vector of Pelosi's plane allows it, its very realistic that they would send fighters and "escort"it close to Taiwan, maybe even try to force it to alter its course. Anything must be expected.

[mapuc]

Who says they see that they are loosing something? In the recent years they showed ostentatious self-confidence and intimidated riparian states ever more brutally and ruthlessly.


If the approach vector of Pelosi's plane allows it, its very realistic that they would send fighters and "escort"it close to Taiwan, maybe even try to force it to alter its course. Anything must be expected.

I hope you're right Skybird ´cause I don't like the alternative.

Oh forgot what you wrote as an answer to Jim so there seems to be no alternative-

I could very well imagine following:
China try to intercept maybe fire some shots some meters in front of the plane Pelosi is on, trying to get it to alter course.

In USA there will be rage-Politicians and citizens demands action..which wouldn't come..as you wrote "the US is not really capable or determined to defend Taiwan, I say since years that I would take an American naval victory not for granted even if the war would take place"

Top leaders and top politician in USA know this too.

Then I could be wrong and USA does send a huge bunch of JASSM towards China's military and infrastructure.

Lets hope it stay with big words from China and do not escalate.

Edit
The question is who's going to blink first.
I say it will be USA-Biden will call Pelosi ask her to skip Taiwan.
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

They will NOT open fire, but do close fly-bys, or get very close to "bullying range". Firing shots at a plane with a high ranking representative of the American parliamentary system aboard would be nothing but an act of war, a war declaration, imo.

They would try to force the plane to turn away, or enforce landing at one of their bases, threatening to fire.


But really firing? I think not even the Chinese are that insane. Not yet at least.

[Onkel Neal]

You think Russia's senseless invasion of Ukraine was bad, get ready for China to rock your world.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/china-us-taiwan-pelosi.html
The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait.

China’s ambitions have risen along with its military power and it may soon be capable of seizing democratically ruled Taiwan — even in a fight with the United States. President Xi Jinping is hoping to get an unprecedented third term later this fall and cannot afford to appear weak. He has been increasing pressure on Taiwan and apparently believes the United States is abandoning its circumspection about Taiwan’s status and may soon formally back the island’s independence.

At the same time, longstanding U.S. “strategic ambiguity” has given way to strategic confusion. President Biden’s misstatements on Taiwan are undermining the carefully devised policy that has kept the peace for decades. He has repeatedly said that the United States has a commitment to defend Taiwan. Last November, Mr. Biden remarked that Taiwan is “independent.” U.S.-Taiwan official exchanges, military cooperation and U.S. warship transits of the Taiwan Strait that were once kept under wraps are being made public.

A single spark could ignite this combustible situation into a crisis that escalates to military conflict. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could provide it.

The House speaker is said to be planning a stop in Taiwan as part of a trip through Asia. Ms. Pelosi and her advisers may think this would have a stabilizing effect: Many in Washington believe that strong demonstrations of U.S. commitment to Taiwan will dissuade China from risking a military adventure.

But at this moment, a visit by Ms. Pelosi to Taiwan could instead provoke a forceful Chinese response.

China considers Taiwan part of its sovereign territory and reacts furiously when U.S. politicians travel there. A visit by Ms. Pelosi would take this to another level. She would be the highest-ranking U.S. visitor since another House speaker, Newt Gingrich, in 1997.


Ms. Pelosi is also loathed in China for pressing Beijing on human rights. Images of her alighting in Taiwan would be seen in China as a serious provocation.

Mr. Xi, who, like his predecessors, has repeatedly stressed that China will someday reunify Taiwan with the mainland, may take big risks to defend a perceived infringement on China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Beijing has warned that its military will not sit idly by if the trip goes ahead.


https://www.businessinsider.com/us-ships-and-jets-near-taiwan-amid-china-warnings-2022-8
A US carrier and a pair of ships carrying F-35 stealth fighters are operating near Taiwan amid Chinese warnings

[mapuc]

They will NOT open fire, but do close fly-bys, or get very close to "bullying range". Firing shots at a plane with a high ranking representative of the American parliamentary system aboard would be nothing but an act of war, a war declaration, imo.

They would try to force the plane to turn away, or enforce landing at one of their bases, threatening to fire.


But really firing? I think not even the Chinese are that insane. Not yet at least.

My imagination sometimes runs away with me..Secondly I didn't say China would fire directly at the plane-But beside it-To make it change course.

Yea it would most likely be as you wrote-Close fly-by or...

I still say it still depends on who's going to blink first and I say USA.
Biden will call Pelosi and ask/Demand her to skib any plans on visiting Taiwan.

The last state she will visit will be South Korea and thereafter she will be heading homeward.

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

I hope they blow the Plane outta the Sky.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkXrSkGlop0

[mapuc]

It's not the first time some high ranked politician from USA visit Taiwan

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-lawmakers-coming-taiwan-military-focused-trip-report-2021-11-25/

Markus

[Skybird]

Biden will call Pelosi and ask/Demand her to skib any plans on visiting Taiwan.


She is old. The trip already got delayed from February I think. And its her last term, she leaves in a few months.

Now or never.

I think its not bad that she may force Biden to clearly position himself without that strategic ambiguity BS - because what else could he do if the Chinese overreact? Kneel and say "we're sorry, we do it never again, promised"?

Like the Russians, the Chinese in recent years showed they understand only one language: that of force. They bullied practically all their neighbours in the air and on the seas, claim international waters, steal fishing grounds in other nation's territorial waters, and so forth. They always dose it such that just so the US would not react - just so... That way many small steps of advancing on the enemy and at his cost have been collected, combining to a by now impressively massive advance. And the US has done nothing, as they calculated.


And anyone one remembering the recce plane incident around one and a half decade ago when the American plane had to declare an emergency landing...? ;)

[mapuc]

She is old. The trip already got delayed from February I think. And its her last term, she leaves in a few months.

Now or never.

I think its not bad that she may force Biden to clearly position himself without that strategic ambiguity BS - because what else could he do if the Chinese overreact? Kneel and say "we're sorry, we do it never again, promised"?

Like the Russians, the Chinese in recent years showed they understand only one language: that of force. They bullied practically all their neighbours in the air and on the seas, claim international waters, steal fishing grounds in other nation's territorial waters, and so forth. They always dose it such that just so the US would not react - just so... That way many small steps of advancing on the enemy and at his cost have been collected, combining to a by now impressively massive advance. And the US has done nothing, as they calculated.


And anyone one remembering the recce plane incident around one and a half decade ago when the American plane had to declare an emergency landing...? ;)

My comments so far has mostly been based on what you wrote on the page before-

Where you wrote
"the US is not really capable or determined to defend Taiwan, I say since years that I would take an American naval victory not for granted even if the war would take place"

And I replied with
Top leaders and top politician in USA know this too.

This is why I'm convince USA will blink first to avoid any escalation-Yes they have a Carrier in the strait of Taiwan-But that's only showing off.

What I may add to our discussion
Can or will Biden do it-Prevent Pelosi from visiting Taiwan ?

Edit
You guys knows a lot more than I do when it comes to geopolitical and military. I can only write from what you have written and what I read and hear in the news and adding some personal belief.
End Edit

Markus

[Skybird]

I am no educated expert either, markus, so do not take my words as the final argument, I can be wrong, too. I only try to make sense of a chaotic world as best as I can, basing on patterns shown in the past. But in the question of Russian gas and Germany and Nordstream 2 I had my brain in freezing mode like so many others, too, so... :hmmm:

[mapuc]

Thank you Skybird. If it becomes to chaotic in the news or in the world - Which I don't like so I close myself into some game and play games like ETS2 or ATS.

I have fear and hopes.

Hope both side will come to their senses before it escalate further.

I have mostly fear it may turn ugly within in weeks to come.

If it does-There's nothing I can do about it and I have other things to worry about than what to stone age person are up to.

Oh maybe not the correct place but this is about China and most of you know about DCS Digital Combat Simulation-Some guys who call them self Grim Reapers have made a 4 part series(The first 4 at top)

Taiwan isn't on the DCS map. so they have used Cyprus as Taiwan

First part: Could Taiwan Survive An Aerial First Strike By China? (WarGames 1a)
Second part: Could Taiwan Survive A Second Strike By China? (WarGames 1b)
Third part: Could Taiwan Survive A Third Strike By China? (WarGames 1c)
Fourth part: Could Taiwan Survive A fourth Strike By China? (WarGames 1d)

I did not put up link to each of these video.

Markus

[Skybird]

There is an alternative attack scenario for China that surprisingly gets little talked about. Instead of frontally attacking it and trying to bomb it into oblivion or invade it across the strait of Taiwan, it could establish a maritime and aerial blockade around the island. That would make it impossible for the US to bring in weapon deliveries, no matter whether "strategic ambigouty" means that Washington plans to directly fight in a war, or just to sell arms and give intel support to Taiwan like it does with Ukraine now. Isolating and strangling the island's economy might be the thing to expect. It would economically suffocate Taiwan if no improts go in and no exports go mout.


For Europe, it would be crippling, and for the US being a majort economic impact event, too.