The CHN/ China thread

[Catfish]

A blockade of a sovereign state (whatever China thinks about this, or Russia about Crimea) is a declaration of war.
Ok I doubt Xi Jin Ping will make this a "peaceful reunion", but with all the products, dependencies and international trade going on with Taiwan, will the world just sit back and do nothing? :hmmm:

[Skybird]

It does not matter either if they attack Taiwan directly, or blockade it. The onyl quesiton is whzat brings China closer to its goal to getb Taiwan for the lower costs to its own forces.


Andf the world? The only foreogn forc ein the region capable to really do about it, is the US, not France, not Britain. Is it easier for the US to fight a bloackde or to prevent in vading troops carriers crossing the straits under heavy missile and aerial protection?


And then there will be those loonies arguing that a blockade is no war and that we should do nothing to provoke China.



If China finds it cheaper to strnagle Taiwian by bloackde, why wouldnt it do it? Note, most nations on the globe by now are ANTI-West, not pro-West. We now have the strongest anti-Western block in international politics there ever has been. Democrcies are in decline. Autocracies are on the rise. Existing democracies in the West increasingly are under attack from within. The old world order from twenty years ago or even just ten years ago, is no more.


And now we also have to deal with inflation that we have created ourselves. It still gets underestimated, its unbelievable.

[mapuc]

Was curious to know when Nancy Pelosi would land/visit Taiwan(Taipei)

Pelosi is expected to arrive at 10:20 p.m. local time via private plane at Songshan Airport, according to the Liberty Times, one of several media outlets linked to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s ruling party.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-02/pelosi-poised-to-visit-taiwan-as-china-threatens-military-action

That's about 2 hours from now...

Going to interesting to see if China will try to do something-Preventing the plane from landing, try to alter it's course.
Or nothing happens the plane lands and the visit take place-thereafter she leave the island and...and...nothing...but harsh words from China.

Markus

[Catfish]

I do not think China will shoot the plane down, but i guess there will be a lot of uproar and tension, and diplomatic porcelain crashed.
Other speakers have visited Taiwan before, so what the heck.

On the other hand is it really necessary in these times? Maybe first end one war, and the next already starting between Serbia and Kosovo, shooting and barricades and all that.
Somehow seeing Russia doing its thing all the world suddenly remembers old animosities, all seem to be on the war path.

[mapuc]

Who would have thought that someone created a livestream where you can follow at real time the plane Nancy Pelosi is on

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY0yUbCdAZw

Markus

[Catfish]

^ this is crazy :o
Really seeing it here on fr24 live.
I wonder what China is currently doing ..

[mapuc]

......nothing of interest happened..The plane landed without any problems. And tomorrow she will leave.

From China there will come some angry words-Maybe they will send some group of bombers and fighters towards Taiwan, Before the border they will turn 180 degree and return home.

China is not interested in escalating it.

Markus

[Skybird]

China has prepared huge military exercises with live firing in zones all around the island, encircling it from all directions.


What did I say about a blockade...

[mapuc]

I remember what you wrote about China creating a blockade around Taiwan.

Have hope this exercise will only be show of force-a warning as before.

Then we have this article and video in the article nd-tv
Where the headlines is US-China headed for showdown.

I see this as nothing as dramatization from the news channel

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/nancy-pelosis-taiwan-visit-videos-show-military-prep-build-up-in-china-amid-tension-with-taiwan-3217705

For once I hope I'm right

Markus

[Skybird]

I think if Bejing unleashes total war against Taiwan, or even tries to strangle it, it would be an allout assault on the global economy, and in principle it would be indeed a world war, necessarily: due to the vital and essential survival interests of national economies all around the globe.

Which means in reverse that in theory Taipehg shpoul.d be able to "blackmail" the West for m ilitary support and defence - due to the West'S very own vital interests.That especialyl Europe doe snot react to this, shows to things: once again the saddening military weakness and impotence of Europe, and due to the uinwillingness to really substantially change this: the intellectual deficit to indeed fully understand this. If you understand the consequences for sure, you CAN NOT carry on with ignoring them and do your things as if nothing happened, but when you keep on dpoing ignroing the danger, it shows that you have not really fully understand the scale of the threat.

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:

Should China really attack the chip stronghold Taiwan, the world economy would be threatened with disaster

Taiwan produces the world's best semiconductors and is an indispensable link in the global supply chain. Without companies on the island, hardly anything would work in areas such as electronic consumer goods, the automotive industry and the military. What is Nancy Pelosi risking with her visit?

The visit of the top representative of the U.S. Parliament to Taiwan exacerbates a decades-old crisis. Mainland China, which sees the island of Taiwan as a renegade province, is sending fighter planes and organizing shooting exercises in the sea around the island. Beijing is thus demonstrating its claim to power.

It is true that the Chinese regime is likely to refrain from attacking Taiwan precisely during Nancy Pelosi's visit. However, the current situation raises a question more urgent than ever before: What would happen if China actually attacked Taiwan, the world's most important chip stronghold?

But it has long been painted on the wall, by Xi Jinping himself. China's state and party leader said in January 2019 that he wants to force "reunification" with Taiwan by the People's Republic's 100th birthday, if necessary. That's 27 years from now.

For years now, Beijing has been ramping up pressure on Taipei with fighter jets in Taiwan's airspace, military drills, disinformation campaigns and threats against Taiwanese independence advocates. With Pelosi's visit, China's People's Liberation Army announced it will conduct at least six military exercises by the end of the week. The troops are expected to surround Taiwan and likely enter its territorial waters.

Besides the suffering a war would bring to the Taiwanese people, besides the security implications for the Asia-Pacific region and the geopolitical consequences for the rest of the world, the impact on global chip production would be catastrophic. "If this really happens, there will be a huge disruption in supply chains," an industry source, who asked not to be named, told NZZ a few months ago.

An analyst regarding semiconductors, who also wishes to remain unnamed, pointed to the global nature of the industry. According to the consulting firm Accenture, a chip product passes through a national border 70 times or more before it reaches the end customer. No country in the world can make chips on its own. But Taiwan is the place the rest of the world depends on most, dangerously so. The analyst said, "The industry is not prepared for regional tensions per se."

Taiwan's strength: TSMC and much more

What exactly is Taiwan's strength - and thus the rest of the world's dependence - based on? The short answer: Taiwan is home to the world's largest and third-largest contract manufacturers, TSMC and UMC. Further, the largest chip assembly and testing company, ASE, is also located in Taiwan. And the third largest manufacturer of wafers, the pizza-sized slices of silicon used to make chips, is also located on the island.
TSMC is clearly the largest contract manufacturer of chips

TSMC, written out as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, became known to a larger audience in the wake of the ongoing chip shortage. That's because TSMC is the undisputed largest chip contract manufacturer, with about 53 percent of the market, and the technological leader, ahead of South Korea's Samsung. Apple and Tesla, AMD and Nvidia - they all have their best chips produced at TSMC for smartphones, laptops, e-cars and graphics cards.

In addition, TSMC also produces less sophisticated chips in large quantities, for example for the automotive industry. Even proud chip manufacturers like Infineon from Munich dropped out of the expensive race for ever smaller, more powerful chips years ago. Infineon and Co. now order from TSMC and UMC.

When, as a result of misplanning and pandemic upheavals, German car factories ran out of chips and had to halt production, Germany's economy minister wrote a begging letter in February to the Taiwanese government, which officially does not even recognize Germany because of its One China policy. Other countries like Japan acted similarly. So strong, so uncomfortable is the global dependence on Taiwan's chip industry.

ASE, an unknown world market leader

Equally indispensable are the assembly and testing of chips. After all, the tiny silicon wafers do not function until they are assembled in packages and placed on circuit boards. ASE is the world market leader for such work, with a share of around 25 percent. The factories in the southern Taiwanese metropolis of Kaohsiung practically form an industrial area of their own.

In addition, there are many other such suppliers, so that Taiwanese companies - which, however, often produce cheaply in mainland China or elsewhere - cover more than half of global demand in this segment.

Even in a research-intensive field like chip design, where the U.S. is clearly number one, tiny Taiwan, with a population of just over 23 million, is strong and number two. Of the ten largest companies, six are from the USA, three from Taiwan, and in tenth place is one from Europe, according to an evaluation by the Berlin-based Stiftung Neue Verantwortung.

Finally - and this is less well known - Taiwan is an important location for substrates and laminates with which the silicon is coated. Many of these chemicals are not even produced in Europe in this quantity and purity. In Taiwan, however, European companies also produce. According to a spokeswoman, the German company BASF, for example, produces "chemicals for the highest requirements of the semiconductor industry, primarily to supply local customers in Taiwan" in Guanyin near Taipei.

In short, Taiwan is the most diverse chip stronghold in the world. Its strength comes from all the big companies, but much more from the unique density of this cluster, including many small, unknown suppliers. That's why the industry source mentioned said, "If you look at the processor chip market segment, from basic Intel x86 processors to high-end processors for smartphones, about 80 percent goes through Taiwan today." Corresponding industrial parks stretch from the north to the south of the island - on the west side facing China.

The "silicon shield"

This unique ecosystem also plays an important role in the question of a possible war. Journalist Craig Addison described the chip industry as Taiwan's "silicon shield" a good twenty years ago. Because Taipei's closest ally, the U.S., and ultimately all industrialized countries depend so heavily on TSMC and Co. economically and technologically that they will try to keep China from invading for that reason alone. The Taiwanese government knows this, of course, and is steadily strengthening the silicon shield, which has become a common word in Taiwan.

At the same time, China also remains very dependent on Taiwan's chip industry. How that affects the likelihood of war is debatable. Addison believed, as do some experts today, that China will not attack Taiwan because of this dependence. That's because an invasion could destroy key factories, among other things, including acts of sabotage by the Taiwanese; and highly specialized engineers, especially foreigners, would likely flee.

The American analysis firm IC Insights, however, recently came to the opposite conclusion: China could attack Taiwan precisely because of its chip industry. This is because China continues to lag several years behind technologically, despite billions in subsidies. The race to catch up is made more difficult by U.S. sanctions against the Chinese chip champions SMIC and Hisilicon, a Huawei subsidiary. By invading, IC Insights claims, China could hijack Taiwan's capabilities.

Foreigners continue to invest in Taiwan

Within the industry itself, these concrete considerations seem to play little role. A source at a semiconductor firm in Taiwan familiar with her employer's strategic risk management says a war scenario is too narrow. "The overarching scenario is the U.S.-China conflict. And then it's about what follows from that."

Semiconductor expert Jan-Peter Kleinhans of the New Responsibility Foundation reported a similar story from his research talks: "In politics, people talk about Taiwan all the time, but in industry, nobody talks about it unless I bring it up." Indeed, foreign chip suppliers continue to expand in Taiwan, such as Merck, a German manufacturer of specialty materials.

In general, any change in chip production takes a lot of lead time, so complex are the processes. McKinsey writes in an analysis that even the production of a well-established product requires four months of lead time. If the chips are to be produced in a different plant, an additional six months must be expected. And if you wanted to change manufacturers, you would have to adapt the chip design to their production processes - and add another year. All in all, that would be a lead time of 22 months.

Because of this complexity, the industry also speaks of a "lock-in" effect: Once you become a TSMC customer, your own products become increasingly intertwined with the manufacturer's processes. TSMC is cleverly promoting this effect by increasingly offering assembly and testing of chips itself over the past few years. An insider says: "TSMC is throwing a big vacuum cleaner to have all the know-how with it. The more know-how also of the customer is at TSMC, the less the customer will be inclined to leave TSMC."

TSMC plant in Dresden?

But at least some governments are already trying geographic diversification in chip production. To be sure, they would hardly cite the threat of war over Taiwan as a justification. But many arguments are at least related: national security, technological sovereignty, security of supply.

Governments are courting TSMC, of all things. The USA under Donald Trump, with more or less gentle pressure, was the first to obtain a commitment for a plant in May 2020. The fact that TSMC manufactures special chips for American fighter jets probably played a role in this. Japan was also recently able to persuade TSMC to open a plant in the country with high subsidies. In mainland China, TSMC is expanding its only non-Taiwanese site to date. Even in Europe, there are discussions about a possible TSMC plant, specifically in Dresden.

However, this is unlikely to weaken the global dependence on Taiwan, if only because TSMC wants to continue to operate the majority of its plants at home and produce its best chips there.

-----------------

Xi has ordered terrible mistakes in the Corona pandemic and has done monumental damage to China's economy. So, he is anything but infallible, which of course contradicts the offical propaganda describing his clan (thats what the Xi dynasty really is about: establishing the eternal and imperial tyranny of their family clan), and he is turnign into an old man. And we currently learn again in the ukraine and have learned often before what murderous barbary old tyrants at the end of their life are becoming capable of, when their scruples have petrified and their intellectual capacity diminishes.

Europe should be able to play a military and seginficant role in the defence of Taiwan. Unfortunately, once again and like in so many others international political issues, it isn't.

There will be a day when it dawns on us Europeans that once again we repeated the same old terrible mistakes we have committed already so often before. And I think that day is not too far away while we still live through the leanrign experience of such a day right now, over the ukriane experience. The war over Taiwan will come. And likely is that there will be a widening into or another war between the US and China over the dominant role in the Western and whole pacific. I just think the Us will shy away from getting fully enagged into war in exclsuzivbe defence of Taiwan, I think they will mroe try to handle it like they handle the Ukraine war. But late rin that war they maybe will reassess things and learn that this luxury they can no longer afford - for vital self-intertests. The lopnger Taiwan can resist to a Chinese attack, the more china will focus on destroying Taiwan as an economy, and the stronger the chance becomes that the US nevertheless enters the war in full at a later stage.

In both cases Europe has senetence ditself top the role of a helpless watcher and victim of consequences. Sorry, Brkitian, France: your forces in SE Asia simply are too small in quantity in the large scheme of things. even more so since naval battles are less likely to trigger or turn into escalating global nuclear exchanges.


In the end Xi is, like Putin, just an ordinary street criminal who abuses opportunity to plunder a country for his own clan's wealth.

[Jimbuna]

Top US Democrat Nancy Pelosi leaves Taiwan after meeting its President Tsai Ing-wen, despite warnings from China not to do so.

She praised Taiwan as an island of resilience and said the US commitment to democracy there was iron-clad.

China says it will hold a series of live-fire military drills in the air and sea around the island from Thursday.

Taiwan says the move violates the island's sovereignty and amounts to a blockade.

The US speaker's trip, which was not backed by President Biden, was the first by such a senior US official in 25 years.

Beijing sees self-ruled Taiwan - which lies 100 miles from the Chinese mainland - as a breakaway province that it aims to take.

[Jimbuna]

Pelosi visit: Taiwan puts the ball firmly in Xi Jinping's court

The danger with escalation is that it is hard to pull back.

Now that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has managed to visit Taiwan - the highest-ranking American official to do so in 25 years - won't others want to do the same in the future?

Now that China has held major live fire exercises of such a scale, so close to Taiwan, why not do that again? Each time Chinese fighter jets fly nearer to the island or in greater numbers, a new standard of "normality" is established. So, if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) doesn't fly as close next time, what message is it sending?

Not so long ago, Beijing's plan with Taiwan involved engagement. Young people from the mainland were backpacking around the breakaway province claimed by China, and businesses from Taiwan were popping up all over China.

However, the approach under Chinese President Xi Jinping has become much more belligerent, with ever more pressure being applied on Taipei.

Those with more militaristic tendencies in the upper echelons of power here must have secretly welcomed the visit by Ms Pelosi. It has provided an ideal excuse to ramp up the war games around Taiwan in preparation for what they see as the inevitable day when it will be seized by force.

The biggest challenge perhaps for regional stability is that everyone's public position on Taiwan is ridiculous. It's like a giant game of pretend which is becoming harder to maintain.

China pretends that Taiwan is currently part of its territory, even though the island collects its own taxes, votes in its own government, issues its own passports and has its own military.

The US pretends it is not treating Taiwan as an independent country, even though it sells it high-tech weapons and, occasionally, a high-ranking politician visits on what looks very much like an official trip.

It's apparent that it would take nothing for this flimsy show, designed to guarantee the status quo, to fall apart.

The danger for the world is that there are those in Beijing who would like to see it fall apart.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62402935

Read the full article via the link, it is interesting, well written and imho balanced.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EBCzEA--Ts

[mapuc]

Hasn't it been tension before ?
Seems to recall some tension a couple of years back.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

The Taiwan Straits Crises: 1954–55 and 1958

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/taiwan-strait-crises

[mapuc]

Thank you Jim- So it has been from my historical memory I got it from.

And not to something off topic and still related to Taiwan

Some guys who call them self Grim Reapers has made a what-if video based on the game DCS

"Could Pelosi's Jet Be Protected From Chinese Interceptors When Leaving Taiwan?"

I removed the video-Not going to much off topic.

Markus

[Catfish]

No limits is a misunderstanding :03:

"China’s ambassador to the United States on Wednesday attempted to walk back his country’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership with Russia, suggesting there’s been a “misunderstanding” of China-Russia relations amid Moscow's assault on Ukraine."

“This is a misunderstanding of China-Russia relations,” Ambassador Qin Gang said. “China-Russia relationship is not an alliance.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinas-ambassador-tries-to-cast-e2-80-98no-limits-e2-80-99-with-russia-as-a-e2-80-98misunderstanding-e2-80-99/ar-AAZNtqF

[Skybird]

Somewhat entertaining at least.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYfvm-JLhPQ

[Jimbuna]

China has launched several ballistic missiles into waters around Taiwan's north-east and south-west coasts, Taiwan says.

The launches are part of live fire military drills - China's biggest-ever in the region - around the island.

This follows top US Democrat Nancy Pelosi's controversial visit to Taipei in the face of warnings from Beijing.

Some of the affected areas are just 12 miles (19km) off the island - the closest Beijing's military exercises have ever come.

Taiwan says the move, which stops ships and planes from using the space, violates its sovereignty and amounts to a blockade.

China sees self-ruled Taiwan - which lies 100 miles from the mainland - as a breakaway province that will eventually be under its control.

This comes at a time when US-China tensions have been growing.

[Jimbuna]

No limits is a misunderstanding :03:

"China’s ambassador to the United States on Wednesday attempted to walk back his country’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership with Russia, suggesting there’s been a “misunderstanding” of China-Russia relations amid Moscow's assault on Ukraine."

“This is a misunderstanding of China-Russia relations,” Ambassador Qin Gang said. “China-Russia relationship is not an alliance.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinas-ambassador-tries-to-cast-e2-80-98no-limits-e2-80-99-with-russia-as-a-e2-80-98misunderstanding-e2-80-99/ar-AAZNtqF

Making efforts to distance themselves from a pariah no doubt.

China's achilles' heel being there dependency on trade with the west.

[mapuc]

"There is no justification for this extreme, disproportionate and escalatory military response," Blinken said, speaking at a news conference during the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Cambodia. He added, "now, they've taken dangerous acts to a new level".

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-premier-evil-neighbour-next-door-is-showing-off-her-power-our-door-2022-08-05/

Would it be consider an act of war if one of these ballistic missiles hit Taiwan ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Would you consider it an attack if I push a knife into your leg while yelling and shouting at you?

[mapuc]

Would you consider it an attack if I push a knife into your leg while yelling and shouting at you?

I understand what you mean..If one these ballistic fall down.

The question is will Taiwan protest or do the same send a ballistic into China as a revenge.

Markus

[Skybird]

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/tank-man_ts/28578566/1-format1007.jpg

[Gorpet]

If you have 30 mins or so, I think every citizen of a so Called Democratic Countries and all their young children should watch this piece of history before you jump on the American Bandwagon of Retirees that are currently in charge of the Nuclear Button. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6sCsOdqXQw&t=1668s

[Gorpet]

Yes we will,But the population of the world will suffer from the decisions of those who who will not miss a meal, never go without A/C or worry about the cost of petrol. Hell they have the best medical plans on this planet anywhere they go. And their mode of transportation "Private Jets" Pollute the atmosphere more than my 2019 Toyota 4 cylinder that has passed California emission control. And their emission controls are stringent and simple.A government employee sticks their nose in your exhaust pipe for 10 min. If they don't pass out, the car is good to go. Now i just turn the ignition key off. It saves lives.

Well hell that turned into a pro 4 cylinder story, Ya can't get any cheaper and cleaner than that. Any way when the Politician takes a cut in their pay and release their stock market choices and tell me based on what i have payed in all my WORKING LIFE i'm getting a raise by $3000.00 a month i will not care who they go to war with. Just don't mess with my Toyota.

[Skybird]

You, like everybody else, will not be able to afford not caring for the outcome of the Taiwan war.
And beside the global importance of their semiconductor industry, here are 23 million people who have any right a naturally born human can have to decide all by themselves whether they want to be enslaved and owned by the slaveholder party of the chinese emperor. And that free decision trumps all the historical mumbo jumbo. Like I said before about Catalonia, Basques, the Irish and Scots, anyone: the population living in the region is no property of others, and if they say they want not to be governed by a foreign distant regime, tbat rdgime has already run out of valid arguments and has no moral right whatever to subjugate this population to its will.


The relevance of taiwan dwarfens the role of russian gas for europe, easily.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-8WUxtjyQM

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GwwAhjZO8Y

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Qxdm-kGu-A

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrLletZ37Dg

[mapuc]

Since I don't like war I decide to trust what some of the expert have said in the news here in Denmark and Sweden.

China is in no interest of a war with Taiwan/USA

In a about a week from now-Everything will have calmed down again.

Markus

[Reece]

Have to see that to believe that Markus!! :k_confused:

[Buddahaid]

Since I don't like war I decide to trust what some of the expert have said in the news here in Denmark and Sweden.

China is in no interest of a war with Taiwan/USA

In a about a week from now-Everything will have calmed down again.

Markus

I agree. It's just cold war posturing.

[Skybird]

Ukraine war also started with manouvers.

Nothing is certain these says anymore. And the Chinese look more and more irrational to me. Like all all fanatics.


Everything needs to be expected. For Taiwans pilots, the constNt alarms must be exhausting. And china effectively is in a position to blockade the island.

[mapuc]

I agree. It's just cold war posturing.

Then today this was served to my breakfast


Ambassador: China will not rule out armed conflict with the US over Taiwan
China's ambassador to Denmark says that China will use all necessary means to achieve its goal of reunification with Taiwan.

It is inevitable that Taiwan will eventually be "reunified with the mainland", and China is willing to use any means necessary to make it happen - even if it means a war with the United States.

This is what China's ambassador to Denmark, Feng Tie, says in an interview with Deadline on DR2.

- One thing is certain: Taiwan will be reunited with Mainland China. Taiwan is China's Taiwan. Taiwan is part of China, and the issue of Taiwan is China's internal matter, he says.

- We will achieve our goal of reunification, and we will do our utmost to ensure that it happens peacefully. But we do not refrain from the use of force, and we will use all necessary means to achieve our goals.

Since Thursday, China has carried out a large-scale military exercise near Taiwan, where, among other things, they have launched ballistic missiles across the Taiwan Strait and simulated an attack on Taiwan.

The military exercise was initiated as a response to the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States, Nancy Pelosi, visiting Taiwan last week.

Pelosi is the most senior politician from the United States to visit the island in 25 years, and her visit has angered the government in Beijing, which believes Taiwan belongs to China.

The start of a third world war?
US President Joe Biden has stated on several occasions that the US is willing to get involved militarily if necessary to defend Taiwan if the island is attacked by China.

And Feng Tie does not deny that China is willing to enter into an armed conflict with the United States in order for Taiwan to become an integral part of China.

- Of course we will not rule out the possibility of using military force, we will use all the necessary means, he says.

It will lead to a third world war?

- The process of reunification is irreversible. We will do our best to achieve it peacefully, but we will not rule out the possibility of using military force, says Feng Tie.

Not even if it will lead to a third world war?

- Those are your words and not mine. I say that we will do everything to ensure that it happens peacefully, but we will not rule out the use of military force.

'Taiwan is China's territory'
China does not consider Taiwan to be an independent state, but rather a part of China.

- Taiwan is not a state, but a Chinese province – there is only one China, and Taiwan is part of China, says Feng Tie.

Therefore, he also believes that China was within their rights to initiate the large-scale military exercise after Pelosi's visit last week.

- China warned the US several times about the consequences of this visit, but the warnings were ignored and the meeting was carried out. Because of that provocation, China was forced to respond resolutely, he says.

How is it proportionate to conduct military exercises in response to a peaceful, diplomatic meeting?

- Because the US violates its obligations - do not forget that Taiwan is part of China and is China's territory. Therefore, it is fully legitimate for China to conduct military exercises off Taiwan, says Feng Tie.



I don't know how to interpreter his answers in this interview with the Danish News channel TV-Avisen.= TV-Newspaper

Markus

[Skybird]

There is no need to "interpret" anything. The writing is on the wall, in bold capital letters, and best advise is to take them by their word. They mean what they say.


The bonly qussiton is: are we, is the the US willing to wage a major war over Taiwan, yes or no. If the answer is yes, the outocme is open at best., If the answer is no, China will sooner or later gain a major tool to take hostage the world economy and we will deopend on them as much as Germany now depends on Russian gas.



That is unacceptable, and nhats why I think war is inevitable. Question is whether the US sees it this way, too. I have doubts.



Often things are not complicated at all - but it takes man some more time to admit he already realised the unwelcomed consequences. That what all the weaseling and indifference is about. They call that optimism. I call it brain damage that increases the costs.

[mapuc]

There is no need to "interpret" anything. The writing is on the wall, in bold capital letters, and best advise is to take them by their word. They mean what they say.


The bonly qussiton is: are we, is the the US willing to wage a major war over Taiwan, yes or no. If the answer is yes, the outocme is open at best., If the answer is no, China will sooner or later gain a major tool to take hostage the world economy and we will deopend on them as much as Germany now depends on Russian gas.



That is unacceptable, and nhats why I think war is inevitable. Question is whether the US sees it this way, too. I have doubts.



Often things are not complicated at all - but it takes man some more time to admit he already realised the unwelcomed consequences. That what all the weaseling and indifference is about. They call that optimism. I call it brain damage that increases the costs.

As I understand what he said in this interview is that China's main goal is to take over Taiwan in peaceful steps, but they are not afraid to use force even if it means war with USA and WWIII(Which in fact started when Russia invaded Ukraine-That's another story in another thread)

The problem here is that Taiwan aren't interested in being a part of China not now and not later.

Markus

[Skybird]

The funny part is that just a few decades ago, the roles were reverse. It were Taiwan's Chiang Kai-Shek who claimed all of China for Taiwan.



China'S Xi nowadays does away with the old icon o the Communist reovlution in China, Mao, who had installed the rule that no leader shall ever have more than two terms at the helmn of the state. He not only wants a third term - he wants it for life, and an inherited transfer of power to members of his family. If you are optimistic you can call this an imperial dynasty order. If you are realistic, you call it what Russia also is: a mobster's personal enrichment Mafia paradise with an attached slaughterhouse and brain surgery center for disagreeable ethnic groups.

[Onkel Neal]

So, in response to Pelosi's visit, China is holding military exercises that literally surround the island...wouldn't it be something if the exercises suddenly turned into the real thing?

[Skybird]

It could very well turn into a lasting blockad, which it de facto almost already is. If I recall it corretcly we have had than two deacdes ago or, an dit lasted for months. But my memory is no certain there.



Right now it also is about exhausting the Taiwanese servicemen, namely their fighter pilots. The must run multiple times as many launches than their continental foes who enjoy the luxury of much higher numbers and regeneration inbetween.



Psycho games. And they do cost mental and physical power, it is inevitable.

[mapuc]

Do you agree in this analysis ?

China's military exercises show Beijing doesn't need to invade Taiwan to control it -- rather it can strangle the self-ruled island, cutting it off from the outside world, Chinese and American analysts say.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/asia/china-taiwan-military-exercises-what-we-learned-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

Markus

[Skybird]

Its a realistic view.

[Jimbuna]

So, in response to Pelosi's visit, China is holding military exercises that literally surround the island...wouldn't it be something if the exercises suddenly turned into the real thing?

And oh so funnily enough they have announced said exercises will last for a month. Plenty of time to amass whatever they feel appropriate imho.

[Gorpet]

You, like everybody else, will not be able to afford not caring for the outcome of the Taiwan war.
And beside the global importance of their semiconductor industry, here are 23 million people who have any right a naturally born human can have to decide all by themselves whether they want to be enslaved and owned by the slaveholder party of the chinese emperor. And that free decision trumps all the historical mumbo jumbo. Like I said before about Catalonia, Basques, the Irish and Scots, anyone: the population living in the region is no property of others, and if they say they want not to be governed by a foreign distant regime, tbat rdgime has already run out of valid arguments and has no moral right whatever to subjugate this population to its will.


The relevance of taiwan dwarfens the role of russian gas for europe, easily.

So when can we expect the German Navy to show up?

[Gorpet]

Ukraine war also started with manouvers.

Nothing is certain these says anymore. And the Chinese look more and more irrational to me. Like all all fanatics.


Everything needs to be expected. For Taiwans pilots, the constNt alarms must be exhausting. And china effectively is in a position to blockade the island.

Where is the German Navy and the German Army and Air Force.If you can't put steel and human bodies in large numbers.Then maybe you should set back with zippered lips.And let the American Democrat Party of retirees start and run the wars.

[Jimbuna]

US politician Nancy Pelosi's visit has set off fresh tensions between self-ruled Taiwan and China, which claims the island as part of its territory. BBC correspondents weigh in on the significance of China's main response - its live-fire military drills around the island - and how the two sides see them.

https://www.bbc.com/news/62460809

[Jimbuna]

China says it has completed nearly a week of military drills around Taiwan following a visit to the self-governing island by US politician Nancy Pelosi.

Sea and air operations were successful, said China's military, which vowed to keep patrolling the Taiwan Strait.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-62492350

[mapuc]

If someone should be interested.

https://english.news.cn/20220810/df9d3b8702154b34bbf1d451b99bf64a/c.html

Markus

[Catfish]

I'm not.
"People's Republic" is already a lie.
Case closed.

[mapuc]

I'm not.
"People's Republic" is already a lie.
Case closed.

You are absolutely right the sentence People's Republic is a contradiction

However the text show that China is finally preparing to take Taiwan.

Best time is in Oct.

Markus

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


It cannot be overlooked that the Chinese leadership simulated an attack on Taiwan with its large-scale military maneuvers in the air, at sea and in cyberspace. The exercise of encircling the breakaway island had been prepared for a long time and was well organized, attracting worldwide attention. The question is what Xi Jinping intended by this beyond testing military capabilities with both domestic and international audiences.

The extent of the warnings and intimidation issued by Beijing in the run-up to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which had been announced since the spring, was unprecedented in the history of Chinese diplomacy. Nevertheless, Pelosi was not impressed and completed her visit with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. This came just three months before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, undoubtedly tarnishing Xi Jinping's image as his country's "great leader."

There is a lot at stake for Xi Jinping as he seeks to be elected leader for a longer period at the congress in the Great Hall of the People. For one thing, he must fear for his reputation within the party. Criticism of his policies was circulating internally even before Pelosi's visit, both in foreign policy and in economic policy. Now the flying visit by the high-ranking American threatens to torpedo his plan for a third term as party leader.

Second, he must withstand the harsh judgment of the many "patriotic" Chinese. After decades of brainwashing, the majority of mainland Chinese, especially the younger generation, are accustomed to taking a radical stance, at least verbally, toward Taiwan's "independence drive."

Thanks to intensified military exercises as well as some economic measures to "punish" Taiwan and the United States, Xi Jinping has apparently succeeded in consolidating his position. At least internally, he can claim to have given a "timely and strong response" to the "provocation" of Pelosi and the Taiwanese government. However, this does not change the fact that his foreign policy and economic track record is poor. With his invasion of Ukraine, best friend Vladimir Putin has become a problem case, and the zero-covide policy, with its associated disruptions, has caused the Chinese economic engine to stutter badly.

Furthermore, the war games over Taiwan were aimed at signaling to the Taiwanese government that Beijing, not Washington, is master of the Taiwan Strait and that America is incapable of effectively protecting the island nation militarily. Indeed, the military exercise appears to prove that China's People's Liberation Army is quite capable of controlling access to the island and imposing a comprehensive blockade. Since the 2015 military reform, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) considers itself capable of conducting integrated operations and forcing reunification by force.

Beijing has also been able to express its anger unimpeded because Taipei has been extremely restrained. Being forced to remain passive was de facto humiliating for the Taiwanese government. Not only were the six training areas right under Taiwan's nose, but a Chinese warship came within ten kilometers of the coast, and of the eleven East Wind missiles fired by the Chinese Air Force on August 4, four flew across the island. This maneuver was clearly intended as a mockery of Taiwan's sovereignty. It should get used to maneuvers of such caliber in the future.

Of course, the U.S. was also the addressee. In the Taiwan Strait, the signal went, China has the locational advantage. The Chinese People's Army's ever-improving military and technological equipment and its ability to wage coordinated warfare give China the upper hand militarily. Even the feared U.S. aircraft carriers no longer have a deterrent effect.

From Xi Jinping's perspective, all three goals have been achieved. And of course he is well aware of the side effects of his military show of force. Taiwan, for example, as an exemplary democratic system, has probably never attracted so much global attention and sympathy as it has these days. Beijing's reputation in the surrounding countries, especially in Japan and South Korea, has suffered greatly. In addition, the startled West is mentally preparing for a possible Taiwan war and wondering what it can do to prevent it.
Although military exercises have not officially ended, Beijing is unlikely to make any more aggressive military moves, at least this year. Beijing must create a geopolitical environment in which China remains the authoritative link in global supply chains and an important location for foreign investment. Xi himself is aware of the domestic political and economic frictions that largely accompany his "zero covid" policy. It is therefore even conceivable that China will withdraw individual sanctions against Taiwan and the USA. What is at stake is the favor of the world public, but also the smooth running of the 20th Party Congress.

Either way, the military exercise has made clear that Xi Jinping has a script in mind for reunifying the two Chinas. Xi has repeatedly stressed that "resolving the Taiwan issue and fully reunifying China are a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China."

His predecessors also had in mind to fulfill this historic mission at some point, but Xi Jinping is focusing on urgency. He wants to realize the mission during his term as part of the national renaissance, but also as part of his own ambition. It is no coincidence that the pop song "I want to go to Taiwan in 2035" stormed the charts in China. But the current "Taiwan Blockade" military exercise is also a demonstration of this determination.

In retrospect, it is an exaggeration to hold Nancy Pelosi personally responsible for all the turmoil. After all, even without her visit, such military maneuvers would have taken place sooner or later. Pelosi's solidarity visit to Taipei provided Beijing with a suitable "justification" for this. After all, an exercise of this complexity and magnitude cannot be planned in a week or two. The PLA had been preparing for the maneuver long before Pelosi's travel plans.

Even though things will become quieter again around Taiwan, the time will come when the question of reunification could lead to the dreaded major conflict. UN Resolution 2758, which in 1971 recognized the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of the Chinese people, already contains procedural provisions. However, it does not address important details: should Taiwan become a province of the People's Republic as a matter of course on the premise of a single China? Another shortcoming of the resolution is that it does not answer the question of how to deal with the de facto existence of two separate and independent state entities within the framework of "one China." If there is to be reunification, how is it to be accomplished?

As long as these questions remain unresolved, military conflict in the Taiwan Strait is inevitable. As it stands, the UN is incapable of resolving the problem. Moreover, a consensus between China and Taiwan is completely unthinkable at present. Then the growing sense of responsibility of the West, above all the United States, for the democratic island state inevitably leads to an increase in tensions between Taiwan and China. The whole thing is fueled by the decidedly opposing characters and values of Xi Jinping and Tsai Ing-wen.

The only question then is what form the conflict will take: Will the situation result in a military-economic stalemate, or will there be a violent reconquest, i.e., an all-out war?

It is misleading to believe that Xi Jinping's position is currently already so weakened that the 20th Party Congress will not only be a flop for him, but that he could even be voted out of office. On the contrary, the military buildup around Taiwan has strengthened his power.

In the coming years, the following trends will become the new normal: Taiwan under Tsai Ing-wen will continue to make efforts to achieve diplomatic breakthroughs in the international arena, and more personalities and organizations from the Western camp will pay their respects to Taipei. Such constant visiting traffic will put a strain on Xi Jinping's nerves. China has therefore already begun to warn Europe about it - a trip by EU parliamentarians to Taiwan is due soon.

The major Chinese military exercise, in turn, has significantly altered the security status quo, as PLA ships and aircraft will henceforth routinely train east of the previously respected centerline in the Strait. Vessels disguised as fishing boats or drones will also pierce this boundary more frequently. And Taiwanese authorities will be scratching their heads over how to respond.


In the medium term, foreign investors still have a few years to be active in China, spared from the war. But the time bomb of a full-scale conflict with Taiwan will explode during Xi's term. The world should be prepared for that.

Junhua Zhang, born in Shanghai in 1958, is a senior associate at the European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS).

--------

A blockade and economic strangling, or a war - the conflict will come, it is inevitable. The only question is to what degree the West then has freed itself from the dependency regarding taiwanese microchip production - or, with dollar-signs in the eyes, refused to accept realities and stuck its head into the sand and did nothign but feeding illusions and did more business as usual to raise more short-sighted "profits". When China takes over Taiwan and we still hang on the drip of Taiwanese chips, we can say good-night.

Time to learn from the terrible mistakes we made with Russian energy. We must learn fast. Super-fast - time is running out.

[Catfish]

I wonder what human dictators think about how old they get.
Whatever they do the greatest king will be forgotten by history at some point.
"Know when to stop" (from the Handbook for dictators by Pierre J., published 2118)

[Jimbuna]

@Sky

My question to Xi Jinping would be..."Having seen the economic sanctions Russia are currently facing are you prepared to face identical measures"?

[Jimbuna]

This is provocation toward China surely.

Congress team follows Pelosi with second high-level visit in a month.

A US congressional delegation has arrived for an unannounced visit to Taiwan, 12 days after a tour of the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Five members of Congress will visit until Monday, said Washington's de-facto embassy in the capital Taipei.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62541750

[mapuc]

As I see it every politician who wants to visit Taiwan should have the right to do so.

However. With the knowledge on how the Chinese react when some high ranked politician visit Taiwan-One could get the impression USA is seeking a showdown with China.

Markus

[Skybird]

@Sky

My question to Xi Jinping would be..."Having seen the economic sanctions Russia are currently facing are you prepared to face identical measures"?
I know nobody has ever seen him laughing - but he would.


Russia and china cannot be compared.



With the sanctiosn against Russia, we have not so much shot poursleves in the foot, more into our head. Noiw repeatign that joke with China?


YOU CANNOT SANCTION AUTOCRATIC NATIONS AND ECONOMY'S THE SIZE OF RUSSIA OR CHINA. Has never worked never will work.



Never before in history has the West faced such a strong anti-Western international union, as today. And that goes far beyond Russia and China.



Wanting to impose economic sanctions cannot compensate for hard power (military strength). Mike Tyson told us why: "Everyone has a clever plan until someone comes along and punches them in the face." You cannot put it any better.

[Skybird]

As I see it every politician who wants to visit Taiwan should have the right to do so.

However. With the knowledge on how the Chinese react when some high ranked politician visit Taiwan-One could get the impression USA is seeking a showdown with China.

Markus
Its insisting on what is legal and right. The will to escalate lies in Bejing.

I have the impression that the Chinese think the American carriers - the prime weapon of the US navy - are no longer a credible threat to them. Such self-confidence must have have a material correlation. I read the US wants to sail a carrier group through the street of Taiwan. Why a carrier? I do not rule out that they get pearl-harboured again. And this time they will not be able to industrially outperform the enemy later on, industrially.

The times for this kind of careless behaviour are over, China is no military dwarf anymore. Sent a conventional flotilla to cruise in the strait of Taiwan. But not carriers. That simply is stupid. You do not present your trump cards to the enemy in this way. He might be too tempted as if he could resist any longer. Starting a war with the US navy with having taken one carrier group already out in the beginning is tempting. Very.


The whole "One China, tow systems" policy was a comfortabe lie, always. Its total nonsense.

[mapuc]

Its insisting on what is legal and right. The will to escalate lies in Bejing.



I hav the impression that the Chiense think the American carriers - the prime weapon of the US navy - are no longer a credible threat to them. Such self-confidence must have reasons. I read the US wants to sail a carrier group through the street of Taiwan. Why a carrier? I do not rule out that they get pearl-harboured again. And this time they will not be able to industrially outperform the enemy later on, industrially.


The times for this kind of careless behaviour are over, China is ni military dwarf anymore. Sent a conventional flotilla to cruise in the strait of Taiwan. But not carriers. Thats simply is stupid. You do not present your trump cards to the enemy in this way. He might be too tempted as if he could resist any longer. Starting a war with the US navy with having taken one carrier group already out in the beginning is tempting. Very.

Of course the will to escalate lay in the hand of the Chinese.
burde me I didn't think that way..

One thing do I know China couldn't care less about USA. If China wants to invade Taiwan they will do so.

Edit
The Chinese do care about the American military-Only an unwise would see them self as superior.
They will however take Taiwan when they feel for it
End edit

Markus

[Rockstar]

This is provocation toward China surely.

Oh pshaw, move along, nothing to see here. :03:

But ya, considering their economy is in steep decline, there are reports of a run on banks, revolt, mass protests, and the commonly held view on the mainland that no Chinese leader could remain in power if he allowed Taiwan to separate from the PRC. Things seem to be teetering on the edge over there and these visits are most likely an attempt to give it that little extra push. But damn, I could certainly think of better ways to do it that wouldn’t involve the potential for visiting dignitaries getting shot out of the sky.

[Jimbuna]

China has announced more military drills around Taiwan as a number of US politicians visited the island nation.

https://news.sky.com/story/china-announces-new-military-drills-as-more-us-politicians-visit-taiwan-12673726

[Skybird]

By the end of the story it comes down to whether the US will wage war over Taiwan or not. If not, all these politicians will look very silly.



Symbolic acts. :roll: I never was impressed or interested, and never will be.

[Jimbuna]

Me neither.

[mapuc]

I'm interested in the military strategy.

It's not a question if but when Xi gives the order.

Would China as a preemptively precaution attack American bases before they launch an all-out attack on Taiwan.

I do not know how China think mentally when it comes to the military-I doubt they would do it-Cause it would drag USA into the war.

On the other hand China can't be sure USA will stay out of it and only support Taiwan as they do with Ukraine-With the only difference-Taiwan will get long range rockets and ballistic missile.

Markus

[Skybird]

If they think the US is not bluffing but will fight over Taiwan, the war will see early and maybe even will open with strikes on Okinawa and Diega Garcia as well as - if possible - attempts to kill the carrier battle groups. Everythign else would be madness, you cannot go to war with the US Navy and Air Force and then leave the initiative to them, thats stupid, the USN and USAF is too dagerous for that. To what degree they also strike bases in the Phillipines and Australia remaisn to be seen. That they also go at South Korea early I am not so certain of because SK is balancing between China and the US and avoids to openly confront China diplomatically - China may hope to keep SK out of the war and have NK as a threat that SK must focus on to contain.



Or they strangle Taiwan by blockading it completely, leaving it to the US to try to break the blockade - which necessarily then would take place on the playing field of China'S choosing: the Taiwan strait and the waters around Taiwan and so putting every American unit going there into harms way. And this harm is not fangs and claws, but missiles, missiles, and more missiles. Sea-launched. Land-launched. Air launched. Big missiles, medium missiles, very big missiles. Carrier sinking missiles. In quantities that the US logistics chains to Taiwan could not compete with.



How American submarines can do close to Taiwan, remains to be seen, too. Too many dogs are every rabbit's death, and the Americans would be seriously outnumbered by pretty much evertyhing. Also, the waters close to the continental coast are shallow.



Nobody seems to want to hear it int he west, butr I must say: as I see it, on the military side everything speaks against America in such a war. Its lines are overstretched, its forces too few, its stockpiled quanitiesa ins mmart ammo - like in every nation - too small. And China is not a technologically inferior foe. Supply lines of Chinese units in the zone around Taiwan: 100-250 km. American supply lines - well... That means Chinese units will spend much more time in combat than American units, adding to the numerical advantages.



China has the choice. By how they hold their exercises right now, I assume it will be the second option: blockade. And maybe they just deceive us to think so. Or Xi is as insane as so many other autocrats before him, and does something against the military advice of his admirals.

[mapuc]

Been thinking and came to conclusion he's right a military and a civilian blockade of Taiwan would be better.

A war would cost millions of military and civilian life.

Then the question popped up-For how long will such a blockade be before....

Markus

[Skybird]

Taiwan is heavily depending on the import of energy and ressources. And cannot hope to break a blockade without help by the US.

[Jimbuna]

Taiwan is heavily depending on the import of energy and ressources. And cannot hope to break a blockade without help by the US.

Yep, a Chinese blockade would be the most sensible option because all alternatives would be potentially astronomical in terms of finance and human cost.

[Skybird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Al_zJc2r4ro


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNZ0so0LCoM



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEUDmgAHlGI

[Jimbuna]

China's decision to fire missiles over Taiwan must be contested, a top US military commander has said.

Seventh Fleet commander Vice Admiral Karl Thomas said otherwise such action by China would become the norm, calling it "a gorilla in the room".

Beijing held military drills around the self-governing island earlier this month but did not confirm if any missiles passed directly over it.

Tensions soared after US politician Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August.

Her high-profile visit infuriated Beijing, which claims the self-ruled island as part of its territory.

Tuesday's comments by Vice Admiral Thomas are significant, Based in Yokosuka, Japan, the Seventh Fleet is the largest forward-­deployed fleet in the US Navy, with some 50 to 70 vessels and submarines - and is a key part of its military presence in the region.

"It's very important that we contest this type of thing. I know that the gorilla in the room is launching missiles over Taiwan," Vice Admiral Thomas told reporters in Singapore. "It's irresponsible to launch missiles over Taiwan into international waters.

"If you don't challenge it... all of a sudden it can become just like the islands in the South China Sea [that] have now become military outposts. They now are full functioning military outposts that have missiles on them, large runways, hangers, radars, listening posts."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62560527

[mapuc]

Each time some politicians from the US visit Taiwan China gets angry-Why not make them go totally bananas by Biden pays Taiwan a visit hehe.

Markus

[Reece]

Some sort of result guaranteed!! :D

[Jimbuna]

China compares Taiwan crisis to if ‘Scotland split itself from the UK’

China has criticised remarks by the British foreign secretary on the conflict between Beijing and Taiwan, and asked if the UK would remain calm if Scotland were to split from the United Kingdom.

In a briefing on Thursday in Beijing, foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin was asked about Liz Truss’s comments condemning China for escalating tensions in the region.

[mapuc]

In this comment
https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2823146&postcount=314

I wrote:
"Would China as a preemptively precaution attack American bases before they launch an all-out attack on Taiwan."

And some minutes ago I get a notification about a yt video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4krltcsNAw

Edit
This 57 minute long video clip is a kind of a war game.
End edit

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TCmaYqlsck

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD7Ml6EJDfU

[mapuc]

These guys from Grim Reapers has made another war game scenarios

Is The US 7th Fleet Vulnerable To Chinese Anti-Ship Strike Near Taiwan?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IArGM0m9Fpk


It's nothing but a wargame all though it's isn't exactly tactical correct.

Chinese would not attack this way.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_xeTm98H9Q

[Skybird]

From The Economist:

Danger ahead: How the crisis over Taiwan will change US-China relations

In january 1950, three months after the Communist victory in China’s civil war, President Harry Truman issued a statement. America, he declared, would not intervene militarily to help China’s defeated Nationalists, who had fled to the island of Taiwan. Mao Zedong was already preparing an invasion and probably would have succeeded had the Korean war not erupted in June that year. The conflict prompted Truman to change tack, backing South Korea and ordering the Seventh Fleet to defend Taiwan in a bid to halt the spread of communism in Asia. Four years later, when Chinese forces attacked some of Taiwan’s outlying islands, American officials threatened nuclear strikes on China, forcing Mao to back down again.

With hindsight, that was the first in a succession of military showdowns over Taiwan that have defined Sino-American relations and had consequences for the world beyond. Seven decades later the fourth such crisis is unfolding, this time triggered by a visit to Taiwan from the speaker of America’s House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, on August 2nd and 3rd. Ms Pelosi was the most senior American politician to visit the island, which China still claims, since one of her predecessors, Newt Gingrich, went in 1997. Although the crisis is far from over, it already looks set to usher in a dangerous new era of hostility between China and America.

Ms Pelosi’s visit was a “manic, irresponsible and highly irrational” act, declared China. Its diplomats accused America of violating commitments it made when it first recognised the People’s Republic of China (prc) in 1979. Since Ms Pelosi left Taiwan, China has fired ballistic missiles over the island for the first time, sent military ships and aircraft across the median line of the Taiwan Strait in record numbers, and conducted live-fire drills encircling the island in a rehearsal for a blockade. China has also imposed economic sanctions on Taiwan and cut military and other co-operation with America.

So far China’s response appears calibrated to advertise its profound displeasure and newfound capabilities, while stopping well short of war. Yet these are probably just the opening salvoes. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, appears keen to avoid a direct military confrontation with America. At the same time, he cannot appear timid, having styled himself as a strongman and promised progress towards reunification. On Chinese social media, rabble-rousers are already outraged that China did not shoot down Ms Pelosi’s plane. The stakes for Mr Xi are especially high in the run-up to a Communist Party congress later this year, when he is expected to secure a third five-year term as party leader, violating recent norms.

China’s countermeasures are thus likely to play out on many fronts, over weeks, months or years. They will probably include more economic sanctions targeting Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party. There will surely be efforts to deter other foreign politicians from visiting the island, and to woo the last dozen or so countries that have diplomatic ties to Taiwan. Most importantly, though, China is likely to try to establish a “new normal” of military activities around Taiwan, including regular forays into waters and airspace that the island claims and, possibly, further missile tests over the island. China’s Eastern Theatre Command, which conducted the latest drills, said on August 10th that it had completed “various tasks” in the exercises but would continue to monitor the Taiwan Strait closely and conduct regular combat-readiness patrols there.

Where things go from here will partly depend on what America and its allies do to help Taiwan. America has shown restraint so far but has pledged to resume regular military operations in the area, including transits through the Taiwan Strait. It will probably provide more training and weapons to Taiwan. Some foresee a cycle of action and reaction, with increased risks of accidents and miscalculations. “Historians may very well look back at the summer of 2022 as the moment when us-China relations shifted from competition for relative advantage to overt confrontation, with a much greater risk of crises and escalation,” says Taylor Fravel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Pelosi plays with fire

The fourth Taiwan Strait crisis began in April, with reports that Ms Pelosi would visit the island. A critic of China’s human-rights record, she no doubt had her legacy in mind: at 82, she is probably in her last term as speaker. A bout of covid-19 delayed her visit. When asked about the trip in July, President Joe Biden said military officials thought it was “not a good idea right now”. A few days later Mr Xi warned him: “Those who play with fire will perish by it.” But to cancel would be to yield to Chinese bullying. And Mr Biden did not want to challenge the prerogatives of Congress.

In the end, Ms Pelosi’s flight into Taiwan went unchallenged. Welcomed by cheering well-wishers, she met Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, as well as Chinese dissidents. Dismissing China’s threats, she echoed American officials in arguing that her trip did not disrupt the status quo, citing Mr Gingrich’s trip and regular visits by congressional delegations.

In fact, the status quo has been unravelling for years. Since taking power in 2012, Mr Xi has stoked a fiery form of nationalism and placed stronger emphasis than any leader since Mao on winning back Taiwan. Without setting a clear timetable, he has said unification cannot be postponed indefinitely. He has linked it to his goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049, the prc’s centenary. The armed forces have been equipped and drilled to prepare for an assault: Chinese jets and bombers often buzz near Taiwan’s airspace. Some American generals think Mr Xi, now 69, could attempt an invasion in the 2030s—or even this decade—hoping to achieve unification in his lifetime.

Chinese officials, meanwhile, have become convinced in recent years that America is steadily hollowing out its “one-China” policy. Under that convoluted formula, America recognises the prc as China’s sole legal government and “acknowledges” its position that Taiwan is part of a single China. But America does not recognise the prc’s sovereignty over Taiwan and maintains unofficial links to the island. It is also obliged by domestic law to provide Taiwan with defensive arms and to maintain its own capacity to protect the island. Yet America has long observed “strategic ambiguity”, not specifying whether or how it would intervene in a war over the island.

China’s concerns intensified after 2016 as the Trump administration expanded high-level official visits and arms sales to the island—including offensive weapons. To China’s frustration, Mr Biden has broadly continued that approach. He has also publicly suggested three times that America would directly defend Taiwan. Last year, he said that Taiwan was independent. His aides walked back all those comments. Chinese officials seethed nonetheless.

Taiwan, as a self-governing democracy of 24m mostly Han Chinese people, represents a challenge to the giant autocracy next door; especially since its free citizens are richer than their voteless kin across the strait. The island has also drifted further from the mainland politically in recent years, notably since Mr Xi snuffed out civil liberties in Hong Kong, rendering deeply unattractive the “one country, two systems” formula that has governed the former British territory, and which Mr Xi has offered as a template for a peaceful union of China and Taiwan. Although polls show that most people in Taiwan favour maintaining the status quo over declaring independence immediately (which would surely provoke an invasion), only a small minority favour unification, and nearly all reject “one country, two systems”.

The timing of Ms Pelosi’s visit was especially sensitive. Mr Xi has already faced unexpected difficulties this year, in finessing his support for Russia over Ukraine and sustaining his zero-covid strategy despite an economic slowdown. This month, if tradition holds, party bigwigs will meet in the resort town of Beidaihe, where in the past they have had informal discussions about policies and personnel. How much of that still goes on under Mr Xi is uncertain. But he and other leaders must soon make some important decisions, on who will surround him at the top and what priorities to pursue in the years ahead—including with respect to Taiwan.

Xi’s multi-tasking

Once it was clear that Ms Pelosi’s visit was going ahead, Mr Xi appears to have sensed an opportunity to try to achieve several goals at once: projecting strength at home, reversing the trend of closer American engagement with Taiwan, deterring other countries from interfering, and conducting the largest-ever rehearsal for an assault on the island. At the same time, he appears to have telegraphed his desire to avoid a direct military confrontation with America, for example by not trying to intercept her plane and delaying the live-fire drills until after she had left.
https://www.economist.com/img/b/608/814/90/media-assets/image/20220813_CNM915.png
When the drills did start, they were calibrated to echo, yet surpass, those that China conducted during the previous big Taiwan crisis, in 1995-96, after the island’s then-president visited America. The six areas marked out for live fire were closer to the island than they were back then, and at some points came within 12 nautical miles (22km) of Taiwan’s shores, overlapping what it claims as territorial waters and airspace (see map). This “encirclement” creates “very good conditions for reshaping the strategic situation in a way that benefits unification,” Major-General Meng Xiangqing, a professor at the People’s Liberation Army (pla) National Defence University, told China’s state broadcaster.

In the first days of the crisis in July 1995, China fired just six missiles, one of which malfunctioned. On August 4th it fired 11, according to Taiwan’s ministry of defence. Japan said that five landed within its exclusive economic zone (which stretches 200 nautical miles from its shore). Of those, four were believed to have flown over Taiwan. In another first, dozens of Chinese military aircraft and ships crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line on consecutive days in a simulated air and sea attack.

Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s foreign minister, accused China of using Ms Pelosi’s visit as a pretext to rehearse an invasion plan that also included cyber-attacks, disinformation and economic coercion. The scale and complexity of China’s drills reflect the transformation of the cross-strait military balance over the past two decades, as well as the lessons China drew from the previous crisis, when it could do little to deter America from sending two aircraft-carriers to the region, one of which passed through the Taiwan Strait.

In 1995 China’s defence budget was only twice the size of Taiwan’s, though China had (and still has) close to 60 times as many people. Today China spends roughly 20 times as much as Taiwan. By the Pentagon’s account, the pla has achieved parity or surpassed America in the number of ships and submarines, long-range surface-to-air missiles and conventional cruise and ballistic missiles it can deploy.

Whether all this means it could conquer Taiwan is unknown. A war game conducted in May by the Centre for a New American Security, a think-tank in Washington, found that in a week of fighting, China was able to land troops on the island but could not reach Taipei, let alone achieve a quick victory. The conflict, set in 2027, settled into a protracted war.

Still, the latest drills served as a warning that China has many ways, short of invasion, to harm Taiwan, especially via a blockade. The exercises covered the approaches to three of Taiwan’s most important ports and the airspace that planes use to descend to Taiwanese airports. They “are tantamount to an air and sea blockade”, complained a Taiwanese general.

That is a slight exaggeration, but in a sign of how a blockade might play out, commercial shipping was forced to take longer, costlier routes. Ship-tracking websites showed vessels avoiding the exercise zones. It was a reminder of how China could isolate Taiwan, which imports over 60% of its food and 98% of its energy.

One effect of the drills might be to spur more consideration about how to help Taiwan survive a blockade, says Lonnie Henley, formerly of the Pentagon’s Defence Intelligence Agency. “Defeating a cross-strait landing operation is hard but relatively straightforward—just sink a lot of ships,” he says. “Defeating a blockade is much more difficult because of the location and terrain. My assessment is that China could keep Taiwan sealed off for many months, perhaps years, with devastating effect.”

The drills also sparked fresh concerns over the vulnerability of Taiwan’s outlying islands, including Kinmen (formerly Quemoy), a cluster just six miles (10km) from China’s coast which came under attack by Mao’s forces in 1954-55 and again in 1958. On the day of Ms Pelosi’s departure, Taiwanese troops on Kinmen fired flares at Chinese drones overhead. The next day Chinese missiles were fired near Taiwan’s Matsu archipelago.
https://www.economist.com/img/b/608/890/90/media-assets/image/20220813_CNC471.png
China’s next moves will probably depend, in part, on how America and Taiwan respond. If it believes they will continue to challenge its red lines (by expanding official contacts, for example), it may well increase pressure on them, says Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think-tank. “In the meantime, the pla will have learned many lessons from their military drills,” she says, predicting more of the same kind of exercises.

“There will be no return to the status quo ante,” says Mr Fravel. He draws parallels with China’s response in 2012 to Japan’s nationalisation of the Senkaku Islands, which China also claims and calls the Diaoyu. Chinese forces started regular air and naval patrols within 12 nautical miles of the islands.

The challenge for America and its allies will be to resist such Chinese efforts without provoking another crisis. They have so far tried to avoid escalation. Ms Pelosi’s flight to Taiwan took a circuitous route that skirted the disputed South China Sea. America does not appear to have sent new warships to the region. The Pentagon also said on August 4th it had postponed a routine test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that week.

Looking ahead, though, America will need at the very least to resume regular military activities around Taiwan, including transits through the Taiwan Strait, to maintain credibility among its regional allies. The Pentagon’s under-secretary for policy, Colin Kahl, said on August 8th that the navy would continue such transits in the coming weeks. That could be a flashpoint, especially if China continues its drills around the island.

America is also likely to strengthen Taiwan's defences by selling it more offensive weapons, training more of its troops, and lending or giving it cash to buy more kit, including small, mobile arms like those that have proved so effective in Ukraine. “Confrontation will go to a higher gear,” predicted Shi Yinhong of Renmin University in Beijing.

Congress will probably demand more. It is currently considering the Taiwan Policy Act, which would allow the island to join military exercises with America and declare it a “major non-nato ally”, facilitating the provision of more advanced weaponry. It would also authorise “de facto diplomatic treatment for Taiwan equivalent to other foreign governments”. China would almost certainly consider any one of those moves as crossing a red line.

America must somehow tailor its response to avoid putting Taiwan further at risk and to maintain cohesion with allies and partners. The G7 condemned China’s drills, as did Japan and Australia. But South Korea, another American ally, did not. South-East Asian nations have also been reluctant to take sides, just as many were after the first crisis in 1954-55.

One lesson from previous Taiwan crises is that their consequences are unpredictable. When China began shelling Taiwan’s outlying islands in 1958, America intervened again, breaking an artillery blockade on Kinmen by escorting supply vessels. But as Taiwan’s leadership pushed for a counter-strike, and America considered using nuclear weapons, the Soviet Union threatened to retaliate and America faced a backlash in the West for risking war over a cluster of islands. Nearly four decades later, the crisis in 1995-96 deterred China from military action in the near term, but fuelled anti-unification sentiment in Taiwan and convinced the mainland to accelerate its military modernisation.

The consequences of the latest showdown may not become clear for years. In the short run there is still hope for a peaceful outcome if each side stages a show of force and then pulls back, claiming victory, as they did in 1996. But over the longer term, with China now determined to consolidate perceived gains around the Taiwan Strait, and America committed to push back, all sides appear to be heading for dangerous waters. ■

https://www.economist.com/china/2022/08/11/how-the-crisis-over-taiwan-will-change-us-china-relations

[mapuc]

Skybird wrote
"Mr Xi are especially high in the run-up to a Communist Party congress later this year, when he is expected to secure a third five-year term as party leader, violating recent norms."

In an Danish article some military expert on China's military-said the best time to invade Taiwan was in March-April and Sept.-Oct.

Let me put my thoughts into writing

Xi has to show strength in the party if he show weakness his day will be over-Can we based on this conclude China will invade Taiwan somewhere in month of Sept. or Oct.

Is my thought wrong ? I hope so.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIOyGApq78g

[Jimbuna]

Taiwan warns China of 'heavy price' for invasion on battle anniversary

TAIPEI, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Taiwan is determined to defend itself and invaders will incur a "heavy price", President Tsai Ing-wen said on Tuesday on the anniversary of a confrontation six decade ago in which Taiwanese forces beat back Chinese attackers.

Tensions between Taiwan and China have spiked over the past month following the visit to Taipei by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. China staged war games near Taiwan to express its anger at what it saw as stepped up U.S. support for the island Beijing views as sovereign Chinese territory.

Meeting military officers, Tsai extolled the "spirit" of defending against China's more than a month of bombardment of the Taiwan-controlled islands of Kinmen and Matsu, just off the Chinese coast, which started in late August 1958.

"This battle defended Taiwan for us, and it also declared to the world that no threat can shake the determination of the Taiwanese people to defend their country," Tsai said, in comments released by her office.

"What we have to do is to let the enemy understand that Taiwan has the determination and preparation to defend the country, as well as the ability to defend itself," she added.

"A heavy price will be paid for invading Taiwan or attempting to invade Taiwan, and it will be strongly condemned by the international community."

Meeting earlier in the day with a delegation of former U.S. officials now at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, including Matt Pottinger, former U.S. President Donald Trump's deputy national security adviser, Tsai said that the 1958 battle paved the way for today's Taiwan.

"Sixty-four years ago during the Aug. 23 battle, our soldiers and civilians operated in solidarity and safeguarded Taiwan, so that we have the democratic Taiwan today," she said, using the Taiwanese term for that campaign, which ended in stalemate with China failing to take the islands.

Taiwan fought then with support from the United States, which sent military equipment including advanced Sidewinder anti-aircraft missiles, giving Taiwan a technological edge.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-will-continue-work-with-us-bolstering-its-defences-president-says-2022-08-23/

[mapuc]

Does anyone of you know if China has decoy like the American ADM-160 MALD ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan must let the enemy understand that the nation is determined and prepared to defend itself, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) said on Wednesday (Aug. 24).

Tsai said in a Facebook post that peace cannot be built on the temporary goodwill or charity of the enemy. In order to respond to the Chinese Communist Party’s military operations, servicemembers stationed on the front line have “a heavy and arduous task” of maintaining combat readiness, she added.

In order to affirm the performance of the military, the president said she has visited several units one after another in recent days to cheer them on. Tsai mentioned that she went to the Air Force’s Sixth Radar Squadron and the Navy’s Third Hai Feng Shore-based Anti-ship Missile Squadron on Tuesday (Aug. 23).

The radar squadron keeps an eye on the dynamics of the CCP’s military actions around the clock, while the Hai Feng Squadron is on standby, closely observing Chinese forces, Tsai said. The president said servicemembers told her that even if they were tense and under pressure when faced with an enemy threat at close range, they are well-trained and able to respond calmly to prepare for Taiwan’s defense.

Only when the military sticks to its post can we live our usual lives, she added.

Tsai called on Taiwanese to “applaud” the heroic performance of the military and defend national security and democracy together with the military.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4636557

[Jimbuna]

China warns of 'forceful measures' if Canada interferes in Taiwan

OTTAWA (Reuters) - China warned it will take "forceful measures" if Canada interferes in Taiwan, a week after it emerged that a delegation of Canadian parliamentarians was planning to visit the island later this year to explore trade opportunities.

China claims Taiwan as its territory under its "one-China principle" and objects to foreign politicians visiting the island. Democratically governed Taiwan rejects China's claims.

"We urge the Canadian side to abide by the one-China principle and respect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," the Chinese embassy in Canada said in a statement sent late Tuesday.

"China will take resolute and forceful measures against any country that attempts to interfere with or infringe upon China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," the Chinese embassy said.

Members of a Canada-Taiwan parliamentary "friendship group", which does not receive administrative or financial support from the Canadian parliament, had been planning to visit the self-ruled island in October, Liberal Member of Parliament Judy Sgro said last week.

Sgro said the trip would focus on trade and the lawmakers intent was not to disrupt and cause problems for Taiwan or with China.

In a statement, Canada's government said parliamentary associations and friendship groups were independent, and it respected the lawmakers' intent to visit Taiwan.

Canada, like the rest of the West, follows a one-China policy that recognizes Beijing, not Taipei, diplomatically, while unofficially it supports Taiwan.

The relationship between China and the West has worsened since U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan earlier this month against Beijing's wishes.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-warns-of-forceful-measures-if-canada-interferes-in-taiwan/ar-AA113fFO?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

[mapuc]

?? Is China gonna fight the entire world ??

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Most doubtful...economics are more of a primary concern these days.

[Skybird]

But Xi may start a war to distract from the economic troubles his corona policies have caused. Even likelier it is when the party sees itself threatened by civil protesr or unrest.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgig9WaS0Lw

[Rockstar]

Lifer Times Report: US Coast Guard ship denied port call in Solomons

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2022/08/26/report-us-coast-guard-ship-denied-port-call-in-solomons/

BANGKOK (AP) — A U.S. Coast Guard cutter conducting patrols as part of an international mission to prevent illegal fishing was recently unable to get clearance for a scheduled port call in the Solomon Islands, according to reports, an incident that comes amid growing concerns of Chinese influence on the Pacific nation.

…Britain’s Royal Navy did not comment directly on reports that the HMS Spey, also taking part in Operation Island Chief, was also denied a port call in the Solomon Islands.

https://www.militarytimes.com/resizer/XNiMM8NbZdzFybVSe519KUFWRK4=/1440x0/filters:format(jpg):quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/BLWWSHMLQJGY3DMYMVO6TFYDJA.jpg

[Jimbuna]

Two US warships are passing through the Taiwan Strait, the US Navy has announced.

It is the first such operation to take place since tensions between Taiwan and China increased following a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan earlier this month.

China reacted by holding large-scale military drills in the area.

The US and other Western navies have routinely sailed through the strait in recent years.

Washington says the two guided-missile cruisers - the USS Antietam and the USS Chancellorsville - are demonstrating freedom of navigation through international waters.

Beijing views such actions as provocative and maintains that the island of Taiwan is an integral part of Chinese territory.

On Sunday, its military said it was monitoring the two vessels' progress, maintaining a high alert, and was ready to defeat any provocation, Reuters news agency reports.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62704449

[Jimbuna]

China dials down Taiwan rhetoric as US and Canada transit strait


China has toned down its rhetoric on Taiwan, saying it is inevitable that the self-governing island comes under its control, but that it would promote efforts to achieve that peacefully.

The comments followed recent remarks by US president Joe Biden that America would defend Taiwan if China were to invade, and came a day after US and Canadian warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait.

The response does not appear to signal a change in policy as much as a broader attempt to calm the waters on multiple fronts in the run-up to a major meeting of the ruling Communist Party next month.

When asked about growing concern that China might resort to force, Ma Xiaoguang, the government spokesperson on Taiwan, said: “I would like to reiterate that … we are willing to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and utmost efforts.”

China and Taiwan split in 1949 during a civil war that brought the Communist Party to power on the mainland. The rival Nationalists retreated to Taiwan and established their own government on the island off China’s east coast.

China launched missiles into the waters around Taiwan during major military exercises held last month in response to a visit by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives.

Mr Ma, speaking at a news conference on the Taiwan issue, did not use the word force in his response, as he has in the past. Instead, he said that China would take “resolute measures” against any provocative moves by Taiwan or its international supporters.

He said that China would introduce more policies to help Taiwan, highlight the benefits of integration with China and encourage people-to-people exchanges.

“The motherland must be unified and will certainly be unified,” Mr Ma said, calling it “a historical trend that no-one can stop”.

But the Taiwanese, who have grown accustomed to democratic freedoms, appear unlikely to join China voluntarily — particularly after China’s crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong, a former British colony returned to China in 1997.

China’s defence ministry for the second time in recent weeks noted the sailing of US warships through the Taiwan Strait but refrained from calling it provocative, as it had earlier this year.

Chinese forces monitored the USS Higgins, a guided-missile destroyer, and a Canadian frigate, the HMCS Vancouver, spokesperson Col Shi Yi said in a statement.

He added that the military will resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The US Navy said in a statement that Tuesday’s joint manoeuvre “demonstrates the commitment of the United States and our allies and partners to a free and open Indo-Pacific”.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-dials-down-taiwan-rhetoric-as-us-and-canada-transit-strait/ar-AA124ufq?cvid=a4eb581c9ec54e358add1b2031f4b450

[mapuc]

Is there a military coup in China?

Taiwanese, Nepalese and other anti-Chinese media are spreading information that Chinese President Xi Jinping has been "placed under house arrest by the military."

Although, there is no official confirmation of this

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1573611260641435649

Markus

[Skybird]

So far I go by the assessment of this not being true.


https://dailyrake.ca/2022/09/24/supposed-coup-attempt-in-china-probably-fake-news/

[Jimbuna]

So far I go by the assessment of this not being true.


https://dailyrake.ca/2022/09/24/supposed-coup-attempt-in-china-probably-fake-news/

Agree, he is far too powerful :yep:

[ET2SN]

Isn't the CCP gearing up for another (normal) party congress, or whatever they call it? That actually makes the timing for this rumor look poor. :yep:

Maybe some in-fighting and jostling in the lower ranks of the party? :hmmm:

Agreed, this is probably anti-Xi propaganda. I used to check out some of the "viral" Indian "news" feeds and it became a waste of time. :06:

[Jimbuna]

China in grip of debunked coup rumours as Xi Jinping house arrest reports grow with all eyes on General Li Qiaoming

Social media across China and the rest of Asia continues to be in overdrive today as persistent rumours that president Xi Jinping has been removed in a coup refuse to die down.

Local and regional media speculate China’s long-standing leader was removed when he was away in Samarkand while attending the recent SCO summit, on 14 September.

Xi Jinping has reportedly not been seen in public since then although any rumours have been widely debunked in the last 24 hours.

Nevertheless, according to various reports in half a dozen Asian countries today, including India and Singapore, there are unconfirmed reports Xi Jinping has been placed under house arrest and is being replaced by the powerful army general Li Qiaoming.

Li Qiaoming, who is among the most senior officials of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has served as commander of the Northern Theater Command since September 2017.

When approached by City A.M. this afternoon local time in Beijing, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs refused to comment.

Despite the rumours circling for days, the Chinese government has remained silent and the country’s state broadcaster not aired any denial or response. However, rumours have been widely debunked.

Most noticeably, Xi did not appear in New York City last week to attend the annual General Assembly meeting while no reason was given for his absence.

US President Joe Biden spoke on Wednesday and most world leaders did make an appearance.

Instead, the Chinese government sent the country’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, who opted to shift the focus to Taiwan, telling world leaders that anyone who gets in the way of its determination to reunify with the self-governing island would be “crushed by the wheels of history”.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-in-grip-of-debunked-coup-rumours-as-xi-jinping-house-arrest-reports-grow-with-all-eyes-on-general-li-qiaoming/ar-AA12eYRW?cvid=ad7cc817d5d940b4977b6fb5c4e1cced

[Skybird]

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:
-----------------------------------------
A defeat for the West: In the UN Human Rights Council, Beijing's friends prevent a debate on the Xinjiang report. Even Kiev is behaving differently than the West expected.

It was clear from the start that this vote would be symbolic. It would show how great China's influence is in the bodies of the United Nations. On Thursday afternoon it was clear: Beijing has enough power to prevent even a debate on the human rights violations in Xinjiang. The United States and nine other countries had deliberately introduced a conspicuously neutral draft resolution. It simply said that the Human Rights Council "notes with interest" the report by former High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet on the human rights situation in Xinjiang and decides to hold a debate on it at its next Council session in February.

Seventeen countries voted in favour, 19 countries against. Eleven countries abstained. It would have been enough to get more votes in favour than against. When the result was announced, the representatives of China and its supporters clapped. The chair of the meeting called them to order in the name of the "dignity" of the Council.

Fearing such a symbolic defeat, Western countries had always avoided putting a draft resolution on China to a vote until now. Instead, they had issued joint statements that countries could join by signature. However, after the publication of the Bachelet report at the end of August, some countries felt the need to seize the momentum and risk defeat. Bachelet had published the report at the end of August just minutes before she left office. It said "serious human rights violations" were being committed in Xinjiang that "could constitute crimes against humanity".

The United States introduced the draft resolution together with Great Britain, the Scandinavian countries, Australia, Lithuania, Canada, Iceland and Denmark. Germany had not joined the group, probably because it wanted to focus more on a resolution to appoint a special rapporteur on the human rights situation in Russia, which will be voted on this Friday. Presumably, there was also the concern that fewer countries might be willing to vote against China and Russia at the same time or abstain.

China had pulled out all the stops in advance. Whole groups of diplomats had pressed the representatives of undecided countries in Geneva. Some countries reported numerous calls to their capitals. Concerns that China might cut back on promised investments in the countries might have played a role in their voting behaviour. A spokesperson for the Xinjiang government had earlier threatened "countermeasures" in Geneva. "We are ready for the fight," he had said.

Until late Wednesday evening, supporters of the draft resolution had been canvassing for approval. Until the very end, it was open how the vote would turn out. Ukraine, which the Western countries had presumably hoped would vote in favour, abstained. Beijing, for its part, is likely to be particularly miffed by Japan's repeated expression of "deep concern about the human rights situation in Xinjiang" during the session. In addition to China's usual supporters such as Pakistan, Venezuela, Eritrea and Cuba, Indonesia also voted against the resolution. Jakarta explained that it did not turn a blind eye to human rights violations against Muslims, but did not expect any progress for the situation of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang from the initiative.

Hopes for the appointment of a special rapporteur on Xinjiang are thus likely to be off the table for the time being. The new High Commissioner for Human Rights, the Austrian Volker Türk, could decide in his own right to present the Bachelet report at the next session of the Human Rights Council next year.

In its reactions to the report, which China called "perverse" among other things, it has not yet attempted to refute individual contents. This could be due to the fact that the report is largely based on documents from the Chinese government. This was also pointed out by the American Ambassador for Human Rights in Geneva, Michèle Taylor. China's supporters, meanwhile, made the same arguments as Beijing itself, sometimes verbatim.
----------------------------------------------------

[Skybird]

Elon Musk shows his profound naivety again.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63196452

[Jimbuna]

Mr Musk's comments come as the electric car maker hit a monthly record for sales in China. :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

In September this year a retired tech billionaire in Taipei, white-haired and bespectacled, called the island's media to a press conference to tell them he was pledging one billion Taiwan dollars (£28m; $32m) to create a civilian army..........

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63196623

[Jimbuna]

Ex-UK pilots lured to help Chinese military, MoD says

Former British military pilots are being lured to China with large sums of money to pass on their expertise to the Chinese military, it is claimed.

Up to 30 former UK military pilots are thought to have gone to train members of China's People's Liberation Army.

The UK is issuing an intelligence alert to warn former military pilots against working for the Chinese military.

Attempts to headhunt pilots are ongoing and had been ramping up recently, western officials say.

A spokesperson from the Ministry of Defence said the training ​and the recruiting of pilots does not breach any current UK law but officials in the UK and other countries are trying to deter the activity.

"It is a lucrative package that is being offered to people," said one western official. "Money is a strong motivator." Some of the packages are thought to be as much as £237,911 ($270,000).

The retired British pilots are being used to help understand the way in which Western planes and pilots operate, information which could be vital in the event of any conflict, such as over Taiwan.

"They are a very attractive body of people to then pass on that knowledge," a Western official said. "It's taking Western pilots of great experience to help develop Chinese military air force tactics and capabilities."

The UK first became aware of a small number of cases of former military pilots being recruited in 2019 which were dealt with on a case-by-case basis. The Covid-19 pandemic slowed attempts down, when travel to China was almost impossible but the attempts have now increased, leading to this alert.

"We've seen it ramp up significantly," a western official said in a briefing to journalists. "It is an ongoing issue." Current serving personnel are being targeted but none are thought to have accepted.

The pilots have experience on fast jets and helicopters and come from across the military and not just the Royal Air Force. They have flown Typhoons, Jaguars, Harriers and Tornados.

F-35 pilots are not thought to be involved although China is thought to be interested in them. Some of the pilots are in their late 50s and left the military some time ago. Pilots of other allied nations have also been targeted.

Officials said they are being recruited through intermediary head-hunters and cited a particular flying academy based in South Africa as being involved.

There is no evidence that any pilots have broken the Official Secrets Act or that they have committed any crime. The aim of the alert is to try and deter activity and inform current staff and industry partners and also remind personnel of their obligations to protect sensitive information.

"We are taking decisive steps to stop Chinese recruitment schemes attempting to headhunt serving and former UK Armed Forces pilots to train People's Liberation Army personnel in the People's Republic of China," an MoD spokesperson said.

"All serving and former personnel are already subject to the Official Secrets Act, and we are reviewing the use of confidentiality contracts and non-disclosure agreements across Defence, while the new National Security Bill will create additional tools to tackle contemporary security challenges - including this one."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63293582

[mapuc]

As one wrote in the comment-
"Yeah, when you're unexpectedly escorted out of the governing committee of a totalitarian state, it's usually not a good sign for your future well-being."

Hu Jintao, the former Chinese leader, was unexpectedly escorted out of the Communist Party congress without explanation. He appeared to pause to speak to President Xi Jinping before leaving

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1583872847977381889

Markus

[ET2SN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HotdJBmi8FM


:hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br1v8xwJRSk

[Skybird]

How the images resemble each other.

China:
https://static.dw.com/image/63529734_906.jpg


The "Mensch-Maschine":

https://www.rollingstone.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/02/16/54819289_BINARY_679785.jpg

[Skybird]

From now on its also formally no more "People's Republic of China", but "One Man's Empire Xina".

[Jimbuna]

China's leader Xi Jinping has moved into a historic third term in power, as he revealed a new leadership team stacked with loyalists.

On Sunday the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) unveiled its Politburo Standing Committee, with Mr Xi re-elected as general secretary.

Observers say the line-up, handpicked by Mr Xi, shows he prizes loyalty over expertise and experience.

The unveiling came after a week-long party congress in the capital.

More than 2,300 delegates elected various leadership groups and gave Mr Xi a new mandate over the party, in a break from decades-long tradition.

No other party leader besides CCP founder Mao Zedong has ever served a third term.

Leaders of China's allies - Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong-un - were among the first to send their congratulations.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63362548

[Reece]

Leaders of China's allies - Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong-un - were among the first to send their congratulations.Probably the only ones!!

How the images resemble each other.

The "Mensch-Maschine":

https://www.rollingstone.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/02/16/54819289_BINARY_679785.jpg

Kraftwerk!! I have the album Man Machine, loved the early moog stuff!! :D

[Jimbuna]

The Chinese Communist Party's congress concluded on Sunday with the set-piece confirmation of Xi Jinping's historic third five-year term in charge.

The spotlight was also on the man named as his new second-in-command, Li Qiang.

A loyalist to Mr Xi, he is now on track to become Premier and tasked with managing the world's second largest economy.

Meanwhile, on Monday, China released a set of economic figures which had been postponed from the previous week.

China's economy faces a number of challenges at home and abroad - including Beijing's zero-Covid policies and the trade conflict with the US.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63296229

[Skybird]

A commentator over here noted yesterday that all men voted into the polit bureau have by no means the format to ever become a challenger to Xi in five years.

Go figure.

As important as Xi's third term is that his person and family has been enshrined into the constitution to be the focus and fixpoint of it and the state. The Xis are set to plunder and tyrannize Xina for generations to come.

And the Xinese? They let it happen, almost without any visible resistence at all.


Not Russia or Ukraine war or Putin is the world's greatest problem. Xina is. Washington has understood this. Europe not.

[Jimbuna]

^ As is so often the case with many dictators unfortunately.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANZPQ9fhRXM

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWyJJxlOM5E

[Jimbuna]

Chinese Media Says Beijing to Use 'All Measures Necessary' Against Taiwan

Amedia outlet affiliated with China's ruling party, The Global Times, published an editorial on Friday, saying that the nation will take "all measures necessary" to ensure its control over Taiwan.

The political status of Taiwan has remained a divisive geopolitical issue over the last several decades. China claims the island as its own territory and has been hostile toward foreign powers that do not recognize its claim. Many in Taiwan and abroad, however, view it as an independent nation. A recent poll found that 52 percent of Americans believe that "other countries should provide help to Taiwan" if it were to be attacked by China.

The Global Times is a daily tabloid news outlet published by People's Daily, a publishing outfit that is operated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Like other state-run outlets, the outlet's editorial page is frequently used to express the views and stances of the CCP.

On Friday, the outlet published a piece titled, "Talking 'peace' without 'one China' is inflaming war in Taiwan Straits." It was written in response to comments made on Wednesday by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in which he said that China was looking to put greater pressure on the pursuit of "reunification" with Taiwan.

"What's changed is this: the decision by the government in Beijing that that status quo was no longer acceptable, that they wanted to speed up the process by which they would pursue reunification," Blinken said at an event hosted by Bloomberg. "That is what has fundamentally changed."

In response, the tabloid's editorial admonished Blinken and the United States for such comments, which it said to be in defiance of Beijing's "one China" stance. It said that such comments were allegedly born out of a desire to gain political points ahead of the midterm elections in November, and an attempt to give signals of "Taiwan independence" to the country's government.

"The island's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities and secessionist forces have long been helpless addicts who can easily get high over the slightest 'false signal' concocted for them by Washington," the editorial said. "Once Washington fails to supply them with such a signal in time for whatever reason, they will feel flustered and devastated. They have already stepped on a desperate path to satisfy their need for 'political drugs' to hypnotize, deceive and cheer up themselves."

Furthermore, the editorial said any attempts to discuss peace in the Taiwan Straits without acknowledging the "one China" would incite future conflict in the region. It insisted that "Taiwan is a part of China, and the sovereignty and territory of China have never been divided."

The piece continued: "Using the excuse of seeking 'peace' to instigate war, Washington has long demonstrated its hypocrisy, and the truth has become clearer: It's the Taiwan secessionists and external forces, as well as the increasingly rampant US-Taiwan collusion, that are the perpetrators of destroying the peaceful environment across the Straits."

Newsweek reached out to the State Department for comment.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/chinese-media-says-beijing-to-use-all-measures-necessary-against-taiwan/ar-AA13wpDt?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=81e53b14ba654d1fa0b64848f68b5c09

[ET2SN]

Semi related:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ig9pUE3NtPg

I think this is a good call. :salute:
The Astute class is a good platform but it was near the end of its build cycle in the UK. Its also a good mix of regional-plus-blue-water capability. :up:

[ET2SN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-q_GktDcqX4


:Kaleun_Binocular:

[Skybird]

^ 00:18:18:
"The Chinese Strategic Rocket Force possesses the most advanced cruise and ballistic program in the world, not only advanced in terms of the technology, but also in terms of numbers. They just have more munitions than the United States can defend against. China's capability to attack or target US aircraft carriers or US base sin the region is significant, and the Unite dStates have access ot missile defences, but those are easily saturated in terms of the number of missiles that China shoots, and a number of them will definitely go through."

Heck, I know I predicted this and warned of this status being reached sooner or later already at the times around the 2003 Iraq war. The Chinese are a force of missiles; missiles, missiles ,and then more missiles. Its all about a rain of missiles.

And what did already Sovjet Admiral Gorshkov predict, amongst others? That the next war at sea will be extremely intense and ammo-intensive. And navy units at sea have very limited numbers of ammunition reserves. Means for the US the units will spend long time just being in transit from and back to bases.

You also have to add to their combat navy the armada of "coast guard" ships that are not included in that number of over 330 surface ships and submarines. And different to that of the US, these huge numbers of platforms are NOT scattered all across the planet, but will get strictly focussed on the combat theatre named the Taiwan war operation. Numerical superiority of the Chinese over the US and its allies will be immense. And this from a foe of almost equal technology level.

A loss of Taiwan, in whatever way: peacefully, blackmailed, or by war, to China, will be a desaster for the world, because due to the chip production of Taiwan ending up in hands of the Chinese, Bejing then has a dagger held at the throat of practically all the rest of the world, directly over the aorta.

Still, I am not convinced the US would engage in big war against China, if China does not start any war against Taiwan by also attacking Okinawa and Guam and any identified US Carrier Group in range.

The numbers aree simpyl against the US. I am not certain nanymore that access to the Street of taiwan to shuttle over troops can be denied to the Chinese.

What speaks against China is that its military may be over-confident, like the Russian was, leading to stupid decisions and commands proving to be suicidal for the chinese forces. But the Chinese are not the Russians.

The biggest pound the US can trump with, imo is not submarines or carriers or fighter bombers, but long range bombers. And the video indicates that somewhere, too.

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes on Bu(a)bble-Olaf's folcoristic recitation of ritualized phrases:
--------------------------

Scholz and Xi have same favorite word, but fundamentally disagree

China's President Xi Jinping and Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz have the same favorite word. The chancellor's short trip to Beijing now shows that the Chinese and Germans understand "respect" to mean something fundamentally different.

Xi Jinping speaks of "mutual respect" and of leaving "differences" aside. That says it all. The party emperor, who has just been crowned for life by his claqueurs, continues to do what he wants, more than ever before.

And he certainly won't let Olaf Scholz, the man who has been in office for less than a year, stop him. When Xi says "mutual respect," you have to translate that from the diplomatic to the real.

"Respect" is then what Chinese Xi demands of his interlocutor Scholz in this blatantly asymmetrical relationship between the two statesmen.

Xi has no problem with the fact that Germany has decided to be a democracy in which minority rights are respected.

Needless to say, Scholz is saying what needs to be said during this bizarre visit

It is Scholz, after all, who has a problem with China being a dictatorship where minority rights start by putting minorities like the Muslim Uighurs in concentration camps to "re-educate" them.

You know this from German history, its dictatorial part. "Respect" in Chinese means in "real": what we do as a consequence of system inequality is our business. Not you, in any case.

Of course, Scholz says on this bizarre visit what has to be said, namely: Human rights are "universal", therefore it is precisely not about "interference in internal affairs".

It just doesn't help that Scholz says this. Because such "respect" is China's foreign policy state doctrine. In other words: the red line that no other state leader in China is allowed to cross.

Because Scholz knows this, of course, the human rights sentences sound so dutiful, like a necessary message that has to be sent from Beijing to Berlin because morally driven people, such as the Greens, demand it.

What Scholz says in Beijing is folklore

Olaf Scholz says in Beijing that sanctions against members of the European Parliament "are not acceptable to us." And now? Does Xi lift the entry ban on Green MEP Reinhard Bütikofer, a profound China expert and therefore critic? Probably not.

Such things are simply folklore - a ritual that does not change the existing conditions. A rhetorical reassurance that one is on the right moral side after all. A phrase of affirmation that has no consequences.

Has Scholz just announced that as long as the European delegate Bütikofer is on the Chinese sanctions list, Germany will not allow any Chinese delegates to enter the country? Exactly, he did not, the chancellor.

But that would have been "political reciprocity" for once. There is a lot of talk about "reciprocity" now. What is meant is that if the Chinese are allowed to participate in European ports or in a German port terminal, German companies must also be allowed to participate in Chinese ports or at least port terminals. But that is exactly what the Chinese are not considering.

"Autarky" is China's goal

The German chancellor can demand as much "market access" and "protection of intellectual property" as he likes. The reason for the Chinese refusal to establish a "level playing field" with the Germans and the West as a whole, i.e. mutual equality, is the new Chinese development doctrine.

And Xi reaffirmed it at the CP Party Congress that has just ended. "Autarky" is China's goal. In other words, increasing independence from the West. Which is meant strategically and in no way speaks against globalization.

BASF is allowed to build a plant in southern China for ten billion euros, larger than the one in Ludwigshafen. However, not because it would be good for BASF. But because it is good for China.

From the Chinese perspective, the Chinese BASF plant is a piece of added prosperity for China. And a piece of Western technology transfer in a key sector, the chemical industry.

And Western high-tech is something the Chinese are particularly keen on. This is also clear from another example.

German and Chinese politicians use the same vocabulary, but charge it in completely different ways.

Standing next to Olaf Scholz on this Friday morning is outgoing Premier Li Kequiang. In an aside, he says - it's almost hard to hear - that China is still "a developing country" when it comes to climate policy. What does that mean? Translated from Chinese into the real thing:


Germany should please understand if the Chinese continue to focus on their economic development instead of climate protection. Germany should provide development aid in the area of climate policy.

The best way to do this is with what Germany does best: its engineering services. Which it is kindly making available to China. Because that serves everyone, namely the global climate.

Irony off. But, dear readers, you have to explain it this way. German and Chinese politicians use the same vocabulary, but charge it in completely different ways. What sounds like a fundamental agreement actually describes a fundamental disagreement. Take Taiwan, for example.


One-China policy means: If China invades Taiwan, Germany does: nothing.

Scholz says the German government is "concerned" about Taiwan. But Scholz also says the German government stands by the one-China policy. But the two are mutually exclusive; it is an internal German contradiction, because: One-China policy means that for Germany, too, there is only one China, namely the communist-ruled one.

And not two, in addition to the Red dictatorship also a democracy with a complete set of human rights. One-China policy means: If China invades Taiwan, Germany does: nothing.

What a violation of "value-based foreign policy": Germany supplies weapons to Ukraine because it defends "our freedom" against the Russians.

With Taiwan it would be exactly the same: Taiwan would also defend "our freedom" in case of a Chinese attack. But Taiwan may not be Ukraine.

Scholz hopes that everything will continue as it did with Merkel

Olaf Scholz hopes that, even if the world has gone haywire, everything will somehow continue as it did with Angela Merkel. But not even Germany's industry is convinced of that anymore; its top association, the BDI, is now "Team Caution" when it comes to China.

The Chinese government has just sealed off the Foxconn site, and people are trying to run away in droves from this, the largest Apple factory on earth.

Apple is now building its new I-Phone in India, a democracy, in a Taiwanese factory. Maybe that's the right answer.

---------------------------------------

[Jimbuna]

I'm wondering if conflict ever took place, China might turn out to be as lacking in conventional military capability as Russia appears to be.

[Skybird]

They definitely have raised their numbers of modern equipment and modern platforms, zero doubt on that. One can also take it for granted that their real spending on defence is much bigger than the official, formal number given as their defence budget. Finally, they produce modenr stuff for less money than we do in the West, so the same 1 million coins buy you so and sio much in the West, but on the home-grown market of China (for military goods) it buys you so much more.



Their weakness maybe is that they are over-confident (which may make them less combat efficient but more prone to vote for war), and lack the experience to fight wars. But we can only asusj ethis, we do not know this for sure.



Their strength is numbers, no doubt on that, plus the many naval auxiliaries they have. Hundreds of these.



The Us has the edge in air power, quality and experience. But if that is eno9uzgh to fight superior Chiens enumbers - I dont beleive it a slong a sI dont see it.


Ther eis a agme chnager now, that is drones, autonomous drones, both air and sea, the ukriane war proves it. Soon we will see autonomous drone sion swarms. This trend poses a real and existential threat for the US navy's big multi-million and billion dollar warships. One of the many nightmare bscenarios I can imagine: cruise missiles sending fleets of autonomous drones with swarm AI into a diustant reigon where rhew swarm then will start to feats on what it finds there. a tnak batallion on the gporund. A carrier strike group. Defeating defence by "flooding", by oversaturating the defences with more attackers than the defenders can shoot down. Or canniosters of such swarm drones unsuspicously mounted on civilian container ships, in business containers, being send into a Western harbour, where the swarm then launches its attack.



Any attacker cna even hide the identy of the attacker. The components for building such drones can be internationally bought and collcted. Who build it, and where? Who is the attacker? The victim might never know.



I fear most people have not even started to fully comprehend what is coming at us from that direction.



Taiwan has all that chip production. German VW and BASF both invest two digit billions in new factories in China, with all technology transfer included, while reducing production in Germany. Bubble-Olag goes to Bejing and come sback with -. empt yhands. He has nothing to show up with, nothing, just cheap words. And the ukriane war is a display of what impoact drones have on modern warfare and how they throw old doctrines out of the window.



:o

[Rockstar]

https://i.ibb.co/fqYH2VZ/F45-D5665-FB30-43-E1-AF1-F-A505-E0871-C94.jpg

[ET2SN]

Taiwan is in the process of Off-shoring their chip Fabs to North America and Europe. :up:

Their companies will retain ownership and profits, so look for the Fabs on the island to start exploding on the first day of a war. :yep:

Taiwan ain't dumb.

[Skybird]

Taiwan is in the process of Off-shoring their chip Fabs to North America and Europe. :up:

Their companies will retain ownership and profits, so look for the Fabs on the island to start exploding on the first day of a war. :yep:

Taiwan ain't dumb.
They do it because Western governments more and more make it a condition they must comply with if they want ongoing diplomatic and other support against China. Because Western nations have realised that if Taiwan blows up or comes under Bejing's control or a sea embargo is implemented by China, the West's access to chips is screwed.


One maybe even can call it "dodging a war" - by not needing to support Taiwan in place anymore. The Taiwaense calcualtion was ot make the world depending on it so that it has no other choice than to come to its rescue in case China attacks. But the successful military defenc eof Taiwan is in doubt now, and would anyway come at the cost of massive, huge destruction in Taiwan.



We must get the chip production out of Taiwan. Not nice for Taiwan. Essential and vital for us.

[August]

https://i.ibb.co/fqYH2VZ/F45-D5665-FB30-43-E1-AF1-F-A505-E0871-C94.jpg


Is that Walter Cronkite next to the Gipper?

[ET2SN]

Sky, they're doing it because-

A). If/when the PRC does invade Taiwan, all of their soldiers will carry a copy of the TSMC logo with orders NOT to shoot at any building where they see it. That would be like roasting the goose that lays the golden eggs.
I believe the ROC Army will destroy those buildings as soon as they see the landing craft heading in.

B). A more practical matter, if the world has to shut down again due to a new COVID variant or an entirely new virus, its better to have multiple production and distribution sites. This helps prevent bottle necks like we've seen over the last two years.

It has nothing to do with politics, it has everything to do with survival. :yep:

[Jimbuna]

^ Pretty much how I see it :yep:

[Skybird]

Sky, they're doing it because-

A). If/when the PRC does invade Taiwan, all of their soldiers will carry a copy of the TSMC logo with orders NOT to shoot at any building where they see it. That would be like roasting the goose that lays the golden eggs.
I believe the ROC Army will destroy those buildings as soon as they see the landing craft heading in.
China will not unleash that war due to raitonal consideraitons or eocnomic reaosns, but due tpo hysteric sentiments and nationalism. In other words: for highly irrational reasons. Dont count on the logic you just laid out!
Also because they need Taiwan as access gate to the pacific especially for their submarines (which currently must leave harbour surfaced and stay on surface for long time before they can go really deep), but also for their surface fleet.


B). A more practical matter, if the world has to shut down again due to a new COVID variant or an entirely new virus, its better to have multiple production and distribution sites. This helps prevent bottle necks like we've seen over the last two years.

Thats more or less the argument I have. It has been reported that Wetsenr nations have mounte dpressure to make their support depending on Taiwans willingness to open chip production outside Taiwan, too, and to transfer capacities and knowledge - which is exactly AGAINST the Taiwanese strategic interest to make the world depending on defending Taiwan in place. Thbat they muist open factories outside Taiwan WEAKENS the original Taiwanse strategy - and might be a hint at how nations really see chances or are willing (=unwilling) to defend Taiwain.

[mapuc]

If and when they are attacking/invading Taiwan we will see how China's military strategy is and how their doctrine works in reality.
The same goes with the Taiwan military-How is they defence strategy and their doctrine works in reality.

A countries military doctrine, like the Chinese has been created in peacetime.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8_RIG5Prgo

[Skybird]

If and when they are attacking/invading Taiwan we will see how China's military strategy is and how their doctrine works in reality.
The same goes with the Taiwan military-How is they defence strategy and their doctrine works in reality.

A countries military doctrine, like the Chinese has been created in peacetime.

Markus
The losses on all participating sides will be extremely huge, I would expect.

[Skybird]

Gunnar Heinsohn projected the war index for 2030 in 2017 on the basis of demopgraphic trends and data available back then. These demographic trends change only slowly over time, so the trend the table indicates, probably still is more or less valid and correct. Explanation of what it is, is in the text at the top, if you have fogtten (I mentioned this index repeatedly over the years). Its about the ratio between old and young men in a society. Now look up states like USA, UK, Germany, Russia, China, Taiwan; or Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, various african crisis hotspots...


Note that this index does not indicate decisions made by foolish old criminal scumbags at the top of states, but reflect on the inner dynamics of population-wide drives and motivations, the energy of population that pushes things to certain developments all by itself. That Russia has a low war index and Putin declaring war, is no contradiction, both have nothign to do with each other. You need to see the numbers in comparison to the "real" sympathy of the population for the war. Would it have demanded this war all by itself, for nationalistic grandezza and young men's eagerness to prove themselves in war over a nationalistic or ideological/religous cause? Hardly.



Relevant the index also is for realising what the loss of mostly fighting men's life in the war means for the demographic future of the population.



War also incldues, always, to win by killing enemy soldiers. Whicxh might be difficult if the enemy has a bigegr supply of young men than the other side has bullets to kill them. Idf demiogroahcis during a long term war even chnage so that the war iondex climbs durign the conflict, this is not good news for the other side. This explaisn quite some of why the West as well as Russia failed in Afghanistan, Iraq.



https://i.postimg.cc/Jnzs9nwL/Unbenannt.png (https://postimages.org/)


I post this in the Ukraine and in the China thread.

[Skybird]

A shortage here would be far more desastrous than the shortage in gas. Gas can be replaced: chips not.

https://think--again-org.translate.goog/wann-kommt-die-chips-krise/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

No need to worry, everything is going to be fine :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8l3zzlyM4M

[Jimbuna]

Joe Biden has been speaking at a news conference after holding his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since he became president.

He says he's not looking for "conflict" between the US and China, and there will not be a new Cold War.

The meeting comes at a time when relations between the two superpowers have soured.

Xi warned Biden against crossing a "red line" on Taiwan, according to Chinese state media.

The leaders are in Indonesia for the G20 meeting, which starts on Tuesday.

Taiwan is top of their agenda - Beijing claims the self-ruled island as part of its territory, Taiwan sees itself as distinct.

[Catfish]

^ "Peace in our time"

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKfKOGwcFN8

[Jimbuna]

Taiwan is at the core of China's core interests - Chinese defence minister

BEIJING (Reuters) -Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe on Tuesday told his U.S. counterpart that Taiwan is at the core of China's core interests and was a "red-line" that must not be crossed.

"The resolution of Taiwan is a matter for Chinese people, no external force has the right to interfere," Wei said at a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of a gathering of Southeast Asian defence chiefs in Cambodia.

Wei said the United States must respect China's core interests and hoped it could adopt a rational, practical policy towards China, and get China-U.S. relations back on track.

Beijing has steadfastly viewed Taiwan as an inalienable part of China.

Earlier, Chinese state media quoted defence ministry spokesman Tan Kefei as saying the main reason for the current state of relations between China and the United States was that the United States made the wrong strategic judgment.

Tan said China was not responsible for the state of relations.

(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Kim Coghill, Robert Birsel)
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/taiwan-is-at-the-core-of-china-s-core-interests-chinese-defence-minister/ar-AA14oRlQ?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=f480d07a507d4b9fa83a63746a82ca67

[Jimbuna]

Don't INTERFERE in our relationship with India: China's BIG warning to US

Washington: China has warned American officials not to interfere in its relationship with India, the Pentagon has said in a report to Congress. Throughout its standoff with India along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), Chinese officials sought to downplay the severity of the crisis, emphasising Beijing's intent to preserve border stability and prevent the standoff from harming other areas of its bilateral relationship with India, the Pentagon said in a report on Tuesday.

"The PRC (People's Republic of China) seeks to prevent border tensions from causing India to partner more closely with the United States. PRC officials have warned US Officials to not interfere with the PRC's relationship with India," the Pentagon said in its latest report to the Congress on Chinese military buildup.

In a section on the China-India border, the Pentagon said throughout 2021, the PLA sustained the deployment of forces and continued infrastructure build-up along the LAC. Negotiation made minimal progress as both sides resist losing perceived advantages on the border, it said.

Beginning in May 2020, Chinese and Indian forces faced off in clashes with rocks, batons, and clubs wrapped in barbed wire at multiple locations along the LAC. The resulting standoff triggered the buildup of forces on both sides of the border.

"Each country demanded the withdrawal of the other's forces and a return to pre-standoff conditions, but neither China nor India agreed on those conditions," it said.

"The PRC blamed the standoff on Indian infrastructure construction, which it perceived as encroaching on PRC territory, while India accused China of launching aggressive incursions into India's territory," it added.

Since the 2020 clash, the PLA has maintained a continuous force presence and continued infrastructure build-up along the LAC. The 2020 Galwan Valley incident was the deadliest clash between the two nations in the past 46 years, the report said.

On June 15th, 2020, patrols violently clashed in Galwan Valley resulting in the death of approximately twenty Indian soldiers and four PLA soldiers, according to PRC officials, it said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/don-t-interfere-in-our-relationship-with-india-china-s-big-warning-to-us/ar-AA14IxkH?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=1d1f0ff45fc1431ead72ba3c563526a9

[ET2SN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0aFqM4ES40

[Jimbuna]

Taiwan extends compulsory military service amid mounting tensions with China

Taiwan will extend its compulsory military service from four months to one year amid mounting military tensions with China, the island’s president has announced.

Under the plans due to come into effect in 2024, conscripts will undergo more intense training, including shooting exercises and combat instruction used by US forces. Conscripts will be tasked with guarding key infrastructure, enabling regular forces to respond more swiftly in the event of any attempt by China to invade.

The announcement of the change came after Taiwan’s defence ministry reported that 71 Chinese air force jets and drones had entered the island’s air defence identification zone within 24 hours on Monday – the largest reported incursion to date.

“As long as Taiwan is strong enough, it will be the home of democracy and freedom all over the world, and it will not become a battlefield,” President Tsai Ing-wen told a news conference after a national security council meeting. “Taiwan wants to tell the world that between democracy and dictatorship, we firmly believe in democracy. Between war and peace, we insist on peace. Let us show the courage and determination to protect our homeland and defend democracy.”

The defence authority also plans to raise the monthly wage of regular conscription soldiers from about NT$6,500 (US$211) to NT$26,307 (US$856), almost in line with the minimum wage.

Since 2013, Taiwan has required men over 18 to serve four months in the military, with the first five weeks in a basic training boot camp. The new plan will put mandatory recruits on eight-week basic training.

Chen Chi-mai, mayor of Kaohsiung city and the acting chairperson of the ruling Democratic Progressive party, told reporters on Tuesday that it was essential to strengthen national security, the official news agency CNA reported.

Taiwan has been gradually shifting from a conscript military to a volunteer-dominated professional force, but China’s growing assertiveness towards the island it claims as its own, as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have prompted debate about how to boost defence.

Tsai said “a few things” had been learned from that war which have been incorporated into Taiwan’s defence reforms, and noted that Ukraine’s ability to hold off much larger Russian forces had given the international community time to render assistance.

Previous governments cut compulsory service for men from more than two years to four months to please younger voters during a period of easing tensions between Taipei and Beijing.

Taiwan’s efforts to bolster the readiness of its defence forces accelerated after the visit to the island from the US House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, in August. China immediately staged military drills around Taiwan in response to Pelosi’s visit.

The de facto US embassy in Taiwan welcomed the announcement on conscription reform. “The United States’ commitment to Taiwan and steps Taiwan takes to enhance its self-defence capabilities contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region,” the American Institute in Taiwan said.

A survey conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation in December found that 73.2% of respondents were in favour of an extension to compulsory service.

Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s foreign minister, told the Guardian in an exclusive interview earlier this month that the Chinese military threat was “getting more serious than ever”, with a five-fold increase in warplane incursions into the island’s defence zone since 2020.

Wu said the drills conducted after Pelosi’s visit were also aimed at scaring off other governments which might support Taiwan.

As part of the efforts to ramp up the island’s combat strength, on Friday Tsai inaugurated new military facilities at an army base in the southern city of Kaohsiung, which she said offers “a better living environment” for military personnel, according to a statement released by the president office.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/27/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-amid-mounting-tensions-with-china

[Skybird]

War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html


Without wanting to be heartless or anything, but: the body count of lost servicemen on allied side sound unbelievably low to me.

[Dargo]

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would leave the island completely devastated, resulting in thousands of deaths among the Chinese, American, Taiwanese and Japanese armies. Moreover, the conflict would have no winner: both the Chinese and American navies would come out of the confrontation badly battered. This is according to a series of large-scale war simulations by a U.S. think tank. The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) institute says it has spent the past few months creating the largest ever series of war games of a possible conflict between China on the one hand and Taiwan and its American and Japanese allies on the other. This involved simulating no less than 24 scenarios of a Chinese invasion of the island in 2026. The results will be officially presented later today, but news channel CNN says it has already been able to see the results. Just about all the scenarios show that the Chinese attack attempt would fail and take a particularly high military toll on all warring parties. Even if the United States emerged victorious, its military would come out as violated as the defeated Chinese army.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoZv_7KYMkA
Live; January 9, 2023, at 8:00 PM GMT+1

At least two American aircraft carriers would be left at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, as would 10 to 20 other ships. "The United States and Japan combined would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of military personnel. Such losses would damage American dominance on the world stage for many years," the report said. Some 3,200 US military personnel could be killed defending Taiwan's territorial integrity in three weeks. On the other hand, China would also suffer heavy losses, and the invasion would fail and leave China's modern navy "in ruins." "The backbone of its amphibious force is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are captured." The report assumes 10,000 Chinese military personnel will be killed, 155 combat aircraft lost and 138 ships sunk. So the Chinese toll would be higher than the American one, yet this could also be just a pyrrhic victory for the U.S., "with a higher toll than 'defeated' China in the long run."

For the 24-million-strong island itself, a Chinese invasion would obviously have the greatest impact. "The Taiwanese army would not be destroyed, but it would be largely defeated. It would have to defend a damaged economy without electricity and basic services." About 3,500 Taiwanese soldiers would die, and all 26 frigates and destroyers would sink to the bottom of the sea. Finally, Japan would lose more than 100 fighter planes and 26 ships. Relations between China and Taiwan have been on edge again since then-U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island last year. That visit indicated an implicit recognition of Taiwan's independence, which aroused great anger in China. The People's Republic of China considers Taiwan - which calls itself the only official "Republic of China" - a renegade province and integral part of its territory, the so-called One China principle that says there is only one China in the world. While the United States does recognize the Chinese position, as its main ally, it is also legally obligated to provide military support to Taiwan to preserve its independence.

Whether it will ever actually come to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, only Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to know. He does not explicitly rule out the scenario, but many experts call it unlikely at this point. "The Chinese summit could also implement a strategy of diplomatic isolation, operations under the radar and economic strangulation against Taiwan," the CSIS report sounds. The experts also point out that Taiwan's geographical position does not allow for an "Ukraine scenario," referring to how the West is gradually providing that country with resources and weapons to defend itself. "Once the war starts, it would be impossible to send arms and supplies to Taiwan. Whatever Taiwan will try to defend itself with, it will only be possible with material that is already there at that time."

[Skybird]

Ehem...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2846582&postcount=392

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=249175&page=27

Lets merge threads.

[Jimbuna]

[B][I][SIZE=2]


Without wanting to be heartless or anything, but: the body count of lost servicemen on allied side sound unbelievably low to me.

Yeah, I was also thinking that :yep:

[Dargo]

Ehem...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2846582&postcount=392

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=249175&page=27

Lets merge threads.Fine by me, only dunno how

[Jimbuna]

Threads merged.

[Aktungbby]

Ehem...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2846582&postcount=392

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=249175&page=27

Lets merge threads.

Threads merged. Well lets really merge threads! :D https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=214616If Ukraine is the left shoe; the right shoe Taiwan is bound to drop sooner or later...Both Putin and Xi are anxious to secure their respective legacies by destroying the old 'World order'. However, I note that even China is not immediately venturing into the "black hole of Kabul...vacated by both Russia and the United States.

[mapuc]

Everyone is saying the obvious like 2+2 equal 4.

Everyone take it for granted.

However who says USA and/or Japan would go to war against China-If they try to invade or retake Taiwan.

I myself say the chance is very little.

I would say to Xi:

It will cost you millions of dead Chinese soldiers and civilians if you try to take Taiwan with force. When it comes to USA and/or Japan you can expert massive military aids to Taiwan and other military and civilian help-They will not engage you directly.

There isn't a President in the Oval Office who want to be known as the one who killed hundrede of thousands American soldiers and civilians

There isn't a President in the Oval Office who want to known as the one who dragged USA down from being superpower to an almost third country.

I may be wrong, it is how I see it.

Markus

[ET2SN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHs8wqj3WQY


Marshalltown, Iowa . :Kaleun_Thumbs_Up:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFXeXOxU0yQ

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:
--------------------
Beijing knows exactly why Putin is not winning his war

Xi Jinping has closely followed the course of Putin's Ukraine invasion. He has made preparations - and unlike Russia, he would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan.

The question of whether an attack by Beijing on the island republic of Taiwan would play out similarly to Putin's attack on Ukraine is on the minds of strategists, military leaders and politicians around the world.

Is the Chinese army better prepared than the Russian? If attacked, can the Taiwanese defend themselves as well as the Ukrainian forces are doing right now? Can China's leader Xi, unlike Kremlin dictator Putin, succeed in a "blitz war"?

To answer these questions, it is helpful to remember February 2022. For Putin's attack was not a surprise, but prepared over weeks. The world watched as troops were moved to the border with Ukraine, as the Kremlin's rhetoric against the neighboring country intensified. At the time, people in the capitals of the free world believed that Putin was bluffing, that he would not actually follow through with an attack. This miscalculation must not be repeated in the case of Taiwan.

Beijing knows why Putin has not won the war so far

If Beijing were really serious about its threat of war, it would mean weeks of preparations that would be noticed outside the People's Republic. The economy would have to be converted by Beijing to war production. Troop movements would be detectable via satellite imagery. So the attack would certainly not be a surprise.

Xi Jinping, the commander-in-chief of his army (the Chinese army is subordinate to the Communist Party, not the state), has closely followed the course of the Ukraine invasion. In September, his ally Putin had to come up and answer Xi's "questions and concerns" regarding the failure of the Ukraine invasion to succeed. Beijing threw its full weight behind Putin's belligerence. Anything less than a Putin victory would be an embarrassment and a loss of face for Xi.

Beijing knows why Putin has not won the war so far: The defensive readiness of the Ukrainian army and civilian population, as well as the unity of the free world, have ensured that the Kremlin's aggression has been successfully repelled.
Kremlin chief Putin invites China's party leader Xi on state visit
Photo: dpa Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, speaks with Xi Jinping, president of China, during a video conference. Putin has invited Chinese leader Xi to Moscow for a state visit in the spring.

Xi Jinping would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan

Xi has therefore been busy over the past eleven months, talking to co-dictators in Tehran and Pyongyang. The axis of evil from Moscow, through Beijing, North Korea and Iran has strengthened, with weapons going back and forth between them. Beijing is ensnaring more autocracies like Saudi Arabia to win them over and give them the opportunity to abandon their alliance with Washington in favor of the People's Republic at a crucial moment. Xi Jinping would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan.

Moreover, Beijing is trying massively to brace itself against possible sanctions that an attack on Taiwan would surely entail. Getting Saudi Arabia to do its oil business with Beijing in Chinese currency rather than U.S. dollars is as much a part of the security precautions as contracts for gas and oil supplies with the Taliban (which are also to be paid in Chinese currency). Even in Beijing, no one believes any longer that China's economy cannot be dealt with by sanctions, because the economy is in a multiple crisis due to Xi's ideological policies.

China will be better prepared for its war of aggression than Putin was

If the real estate sector, which accounts for about twenty percent of China's economic output, does indeed collapse, if economic growth continues to stagnate, and if even more loans Beijing has extended under its New Silk Road initiative default, sanctions by the free world could indeed deal a death blow to the Chinese economy and thus to the autocracy of Xi and his nomenklatura. Xi wants to be prepared against this in any case.

China will, that much is certain, be better prepared for its war of aggression than Putin was. But in the end, such a war will be decided on the battlefield. And these are indeed elementally different.

Ukraine is the largest country in Europe, Taiwan a small island. Landing on its shores would be anything but child's play for the Chinese navy and could end the invasion before it even began. The demise of the Armada in the 21st century. But Beijing could easily seal off the island from the rest of the world. A foretaste of this was provided by the blockade of Taiwan in the summer of 2022 after U.S. politician Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei.

Both the political leadership and the civilian population and army of Ukraine, like the political leaders in the free world, were a good deal ahead of Moscow at the end of February 2022. However, no one can rest on that. For Taiwan to remain a free country, all those who would be involved in a potential war or work to prevent it from happening in the first place must be one step ahead of Beijing.
---------------------------

[Jimbuna]

'Seriously doubt' imminent invasion of Taiwan by China -Pentagon chief

WASHINGTON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday he seriously doubted that ramped up Chinese military activities near the Taiwan Strait were a sign of an imminent invasion of the island by Beijing.

"We've seen increased aerial activity in the straits, we've seen increased surface vessel activity around Taiwan," Austin said during a press conference alongside U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and their Japanese counterparts.

"But whether or not that means that an invasion is imminent, you know, I seriously doubt that," Austin said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/seriously-doubt-imminent-invasion-taiwan-by-china-pentagon-chief-2023-01-11/

[ET2SN]

China has the hardware and the troops, the problem is that neither have been fully tested in battle. :yep:

Running drills and exercises is great. Unfortunately, the plans hit the fan when the real shooting starts.

I would get really concerned about Taiwan after China gets itself dragged into a brushfire war or two. There's no other way to build that kind of experience.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/16/asia/china-navy-fleet-size-history-victory-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

^This. And strangely I almolst never read a reflecting on that the US navy is engaged globally and thus its forces are thinned out even further in location, while the Chinese amass their numerically already superior forces directly in their intended warzone. Replenishment bases in Japan will be taken care of by the Chinese, and then its damn long resupply routes for the Americans.

I dont give too much for that recent wargame that was reported about two weeks ago. I expect high losses for China and the US and Taiwan and Japan alike - and a Chinese victory nevertheless. Where victory cpoudl also0 mean the destruction of Taiwanese chip production so that the world can not get its hands on it.

And an obliterated Taiwan with a totally bombed-out industry with collapsed chip production and unimaginable consequences for the global economy.

The Chinese watch the Russians in Ukraine, and will learn from it. Their attack will come much harder, and much better prepared, with much greater stockpiles of ammo and missiles, and much more autarky from global markets and smaller vulnerability to economic and financial sanctions.

[Skybird]

Air Force general tells his troops and pilots to get ready.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-air-force-general-predicts-war-china-2025-memo-rcna67967


Yes, the elections. Tempting point of time.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vgKIxWiRPI

[Jimbuna]

Taiwan tracks 23 Chinese military aircraft, 4 naval ships around country

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Ministry of National Defense (MND) tracked 23 Chinese military aircraft and four naval vessels around Taiwan between 6 a.m. on Wednesday (Feb. 1) and 6 a.m. on Thursday (Feb. 2).

Of the 23 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, 17 were monitored in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the MND. Two Shenyang J-11 fighter jets, one Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane, one Shaanxi Y-8 electronic intelligence plane, one KJ-500 airborne early warning and control plane, and one Harbin BZK-005 reconnaissance drone were spotted in the southwest corner of the ADIZ.

Meanwhile, eight Shenyang J-16 fighter jets either entered the southwest corner of the zone or crossed the Taiwan Strait median line. Three Sukhoi Su-30 jet fighters also crossed the median line in the northeast sector of the ADIZ.

In response, Taiwan sent aircraft and naval ships and used land-based missiles to monitor PLA aircraft and vessels.

So far this month, Beijing has sent 57 military aircraft and 13 naval ships around Taiwan. Since September 2020, China has increased its use of gray zone tactics by routinely sending aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ.

Gray zone tactics are defined as “an effort or series of efforts beyond steady-state deterrence and assurance that attempts to achieve one’s security objectives without resort to direct and sizable use of force.”
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4797764

[Jimbuna]

Speaker calls for defense of Taiwan's democracy at International Religious Freedom Summit

You Si-kun warns Chinese invasion of Taiwan will threaten global peace, trade.

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan Legislative Speaker You Si-kun (游錫堃) on Wednesday (Feb. 1) emphasized the importance of protecting Taiwan’s democracy and highlighted the nation’s strategic importance in global trade and as a key semiconductor manufacturer.

Speaking at the International Religious Freedom Summit in Washington, D.C., You said that “if Taiwan cannot be safeguarded very carefully, it will be very dangerous to global trade as well as global peace," per Reuters. He said if Taiwan were to fall into the hands of China, then the only democracy in the Mandarin-speaking world would be “destroyed.”

China could seize the first island chain and become a threat to the world, he said. "So it's very important to safeguard Taiwan, especially its democracy."

You also blasted Beijing's treatment of religious minorities, Reuters reported.

Later, You did not reveal whether he would meet with any U.S. officials or House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during his trip. McCarthy has expressed interest in visiting Taiwan in April.

The legislative speaker will attend the National Prayer Breakfast before returning to Taiwan on Feb. 3.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4797757

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/22/asia/us-navy-chief-china-pla-advantages-intl-hnk-ml/index.html


Shipyards. The numbers speak truths hard to counter.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKOnp2-XSmI

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRqtemifQ80

[Skybird]

Gaining carrier-killing capability is a top priority of the Chinese navy, its part of their doctrine. This event from 2021 is just a random story to me. In a real war there, I am quite certain that it would be the carriers being the hunted ones. And not necessarily by submarines, though subs will complicate the task of the carriers.

If the Chinese will take out carriers in a future war, then most likely by air missile and altered ICBM threats. Especially the latter is something that the Chinese navy also takes extremely important - like the US doctrine bases on carriers, the Chinese doctrine bases on keeping these carriers away - or taking them out.

[Jimbuna]

China to work with Belarus to promote bilateral relations - state media

BEIJING, March 1 (Reuters) - China President Xi Jinping said the country is willing to work with Belarus to promote the healthy and stable development of bilateral relations at the highest level, state media reported on Wednesday.

Xi also said China and Belarus should support each other in "safeguarding their own core interests, oppose interference by external forces in internal affairs, and safeguard the sovereignty and political security of the two countries."

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko was in Beijing attending several state meetings. The two heads of state signed a joint statement firming up the further development of an "all-weather" and comprehensive strategic partnership between the countries, according to state media.

In September last year, Xi and Lukashenko announced an "all-weather" strategic partnership, in a step-up in bilateral ties. China signed a "no limits" partnership with close Belarus ally Russia just before Moscow invaded Ukraine a year ago.

On Wednesday, China and Belarus also signed a number of bilateral cooperation documents in economy and trade, industry, agriculture, science and technology, health, tourism and sports, Xinhua News reported.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-work-with-belarus-promote-bilateral-relations-state-media-2023-03-01/

[ET2SN]

Belarus is land locked. I'm just sayin'... :03:

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:
------------------------------
Has the West already lost the big technology race against China?

China beats the U.S. in 37 of 44 key technologies, according to an Australian think tank. The strength of democratic countries lies in cooperation.

In a world that increasingly seems to be splitting into two camps economically, it is becoming more and more important who dominates which key technologies. After all, computer chips and artificial intelligence are the basis for countless applications, from the energy transition to the military. The U.S. and China are fighting particularly fiercely for dominance - it is difficult to say exactly who is leading where.

The think tank Australian Strategic Policy Institute (Aspi), which is close to the Australian defense establishment, is now trying to determine this more precisely. Its conclusion sounds alarming: "Western democracies are losing the global technological race, the race for breakthroughs in science and research, and the ability to retain the world's best minds." These, he said, are critical prerequisites for developing and controlling the world's most important technologies, including those that do not yet exist.

The Aspi examined 44 technologies, from high-tech materials and radio communications to electric batteries and quantum computing to advanced aircraft engines and drones. China leads in 37 of these areas - the U.S. in the rest.

https://i.postimg.cc/qBKhLVK1/Unbenannt.png (https://postimages.org/)


But how do you measure technology leadership? Aspi counts scientific publications in the various fields and gives greater weight to those that are cited particularly often. There is a clear correlation between registered patents and the most frequently cited research results, the study authors write. Therefore, they say, it is possible to measure the scientific performance of a country or institution.

The example of hypersonic weapons shows that it is worth taking a look at published research results. These are guided missiles that fly faster than five times the speed of sound. They are considered to be almost impossible or difficult to intercept. In 2021, American military officials were surprised when it became known that China had tested a hypersonic weapon that could be armed with a nuclear warhead.

Yet there were clear signs that China was a leader in this area, the Aspi authors write: Nearly half of all high-quality research reports on modern aircraft engines - which include hypersonic propulsion systems - came from China, and seven of the world's top ten research institutes in the field were Chinese, they said.

The recent affair about the Chinese spy balloon over the USA was a similar case: Chinese universities, which are known for defense research, have for years been researching balloons and similar flying objects more intensively than probably anyone else, including for military missions. Aspi now wants to use its new index called Critical Technology Tracker to lay the groundwork for preventing further such surprises.

When it comes to quantum technologies, for example, China is well ahead of the U.S. in three out of four categories, in some cases. Quantum technologies take advantage of the fact that, unlike conventional particles, a quantum particle can assume multiple states simultaneously. This allows certain calculations to be performed much faster. For example, it may one day be possible to easily crack RSA, the encryption technique commonly used today.

In the field of post-quantum cryptography - i.e., encryption technology that will one day be able to withstand quantum computers - China leads with 31 percent of the studies and patents, ahead of the U.S. with just over 13 percent. The situation is similar for quantum communications, which are secured via such encryption. In the development of quantum computers, on the other hand, the Aspi somewhat surprisingly sees the U.S. clearly ahead of China.

Probably the most publicly discussed technology at present is artificial intelligence (AI); after all, the human-like chat software ChatGPT, released in November, has already been downloaded more than 100 million times worldwide. The Aspi also sees China ahead or nearly on par with the U.S. in several categories, such as AI algorithm development and the design of powerful computer chips.

However, the focus on research studies and patents in this area in particular reveals a weakness of the study: the best research is of no use if you cannot manufacture the corresponding products yourself. In China's case, for example, this is evident in chips with AI capabilities. That's because the U.S. imposed comprehensive export bans and other restrictions on China's chip industry in October.

In 8 of the 44 areas, the Aspi authors see a risk that Beijing could achieve a monopoly. This is the case when the output of Chinese research exceeds that of the next country by more than three times and 8 of the top 10 research institutes in the field are in China. This is worrisome because in the longer term it could give the authoritarian regime in Beijing the ability to blackmail other countries.

It has already shown on several occasions that it is not afraid to do so. In 2010, for example, China blocked the export of rare earths to the Japanese electronics industry after Japan arrested a Chinese captain who had rammed a Japanese coast guard ship. Beijing also banned imports of many Australian products after Canberra called for an investigation into the coronavirus pandemic outbreak.

The Chinese position on science cannot come as a surprise in that the communist government had long made such leadership a goal. The authors of the study also recommend that Western countries develop strategies to promote research and provide appropriate funding.

The danger that global key technologies could be dominated by an authoritarian state is put into perspective by the fact that behind China and the USA, the democracies India, Great Britain, Germany, South Korea, Italy, Australia and Japan share the top 5 positions in almost all areas. Of the authoritarian countries, only Iran makes it into this league several times. Research cooperation between democratic nations thus has security policy relevance.
-----------------------


Also:
https://techtracker.aspi.org.au/

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbQN5bVQRDA

[Skybird]

China raises its defence budget by 7%. And that is the official number only.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64857194

[Rockstar]

Just an FYI

SINICA PODCAST

China and the Ukraine War one year after the invasion, with Evan Feigenbaum and Alexander Gabuev

https://thechinaproject.com/podcast/china-and-the-ukraine-war-one-year-after-the-invasion-with-evan-feigenbaum-and-alexander-gabuev/

[Jimbuna]

China raises its defence budget by 7%. And that is the official number only.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64857194

Reported as being dwarfed by the US which is four times greater though.

[Rockstar]

https://youtu.be/Iibs7buNwxQ

[Skybird]

Reported as being dwarfed by the US which is four times greater though.
The Chinese playgorund is muczh smaller still than th eamerican. And the Chinese budget reported is only the official. You can safely assume that the real budget is MUCH bigger.


As with Corona case numbers reported from China. :03:

[Skybird]

How China controls its top students in Germany
Chinese students with scholarships are bound by contracts with gagging clauses, but that contravenes the academic freedom guaranteed by Germany's constitution.
https://www.dw.com/en/how-china-controls-its-top-students-in-germany/a-64901849

Is that so? I tell you what, Germany: we should not allow any students from China at all anymore. Why do we educate our enemy?

BTW, the German government today has announced that all IT network and mobile network providers must check their old hardware provided by Chinese manufacturers like Huawei and others - for the same reasons why many other countries already have banned these companies from providing hardware for critical communication and IT networks.

[Jimbuna]

Conflict with China is inevitable unless the U.S. changes course, Beijing's new foreign minister warns

BEIJING — The U.S. and China are hurtling toward inevitable “confrontation and conflict” unless Washington changes course, Beijing’s new foreign minister warned Tuesday.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s fiery comments underlined the deepening tensions between the world’s two largest economies in the wake of the surveillance balloon saga and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

They echoed similarly sharp remarks Monday by China’s leader, Xi Jinping, blaming U.S. efforts to contain China for deteriorating relations and suggesting Beijing would increasingly seek to push back.

Qin spoke at a news conference in Beijing, his first since he took office in December, on the sidelines of the annual meeting of China’s rubber-stamp legislature, where Xi is expected to complete the biggest government reshuffle in a decade.

In a wide-ranging rebuke of U.S. policies, Qin — who until recently was the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. — questioned President Joe Biden’s assertion that the U.S. seeks competition with China but not conflict.

“In fact, the U.S. side’s so-called competition is all-round containment and suppression, a zero-sum game,” he said, suggesting conflict may be unavoidable unless Washington stops trying to suppress Beijing.

“The U.S. side supposedly wants to put ‘guardrails’ on Sino-U.S. relations and not to clash,” Qin continued. “In fact, it wants China not to respond in words or action when slandered or attacked. That is just impossible.

“If the U.S. side does not put on the brakes and continues down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can stop the derailment and rollover into confrontation and conflict,” he said.

In a speech to political delegates Monday, Xi also accused the U.S. of trying to fence China in.

“Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development,” he said, according to Xinhua, China’s state-run news agency.

Qin also criticized Washington’s decision early last month to shoot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon off South Carolina, repeating Beijing’s insistence that it appeared over U.S. territory by accident.

“The U.S. side violated the spirit of international law and international practice by making presumptions of guilt, overreacting, abusing force and making use of the issue to create a diplomatic crisis that could have been avoided,” he said.

Of Taiwan, the self-ruling island that Beijing claims as its territory, Qin said it was the first red line in China’s relations with the U.S., which is Taiwan’s most important international backer.

“The U.S. bears unshirkable responsibility for the creation of the Taiwan issue,” he said.

Qin said the U.S. had disrespected China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity by providing defensive weapons to the island, which Beijing has said it could take by force if necessary.

He also denied U.S. allegations that China is considering providing Moscow with ammunition and artillery to aid its fight against Ukraine.

The U.S. has warned China not to supply arms to Russia for its war. China and Russia declared a “no limits” partnership weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, and China has tried to appear neutral in the conflict, refraining from condemning Russian aggression or even calling it an invasion.

Qin said Tuesday that China-Russia relations “must move steadily forward” as the world becomes more turbulent.

“China is neither the creator of the crisis nor a party to it, nor has it provided weapons to any party to the conflict, so why should China be blamed, sanctioned, pressured or even threatened?” Qin said.

He repeated calls for a negotiated solution to the Ukraine conflict. Western officials quickly dismissed a 12-point peace proposal that Beijing issued last month as too favourable to Russia.

“It is regrettable that efforts to persuade and promote talks have been undermined,” Qin said, “as if an invisible hand is pushing the conflict to escalate, taking advantage of the Ukrainian crisis to achieve certain geopolitical intentions.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/conflict-china-us-inevitable-new-foreign-minister-warns-rcna73705

[Jimbuna]

China's Xi calls for 'more quickly elevating' armed forces

BEIJING (AP) — China’s leader Xi Jinping has called for “more quickly elevating the armed forces to world-class standards,” in a speech just days after a top diplomat warned of the growing possibility of conflict with the U.S. unless Washington changes course.

China must maximize its “national strategic capabilities” in a bid to “systematically upgrade the country’s overall strength to cope with strategic risks, safeguard strategic interests and realize strategic objectives,” Xi said Wednesday.

His remarks to delegates in the ceremonial parliament representing the People's Liberation Army, the military wing of the ruling Communist Party, and the paramilitary People's Armed Police, were carried by the official Xinhua News Agency.

Xi issued a series of calls to accelerate the build-up of self-reliance in science and technology, bolster strategic capabilities in emergency fields, make industrial and supply chains more resilient and make national reserves “more capable of safeguarding national security.”

The program laid out by Xi dovetails with a number of national strategies already underway, including the “Made in China 2025” campaign to make China dominant in 10 key fields from integrated circuits to aerospace, and a decades-old campaign for civilian-military integration in the economy.

Xi also mentioned the need for “achieving the goals for the centenary of the PLA in 2027,” a date by which, according to some U.S. observers, China intends to have the capability of conquering self-governing Taiwan, an American ally, by military means.

China has defined the centenary goals in mostly vague terms, such as greater "informatization" and raising the PLA to “world-class standards."

China needs to build “a strong system of strategic deterrent forces, raise the presence of combat forces in new domains and of new qualities, and deeply promote combat-oriented military training,” according to a speech Xi gave last year.

On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Qin Gang had warned in unusually stark terms about the possibility of U.S.-China frictions leading to something more dire.

“If the United States does not hit the brake, but continues to speed down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can prevent derailing and there surely will be conflict and confrontation,” Qin said in his first news conference since taking up his post last year.

“Such competition is a reckless gamble, with the stakes being the fundamental interests of the two peoples and even the future of humanity,” he added.

That echoed remarks made by Xi on Monday to delegates that seemed to underscore Chinese frustration with U.S. restrictions on access to technology and its support for Taiwan and regional military blocs in unusually blunt terms.

“Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented grave challenges to our nation’s development,” Xi was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua News Agency.

A State Department spokesperson, Ned Price, responded by saying Washington wants to “coexist responsibly” within the global trade and political system and has no intention of suppressing China.

“This is not about containing China. This is not about suppressing China. This is not about holding China back,” Price said in Washington. “We want to have that constructive competition that is fair” and “doesn’t veer into that conflict.”

Meanwhile on Wednesday, Gen. Laura J. Richardson, Commander of the U.S. Southern Command, which is responsible for South America and the Caribbean, testified before the House Armed Services Committee that China and Russia were “malign actors" that are “aggressively exerting influence over our democratic neighbors.”

China is “spreading its malign influence, wielding its economic might, and conducting gray zone activities to expand its military and political access and influence,” Richardson said.

“This is a strategic risk that we can’t accept or ignore," she added.

Among other activities, China has built a massive embassy in the Bahamas, just 80 kilometers (50 miles) off the coast of Florida.

“Presence and proximity absolutely matter, and a stable and secure Western Hemisphere is critical to homeland defense,” Richardson said.

On Thursday, Beijing's Foreign Ministry dismissed U.S. questions and criticisms of Chinese intentions as an attempt to “make excuses for its military expansion and pursuit of hegemony."

“Before criticizing and blaming other countries, the U.S., as the only military superpower armed to the teeth, should reflect on what it can and should do,” spokesperson Mao Ning said at a daily briefing.

In a nod to a China-U.S. relationship that has sunk to its lowest level in decades, she said Washington "should meet China halfway and push China-U.S. relations back on the track of sound and stable development, which is beneficial to both countries and the world.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/us/china-s-xi-calls-for-more-quickly-elevating-armed-forces/ar-AA18oqge?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a1c425e56f62418e829496aa84bc6687&ei=27

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHi1b6jId70

[Skybird]

Hypothetical, but still impressively close to reality - most likely.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJXWJ-Px5tU


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzw68Wt77aA

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIqqGBsCIoY

[Catfish]

^ wth lol

[Jimbuna]

I wonder which one will dare take a sip from the cups on the table :)

China's President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow next week to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, officials say.

The Kremlin said they would discuss a "comprehensive partnership and strategic co-operation".

The visit comes as Beijing, an ally of Russia, has offered proposals to end the war in Ukraine, to which the West has given a lukewarm reception.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64986486

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GW0RI0h14Zs

[mapuc]

China claim they have chased an American vessel away from their waters. USA denies this.

I think in this case China is right..Not meaning they did chase this American vessel away No

It means that the commander on this vessel had so much common sense to not start a fight/war with this vessel/China

He knew that this was not the place nor the time.

As some military strategy once said
"Choose your fight and chose where.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHB8pMZvr1o

[Rockstar]

https://youtu.be/7FgykoiAxR8

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrroiM4m6qk

[Rockstar]

Xi snubbed Putin after their summit, calling a meeting of Central Asian countries as part of an audacious power play

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/xi-snubbed-putin-after-their-summit-calling-a-meeting-of-central-asian-countries-as-part-of-an-audacious-power-play/ar-AA18Zdrl

China's leader, Xi Jinping, has called a meeting of former-Soviet Central Asian countries, in an audacious power play in Russia's backyard the week of his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Xi invited the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to the first China-Central Asia summit on Wednesday, the AFP news agency reported. It remains unclear whether the reclusive state of Turkmenistan has been invited.

The states are all former members of the Soviet Union, and Moscow has long regarded them as being in its sphere of influence after the then-Russian Empire conquered them in the 19th century.

The move came as Xi was visiting Putin in Moscow as part of a 3-day-summit which concluded Wednesday, in which the nations pledged to deepen and extend their cooperation — and Xi signaled that Russia would have continued Chinese backing in its invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts say that China has secured significant leverage over Russia in return for its diplomatic and economic support, and that in calling the meeting of Central Asian nations it is seeking to exploit that advantage.

"I'm not sure this China initiate is greeted with enthusiasm in the Kremlin," tweeted Carl Bildt, the cochair of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

"Agree. i'm also not sure the Kremlin has much they can do about it," replied Ian Bremmer, a political scientist and founder of the Eurasia Group.

Russia in launching its invasion of Ukraine last year sought to regain its control over the former Soviet state, which in recent years sought closer ties with the West.

But the invasion has stalled, amid steep military losses for Russia, and a knock-on effect has been that the former Soviet states in Central Asia have become increasingly open in their defiance of the Kremlin.

In one striking example, Kazakhstan's President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, declined to recognize the legitimacy claims by pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine while sharing a stage with Putin at an economic forum in St Petersburg.

China in recent years has increased its economic and security ties with Central Asian nations, which have abundant mineral resources and lie on ancient trade routes between east and west.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dc1e67Xy74

[ET2SN]

^ This is going to be risky.
IMO, Taiwan should not look like they are kow-tow-ing when China is acting so aggressive. It would be like inviting the PRC to come for a visit and they show up with 12 divisions. :doh:

[Jimbuna]

^Agreed :yep:

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKBaP0rPWdw

[Jimbuna]

I'm not sure what thet would do but something is telling me matters are coming to a climax.

China threatens retaliation if U.S. House speaker meets Taiwan president
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/china-threatens-retaliation-if-u-s-house-speaker-meets-taiwan-president/ar-AA19cIuj?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=42edadb8e44e474e8f06f6fc41b91dff&ei=65

[Rockstar]

Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War The World Should Take Him Seriously

By John Pomfret and Matt Pottinger
March 29, 2023

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/xi-jinping-says-he-preparing-china-war

Chinese leader Xi Jinping says he is preparing for war. At the annual meeting of China’s parliament and its top political advisory body in March, Xi wove the theme of war readiness through four separate speeches, in one instance telling his generals to “dare to fight.” His government also announced a 7.2 percent increase in China’s defense budget, which has doubled over the last decade, as well as plans to make the country less dependent on foreign grain imports. And in recent months, Beijing has unveiled new military readiness laws, new air-raid shelters in cities across the strait from Taiwan, and new “National Defense Mobilization” offices countrywide.

It is too early to say for certain what these developments mean. Conflict is not certain or imminent. But something has changed in Beijing that policymakers and business leaders worldwide cannot afford to ignore. If Xi says he is readying for war, it would be foolish not to take him at his word.

WEEPING GHOSTS, QUAKING ENEMIES

The first sign that this year’s meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference—known as the “two-sessions” because both bodies meet simultaneously—might not be business as usual came on March 1, when the top theoretical journal of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) published an essay titled “Under the Guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Army, We Will Advance Victoriously.” The essay appeared under the name “Jun Zheng”—a homonym for “military government” that possibly refers to China’s top military body, the Central Military Commission—and argued that “the modernization of national defense and the military must be accelerated.” It also called for an intensification of Military-Civil Fusion, Xi’s policy requiring private companies and civilian institutions to serve China’s military modernization effort. And riffing off a speech that Xi made to Chinse military leaders in October 2022, it made lightly veiled jabs at the United States:

In the face of wars that may be imposed on us, we must speak to enemies in a language they understand and use victory to win peace and respect. In the new era, the People’s Army insists on using force to stop fighting. . . . Our army is famous for being good at fighting and having a strong fighting spirit. With millet and rifles, it defeated the Kuomintang army equipped with American equipment. It defeated the world’s number one enemy armed to the teeth on the Korean battlefield, and performed mighty and majestic battle dramas that shocked the world and caused ghosts and gods to weep.

Even before the essay’s publication, there were indications that Chinese leaders could be planning for a possible conflict. In December, Beijing promulgated a new law that would enable the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to more easily activate its reserve forces and institutionalize a system for replenishing combat troops in the event of war. Such measures, as the analysts Lyle Goldstein and Nathan Waechter have noted, suggest that Xi may have drawn lessons about military mobilization from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s failures in Ukraine.

The law governing military reservists is not the only legal change that hints at Beijing’s preparations. In February, the top deliberative body of the National People’s Congress adopted the Decision on Adjusting the Application of Certain Provisions of the [Chinese] Criminal Procedure Law to the Military During Wartime, which, according to the state-run People’s Daily, gives the Central Military Commission the power to adjust legal provisions, including “jurisdiction, defense and representation, compulsory measures, case filings, investigation, prosecution, trial, and the implementation of sentences.” Although it is impossible to predict how the decision will be used, it could become a weapon to target individuals who oppose a takeover of Taiwan. The PLA might also use it to claim legal jurisdiction over a potentially occupied territory, such as Taiwan. Or Beijing could use it to compel Chinese citizens to support its decisions during wartime.

Since December, the Chinese government has also opened a slew of National Defense Mobilization offices—or recruitment centers—across the country, including in Beijing, Fujian, Hubei, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanghai, Sichuan, Tibet, and Wuhan. At the same time, cities in Fujian Province, across the strait from Taiwan, have begun building or upgrading air-raid shelters and at least one “wartime emergency hospital,” according to Chinese state media. In March, Fujian and several cities in the province began preventing overseas IP addresses from accessing government websites, possibly to impede tracking of China’s preparations for war.

XI’S INNER VLAD

If these developments hint at a shift in Beijing’s thinking, the two-sessions meetings in early March all but confirmed one. Among the proposals discussed by the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference—the advisory body—was a plan to create a blacklist of pro-independence activists and political leaders in Taiwan. Tabled by the popular ultranationalist blogger Zhou Xiaoping, the plan would authorize the assassination of blacklisted individuals—including Taiwan’s vice president, William Lai Ching-te—if they do not reform their ways. Zhou later told the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao that his proposal had been accepted by the conference and “relayed to relevant authorities for evaluation and consideration.” Proposals like Zhou’s do not come by accident. In 2014, Xi praised Zhou for the “positive energy” of his jeremiads against Taiwan and the United States.

Also at the two-sessions meetings, outgoing Premier Li Keqiang announced a military budget of 1.55 trillion yuan (roughly $224.8 billion) for 2023, a 7.2 percent increase from last year. Li, too, called for heightened “preparations for war.” Western experts have long believed that China underreports its defense expenditures. In 2021, for instance, Beijing claimed it spent $209 billion on defense, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute put the true figure at $293.4 billion. Even the official Chinese figure exceeds the military spending of all the Pacific treaty allies of the United States combined (Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand), and it is a safe bet China is spending substantially more than it says.

But the most telling moments of the two-sessions meetings, perhaps unsurprisingly, involved Xi himself. The Chinese leader gave four speeches in all—one to delegates of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, two to the National People’s Congress, and one to military and paramilitary leaders. In them, he described a bleak geopolitical landscape, singled out the United States as China’s adversary, exhorted private businesses to serve China’s military and strategic aims, and reiterated that he sees uniting Taiwan and the mainland as vital to the success of his signature policy to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese ethnos.”

In his first speech on March 6, Xi appeared to be girding China’s industrial base for struggle and conflict. “In the coming period, the risks and challenges we face will only increase and become more severe,” he warned. “Only when all the people think in one place, work hard in one place, help each other in the same boat, unite as one, dare to fight, and be good at fighting, can they continue to win new and greater victories.” To help the CCP achieve these “greater victories,” he vowed to “correctly guide” private businesses to invest in projects that the state has prioritized.

Xi also blasted the United States directly in his speech, breaking his practice of not naming Washington as an adversary except in historical contexts. He described the United States and its allies as leading causes of China’s current problems. “Western countries headed by the United States have implemented containment from all directions, encirclement and suppression against us, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development,” he said. Whereas U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has emphasized “guardrails” and other means of slowing the deterioration of U.S.-China relations, Beijing is clearly preparing for a new, more confrontational era.

On March 5, Xi gave a second speech laying out a vision of Chinese self-sufficiency that went considerably further than any of his previous discussions of the topic, saying China’s march to modernization is contingent on breaking technological dependence on foreign economies—meaning the United States and other industrialized democracies. Xi also said that he wants China to end its reliance on imports of grain and manufactured goods. “In case we’re short of either, the international market will not protect us,” Xi declared. Li, the outgoing premier, emphasized the same point in his annual government “work report” on the same day, saying Beijing must “unremittingly keep the rice bowls of more than 1.4 billion Chinese people firmly in their own hands.” China currently depends on imports for more than a third of its net food consumption.

In his third speech, on March 8 to representatives from the PLA and the People’s Armed Police, Xi declared that China must focus its innovation efforts on bolstering national defense and establish a network of national reserve forces that could be tapped in wartime. Xi also called for a “National Defense Education” campaign to unite society behind the PLA, invoking as inspiration the Double Support Movement, a 1943 campaign by the Communists to militarize society in their base area of Yan’an.

In his fourth speech (and his first as a third-term president), on March 13, Xi announced that the “essence” of his great rejuvenation campaign was “the unification of the motherland.” Although he has hinted at the connection between absorbing Taiwan and his much-vaunted campaign to, essentially, make China great again, he has rarely if ever done so with such clarity.

TAKING XI SERIOUSLY

One thing that is clear a decade into Xi’s rule is that it is important to take him seriously—something that many U.S. analysts regrettably do not do. When Xi launched a series of aggressive campaigns against corruption, private enterprise, financial institutions, and the property and tech sectors, many analysts predicted that these campaigns would be short-lived. But they endured. The same was true of Xi’s draconian “zero COVID” policy for three years—until he was uncharacteristically forced to reverse course in late 2022.

Xi is now intensifying a decadelong campaign to break key economic and technological dependencies on the U.S.-led democratic world. He is doing so in anticipation of a new phase of ideological and geostrategic “struggle,” as he puts it. His messaging about war preparation and his equating of national rejuvenation with unification mark a new phase in his political warfare campaign to intimidate Taiwan. He is clearly willing to use force to take the island. What remains unclear is whether he thinks he can do so without risking uncontrolled escalation with the United States

[Skybird]

Well, Germany currently throws itself into the open arms of China over solar panels and windmill parts and according key components like it threw itself into Russia's arms over gas and oil. Nothing has been learned, absolutely nothing, the same strategic mistakes are mercilessly repeated as if the first time making them had never happened. China for the most still is seen as "profit opportunity", not as "risk for war". The energy transformation is impossible without massive material dependency on China, and so we conclude: there will be no war with China. Because war with China would mess up most favourite hobby projects of European opportunists politicians. It cannot be what should not be.



China simply is not taken seriously over here. European shortsightedness borders reality denial.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlpUrlMKQnM

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyaBibBWy6w

[Otto Harkaman]

https://youtu.be/IEsgqV4TE2Y
https://youtu.be/0JOmCcD8aP8

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7lfsBiqu-0

[Otto Harkaman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0aFqM4ES40

[Jimbuna]

This wouldn't surprise me at all.

Chinese paramilitary units with experience in dishing out the brutal repression of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang may be deployed to Taiwan once the island nation is conquered, a leading China scholar has warned. Citing a document released by the US National Defense University, author Dr Jonathan Ward warns Xi Jinping may look to model a potential occupation of Taiwan on Beijing's ongoing and brutal repression of the Uyghur people.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/xi-jinping-plotting-brutal-uyghur-style-crackdown-to-occupy-taiwan-in-event-of-invasion/ar-AA19q5gg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fce93289f024472b8aecc773000f13f7&ei=19

[Jimbuna]

HONG KONG (Reuters) - China is for the first time keeping at least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine constantly at sea, according to a Pentagon report - adding pressure on the United States and its allies as they try to counter Beijing's growing military.

The assessment of China's military said China's fleet of six Jin-class ballistic missile submarines were operating "near-continuous" patrols from Hainan Island into the South China Sea. Equipped with a new, longer-range ballistic missile, they can hit the continental United States, analysts say.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/analysis-china-s-intensifying-nuclear-armed-submarine-patrols-add-complexity-for-u-s-allies/ar-AA19rac0?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ba5d309139ac483aac8ddd653c9d641e&ei=51

[ET2SN]

They are/were supposed to be keeping at least one SSBN at sea.

That's how SSBN-based deterrence is supposed to work. :yep::03:

[Jimbuna]

The ambassador, Fu Cong, said China was not on Russia’s side in the war in Ukraine. “‘No limit’ is nothing but rhetoric,” he said, referring to a statement from last year about the countries’ relationship.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/05/world/europe/eu-china-embassador-russia-fu-cong.html

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLlDDLkvMZ8

[mapuc]

Wrote this on a friends wall. Which I see as important.


When you have to understand the actions of another country, it is very important that you do NOT proceed from your own way of thinking/thought mentality, but from the other country's way of thinking/behaving mentally.
AND this is the mistake my friends make. They think Danish while writing about China, Russia or Ukraine - just to take a few examples
They have a lot different way of thinking and acting mentally

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Furious Beijing insists Taiwan is an 'inseparable part of China' as it sends more warships and jets near island and warns Taipei's 'future lies in the 'reunification with the motherland' amid soaring tensions with the US

[Skybird]

At the same time Saudi Arabia caps oil production and sends oil prices soaring again, which helps Russia, also the Saudis are more or less openly engaged in closing their ties with China as well. It seems they are pissed a bit by endless moralising and lecturing by impertinent Europeans and American knows-it-better.

Not good.

Not forgetting here that no country in Africa and no country in Latin America and only very very few countries in Asia joined the West in its condemnation of Russia'S attack against Ukraine, and refuses to join calls for sanctions. The majority of this globe's countries and the majority of the people living on it are not siding with the West and against Russia.

It gets lonely around the West. The time they take Western missionising as inevitable, are over. American chaotic politics and European lecturing did and do their share to boost this trend.

Nicht wahr, Annalena...? ;)

[Skybird]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/xi-jinping-says-he-preparing-china-war

The world did not believe Putin when he prepared for war. Will the world learn from this and believe Xi when he prepares for war as well?

Certainly not France or the EU. Macronman wants to boost business with China again (so does Germany, but Germans were not part of the recent trip to Bejing), and Super-Uschi already switched back to the moral tutor mode and wondered why Xi almost ignored her - at least a bit more so then he was cool on Macronman's fluttering cape.

[Otto Harkaman]

https://youtu.be/w3Vos1iFp_w

[Skybird]

^Yep. Hard to disagree with.

[Jimbuna]

China rehearses 'encirclement' of Taiwan with fighter jets and ships
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/08/china-in-retaliatory-exercises-off-taiwan/

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARnBhp8Vfh4

[Skybird]

Macronman speaks the French language more and more unmistakably with a strong Chinese accent.

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/

While the Germans do not learn anything from their mistakes and with the greatest enthusiasm will to replace dependence on Russian supplies with dependence on supplies from China.

[Reece]

If China has good trade relations with a country/countries surely they are less likely to attack them. Wouldn't this be a good thing? :hmmm:

[Skybird]

The whole trading policy of Chiona is desiogned to make others dependent from them. And recently Xi has changed the foreign poltical dogmna and made it so that chian now accepts economic disruptions - for which I nevertheless tries to preare in advance - in favour of military action over Taiwan and the south chinese sea. The credit-ledning prigram and sil road also wwere meant tio make others depending on them. Just that the creidt trick does not work as intended and backfires to some degree.



China is not kind. It has a clear vision of seeing all world being dependent of it. To overthrow American military global dominance is part of that.



With trade contracts, China buys itself into the inner politics of other countries and buys influence. So i fear: no, having strong trade with China is no good thing at all. In these regards it has thrown the US out of Latin America, almost, and several Europeans out of Africa as well. And it aggressively widens it influence in the SE sphere.


When the Taiwain party launches, there will be no time left to send support to Taiwan the way it was done with Ukraine. The Chinese attack will be far more concentrated and destructive as the Russian one. I see that war not as "if", but "when". I do not count in decades anymore.

[Jimbuna]

Macronman speaks the French language more and more unmistakably with a strong Chinese accent.

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/

While the Germans do not learn anything from their mistakes and with the greatest enthusiasm will to replace dependence on Russian supplies with dependence on supplies from China.

How quickly he has forgotten who freed his country in the previous world war.

[Jimbuna]

BEIJING (Reuters) -A U.S. Navy destroyer sailed near one of the most important man-made and Chinese controlled islands in the South China Sea on Monday, in a freedom of navigation mission that Beijing denounced as illegal.

While the United States frequently makes such voyages to challenge China and other states' territorial claims in the strategic waterway, the latest one took place as Beijing staged more war games around Taiwan.

The U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet said the USS Milius engaged in "normal operations" within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands, once a reef submerged at high tide and where China has built an airport and other facilities.

"Under customary international law ... features like Mischief Reef that are submerged at high tide in their naturally formed state are not entitled to a territorial sea," the 7th Fleet said in a statement.

"The land reclamation efforts, installations, and structures built on Mischief Reef do not change this characterisation under international law."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-warship-sails-near-manmade-chinese-controlled-isle-in-s-china-sea/ar-AA19Fwqp?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=72a075272805464fa37ad10216ce8f76&ei=14

Something or someone must give before not too long, surely.

[Skybird]

How quickly he has forgotten who freed his country in the previous world war.
People do not like beign told they took somebody's help for it showed that they were weak to go the way all by themselves.



Thats no excuse, only an explanation.

[Skybird]

Guam - where America's next war may begin.


https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/04/02/guam-where-americas-next-war-may-begin

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UOjmixs6Aw

[Jimbuna]

It is now being reported that China is preparing to impose a no-fly zone just north of Taiwan after conducting three days of military drills around the island.

[Reece]

I'd say something nice about China but I might get banned from Subsim!! :k_confused:

[Skybird]

You may want to consider hoarding chips.

[Jimbuna]

China appears to backtrack over no-fly zone near Taiwan
Taipei says Beijing has confined flight ban north of island to 27 minutes on Sunday after initial three-day plan.

[Jimbuna]

Get ready ‘for real combat’ President Xi tells Chinese forces.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/get-ready-for-real-combat-president-xi-tells-chinese-forces/ar-AA19P07U?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3d77f680addb43ba8549a2203a8a2f7f&ei=22

[Otto Harkaman]

U.S., Chinese Aircraft Carriers Operating Near Taiwan, Chinese Carrier Shandong Launched 80 Fighter Missions in Weekend Drills

https://news.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/FT_4_10_23.jpg

Both a U.S. and a Chinese carrier strike group are operating near Taiwan.
The Shandong Carrier Strike Group launched 80 J-15 Flying Shark fighter missions from Friday through Sunday from People’s Liberation Army Navy carrier CNS Shandong (17)
https://news.usni.org/2023/04/10/u-s-chinese-aircraft-carriers-operating-near-taiwan-chinese-carrier-shandong-launched-80-fighter-missions-in-weekend-drills


These two carrier groups have been sparing off since January 2023
https://navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2023/january/12712-china-pla-navy-s-aircraft-carrier-shandong-confronts-us-carrier-strike-group.html

[Jimbuna]

China stalls Antony Blinken’s Beijing visit over ‘spy balloon’ concerns.
https://www.ft.com/content/d451f11d-57b6-44da-bfa8-42fc0295fc01

[Skybird]

No surprise, but often ignored in Western media debates.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/15/taiwan-china-invasion-leaked-documents/

[Jimbuna]

I don't see China having much of a problem if they do decide to attack Taiwan.

[Skybird]

Attacking Taiwan will cost them, I have no doubt, but their attack will be much, much stronger than Russia's attack on Ukraine, and it will have economically prepared much better and will have made its banking businesses harder to crack down on. And no matter what they do, the threat for our economy stays the same: either they vaporize the factories in Taiwan if Taiwanese resistence is stronger than expected, or said factories end up in China's hands, allowing it to hold a knife at the world's throat. Both scenarios are utmost desaster for us in the West.



A conquest of Taiwan would be a drama second to none for the Taiwanese, it was reported that the Chinese have plans to give the Taiwanese the same treatment they blueprinted by example of how they deal with the Uyghurs.

[Jimbuna]

^ Agreed :yep:

[Jimbuna]

China is starting to target western interests in the country after five years of snowballing trade and technology restrictions spearheaded by the US under presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Over the past two months, Chinese officials have slapped new sanctions on US weapons companies Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, launched an investigation into US chipmaker Micron, raided US due diligence firm Mintz and apprehended local staff, detained a senior executive from Japan’s Astellas Pharma group and hit London-headquartered Deloitte with a record fine. President Xi Jinping’s administration is now considering curbing western access to materials and technologies critical to the global car industry, according to a commerce ministry review.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/topstories/china-starts-surgical-retaliation-against-foreign-companies-after-us-led-tech-blockade/ar-AA19WrWM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ad3f57fe394d46ccba6cb7985c6f75ef&ei=14

[Jimbuna]

There is no let-up in the Chinese way of thinking in the South China Sea

HANOI, April 20 (Reuters) - Vietnam took aim at China on Thursday for imposing an annual ban on fishing in a vast area of the South China Sea, calling it a violation of its sovereignty and urging Beijing not to complicate matters.

China has imposed the ban each year since 1999 and Vietnam routinely opposes it. China says the ban, which will apply from May 1 to Aug. 16, is to promote sustainable fishing and improve marine ecology.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vietnam-opposes-chinas-unilateral-south-china-sea-fishing-ban-2023-04-20/

[Skybird]

Europe and the US do not practice teamplay regarding China.



https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/der-andere-blick/nach-macron-besuch-in-china-sind-eu-und-usa-auf-kollisionskurs-ld.1734231?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto


The three leading European powers Germany, France and Great Britain are each looking backwards in their own way. One has to be very naïve or very optimistic to believe that they make a significant contribution to overcoming global challenges. It's better to trust in America and a lively transatlantic partnership; or one accepts that Beijing enforces its claim to power. The series of visitors to China makes one thing abundantly clear: Europe remains a spectator in this part of the world.

[Jimbuna]

China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang said on Friday that both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to China, and that it is right and proper for China to uphold its sovereignty.

[Jimbuna]

Yet more hypocrisy from China.

Baltic states have demanded China explain itself after one of Beijing’s top European diplomats suggested that former Eastern Bloc countries had not gained sovereign status after leaving the former Soviet Union.

Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, told a French TV station that ex-Soviet republics had no “effective status” in international law, seemingly brushing aside the Baltic states’ internationally recognised sovereignty after the Soviet Union’s dissolution.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/chinese-diplomat-suggests-baltic-states-never-gained-independence-from-russia/ar-AA1adGte?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=571aaacacc7646c299f351a57a825d8b&ei=18

[Jimbuna]

China has sought to distance itself from controversial remarks about the sovereignty of Ukraine after widespread outrage. China's Paris ambassador Lu Shaye made the comments last week, and now Bejing has been urged to clarify its position. On Monday, China's foreign ministry rowed back against the comments and insisted that Beijing respected the independence of all post-Soviet republics, rejecting Lu's position.

According to a statement from the Chinese embassy in Paris, Lu's remarks were viewed as a personal point of view and should not be taken too seriously.

[Skybird]

Good cop bad cop.

[Jimbuna]

Possibly but I suspect all part of the overall plan to keep the West guessing.

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87N4HZs9XX4

[Catfish]

Europe and the US do not practice teamplay regarding China.
https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/der-andere-blick/nach-macron-besuch-in-china-sind-eu-und-usa-auf-kollisionskurs-ld.1734231?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto

"Baerbock sollte die Amtsbezeichnung Aussenministerin ablegen und sich fortan Ministerin für das Wahre, Schöne und Gute nennen."
:rotfl2:

[mapuc]

"Baerbock sollte die Amtsbezeichnung Aussenministerin ablegen und sich fortan Ministerin für das Wahre, Schöne und Gute nennen."
:rotfl2:

Gibt es etwas so eine dinge - Ministerin ?

Markus

[Catfish]

ja, Ministerin gibt es schon länger. Aber der Arbeitsbereich :har:

[mapuc]

The crisis will get worse....then some couple of years from now everything will return to normal, as normal it use to be.

See China as male dog, who has to mark its territory.

Markus

[Skybird]

Gibt es etwas so eine dinge - Ministerin ?

Markus
male: Minister

female: Ministerin (or as I sometimes mock: Ministress. Well, Baerbock certainly is Maxistress).

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsrHpsTFTp0

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YM8sQqGbb0k

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LFa3GeG76Y

[mapuc]

The Chinese-Taiwanese issue is a Gordian knot

Markus

[Skybird]

The Chinese-Taiwanese issue is a Gordian knot

Markus
Then only the Alexander manouver helps.

[Jimbuna]

I much prefer the Heimlich Maneuver myself.