(Crazy) economy news

[Skybird]

German comparison site Svada offers the first credit with negative "interests" (-0.4) for private customers. Life is fixed to 36 months. Limit is 1000 Euros. You lease 1000 Euros. Three years later you pay back 996 Euros.

Before you think this is good news, think twice. Its a sign of how desperate and insane the market situation is.

[Jimbuna]

Hasn't this already happened previously in some Scandinavian countries?

[Skybird]

^ I don't know, I have never heared of that.

---------------

This bases on official statistics of the German federal office for statistics. It calculates how much worth 100 Euros today would be if you had saved them back in the years of the list. The calculation bases on the inflation rates in Germany since then. The exchange rate D-Mark - Euro has been considered as well.

100 € = 195.58 DM

The term "inflation" means that the ammount of money tokens and book money gets "inflated". This makes money more expensive, and reduces its value. - No, this is not contradicting. If you had bought five items of something costing you 100 Euros lets say 15 years ago, today you would get for the same money of 100 Euros just 4 such items. - In the past you had to invest :D 5 such items to get 100 Euros. Today you already get those 100 Euros for just 4 such items you have to give.

Inflation does not mean that "prices go up". They do go up to compensate for the devaluation of money, but climbing prices it is not the primary meaning of the term inflation, but just a consequence of inflation. Inflation'S primary meaning is increasment of the ammount of money, and by that devaluation of it. Prices going up are not he the cause, but a following symptom of it.

And consider this: with for example a gold-standard currency, you cannot have inflation. To create inflation, you need a planned currency of unlimited availability: paper money that bases not on securities of limited availability that would hinder its inflating.

https://f100-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/s--ryQLwtVs--/w_1200/v1/a/public/v1jqjirosqrb0wcgco1f.jpg

Stable currencies? Stable Deutschmark? Urban legends. Not with paper money, my friends. Where they talk of wanted inflation, this compares to reducing the content in precious metal in a "gold thaler" or a silverdollar. Originally, such coins were pure precious metals. The coin had the value not because of a value commanded for it by somebody, the state, but because it contained the amount of precious metal printed on it - Dollar, thaler, and so many other names of currencies of the past were weight units by original meaning, like Karat for diamonds. "1 dollar" means 1 weight-unit (dollar) of silver, and was worth what the market paid for that lot of silver. It thus was not important who minted the coin, and so there were private mints. - Before the American civil war, the American dollar was minted by over half a dozens mints, you literally had different silverdollars, and I think most of those mints were private ones, not state-run. No problem in that. That a state must "control the money making", is a lie thta serves state/politician/gangster interests:

When kings and states started desiring to spend more than they could afford by their possessions in silver and gold, they started to secure the minting monopoly for themselves, killed the private competition by law or execution, and then started to reduce the ammount of gold in a gold thaler, silver in a silver thaler. ( Very brief historic summary, I know, I just focus on the main strain here, to keep it simple.) By this, they created forged silver and gold coins, and had more of them, claiming their value to be that of the original amount of precious metal in them that they no longer had. This way, they could buy more stuff and pay more bills. But a silver dollar does not have one dollar of silver in it, and a gold thaler has not one thaler of gold in it. It is less.

Its as if you buy a tetrapack of 500ml with milk, and they print on it: "1 litre".

Penultimately it led to the creation of forged paper money with no inherent value at all, and the banning of precious metal-covered money. Politicians can raise unlimited promises to get elected only, when they have unlimited amounts of money available. Gold and silver set natural such limits, and therefore they had to be destroyed, from the gangsters' point of view.

Central banks know all this, that is why they hold so enormous ammounts of gold in their treasury, over 40 thousand tons, I think, but I am not certain. If they were right in their lies they tell the people - that gold is no money and is stupid to hold - why are they so eager to posses as much of it as they can afford, and some even buying as if there is no tomorrow (Russia, China, India as well with its private gold prohibition since earlier this year)...? Because they know that these things represnt real market value , while paper money does not. They violate their own advise they give to people, and they do so on purpose . Because they want the real value of gold from the people, and want the people to trade it for forged, worthless paper money that notorioulsy gets devalued by inflation.

A criminal scheme is going on.

Lesson of it all? You cannot create wealth by printing money. In fact you loose wealth by printing money, and the more you insist on the dogma of a wanted inflation, the more you try to extinguish the fire by spilling fuel into it.

[Onkel Neal]

Good post, Sky. I agree, we're in strange times. Just look who is President of the USA

[Skybird]

Good post, Sky. I agree, we're in strange times. Just look who is President of the USA
Two quotes from the master himself:

"The gold standard did not collapse. Governments abolished it in order to pave the way for inflation. The whole grim apparatus of oppression and coercion, policemen, customs guards, penal courts, prisons, in some countries even executioners, had to be put into action in order to destroy the gold standard."

"The illusiveness of this concept of national income is to be seen in its dependence on changes in the purchasing power of the monetary unit. The more inflation progresses, the higher rises the national income."

L.v. Mises

"Strange times", Neal? Absolutely terrifying, I say. ;) Beyond "dug deep in and take cover", I have run out of advice.

[Skybird]

https://mises.org/library/money-supply-growth-falls-again-dropping-105-month-low

Lets celebrate. Maybe not. No, better not.

[Skybird]

Eu explores account freezes

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-banks-deposits-idUSKBN1AD1RS

No real surprise, but nice to see a smoking gun. Maybe it makes some more people think. For my own part, I finished my preparations by now - what I think I can do in this messy situation, I think I have done. Maybe not one year too early - who knows. Things can turn nasty in ten months, in ten days, or in ten years. It is this total unpredictability that made me withdrawing completely from stockmarket transactions. You do not need an uncertainty indicator of 90% - chances of 50:50 already means that evertyhing is possioble and all outcomes realising are totally random.

And what is the result of these efforts to keep failing banks alive? You keep alive banks that are not able to live by themselves, and all others pay for this. Like subsidizing economic branches that are not competitive, and subsidizing companies that without subsidies would die. This way, you constantly increase the need for for more and more subsidies, since the uncompetitive actors get artificaly kept alive, and caus eplenty of fallout.

Its part of market economy to let unhealthy players down. The opposite to market economy, is planned economy. And we know from amyn historixc examples - and currently Venezuela - where this leads to, inevitably. From weakening to collapsing, from collapsing to dying.

[Skybird]

The Bitcoin got split.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40800270

I have a very alarmed sentiment about cryptocurrencies. To me, they are a hype. You can gamble and win a stash, yes, but also, it is a snowball system.

Consider that most of the quantity of cryptocurrency units gets invested into - other cryptocurrencies. Consider that cryptocurrencies do not have any inherent value at all, not even the few pennies it costs to have the paper and ink for printing a banknote. A cryptocurrency unit in itself is a certain quantity of - nothing. It represents no material value at all. It has no securities at all. And now big gamblers "invest" big ammounts of nothing into other nothings. This cannot be good. Real money is no "dissipative structure" and no "self-emerging order". It is a material trading good of inherent value representing it's material value the market gives for it. FIAT paper money and cryptocurrencies are that NOT.

The Bitcoin split means that one of the arguments in defence of Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies, that they are limited in availability and cannot see their total ammount of units in circulaiton bengn artificially inflated, is wrong. What this split means, in the end, is right this: inflation. It is an increasing of the speed of blockchain transacitons - but also of unit mining. And that compares to switching on the money printer. Its a wanted inflation, although wanted for other reasons than why central banks want to inflate paper money and book money. Or maybe not...? :hmmm: maybe the real difference is not the motivation, but the persons having the motivation.

There is nothing of value in all this. No real material something of anything. Its paper money without money, its book money. Talking about a glass of water does not ease your thirst, since you still cannot drink it.

The algorithms generating it, can be manipulated or replaced obviously - this is what has been done now. The comparison to precious metals and their limited availability for raising mining production arbitrarily and without limits, is not correct. You cannot increase at arbitrary will the ammount of silver or gold or plation getting mined, there are practial limits. With cryptocurrencies, there are just - conventions. Like conventions for paper money.

Also note that the currency moners have their own interest to mine: profit. The ygte paid for running the infrastructre needed to do these immense calcualiton that shoudl simulate the mininmg of gold on the mountain. Just that Bitcoin mining never creates any ore.

The part of the technology that I like, is the blockchain. That can be used for transaction outside the monitoring and control of a third party, and it does not really matter what currency gets traded there. It reminds a bit of the Middle Eastern transaction method named Hawala. The trust element in Hawala gets replaced with the blockchain's thousands and thousands of copying databases - mere trust (or finding out that this trust was undeserved...) is not even needed. Banks have no place in this. Or men in the middle.

And states cannot control the people's property and wealth, thats why they hate Hawala and cryptocurrencies. It threatens their own powers.

Recommend blockchain technology to people, guys - but warn people of cryptocurrencies. Both are not the same. Investing into cryptocurrencies, is no investing, since investing means to invest into something material at a time when its market/trade value for reasons that do not really matter is lower than its real inherent value. You then invest and see it grow, creating you a profit to compensate you for the risk you took. To "invest" into something of nill, zero, no value, that is most likely the latest hype of a snowballing system, and that has no inherent material value at all, is no invest,ment - its gambling. You could as well go ito the casino and put money on numbers at the roulette table. That also is a gamble, its not an investment.

We need a material fundament for the currency units we do trades in. So that they are like tickets you get when handing over your coat while visitiong a show in the theatre. For every ticket handed out, there is a coat brought in. For every ticket given back, one coat gets given back. THAT is money. FIAT paper money does not fulfill this condition, book money does not - and cryptomoney also does not.

Be on your guards. Its a bubble, created by a snowball system. From nothing comes nothing - you better believe in that. I like the blockchain concept - but I do not see cryptocurrencies as one bit better than FIAT money. And by now you should really know how much I love the concept of FIAT money.

[Skybird]

And I always thought of you as the captain of Subsim's youth team... Stayed young at heart, eh? ;)

[Gerald]

Interesting post Sky.:yep:

[Skybird]

Didn't I give enough candy, or why is somebody playing tricks on me? Whoever you are, next time ring the door bell at least once!

Vendor, the above post belongs in the thread on your retirement, and I swear that is where I have posted it, since this thread here is (was) not even on page one anymore.

[Gerald]

Subsim's youth team... Stayed young at heart, ehVery kind of ya,I shall stay strong.:03:

[Skybird]

The Analyst-Website Digiconomist estimates the electrical power needed by the Bitcoin over one year to be in the range of 32 TWh. :doh: Already in 2014, mathematics of the university of Maynooth compared the ammount of electricity it consumes with that of whole Ireland.

All that power - for somethign that is nothing, but claimed to be everything.

:doh:

The emperor's new clothings. Naked he promenades around. The people cheer and applaud. Soon those who still wear textile clothings, will get defamed, even criminalised.

[Skybird]

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-43176522/venezuelan-cash-crisis-where-a-coffee-costs-wads-of-banknotes

The author is illustrating nicely what hyperinflation looks like. However, where he said part of the problem is that the banks have no more cash, he shows that he has misunderstood the problem. Cash there always is enough, and you do not solve anything by pouring even more cash into a system. The problem is the devaluing of money that it means when you inflate the amount of cash in circulation, and tokens of money being artificially created pointless crap having zero value in themselves.

Inflation rate 13000 percent. While having the biggest oil reserves in the world. Socialism scores big time once again. :yeah:

[Skybird]

The perfect storm.

https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.focus.de%2Ffinanzen%2Fboerse%2 Finterview-mit-autor-des-draghi-crashs-banken-insider-warnt-in-zwei-jahren-fliegt-uns-das-system-um-die-ohren_id_8570527.html&edit-text=

[Skybird]

Italian central bank finds: redistribution leads to corruption.


https://www.austriancenter.com/italy-central-bank-redistribution-corruption/

Quelle surprise!

[STEED]

Next financial crisis 'has begun and will be worse than 2008 crash,' economists warn

The beginnings of another financial crisis are already in motion - and it will be worse than the global meltdown of 2008.

That's the opinion of one of the select band of economists who predicted the 2008 economic collapse, which started with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers bank a decade ago and ended up affecting every country in the world.

Ann Pettifor predicted that crisis in 2006, more than two years before it actually struck.

Now she thinks the global economy is in danger once more thanks to huge corporate debt, and the prospect of rising interest rates in the United States.

She told Sky News that global debt was now more than three times the level of global GDP.https://news.sky.com/story/next-financial-crisis-has-begun-and-will-be-worse-than-2008-crash-economists-warn-11497433


WOOHOO WE'RE IN THE MONEY WE'RE IN THE MONEY.....

Yes the bankers are singing as they never loose.

I will say this yes it will be worst than the last one and the one to come after this predicted one will be even more worst and so on until the whole system collapses.

[Skybird]

Its no new crisis, its the same old crisis that never had paused anyway. Only the symptoms of the next outbreak will be different ones, will be even tougher ones than last time. A new bubble has formed, and it is not specified to just one or two item categories, but seems to include it all, its the "all inclusive" bubble.

Debts, both state-wise and households-wise, are higher than ever before. Interest rates were perverted into something that lies and tells not the truth about risks and state of economies anymore. The gap between GDPs and private household savings, since long serving as an alarm indicator, has never been as huge as it is now and has never increased as steeply as in the past years.

Secure all stations, tighten all loose things - another symptom push is incoming, and it will be far worse than ten years ago. And yes, it could be big enough to break the system, maybe, due to the inner dynamic of such events unfolding being unpredictable, chaotic. And the Socialists and Keynesians still fight the fire by spilling more fuel into it. :/\\!!

[Skybird]

About the brutality and unscrupelousness by which the German states has repeatedl plundered German citizens and owebers of some wealth in case of "currency reforms". If you think you are safe when owning property, think again. Property makes you a preferred victim (beside owners of gold). Not to mention that property that you use for your own living-in, is no in vetsm,ent, but costs you more in running maiteance and fees, than a real ivestement where oyu expect to be rewarded for your money-lenidng with a regular interest or one-time-profit.



https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.welt.de%2Ffinanzen%2Farticle13 825424%2FImmobilien-sind-keine-Rettung-beim-Waehrungscrash.html&edit-text=


Nightmarish. I know why not to trust states and condemn all politicians. Never.



Who believes in "stable" paper money currencies, has not understood that the paper money was enforced by unscrupolous polit gangsters right to prevent stability and to provoke instability, and the ability to inflate money by states. Which is why they created central banks. Central banks should be called "ministries of fraud and betrayal". And "currency reforms" compare to the looting of a fallen city after it was defeated in battle with its walls brought down, and left its citizens as defenceless prey.

[Skybird]

What...? Growing resistance to completely cashless society models even in - Sweden...?


https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Fwirtschaft%2Fsozia les%2Fschweden-das-land-in-dem-das-bargeld-zunehmend-abgeschafft-wird-a-1231216.html&edit-text=

[Skybird]

Former head of FED Paul Volcke fires a full broadside against the FED.

https://mises.org/power-market/paul-volckers-new-memoir-broadside-against-his-successors?fbclid=IwAR0YOCFC4DHbnyiDESwcYrjEavp3c6 Lu98XRPf0JTVhdQH6Q6JkBXp2z18M


And he is not even an "Austrian".

[Skybird]

The Italian crisis is about to blow up and righ tinto our face



https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.focus.de%2Ffinanzen%2Fboerse%2 Fmr-dax-im-interview-italien-fliegt-uns-um-die-ohren_id_9904721.html&edit-text=


I'm getting nthe shivers when seeing the German Target-2 Saldi - almost one trillion. Money that is lost to germany if the Euro madness collapses.



That Merkel allowed over one decade that this immense sum accumulates, building an irresistable potential for blackmailing Germany: for this sin alone already Merkel should be lined up against a wall and shot. The germans should have threatened world war 3, so to speak, to prevent the ECB policies of the past ten years. Instead the yhelped Draghi into office, and now have given up ambitions to have the German head of the Bundesbank as Draghis successor.



Stupid, stupid, stupid Germans. I often feel ashamed to admit I was born as a German. Not because the Nazi past, but because of the German servility and stupidity of the present.



What happened to achieving, what happened to self-responsiblity, what happened to accountability? It all was given up and thrown over board for sentimental babbling, blackmailed "solidarity", and "social conscience". Uuuaaaaah! Pfui Deibel! This masochistic determination to be servile and weak and vulnerable makes me sick. So foul and rotten it all smells.

[Jimbuna]

Well I wouldn't consider moving to the UK because after that almost treasonable act we witnessed yesterday it would appear the UK is headed in the same direction.

[STEED]

Well I wouldn't consider moving to the UK because after that almost treasonable act we witnessed yesterday it would appear the UK is headed in the same direction.


Pizza Hut? :hmmm:


Mmmm...pizza. :DL

[Jimbuna]

More likely SPAM

[STEED]

Trouble is there are plenty of black holes making these things vanish.


Sky you should watch the Keiser Report.


Yea I know it's on shifty RT. :shifty:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlveZE_kr80

[Skybird]

I'm getting nthe shivers when seeing the German Target-2 Saldi - almost one trillion. Money that is lost to germany if the Euro madness collapses.


A moment of intellectual shortcut by me. The correct version of this sentence of course must be:

Money that is lost to Germany if the Euro madness collapses or not. In either case, it will never come back.

Its all about just keeping the illusion alive - and avoid getting caught in the act.

Euro socialists now want a European unemplyoment and social wellfare insurrance. Its the collectivisation of national mismanagement and debts without calling these crimes by this name. The powers trying to manage better get punished, their citizens expropriated, their future and older age plundered - for the sake of keeping alive more and more uncompetitive zombie companies, and mismanaging states that live beyond their means.

And Germans even applaud for this! :o

[Skybird]

Hitler and Keynes are not that different, and they both get embraced in their socialist economic views by present Western "democracies" - planned economies would be the more correct term. I have prwached since years that the Third Reich was a socialist tyranny,a dnthat it is one of the greast prpaganda coups in history ever that the Sovjets managed and the left today still manages to maintain the illusion that they as "left" politicians are the oppositeand the curing antidot to the right-ness of the Nazis. Socialists and Nazis are in principle chuldren of the same spirit, one and the same thing, the Nazis only focussed on racism against Jews where socialists focus on envy and defamation of those who have more than others to make it easiert to expropriate them. Plundeirng and exproprzating they both did, just their alibis were and are different: Jews here, and generally rich people (Jewish or not) there.


https://mises.org/library/hitlers-economics



Perhaps the worst part of these policies is that they are inconceivable without a leviathan state, exactly as Keynes said. A government big enough and powerful enough to manipulate aggregate demand is big and powerful enough to violate people's civil liberties and attack their rights in every other way. Keynesian (or Hitlerian) policies unleash the sword of the state on the whole population. Central planning, even in its most petty variety, and freedom are incompatible.
Ever since 9/11 and the authoritarian, militarist response, the political left has warned that Bush is the new Hitler, while the right decries this kind of rhetoric as irresponsible hyperbole. The truth is that the left, in making these claims, is more correct than it knows. Hitler, like FDR, left his mark on Germany and the world by smashing the taboos against central planning and making big government a seemingly permanent feature of Western economies.
People should fight without remorse and tear down any such state. Bot they just don't do it, accept to obvey in obedient servility and once again prefer to be led once again into the next incarnation of always one and the same basic pattern of disaster once again. We have career politicians not because they are so clever - we have them because the plebs is so dumb.

Thats maybe the best diagnosis explaining both the the hybris and the doom of the West, but many other nations in the world as well: its always about "once again".

[Skybird]

The Washington Institute of International Finance published its yearly global debt monitor. Global debt has grown by over 12% (=27 trillion US$) compared to 2016. The total now is 244 trillion US$ - which means it is more than three times as big as the global gross domestic product (318% of global GDP, to be precisely).

Nobody can seriously argue that our fincial management and economic handling fo thigns really is self-sustaining. Its all big show on the nod.

If you wonder who will get the bill smacked into his face sooner or later: if you are older, your children. If you are young, you. In the end we're all dead. Praise Keynes. Praise deep state corruption. Believe in the gosple of the inflatable paper money.

[Skybird]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-01/these-billionaires-are-issuing-terrifying-warnings-about-global-debt-levels



The US government has $22 trillion of debt and is running $1 trillion+ deficits every year. There’s a record $15 trillion of corporate debt. And the US consumer has racked up around $4 trillion of debt (not including mortgages).
(...)

So, $22 trillion in the whole and a $1 trillion deficit in a good year. Not to mention, interest rates are rising, which means all of this debt is just getting more expensive.
(...)

The government already spends 28% of its revenue just on interest (at a time when interest rates are near all-time lows).
Bee scared indeed. You have reason to be.



The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both essentially reneged on their plans to start tightening monetary policy. And yesterday, the Federal Reserve has signaled it will stop hiking rates.

Didn't I predict the FED will end QE again after much shorter time than anyone expected? I did. Its all too much off balance. We are in the clinch of the vortex, and there is no more an escape option. We let all chances pass by when there was time left for any course altertaiton to grow sufficnetly in pace so to b reak thoprugh the inner dynamics.


Its like a spaceship getting too close to a black hole. Once the distance has shrunk so much that the engines cannot compensate for the growing gravitation anymore, all things are lost. Your only chance was never to get too close in the first. But we have, and we laughed, and now we are doomed.



The writing already is on all walls, and the signs materialise more and more clearly for everyone with eyes to see.



The only thing I find to be unclear now is how China will getr through the storm ahead. By econiomic treends it is set to overtrake the US as the totally biggest economic prizucer by around the year 2030. It is unclear to me how soft or how hard it will be hit by the implosion of the dollar.



Russia probably is set up best. The bear spend the past years to dug his winter cave especially deep and plaster it with all gold he could find. They have almost no dollar bonds and reserves left, just a tiny and in itself irrelevant fraction of what they once held.



Ironically I think that especially Germany will be hit especially hard this time. When the drama unfolds and crumbles the economy, all the high maintenance costs politicians have established in the past twenty years will come to bera in fukll, and the social structure of the civil society will collapse. What Germany has build in the past fifteen years or so - is just a glorious illusion. A castle build on quick sand. The German business depends to a hilarious ammount on the low wage sector, more than in any other Western country. It is here were people will suffer first, and it is this were the riots and unrest there will be will start at.

[bstanko6]

Isolationism. There was a time you had only the money that was in your county reserve. No more no less. All this borrowing, lending, spending...

When the global depression hits, we all need to go back to the isolationist ways. US was an economic powerhouse without foreign investments.

Now we have "paper" billionaires. On books they have cash but couldn't pull that money out to put in their pocket right now if they could... doesn't exist!

Am I right or crazy?

[Skybird]

Matching the above post is the fact that last year the central banks, who try to convince the private people that gold is useless to hold and is no real, clever money these days, have bought the highest yearly ammount of gold since the gold-dollar linking was broken up by Nixon in 1971, or 1972. Never before in the past 47 years central banks a bought so hectically and so much gold, like 2018.



Again especially Russia's role in this is outstanding. They buy gold sicne many years and in reverse got rid of their dollar reserves and US bonds. They just hold a tiny fractionof what they hd just a few years before, and what they still have, 14 billion in US reserves, in itself is practically meaningless.



Why do central banks do this if in their own words it is stupid to hold gold reserves?


I think some thinking about the reasons of this is in everybody's most essential interest.

[Skybird]

Isolationism. There was a time you had only the money that was in your county reserve. No more no less. All this borrowing, lending, spending...

When the global depression hits, we all need to go back to the isolationist ways. US was an economic powerhouse without foreign investments.

Now we have "paper" billionaires. On books they have cash but couldn't pull that money out to put in their pocket right now if they could... doesn't exist!

Am I right or crazy?
thats why I am intersted to see how China will do. The Western dominance in globla trade of the past two hundred years, was just an anomaly in the past two millenia. Because except in those two hundred years the by far dominating and most powerful trading nations in the world were China, and India. And with their modern Silk Route project and the outlook to overtake the US in net productive economy size around the year 2030, by today'S trends, nobody can say that they just will fall victim to whatever happens to the West.



Just compare how little time it takes them to build a huge and fully functional international airport - and how long it takes the Germans. :D The construction expertise of the world these days sits not in Germany or America, but China. They want it - so they decide it, they do it and they put all effort needed into it. Period. Germany should turn pale in embarassment.



And its not just the airport in Berlin. Itds also the govenrment's aircraft flying from it. :har:


On a sidenote, Lufthansa considers to withdraw from the never ending drama around Berlin airport, and cancelling any plan to build a base there. Mind you, this was meant to be a prestige project and the national capital's primary airport for which Tempelhof got shut down and Tegel still is planned to be shut down.

[Skybird]

The ICF, FED, ECB and central banks now plan to widen the most malicious major crime they have ever pulled so far.


If the economy deteriorates, the central banks try to stimulate the economy with interest rate cuts. However, interest rates for many central banks can hardly fall even lower. Therefore, the IMF has another idea of ​​how the economy could be boosted: with a tax on cash.

Many investors are worried that the euro-zone economy will soon slip into recession, while the US economy may well fare shortly thereafter. Therefore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is considering how to keep the world economy going in the next "severe recession".

Because the classic tools do not work anymore. The central banks can barely lower their interest rates further in order to stimulate the economy. A solution would be negative interest: Who has money in the account, receives no interest, but on the contrary has to pay a fee on his savings. This should save savers from saving. Instead, they are to be forced to consume, as it were, in order to keep the economy running.
Cash is protection against punitive interest

There is, however, a "problem": the cash. "In a cashless world there is no lower limit on interest rates. For example, a central bank could lower (lead) interest rates from two to four percent to combat a severe recession, "said Ruchir Agarwal, economist at the IMF, and IMF Advisor IMF signe Krogstrup, a former member of the Swiss National Bank to a recent study. "Without cash savers would have to pay the penalty interest, which would make consumption and investment more attractive. That would stimulate lending, boost demand and stimulate the economy, "said the two IMF experts.

However, there is still cash - which can avoid the penalty interest. Because the savers could simply withdraw their money instead of paying a fee. Especially in Japan, Switzerland and in the European Union, the share is still high.

Therefore, the two IMF experts have come up with a new idea of ​​how to effectively introduce negative interest rates despite cash.
Cash should lose value

According to the working paper of the IMF, the plan is to be implemented as follows: The central bank is to divide the monetary base into two currencies, on the one hand cash and on the other hand electronic money (e-money). On the latter, so the book money, the penalty interest would automatically arise. At the same time, cash should get a certain conversion rate against e-money. "This conversion rate is crucial for the plan," say the IMF experts.

If interest rates were at minus three percent, cash would have to depreciate by three percent a year over e-money. Thus, one dollar would be exchanged after one year only to 0.97 "e-dollar". Thus, it would not matter if you left your money in the bank book and paid the three percent penalty rate, or less for his cash would get.

To do this, companies would have to publish prices for payments in e-money and cash. "Cash would therefore lose value, both in terms of buying goods and in relation to e-money, and it would make no sense to hold cash rather than bank deposits," wrote the IMF staff.


IMF proposal is devastating. In order to introduce this system of two currencies, that is, of cash and e-money, there would only have to be small changes to the monetary policy of the respective central bank. "Compared to other proposals, this would have the advantage of completely freeing monetary policy from the lower interest rate (zero interest rates)." However, an "enormous communication effort" would be necessary - the citizens would have to sell so why penalty interest would be great and cash devil stuff.

The question remains how this system should work. Will a cash withdrawal be used to stamp the cash on the date of withdrawal? Finally, you have to determine how long the cash is already in circulation to know the corresponding exchange rate for e-money.

The IMF's ongoing plans to apply penalty rates around the world should make it clear to every citizen what the world economy is all about. Since only alarm bells can shrill. After the debt explosion of recent years, the IMF and many other experts are convinced that the system can only be run with punitive interest, ie the expropriation of savers.
source: https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/weltwirtschaft-auf-dem-weg-in-schwere-rezession-auf-irrwitzigem-weg-will-der-iwf-bargeld-besitzer-mit-strafzinsen-enteignen_id_10306882.html


Filthy criminal scum they all are, criminal and rotten from head to toe, unscrupulous and shameless. I have more thna enough of all these super crminals. I want to see them being dead, hanging in the tress until the birds are fisnihed with them.

This is not a game. This now turns into the biggest rip-off in the history of mankind into even a bigger plundering tour.



Stinkendes Verbrecherpack. They all have to drop dead, else they will not stop.


Our beloved government will pose as if it is resisting, but of course secretly will fully support this move. The war against cash money and gold is at the secret top of the agenda since many years already.



The finance headquarters in Washington, from the IMF over the WB to the FED, should be bombed into moon's orbit with cruise missiles, to be honest. They and their formidable criminal policies are the worst living enemy of man today. I indeed hate and dispise them with a passion. Parasites and plunderers. And it gets worse and worse and worse whatever is coming from them. They are scum.

[Jimbuna]

When's that next space shuttle to the moon due?

[Skybird]

The world economy system continues to disintegrate. The old status will not come back, though.



https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Fwirtschaft%2Fsozi ales%2Fhandelskrieg-warum-das-weltwirtschaftssystem-weiter-zerfallen-wird-a-1277238.html

[Skybird]

And now some astronomy. Lets talk about black holes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-13/the-black-hole-engulfing-the-world-s-bond-markets-quicktake

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-21/the-world-now-has-13-trillion-of-debt-with-below-zero-yields


If that is not frightening you, then nothing ever will.

I think Earth is heading for an economic-financial extinction level event. And there is no way to save yourself. Not bonds. Not cash. Not shares. Not property. Not gold. They all will get affected negatively once the earthquake starts, and what still works, will be forbidden and plundered by state actors.


Think of it. 52 trillion dollares in state debts. Already 13 trillion of that with negative interest. Both quota and negative interest are rapidly growing. That's 52 with twelve zeroes behind it.



-----


The loss in German total monetary assets held by private households and owners and business (4.8 trillion) due to negative interest damages and effects, last year was over 350 billion. Thats over 8%. Such loss rates nobody and nothing can sustain for long. Since losses due to wanted inflation have not even been included. State economists and Keynesians say that inflation should be wanted and is needed and is good and must be fostered by the state. Four unscrupulous lies in one sentence. Its a defence for criminal mismanagement.

[em2nought]

If it happens we'll deserve it. :03:

[Skybird]

If it happens we'll deserve it. :03:
Only those of "us" who defended the system and supported it, and legitimized those running it.

People and warners of my thinking and who did their part to stay out as best as they could (its de facto forbidden and impossible to stay out completely, mind you, you can only do your part to take yourself back as much as you can) do not deserve it. We are the majority's victims. We get exploited and abused. Thats why I am so angry. I am no supporter, and enver was, since I left my parent'S home. I get hit by the #### that others have started to throw around, or did not care for being thrown around. These are the ones who deserve it.

[STEED]

The ICF, FED, ECB and central banks now plan to widen the most malicious major crime they have ever pulled so far.
Nothing new to me, the long term agenda is to destroy paper money for digits on the screen (FAKE MONEY) and of course your personal information. People in most part welcome this with open arms!

You watch as they sell the idea for human chipping as a wonderful thing and the fools falling for it...Chip me up baby its so cool. They will not be saying that when the trap is sprung.

[Skybird]

Warren Buffet has stoipped to invest. Greetings from Ayn Rand.

https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.welt.de%2Fdebatte%2Fkommentare %2Farticle198093539%2FKonjunktur-Warum-Warren-Buffett-nicht-mehr-investieren-will.html

Personally, i have opted out of paper stuff and stocks two years ago, I found that when _I looked at the stockmarket, what happened did not make sense to me anymore and the values announced I did not see as well-founded, solid, serious figures. I opted out, following the maxime to suffer some losses in small profits not realised, but avoiding any big loss from the Big One suprising me and all others, and that could come just any day now. This week, in two years - nobody can say. I am too old as if I could afford a big loss and then spend many years to see compensation for it in the afteryears. The next earthquake in the paper money world will be bigger than 2007, and the Euro will not survive it, and then even companies of whom you own stocks may lose much of the blown up value of theirs.

There is no risk-free or low-risk interest to be found anymore. There only is interest-free risk left. And thats what the FED and ECB wants to force private people to go into.The 30-years-duration German bonds last week where the last German bonds now being given with punishment taxes (=negative interests). If even claimed solid bonds like German ones get handed out with negative interest punishement now, this tells all you need to know. Not that I am a fan of bonds, I am not, not at all. Bankers say that now 97% (edit, I am not certain anymore, could also be 80% what they said) of all state bonds in global circulation are bonds with negative interests. Growing. even high risk bonds come with negative interests now!

In Germany, the socialists plan to tax not just selling stocks from near future on, but also buying them should be taxed. Double txes. You buy them with income of yours that also already was taxed, so it in fact is triple taxing. Only buying German state bonds should be free of tax. Instead, you get less money back at the end, and pay "negative interest". Insane.

There is not one indicator light on the control panel that is not hectically flashing in emergenc-red. Its all red, whereever the eye looks. Abandon the ship if you can.

[Catfish]

Well we can thank Trump for it, and China. Trade war.

Regarding the german bonds and Money politics.. i do not like Krall, but he has a Point.

[Skybird]

Well we can thank Trump for it, and China. Trade war.

Regarding the german bonds and Money politics.. i do not like Krall, but he has a Point.


"Wenn schwarze Schwäne Junge kriegen":


The monetary crash as a result of the monetary policy of the ECB is such a black swan. The majority of the population and the elites do not see him ,or refuse to acknowledge that a 800-pound gorilla sits at the breakfast table.

The euro crisis is not the only black swan. In my book I have - without claim to completeness - identified four others. They concern our data security, where the arrival of the quantum computer will turn old certainties on the head, the end of the party system that has survived because the parties view the state as the prey to their corruption, the legal form of the corporation because it separates ownership and control and gave a managerial caste power over resources that it does not own but can exploit. The result is bureaucratized large corporations that are no longer entrepreneurial, who punish trial and error with the end of personal career, and who, on a small scale, engage in the same kind of bureaucratic sclerosis as the state on a large scale. But what they master excellently is the corruption-intriguing game of lobbying. In this way they become part of a machine that tries to undermine and suppress market forces because they can not survive otherwise.

Last but not least there lurks at least one big black swan in the form of geopolitics. It consists of the tandem of neo-Ottoman imperialism and an immigration policy that has long since left the border to idiocy behind. Its explosive power will be greater the longer we allow our failed elites to continue their false economic, monetary and security policies.





^ Reply he gave in some interview. Further:





There are no more ways to avoid the crash.

The number of zombie companies is likely to be so great that the volume of lending to them exceeds the equity of the European banking system. The earning power of the banks has been permanently destroyed because they were forced to lend long-term loans at low margins. So it will take a long time to grow out of this revenue anemia. This is the downside of the fact that it took a long time for it to become visible, because you could feed on old, long-term loans with high margins. Other reserves were also consumed and reversed to make institutions' balance sheets and income statements more enjoyable, such as provisions for credit losses. They have been lowered in the course of the decline of bankruptcies, which was only a saving of zombies, and thus profits shown, the substance of which has approximately the character of the profits, which flushed the toxic securitization until 2006 in the income statements of the banks.

However, there are ways to influence the strength of the crash and the speed of recovery. This requires an early strengthening of the equity capital of the banks so that they do not have to be saved from bankruptcy until the crisis. The sums you need after a collapse are three times as high. That's a difference.

Secondly, we need a bank restructuring law that allows for a 50% cost reduction without the double amount of annual savings immediately flowing into severance pay.

Third, we need a market-based 100-day program that would make our real economy more resilient.

But you can bet that nothing will happen. Our political elite prefers to take the oath of blessing after the crash, rather than confessing its failure a few months earlier with the change of course.




And last:



The majority of economists live in a belief system that has won through the symbiosis of politics and chairs in recent decades. This is Keynesianism and its offshoots. Keynesianism provides for the politics of our day what the geocentric view of the world has done for the rulers in the sixteenth century. It provides a narrative that allows politics to raise bread and games, consumerism, to a state ideology. In Keynesianism, this consumerism carries the inconspicuous name "demand".

On the one hand, this theory building provides the foundation for the tax and redistribution state that politics wants because it can thus buy votes, and on the other hand it is fed by a grateful political class. The problem with this theory is that it proves itself again and again in the test of reality as false. This is especially noticeable in monetary policy. For more than 10 years, the ECB has been trying convincingly to generate inflation based on its models by inflating the central bank money stock like a condom in the quality test. With ever-decreasing interest rates, always new bond purchases, more and more panic. The models are provided with regularity with new pipes and valves, which appear to be only partially controllable by the computing power of modern computer. The motto is: "Ours is the firepower, the printing press and the computing power". A few quarters later, you can see that reality has not kept up with the model and is building a new variant.

On the other hand, the representatives of the Austrian School, a minority, are cut off from the fleshpots of the university enterprise of state planning and favoritism. There are the instruments for explaining the disaster for decades before. But because it is always only a minority, to whom the scientific search for truth means more than hanging on the state teat, this group too is small.

But it does not bother me. Because with regard to the reality and the dispute over their explanation applies a word from Ayn Rand: "One is free to ignore the reality. One is free to free one's mind of any focus and to stumble blindly down every path one desires. But one is not free to avoid the abyss that one refuses to see. "

[Catfish]

"Wenn schwarze Schwäne Junge kriegen" [...]
That's his theme i was referring to, yes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jd9LNx5zZqk

(Diese Schwaben. "Neckarbuben", my donkey :doh:)

I understand why he predicts a 'crash', Dirk Mueller has said so since years as well. I do not like Krall's connections to the AfD and his bashing the government for all though, after all a lot of banks were not forced by a "socialist" government to bind certain bad "financial packages", they did so out of understandable greed, to make quick money, and f..k the future.

There has never been much farsight when it comes to banks, making a bit of quick money, and then look for another job, or bank asap, before the sword drops.

He behaves like a Helmut Kohl Zombie, "Freedom or Socialism", and tries (AfD politics of course) to destabilize our government as good as possible, with(in) his own means.
A sympathy for Hayek, Mises or Ayn Rand also do not make him that trustworthy imho. He is milking his publicity as good and long as possible of course, and he has some arguments alright.

Still I doubt a crash will happen in 2020, Mueller predicted one for 2018, others earlier. but we will see. Right now we have not even recovered from 2008..

[Skybird]

The crash, the Big One, is inevitable, the question is only how many cruelties and crimes more by states and central banks will precede it.


And mind you, paper money was politically wanted. The guilty ones are polticians. In 1914 and the early 70s, they wanted to pay for their upcoming or running wars that with a robust real currency worth the name "money" would have been impossible to be fought to the end.



Another major guolt factor I have mentione dseverla times as well as Krall above now does: the separation of ownership and responsibility. Managers today are allowed to jump around as they wish, playing their self-enrichment game with money that is not theirs and so they can play without own risk - while the possible gains from a winnign situation they happily proclaim as "theirs". Its a simple fact of life that you care the more for somethign that indeed is yours and that you plan t hand ovr to the next generation in your family, than you care for somethign that is not yours and to which you are not bound in any way. No risk is easier taken than the risk of the others.



Krall also mentions that the state order has become the prey of he corruption of the political parties and their selfish power interests that they put before the national and civil interest. I use to say that every democracy necessarily leads to socialism and leads necessarily to totalitarinaism - becasue sooner or later any socialist order must collapse and can only be enforced then any longer against the will of the people by brute force.



Historyholds many exmaples. The way the eU moves, i criticised that often enough, is towards dictatorial paternalism, and totalitarianism. Right becasue of the reason I here have repeated once again. The overboarding bureaucratization of business by every growing floods of rules and laws and demands for documentation, also illustrate it, so does the streamlining, nudging and manipulation by state-close mainstream media forming the population that polticians want to have: happy sheep that are easy to bribe with the stuff that has been stolen from them just a day before.


The crahs will come, it is inevitable. I only do not dare to nail down the date. Two weeks, three months, four years, i don't know. Could even become a Japanisation of thr situation and many more years of money erosion and plundering savings and punishing. The end will allways be the same: the biggest crash in the history of human civilizations. I would hope I am already dead when it happens. I have no interest at all to witness and live through it.


Thats why I keep my thigns and stuff together, have abandoned banks as far as possible, and live every day as enjoyable and responsible (not adding to the damage) as best as I can, as if it were my last day. Becasue the Big One will not come with long alarms and waiting periods, it instead will come suddenly, with a surprise. And it will be a good old friend: the same crisis that is cooking inside a pressure cooker since several decades already.

[Skybird]

The king is dead, long live the queen.


https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cicero.de%2Fwirtschaft%2Fnegat ivzinsen-mario-draghi-ezb-christine-lagarde



Politicians and central bankers feel like Goethe's sorcerer's apprentice: they will not let go of the ghosts they called. On the contrary, trying to fight the crisis is causing an ever greater problem. You can imagine this as follows: The central banks are pushing the debt balloon under water so that it does not become a problem. Meanwhile, this balloon gets bigger every year and pushes more to the surface. Only by more pressure can he be kept under water, only he inflates the more, the more you push him under the water. At some point, the central bank can not hold him and he shoots with all his might to the top.
With each further rescue action they pump up the ball further and thus lay the basis for the biggest debt crisis of all time. It's a big bet: are they able to (yet) manage to generate high inflation and thus find a somewhat painless path to debt relief or is the bubble bursting?
It is clear in any case that there will be no voluntary exit from the game. Which is why the appointment of French politician Christine Lagarde (https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.cicero.de/wirtschaft/eu-von-der-leyen-kommissionspr%25C3%25A4sident-ezb-christine-lagarde&xid=17259,15700019,15700186,15700191,15700256,1570 0259,15700262,15700265&usg=ALkJrhh_QQvVC5dh6Zi0J4aC6QIVnyEJcA) fits into the picture. The IMF, her previous employer, has produced several studies that show where the journey can go. The ideas range from surprising property taxes, the taxation of cash transactions to the ban on cash (and gold?).
It is undoubted that there is a lot of thought about how to push interest rates even deeper into negative territory without the savers being able to flee the system. Since this would not be enough, the next big step is being prepared in parallel: the direct financing of states by the central banks. Presumably justified by the urgent fight against climate change.
Only consistent. We have maneuvered ourselves into a dead end for decades. Now the final starts. Exit open, but the loser is clear: the saver.
Its clear, still it is frightening. By my savings today and the economic logic from 15 years ago, I should have been able to live of them for 30-35 years. Now I hope for 20 years at best, but I am not certain that some sudden coup landed by the amok-running politeska will not reduce my financial life expectancy to even just 15, maybe even just 10 years. Everything is possible with these criminals.
No wickedness too evil for it not to be done.

[Skybird]

This month its 70 years of "Human Action", one of the most profound economic and social-philosophic writings ever.

https://www.fff.org/explore-freedom/article/ludwig-von-misess-human-action-marking-70-years-of-continuing-relevance/

The financial and economic glovla situation would be much bettert today if instead of FEDs and ECBs we would have a more spread understanding of this basic work.

Freedom needs responsibility. Responsibility must mean liability, accountability. But the "politicisation" of the FIAT currency aimed at and has acchieved the decoupling of decision-making and liability. Intellectual supermen and wonderwomen claim they can centrally plan better what people want and do and decide and desire and what their preferences are and will be like in the future, than people know it themselves. And here is were the deep-rooting and fundamental relevance of "Human Action" lies. It turns the view of the homo economicus from its mentally deranged head back on its feet.

Extremely recommended reading. And frighteningly actual. For me, this classic is the best buddy of Hayek's "The Road to Serfdom".

[Skybird]

Now credit cards must be registered online by a third party provider before the cna be used in onöline transactions. Arguments in how far this should raise security levls: none. I think it is about milking coins for nothing (by the third party provider who doe snto do this for free and gets paid by any side), and enforcing from cradit card holders that they compromsie their data for big data interests.


The safety of the credit card information pool by said third party provider: well, you can hope that it will be good weather tomorrow. Maybe it will be good, maybe not.That compares, and that is all you will ever get. The long history of massive data breaches in past years leave no argument to be optimistic. One thing is certain: this data pool will attract an awesome lot of cmrinal attention, and attention by intel services. In other words: the data will be stolen and/or abused. That is a 100% certainty.



https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.welt.de%2Fdebatte%2Fkommentare %2Farticle200315776%2FNeue-EU-Richtlinie-Online-Banking-wird-mir-immer-unheimlicher.html


Another argument for me why I do not want a credit card again and see the whole business as highly dubious and suspect. So much for a previously considered trip to Sweden next year...

[Skybird]

If even Greece now gets away with issuing negative yielding debts, then this is a signal that somethign very serious is going terribly wrong.

Mind you, by definition, there can not be something like negative interests". By definition and meaning, interests always must and can only be positive, if they are not, then they are no interests at all, but fees, taxes, whatever you call it - but no interests.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-time-ever-greece-issues-negative-yielding-debt

[mapuc]

If even Greece now gets away with issuing negative yielding debts, then this is a signal that somethign very serious is going terribly wrong.

Mind you, by definition, there can not be something like negative interests". By definition and meaning, interests always must and can only be positive, if they are not, then they are no interests at all, but fees, taxes, whatever you call it - but no interests.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-time-ever-greece-issues-negative-yielding-debt

Most of our banks here in Denmark have negative interest.
Those who have 750000 Danish Kroner or more, shall pay 0.75 % of what they have on their bank account.

Markus

[Skybird]

This pest ^ is spreading everywhere. Its not just hilarious - in my book it is rightout criminal. As I said, the idea of negfativ eitnerest is a violation of the meaning of interest.

UniCredit, a Itlaian bank and mother auf BankAustria, raises penalty fees from 100.000 coins on from 2020 onb, they just said. Some banks in Germany already are there already as well, and consider 0.5% and more on money accounts even below 100,000.

At the same time, more and more people pay with plastic money and smartphones and want that cash money gets abandoned so that they are more vulnerable to getting ripped off themselves, and additionally getting charged directly or indirectly by credit card "service providers" who already slobber at the outlook of being able to dictate the charges in the near future. The Swedes even prohibit cash money by law. Lagarde considers Gsell's scalage money (Schwundgeld), and wants the prohibition of gold and other precious metals.

I wish them all broken necks, these mobsters and gangsters, robbers, fraudsters and plunderers. It shoud be clear by now that the "strategy" by th ECB which it ran in the past years, - DID NOT WORK and WILL NOT WORK to get economy lofted and boosted.

And I still wait for any of these inco,metent fools giving me an expalnaiton that can not be shreddered ion zero time of why an inflation rate is desirable and good for the eocnomy. I know the excuses they give, yaddayadda. Its just that they all are bull. There is no need for and no health in and there shall not be a desire for inflation at all. Thats just more Keynesian bull.

Its all crap. And due to the explanations given a gentleman and economist and mathematician from Ireland named Richard Cantillon already in the 18th century, we know why with this crap system the rich ever become richer and the poor ever poorer. The interventionist money system does not work as claimed by Keynesians. It works exactly to the opposite effect. And Cantillon's description of whjat now is known as the Cantillon effect is sitll valid and true. And the death sentence for all these quantitive easing madness ideas.

Why do we have madmen shooting at synagogues? Why are there no sane men shooting at the ECB and FED and central banks headquarters? Because we get told, trained, and educated all life long to be servile, obedient victims. Passive, harmless sacrificial lambs. People do not get indignant about this abuse, because they have been trained to mislearn to become indignant by themselves if not being told by politicians and ideological agitators and lobby groups that they should get indignant at something - the things this government or that special interest group want them to be idignant at, of course.

Being a defenseless sacrificial lamb is being declared the moral duty and proper ideal today. Altruism is the imperative erected by the collective. Own interests is the evidence that rewards the individual a sentence for being guilty and condemnable. Resisting populism like this is the death of your social life. Telling by experience. But I can asssure them that the antipathy is wholeheartly mutual.

[Skybird]

While the Lil' Boy in Washington poses, and Europe dwarfens itself, the Russians secure themselves rights for the biggest oil ressources worldwide.



https://tass.com/economy/1083631


Venezuela owes Russia 17 billion.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-venezuela-debt-kremlin/putin-maduro-discussed-venezuelas-debt-to-russia-last-week-kremlin-idUSKBN1WG3B3


Oh wait, we have an energy change to renewables in Europe, with the rest of the world standing in line to follow our precedent . The Russians will and must go rock bottom soon!!! :haha:

[Skybird]

The price of US economy "growth", zero interests, and sense or nonsense of helicopter money.


https://www.financialsense.com/blog/18927/size-corporate-debt-one-rung-above-junk-has-never-been-greater-warns-louis-gave



https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.achgut.com%2Fartikel%2Fkommt_d as_helikoptergeld_


Supports my view that what they try to "fight the crisis" is nothing but spilling more fuel into the already out-of-control fire.

[Skybird]

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/end-fiat-one-chart


This meets the time window of Draghi leaving and Lagarde going into the ECB boss room. Lagarde during her time at the CF pressed studies and appers about prohibiting cahs money, engfocing penlty fees on the use of cash money, prohibiting private possession of gold... She is no econiomic expert, no fincial expert, but a career socialist andcareer politican only.


I am really worried since the day it was announced she would take over the ECB. Draghi was bad. She will become much worse. I fear a criminnal onslaught on private savings second to none before in history, for this woman is no only not competent in understandfing money, but also ruthless and unscrupolous. The germans were almost enthusiastic about Lagarde's call to the ECB. Only shows how little most German understand - nobody in Europe has to fear as much of her, than the Germans. She would already have massacred European savers if only at the ICF she could have had her will. As head of the ECB, it will be easier for her to get it, and she will have more support channels available, politically. Frightening.

[Skybird]

Crowdfunded movie in the making, about one of the most outstanding thinkers, and social philosophers and economists of the last century.


http://www.misesthemovie.com/


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwbSvDVsun4&feature=youtu.be


Usually referred to as just an economist, he in fact was much more, a social thinker and a real Universalgelehrter (polymath?). Something he had in common with another giant in this branch, Hayek. Mise' base work "Human Action" impacted in my thinking world like a nuclear bomb. Because that is what all economy grounds on and results in: human action - and its infinitely diverse motives.


I donated.

[Skybird]

"Finally, for those curious if the authorities will stop at anything to destroy the currency and send rates to even more negative levels if it means kicking the can on a global, populist uprising, by just a few months, weeks or days, here is the answer: "We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected," said Lagarde."


This woman is more dangeorus - and as brainless - as a ton of nitroglycerin in free fall down to a rocky bottom. How she ever managed to successfully claim the reputation of being an econiomic expert and a financial authority, escapes me. She is just a politician and lawyer for social law, without formal professional training in these things: she is neither a trained econonomist, nor a banker or fiscal expert.



https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/lagarde-we-should-be-happier-have-job-have-savings

[Skybird]

Wiener Zeitung, 16.12.2019, writes:

>> Europe is a very special region: just a little more than 5 percent of the planet's people make up a good 25 percent of global economic output, but at the same time consume 50 percent of all social benefits in the world. In other words, Europeans spend twice as much on welfare spending as would equal their economic capacity. <<

[Rockstar]

We are on a crash course to a fully cashless society and once that happens you will not be able to withdraw coinage or notes from your own account in an attempt to protect yourself from things like negative interest rates.

Unfortunetly too negative interest rates are imposed on you as a last ditch effort to stimulate growth. Basically its an attempt to prod people into spending their hard earned savings rather than the thought of giving it to the bankers.

Not if but when this global economy crashes I think its gonna crash hard. Then its only a matter of time before people begin to assign value to something other than the current forms of compensation of which they currently have little or no control over.

[Rockstar]

Trade war effects, one writers opinion.

Trade war stench hangs over Xi’s rallying cry
Fragrant Hills speech illustrates China’s economic pain as talks restart to ease Sino-US tensions

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/article/trade-war-stench-hangs-over-xis-rhetoric/ (https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/article/trade-war-stench-hangs-over-xis-rhetoric/)
(https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/article/trade-war-stench-hangs-over-xis-rhetoric/)

[Skybird]

Everybody involved in stocks, papers and holding a bank account with money on it, should be aware of these arguments:

https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.focus.de%2Ffinanzen%2Fboerse%2 Ffinanzkrise%2Fgastbeitrag-von-marc-friedrich-und-matthias-weik-sehnsucht-nach-dem-grossen-crash-friedrich-weik-kontern-ihre-kritiker_id_11622575.html

The authors confirm some of my own long-held convictions: that especially ETFs are a bubble-maker, that stocks are hopelessly overvalued, that state bonds are toxic, and that the implict national debts are neck-breakers.

My guts feeling says: Not anotherf ull ten years again before the storm hits us in full. I even think: in five years at the latest. I hope I made the right choices and can limit my losses. Loosing we all will. Many of us will be ruined, many people will see their pensions and reserves for their days of age being demolished. Our own governments then will rip off their masks and show us that they always have been and especially then still are our worst enemies. And the Trumps and Macronmans and Merkels and Super-Uschis and Gangster-Lagardes will have no answers and will fall back to their last line of defence: brute force and state violence.


In the event of impending bankruptcy of a systemically important bank, customer funds can be withdrawn or converted into bank shares at a fixed nominal value and the nominal value can be reduced to 0! An objection procedure is excluded. Even a lawsuit has no suspensive effect. All of the shareholder's claims are deemed to have been »fulfilled«, and forever (Section 99 paras. 1 - 3 SAG).
Even if the bank recovers, there is no going back. In an emergency, the following must be liable: All private and corporate customers who make deposits from € 100,000 with a »systemically important« bank. Affected are: savings book, sight deposits, fixed deposits and call money (https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.focus.de/thema/tagesgeld/&xid=17259,15700023,15700186,15700190,15700259,1570 0271,15700302&usg=ALkJrhjgQ-LsvelUp6C96TlrH52pjjNVnA) , savings contracts (also capital-forming benefits), registered bonds and temporarily parked liquidity in the securities account as well as the shareholders of the systemically important bank.
Who actually thinks that money in the account belongs to you is naive. Deposit protection may still apply if a smaller bank tips over, but certainly not if a medium-sized or large bank such as Deutsche Bank goes bankrupt. The banks' pots are currently filled with 6.9 billion euros, which is just 0.4 percent of the required deposit! By 2024, there should be 14 billion. This is offset by over 2 trillion euros in account balances. A hot bet.


Fridays-for-Future kiddies will be surprised to learn that it will not be climate death destroying their lives, but their own economic incompetence and the collapse of what they claim to be unimportant: the health of the finance system and its depending economy.


Its frightening what is coming.

[STEED]

^I have no doubts that this on going mess, care to note I said on going unlike the media who will report it as new will be double on the 2008 crash and then the next one after that will be triple and so on. The destruction of paper money is on the way and chipping is going to happen. Question is when and that depends on those pulling the strings.

[mapuc]

This Saturday I heard an episode of the weekly radioprogram

Tectopia

In this episode they talked about Facebook's plan on creating something similar to Bitcoin.

When hearing it-I couldn't help thinking....are we heading towards a one world computer generated currency ?

Markus

[Catfish]

[...] When hearing it-I couldn't help thinking....are we heading towards a one world computer generated currency ?
Markus
Oh no, imagine an international currency without the need to exchange and check currencies every second to compare prices, that would make trade easier. Better not.

[Catfish]

^ this was of course an ironic comment. We should go back to exchanging shells and pearls, different shells and pearls in every country of course, so we can have back the good old times.


Just found that again, old but still on the spot and well explained. Only in german :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un4kvukAfcI

[Skybird]

The aftermath of Corona likely will destroy Western finance and real economy. This is in German, but it is an essential lecture, so try with it or see how far Google translator gets you.
It's frightening, and as I said already over a week ago - Corona is a game changer, it will not leave our civilization, at least in the West, like it has found it.


https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/stelter-in-den-medien/coronakrise-das-ist-erst-phase-2/

[u crank]

The upside of the downside.

Wasn't sure where to post this but I am wondering how are gas prices being affected by the market activity in the USA. Gas prices here are in a free fall. They have gone from about $1.20 per litre a month ago to .85 cents per litre today. Here on PEI our gas prices are regulated and can change twice a month at regular intervals. This is the second unscheduled price change in a week. The next scheduled price adjustment is March 20. The last time gas was in the 84-cent range here on PEI was March 2009.

Driving around in your car may soon be the only thing you can do.:o

[Jimbuna]

^ Similarly here in the UK.

[STEED]

Don't worry the rich will punish us all to get every penny back plus extra when the dust settles. :O:

What a nice world we live in.:03:

[raymond6751]

Stock market selloffs. Somebody is buying! It's the rich folks like Mr. Trump and his friends. When this passes, they will be worth x times what they were.

The federal reserve will just print more money that is just paper.

Food will reappear on shelves at higher prices. (Supply/Demand)

Gas will go up. Same reason.

My retirement fund, all stocks, is not worth 50% of last year's value, which was down $18,000 since Trump became president and started mucking about.

It's time for another meteor.

[Catfish]

For the first time, the oil price is negative, at the stock market :o
"Benchmark collapses to unprecedented low as traders try to rid themselves of unwanted crude"
https://www.ft.com/content/a5292644-958d-4065-92e8-ace55d766654

So oil tankers cannot unload anymore because the big tanks are full. And it means that the price for a liter at gas stations is at least a million higher than it is at the stock market.
I cannot drive enough to become rich :hmmm:

Seriously that means that the world economy will have problems, and soon. And some will get really rich.. never thought to see a capitalism crisis happen live, so to speak. Not good.

[vienna]

Gonna be fun seeing all them Texans trying to sneak across the border to Mexico looking fer jobs...




<O>

[vienna]

Published earlier this morning just before the wheel started to come off...


The world can thank President Trump for the oil deal --

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/493614-the-world-can-thank-president-trump-for-the-oil-deal


Not to fear: Trump will take full responsibility...


..just as he always has...


https://media.makeameme.org/created/i-take-no-a0cddb8312.jpg







<O>

[Skybird]

They are currently pumping newly created trillions of mone yinto the real economy.

I will laugh tears of despair and anger when then I will see the crowds applauding again and going cheers and chimes when stocks will grow again. while that only means that the money has been fundamentally devalued and therefore prices go up to compensate that devaluation.

All that stimulus they now demand, all that bailout packages and aids and payments - guess who gets robbed for it in the end?

You.

Me.

This crisis will leave even more companies in zombie status. And all these unfit-to-live companies will be artificially kept alive. In one yera and in two years, we will have a far bigger quota of zombie comaponies than we already have now.

Cannot. Be. Good.

Germany. Diffrerent to the US and China where subsidies for electric cars are to run out and sales are expected to drop or already have started to drop, Germany has reinterated its detwemrination to stay on course into full economic collpase. German car makers more or less burn all bridges to gasoline and Diesel engines. But E-cars are doomed to fail, now more than already before. Then the m ost important pillar of German industry and econoym will break down.

Oh that much joy and fun ahead. All that fiscal carnage. For germany. For the EU...

Super-Uschi meanwhile insists that more moeny gets paid into EU's own budget. :har:

If you raise children, tell them to run, run, run away, and then run further.

[Rockstar]

... never thought to see a capitalism crisis happen live, so to speak. Not good.




The world is 4 and a half billion years old. What are the chances of us being alive to see this massive global pandemic and economic collapse. :o

[Catfish]

The world is 4 and a half billion years old. What are the chances of us being alive to see this massive global pandemic and economic collapse. :o
I take it Anomalocaris was also quite p$$ed off when the world's general conditions changed.. "this happens to me, just of all ?!"

[Skybird]

Corona economics:


https://www.manager-magazin.de/politik/europa/italien-hohe-privatvermoegen-brauchen-keine-eurobonds-a-1306445.html

In an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung on Monday, Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte criticized the position of the German and Dutch governments. Their perspective "must change now". European solidarity in the corona crisis is needed and common bonds are now needed.

This Thursday the EU heads of government meet to decide on a reconstruction fund. Meanwhile, there is talk of a volume of 1500 billion euros and it all boils down to the fact that joint repayments are agreed depending on the economic strength. Translated this means: Germany would have to pay 29 percent of the repayments, even if we do not receive anything from the reconstruction fund. We would then have to raise 435 billion euros in the coming decades and actually give them to our partners in Europe.

Apart from the fact that I prefer to help Italy intelligently and to mobilize our ever increasing TARGET2 demands, as explained here, there is also the question of justice. Not only are the Italian households, according to all available data, significantly richer than we are, they are also less indebted.

Last weekend, I pointed out on Twitter that Italy could solve its debt problem on its own. A one-time levy of 20 percent would be enough to reduce Italian public debt by 100 percent of GDP - to a level below the German one. Even after such a cut, Italian households would have more assets than the German ones.

This thesis sparked fierce discussions and culminated in the statement of a leading German economist that it was a dubious calculation and would inevitably lead to a severe depression in Italy, an attempt was made in this way to reduce the Italian government debt. That is why it is not a viable option and one has to help Italy by means of joint bonds.

Let's do the math

Reason enough for me to take a closer look at the numbers. Because if one vehemently rejects taxing private wealth in the country that is asking for solidarity, and at the same time sees no problem in imposing additional burdens on local taxpayers, it really must be impossible.

But the opposite is the case.

The starting point for my considerations are the following facts (all numbers rounded):

The Italians have private assets of 9,900 billion euros.
The debt of the Italian state is 2500 billion euros.
Italian GDP before Corona was 1,800 billion euros.
A 20 percent tax on private wealth would result in 1980 billion euros: the state would then have debts of 520 billion euros, which corresponds to less than 30 percent of GDP. If you wanted to reduce the debt to 60 percent of GDP, a tax of 14 percent on private wealth was sufficient to reduce the public debt.

Since this rough calculation met with criticism, we take a closer look at the data. The table provides an overview of the debt levels of the various sectors - government, non-financial corporations and households - as a percentage of the gross domestic product of the respective countries, sorted in ascending order by total debt:

Sector debt levels



Country State Enterprise Private households Total private sector Total
Germany 61.0 59 54 114 175
Austria 71.1 90 49 139 210
Italy 137.3 69 41 111 248
Spain 97.9 95 57 152 250
Portugal 120.5 100 65 164 285
Netherlands 49.3 163 101 264 313
Belgium 102.2 150 61 212 314
France 100.4 155 61 216 317
Source: Bank for International Settlements, as of Q3 / 2019, in% of GDP

This representation is extremely interesting:

France is at the forefront of debt, with 316.8 percent non-financial debt relative to GDP. No one should therefore be surprised that France in particular places so much value on joint debts at EU / Eurozone level.
The Netherlands has the least public debt, but its very high level of private debt.
In no country is the private sector as indebted as it is in Italy! Nowhere are private households so indebted and only in Germany do companies have less debt relative to GDP.

So it is obvious - as I have done - to raise the question of why Italy does not help itself. Obviously, it is not a problem of excessive debt, but of an incorrect distribution between the state and the private sector. If the Italian government shifted part of its debt to the private sector, it would still be less indebted than the private sector in most other countries.

So it's definitely not the numbers. This is why the critics have put forward such a consideration that it cannot be implemented to burden the private sector in this way.

The advocated alternative of my critics is that the other states of the EU - above all Germany - should assume the debts. But this is nothing more than a repayment based on economic strength, which is why this idea only satisfies me to a limited extent. As I underlined several times, here too, I am in favor of helping Italy. But the country should and could do something for itself.

It is completely easy to enforce such a one-off property levy. According to Credit Suisse data, Italian households have the largest wealth relative to the GDP of all countries.

The Banca d'Italia reports regularly on the development of private wealth.

In 2017, it was 9743 billion and these were the most important positions (in billions each):

Private wealth

The most important positions in billion euros

Residential real estate 5,247
Cash / bank deposits 1,361
Shares 1,038
Insurance / pensions 995
Commercial property 679
Investment fund 524
Bonds 314

Incidentally, Italian households directly hold only 100 billion government bonds. The main creditors are the Italian banks and foreign institutions and - of course - the ECB. A taxation of wealth would therefore not be a haircut, as another critic of my considerations on the Italian wealth tax noted.

Let's go on: Let's assume that the Italian state wants to organize a new start and drastically reduce its debt by the 100 percent of GDP that I put in the room. That would be 1,800 billion euros or around 18.5 percent of the wealth of Italian households. Assuming an allowance to protect smaller assets could correspond to a 25 percent rate.

Assuming a more moderate debt repayment of 50 percent - a step that would lower Italian public debt below the level of most euro area countries - we speak of 12.5 percent of assets. By the way: the burden equalization that was introduced in Germany after the Second World War was 50 percent of the ascertained assets and had to be paid in 120 quarterly installments.

Obviously, Italians don't have that much cash. This reflects the better investment compared to us Germans. Real estate is the most important asset position. On the other hand, the debt is very low. The Italians could easily borrow the money needed to pay the tax. If we assume that the owners of cash and cash equivalents make the payment directly from the portfolio and that above all the smaller assets are invested - and therefore the exemption limit applies accordingly - this would already result (assuming a rate of ten percent) around 300 Billion euro. The remaining 1,500 billion euros in the maximum scenario correspond to around 25 percent of Italian property assets.

As early as 2017, the French think tank France Stratégie suggested that the state become co-owner of all properties and could levy an annual tax in return. If an owner does not want or cannot pay annually, the discount would be deducted from a sale or inheritance. The French government distanced itself from the proposals. But that does not change the fact that states could make use of this option in financial difficulties.

In the specific case of Italy, it makes sense that the state levies compulsory mortgages on the real estate. Payments would go directly to the state, and repayments would be made over the longest possible period, for example, as in German load balancing over 30 years, and at very favorable rates given the ECB's monetary policy.

If we assume a volume of 1,500 billion euros, this would correspond to an annual burden on private households of 67 billion euros with two percent interest and a term of thirty years. That is around 3.5 percent of the annual economic output. If the government is satisfied with a lower burden than in the maximum scenario, we are talking about an annual burden of around one percent of GDP.

In return, the Italian government could significantly reduce other taxes and duties once the debt has been reduced. There would no longer be a need to achieve a so-called primary surplus, i.e. a surplus in the household before interest payments. The state would release the country's growth forces instead of slowing them down as in recent years. This would give Italy the chance to overcome the stagnation of the past 20 years.

What speaks against suggesting that the Italians solve their problems in this way? It would be the key to an economic upswing. If you instead rely on the significantly poorer German households to take the burden off the Italians' debt, in whatever way, packed and veiled - not only promotes the Euro-critical forces here, they also deny Italy a unique opportunity!

It would definitely not be a rescue of the EU and Euro project. Friendship cannot be bought. Given the heated debate in Europe, we can experience the validity of this saying on a daily basis. If local economists and politicians think that the solution lies in moving assets towards the wealthiest private households in Europe, they overestimate the performance of the German economy. Given demographic change, structural change and the disappointing development of productivity, we are facing difficult years.

Germany should still help, as I appealed here two weeks ago, namely with direct investments, loans and targeted support for the health system. In return, we should press for the participation of the Italian private sector.

By the way: Spain, Portugal, Belgium and even France could also help themselves, as a look at the numbers shows.

[Skybird]

"At what cost?"



https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/former-jpmorgan-economist-we-are-heading-towards-weimar-republic-inflation-setup



With central banks either purchasing corporate bonds or accepting them as collateral, it may be soon until their mandate is being changed to facilitate the buying of equities, too. As other commentators already noted: we may have abandoned free markets and now head to a centrally planned set up.

[Skybird]

Panic bites at all directions. Twitching and twisting in agony. But the stillborn stays as dead as it always has been.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/moment-truth-euro-ecb-preparing-run-qe-without-bundesbank

[Skybird]

Not just possible, but sooner or later: likely.



Gone will be worldwide fiat currency debt, amounting to some $250—$300 trillion. Gone will be all OTC derivatives which settle in fiat, amounting to a further $560 trillion. Gone will be listed derivatives, a further $33 trillion. Gone will be options, a further $65 trillion. All these, totalling over $900 trillion, are only part of the destruction.
Global deposits held as bank balances totalling $60 trillion will evaporate. Worldwide equity markets denominated in fiat are a further $70 trillion; anything that does not migrate from fiat pricing disappears, including most, if not all ETFs. Goodbye to hedge funds. Goodbye to offshore financial centres. Goodbye to onshore financial centres. Goodbye to $100 trillion of fiat money.
Life will be very different, and those not prepared for it, principally by retaining a store of non-fiat, sound money, which can only be physical gold and silver until credible substitutes arise, will face impoverishment. Measured in real money, the value of non-financial physical assets will collapse due to the preponderance of desperate sellers to whom survival is most important, even though priced in worthless fiat their prices will have risen. The experience of inflationary collapses in Germany and Austria in the early 1920s showed the way, when country estates went for almost nothing in gold-back dollars and $100 would buy a mansion in Berlin.
None of this is expected. It may not happen, but the chances of it happening appear to have increased significantly from 23 March.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/crisis-goes-gear-beginning-end-dollar

If fiat money is just a dream, then dread the day when dreaming ends.

[Skybird]

Bail out everything! - Bailing out everything?

https://www.dlacalle.com/en/the-risk-of-the-bailout-of-everything/#more-11070

[Skybird]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/david-stockman-what-could-happen-if-fed-loses-control



In fact, in a debt-saturated system, the Fed’s massive bond purchases never transmit anything outside the canyons of Wall Street. This money-printing madness only drives bond prices higher and cap rates lower—meaning relentless and systematic inflation of financial assets’ prices.
As a practical matter, of course, the bottom 90% don’t own enough stock or even inflated government and corporate bonds to shake a stick at. Instead, what meager savings they have accumulated languish in bank deposits, CDs or money market funds earning exactly what the Fed has decreed—nothing!
So, when Powell says he’s only trying to help the average American, you have to wonder whether he is just stupid or the greatest lying fraud yet to occupy the big chair at the Fed.

Similiar developement in the Eurozone - just even slightly worse, maybe.

[Skybird]

The German industry has declared itself officially "overloaded" with bureaucratic hurdles and overregulations, saying that it already was almost no longer to should the many regulatory needs and paperwar in normal times, but now in Corona times its all a millstone around their neck. At the same time when - imo reality-disconnected - politicians babble of using the crisis to invest and change for the wanted "Green deal", over 55% of those German companies and corporations who get financial Corona aid and got promises for more in order to help them making the metamorphosis into the better, the brighter, the greener future- as a matter of fact have substantially reduced their financial investing activity. They just struggle and fight for their survival. Last thing they need after Corona and overregulation and paperwar, is even more burdens loaded onto them.

The German industrial powerhouse is struggling dangerously, and is expected to finance the exploding financial redistribution schemes of the EU . And some have nothing better to do then to load even more burdens onto its shoulders, to make sure that is MUST break down.

A timing could not be any more off the mark. But what else to expect iof a generla understanding of market economy has gone almost extinct and has been replaced with state-planned fantasies.

[Skybird]

The gold record is also a vote of no confidence against politics

The precious metal will cost more than $ 2,000 for the first time. This is also due to the corona crisis. But the real reasons lie deeper - the massive price surge also directs the focus on central bank policies and their handling of the euro, dollar and Co.

Gold has made history twice in just a few weeks. It was only in July that its price in the key currency, US dollars, broke the previous record high of September 2011, which had been at $ 1921. And on Tuesday, it was trading above $ 2,000 for the first time.

This clearly demonstrates the dynamics currently prevailing on the market for precious metals. The reason for the massive price increase is always the uncertainty that results from the consequences of the Corona crisis for the global economy. That is not wrong, but the causes are deeper.

In order to recognize this, it is worth looking back. The record of September 2011, which was valid for many years, resulted from the currency turmoil from a currency crisis. It was not until Mario Draghi's promise by the European Central Bank to do whatever it takes to save the common currency that the markets calmed down. As a result, the gold price fell again, also because there was an investment alternative with the bond market that - unlike interest-free gold - could be used to generate returns.

That has changed. The collateral damage that the major central banks - worldwide, and not just in the euro zone - accept with their limitless flood of liquidity and their zero interest rate policy is a global market for government bonds, in which there are now over 14 trillion bonds Bring in dollar negative returns.

It has been observed for years that this development has a clear correlation to the gold price - large investors are apparently switching from bonds that cost them money to the precious metal, which does not generate interest, but at least does not cost investors any penalty interest.

The billion-dollar rescue packages that governments and central banks are now putting together in the fight against the corona pandemic - as correct and appropriate as they may be - will continue to fuel this trend.

It has now taken its toll on politicians for almost a decade to waste the time that the central banks bought it to stabilize the foundations of public finances with decisive reforms after the devastating financial and euro crisis. And still no one knows how far the aid packages can carry. A second wave could require a similar action to save the economy.

The debt burden of the western industrialized nations was immense even before the corona pandemic - and only because the central banks kept interest rates low and thus redistributed wealth from citizens to the state.

Now, however, the quotas continue to rise, the states are reaching the limits of debt sustainability. And this is also expressed by the gold price: confidence in the currencies has deteriorated. In retrospect, it does not seem to be a coincidence that the low point of the gold price fell in the founding phase of the euro. The common currency has since lost a good 80 percent of its value in gold.

Many investors and those in whose sight the metal is now falling due to the record hunt may now be wondering whether the price will continue to rise. It depends on many factors. One of the most important is the question of whether politicians and central banks recognize a stable currency as a value in itself - and act accordingly.


The states will crave to implement ways to plunder private gold reserves sooner or later, I fear. They always do like this sooner or later. Some already moved into that direction, India for example. Restrictions in Europe over the past years have nbeen tightened as well, also in Germany.

Gold means private independence from state fraudulent money and state expropriation schemes hidden in harmlessly sounding word dresses. Politics wants dependency of the people, not independence. Nobody should be able to escape the states' and central banks' yoke.

2500 Dollar per ounce of gold within the next 12-15 months imo are absolutely possible.

[Catfish]

Gold is only valuable as long as all agree that it is, just like any currency.
It's "worth" will continue to rise and fall, and in case of a real crisis you will not be able to buy food with it. Or maybe you are, like a kilogram for a loaf of bread.

[Skybird]

Gold is only valuable as long as all agree that it is, just like any currency.
It's "worth" will continue to rise and fall, and in case of a real crisis you will not be able to buy food with it. Or maybe you are, like a kilogram for a loaf of bread.
Now compare to a Rucksack of Euro or Dollar notes, and compare to the history of the past centuries or millenia. ;)

Paper moneys come and go, and over their lifespan, their value developement knows only one direction: downward. Compared to gold, the Euro has lost already 80% of its starting value, the dollar since the time immediately before WWI even over 95%. Gold stays since millenia. Only 2-3% of gold traded per year, is newly mined gold, the rest is old gold that just changes the owner. - How much newly created book money floods the market every year? :D


Estimations on how much gold has ever been mined in total in human history, range from 190 thousand to 245 thousand tons. In total. In all of mankind's history. Its a limited comodity for us on planet Earth. That limited availability is part of its success story that lasts since millenia.



And if it would be so worthless as you imply, please explain why central banks have moved in recent years to buy it in huge quantities, while handing out their fraudulent paper stuff inflationary and in careless ammounts and biblical quantities. Because paper money has worth and gold has not? Are they stupid, then? That they sold parts of it this year is due to the need for cash in corona times.


Voltaire said that every paper money sooner or later reaches its natural intrinsic value: nill. Gold however over the course of history has acchieved a net gain. Over centuries and millenia. ;) It simply is "wertbeständiger" in people'S appreciation and preference. Kill an industry, destroy a company, and your stocks are worth nothing anymore. Destroy a state, brign down a bank system, and bank notes and bonds are worth nothing anymore. But certain other things still get traded, and keep their value. Thats why they are wanted,m always have been wanted, and for the forseeable future always will be wanted. Granted, if we find a 1 billion tons of gold reserve on the moon, that would do the trading value on planet Earth no good - but we have not found a billion tons of gold on the moon so far.

[Skybird]

The moment of truth for the monetary system.



http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.misesde.org%2F2020%2F08%2Fder-moment-der-wahrheit-fuer-das-geldsystem%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR19hnp_5tnynesXh67qYLW S-cDpJ5tN1okoHdJrAHNjkny7Q0ozVRssBHc

In 1848, as is well known, Marx (and Friedrich Engels) called for the "centralization of credit in the hands of the state by a national bank with state capital and exclusive monopoly". A downright creepy scenario: The all-powerful central bank or the special interest groups that collect it would now have control over who receives credit and money, when and under what conditions - which state, which industry, which workers and employees. The path to a de facto dictatorial command and control economy - as many proponents of climate rescue policy and "green monetary policy" long for - would thus be practically through the back door.


No question about it, the world has a "money problem": sooner or later, fiat money will destroy the free market economy and thus also the free society; the coronavirus crisis only reinforces the existing momentum. Because the rulers and the ruled are now attached to fiat money like flies on the flycatcher, the central banks have even more room for maneuver. They can monetize the national debt and thereby also drive up price inflation without having to fear insurmountable opposition: In order to avoid the great evil of the “megacrash”, inflation costs are accepted as the comparatively lesser evil.

You can already guess what will come in the time "after Corona": The already great dependency of economies on fiat money will affect the central banks and the groups that know how to use them for their purposes - states, but of course also the banks and banks Financial industry as well as large corporations - make it even bigger. The drive to save the bare currencies from collapse will bring the cartel of central banks closer together. That everything will boil down to a uniform world monetary policy with world money has certainly not become less likely; It does not need to be emphasized separately which totalitarian potential dangers would be associated with it.

[mapuc]

(I use this thread, because it's about economy)

Do you have what it takes ?

Do you master State economy and what follows in this area of economy ?

Do you accept lots of journalist running after you, for a comment ?

Do you think you could pass the highest clearing.

If you have said yes to all these question then there's a great job waiting for you.

The Danish Government are looking for a new Governor to the National bank

Markus

[Skybird]

Bank run in Turkey. People are rushing into gold on Istanbul Bazaar. Is it the end game for the Turkish Lira? Not yet. We have Covid returning, and we remember the run for toilet paper. The virus could provide the Lira a second life.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-tu...-idUKKCN25A0GW (https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-currency-gold-analysis/gold-rush-at-turkish-bazaar-a-test-of-trust-for-lowly-lira-idUKKCN25A0GW)

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tu...old-while-lira (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turkey-hit-bank-runs-currency-panic-locals-sell-their-cars-and-houses-buy-gold-while-lira)

Too late. You should have gotten your fix of gold BEFORE these things start to turn ugly.

Watch closely, rest-of-the-world. Where Turkey is now, whewre Arenbtia has been repeatedly, we others will be in the future. Say ten years, say twenty years: the timetable is open for discussion. The outcome not.

[Skybird]

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3098555/european-economies-mired-recession-euro-living-borrowed-time


Germany has given up the ghost on trying to control the ECB’s monetary excesses. There seems to be a palpable sense of “if you can’t beat them, join them” for the sake of presenting a united front (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3093993/cautious-hopes-deal-eu-coronavirus-recovery-summit) and avoiding a damaging public row. In the pre-euro days, tough Bundesbank policies and the strong Deutschmark were solid anchors of the European monetary system, implacable yardsticks which helped other European countries govern their own performances.

These days, Frankfurt’s fiduciary responsibility seems to have been quietly abandoned in favour of political expediency, economic survival and a softening in standards. The ECB has abandoned Germany’s monetary rigour, spending its way out of recession through debt monetisation and underwriting Europe’s explosive fiscal expansion in the process. The forefathers of the Deutsche Bundesbank would turn in their graves.
(...)
Like in the US subprime crisis, it’s fine while the charade lasts, but once confidence begins to wobble, that is where the danger lies. It’s a bit like the tale of the emperor’s new clothes – once someone calls attention to the reality, the pyramid of risk starts to implode.

What I have started to fear some years ago already is that when the moment of truth has come, what states' politicians will do to not drown. It is known to rescue swimmers that people drowning can even easily panic and then kick and poull other sudner water in desperation for keeping their head above the waterline, rescue swimmer I think are beign told to knock them out them (at least Kevoin Costner said that in his The Guardian movie). I fear that states will turn openly authoritarian and totalitarian to enforce their fiscal regimes and the expropriation of private property.

[Skybird]

Like the ECB, so the FED:


"OPEN THE FLOODGATES!"


https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/fed-will-let-inflation-rise-target-jobs-n1238278


Now my most feared consequences from the pandemic starting to show: their effect on the systemic change of the "money" system.

If one is not ashmamed to stil, call it a "money". Its pure worthless claim for debts made before.

And we will never recover from the monetarian massacres we currently witness. Never. Its impossible, the debts have been allowed to grow too far. Factors too far.


"(Ungedeckter) Kredit ist vorgezogener Konsum, der in der Zukunft ausfällt." - Ludwig von Mises
That has the logic of a Vulcan, and the simplicity and elegance of a poet.

[Skybird]

The big bet.


http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.focus.de%2Ffinanzen%2Fboerse%2 Fgold%2Fgoldmuenzen%2Fdie-wette-auf-fallende-kurse-big-short-so-wetten-goldanleger-auf-fallende-kurs-bei-den-offiziellen-waehrungen_id_12369393.html

[Skybird]

Andreas Untzerberger from Austria writes in his blog and the Auistrian "Börsenkurier"



Even if we seem to have gotten used to it, the unrestrained printing of money by many central banks remains the greatest threat to our economic future. It has been running on a large scale every year since 2008 and has accelerated again rapidly since the outbreak of the Corona crisis.

Since 2008, the total assets of all central banks in the euro area, Great Britain and the USA have increased sixfold on average! And since March alone, growth has accelerated again, for example at the ECB from 4.6 to 6.3 trillion. That is threatening - even if many are currently hoarding money out of fear and therefore the negative consequences will not occur as long as they do so. But the amount of goods and services in any case has not increased at nearly the same rate. Or even shrinking since March. Ultimately, this must lead to enormous inflation - as in the interwar period after a couple of "Roaring Twenties", when a similar attempt was made to make the costs of war disappear by printing money and creating money in the books.

What is particularly frightening is that almost none of the money created goes into real investments that could later turn out to be profitable. The main ports of destination for the flow of money are:

-Bonds from deficit states (which channel an ever larger part of the budget into the unproductive welfare system);
-Real estate (whose prices are skyrocketing);
-Gold (detto);
-Electric cars and wind turbines (which are supposed to be beneficial to the climate, but certainly do not lead to additional added value);
-Stock exchanges (where it is uncertain how much of this will go into real productivity gains),
-the barely disguised nationalization of companies (such as in aviation, although it will not recover for a long time);
-and subsidies to non-sustainable company structures (which are able to mobilize strong lobbies, supervisory boards and trade unions).

A clever economist recently compared that to politically correct language manipulation, which, however, cannot cause the genders to become one and the same. Nevertheless, it seems extremely unlikely that any politician in Europe or the USA will soon admit that there can be no central bank trick that could prevent the loss of prosperity caused by the crises from necessarily reaching the people.

Many have long suspected this fact and are therefore desperately looking for ways to cushion these losses for their own families.



https://www.andreas-unterberger.at/2020/09/die-folgen-des-gelddruckens/

[Skybird]

Insidious Tax: Preparing the Ground for Higher Inflation


http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.focus.de%2Ffinanzen%2Fboerse%2 Fexperten%2Fdas-spiel-mit-der-inflation-warum-ueberschuldung-beliebter-als-geldentwertung-ist_id_12420508.html


Radical forces are pushing for their goals to be achieved quickly through tough intervention. They have already arrived in monetary policy (theory). For example, in the form of “modern monetary theory” or “MMT” for short). According to her, the state should print the money it needs itself instead of collecting taxes or borrowing from banks. At its core, the MMT boils down to withdrawing the state loan from any market valuation. In practice, the central bank would become a subdivision of the Ministry of Finance - a situation that was common in many places up until the 1970s, and which repeatedly resulted in high, sometimes very high inflation

A foreseeable sacrifice is probably the free society, the free market economy (or what is left of it). If civil and entrepreneurial freedoms are increasingly restricted in favor of the state, the political zealots, the radicals, receive a tailwind. And with that, the danger increases that the destructive effects of inflation will be used for political purposes - to overthrow civil society.

[Skybird]

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.achgut.com/artikel/der_globale_schuldenturm_wackelt_das_bankensystem_ bebt



But what is the way out then? As I see it, the absolute debt of almost 300,000 billion, which means a relative debt of almost 400 percent of global GDP, sooner or later inevitably leads to a collapse of the financial system, because such a mountain of debt cannot realistically be removed. What does that actually mean?
First, it is said that in the last decades in which this mountain of debt has arisen, we have created huge sums of money that are not sufficiently offset by real values. Second, it means that there has been no economically profitable use for a good part of these funds, but that the debtors have wasted the money and will be unable to serve the creditors. Therefore, the mountain of debt will have to be removed by a huge wave of bankruptcies.


It has always been so (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691152646/this-time-is-different) , as the excellent analysis of credit history over the past 800 years by economists Carmen M. Reinhart (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/carmen-reinhart) and Kenneth Rogoff (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/kenneth-rogoff) shows. Nobody knows when that will happen, because prognoses never work in complex systems, you could just as easily try to predict when you will fall in love again. But if the scenario described above occurs, bankruptcies of up to 30 percent of all companies with corresponding mass unemployment can be expected; on the way there, the banking system collapses under the pressure of write-offs and becomes insolvent and illiquid itself, and payment transactions then fail.


Whether this scenario occurs suddenly or gradually, as the G30 paper implicitly suggests, which suggests making the bankers the " inner party (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Party) " of the new financial socialism, does not matter. Because sooner or later the states will be forced to nationalize the banking system and introduce sovereign money as in the GDR. The state determines the amount of money and distributes loans to the companies. Many see it as inevitable that this will happen because of the huge financial difficulties. One of the main demands of Karl Marx in the “Communist Manifesto” would then be fulfilled.

[Skybird]

Gamestop - don't stop the game!

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.welt.de/kultur/article225217677/Schlacht-um-Gamestop-Gemeinsam-gegen-das-Empire.html

To protect the established sharks, the system meanwhile has started to play foul against private investors:

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.welt.de/finanzen/article225274191/Trade-Republic-Die-Bevormundung-der-Anleger.html

[Skybird]

The FED fiddles while the Dollar burns.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollars-reserve-currency-status-wont-last-forever

[Skybird]

Paper value owners must watch out because they have build their dream castle on quick sand. Gold holders must watch out due to the danger of state criminals installing another prohibition. Stock holders must watch out because of companies imploding are not value and the stock ownership cannot be hidden from the state: penalties on stocks can be installed like on any other known property, in many forms, mostly "taxes" and trading fees. After the second world war, Germany for example had land and house owners with debt-free property being plundered with state-installed mortgages of up to 50%, and stocks being obviously devalued for as obvious reasons.

No matter what our strategies are and were, stocks or ETFs or cash or bonds or diversification or bitcoins or gold or land/house property: WE ALL ARE IN HIGH DANGER. The whole system is to suffer a core meltdown.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crazy-days-money


One reason bitcoin holders see bitcoin becoming the new money is the gold prices’ muted response to increasing monetary debasement, compared with that of bitcoin. It is also argued that when investors would previously hedge fiat debasement by buying gold, they are now buying bitcoin.
There may be some truth in the deflection of buying from gold into bitcoin. But the argument fails when it is realised that the vast majority of buyers of bitcoin anticipate selling for a profit in the buyers’ base currency. - [Ha! I am telling this since years!] - The similarity is not with physical gold, but with investing in mines, ETFs and paper gold.
The real reason for gold’s underperformance is the establishment’s long-established antipathy towards it, something that should serve as a warning to hodlers of bitcoin. To regard gold as sound money is to turn one’s back to Keynesian macroeconomics, something the US Government, with its interest of promoting and retaining dollar hegemony has actively discouraged. In order to absorb demand for physical gold it has fostered the growth of paper markets, which can be expanded by the bullion banks at will. This policy goes beyond precious metals and includes base metals and other industrial raw materials as well, allowing the dollar to retain a more stable value measured against them than would otherwise be the case.

[Rockstar]

This is over a month old but it may not be over just yet, Joe Foster Portfolio Manager, VanEck International Investors Gold Fund thinks there maybe risk of hyper inflation and gold could go as high as $3,400 an ounce this year.

https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Outlook-2021/3160/2021-01-08/Hyperinflation-is-real-risk-gold-price-to-climb-as-high-as-$3400

[Skybird]

Gold prices soaring has been predicted since years, and while it went up a bit, it failed to do so at the ammounts predicted. States and central banks will not allow it to happen, since it would be a most obvious non-confidence vote for the paper currencies Dollar and Euro and all the other illusory payment tokens.

I take it for granted that the prices for gold get very heavily manipulated to keep them in check. That last but not least also means manipulation of demand bny strategically buying and selling huge deposits of gold, and paper market destraction operations, to call them this way. At leats in the West. Russia for exmaplek seems to play it much more serious , so do a number of Asien states. They try to disconnect from the dollar and indeed hold their gold, most of it, even increase it.

Before they let it go that high in price, they will prohibit private ownerhsip. Solidarity, social justice and the common good and all those phrases, you know. Hyperinflation as the ounsihement for sutpid finance politics must be taken by all, even by those trying to save themsleves by beign more intelligent and rosnsibkle: by trying to get prepared. It cannot be that these do not show their solidarity with the stupids and escape the havoc: by havign been prepared by their own means ans repsnsiblity. Self-responsibility? Where would it lead if we allow self-responsibility...??

If the price would not be manipulated, I am quite certain it would stand already somewhere between 7000 and 14000 Dollars - if not even significantly more.

Instead, they allowed many other paper stuff bubbles to form up again, and the property market is hopelessly overheated. They are the price for keeping "trust" in paper currency. In the US, people live to much wider degrees on credit, than over here, and if you tlak of saving, you almopst get aliughed at. But Corona maybe will end that. Many private households are drownign in different debts of theirs for different credit card companies. those holding mortages for small homes and not ebing able tom pay them - good night.

The high prices wealthier people accept to pay for certain stocks and property, only illustrate one thing: how desperately everybdoy seeks for a way to preserve his savings and converting his paper currency "welath" into somethign material of real welath (=bartering power), and not beeing punished for owning paper currency by having to pay "negative interest". As if something like negative interest could even exist. By the meaning of the term "interest", it must always be positive. Interests are positive by defintion. Else they are no interests.

All these things have been pushed (perverted) to way too clever standards. We are too clever. And its our witty, super-bright cleverness that will destroy us.


The times are near when many people will learn the bitter lesson that paper currency and cryptocurrency will not by them stuff to eat, and stuff of real value. Because then nobody will give away something for nothing.

I admit I am very worried, and afraid. A lot of savings will be lost, with all the consequences for your and my higher age savings and life expectancy cuts. And no ordinary man will escape from it - only those at the top of the food chain who are responsible for this decades-long mulling of penultimate desaster. The hyperinflation of the 20s last century, was regional, becasue the potics causign it were regional. Today these things havbe been piushed to global dimensions, and so the desaster will unfold globally. Thats why I wnat pltlkicians beign keot at an ultra-short line, and am agaunst big state and super-national political organisations. I somebody messes it up on this scale, the entire planet is affected, not just one region. Power to the local regions! And keep it there! And keep any taxes there, too! And make any relation between state and citizen a law contract that can be sued for in case of violation! Hold polticla amdinstrators perosnally accountable with their private wealth and property! Do not accept decision-makers exemtping themselves from the consequences of their decisions! Same for corporation managers!



"I take the political responsibility" today is just an empty phrase that means nothing.The yget away with whatever it was. Thjey cna keep their wins and gains. They miust not comepnsate, they must not fear court punsihement, and they can even return from another direction, and continue. "They are accepting resposibility?" They explicitly refuse to do so.

[Rockstar]

More on gold


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJIShMETtYY

[3catcircus]

Gold prices soaring has been predicted since years, and while it went up a bit, it failed to do so at the ammounts predicted. States and central banks will not allow it to happen, since it would be a most obvious non-confidence vote for the paper currencies Dollar and Euro and all the other illusory payment tokens.

I take it for granted that the prices for gold get very heavily manipulated to keep them in check. That last but not least also means manipulation of demand bny strategically buying and selling huge deposits of gold, and paper market destraction operations, to call them this way. At leats in the West. Russia for exmaplek seems to play it much more serious , so do a number of Asien states. They try to disconnect from the dollar and indeed hold their gold, most of it, even increase it.

Before they let it go that high in price, they will prohibit private ownerhsip. Solidarity, social justice and the common good and all those phrases, you know. Hyperinflation as the ounsihement for sutpid finance politics must be taken by all, even by those trying to save themsleves by beign more intelligent and rosnsibkle: by trying to get prepared. It cannot be that these do not show their solidarity with the stupids and escape the havoc: by havign been prepared by their own means ans repsnsiblity. Self-responsibility? Where would it lead if we allow self-responsibility...??

If the price would not be manipulated, I am quite certain it would stand already somewhere between 7000 and 14000 Dollars - if not even significantly more.

Instead, they allowed many other paper stuff bubbles to form up again, and the property market is hopelessly overheated. They are the price for keeping "trust" in paper currency. In the US, people live to much wider degrees on credit, than over here, and if you tlak of saving, you almopst get aliughed at. But Corona maybe will end that. Many private households are drownign in different debts of theirs for different credit card companies. those holding mortages for small homes and not ebing able tom pay them - good night.

The high prices wealthier people accept to pay for certain stocks and property, only illustrate one thing: how desperately everybdoy seeks for a way to preserve his savings and converting his paper currency "welath" into somethign material of real welath (=bartering power), and not beeing punished for owning paper currency by having to pay "negative interest". As if something like negative interest could even exist. By the meaning of the term "interest", it must always be positive. Interests are positive by defintion. Else they are no interests.

All these things have been pushed (perverted) to way too clever standards. We are too clever. And its our witty, super-bright cleverness that will destroy us.


The times are near when many people will learn the bitter lesson that paper currency and cryptocurrency will not by them stuff to eat, and stuff of real value. Because then nobody will give away something for nothing.

I admit I am very worried, and afraid. A lot of savings will be lost, with all the consequences for your and my higher age savings and life expectancy cuts. And no ordinary man will escape from it - only those at the top of the food chain who are responsible for this decades-long mulling of penultimate desaster. The hyperinflation of the 20s last century, was regional, becasue the potics causign it were regional. Today these things havbe been piushed to global dimensions, and so the desaster will unfold globally. Thats why I wnat pltlkicians beign keot at an ultra-short line, and am agaunst big state and super-national political organisations. I somebody messes it up on this scale, the entire planet is affected, not just one region. Power to the local regions! And keep it there! And keep any taxes there, too! And make any relation between state and citizen a law contract that can be sued for in case of violation! Hold polticla amdinstrators perosnally accountable with their private wealth and property! Do not accept decision-makers exemtping themselves from the consequences of their decisions! Same for corporation managers!



"I take the political responsibility" today is just an empty phrase that means nothing.The yget away with whatever it was. Thjey cna keep their wins and gains. They miust not comepnsate, they must not fear court punsihement, and they can even return from another direction, and continue. "They are accepting resposibility?" They explicitly refuse to do so.

It isn't our witty super brightness. It's that the people involved in politics and the markets are not as smart as they think they are - but they have the emotional cunning to convince people otherwise.

[Skybird]

Hey Super-Uschi - is' wohl nix mit Kuschel-Kuschel, eh?

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/konjunktur/vor-der-muenchener-sicherheitskonferenz-china-bleibt-ungezaehmt-und-will-per-zehnjahresplan-zur-weltherrschaft_id_12995334.html

Will keiner mit uns schmusen? Oooooohhhh...! :cry:

[Rockstar]

Gold prices soaring has been predicted since years, and while it went up a bit, it failed to do so at the ammounts predicted. States and central banks will not allow it to happen, since it would be a most obvious non-confidence vote for the paper currencies Dollar and Euro and all the other illusory payment tokens.

I take it for granted that the prices for gold get very heavily manipulated to keep them in check. That last but not least also means manipulation of demand bny strategically buying and selling huge deposits of gold, and paper market destraction operations, to call them this way. At leats in the West. Russia for exmaplek seems to play it much more serious , so do a number of Asien states. They try to disconnect from the dollar and indeed hold their gold, most of it, even increase it.

Before they let it go that high in price, they will prohibit private ownerhsip. Solidarity, social justice and the common good and all those phrases, you know. Hyperinflation as the ounsihement for sutpid finance politics must be taken by all, even by those trying to save themsleves by beign more intelligent and rosnsibkle: by trying to get prepared. It cannot be that these do not show their solidarity with the stupids and escape the havoc: by havign been prepared by their own means ans repsnsiblity. Self-responsibility? Where would it lead if we allow self-responsibility...??

If the price would not be manipulated, I am quite certain it would stand already somewhere between 7000 and 14000 Dollars - if not even significantly more.

Instead, they allowed many other paper stuff bubbles to form up again, and the property market is hopelessly overheated. They are the price for keeping "trust" in paper currency. In the US, people live to much wider degrees on credit, than over here, and if you tlak of saving, you almopst get aliughed at. But Corona maybe will end that. Many private households are drownign in different debts of theirs for different credit card companies. those holding mortages for small homes and not ebing able tom pay them - good night.

The high prices wealthier people accept to pay for certain stocks and property, only illustrate one thing: how desperately everybdoy seeks for a way to preserve his savings and converting his paper currency "welath" into somethign material of real welath (=bartering power), and not beeing punished for owning paper currency by having to pay "negative interest". As if something like negative interest could even exist. By the meaning of the term "interest", it must always be positive. Interests are positive by defintion. Else they are no interests.

All these things have been pushed (perverted) to way too clever standards. We are too clever. And its our witty, super-bright cleverness that will destroy us.


The times are near when many people will learn the bitter lesson that paper currency and cryptocurrency will not by them stuff to eat, and stuff of real value. Because then nobody will give away something for nothing.

I admit I am very worried, and afraid. A lot of savings will be lost, with all the consequences for your and my higher age savings and life expectancy cuts. And no ordinary man will escape from it - only those at the top of the food chain who are responsible for this decades-long mulling of penultimate desaster. The hyperinflation of the 20s last century, was regional, becasue the potics causign it were regional. Today these things havbe been piushed to global dimensions, and so the desaster will unfold globally. Thats why I wnat pltlkicians beign keot at an ultra-short line, and am agaunst big state and super-national political organisations. I somebody messes it up on this scale, the entire planet is affected, not just one region. Power to the local regions! And keep it there! And keep any taxes there, too! And make any relation between state and citizen a law contract that can be sued for in case of violation! Hold polticla amdinstrators perosnally accountable with their private wealth and property! Do not accept decision-makers exemtping themselves from the consequences of their decisions! Same for corporation managers!



"I take the political responsibility" today is just an empty phrase that means nothing.The yget away with whatever it was. Thjey cna keep their wins and gains. They miust not comepnsate, they must not fear court punsihement, and they can even return from another direction, and continue. "They are accepting resposibility?" They explicitly refuse to do so.
'
You are so right, in fact I'll add pretty much everything in the market can be manipulated especially with news. Just like GME, gold prices can move up or down on news alone. Right now it's said gold stocks are dropping on account of the vaccine roll out and economy predictions. The drop is no doubt triggering automatic stop lose and you can be certain someone is scooping up those shares. Where there is sellers there are buyers.

This could play right into the next big headline, the multi-trillion dollar stimulus package! Which may very well send gold right back up over $2000 again. And all those weak hands will be kicking themselves for selling when they did.

[Skybird]

Buy anonymous, do not let the state know you own something. What it knows you own it can and sooner or later will steal from you.

Do not buy what somebody wants to sell to you, it most likely is not worth much, thats why he wants to sell it. Do not sell what the other wants to buy from you, it probably means it is precious.

Do not expect the other to be stupid or to act stupidly. If later it turns out he was, thats an enjoyable bonus only! :D


And gold, gold always means physical gold, never paper gold. And physical gold is not investment to generate profit (that why accoriding arguments against it do not bite, the speaker has a paper selling agenda or does not know what he is talking of). Holding physical gold is a safety, the attempt to keep and protect what is yours. The purpose is that it is there - and more it must not do. Generating interest or profit is not why you buy gold. If things go well, it can be a side-effect. But it should never be the intention. Because history shows that gold also can move counter-intuitively and against the expected logic.

[Skybird]

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/hyperinflation-horizon


In the U.S., for example, the quantity of money, measured by M2, has increased (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-money-boom-is-already-here-11613944730?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter) by a whopping 26% in a single year. This is the largest annual increase since 1943.
[...]
If production capacity becomes limited at the same time due to, for example, damage from war or from large-scale corporate bankruptcies by other causes, consumption increases faster than production. In practice, there is more money chasing fewer products, and prices start to rise very rapidly. Moreover, politicians and bureaucrats tend not to be very skilled in the efficient management of businesses and they permit public pressure to influence their decisions. This leads to wasteful investments, falling productivity and unprofitable enterprises.
[...]
If a fast inflation emerges, central banks will eventually be forced to raise rates, almost certainly toppling over-leveraged, zombified firms and over-indebted, zombified European nations. Total chaos in the financial markets would obviously follow with world descending into recession or depression.

Weimarer Republic. 90s Russia.

[3catcircus]

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/hyperinflation-horizon


Weimarer Republic. 90s Russia.

This shouldn't be a surprise. The entire global economy is a facade. *Nothing* associated with the real value of things is true because monetary policy hasn't been tied to a fixed standard associated with valuable objects for decades. I don't care if you set it to gold, silver, or matchbox toy cars. The moment a country says "our money is backed by our country's reputation alone" is the moment your country's economy is controlled by someone else.

[Skybird]

A nations reputation alone can back a currency only if it is a worthless paper money, fiat money, contorlled and colelcted of inflated by the state at will. Thats why they implemented it. Material goods that can be bartered, will always find somebody who wills to barter something else for them. National reputation has nothing not do with that.

Thats why they do not want you to barter, may it be in gold, ressources or whatever. They want you to use their counterfeit currency, since only that is what they can control for some time. And if they take the apper oput of the cpaper moeny and make it all digital, they cna poludner and rob you per button pushing whenever they "legitimise themselves" to do so. The problem is the only way you can ever legtimise yourself for anything is - by using brute force against thy next. Which makes it then no legitimation at all, but only an act of violence.



Destroy a FIAT currency, and people will go back to bartering things. Install a new counterfeit paper "money" regime - they will, that is for certain - and see them punishing you with draconic penalties if you still barter (violations via blackmarkets usually get penalized very, very heftily.

[Skybird]

Slowly the curtain raises for the final chapter.



https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/global-inflation-nightmare-you-have-been-warned-about-here

[Rockstar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtEeOoqqS74

[mapuc]

^ Your video made me remember what I read in my search to understand
the great reset.

Other experts simply believe the dollar has been overvalued for quite some time, and a decrease is natural. It is not necessarily a sign of impending doom

https://hackernoon.com/will-we-witness-a-us-dollar-crash-in-2021-2gq3eba

Markus

[Skybird]

The more currency tokens are circulating, the higher asset prices become.



If somebody thinks that means an economy boom or the creation of wealth, then I cannot help him.



Voltaire: every paper "money" sooner or later inevitably returns to its original intrinsic value: zero.

[Rockstar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQ1YHAfTWPc


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug_q97QKDjk

[Skybird]

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article229112429/EU-Wiederaufbaufonds-Das-ist-der-Einstieg-in-eine-Schulden-Union.html





Now Germany is getting the debt union that it never wanted

The Bundestag is likely to wave through the EU reconstruction fund today. For the German taxpayer billions are in the fire. Even if solidarity is a must in crises: Anyone who wants to stabilize transfers and liability will end up damaging the European idea.
https://www.welt.de/img/deutschland/crop140132097/1641831615-ci5x10s-w450/Bilder-zur-Campus-Elite-Uni-Goettingen4kVrYn.jpg

Today a decision is pending in the Bundestag that could become expensive for Germany's taxpayers in the coming years and decades. Because the legislature presumably approves the ratification law for the so-called EU capital adequacy decision. The harmless-sounding term actually arouses associations with equity.
But far from it: Behind this is a debt instrument that, as a reconstruction fund, is intended to provide financial relief for the EU states, which have been additionally weakened by Corona, and thus revitalize them. It comprises a sum of 750 billion euros, of which 390 billion are non-repayable “grants” and 360 billion are loans (https://hpkiwxzajkgiqzze27bcwap75e--www-welt-de.translate.goog/themen/kredit/) .

But it is not just any rescue package like the one that has been given with each new flare-up of the smoldering euro crisis (https://hpkiwxzajkgiqzze27bcwap75e--www-welt-de.translate.goog/themen/euro-krise/) over the past ten years or more. This package fundamentally changes the financial architecture of the international community.
https://www.welt.de/img/deutschland/crop140132097/1228205147-ci5x10s-w450/Bilder-zur-Campus-Elite-Uni-Goettingen4kVrYn.jpg

Because in order to finance the donations, the EU wants to take out loans on the capital markets that are not repaid by the recipients but through the EU budget. The subsidy and repayment of the respective member states are separated from each other: Germany, for example, is the largest net contributor with an estimated 65 billion euros.

It is the first time ever that such a significant amount of funding has been raised through EU bonds and distributed to the Member States. And Germany, as the largest economy in the EU, is at the center of this plan: the whole structure depends on its creditworthiness, its economic strength.

And it is de facto the entry into a debt and transfer community. The member states are jointly liable for the fund's debts (https://hpkiwxzajkgiqzze27bcwap75e--www-welt-de.translate.goog/themen/schulden/) through their future contributions to the budget of the European Union . If one of them fails, the other states have to step in according to their share of the EU budget. For Germany, this share of the liability risk is 24 percent. There they are, so to speak, the Eurobonds that Germany never wanted.

The principles of personal responsibility and sole liability, as provided for in the Maastricht Treaties with the so-called “no-bail-out” rule, are history with the reconstruction fund.

And the new rules provide for one more refinement: the sometimes worryingly high debt levels of some of the member states should not be burdened by the new fund. You don't have to be a prophet to predict a more lax approach to conventional budget rules.
One of the main arguments for common European debts has always been to contain extremist and nationalist tendencies. That worked for this time: In Italy, approval ratings for the EU rose after the package was announced. But this mechanism harbors the potential for blackmail.

The money from this fund will also be spent at some point. Is it seriously to be expected that the Member States, which were already weakening economically before the Corona crisis, will succeed in turning towards a sustainable economy by then, which at least will not allow the debt level to rise any further? There are already voices - even from Germany itself - for whom there is no alternative to stabilizing liability through a fiscal union.

A community of states cannot do without solidarity, especially in crises like the current one. But anyone who, contrary to the original spirit of the idea of ​​a united Europe, wants to permanently establish liability and transfers in the Union will end up damaging the European idea instead of promoting it.
Peaceful coexistence on the continent will only be possible if the citizens of all states can be sure that each country basically takes economic responsibility for its own fate - with frugality, diligence and, where necessary, with renunciation. Also and above all the German taxpayers.

[Catfish]

Do it like England.. with offshore trusts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np_ylvc8Zj8

[Skybird]

And this ^ the EU has chosen as its most loved economic rival to challenge on its own ground and in its own game...? :haha: If only it has not bitten off more than it can chew once again... :D

[Catfish]

^ "probably" a bit too much to chew on :D
First part is more about history, but then it gets interesting indeed :03:

[Jimbuna]

And this ^ the EU has chosen as its most loved economic rival to challenge on its own ground and in its own game...? :haha: If only it has not bitten off more than it can chew once again... :D

Not all that risky when you know the price of failure will be paid by someone else :03:

[Skybird]

https://globalintelhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/m1fred-1024x341.png


Let's first understand this simple chart. M1 is money stock. Jan 2020 there was $4 Trillion, now there is $18 Trillion. $14 Trillion was created since Jan 2020 - that's a 78% increase (14 created / 18 total).




https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-04-12/hyperinflation-alert-78-us-dollars-created-last-12-months-dollar-debasement



Sorry guys, Crypto is a closed system that's built on fiat. (...) Don't fall victim to the hype machine, that Bitcoin is somehow an alternative to the fiat system, when it is denominated in USD! Oh, the irony.. not to mention Bitcoin uses an NSA patented encryption algorithm, SHA-256. And the NSA is coincidentally tracking Bitcoin users (https://theintercept.com/2018/03/20/the-nsa-worked-to-track-down-bitcoin-users-snowden-documents-reveal/).

Welcome hyperinflation, guys. Its not a thing of the future to come. Its here. It just gets cleverly diguised. And to some part, thankfully so. At least for the time being.

[Skybird]

For crypto fans, there is a lesson to learn in this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/turkey-bans-cryptocurrency-payments-saying-risks-are-too-great

Not only do you still sell and buy cryptocurrencies in FIAT currencies, but the state does control it, does track it, and can prohibit and prevent it any time. Even anonymously bought gold places itself more advantageously.

They manipualte FIAt moeny values. They amnipuklate gold prices. The ymanipzkate stockmarkets. How comes so many peope, think they do not track and manuolukate Bitcoins as well? It is anything but invulnerable! The illusion of security from it might be fallacious.

To me, the Bitcoin/Blockchain always rather has been more interesting as a technology. It is as much a real "money" as is FIAT money: not at all, since it has zero intrinsic value. Beyond that, its just a gamble.

[Skybird]

Whenever I read about this matter, I feel an icy hatred of this unscrupulous criminal system. I would wish the leaders and decision makers in this institutionalised exceution of utmost perfidy would just drop dead in place. Being told the most blatant of lies and propaganda BS right to my face, is offence most unforgivable. Becasue they tell me they not onloy intend to plunder me at their will, but that they consider to be me braindead, reatarded and a complete idiot who cannot differ left from right and up from down.

Criminal scum. Organised crime.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.achgut.com/artikel/bargeldzahlern_sollen_die_fluegel_beschnitten_werd en

[Rockstar]

For crypto fans, there is a lesson to learn in this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/turkey-bans-cryptocurrency-payments-saying-risks-are-too-great

Not only do you still sell and buy cryptocurrencies in FIAT currencies, but the state does control it, does track it, and can prohibit and prevent it any time. Even anonymously bought gold places itself more advantageously.

They manipualte FIAt moeny values. They amnipuklate gold prices. The ymanipzkate stockmarkets. How comes so many peope, think they do not track and manuolukate Bitcoins as well? It is anything but invulnerable! The illusion of security from it might be fallacious.

To me, the Bitcoin/Blockchain always rather has been more interesting as a technology. It is as much a real "money" as is FIAT money: not at all, since it has zero intrinsic value. Beyond that, its just a gamble.


2021 will may be the year crypto currency withers away.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ransomware-attacks-add-to-bitcoins-woes-shining-a-light-on-the-use-of-cryptocurrencies-in-crime/ar-BB1gTUsg


"Attacks on critical US infrastructure facilitated by cryptocurrencies will not go unnoticed by the US government and other countries. I would argue that the regulatory threat to cryptocurrencies has increased exponentially."


Critics of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have long argued that they facilitate crime thanks to their anonymous and decentralized nature, which means they are very hard to trace and link to individuals.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in January (https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-cryptocurrency-should-be-curtailed-terrorism-concerns-yellen-2021-1) that she was concerned about cryptocurrencies for this reason. "I think many are used - at least in a transaction sense - mainly for illicit financing," she told lawmakers during her confirmation hearing.


Gary Gensler, the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission markets regulator, has made similar criticisms in the past.


"Beyond use on the darknet, there are those around the globe who seek to use these new technologies to thwart government oversight of money laundering, tax evasion, terrorism financing, or evading sanctions regimes," he told Congress (https://www.congress.gov/115/meeting/house/108562/witnesses/HHRG-115-AG00-Wstate-GenslerG-20180718.pdf) in 2018.


Although cryptocurrency companies that deal with customers in the US are covered by various financial regulations, the digital asset markets is largely a grey area outside the traditional world of finance. Regulators have consistently warned that investors should only buy in if they're willing to lose all their money (https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/cryptocurrencies-bitcoin-dogecoin-risks-lose-money-bank-of-england-andrew-bailey-1030396958).

[Skybird]

Oh yes, the "fight against crime", against terrorism, against money laundering and tax evasion. The Golden Bullet to apologize for ever more extensive state totalitarianism and the incapacitating total control of the citizen, his being-put-under-general-suspicion, as long as he has not proven his innocence. Was it not even different in the old legal system of our culture, a long time ago: inadmissible as long as the guilt is not proven? And wasn't the burden of proof with the plaintiff instead of the defendant?

Whether cryptocurrency or a ban on cash, these are all just propaganda lies by the political regimes and their vicarious agents: the central and commercial banks, and their primary weapon of crime: the FIAT money system. It is these who represent the core of the actual crime, the operators and inventors of the FIAT money system, for the excessive deformations of it, where normal citizens are supposed to be plundered and robbed, for which they are being prepared with a ban on cash and bitcoins that ties them to the table so that it is all the more safe to assault the defenseless victims afterwards, who can then no longer escape. It's about robbery and looting: run by central banks and governments.

In principle, not much has changed since the Middle Ages, there is still a professional criminality called the political establishment that rises above the general public and makes them submissive with lies and clever tricks, but ultimately regards them as their property and serfs, who even are to pay for the antics of those who ultimately empower themselves, and to pay for their wounds. Try to get rid of these fine needle-walk gangsters, go there and unselect them, chase them down! You cannot. They keep coming back, they are always being supplied with posts and influentous new posiitons and titles. They cannot be killed, and they breed their own successors in their law systems and organsiation and potical hierarchies designed to support their egoist needs and keep the public away and unáware and impotent. -

Does anyone really believe that terrorists and organized crime are so stupid as to pay their millions in cash at the bank counter? Do they even have to? Don't they have their mafia lawyers and political buddies and corporate advisors and legal money laundering facilities to simply circumvent these measures such as a cash and bitcoin ban?

No, these measures are not aimed at crime, they never were, just as a gold ban was never aimed at organized crime, but against private financial provision; they target the citizen who tries to withdraw his private fortune from the state kleptocrats and professional gangsters of the FED and ECB, who want to put private fortune under the total disposal power of tax offices and banks with negative interest rates and digital money, so that these fortunes can be scooped up at will and this as a "Service fee" can be trivialized, and thus credit card institutes fees for their - unnecessary! - "Services" can be adjusted upwards at will due to the lack of alternative cash payments. Ultimately, the looting of private property is glorified by placing the legal owner of the same property under general suspicion, and his guilt is considered proven as long as he cannot prove his innocence - and that with every new occurrence. The guilt of the real criminals - the central banks and financial authorities as agents of the largest organized crime cartels that exist on this planet: the states and governments - is being passed on to their victims.

Damn thug pack, all as they are.

Anger. Just pure anger. And when relatively harmless ordinary citizens like me begin to lose their inhibitions, one can imagine the potential for explosive outbreaks fermenting beneath the surface of our societies. The bolder the criminal pack in the international political and banking institutions operates its conspiracies, the bolder the brazen propaganda lies with which people are sold for stupid, the louder the bang will be in the end. And the times when I would help prevent this, are long gone.

Quit it.

-----

The Eu has sued Germany becasue the - formally plltically independent - German Constitutional High court dared to criticise the European High Court over its state_fioanncing polcies, whcih they de facto are: state-fioanncing money polticies - that by rule and European treaty and laws are illegal and not allowed. The eU now says that this refleciton on and criticism of f the European Court is not allowed and illegal and has sued Germany over it. What it implies is that the European institutions are infalliable and can never err, and of course can never be corrupted. What do the EU gangster expect the German to do now? The government gagging the court?

I see also a psyhcological issue at hand here. Super-Uschi, the carricature of a commission president, is German by natiuonality, and like many German politicians she looks down on her Germanness as if it were the plague. To demonstrate her anti-German germanness, to call it this way, and her neutrality, she now popens fire at germany, like she already helped anti-German Merkel in preventing Germany dpoijng its best to secure vaccinatrion doses by its own, and instead turnign it into the EU vaccination deaster where instead thwe "community" buys doses collectively - all under the caretaking and wonderful caring hand and supervision of the EU, of course.

There have been since years ambition sin the eU parliament to make any criticskm of the eU, its polcies and insttitiuoions, a piunishable crime. There are those who want an official EU institution where criticism gets filed, and then this EU institution decides whethere the EU can afford to allow this criticism, else the perso voicing it gets persecuted. When I first red about this group of politicians (from all party blocks in the eU parliament, btw!) over ten years ago, I had my lunch dripping off the monitor. Gan gster and ideologists do n ot weant to stop their evil doing. They just want to ban calling it evil doing. Whjo does so, becomes the offender. The real offender - themselves - always is beyond doubt. Dont we have rule to settle such things in a civilised manner? Dont we have law and order? Aren't there official, government-certified valves to steam off anger and rage? Isnt fight against money laundering and tax evasion a good thing so that it justifies to destroy freedoms ever more? Isn't the war on drugs working well? Isn'T BVrmode and Flouride in your food and water positive for your teeth and health?
Arten'T you a socially responsible, honest citizen?

If you have nothiugn tio hide, you must not fear control. Obey, submit, hand yourself over, and be safe.


Attributed to Benjamin Franklin:


"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

[FireDragon76]

Two quotes from the master himself:

"The gold standard did not collapse. Governments abolished it in order to pave the way for inflation. The whole grim apparatus of oppression and coercion, policemen, customs guards, penal courts, prisons, in some countries even executioners, had to be put into action in order to destroy the gold standard."

"The illusiveness of this concept of national income is to be seen in its dependence on changes in the purchasing power of the monetary unit. The more inflation progresses, the higher rises the national income."

L.v. Mises

"Strange times", Neal? Absolutely terrifying, I say. ;) Beyond "dug deep in and take cover", I have run out of advice.


That's old hat that happened almost a century ago, for a variety of reasons, some good, some bad. More significant is Nixon's creation of the petrodollar to shore up America's economy by forcing countries to buy US dollars.


The guy that educated me on the petrodollar and what it was (I had no knowledge of this stuff in school, they don't teach it), was an ex military intelligence analyst.

[Rockstar]

The days of paper currency are soon coming to a close.

The Federal Reserve is taking what may be the first significant step toward launching its own virtual currency, a move that could shake up banks, give millions of low-income Americans access to the financial system and fortify the dollar's status as the world’s reserve currency.

The idea of creating a fully digital version of the U.S. dollar, which was unthinkable just a few years ago, has gained bipartisan interest from lawmakers as diverse as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and John Kennedy (R-La.) because of its potential benefits for consumers who don’t have bank accounts. But it’s also sparking strong pushback from those with the most to lose: banks.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/12/fed-remake-us-dollar-493548

[Skybird]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russias-190-billion-sovereign-wealth-fund-nearly-done-dumping-dollars
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/gold1_1.png?itok=2F5FMlmO


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/first-time-ever-russia-drops-under-50-exports-sold-us-dollars
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/562409-2.png?itok=gVLINEAc

[Rockstar]

R’oh r’oh Raggy

https://youtu.be/yjBdu2JBYSM

[Skybird]

Producer prices in Germany have risen by over 8 percent in the last 12 months. Thats the highest mark since over 40 years.



Well. The music started playing, now the carousel starts turning.

[Skybird]

Austrian "Die Presse" writes:

Brussels is currently considering a central "property register" for all inmates of the Union. This is not a good idea because it not only makes money laundering more difficult. When new standards in the European Union are justified by the fact that they are necessary to combat money laundering and tax evasion, a certain amount of skepticism is always required. For example, if, as just planned, an upper limit for the use of cash is to be introduced, which not only makes money laundering more difficult, but above all enables the control and taxation of citizens. -

In this light, a call for tenders by the EU Commission will also have to be assessed, which was placed discreetly online in the middle of the summer when many journalists are on vacation in Brussels. A feasibility study for a future "EU asset register" is being put out to tender. The Commission itself expresses its aim openly: “The aim of this project is to examine various options for collecting information on the establishment of an asset register, which can then be used in a future political initiative. The aim is to examine how information available from various sources of property ownership (e.g. land registers, business registers, trust and foundation registers, central securities depositaries, etc.) can be collected and linked, and the design, scope and challenges for such a Union property register. ”Further:“ The possibility of including data on the ownership of other assets such as cryptocurrencies, works of art, real estate and gold in the register must also be taken into account. ”(“ Feasibility study for a European property register in With regard to combating money laundering and tax evasion ", 2021 / S 136-358265 of July 16, 2021) -

What emerges here - possibly, the matter is still at the beginning - is the financially transparent EU citizen whose property, from the hoarded gold coins to the account balance, can be called up at any time. You don't have to suffer from severe paranoia to find this strange. The mere fact that tax authorities can de facto gain access to every account without any problems is incompatible with the discretionary claim of a bourgeois-liberal society. The idea that in future a central authority will be able to access the property status of every EU inmate is even more worrying. -

The argument that someone who has nothing to hide does not have to shy away from transparency falls short of the mark. Countries like Germany or Austria, with their sometimes excessive data protection requirements, should understand this. Because here not only abuse is to be feared, but a total access of the state to all assets of its citizens, should that one day be politically desired. As a reminder: At the height of the corona crisis, it was not possible to collect data that was absolutely sensible in order to meet data protection requirements. For the lame and flimsy argument “money laundering” this has to apply even more. -

An EU property register makes much more sense if you follow the debate in Canada: In view of the highly inflated national debt caused by the corona, the head of the social democratic New Democratic Party proposes that the wealthy be subject to a property tax of one percent per year; other “Tax the Rich” proponents are calling for a one-off tax of three percent. -

The problem with such taxes has been that they are difficult to implement because the tax office cannot always know which valuables the taxpayer has deposited where. Unless, of course, he is forced from the outset and under threat of punishment to report his entire property to the authorities - ideally across Europe so that loopholes do not arise in the first place. This has relatively little to do with money laundering - but such an “asset register” is an excellent preparation for partial expropriations. -


----


Earlier this month, the german ministry for financial crime, expropriation, blackmailing and money inflation, and the godfathers of the organised crime in the government and parliament have turned active a new law that quietly reversed a basic pillar of western law, namely the presumption of innocence. Due to the now existing obligation to provide receipts for cash deposits of annual sums of over 10,000 euros, everyone who has monetary values is ultimately declared a criminal who no longer even has to be accused of the crime, but who, by definition, is criminal because of circumstances - until he has proven himself as innocent. The criminal act, the crime no longer has to be proven, the claim of guilt must not be proven anymore - the accused must prove his innocence instead. The propaganda lie, with which this is excused, is of course the fight against tax evasion and money laundering, the usual opportunistic bull. As if organised crime would be affected in any way by this! Of course the purpose is another one: plundering ordinary people's private savings that they have withdrawn from bank accounts so that banks can no longer steal penalty fees for savings beyond 50000 and 100000 euros , and pushign people to abandoning cash payment and money and accept digital money exclusively - and then being totally helpless and defenceless against any taxation, expropriaton and plundering by banks and government and the EU. That is the only reason and always has been the only reason why they want to destroy cash money use.

While they of course say nobody wants to destroy cash money.

And Walther Ulbricht said nobody had the intention to build an inner-German wall.



And Bush said they know that the had them and where they are (Iraq's claimed nukes).

The worst and most malicious criminals and gangster all sit in government, central banks, and ministries.

I will not resist any violent revolution that overthrows these conditions and kills them mafia scumbags all, like the French revolution got rid of the French aristocratic class in a very brutla and overboardening fashion, and then drowned all France in blood. If these criminal ways are their vision for the future, I prefer the brutal alternative as self-defence. This scum has long since started with pushing its crimes too far. They render people like me defenceless against their coups and want people like me and all population helpless and naked and dependent and completely at their mercy, and that is when I do not mind anymore to see it all getting destroyed, because then I have nothing to lose anymore, only maybe something to win.

When I made my quarterly payment to balance my banking account (I hold no money savings on bank accounts anymore, since years), I was treated like a terrorist and threatened with prosecution and a mission started on me by the Finanzfahndung if I do not file receipts and documentations within shortest time.

I hope I live to see it all going up in flames. Because I am pissed beyond recovery.

[Skybird]

I just red that the federöla state Brandenburg has almost 4000 energy windmills. Over 400 of them will soon drop out of a subvention scheme.

They will get deconstructed. Plenty of critical materials.

Why do they not continue to operate? Although they had over 20 years time to do so, they did not manage to ever get into an economically profitable range (which can nobody really surprise).

In other words: only endless subventions kept them alive.

[mapuc]

It has been in the news here the last few days.

The upcoming collapse of the Chinese company Evergrande.

China’s embattled developer Evergrande is on the brink of default. Here’s why it matters

“Evergrande’s collapse would be the biggest test that China’s financial system has faced in years,” says Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economic

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/china-developer-evergrande-debt-crisis-bond-default-and-investor-risks.html

In the comment threads where Danish newspaper is mentioned this lots of people are taking about the Great Reset.

Edit
the stock market has shown red the last few days here in Denmark and Sweden.
End edit.

Markus

[Skybird]

Risk of a huge blackout grows.
FOCUS Online writes:


Because this year there was neither a strong wind nor the sun to be seen sufficiently, coal is again Germany's most important energy supplier. This turns energy supply plans upside down, increases the risk of a blackout and, in the short term, drives up coal and gas prices.

The energy turnaround in Germany has been reversed this year: from energy generation, which in the first half of 2020 had already shifted to renewable energy sources, it turned back significantly in the first half of 2021: instead of just under 52 percent of the electricity consumed, only 44 came Percent from renewable sources. The significantly larger part came from coal, nuclear energy and natural gas. Of these three energy sources, coal made up the largest share with 27 percent. Coal-fired power plants are by far the largest producers of the climate-damaging gas CO2.

The data come from the Federal Statistical Office. They are explosive in light of the fact that the majority of the parties, with a view to ramping up alternative energy sources, first decided to phase out nuclear power around ten years ago and last year to phase out coal-fired power generation. In addition, until two months ago there was controversial discussion among the parties about the completion of the Nordstream II gas pipeline.

The Greens had called for an appeal to be signed against the completion, because the pipeline was "a bet against the European climate targets" and should never be realized. The pipeline has now been completed. However, there are still EU rules in the way of commissioning, which require unbundling between gas suppliers and pipeline operators. In the election campaign last week, the Union had also presented a concept according to which Germany should satisfy its hunger for electricity from renewable energies as quickly as possible.

By gradually shutting down power plants that work with fossil fuels, the risk of a blackout - i.e. a total power failure - increases significantly if the alternative energy sources are currently unable to deliver. In its current overview, the Federal Office for Civil Protection in Bonn has therefore rated the likelihood of a catastrophe caused by a power failure in Germany being higher than any other risk. The civil protection activists also rate the damage higher than, for example, a new pandemic or rain floods that hit West Germany in midsummer.

The Office for Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag has been warning of a blackout for years: “The impact analyzes have shown that after a few days in the affected area, the nationwide and needs-based supply of the population with essential goods and services can no longer be guaranteed. Public security is at risk, the constitutional duty to protect life and limb of its citizens can no longer be met by the state. "

At the moment, however, the decline in the production of electricity from solar and wind energy caused by the doldrums and rain is initially leading to rising prices for gas and coal. The gas supply is a particular headache for the experts. Before the start of the heating season, supplies are far too scarce at the end of September. According to the comparison portal Verivox, 32 regional gas providers have announced price increases averaging 12.6 percent for September and October. When heating a single-family house, this leads to additional costs of 188 euros per year. Between January and July alone, the increase in import prices, which are determined by the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control, was around 42 percent.

The situation is similar with coal. The world market price for coal has increased more than three-and-a-half-fold since September 2020 to meanwhile up to 177 dollars per ton. That is the highest price in ten years. This means that the raw material price for coal has risen significantly faster than the two asset classes that have seen the strongest growth to date: real estate and stocks. Disruptions in the supply chain, a drought in China and, above all, the increased demand for energy due to the recovery of the global economy have caused the price of coal to skyrocket and "made one of the world's most unpopular commodities into one of the best investments," noted British commodity traders.

[Skybird]

And Deutsche Welle supplements the above with this:



Energy costs are soaring in Europe, with ordinary citizens and businesses worst-hit. Weather has played a big role, although there are also questions over Russia's gas supply. The onset of winter is adding to worries.

All across Europe, electricity bills for households and businesses have been rising dramatically. They have increased steadily throughout 2021, but in September, the upward surge has been dramatic. This month alone, wholesale power prices in Germany have risen by almost 50%.

Prices are hitting record highs as a combination of factors buffets Europe's energy sector. The main cause is a global gas shortage — the price of natural gas has quadrupled in Europe since the start of the year.

The situation appears to be getting worse, and many governments are now fearful of blackouts and fuel poverty ahead of an inevitable jump in demand throughout the winter.

In the United Kingdom, the country's largest energy companies have requested an emergency bailout package from the government. Five smaller suppliers have already gone out of business over the last month, unable to pay for energy they had already committed to supplying to businesses. Others fear they could go to the wall in the coming days and weeks.

In Spain, the government has already passed emergency legislation to reduce the soaring price of energy bills for consumers by redirecting profits from energy companies. Italy is expected to unveil a €4.5-billion ($5.28-billion) support package for households this week, while France has already introduced subsidies for millions of low-income households adversely hit by price hikes.

According to Verivox, a website which compares energy prices, prices in Germany have risen by an average of 12.6% in September and October. Verivox said such an increase is equal to €188 ($220) a year in extra heating costs for a family home.

But why is this happening? Europe gets its energy from various sources, with natural gas accounting for around 20% of that supply. Individual countries are more reliant on it than others; Germany, for example, uses it to heat around half of households.

The gas squeeze has largely been prompted by the weather. The last European winter was unusually cold, depleting stocks of stored natural gas. Normally this would be replenished during the spring and summer in preparation for the next winter, but one of the coldest Aprils in two decades further hit stock.

Then there is the Russian question. Russia's gas exporting monopoly Gazprom, which provides around a third of all Europe's natural gas, has this year steadfastly refused to increase supply in "spot markets," where natural gas is bought as the need arises, often to fill a short-term need — as opposed to longer-term contracts planned well in advance.

The reasons are a source of intrigue and debate. Russia has its own increased storage needs to meet, but some commentators have speculated that Russia has held back supplies to put pressure on the European Union to fully embrace the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Last week, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said the new Baltic Sea pipeline would "significantly balance price parameters for natural gas in Europe."

Other factors have combined to exacerbate the problem. An unusually hot Asian summer led to an increase in demand for air conditioning and, as a result, electricity. That further hit natural gas supplies.

Russian gas monopoly Gazprom has apparently withheld supplies from Europe, but the reasons why are unclear

There have also been issues with the alternatives. Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been rising fast around the world, particularly in Asia due to rapid economic and population growth. That has hit supply to Europe, with a significant drop in imports in 2021 compared with 2020.

Coal is another alternative, but the price is also now routinely at record highs, partly due to the gas crisis but also because of the bloc's increasingly strict climate change policies. The EU's carbon market is experiencing an unprecedented price boom. The EU's emissions trading system (ETS) sees the owners trade "carbon credits," which allow them to emit carbon dioxide at a cost dictated by the market. The price has been hitting new records all year, a trend that is likely to continue.

The EU's 2030 and 2050 climate goals have seen the bloc set ambitious targets for the amount of renewable energy it uses relative to other sources. In 2019, renewable energy represented 19.7% of energy consumed in the EU. The target for 2030 is 32%.

But renewable energy sources have also been hit recently. Wind energy has been Germany's top producer of electricity in recent years, but its share of the electric grid dropped from 29% to 22% in the first half of 2021. That, too, was driven by the weather and the unusually still conditions at wind farms.

As a result of this and the rise in the carbon price, Europe's energy price crisis has led to accusations that the bloc's climate change policies are to blame, the charge being that the transition to a climate-neutral future is too expensive for consumers.

The transition to renewable energy requires a lot of investment, but that's not the main reason for surging electricity prices

In the European Parliament last week, during a debate on the European Commission's "Fit for 55" climate legislation proposals, several European lawmakers spoke of anger expressed by citizens at how climate change policies were affecting energy prices.

However, Frans Timmermans, the European Commission vice president in charge of climate issues, has rejected the charge, saying the gas shortage was the primary reason for the energy crisis and that increasing costs strengthened the argument for speeding up the transition to renewable sources.

The overall picture is very complex. but for consumers all across Europe, it's quite simple: Their heating and electricity costs a lot more. The scenario governments are desperate to avoid ahead of the winter is blackouts, for consumers and businesses alike.

A mild winter would obviously solve a lot of problems, as would an improvement in wind conditions. Likewise, were Russia to increase gas supply — either through existing pipelines or through the as-of-yet unapproved Nord Stream 2 — then prices would likely come down.

If that does not happen, and if this European winter is as cold as the last, the energy crisis could become a defining one for the EU. Businesses and citizens are already starting to feel the chill.




Time to check my prepper reserves. :cool:

[Skybird]

Brace yourself everybody in Europe, winter is coming.

Achse-des-Guten writes:


The electricity crisis is here. And winter is coming

What has been announced for years by Rüdiger Stobbe and others in countless expert articles on Achgut has now come true : The Europe of the energy transition has a crisis-ridden power shortage. The first factories shut down due to a lack of electricity, citizens demonstrate against skyrocketing electricity prices, and large-scale blackouts threaten. The American news agency Bloomberg sums up (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-18/europe-faces-bleak-winter-energy-crisis-years-in-the-making?srnd%3Dpremium-europe) the general situation:
“Europe is preparing for a harsh winter. An energy crisis that has been conjured up for years is forcing the continent to rely on the whims of the weather. With gas and electricity prices rising, countries from Great Britain to Germany have to hope for mild temperatures in order to survive the heating season. Europe lacks gas and coal, and if the wind doesn't blow, the worst scenario could arise: widespread power outages forcing companies and factories to close. "
The Viennese daily Die Presse reports (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.diepresse.com/6034818/europa-im-strompreis-schock) under the heading “Europe in the electricity price shock”:
“This winter is going to be expensive. Shortly before the start of the heating season, Europe's gas storage facilities are as empty as they have not been for a long time. And the prices for electricity and natural gas on the stock exchanges climb to new record levels almost every day. Gas is three times more expensive today than it was at the beginning of the year. And anyone who wants to buy electricity wholesalers has to pay more than twice as much as they did a few months ago. "
On the Irish island - usually an electricity exporter - the network operators EirGrid (Republic of Ireland) and SONI (Northern Ireland) warn (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/ireland-at-risk-of-power-cuts-after-new-amber-warning-1.4669712) customers that there are “no more reserves”; “If something goes wrong”, there will be widespread power outages. The Moyle Interconnector, which is used to transfer electricity from the island of Ireland to Scotland, has been shut down to prevent electricity exports. In August, Irish newspapers reported (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/up-to-25-of-state-electricity-demand-in-july-generated-by-coal-1.4657160) that in July, up to 25 percent of the electricity needed in Ireland was temporarily produced by the only coal-fired power station, Moneypoint. The government decided (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://ieefa.org/ireland-to-close-its-only-coal-plant-convert-site-to-offshore-wind-hub/) in the spring to (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://ieefa.org/ireland-to-close-its-only-coal-plant-convert-site-to-offshore-wind-hub/) switch this off in the next few years in order to achieve its climate targets.
In Spain, which shut down (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.powerengineeringint.com/coal-fired/spains-remaining-coal-fired-plants-likely-to-be-phased-out-by-2025/) seven of its 15 coal-fired power plants last year , there have been demonstrations (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2021/06/05/spains-electricity-price-rise-sparks-protests-in-barcelona-and-cordoba/) against high electricity prices for months . In the Galician city of Vigo, the police arrested a 54-year-old who had thrown (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2021/09/01/electricity-office-windows-smashed-by-man-protesting-against-high-prices-in-galicia-region-of-spain/) stones into the windows of the local branch of the energy supplier Naturgy . According to press reports, the man told the police that he was "unable to keep himself in check" after receiving his electricity bill.


Spain's government, in which the Marxist party Podemos is also involved, announced this month that it would lower the electricity tax from 5.1 to 0.5 percent. In addition, it wants to tax energy suppliers more heavily and has set maximum prices for the price of natural gas that end consumers have to pay. In other words, it wants to drive energy companies into bankruptcy.
In the UK , (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/16/fears-for-uk-recovery-as-record-energy-prices-shut-fertiliser-plants) the Guardian newspaper reports (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/16/fears-for-uk-recovery-as-record-energy-prices-shut-fertiliser-plants) :
"Record energy prices have forced two fertilizer plants in the north of England to close and steel mills to a standstill."
The paper calls this one of the "clearest signs that the energy crisis in Europe could deal a blow to the economic recovery". It also says:
“The US fertilizer manufacturer CF Industries has stopped production at its plants in Billingham in Teesside and Ince in Cheshire, which employ around 600 workers, due to soaring gas prices, which have successively reached record highs across Europe in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs, a major commodities trader, warned heavy industry across Europe was at risk of power outages this winter, especially if there were frosts across Europe and Asia by 2022. The warning came when UK Steel, the industry trade association, said steelmakers were already forced to stop working during peak electricity demand due to market prices for electricity. The energy price shock led to calls to UK ministers toUrgent action to protect homes and businesses as governments across Europe push bailout deals to help energy consumers weather the coming winter. "


In Norway, the fertilizer company Yara also had to close a factory because the price of natural gas is too high. The British meat industry association warns (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://fortune.com/2021/09/20/uk-shortage-carbon-dioxide-food-industry-christmas-turkey/) that there is no longer enough CO2 as a result of the closed fertilizer factories. This is a by-product of the natural gas splitting in the fertilizer factories and is needed, among other things, for stunning animals before slaughter. Now there is also a threat of meat shortages.
In an “ explanatory text (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-gas-supply-explainer) ” for the population, the British government explains what it believes are the causes of the trouble. There is talk of the world economy and especially Asia using more gas in the course of the "reopening after the lockdown", which is why there is less of it for the British. Then the winter was also cold. And finally, the “weather” has recently been unfavorable again. Why is it winter again on the island? It is not explained. What is meant is something that should not be said: the wind has not played along (https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/woher_kommt_der_strom_woche_35_finger_in_der_energ iewunde?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=ajax,elem) lately. Because the wind did not blow as required, the electricity has to be generated elsewhere. The UK electricity mix on September 18, 2021, 9 p.m .: nuclear 16.9%, natural gas 48.6%, coal 1.7%, wind 14.1%, solar 0.0%, hydropower 0.5%, import 11 , 1%, memory 1.0%, other 0.5%.
Now a slack in the wind market inevitably leads to exploding natural gas prices - especially since not only Great Britain depends on natural gas as the primary energy source, but all countries in the world that are treading the path of "renewable energies" and building Potemkin villages out of wind turbines.
A good example of this is - alongside Germany - the US state of California, which presents (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.energy.ca.gov/programs-and-topics/topics/renewable-energy) itself as a state that leads “the nation on the way to the future of 100 percent clean energy”. The truth is that California is the United States' largest importer of electricity (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id%3D46156) . Where does the imported electricity come from? Mainly from the Intermountain Power Plant (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermountain_Power_Plant) , a coal-fired power plant in Utah. At the same time, California and the other two democratically governed states on the west coast - Oregon and Washington State - are resisting the construction of a terminal with which coal from the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming could be shipped to Asia. The result: The coal workers in the Powder River Basin lose their jobs (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.thesheridanpress.com/news/regional-news/layoffs-from-bridger-mine-closure-not-surprise/article_8f938e84-1bca-11ec-bf1a-ff3a3acb2577.html). As Hillary Clinton announced in (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-biggest-campaign-mistake-2017-9) 2016 : "We will still make many coal workers unemployed."


Because the wind is only a little more reliable than the promises made by politicians, the reliable electricity that nuclear and coal-fired power plants used to provide has to be generated by burning natural gas. And that is a scarce - and expensive - good.
On June 30, the British government announced that the “coal exit” had been brought forward by one year to October 2024. Energy and Climate Change Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan said (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought-forward-to-october-2024) :
“Today we are sending a clear signal around the world that the UK is about to put coal-fired power in the history books and that we are serious about decarbonising our electricity system so that we can meet our ambitious, world-leading climate goals. Britain's net zero future is powered by renewable energy, and it is this technology that will fuel the green industrial revolution and create new jobs across the country. "
Now it's time to take the command back. The remaining coal-fired power plants would be paid "huge sums" to "keep the lights on," writes (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/13/britain-last-coal-power-stations-to-be-paid-huge-sums-to-keep-lights-on-record-energy-prices) the Guardian .
In the UK, many electricity traders are now bankrupt because the current wholesale prices they have to pay are well above the limit set (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58090533) by the government in January 2019 for end users . Now the interventionist government is trying to persuade the not yet bankrupt suppliers to accept hundreds of thousands of new customers. "Unfortunately, small suppliers are feeling the pressure of suddenly rising gas prices," tweeted (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1439614627885768706) Economics Minister Kwasi Kwarteng on September 19; If necessary, the government will set up a “special administrator” together with the network operator so that all British people will continue to be supplied with electricity.
Further reports on the situation:


Amos Hochstein, the US State Department's energy security officer, worries (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-13/dutch-gas-extends-rally-as-u-s-says-europe-isn-t-doing-enough?utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_campaign%3Dsocia lflow-organic%26utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_content%3Dmark ets%26cmpid%253D%3Dsocialflow-twitter-markets%26sref%3DDLVyDcXJ) that Europe's natural gas stocks will be too low before the start of the heating season. "If the winter gets cold, they are not enough." Shouldn't this concern rather be on the mind of the German government?
Italy's electricity prices will soon be increased by 40 percent. "In the last quarter, electricity prices rose by 20 percent and in the next they will rise by 40 percent," said (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.thelocal.it/20210914/electricity-prices-in-italy-set-to-surge-by-up-to-40-percent-over-next-quarter/) Roberto Cingolani, Italy's Minister for Ecological Transition, at a trade union conference. "It has to be said. We have to face it. This happens because the gas price is rising internationally and because the CO2 price is rising. "
Javier Blas, the energy correspondent for Bloomberg News, tweeted (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1438071323071287299) : If you convert the current price of natural gas into a price per barrel of oil using a conversion formula commonly used in the markets, you get a price of 150 US dollars per barrel - more than the previous record in the year 2008.
Steam coal prices in Asia have climbed (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coal-prices-surge-power-crunch-040001154.html?guccounter%3D1%26guce_referrer%3DaH R0cHM6Ly9zdGFydHBhZ2UuY29tLw%26guce_referrer_sig%3 DAQAAAHaBWzR5CsTdceiLHrtyo241MvX5pTD1y_1JMGG0d3ykM fFFDfHAj-upIC11VROFlCG4oXB4hW7gFY-vzeHQShL8PwH4zbiSPaEzUpaXATQ_Kel0P0IRA8YeYH9IAaK5h JrD6Kk3yd_44DJtk3BOBpkA2JVJ1ys77i3c27O7s-kb) to a 13-year high . Newcastle, Australia's benchmark has more than doubled this year. "If demand is rising but there is no supply to respond, that's what comes out," said Andrew Cosgrove, mining analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.
A state-run Chinese newspaper warns (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-20/deserted-factories-show-how-china-electric-car-boom-went-too-far?sref%3DjhllEgMq) that Chinese power plants will not be able to buy enough natural gas or coal for the winter. Electricity rationing threatened.
According to (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-coal-vdki-idUSKBN2FA16R) the Association of Coal Importers (VdKI), coal-fired power generation in Germany rose by 35.6 percent in the first half of the year compared to the previous year. The association cited cold weather and less wind as reasons.
A Dutch court in June a judgment like (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-04/what-a-dutch-court-ruling-means-for-shell-and-big-oil-quicktake) , after which the oil and gas company Royal Dutch / Shell violated the "human rights" because it contributes to "climate change". The company must reduce its "emissions" faster, so the court. In order to exacerbate Europe's energy and electricity price crisis, the Netherlands decided (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2018-05/niederlande-lieferant-erdgas-deutschland-preissteigerung?utm_referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252 Fstartpage.com%252F) in 2019 to end gas production by 2030. The Netherlands are Europe's largest gas producer and supply around a third of the natural gas consumed in Germany.
Three activists from the eco-hedge fund Engine No. 1 was chosen (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/exclusive-engine-no-1-investment-framework-aims-tie-company-valuations-climate-2021-09-13/) , although it only holds 0.02 percent of the shares. Engine No. 1 wants Exxon-Mobil to put climate change at the center of its business decisions.
In Australia, a court ruled (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/coal-giant-wins-mine-feud-with-86-year-old-nun-and-teenagers) in May that the government had to take into account its "obligation to children", who are "harmed" by "climate change", in the approval process for the expansion of a coal mine.
The European Court of Justice has ordered Poland to pay a fine of 500,000 euros for every day the Turow open-cast lignite mine continues to operate in the Polish-German-Czech border area. The license for the open pit was extended in 2020 "without the necessary environmental impact assessments". Polish energy providers are expected to have to raise electricity prices by 40 percent next year. Poland's government is planning (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-10/poland-wants-to-detail-eu-role-in-surging-electricity-prices) a law that will oblige suppliers to state on their electricity bills how much of the electricity price is caused by the EU's electricity policy.
In Greece, the government plans to lower electricity and gas prices for citizens through subsidies. “There is an international energy crisis,” said (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1167864/greece-offers-power-bill-subsidies-to-help-households-with-rising-energy-cost/) Energy Minister Kostas Skrekas. "Our government has decided to support those whose bills are increasing." Because Greece depends on transfer payments from the EU, this leads to the interesting situation that consumers in Germany are paying ever higher taxes for energy so that it becomes cheaper in Greece.

For the current energy crisis in Europe, one can refer to many individual events that exacerbate the situation. In some places, power plants are out of order for maintenance work, the power cable between France and England was damaged in (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-20/u-k-delays-french-power-cable-restart-as-energy-crisis-worsens) a fire and the Russian state-owned company Gazprom is supplying less natural gas in order to put pressure (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kommentare/kommentar-es-stimmt-doch-gazprom-ist-ein-erpresser/27512366.html?ticket%3DST-61354-kNrCowJqMOTc6oUvaAlt-ap2) on Germany to bring the Nord Stream 2 pipeline into operation more quickly. But these are all details. The big picture is that politics deliberately sabotaged the energy supply. Coal and nuclear power plants were shut down. Obtaining liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA has never been an issue for European politics. LNG is sold through long-term contracts and Europe has not signed any (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/9/20/europe-isn-t-buying-lng-despite-record-gas-demand-here-s-why)because it relies on Russia. That is why, when the wind is not blowing, the continent no longer only depends on Russia for heating (it has always been that way), but also for electricity generation.
In the absence of nuclear power plants, coal is the only guarantee of a secure electricity supply in Europe. But above all, a worldwide war is being waged against them. Corporations submit to the dictates of the ESG (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethisches_Investment) , in English: environment, social and corporate governance. ESG has little to do with "social", it essentially stands for the demonization of the energy sources coal, oil and gas. When mining companies publish their quarterly results, ESG is now a main topic. Anyone who does not collect enough ESG points will be punished. For example, many insurers refuse (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2020/12/17/594394.htm) to do business with corporations that have anything to do with steam coal or the extraction of oil from tar sands.
The big mining companies BHP, Rio Tinto and Anglo American are therefore withdrawing from coal production or have already done so. Joe Kraft, the chairman of the board of the American energy company Alliance Resource Partners, said at the presentation of the quarterly results in July that his company had to pay twice as high interest as comparable companies because of its coal production, namely currently nine percent. The distribution of the last investment certificate, with which investors could bet on a basket of coal stocks - the VanEck Vectors Coal ETF - was discontinued in December 2020. The financial service provider feared for its reputation.
On the other hand, China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Japan are planning (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/five-asian-countries-80-percent-new-coal-power-investment) to build 600 new coal-fired power plants. In China, a 1,800-kilometer railway line was inaugurated (https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&ajax=1&elem=1&u=http://german.xinhuanet.com/2019-09/29/c_138432364_7.htm) in 2019 , which cost around 25 billion euros and is only there to bring coal from Inner Mongolia to China's southern provinces.


Nevertheless, one can read again and again in the press and on the websites of green lobby associations that coal is being phased out. Because wind power and solar energy are "much cheaper", coal will no longer be needed or desired by anyone at some point.
Because I never understood how wind turbines and solar systems that only produce electricity sporadically can replace natural gas, coal and nuclear power, I asked the Federal Environment Ministry. A spokesman explains to me:
"For the acceptance of the energy transition and for Germany as a business location, security of supply must indeed be guaranteed, even in an electricity system with 100 percent renewable energies until around 2040. This can only succeed if the expansion of renewables is much more ambitious than this so far is the case. For almost a year now, the BMU has been calling for the expansion rate to be doubled by 2030 compared to the expansion path now set in the EEG 2021. After all, it is important to replace the electricity that is no longer available from nuclear and coal with solar and wind energy and not with gas-fired power plants. "
That means: If, as in the last few months, the wind doesn't blow enough, more wind turbines are needed. So when the wind as by Rüdiger Stobbe shown (https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/woher_kommt_der_strom_woche_36_natur_bleibt_unbere chenbar?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=ajax,elem) , has produced the electricity consumed in the last week temporarily only two percent, we need - how much more wind turbines? Fifty times as many as now?
It's going to be difficult. That is why the spokesman for the Federal Environment Ministry adds in his email:
“In addition, supply and demand must be better coordinated and the flexibility of demand and generation must be increased significantly. In addition, the German power grid and cross-border exchange capacities must be expanded and improved. This increased exchange with neighboring European countries not only increases the reliability of the electricity supply with renewable energies, but also strengthens the security of supply in all European countries and, since fewer reserve capacities need to be kept in total, it is also cost-effective. In addition, electricity storage facilities and gas-fired power plants will also be used - but in the long term, gas-fired power plants will only be used if they are operated with renewable gases or green hydrogen. "
Let's look forward to what the future has in store for us with its electricity storage systems and green hydrogen. The flexibility of demand already exists: If there is not enough electricity, industrial plants are switched off. In the future, this will also affect small customers. Better to buy a diesel generator now, with which you can then charge the battery of the electric car.
The war on oil, gas, and coal has many similarities to the war on drugs. In either case, it is difficult or impossible for the state to take action to reduce demand . What the war is against is the offer . The war on drugs does not mean that there is no cocaine or that it is not used, it just makes it expensive . This also applies to the EU's energy policy. By outlawing the energy sources coal and gas, it does not reduce their consumption, but only ensures that the price rises. So the only thing it achieves with it is to reduce the purchasing power of the population, to make people poorer than they would be without this policy.

[Skybird]

China, the biggest crypto currency market, bans Bitcoin & Co, declaring all crypto currency transactions illegal.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58678907


Trading crypto-currency has officially been banned in China since 2019, but has continued online through foreign exchanges.

However, there has been a significant crackdown this year.

In May, Chinese state intuitions warned buyers (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57169726) they would have no protection for continuing to trade Bitcoin and other currencies online, as government officials vowed to increase pressure on the industry.

In June, it told banks and payment platforms to stop facilitating transactions (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57549543) and issued bans on "mining" the currencies - the trade of using powerful computers to make new coins.

But Friday's announcement is the clearest indication yet that China wants to shut down crypto-currency trading in all its forms.

The statement makes clear that those who are involved in "illegal financial activities" are committing a crime and will be prosecuted.

And foreign websites providing such services to Chinese citizens online is also an illegal activity, it said.

As the wise men knew since long. Nations will not allow any means that could threaten their paper money ponzy schemes and the instrument to enforce them, central banks. Not precious metals. Not crypto currencies. No parallel paper currencies putting the lead currency into question.

[mapuc]

I live on a little island where we are 110 % self-sufficient.

We have three types of power who deliver electricity to us. Ca 6000 habitants.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I got this uneasy feeling a violent market correction is right around the corner.

Should be fun. Good luck.👍

[Rockstar]

Is The Fed Quietly Preparing For An Evergrande Tsunami?

https://www.rickackerman.com/2021/09/is-the-fed-quietly-preparing-for-an-evergrande-tsunami/

[… the world’s biggest financial institutions are in Evergrande muck up to their eyeballs, even if they claim that their exposure is small in relation to their respective assets. The trouble is, the supposed assets are as ethereal as Evergrande’s grotesquely inflated real estate holdings. In the guest commentary below, Shawn Brown, a San Francisco friend from the hedge fund world, raises the possibility that behind-the-scenes maneuvering by the Fed is attempting to shore up the financial system ahead of potentially massive Evergrande shock-waves that have yet to be felt. RA ]

[Rockstar]

How many heard our Vice President last August warn people to start buying Christmas presents now because of shortages. Anyone noticing your grocery store shelves having less yet? Heck at auto store I work at tools, parts, cleaners are just not being replenished.

I just noticed on the radio yesterday they are now starting to play Christmas music to put you in the mood to buy.

[Skybird]

Will this become a winter of truth?

If not this year, then next year or second next. The problems are cooking over.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://peymani.de/angst-vorm-blackout-der-elektromobilitaet-wird-zeitweise-der-strom-abgestellt/

[Otto Harkaman]

China's Communist Party orders a crackdown to "hide" a financial crisis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBkMe4TdHDQ

[Skybird]

Malice thy name is central banks.

Mind you, the eCB has a clear mandate. Fioghting inflation and by that protecting currency stability. Only this, not more. But it now does business cycle polcies (no mandate to do that), illegal state financing (forbidden by Eurpopean treaties), it claims to get engaged in climate poltiics (no mandate for that), and it prepares the further wekaneing of freedom and private proerty by enforcing digiutal currency whicb i see as the by far biggets threat to our all freedom, wealth and wellbeing becasue it enables the state to tyrannise, persecute, suppress and gag unwanted opinion and their speakers unhindered. Is dictatorship what gets rolled out here by the EeU and ECB and the ecofascists and the left. They now paint a treasure map where people ahve to mark with little corsses where their belonging sare hidden and can be plundered. You cannot protect yourself against that because these thigns are of no value to you if the state prohibits everybody to accept these as bartering/trading objects or payment. And he can enforce that prohibition if the currency system is purely digital.

Only fools shrug their shoulders on this and say they do not care because they have little themselves.

The Ggerman L.V.Mises Institute writes this:

------------

The central banks create and manipulate the fiat currencies. This fact is well known and represents a great danger (already highlighted in various ways on the Mises platform) for investors, consumers and entrepreneurs. Negative interest rates and inflation as well as all associated undesirable developments make this destructive work of the central banks obvious.

Now one could assume that this would be the only - if hardly to be underestimated - risk that emanates from the central banks. But unfortunately this is not the case. The former President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi described the ECB's “liquidity offensive” in 2012 as “Big Bertha”, using the metaphor of a cannon that was developed to combat fortifications. And as if this “Big Bertha” hadn't been enough to put investors, consumers and entrepreneurs in trouble, the central banks are working - sometimes more and sometimes less obviously - on further financial policy “bombardment”, which one can use to refer to the word “offensive” ”And“ guns ”- could speak of a monetary“ Stalin organ ”, that is, a multiple rocket launcher that causes damage over a large area.

The monetary policy "missiles" are already on their way and it is unlikely that it will be possible to stop these fiscal policy "explosive devices" and the "impact" and the associated economic destruction. Nonetheless, it makes sense to look at the additional economic destruction potential of central banks in the hope that the worst can be avoided or "covered up".
The end of cash

On the one hand, not all money is the same. Fiat money influenced by central banks is not identical to money that has proven itself over the millennia (e.g. gold) or money that is created in competition between different private providers.

On the other hand, it also makes a difference with fiat money whether it is available in coins and notes or exclusively digitally. The fact that people are (still) sensitive here is shown by the choice of the headline for an interview on the digital euro on the website of the Bundesbank, which is integrated into the ECB's system: “Cash is freedom, and we don't give it up”.

In fact, as the public consultation document shows, preparations for the introduction of a digital euro are well advanced. It can be doubted that a digital euro would not mean the end of cash, as was heard in a speech by a member of the ECB Executive Board.

Restrictions on the use of cash, e.g. when buying gold, are already "familiar". The future proof of origin for cash transactions of 10,000 euros or more is also sensitive. But money is only becoming digital, not only transparent citizens are possible, but also barely imaginable restrictions on personal freedom. For example, a meat consumption budget could be specified. If this were exceeded when shopping (e.g. buying a few slices of cooked ham), the transaction would not be possible.

Political do's and don'ts of any kind can be easily implemented with exclusively digital money. The citizen could not prevent a monthly meltdown of savings, just as little as the restriction of the availability of money to only those goods and services that are politically wanted or specified.

It would also be possible to break political resistance. Uncomfortable contemporaries could easily turn off the money tap. The work of the ECB on the digital euro is therefore a danger that in its “explosive power” probably goes beyond the fiat money consequences.
Green Deal

The European Green Deal is also leaving its mark on the ECB. This can be read on their website (translation in the footnotes):

Climate change can affect price stability through extreme weather events and uncertainties related to the transition to a low-carbon economy. We at the ECB are committed to taking the impact of climate change into consideration in our monetary policy framework.

In this context, a link was also made with the Corona reconstruction fund.

With this self-authorization, the ECB is also expanding its mandate to include environmental issues. The ECB Action Plan addresses the issue in a number of ways. The targeted purchase of “green corporate bonds” inevitably leads to distortions of competition, market neutrality looks different. For the investor, this “political subsidization” changes the assessment of opportunities and risks in various markets.

But such central bank interventions also have consequences for consumers and entrepreneurs. This form of subsidizing certain industries and products leads to (indirectly disadvantaged) providers and their products disappearing. The entrepreneurs have little chance of asserting themselves against the power of the central banks. The consumer is confronted with less choice of products and providers, which opens up price leeway for them.

How far such effects go and deeply affect personal decisions is made clear by a thought experiment: The Green Deal, flanked by the central banks, has swept large cattle breeders out of the market (because of the climate effects). Artificial meat producers as an (allegedly) better alternative have benefited and are now dominating the market with products whose long-term effects on health are still unknown.

Whether this example is a large or a rather small financial policy “bomb” is left to the individual assessment. It should be remembered, however, that this is only one example of many effects that are actually possible and occurring when the central banks act in addition to other political interventions in connection with the Green Deal. This combined effect increases the "explosive power".

[Skybird]

I admit I am no longer jjust worried in an abstract kind of menaing, or concerned, or engage din debate. I have started to feel really afraid and personally threatened due to latest exhcnages I had with a bank over the latest changes in legislation that the ECB has comanded (!) Germany to carry out and which mean real threatening problems for me and my completely legal financial behaviour.


It is clar before all our eyes: they build a dictatorship around us, with digital walls and fiscal whips, they enforce compliance with their convictions terror, and they make us al ever more helpfless and defenceless.

Compare: https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2771291&postcount=1
I am deeply, deeply worried, and yes, I have started to feel personally threatend, and being afraid. Very. Thats not just talking.

Its pure malice at work around us. Malice in disguise, but still: malice. Already today we are not as free anymore than we were five years ago. ten years, 20 years, at our youth. We did not notice maybe how it was taken from us, because of the long timeframe, but now that they have laid and solidified the fundaments, they are speeding up their charge against our freedom and our wealth. Its scaring.

[Catfish]

^ just read Kling's "QualityLand" :03:

[Skybird]

I live on a little island where we are 110 % self-sufficient.

We have three types of power who deliver electricity to us. Ca 6000 habitants.

Markus
If you ever hear news about a continental blackout looming, grab an axe, and cut that powerline from your island to the onshore. And make sure your tanks with diesel or gasoline or whatever you use to run your generators always are filled up .

[Skybird]

The workers who keep global supply chains moving are warning of a 'system collapse'.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/29/business/supply-chain-workers/index.html

[Skybird]

It is the fifth biggest slump in post-war history: The automotive industry, still Germany's industrial key sector, is expecting 18 percent fewer new cars than last year. It thus falls back to the state of 1975.

[3catcircus]

It's *all* coming to a head. All of the terrible decisions made by "the smartest guys in the room" to benefit themselves and their buddies; all of the unnatural acts that the average blue collar worker could see was a bad economic decision, all of the "nobody has tried socialism the right way" stupidity - everything over the past 75 years is going to come to fruition.

As China's bad debt unfolds, so too will every other corrupt government tied to them. The saber-rattling in Taiwan is a distraction from Evergrande and the revelation that COVID has been in the wild since early 2019 (if not earlier than that) based upon a huge order by China for pcr tests in May 2019.

And it isn't like this is caused by one big bad decision.
It's death by 1000 cuts. Coming off the gold standard. Allowing banking and wall street to get mixed up in real estate. Trade treaties that benefit no one except their architects. Pandora Papers. Solyndra. And the list goes on...

[mapuc]

If I understand the economical news from China.
It is not only Evergrande who is behind they payment, other real estate business in China are in economical problems.

Markus

[Arlo]

... all of the "nobody has tried socialism the right way" stupidity ...

Actually, several nations have (even the U.S. a mere eighty years back). :shucks:

[Skybird]

Stefan Frank writes for AdG:


The energy crisis eats its way into the economy

Europe's energy crisis is drawing wider circles. On October 13th, Nyrstar, Europe's largest producer of fine zinc, announced that it would reduce production in its three European smelters by up to 50 percent in view of rising energy prices. "Significant increases in electricity prices in recent weeks and the cost burden of CO2 emissions in the electricity sector, which are passed on to industrial and household customers, make full utilization of the system no longer economically feasible," says a press release. Nyrstar explains that this is not because the company has shown too little ambition to reduce CO2 emissions:

"Nyrstar plants are fully electrified and the operations in the Netherlands and Belgium use electricity that is mostly generated from renewable energy sources, which means that they operate with very little or no CO2 emissions."

At the Nyrstar locations there are "also wind turbines and solar panels". Obviously, that was of little use. One day later, the global raw materials company and trader Glencore also cut zinc production in three of its European locations. Glencore justified the move with the sharp rise in electricity prices.

After the two announcements, the price of zinc on the commodity exchanges rose by more than 25 percent to a 14-year high. The Bloomberg news agency wrote of a "panic" in a market that had been "caught on the wrong foot". “China's electricity-related zinc supply problems were factored in. It wasn't Europe. "

The Economic Association Metals (WVMetalle) called on the European Commission to take "effective measures for energy-intensive industries":

"The currently high energy prices are a massive problem for the energy-intensive industry and also affect companies in the non-ferrous metal industry to a large extent."

The non-ferrous metal industry is in a "particularly precarious situation". “Energy prices and raw material supply bottlenecks, such as with magnesium, have the industry firmly in a stranglehold. Both of these have a significant impact on the raw materials market, ”says WVMetalle's managing director Franziska Erdle.

The wind power and solar industries are also affected

Eurometaux, the European association of the metal industry, warns in a letter to the EU commissioner for energy, Kadri Simson, that companies could move out of the EU due to the high electricity prices. The association also fears that "if electricity remains too expensive, it will weaken industrial electrification as a way of decarbonization and undermine the goals of the EU's Green Deal". Non-ferrous metals such as aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc and silicon are "at the front of the industries that are affected by the high electricity prices in Europe" because their production is more electricity-intensive than that of any other material, according to the association.

The recent price hikes for aluminum, copper and zinc are of a very different kind than those that were known from the past. Rising raw material prices are usually a sign of increasing demand in a robust economy. Raw material companies then react to this by increasing production. Then prices usually go down again, because the best remedy for high prices is high prices. Currently, however, the prices of copper wire or zinc bars are rising because the manufacturers can no longer operate the smelter profitably due to the high electricity prices. The price increases in mid-October were therefore not a symptom of rising demand, but a shrinking supply. Less is produced, and society as a whole becomes poorer as a result.

The industrial buyers of the metals are the first to notice this - but certainly not the last, because they will pass on rising prices to their customers. Ironically, this also affects the wind power and solar industries: Zinc, for example, is a protection against corrosion in wind power plants. The manufacturers of solar systems complain that modules are currently "expensive and hardly available" because the manufacturers, who usually come from China, are badly affected by the energy crisis. Industrial silicon, aluminum and soda - an important material for solar glass - have meanwhile "reached the highest price level in the past ten years", say industry circles.

The beginning of a food crisis?

Agriculture is also a very energy-intensive industry. Yara, one of the world's largest fertilizer manufacturers, has cut its production in Europe by 40 percent because of the high natural gas prices. Natural gas is the starting product in the manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers. Hydrogen is extracted from it, which then reacts with nitrogen from the air to form ammonia (Haber-Bosch process). At present, Yara can still import enough ammonia from its sites on other continents to Europe to keep fertilizer production going. But that cannot go on forever, warns CEO Svein Tore Holsether - in the end there may be hunger:

“It's important to get the message across that the current energy crisis could be the beginning of a food crisis. We must pay special attention to all those affected by higher utility and food prices, but for some it is a matter of survival. This is about scenarios of famine and food shortages. "

All over the world, farmers have to pay “significantly” higher prices for the nutrients they need because the production of fertilizers has become more expensive, according to Holsether. "That has immediate effects."

EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski confirms this: “Of course” there is a risk that rising energy prices will have an impact on food prices. According to Politico, the agriculture ministers of the 27 EU countries discussed a paper in early October in which the Polish government warns of “social unrest” as a result of rising natural gas prices.

Jais Valeur, the CEO of Danish Crown, the largest meat processing company in Europe, expects that the EU's climate policy will make beef a “luxury product like champagne” as it will never be “super climate friendly”. "It will be a luxury product that we treat ourselves to when we want to do something good for ourselves."


Von der Leyen: "Only dirty energies are more expensive"

Marie-Antoinette is credited with a statement that is supposed to show how removed she was from reality and the worries of the people: "If you have no bread, you should eat cake." She probably never said that. However, it is historically proven that Uschi von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, recently said that if natural gas becomes more and more expensive, wind and sun should be used instead:

"Energy prices are rising because the dirty energies coal, oil and gas in particular are becoming more expensive, while renewable energies, the clean ones, the good ones, have remained stable in prices and prices have fallen in recent years."

Von der Leyen intends to make her interpretation of the energy market the basis of EU policy. In an address given in English, she said that “renewables are the solution to rising electricity prices”. While “wholesale gas prices” “almost doubled compared to a year ago”, “the prices of renewable energies have remained constant. They have even fallen in recent years. ”That is why the“ European Green Deal ”is the solution:

“Every euro spent on renewables helps our planet and consumers alike. But it is also an investment in the resilience of our economies. That is why we have to accelerate our work on the European Green Deal in order to become more energy-independent. "

It is like a king who has ordered that tulips should be grown predominantly on the agricultural land of the kingdom. When the people then go hungry because there is a lack of grain, the king turns to the subjects and says: “The prices of grain have almost doubled compared to a year ago, while the prices of tulips keep falling. That is why we have to grow more tulips in order to become more independent of grain. ”Von Leyen's obsession with the idea that“ renewables ”should be expanded will do nothing but exacerbate the crisis. After all: In a tweet from October 22nd, Ursula von der Leyen wrote: "We also need a stable source, nuclear energy."

Perhaps the insight matures after all? In the UK, the government has announced the construction of new nuclear power plants in response to the energy crisis.

Coal is Germany's most important energy source

Governments in many countries around the world have underestimated the importance of reliable energy sources. Many have overestimated the ability of wind power and photovoltaics to deliver the electricity the world needs.

An example: Although it was beautifully sunny in Germany at 1 p.m. on October 18 and a lot of solar power was being produced, conventional power plants supplied two thirds of the electricity. The wind was largely out, once again the energetic energies could not be relied upon. This is not an outlier. As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), electricity generation from conventional energy increased by 20.9 percent in the first half of 2021 compared to the same period in the previous year and accounted for 56.0 percent of total electricity generation.

“Due to the lack of wind in spring, the most important energy source was coal, after wind power had been the most important energy source in the first half of 2020. ... With an increase of 35.5%, the electricity from coal-fired power plants recorded the highest increase compared to the same period of the previous year. Coal thus made up 27.1% of the total amount of electricity fed into the grid. In contrast, the feed-in from renewable energies fell by 11.7%. In particular, the electricity feed-in from wind power, with a decline of 21.0%, was significantly lower than in the first half of 2020. As a result, the share of the total amount of electricity fed in fell from 29.1% to 22.1%. "

It takes revenge that, with the elimination of nuclear energy, Germany no longer has a balanced electricity mix to spread supply and price risks. An increase in the price of natural gas now leads directly to an increase in the price of electricity. In addition, high electricity consumption in summer (when the air conditioning is hot) leads to insufficiently filled gas stores before the heating season in autumn and winter.

China: superpower in wind power and solar energy

The People's Republic of China has a different kind of command economy than in the EU. At the end of September, the government ordered the country's electricity companies to buy enough coal "at any price" to avoid blackouts. When the coal futures on the Zhengzhou futures exchange constantly climbed to new highs, they intervened again and announced in mid-October that they wanted to take action against “speculators” and bring prices back to a “reasonable level”. In response, coal companies have publicly vowed to cut their prices. The prices on the futures exchange dropped by over 30 percent in four days - but will that mean there will be more coal? The experience of 4,000 years of state price controls speak against it. Price caps - whether for wheat, rent or coal - always lead to a shortage of supply. However, at the same time, China's state economic control agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, ordered that disused mines be restarted. Now there is a race against winter.

The People's Republic of China is the world's largest manufacturer of photovoltaic and wind power systems and the largest producer of the electricity obtained from them. From an August 2020 report in the journal Nature:

“China is the world's most capable producer of wind energy, with a capacity more than twice that of the second largest generator, the United States. It also has around a third of the world's solar capacity and installed more systems last year than any other country. "

According to the National Energy Agency, “10.8 ​​gigawatts of new wind power capacity” was added in China in the first half of 2021 (the reader can decide for himself how trustworthy data come from communists is). The Olympic Winter Games, which will take place in Beijing and Zhangjiakou from February 4th to 20th, 2022, have been declared a "green game" by the Chinese government. All sports facilities are to be operated with "green" energy. Local public transport in both cities should be 85 percent electric, with natural gas, with fuel cells or with hybrid drives. The People's Republic of China has also embarked on the path of “renewables”. “But, woe, woe, woe! When I look to the end “: Toyota, Apple, companies in the textile industry and also the manufacturers of cardboard boxes warn of delivery problems due to the Chinese energy crisis. Do similar strategies in Europe and China lead to similar consequences in the end?

Resistance from Africa

Meanwhile, resistance to climate colonialism is growing on the African continent. "Africa cannot sacrifice its future prosperity for the sake of Western climate goals," writes Uganda's President Yoweri K. Museveni in a guest article for the Wall Street Journal. "The continent should balance its energy mix, not rush straight towards renewables - even if that will probably frustrate some of those who meet next week at the climate conference in Glasgow."

South Africa's energy minister Gwede Mantashe also warns of a “hurry to use renewable energy sources” at the expense of coal. This could have "harmful consequences", as the power outages in China, India and Great Britain showed.

“If we swing from one extreme to the other like a pendulum, we will find ourselves in the same position. We have to have a clear program. We have to manage the transition carefully, in an organized way. "

As reported by the Bloomberg news agency, Mantashe decided not to take part in a meeting with the US, EU, UK, France and Germany climate emissaries at the end of September (but in which the South African Environment Minister took part) and instead gave the closing speech at the Limpopo Conference for mining investments. In his speech, Mantashe demanded that South Africa's mining industry should become more attractive for foreign investment and also cited the Mpumalanga coal region as an example. In Mpumalanga a not inconsiderable part of the coal is mined, which ensures that billions of people in countries like China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh do not go out of light.

Around a billion people worldwide - most of them in Africa - have no electricity whatsoever. They sit in the dark at night or light up their huts with unhealthy and dangerous open fires, which can lead to chronic respiratory diseases, eye infections and severe burns. Meanwhile, the German climate protection activist Luisa Neubauer suggests that everyone should produce their own electricity. In an interview with a solar lobbyist, Neubauer said it was about

"That things are taken into their own hands, that you get started, that you use cooperative resources, that you generate your own energy, that you start with village communities and communities and solidarity communities to generate energy yourself, to initiate the climate change."

This “climate change” will be one “that enriches, strengthens people and societies, that not only protects the climate, but also brings with it a kind of prosperity or well-being.”

For Germany, she demands: "This legislative period has to be the most climate-friendly of all time, we don't know what a 1.5-degree government looks like, we will have to invent it, we will have to demand that for anything in the world."

So a 1.5 degree government wants to invent it so that we then have some kind of prosperity or prosperity. Aha. Why can't someone like Mr. Mantashe be Energy Minister in Germany or EU Commission President? That would be better than if people dominate the discourse who don't produce anything other than CO2 when they talk.



https://www.achgut.com/artikel/die_energiekrise_frisst_sich_in_die_wirtschaft

[mapuc]

More and more people here in Denmark are getting positive towards Nuclear power.

Markus

[Skybird]

Heartless cold reality tramples brutally on ideological opportunism.


Another Merkelian maximum-effect desaster: first destroying German nuclear power and engineering competence, rated to be amongst the globe's leading quality and security producers, and now u-turning again and having left germany depending on French nuclear power imports. Maximim losses for Germany, high profits for France, a shifting of the balance of power as well. Skrupelloses dummes Weibsstück.



Die Welt writes on Germany's apparent U-turn on nuclear power:


The subject was not on the agenda, but the advocates of nuclear power did not allow themselves to be dissuaded. At the emergency summit of the EU energy ministers, a show event at which the high energy prices should be publicized, the camp of the pro-nuclear countries spoke up anyway.

"Many delegations" have demanded that Brussels take a quick position on nuclear power, said the Slovenian Minister of Infrastructure Jernej Vrtovec on Tuesday afternoon after the meeting.

It is about a dispute that has been dividing the EU for months: is nuclear power a sustainable option in the fight against climate change? For the nuclear industry - above all the French - this determination determines the economic future. And for many countries it is about the energy mix for the coming decades.

The decision is part of the so-called taxonomy, a kind of green bible that is supposed to determine which investments are climate-friendly. In the years to come, the determination will have a major impact on where billions of investor money and EU funding will go - and where not.

And it will depend on how easily companies and states can finance new nuclear power plants, repositories and the infrastructure related to nuclear power.

No wonder that France has been vehemently advocating nuclear power in Brussels for years. Not only does the country's power supply depend largely on nuclear fission; the state also holds more than 80 percent of the highly indebted nuclear power plant operator EDF.

And the government wants to continue expanding nuclear power. According to the French government, President Emmanuel Macron wants to present concrete plans for new nuclear power plants in the next few weeks. Up to six new pressurized water reactors are planned.

Many billions are involved: EDF has been building such a reactor at the Flamanville site in Normandy since 2007; the costs on the breakdown site have meanwhile increased almost sixfold to a good 19 billion euros.

So far, other EU countries have resolutely rejected nuclear power; Alongside Austria and Luxembourg, where Europe's most resolute nuclear power opponents are based, Germany was also one of the most committed opponents at the EU level.
advertisement

But probably not anymore. Chancellor Angela Merkel apparently gave in at the summit of heads of state and government last Thursday and Friday.

This is how observers interpret at least an announcement by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, at the press conference after the summit. The politician announced there and in a Twitter message that she would submit a proposal for the EU sustainability label, which also includes nuclear power and gas.

"We also need a stable source, nuclear energy, and of course, in transition, natural gas," she said. "That is why we will present our proposal for the taxonomy."

This decision came as a surprise to observers, as Financial Markets Commissioner Mairead McGuinness had only said last week that the authority might take time to make the far-reaching decision by next year.

Apparently Merkel and Macron made a deal at the summit. The commission has always made it very clear that the authority will only make a determination for the taxonomy if Germany and France are in agreement on the issue, French government circles told WELT. It was apparently so far at Merkel's farewell summit.
New members in the pro nuclear power camp

In fact, Germany was largely sidelined in the dispute. At the beginning of the debate, two years ago, the camps between supporters and opponents of nuclear power were still balanced. However, the new, stricter EU climate targets and the sharp increases in energy prices in recent months have evidently led some countries to rethink. The nuclear proponents are now in the majority.

At the European level, France was able to poke around a number of states that also rely on nuclear power for climate protection. Finland is part of the fact that France is currently building an EPR reactor, as well as Bulgaria, Poland, Croatia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic.

Ministers from these countries had published a pro-nuclear appeal in WELT. Recently, Sweden and the Netherlands, where new nuclear power plants are being considered, have apparently also switched to the pro-nuclear camp.

The high energy prices and the dependence of many countries on natural gas also apparently contributed to this. In Germany, too, natural gas is seen as an important energy supplier in the transition to climate-neutral energy sources. But France had always threatened to veto if the Commission declared natural gas to be sustainable, but not nuclear power.

Von der Leyen's declaration makes it clear what Germany and France have agreed on: nuclear power will be considered sustainable for many decades, natural gas at least for the coming years of transition. Austria and Luxembourg were extremely angry after von der Leyen's statement, it is said in Brussels.

Nuclear opponents reacted disappointed. "Merkel has given up her resistance to the greenwashing of nuclear power, I don't know why," says Sven Giegold, an influential member of the Greens in the European Parliament. “With this she gave von der Leyen the green light. If von der Leyen now says that she will include atomic energy and gas in the taxonomy, the member states can no longer prevent her from doing so. "

In fact, the change is recorded in a so-called delegated act. The Member States can only object to this with a qualified majority; In this case, however, it hardly appears to be achievable. Giegold started a petition in response. The central demand: "The EU proposal must not be submitted before the new federal government is in office."

[Rockstar]

Buckle up everyone we gonna crash


Press Release

PDF
November 03, 2021

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20211103a.htm

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the summer's rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued November 3, 2021

Last Update: November 03, 2021

[Skybird]

Finanz und Wirtschaft comments today:

-----------------
France has no coal, no gas, no oil - so no choice: That may be, in short, the Cartesian logic behind Emmanuel Macron's announcement that France will build new nuclear power plants. In any case, it is a clever move with a view to the presidential election in five months' time. Macron has not yet officially announced his candidacy, but there is no doubt that he is aiming for a second term and that he has a good chance of being re-elected.

His current move signals to the people that security of supply is a top priority and that it will be tackled; at the same time, Macron shows where he sees the ideal route to decarbonisation. This «Paris Gambit», to stay in chess jargon, is Gaullism pure et major, and this alone proves that Macron is up to date like hardly any other statesman in Europe (at best Boris Johnson, who admittedly also relies on nuclear power; do not be fooled by his flaunted frivolity).

In his declaration on the energy strategy, Macron said in no uncertain terms that independence and sovereignty were at stake: France definitely does not want to take the risk of being vitally dependent on imports of electricity. This is exactly in line with the nuclear policy that Charles de Gaulle initiated in liberated France as early as 1945 - the thunder of the Second World War, especially the two explosions over Hiroshima and Nagasaki - still echoed. After that, research was carried out in the nuclear sector, largely with a view to civilian use, but not much was done in the Fourth Republic in terms of industry or even more militarily.

After his long “traversée du desert”, the twelve years away from power, de Gaulle returned in 1958 and established the Fifth Republic, which was focused on the president, to suit his taste. It immediately revived France's hitherto half-hearted nuclear policy, primarily with a view to military use: the Soviets tested their first nuclear missile in 1949, and the British in 1952. France stood there naked, so to speak, depending in an emergency on the benevolence of the unloved Anglo-Saxons.

De Gaulle's political guiding star was gone from the start, when he decided in 1940 for the resistance in exile in London instead of the collaboration in Vichy, until the end of France's independence and honor; As old-fashioned as it may sound today, it was so successful. Thanks to de Gaulle's determination, France, the loser of the war, miraculously made it to the table of victorious powers and as a veto power in the United Nations Security Council.

In order to show the weight necessary to maintain this status, from the point of view of the general, and objectively plausible, it was essential to arm France with nuclear weapons. National security and independence, influence as a great power and international respect - these big goals needed the little atoms.

After all, France had a long tradition in nuclear research: Henri Becquerel and the Curie family - Marie and Pierre Curie, their daughter Irène Joliot-Curie and her husband Frédéric Joliot-Curie - were all Nobel Prize winners in physics and chemistry, respectively. Before the outbreak of World War II, France had also begun to clarify the military potential of nuclear fission. The French explorers were active in Montreal during the war; the Americans did not allow them to participate in the Manhattan project in Los Alamos.

At that time, de Gaulle's directives were quickly put into practice. The first test was carried out in the Algerian desert at the beginning of 1960. «Hourra pour la France! Depuis ce matin, elle est plus forte et plus fière », de Gaulle congratulated his Defense Minister Pierre Messmer. During the Cold War, which threatened to get hot in those years, at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, France now had a "force de dissuasion" at its disposal, frightening enough to deter the Soviet leadership from gambling games in Western Europe. From 1959 de Gaulle withdrew France's troops step by step from the military command structure of NATO. The republic no longer relied on the American nuclear umbrella; it had its own.

There was also progress in the civilian sector; In 1963, the first French nuclear power plant fed electricity into the grid. Today France operates 56 reactors at 18 locations. The last kiln so far went online in 1999; The Flamanville nuclear power plant has been under construction since 2007, which is obviously not making any headway and is becoming more and more expensive (quasi a Berlin Airport 2.0 on the Norman coast). France's electricity consumption has long been geared towards nuclear power from head to toe: 70% of the electricity comes from nuclear generation.

Replacing these enormous capacities - only the USA and China have larger ones - with wind and solar energy alone is more science fiction than science. In Switzerland, by the way, the share of nuclear power is still around a third. Furthermore, it should not be forgotten that after the Kaiseraugst project was abandoned in 1988, the Swiss energy companies bought substantial subscription rights from Électricité de France. One bon mot is right: Kaiseraugst was built in France.

Macron's reactor renaissance ultimately follows de Gaulle's highest maxim of securing national freedom of action, updated with a European perspective, but the Élysée will always reserve the last word. States don't have friends, they have interests - this frosty formula of the legendary “grand Charles” still applies in Paris, only garnished with an “inclusive” (isn't that what they say today?) EU commitment.

When and where and with what output the new series of nuclear power plants will go online is still open, but if the project works to some extent, the country will probably cope with the foreseeable electricity shortage in Europe better than, namely, Germany, by far its most important neighbor . The Merkel government, which is now gradually dwindling, hastily announced its exit in 2011 after the reactor accident in Fukushima. The dubious German turn away from nuclear production, stupidly just at the same time as the actually correct exit from coal-fired power generation, followed, as the only other country, Switzerland (Belgium fluctuates). Where else Bern acts more soberly than Berlin.

It will not be necessary to explain to Emmanuel Macron that an electricity croesus France will win over an electricity beggar Germany at Postur. From the point of view of Switzerland, where word got around now, very late, that electricity is becoming increasingly scarce, under these circumstances it might be worth considering buying the French Rafale fighter plane instead of an American jet; why not a diplomatic bargain with an electricity clause? Of course, it would be even more reassuring to expand our own generation, massively, and without blinkers when it comes to nuclear power.
-------------------
https://www.fuw.ch/article/macrons-reaktor-renaissance-ganz-in-de-gaulles-geist/

[Skybird]

Rainer Zitelmann, author of "Die 10 Irrtümer der Antikapitalisten", writes for NZZ:

Yesterday I had an interview of several hours with a journalist from a large daily newspaper about my book "The 10 errors of the anti-capitalists", which will be published soon. His first question was whether I might not be fighting the battles of past decades, since by now it was clear to almost everyone that capitalism was superior to the planned economy.

I thought that the topic was more topical today than ever before and was confirmed today when I read that the EU Commission under Ursula von der Leyen is now coming up with the next idea after the "taxonomy" debate on sustainability. If the first part was about distinguishing between sustainable and non-sustainable forms of energy production, now it is about distinguishing between socially useful and socially useless companies.

The Brussels classifications are then supposed to steer investors' money in the "right" direction. This means that if politicians and civil servants feel that a company is not paying all its employees the "right" wage, it can be classified as anti-social. If politicians feel that the board's salary is too high compared to the average employee, that is another indication of antisocial behavior. If politicians and civil servants believe that the rents charged by a real estate company should be lower, again there is a risk that the company will be classified as antisocial.

Dr. Rainer Zitelmann holds a doctorate in history and sociology. He has written and edited 25 books, including "Capitalism is not the problem, but the solution" and his new book: "The 10 errors of the anti-capitalists". As an entrepreneur he built up a fortune of millions. He is a member of the FDP.
The benefit of a company for society as a whole is to be evaluated, i.e. whether the company serves the so-called common good or not. In the case of some companies (e.g., cigarette manufacturers), this is denied from the outset; in the case of other companies, classification systems are created and the question of whether they are useful or not is not decided on the market, but in political discussion groups. The Greens and the SPD have already expressed their enthusiasm for this idea.

I think lobbyists will also be enthusiastic, because they now have a whole new field of activity: they have to convince politicians why their company is "socially useful" after all.

Of course, none of this has anything to do with a market economy. It is typical of systems with a state-planned economy that politicians determine how money is distributed in an economy, what should and should not be produced - and in what quantity it should be produced. In a market economy, companies decide - and whether a company is useful or not is determined every day by consumers with their decisions.

Therefore, there is nothing more democratic than capitalism. For a long time, the Albrecht brothers were the richest Germans in Germany. Why? Because they had a good idea with the Aldi discounters, namely how to offer good quality products at a low price. Millions and millions of customers have made the company big and its founders rich with their purchasing decisions.

Biontech was financed by private investors to the tune of more than one billion euros - and they had to endure twelve years of losses, during which they accumulated more than 400 million euros in losses. Government grants initially played little role compared to the more than one billion in funding - the government saw research funding for mRNA research as too risky.

Only when the mRNA technology was mature and it was a matter of setting everything in motion so that the vaccines could be produced in sufficient quantities did government funds of 375 million euros flow.

What does this have to do with the topic? Friedrich's August von Hayek, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics, described the "presumption of knowledge" as the central error of all socialists. State planned economies have failed time and again because they were based on the conviction that politicians and civil servants know better what is good for people than companies and consumers.

The planned economy is celebrating its resurrection in Brussels. What is "socially beneficial" and what is "socially harmful" is again determined by politicians, not by the despised market. There have been at least 24 socialist experiments in the last 100 years - but all of them, without any exception, have failed. But with the distance from failed socialism, the thinking that guided all these experiments is celebrating a resurgence. Today it is no longer called "socialism", but e.g. "fleet targets" (politicians in Brussels determine which cars should be produced) - or "social taxonomy".

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)


He who thinks the DDR (GDR) is dead and over, is wrong. It lives and is more prosper than ever.

[Skybird]

https://www.ortneronline.at/die-inflation-gekommen-um-zu-bleiben/


Inflation, come to stay

(ANDREAS TÖGEL ) By now, it is not only consumers who have noticed that they are currently confronted with strong price inflation affecting all essential expenditures. Mainstream economists are also coming to the realization that inflation of 5.1 percent is a veritable problem (as reported by "Exxpress"). What is surprising, at best, is that it has taken so long for Ms. Reinhardt and her colleagues - unlike the representatives of the "Austrian School" who have been criticizing the reckless monetary policy for years - to smell a rat.

What is original about Carmen Reinhardt's criticism of central banks' policies is the accusation that they did not "react" to inflation in time. How were they supposed to "react"? After all, by unrestrainedly inflating the money supply, they were and are the originators of inflation. If they had not given in to the demands of politicians for years to constantly pump new liquidity into the system, the problem would never have arisen. For it is not greedy entrepreneurs, as left-wing Senator Elisabeth Warren of Massachusetts claims, or adverse natural events that are to blame for inflation, but monopolistic money producers who issue legal tender in any quantity desired by governments. For decades, the money supply worldwide has been growing much faster than the production of goods.

The father of the "economic miracle" in post-war Germany, Economics Minister Ludwig Erhard, had this to say about it: "Inflation does not come upon us as a curse or as a tragic fate; it is always caused by reckless or even criminal policies."

Senator Warren contends that corporations cause inflation because they raise their prices as they see fit to increase their profits. Rarely has a claim been made that is clouded by so little economic understanding. For even leaving aside the fact that competition never sleeps, even the largest multinational corporations would, in the event of arbitrary price increases and all other things being equal (i.e., with an unchanged money supply), be left sitting on large parts of their production, because they would then lack the money to purchase them. Even Koko the gorilla would have understood that Mrs. Warren is attacking the wrong addressees.

Debtors whose liabilities are devalued are the beneficiaries of inflationary monetary policy. Who are the biggest debtors? Not companies or private households, but governments. And who determines - directly or indirectly - the monetary policy course of the central banks? In the case of the USA, England, China or Japan, the respective government. In the case of the EU, the Commission and the EU Parliament. This is proof in the sense of Ludwig Erhard: Politics has a hand in the cradle of inflation.

Two quotes from the former head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, put it in a nutshell: "The United States can pay off all its debts because it can always print money to do so. So there is no likelihood of nonpayment." The alchemists' dream has thus come true: the central banks may not create gold, but at least they create money out of nothing. From the time before Greenspan headed the FED comes the following wisdom: "Without the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from inflationary withdrawal. There is no safe store of value."

Meanwhile, it is not only consumers who have noticed that they are currently facing powerful price inflation affecting all essential expenditures. Mainstream economists are also coming to the realization that inflation of 5.1 percent is a veritable problem (Exxpress reported). What is surprising, at best, is that it has taken so long for Ms. Reinhardt and her colleagues - unlike the representatives of the "Austrian School" who have been criticizing the reckless monetary policy for years - to smell a rat.

What is original about Carmen Reinhardt's criticism of central banks' policies is the accusation that they did not "react" to inflation in time. How were they supposed to "react"? After all, by unrestrainedly inflating the money supply, they were and are the originators of inflation. If they had not given in to the demands of politicians for years to constantly pump new liquidity into the system, the problem would never have arisen. For it is not greedy entrepreneurs, as left-wing Senator Elisabeth Warren of Massachusetts claims, or adverse natural events that are to blame for inflation, but monopolistic money producers who issue legal tender in any quantity desired by governments. For decades, the world's money supply has been growing much faster than goods production.


The father of the "economic miracle" in postwar Germany, Economics Minister Ludwig Erhard, had this to say about it: "Inflation does not come upon us as a curse or a tragic fate; it is always caused by reckless or even criminal policies."

Senator Warren contends that corporations cause inflation because they raise their prices as they see fit to increase their profits. Rarely has a claim been made that is clouded by so little economic understanding. For even leaving aside the fact that competition never sleeps, even the largest multinational corporations would, in the event of arbitrary price increases and all other things being equal (i.e., with an unchanged money supply), be left sitting on large parts of their production, because they would then lack the money to purchase them. Even Koko the gorilla would have understood that Mrs. Warren is attacking the wrong addressees.

Debtors whose liabilities are devalued are the beneficiaries of inflationary monetary policy. Who are the biggest debtors? Not companies or private households, but governments. And who determines - directly or indirectly - the monetary policy course of the central banks? In the case of the USA, England, China or Japan, the respective government. In the case of the EU, the Commission and the EU Parliament. This is proof in the sense of Ludwig Erhard: Politics has a hand in the cradle of inflation.

Two quotes from the former head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, put it in a nutshell: "The United States can pay off all its debts because it can always print money to do so. So there is no likelihood of nonpayment." The alchemists' dream has thus come true: the central banks may not create gold, but at least they create money out of nothing. From the time before Greenspan headed the FED comes the following wisdom: "Without the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from inflationary withdrawal. There is no safe store of value."

Since 1971, when the last peg of the U.S. dollar to gold was ended, the money supply has increased tremendously on both sides of the Atlantic. However, many contemporaries today are no longer aware that a larger money supply does not lead to greater prosperity. Around the world, the understanding of the value of "real money" seems to have been lost. The grandparents of the baby boomers were still able to describe first-hand to their descendants the hyperinflation they experienced 100 years ago: Monetary assets were destroyed, the middle class was ruined and the way was paved for political totalitarianism. Apparently, no one is interested in that anymore. An expansionary monetary policy cannot be pursued in the long run without negative consequences. This was evident 100 years ago and it is no different today. The first world war was financed with the printing press - with disastrous consequences. Today, against all economic reason, a war is being financed by the printing press - the "Green Deal". The sad consequences will not be missed. Conclusion: Inflation has come to stay.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)






Also: https://mises.org/wire/growing-pile-public-debt-shows-inflation-here-stay


Grim. Very. I am still stunned that peopel are not afraid, ignore it, are not scared. They have all reason to be. I am worried. Extremely so. My life will get ruined not by a war, climate warming, pandemics or or lack of political wokeness, but by inflation. I dont get it that people do not see it and carry on as if nothing happens and keep on voting the criminals having caused and further causing this, and not revolting against them but even electing them. I dont get it, its completely beyond me.



Die dümmsten Kälber wählen sich ihre Schlachter selber - and lächeln dabei. Maybe they assume its just about getting photographed.

[Skybird]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/our-monetary-bubble-is-about-to-burst


If you believe that central banks are genuinely independent of government, you probably still imagine in middle age that the packages under the Christmas tree when you were a kid were put there by a fat geezer in red felt and not your parents. Keeping interest rates absurdly low while allowing inflation to soar is such a commonplace of monetary deviousness that it has a name: fiscal repression. Heavily indebted governments adore inflation, though politicians will never say so in public; it so magically melts the debt that behind closed doors US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen must be doing a little dance.
(...)
The US has been enjoying its longest bull market in history. The Dow streaked from a low of about 6,500 in 2009 to a peak of 36,799 this January, thereby multiplying in value by between five and six times in 13 years. Are all these companies making that much more stuff? The S&P’s wonky average price-to-earnings ratio — real earnings per share — suggests not. Surging stock prices have become dislocated from piddling (or sometimes nonexistent) real-world profits.
The FTSE has been dumpier, which may make British investors lucky. American investors have been lulled into imagining that markets only go up. But historical perspective can be bracing. The Dow didn’t recover from its 1929 crash for 25 years. The index also stayed basically flat for another 25 years, between 1960 and 1985. The only bull market comparable to today’s lasted nine years in the 1990s, and didn’t that end in tears.
(...)
The whole reason finance employs the metaphor ‘bubbles’ — lately, ‘superbubbles’ — is that they pop. The splatter is never pretty. The Fed and B of E have facilitated wild government spending of inflationary funny money, while forcing small-scale savers to put their precious assets at risk in unpredictable shares.

[mapuc]

Revealed:
Credit Suisse leak unmasks criminals, fraudsters and corrupt politicians

A massive leak from one of the world’s biggest private banks, Credit Suisse, has exposed the hidden wealth of clients involved in torture, drug trafficking, money laundering, corruption and other serious crimes.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/feb/20/credit-suisse-secrets-leak-unmasks-criminals-fraudsters-corrupt-politicians

Markus

[Skybird]

ECB confirms it has found its first functional neuron ever.

The ECB experts say one of them stumbled with his feet over a war somewhere, and fell to the ground and dropped his face deep into the dirt on the floor - and there it was, laid out before his eyes, a single one neuron between all the many dirty sandcorns and dust partciles, and the first ever found in the ECB.

The emergency investigation taskforce of the ECB is already engaged, trying to find out who of the ECB staffers needs one more desperately than the others. Doctors said the neuron is unique and precious, and thus should only be transplanted into the most worthy candidate. Lagarde already said she feels "complete" and were sure she does not need one. But network theoreticists expressed some doubt on her thesis.

https://beta.dw.com/en/ecb-to-accelerate-phaseout-of-fiscal-stimulus-amid-surging-inflation/a-61085258

[Skybird]

https://www.andreas-unterberger.at/2022/03/wie-sich-europa-mitten-im-krieg-selbst-beschdigt/


How Europe in the middle of a war damages itself further



The EU has studied the textbook "How to find the absolute worst time to implement a measure that is bad at any time" very carefully. Only this can explain which project has been presented by the EU Commission now, of all times, when Europe's economy is already suffering a huge shock due to the Ukraine war and the sanctions.

Certainly, the EU and its members are innocent of the war. And although the EU has been very cautious about the sanctions, just so as not to harm itself, there are clear consequences: A severe dent for the GDP, explosion of quite a few commodity prices, crash of stock exchange prices, fueling of inflation. All these consequences of war are unavoidable for the EU states.

Totally avoidable, on the other hand, would be the nonsense that the Commission is now planning with the Supply Chain Act. This project will deal an additional heavy blow to the economy, further fuel inflation and drive companies out of Europe. Yet the EU is not backing down from the project - despite its contemporaneity with the consequences of war.

Clearly, Brussels, once home to an economic community, has become the center of an anti-economic community.

For even in normal times, the Supply Chain Act, pursued with great tenacity by the unions and the Greens, would be a shot in its own knee. It creates gigantic bureaucracy. It will force all medium-sized and larger companies to buy in at high cost. They are supposed to monitor and enforce compliance with many social and environmental standards among their upstream, upstream, upstream (etc.) producers, or they will be severely penalized. All competition outside the EU is not subject to this cost-driving regime. It can therefore take market share from European companies if they do not leave the EU themselves.

Of course, a world would be nicer where no low wages are paid, no children work, and everyone has long vacations. But the EU forgets that many third world countries only earn money because their wages are low. It forgets that all this also existed in our country until the 20th century. If Europe wants to prohibit this in Asia and Africa, it will act like the imperialist colonial powers once did and take away jobs and income from the Third World.

So well-intentioned can also mean quite bad in good times.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

Belgium is more clever than Germany and extends the running time of its nuclear reatcors by at leats ten years.



And they did not even ask Brussels for permission. How dare they! :yeah:


Now, from a European perspective, the two reactors are disputed since long, and reasons for concern due to age and security of theirs. One wonders why "we Europeans" did not switch these off, and left the far better and safer German reactors on...?!


Without saiyn it, the German giovenrment obviousy internally has surrendered to the need for getting power supplies for france in the futrure, which means Germany once again makes itsel fdep3ending. France may not thgreaten us with invasions, but it wanst a very< diferent potlicval course inEurope, a strong socialist central state with planned economy and French hegemony - and germany shouold pay for it and for the debts of the others. With being dependent on them, Germany will find it harder and harder to resist to French ambitions.



But we hold up the precious illusions of moral superiority and a clean green conscience!! :yeah:

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:


This year could see the highest inflation in Germany since the Second World War. And that's not all: economists are already coming up with worst-case scenarios. Demonetization could also be accompanied by a slump in the economy - stagflation. Researchers believe that two factors in particular are essential for this.

According to Eurostat, our money is currently being devalued by 7.5 percent. And it could get worse in the course of the year. The Corona aid measures, the recovering economy after the pandemic and the high energy prices will ensure inflation in the euro area in 2022 that has not been seen since the oil crisis in the 1970s.

But the end of the banner days may not have arrived. Christian Sewing, CEO of Deutsche Bank and head of the banking association, said last week that inflation "could temporarily reach double digits this year" if the German government decides to impose energy embargoes on Russia.

There would then be a high probability, the bank president said, "that the German and probably also the European economy would fall into recession with long-term consequences." So further devaluation of
money and savings and a rise in unemployment.

Economists such as Professor Niklas Potrafke of the Ifo Institute now see the European Central Bank as having a duty: "The ECB should raise the key interest rate as quickly as possible. This is urgently needed to keep inflation in check." Economists see interest rate hikes as the most important step to contain the inflated money supply. But the ECB remains in Mediterranean tranquility. The Federal Reserve Bank in the U.S., the Fed, is also struggling to get off the ground when it comes to raising interest rates. It is too tempting for many countries to continue borrowing cheaply at low interest rates.

How serious is the situation now? And what factors could now lead to stagflation - in other words, a collapse of the economy accompanied by strong currency devaluation? And don't government aid packages, which are well-intentioned but also pump even more money into the economic cycle, have the opposite effect?

Markus Demary, senior economist at the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) in Cologne, Germany, looks across the Atlantic with concern: "In the U.S. in particular, spending policies have an inflationary effect, as they seek to increase demand through consumer vouchers, for example. In Europe, government spending during the pandemic was limited to maintaining businesses affected by the lockdown through liquidity assistance and short-time working benefits, neither of which increased demand."

But this is now changing, says IW researcher Demary: "That's because investments in the energy transition and higher military spending are increasing demand for goods and services." The state continues to pump money into the inflationary system.

The IW has now identified six factors influencing stagflation:

De-globalization: the zero-covid strategy in Asia have led to container congestion via lockdowns at ports. Key raw materials and intermediates are not arriving or are arriving late. The rise in freight rates has made food prices more expensive. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated the situation. Not only oil and gas, but also coal and uranium have become more expensive.
Decarbonization: The rising price of CO2 is supposed to make fossil fuels more expensive and thus force the transformation toward climate neutrality. However, since households cannot immediately invest in climate-neutral alternatives, the CO2 price first raises the cost of living.
Demographics: The shortage of skilled workers means that higher wages can be negotiated. A wage-price spiral is particularly the case in the U.S., where high unemployment means many labor contracts have to be renegotiated, and at the same time a wave of early retirements has set in, making labor scarcer. In Europe, the use of short-time allowances has mitigated this effect.
Digitization: Digitization has slowed inflation in recent years. Many electrical appliances have made a leap in quality without becoming significantly more expensive. This has a negative impact on the calculation of inflation. Due to the chip shortage, this effect has disappeared for the time being.
Government spending: With Russia's war on Ukraine, Europe needs to accelerate digital and climate-neutral transformation. Investments in cybersecurity and investments to mitigate energy dependence are needed. In addition, military spending must be increased. This will increase demand for goods and services. Shortages caused by container congestion in Asia will be exacerbated.
Monetary policy: Monetary policy did not have an inflationary effect in the years after the financial crisis, as states and also companies saved. However, due to the necessary investments in the energy turnaround and higher military spending, low interest rates are now having an inflationary effect.

And what are currently the biggest risk factors for stagflation? IW economist Demary sees two: "The zero-covid strategy and the associated container congestion at Asian ports, as well as the shortage and rising cost of energy due to Russia's war against Ukraine."

The Cologne-based IW is not the only one to draw a worst-case scenario. Professor Achim Wambach also sees a risk of stagflation. Wambach, president of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, Germany: "In March, we observed the sharpest decline in ZEW economic expectations for Germany since the survey was launched in 1991," Wambach told FOCUS Online: "At the same time, expectations for the inflation rate rose."

And Wambach also sees the biggest risks for stagflation in a further rise in energy prices, for example due to an energy embargo, and supply chain issues, exacerbated by the lockdowns in China.

So the economists in Cologne and Mannheim agree on the risk analysis here. Wambach: "Another risk is the behavior of the central banks. They have to fight inflation without choking off the economy," says Wambach: "It won't be easy to get the increased inflation expectations back under control."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Get your ticket, fasten your seatbelts and hug your loved ones one more time - it has begun.

[Skybird]

Die Welt writes:

Time and again, economists push their way forward and convey an illusory sense of security with their analyses. But they should stick to their models. After all, science advises, but politics decides. The division of tasks is as simple as that - and not only in a crisis.

Germany will suffer a loss of prosperity. Almost everyone agrees on this when it comes to the consequences of the war in Ukraine. Even the federal government and the opposition agree on this in beautiful harmony. Federal Finance Minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner reads it like this in "Bild am Sonntag": "The Ukraine war will make us all poorer, for example, because we will have to pay more for imported energy.

And it sounds almost congruent on ARD's "Report from Berlin" with Friedrich Merz, the CDU federal and CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader: "We have probably, at least for a certain time, put the peak of our prosperity behind us. It's getting more difficult."

The only dispute - some of it fierce personal denigration and ideological mudslinging - is over whether the consequences of a Russia embargo will be catastrophic or remain manageable.

In the event of a renunciation of Russian oil and gas, some fear mass unemployment and a wealth-damaging de-industrialization of Germany. Others, however, predict only a reduction in GDP of 0.3 to three percentage points and, at most, in the very worst case, a drop in GDP of six percentage points. They downplay this as a large but not catastrophic effect that would probably cause a severe recession, but would be less severe than Corona's assessment.

As seldom before, the question of wealth effects and the economic assessment of the Ukrainian war and its consequences reveal the limitations of economic analyses. That is why it is so important to remain cautious about what exactly is meant by "wealth losses," how high they are, and who they affect. Economics is and remains a social science and a humanities discipline. Many things cannot be measured, evaluated, compared and concluded unambiguously, objectively and conclusively. This is already evident in the starting positions that are taken and the assumptions that are made.

For example, looking at the past - for example, the oil price shocks in the 1970s or the move to phase out nuclear energy in the 2010s - it seems plausible that the adjustment costs to a boycott of Russian energy would be higher and more severe in the short term than in the longer term. And in the end, a society is likely to emerge from crises even stronger rather than weaker because the cost whip gives legs to technological progress and breakthrough innovations.

However, when the short term ends and the long term begins remains hidden in the darkness of theoretical model calculations, but is of course of fundamental importance for the practice of the people and companies affected, for the industrial sector and their energy-intensive production facilities. The fact that everything adapts to new circumstances in the long term is as correct as it is trivial, but it doesn't really help companies that don't manage the change, or employees who lose their jobs, or families who can no longer get together the money to buy groceries for the week.

Anyone who is directly affected, has a job in an energy-intensive industry and earns a living, will assess the consequences of a loss of Russian energy quite differently than someone in a non-profit environmental organization who would like nothing more than to switch from fossil to renewable energy sources as quickly as possible in order to put the brakes on climate change in the long term. For that reason alone, it's no surprise that research from trade associations, the financial sector, and corporate practitioners attribute dramatic declines in growth and employment to sanctions against Russia.

In contrast, theory-driven model analyses of university origin arrive at a far more merciful verdict. In a statement, for example, the Leopoldina Academy of Sciences considers the consequences of a Russia embargo to be manageable. In most cases, the proponents of an import ban on Russian energy assess the long-term adjustment effects - i.e., in particular, the accelerated transformation from fossil to renewable energy - as more positive and the short-term costs for the population and companies as less significant than the opponents.

However, the question of what exactly one means by costs and what one means by benefits turns out to be a socially and thus politically decisive problem that cannot be solved by economics. Theoretically, this is still relatively easy to answer. One tries to monetize as far as possible, i.e. to measure prices or at least costs for everything and anything or to assume them with more or less convincing arguments and auxiliary quantities.

But even in the case of simple processes, it becomes difficult, because what is determined here and now may look quite different tomorrow under different circumstances. This is of course especially true in times of war and crisis, before and after a pandemic, or more generally in the case of rapid upheavals, which ensure that what was valid in the past no longer provides any insight into how the future will be.
The limits of economics

It becomes even more difficult to predict costs and benefits or even losses of prosperity when it is hardly possible, if at all, to monetarize politically induced consequential effects, for example when it comes to personal fates, fears of loss, changes in behavior, and the need to change jobs and locations.

What does it mean for a population when jobs are lost, everyday consumer goods are missing from the shelves, everything becomes more expensive - many things even cost much more, supply chains break down and even vital products threaten to fail?

At this point at the latest, macroeconomics - as the science of macroeconomic observation, in contrast to microeconomics, which is concerned with the economic actions of individuals, households and companies - reaches the limits of its possibilities.

This is where the sphere of politics begins. They have to weigh up and decide, in the knowledge that today's decisions will have economic consequences, both monetary and non-monetary, for many years to come and for generations to come. In theory, almost anything is possible, but in practice this is far from being the case and many things can only be realized with considerable side effects.

Therefore, the most that good macroeconomics can do in times of upheaval is to speculate about probabilities, to discuss plausibilities, to uncover what are more important and what are negligible influencing factors and to compare alternatives.

But whether an embargo, sanction, or other measure is politically feasible and socially acceptable cannot be proven with a macro model, nor with an input-output table, and certainly not with any simulation calculations. This was, is and will remain a matter for politics and not for science or experts. This applies not only in times of war and crisis, but also in the event of a pandemic.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


The European Central Bank (ECB) seems increasingly trapped in its own bubble. Inflation is rampant everywhere in the euro zone, but the ECB's Governing Council is stubbornly sticking to its ultra-expansive monetary policy and wants to retain further flexibility. This can only be explained by a denial of reality.

Europe is experiencing the highest inflation in forty years. Only between 1973 and 1981 did demonetization quote at a similar or higher level. Then, too, a mixture of very lax monetary policy, war and energy price shocks fueled inflation sharply. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has so far hardly reacted to this development. It is increasingly losing touch with reality.
15 percent inflation in the Baltic states

In March, the inflation rate in the euro zone averaged 7.5 percent. In four member states, inflation has been in double digits - in some cases since December. In Estonia and Lithuania, it has now reached around 15 percent. These are frightening figures that were almost unimaginable a year ago, even for observers who were highly critical of the ECB. At such levels, the purchasing power of money is reduced by half in less than six years. To combat the high inflation rates, a restrictive monetary policy would now be appropriate. But the ECB is still light years away from this.

Measured by its measures, the central bank is instead still in crisis mode, continues to pursue an extremely expansive monetary policy, and is thus even helping to further fuel inflation. This is evident when looking at the neutral interest rate, which central bankers pay close attention to. At this interest rate, monetary policy would appear neither expansionary nor restrictive. The problem, however, is that the neutral interest rate cannot be calculated precisely, but only estimated. Many economists currently place it at around 1.5 to 2 percent.

Thus, to combat high monetary inflation, the ECB would have to raise policy rates above the neutral level for its policy to have a restrictive effect. Instead, the deposit rate, which has currently taken over the function of the key rate, is still at -0.5 percent and the actual key rate is 0 percent. To make matters worse, the monetary authority has still not ended its securities purchases, but is expected to do so only in the third quarter. According to the traditional measure of bond holdings, monetary policy is becoming even more expansionary from this perspective.

So far, there is little evidence that the ECB is adjusting to the changed environment. Its economists are sticking to their models, which, on the one hand, they themselves can influence with their assumptions and, on the other hand, are very much calibrated to the pre-pandemic world. However, these models have performed poorly over the past two years, as evidenced by the ECB's drastic adjustments to its own forecasts, which have repeatedly become necessary. The central bankers' models apparently do not capture the structural economic changes, namely higher commodity prices, longer-term disrupted supply chains and more.

As recently as March, ECB economists said they expected inflation to be around 2 percent in 2023 and 2024, which would be in line with the central bank's target. How inflation is expected to fall from what is likely to be 5 to 6 percent this year and, given increasingly likely second- and third-round effects, back to 2 percent so quickly remains a mystery.

Either the principle of hope now reigns in the ECB's glass tower, or a majority of Council members don't think high inflation is such a bad thing, given the ballooning national debt in some countries. It would not be the first time that a debt problem has been solved with the help of the central bank and financial repression through negative real interest rates.

But that would be disastrous for the ECB's reputation and formal independence. The "monetary guardians" should not repeat the mistakes of some central banks in the 1970s and allow themselves to be abused by governments for political purposes. The Governing Council would therefore be very well advised to finally focus on its noblest mandate: price stability.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)



The ideological obduracy and substantive incompetence of the ECB can only be described as malignant. For many years, I have viewed central banks as the most powerful and devious manifestations of an international financial mafia. They not only overstep their only mandate - to ensure price stability by fighting inflation - but also deliberately act against it and arrogate to themselves other responsibilities for which they are not mandated at all. This is organized crime, and the fact that gangster Lagarde, this tight socialist soldier, now wants to force a property register in the EU, while the uselessness of such a register has been proven in the pre-emptive fight against money laundering in countries that already have such a register, only gives rise to fears of further terror on the part of the EU socialists: namely compulsory levies and expropriations: one paints oneself already a map and marks on it with whom there is how much to plunder. All in the name of social solidarity and justice, of course - that sounds GREAT, doesn't it...?

Insidious scumbags.

[Skybird]

Can the EU do without China's critical metals?

https://beta.dw.com/en/the-eus-risky-dependency-on-critical-chinese-metals/a-61462687

[Catfish]

Just because a lot of western countries have given up exploration of resources does not mean that they cannot be found here. It is just the laziness as long as you can get it cheaper elsewhere.
After the reunification Germany now indeed has a lot of rare earths, and additionally those for nuclear use of all kinds (220.000 tons of uranium ore mined for the Soviet Union until 1989).

[Skybird]

^ The German horror has a name. Its "Genehmigungsverfahren" (approval procedure). That is so thick a grease than it could even stall a Russian ground offensive in its starting block. :timeout:

[Skybird]

The energy transition does not magically make geopolitical dependencies disappear - it only produces new ones.

I don't know to what degree this is understood by the opinion in other countries, but in Germany most people are drunk of their hyper-mega-total-absolute-idealistic hysteric romanticism again, and where these people are confronted with inherent problems of their maximum demands, they avoid these by simply demanding even more unrealistic goals instead. No sense of realism, but only absolute and absolutistic 110% idealism - that should be realised by quite disinhibited totalitarian brain-washing and political control and planned economy. Only Black or White. No inbetween, no shades of grey, no colour. And this attitude manifestates more and more accpetance for quite ugly, totalitarian and inherently violent measurements to enforce compliance with "White" at any cost.

The resulting state will remind us more of conditions in China or the old GDR than we will find comfortable.

But they say one gets used to everything.


Neue Zürcher Zeitung:

A turn of the times also brings turncoats. This is particularly evident in energy policy: Green politicians from countries like Germany or Austria are making pilgrimages to Qatar, the small Gulf state with the world's third-largest natural gas reserves, to secure gas supplies from a source other than Russia.

Change of scene to the USA: American President Joe Biden had campaigned against climate change with an extensive "green" package. Now he is looking for ways to produce more oil and lower the price of gasoline so that his party does not fall behind in the midterm elections in the fall.

It shows strength, not weakness, to change one's mind in response to changed circumstances. However, a dangerous naiveté prevailed for a long time in the discussion about the energy transition. One consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is that this naivety can no longer be afforded. The tragic war in Ukraine is now also dominating the discussion on climate policy.

There are two theses: Some say that the energy transition is suffering a setback because it is becoming clear that the energy supply does not currently work without fossil fuels. The others take the opposite view: Now is the time to push the use of renewable energies in order to become independent of petrostates like Russia. But this is a false dichotomy and only shows that the discussion about the energy transition has not made much progress.

Wishful thinking, however, cannot make the conflicting goals of a large-scale turnaround of an energy system disappear. The holy grail of energy policy is rather to reconcile security of supply, environmental compatibility and affordability. However, the "old" geopolitics of energy is not yet over; moreover, a "new" one is coming.

Wind turbines and solar panels, in the minds of many renewable energy advocates, are not only supposed to curb CO2 emissions, but also bring a geopolitical dividend. Because wind and solar would not have to be imported, dependence on oil- and gas-rich autocracies would magically dissolve, and with it a host of geopolitical conflicts.

Replacing fossil fuels with forms of energy that emit fewer greenhouse gases is a long process and a task of gigantic proportions. The mass of existing infrastructure and habits provides inertia. The goal is clear, the transition less so.

Large-scale solutions for storing excess electricity from renewables are still lacking. Therefore, for the foreseeable future, forms of energy are needed to guarantee the base load. This could be nuclear power, which is once again meeting with more approval. Or fossil fuels such as natural gas or coal will be used.

But even the goal is more uncertain than many think: The International Energy Agency (IEA), an organization of industrialized countries, worked out a possible path for a globally climate-neutral energy system in 2050.

https://i.postimg.cc/26HxDTW3/NZZ.png (https://postimages.org/)

Even in this scenario, the world cannot completely do without oil, natural gas or coal. The IEA still assumes that fossil fuels account for around one-fifth of primary energy consumption - primarily for the production of plastics.

The importance of fossil fuels will undoubtedly decline. However, the energy transition will not lead to a geopolitical land of milk and honey; rather, the process will be chaotic. In the face of electrification and digitalization, it is often forgotten that raw materials are an important basis for economic activity. Therefore, a realistic energy and climate policy must take into account the supply side for oil and natural gas, but also the metals cobalt, nickel or copper, which are enormously important for the energy transition.

The transition to an energy system with fewer greenhouse gas emissions will inevitably lead to winners and losers, some countries will be shaken up, and new conflicts and dependencies will emerge. Petro states are likely to give way to electric states. There will be two major problems in the process.

First, while oil and natural gas demand will decline over the long term, this does not necessarily mean that an era of cheap fossil fuels is dawning. Rather, prices for these will be subject to considerable fluctuations - with implications for security of supply. For petrostates, however, the more successful the energy transition, the more oil and gas producers will have to produce in order to keep revenues stable.

In the process, the foreign policy benefits of energy supplies are also losing value: The question arises, for example, as to how long the window will remain open in which - as in the case of Russia - Europe's energy supply can be used as a weapon. The Kremlin has already given an answer to this. Because Western companies, urged by politicians, the public and also investors, are increasingly withdrawing from the fossil fuel business, some petro-states are gaining relative market power - within a shrinking market.

This is especially true of countries with low production costs, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and some Gulf states. Venezuela, Angola, Nigeria, Azerbaijan and the countries bordering the North Sea, on the other hand, will fall behind. Conflicts within petrostates with sharply dwindling revenues and less stable political institutions are likely to increase.

Second, the world is sliding into new dependencies. Batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels or power lines require enormous quantities of metals such as lithium, nickel, zinc, copper and cobalt. Similar to many petro states, electric states will experience their version of the resource curse. An abundance of raw materials often fosters autocratic regimes, corruption, inefficient governance, and conflict.


https://i.postimg.cc/dQx9NHvx/NZZ2.png (https://postimages.org/)



For some metals, global dependence on a single producing country is disproportionately higher than for fossil fuels. For example, nearly 70 percent of all cobalt comes from Congo-Kinshasa, and about 60 percent of rare earths from China. "Today it's about natural gas from Russia, tomorrow it may be about deposits of lithium for battery production," summarizes IEA Director Fatih Birol in conversation.

The race for raw materials for the green future will become more intense. China is less reluctant than Europe and the U.S. to invest in countries with poor reputations. In addition, resource nationalism is likely to increase in the form of nationalizations of mining companies or high levies.

International energy and climate policy therefore requires more than climate conferences and the proclamation of lofty goals. It is also about keeping the economic and geopolitical risks of an energy transition in check. At the same time, the trap of a planned economy in the energy and raw materials sector should be avoided.

As a first step, this means that resource-poor countries should not limit their own room for maneuver with technology bans. The fact that Germany and Switzerland, for example, are at least openly discussing extending the operating lives of nuclear power plants is the right signal. In addition, the system of strategic reserves, which was introduced in the industrialized countries after the oil shock in the 1970s, must be expanded for natural gas, but also for "critical" metals.

Energy and commodity markets are extremely cyclical, which means that supply can lag demand and vice versa. In order to increase security of supply, a market for reserve capacity should be established not only in the electricity sector, but also for fossil fuels. In this context, companies would be compensated for providing spare production or supply capacities.

Renewable energy has also given rise to a belief in the feasibility of energy independence. More independence is indeed a goal, but the means go beyond narrow "green" policies: rather, more mining and extraction projects should be allowed in Europe, even the financing of oil and gas fields should be possible, so that the field is not just left to state investors from Russia, Saudi Arabia or China.

Climate policy should be based on a CO2 price and not on bans for idealistic reasons. However, this path to self-sufficiency must not degenerate into protectionism, and among the industrialized nations, only the United States has the potential for energy independence anyway.

The better way is to build more flexibility into the energy system and to keep the number of energy sources and energy suppliers as large as possible - in order to reduce dependence on a petro or electric state. This also means that even in the energy transition, raw materials from "difficult" countries must be used. This is the uncomfortable truth of the turn of the times.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[Skybird]

https://chrisveber.blogspot.com/



If a doctor misdiagnoses a disease, there is a high probability that his treatment will not improve the patient's situation. This also applies to the so-called guardians of our currency.

In Europe, the devaluation of money is exploding. Inflation is reaching a level that will soon make it impossible even for the middle classes to finance their daily lives. So the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise the key interest rate to get inflation under control. However, I believe that in doing so, the ECB is pouring gasoline on the fire.

The ECB assumes that, according to classical doctrine, the increase in the price of money as a commodity will lead to a slowdown in growth and thus inflation. It also assumes that inflation is largely based on an oversupply of capital. After all, the ECB has inflated its total assets from 1.5 trillion euros in December 2007 (before the 2008 bank bailout) to 8.78 trillion in April 2022. This flood of money has indeed already led to inflation, but until now it was called "rising stocks and real estate values," was popular among the very wealthy, and (except for real estate prices) had no impact on the lives of ordinary people or companies. Because the flood of money never reached them. Or do you know an employee or a carpenter whose bonds were bought by the ECB? Or a plumber who was able to draw down capital interest-free?

So if we have had an interest-free money glut for 14 years, why are prices in the real economy only now rising? Because the unchanged purchasing power of ordinary people and companies is only now coming up against a drastically tighter supply of goods and thus driving up prices.

In my opinion, there are two reasons for this. The Corona "measures" and the "energy turnaround," i.e., the shortage and increased cost of energy.

The Corona lockdowns have permanently destroyed global supply chains. Anyone who has tried to buy anything lately, anything at all, be it a Playstation 5, a car or even a bicycle, will know what I am talking about. Even home builders have found that there is simply a lack of everything. The global economy is a highly complex and interconnected system that cannot simply be turned on or off at will - as quite a few of our politicians and "experts" apparently believed. Repairing the damage done by the Corona "measures" will take years. But only if this insanity is not continued and supply chains can finally settle down.

The "energy turnaround," on the other hand, has led to a jump in gas prices in particular. As of mid-year 2021, the Dutch TTF gas price (a reference price in Europe) has risen, with a nice peak after September 26. What happened in 2021? In June, the European Climate Change Act was approved by EU ministers. And September 26 was the German federal election. So it was reasonable for gas suppliers to assume that achieving the "climate targets" and Europe's largest economy phasing out nuclear and coal would lead to increased demand. Gas prices were rising long before Putin's invasion of Ukraine. By the way, gas supplies from Russia and transit from Ukraine were uninterrupted until recently (since April 27, gas has not been supplied to Poland and Bulgaria), so the gas price increase can be attributed to speculation rather than shortages.

But rising energy prices are not a problem for our governments. After all, less should be consumed. For the sake of the climate. What our governments have not considered is that energy and gas are necessary for any economic activity. For the transport of goods as well as for the production of artificial fertilizers. Producers like BASF or Yara have already completely or partially stopped the production of artificial fertilizers in the fall of 2021. Because of gas prices. Less fertilizer leads firstly to less food production and secondly to higher fertilizer prices for farmers. Which in turn will both cause consumer prices to rise rapidly.

Perhaps our governments should have taken a look at a satellite image of Africa at night before deciding on various energy changes and taxes. There you can see what energy poverty and a "supply-oriented energy supply" mean. Poverty. Shortage. Which, by the way, is also a reason for migration from Africa to Europe. Polemically, at least migration will then stop when Europe has reached the economic level of Africa.

The inflation that can be felt in everyday life is therefore due to the economy's lack of production, which has become deliberately more expensive. Now the ECB is raising the key interest rate in order to curb economic growth, thus throwing an additional cudgel between the legs of production, which will make supply even more difficult. I'm not one hundred percent sure that's a good idea. Small and medium-sized businesses, in particular, are already battered enough by the Corona "measures," and an interest rate hike could be the final push into the abyss for many. And the increase in the cost of money as a commodity, which like energy is included in all products, would of course be passed on to consumers.

What an interest rate hike could do is cause the euro exchange rate to rise against other currencies. And thus a cheapening of imports. But whether this rise would offset the burdens is uncertain. Just as any economic "science" is uncertain because it is a social science. It humanizes, forecasts should be read with as much caution as the predictions of Corona modelers.

What would really combat price increases would be a sure end to all Corona "measures," a rollback of tax increases on energy, and an acknowledgement that an industrialized continent cannot run on wind and solar.

Incidentally, there will be great wailing and lamenting in the financial markets if the ECB scales back its bond purchases and shrinks its balance sheet. But dividends will continue to be paid, and falling housing prices should not be the biggest problem of all.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Catfish]

Had a discussion with someone from Bosnia. While we agreed about what we think of Putin and Russia he wondered why prices are skyrocketing everywhere. Putin has not delivered less gas or oil, yet. So why?
And why are e.g. vegetable oil prices rising so crazily?
From Poland to the baltic states, Czechia and so on, the shelves are full of wheat, vergatable oil, all to be had for normal prices. Fuel costs are about as high as in january. Not so in Germany.
He blamed it on german panic and stockpiling, along with certain companies' greed, having a pretext to make more money.

[Skybird]

Different countries/government have different priorities and options to subsidize porices. The french state "owns" the nuclear sector, so the president there has otrher options to limit prices and subsidize electricty on behalkf of the consumers(=voters), than the German government has. Same may be true for Baltic states and Slovenia, Poland, regarding sunseed oil or wheat. But that wheat has risen drmatzaically in prices is a fact that you can easily check at the globe's most important wheat trading platform, the exchange in Chicago:


https://i.postimg.cc/Y9QtPFX2/wheat.png (https://postimages.org/)


Sunseed oil may be a typical German thing again (I dont buy it anyway...), but in many Arab and African countries where wheat as well as sunflower oil are ab sic foods, prices have exploded as well. It will become worse with Ukraine exports breaking down and Russia certainly using wheat as a wepaoin to blackmail influence and also chasing prices up to generate higher income, like OPEC not producing more oil to drive oil prices.



It can become worse again later on when fertilizers become a rare commodity, too.



Its a viscous circle. The whole collapse of global supply chains is. Even if from now on politicians would do everything perfectly correct and right, it will take years for them to normalize. I expect inflation to become two digits, and stay high for years. Add to this that soon here in Europe states will bitterly compete for gas (not only as an energy carrier, but a production commodity), and electrical power.



The good thing is that reality will mercilessly break certain ideological hobby projects by the ultraprogressives. With their wanted green dreal policies they make evertyhing just worse. It is doomed to collapse sooner or later. So is the wanted fincial penalising for fossil fuels. Even nuclear energy will be back - French dominated thanks to Merkel's brainless idiocy. They will give these errings up - or see Europe cooking up in social unrest and maybe even regional rebellions and revolutions, who knows. Its all home grown, and it could have been known in advance. Idiots. Possible that the states react with "administrative violence": establishing police states and total surveillance tyrannies that replace liberal democracies. All under the name of "digitalization".



The nice post WW2 times are over. From now on things will get dirtier, ruinous and very expensive. I do not think the world will recover from the collapse of global supply chains, will not return to like things were before 2020.

[Rockstar]

Had a discussion with someone from Bosnia. While we agreed about what we think of Putin and Russia he wondered why prices are skyrocketing everywhere. Putin has not delivered less gas or oil, yet. So why?
And why are e.g. vegetable oil prices rising so crazily?
From Poland to the baltic states, Czechia and so on, the shelves are full of wheat, vergatable oil, all to be had for normal prices. Fuel costs are about as high as in january. Not so in Germany.
He blamed it on german panic and stockpiling, along with certain companies' greed, having a pretext to make more money.

Besides blaming inflation on Germans ;), price gouging, speculators and hoarders. I’m not sure if yours or other governments are print and spend. Even if they are not I can’t help but think our actions may be spilling over and affecting others economies as well.

According to Peter Schiff: you should not just consider inflation as an expansion of the money supply and the resulting increase in consumer and asset prices. You need to think of it at the most basic level – as taxation. Inflation is really a tax. That’s basically what it boils down to. And you have to understand this.

Governments have two ways of paying for their expenditures. The most honest way is through direct taxation. But that’s not particularly popular with voters and politicians are reluctant to push tax increases. So politicians, looking to get as many votes as possible, try to find other ways to finance their spending that won’t aggravate the taxpayer.

The other way is borrowing money. The government sells bonds to willing lenders. In effect, it is pushing taxation into the future. Eventually, the lender has to be paid back and that money must come from the taxpayers of the future. Meanwhile, the taxpayer of today has to pay the interest on the borrowed money. In other words, when government pays for its spending programs by borrowing, the taxpayers are actually on the hook for an even greater cost.

Today, the US government faces another problem. It can’t afford to pay a high enough interest rate to private lenders to make lending to Uncle Sam a viable transaction. This is due to the enormous debt the US government has run up. It is well over $27.5 trillion and growing.

The US government has borrowed so much money to try to delay the day of reckoning for so long and kicked the can down the road as we’ve gone deeper and deeper into debt, now that we have a national debt that’s approaching $30 trillion, there is no way that the US government can finance that. Repaying the debt is completely impossible — not with money that has any real purchasing power.

So at this point, the government is forced to pay for its expenditures through inflation. The US Treasury still sells bonds on the open market as it always has. But now, the Federal Reserve is putting its thumb on the bond market, buying Treasuries and paying for them with money it creates out of thin air.

When the government taxes you to pay for its spending, it literally takes your money. Your money it takes just comes right out of your paycheck if it’s an income tax. Government takes your money and then they give that money to somebody else. And now somebody else spends the money that you earned. You can’t spend it because the government took it and gave it to somebody else. So, your standard of living, your purchasing power, is diminished because you have less money to spend.

But when the government doesn’t raise your taxes, if it just prints money and then gives it to that same individual to spend, your purchasing power, at least in dollar terms, hasn’t been diminished. But now you have another guy or gal who is given all this cash that can now go out and spend it. And so what happens is that person competes with you to buy stuff and prices are bid higher. And so the result of that type of taxation is that prices go up. Everything becomes more expensive. So, instead of the government taking your money, the government takes the purchasing power of your money. And that’s a tax.

The government was borrowing and spending at a torrid pace before the pandemic. Now it is off the charts. Consider the fact that nearly half of the money the government is spending is being printed out of thin air by the Federal Reserve.

So, it’s not really ‘borrow and spend’ anymore. It’s ‘print and spend.'”
Contrary to what a lot of people seem to think, inflation is not a good thing.
Inflation is not desirable. Higher inflation is not making progress.”

Peter Schiff has called it a reckless monetary policy that is designed to protect the government – not the economy and certainly not the people.

[Skybird]

The Bank of england has raised interest rates to 1 %, three of the nine board members even wanted to raise them to 1.25.

The FED just added 0.5 to the interest rates, pushing them to 0.75-1.0%. Faster than weas expected, one expected a 0.25% raise only. But somethign - finally - rings the alarm bells even over there in the US, I wonder what it is...

And Gangsterlagarde and her accomplices in the ECB? They continue to find lazy excuses to sit back and do nothing, and to let inflation run wild in order to continue to engage in forbidden state financing. Planned economy theorists can be relied upon.

[Catfish]

Besides blaming inflation on Germans ;), price gouging, speculators and hoarders. I’m not sure if yours or other governments are print and spend. Even if they are not I can’t help but think our actions may be spilling over and affecting others economies as well.
I am not even trying to pretend that i understand economic cycles, but the text you posted helped me understand it a bit better.

Of course the dollar and what happens with it will influence other economies. Not with bribing or such direct action, but markets react to all kinds of rumours. Which is why i think economy is a crazy random circus, not a science, and can thus not be foretold

Spiegel wrote a few years ago:

"If Sarkozy interrupts his vacation, the markets interpret his sudden return as a sign that the situation there is worse than they thought -
and promptly set their sights on the country.

And if there is an argument between Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti, then the markets target Italy, because they doubt that the Italian government is serious about introducing austerity measures.

The markets take advantage of every weakness and every rumor to speculate against one country after the next.

In doing so, they aggravate the crisis. Once a country has become the subject of rumors and speculation, other investors become nervous. Fearing further price declines, pension funds and insurance companies also start selling stocks and bonds. In the end, fear nurtures fear and a panic ensues."

[Jimbuna]

The Bank of england has raised interest rates to 1 %, three of the nine board members even wanted to raise them to 1.25.



Hopefully the interest rate on savings will follow shortly.

[Jimbuna]

The UK is affected by prices rising across the globe. So there is a limit as to how effective UK interest rate rises will be in curbing inflation.

However, other countries have been adopting a similar approach, and have also recently been raising their interest rates:

United States: raised rates to 1% - its biggest interest rate increase in more than two decades
India: raised rates to 4.4% - the first rate hike in two years
Australia: raised rates to 0.35% - the first rate rise in over a decade
Mexico: raised rates to 6.5%

[Skybird]

Something absolutely profound about inflation:

"Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country, means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check. But people today use the term `inflation' to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. . . . As you cannot talk about something that has no name, you cannot fight it. Those who pretend to fight inflation are in fact only fighting what is the inevitable consequence of inflation, rising prices. Their ventures are doomed to failure because they do not attack the root of the evil. They try to keep prices low while firmly committed to a policy of increasing the quantity of money that must necessarily make them soar. As long as this terminological confusion is not entirely wiped out, there cannot be any question of stopping inflation." - Ludwig von Mises

He called inflation "an unworkable fiscal policy". And the president of the Reichsbank in Germany in the mid and late 20s of the last century fell exactly into this trap and misunderstood the terms, and in order to fight high prices and helkp worker to get along pumped out more money to the crowds. We all know how it ended.

The ECB today does exactly the same, so do and did the other centrla banks. Nobody has a knoweldge for what von Mises says, althogh it is so very profound and elemental. This is part of most basic economic on 1 0 1.

The consequences of respecting this and actign accordngly would limit the reach of what staes, parties and politicians can do and then get away with, at the cost of later generations. Thjats why govenrment tell you that ifnlation is wnated, must be controlled, and is positive. No, it is not, never was, never will be. Its completely illogical to claim so. Keeping to these nonsense claims is living evidence for that the idiots running state financial and economic politics have absolutely no clue about what they are doing there. Or they know it but keep on doing the wrong thing, then its rightout malice. Gangsterlagarde and Criminaldraghi being good exmaples. Thats why I call them this way, because thats what they and their collegues are: gangsters and criminals.

The car is so deep in the swamps now that not even the upper tip of the roof antenna sticks out anymore, so do not ask me how to get it out there without making yourself wet and getting dirty hands. The desaster cannot be avoided, because it already has been completed. What now comes is not the desaster, but its symptoms and consequences. With debt loads, Corona, collapsed supply chains and war all coming together for a perfect storm, each of them serving as a catalysts accelerating things.

I talked of this since many years, haven't I. And now it has begun.


Edit. I am not certain. The currency units (I do not call FIAT money a money) that have been created and handed out, must be collected and destroyed again. The number of currency units in ciruclation must be reduced, dramatically. So maybe it might help to hand out coupons for the basic goods and basic supplies of ordinary life, instead of paying out money ("Oh, that is so against human dignity, we cannot do that!") And instead of prohibiting the buying of things or rationing, auctions on certain, especially industrial comodities, might be an idea worth to consider, so that companies can and must weigh themselves what worth certain things - energy for exmaple - has for them, or whether they find workarounds and innovations so that they do not need to buy needed stuff for high prices ("Oh, that is so coldhearted and socially inuzst to do, we cannot do that!") . Finally, companies that can not do either the one or the other must be allowed to go bancrupt and leave the market competition. The extremely high rate of zombie companies, which has exploded further during the Lockdowns, which hangs like an increasingly heavy millstone around the neck of the competitive companies, must be dramatically cut back. The zombies have now started to pull the others down the abyss along with themselves. Too much burden is too much burden. ("Oh, that will cost jobs [hahaha, you suckers call that jobs? I call it occupational therpay to hide the economic symptoms] we really cannot do that!")

Of course, no government in the West will do any of these things. Instead they will paint the New Money Theory in new gold and dance around it. Although it is nothing than old lousy wine in new bottles. It poisended the drinker back then, and still does so today. In times of pain, the false messiahs appear and travel across the country, a rat tail of people in their wake.


Well, only panic on the Titanic. Happy sinking. Thanks but no thanks for pulling me down alongside with you. I am not grateful.

[Rockstar]

Also, besides print and spend inflating prices. Severe drought and war have affected wheat prices as well. Nothing wrong with a few extra pounds of flour next time you go shopping. Just be thankful you don’t live in Egypt. They import something like 80% of their grain from Russia and Ukraine, things aren’t looking good for them. Chickens need grain to lay eggs too

World wheat markets remain under close scrutiny.
May 04, 2022

The world is watching and wondering about this year’s wheat harvest — both in Kansas and abroad.

The combination of expanding drought conditions and steep input prices in the United States and the continued impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has the markets — and farmers around the world — on edge. A collection of resources from policymakers and analysts offers insights into the economic impacts of current geopolitics.


“Continued disruption in Ukraine through their wheat harvest combined with expanding drought conditions here at home will continue to weigh on the world wheat market,” said Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin. “This growing season has the unprecedented combination of geopolitics, weather and some of the highest fertilizer prices and chemical inputs — but farmers here and abroad will remain resilient reminders of the importance of agriculture as a constant in a world full of conflict.”

World consumption
The world consumes about 787.4 million metric tons (28.9 billion bushels) of wheat each year. Russia and Ukraine are the world’s top and fifth exporters, respectively, according to the most recent available stats from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Together, Russia and Ukraine make up around one-third of the world’s wheat production.

Ukrainian and Kansas wheat farmers follow similar timelines for winter wheat production. The crops planted last fall should be green and growing, marching toward harvest in late June or early July. Following harvest, milling-quality wheat from Ukraine is typically exported to the Middle East, Africa and Bangladesh; and feed-quality wheat to other Asian countries, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in an April 6 international trade report.

Impacts to be seen

The impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and disruption of these trading channels are yet to be fully calculated, but will likely extend beyond this year’s harvest.

On an aggregate level, global wheat production has been adequate in 2020-21 and only 1% below consumption requirements in 2021-22,” the report read. “However, wheat stocks among major global exporters have tightened in recent years as international trade has grown. Major exporters’ stocks in 2021-22 are forecast to be at their lowest levels in 10 years, putting upward pressure on global prices.”

Unknowns about how intensely and how long the conflict will affect world wheat production are compounded by the moisture concerns Kansas wheat farmers know all too well.

“While the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the biggest driver of wheat futures prices, U.S. winter wheat in drought conditions across the Plains is becoming an increasingly bullish factor,” wrote Michael Anderson, U.S. Wheat Associates. “This latest concern is likely to overshadow USDA’s recent estimate for a slight increase in winter wheat acres, with potentially serious implications for supplies heading into summer.”

Harvest coming
Wheat harvest is still months away in both Kansas and Ukraine, and a lot could change in that time.

The speculation and projections will continue until the combines start to roll, but farmers will remain resilient in the face of whatever adversity they face and committed to stewarding their land and their crops.

Source: Kansas Wheat is solely responsible for the information provided and is wholly owned by the source. Informa Business Media and all its subsidiaries are not responsible for any of the content contained in this information asset.


Drought impacts U.S. wheat, barley, bean output
Texas Crop and Weather Report – Sept. 8, 2021

https://agrilifetoday.tamu.edu/2021/09/08/drought-impacts-u-s-wheat-barley-bean-output/

[Skybird]

I love my hirse. Most of it comes from China. :D

[Skybird]

"40% Losses." Focus writes:


The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is seen as a role model by many German investors. Its head Nicolai Tangen is now warning of the serious consequences of inflation for many investors. He expects losses of up to 40 percent.

Nicolai Tangen calls the current economic situation a "new era." The head of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund had warned early on about inflation, as well as the serious consequences. Putin's invasion of Ukraine is now doing its bit to keep returns down for investors, he said. "The Ukrainian war is increasing price increases," he told the "Wirtschaftswoche".

He uses a comparison to illustrate how precarious the situation is for savers: over the past 25 years, investors in the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund could expect an annual return of 6.6 percent. "That's no longer possible in the next ten years," he warns. "Investors should be happy if they make any profits at all," he concludes.

Tangen expects prices to remain high - possibly even rise further. "Prices could rise even faster than before because many factors are driving inflation," he explains. For example, globalization and free world trade, which once led to low prices, are being reversed. At the same time, there is a shortage of labor in many sectors. In addition, prices for energy and raw materials are rising.

Accordingly, he is critical of the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) had only held out the prospect of raising interest rates in the euro zone for the summer: "In my opinion, the ECB is lagging behind," Tangen said. He said he was puzzled by the decision to leave interest rates at the current level for now. Rising inflation will lead to rising interest rates sooner or later anyway, he said.

The head of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund paints a gloomy scenario: Companies and consumers would then be able to buy fewer goods and would find it more difficult to obtain loans for certain goods. This makes it more likely that high inflation will be coupled with low economic growth - "and that in a phase in which valuations are already high, in which stocks and bonds are already expensive."

Such a situation is called stagflation. "If we suffer losses in all asset classes in such a situation, we face losses of up to 40 percent," Tangen further warns. Stress tests showed that.
Investors must be prepared

So investors are facing extremely challenging times. What this new "era" could mean for investment strategies was recently explained by expert Ingo Mainert to FOCUS Online: "Old virtues do not have to be fundamentally thrown overboard, but the current situation requires new approaches in some cases," he wrote in a guest article at the beginning of April.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

Somehow the sanctioning of the Ruble does not seem to work as intended...

25 of the world's 33 most important currencies have increased in value against the euro since last May. Surprisingly, the Russian ruble is at the top of the list. Only eight currencies are trading worse today than a year ago. One lost more than a third of its value.

Going on vacation this year could be a bit more expensive than usual - at least if you want to spend a few nice weeks outside the EU. The euro has lost value against the majority of currencies used around the world. Since the beginning of May 2021, the world's 33 major currencies have gained an average of five percent in value against the euro. Conversely, this means that these currencies have become 3.4 percent more expensive on average for Germans.

Although the weak euro makes vacations more expensive, it makes export-oriented companies happy. They are now earning more from their exports than a year ago. The calculation is simple: If a German company sells a product in the U.S. for $100, for example, it could exchange that for about 83 euros a year ago. Today, it receives 94 euros for it, i.e. around 13 percent more. Conversely, imports to Germany are becoming more expensive. What a German company could buy in the USA a year ago for the equivalent of 83 euros now costs 94 euros.

There are several reasons for the current weakness of the euro. One is on the other side of the Atlantic. Because the U.S. Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates significantly, but the European Central Bank (ECB) has not yet done so, investors in the U.S. are currently enjoying much better conditions than here in Germany. Accordingly, professionals now prefer to invest in the U.S. than in the euro zone. So they are selling euros and euro-denominated assets and buying the same in U.S. dollars. Accordingly, the demand for euros is falling and that for dollars is rising, which explains the price development of both currencies.

But the euro also fell against many other currencies. Here, the kinks in the exchange rate curves were particularly visible in recent months. They are connected with the war in Ukraine. Because of its geographical proximity alone, it affects Europe more than other continents. But it also has a greater impact on us because we trade more goods with Russia and Ukraine, especially oil, gas and coal from Russia.


The war means that energy prices in particular have risen more in our country than in many others. This leads to a weakening of the economy. But with a weaker economy, less money can be earned, which is why this is another reason for investors to exchange their investments held in euros, such as stocks or bonds, for those from abroad.

Surprisingly, the Russian ruble is at the top of the currency rankings. Its value has risen by almost 28 percent against the euro in the past twelve months. After a deep fall at the beginning of the Ukraine war, the exchange rate has even more than doubled since then. This has less to do with the currency's sudden popularity than with a trick played by the Russian government. Since the outbreak of the war, the government has forced Russian exporters to exchange 80 percent of their foreign currency earnings into rubles. Accordingly, these companies have to buy up many rubles on the market, and the high demand causes the exchange rate to rise.

In second place is the Brazilian real. It has gained around 23 percent in value in a year. Brazil is currently benefiting from two developments. Because commodity prices have risen sharply, the country's export revenues are flourishing. Iron ore, crude oil and copper are among the country's most important commodities. In addition, the Brazilian central bank has gradually raised interest rates from 2 to 10.75 percent since March 2021. On the one hand, this is necessary to combat the high inflation of 8 percent last year, but it also offers foreign investors attractive returns. However, the real is still at a low level. In the past five years, it has lost almost 35 percent of its value.

The Turkish lira has lost somewhat more in just one year. It is currently down 36.2 percent, making it the weakest currency against the euro in this period. The reason for this continues to be the misguided interest rate policy, which is significantly influenced by President Recip Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan refuses to raise interest rates, despite galloping inflation of 61 percent. Accordingly, investors are fleeing the currency, which is devaluing faster than they can collect yields.


Turkey thus leads by far a field of eight currencies that have deteriorated against the euro. The other seven are mainly from other European countries, such as the Swedish krona, the Danish krone, the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint. The Japanese yen also deteriorated due to the weak economic development there and persistently low interest rates. From South America, the Argentine and Chilean pesos were among the losers.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

Beware that inflation could quickly turn into deflation.


The banks' credit expansion has not increased economic resources, since the capital goods needed for investment have not been co-created. In the race for scarce capital goods and labor, entrepreneurs bid up prices and wages. This creates the illusion of greater wealth. The recipients of higher wages spend more money; the monetary illusion makes them feel richer even when in reality they have received only a wage increase that compensates for the loss of monetary value.

As long as the prices of goods have not adjusted to the increased money supply, more is consumed, because the entrepreneurs who sell at the old prices sell too cheaply, i.e. without taking their future higher costs into account in the calculation.

While the boom is still underway, the errors are becoming apparent. The capital goods that would be necessary for all entrepreneurs to successfully complete the investments they have embarked upon are not available. The abundance of credit and the artificially low interest rate had feigned a greater amount of capital than actually exists. The guardian function that the interest rate was supposed to perform - by ensuring that only those investments are started whose completion is possible with the available resources and desired by consumers - must now be taken over by market prices: Escalating costs lead to the abandonment of many projects. No one can get around the natural law that one must save in order to invest. If there is no voluntary saving, then the artificial boom brought about by expansionary monetary policy leads to forced saving: general price increases that reduce consumption. There is now more money in circulation, but it has less purchasing power per unit.


Suddenly comes the abrupt reversal. Credit expansion falters. This can happen through a reversal of monetary policy by central banks (interest rates rising instead of falling). But it also happened in the era before central banks existed, such as when lenders become nervous at a certain point by the sheer volume of credit (and the concomitant stretching of bank balance sheets) and/or by the arrival of news that contrasts with the exuberant optimism (and is evidence of the entrepreneurial errors committed during the credit expansion phase).

Since there are no liquidity buffers in the whole system, this triggers a chain reaction, prices fall. This is a perfectly good thing, but it is perceived as a crisis, which in our time the central banks are countering with the only tool at their disposal: Reinflate by cutting interest rates or, if that doesn't do the trick, by taking unorthodox measures like buying government bonds.

We are seeing the first signs of deflation. Many of the indicators that showed inflation in 2020/2021 have turned against a backdrop of rising interest rates. The Nasdaq index is down more than 20 percent year-to-date. Oil and commodity prices are well off their March highs. Gold's March surge to an all-time high of $2070 per troy ounce quickly turned out to be a false signal: It is now more than $200 lower. Due to rising market interest rates, demand for real estate loans in the U.S. has plunged by half compared to the same period last year. A worse-than-expected quarterly report from Alcoa, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, led to a slump in numerous commodity stocks at the end of April as investors wondered whether the zenith of the commodity boom might have passed.

The price of copper (in U.S. dollars), which is often used as an indicator of future economic activity ("Dr. Copper"), is already 20 percent below its all-time high in March. Not to mention all the listed companies whose quarterly results disappointed.

However, the picture is not uniform: Another important economic indicator, the Baltic Dry Index (which shows how much it costs to transport bulk goods across the oceans) has reached an annual high these days.

The financial crisis year of 2008 showed how quickly the turnaround from credit expansion to deflation occurs. It was characterized by galloping inflation, especially in the commodities, energy and construction sectors. The oil price reached its all-time high in July 2008, when the price of North Sea Brent crude climbed to $147. By December 2008, it had fallen to just 33 U.S. dollars. The galloping inflation was the end point of a credit expansion, or bubble, orchestrated by the central banks.

Six months before the bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, you could already see a sign of deflation if you knew what to look for: The U.S. dollar, which had been steadily losing ground against the euro since the summer of 2002, hit its all-time low in March 2008, on that weekend when the major U.S. investment bank Bear Sterns admitted its liquidity problems. From then on, the dollar went up sharply - not because the prospects for the American economy had improved (they hadn't), but because investors who had borrowed cheaply in U.S. dollars to put the money into all kinds of speculations around the world got cold feet. They smoothed out their trades and repaid the dollar loans, leading to strong demand for the American currency. The rising dollar was the sign that financial markets were in risk-off mode: Capital preservation was more important than capital gain. We are in such a phase today as well.

What will happen next? One factor of uncertainty is the People's Republic of China. The lockdowns there are currently one of the biggest drags on the global economy. If they are lifted and there is a major infrastructure program in China in the run-up to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese CP, which will take place in October, this could lead to a new phase of credit expansion in the summer - especially if the key interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve are smaller than market participants expect. And that's the second uncertainty: For decades, U.S. central bank heads Greenspan, Bernanke & Co. were the patrons of the stock markets. Every time there was a crash, they responded with interest rate cuts. This time, however, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell wants to raise interest rates without regard to plummeting stock prices. Is he bluffing or not? If you knew, you could get rich quick. If Powell is not bluffing and continues on his course, then the signs point to deflation.

Just as not all prices will rise at the same time, they will not fall at the same time. Some will fall immediately, others later or not at all. Pizza maker Enzo certainly won't roll back his price increases. But an oil price of more than $100 a barrel may be just a memory by the end of the year. Maybe it will only be at forty by then. Yes: deflation is a good thing. At least for those who don't have stocks.


by Stefan Frank for AdG

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

The current explosion of inflationrates is not only coming from any "monetary policy", but also from a wanted productivity destruction that is immensely increasing the real costs of the entire economy. Ideology further demands to constantly increase costs for vital factors that define the existential fundament of millions and millions of citizens in our country. These wanted destructions are not even given up when being confronted by additional external crisis. Things get bend until they must break. So nobody complain please when at the end an ear-shattering knacking sound knocks your consciousness out - the bang and the subsequent numbness are only logical.


Gerd Held writes for AdG:


Among the most elementary things that determine the stability of a country and the cohesion of its society are prices. Their steadiness is the foundation on which people's trust, diligence and staying power are built. If a radical change occurs here, with the general price level suddenly rising sharply, this leads to a profound shaking of a country's economic, governmental and cultural architecture. Other crises, which just a moment ago seemed to be the greatest threat, then suddenly seem strangely distant. A wave of inflation touches people much more closely, it intervenes much more directly in their everyday lives. And it has a much broader impact. It devalues not only money, but also labor, the value added by companies, and the performance of state infrastructures. And this is especially true if the new price level is expected to remain in perpetuity.

All this applies to the wave of inflation that has gradually built up over the past few years and is now sweeping across many countries - including highly developed countries - with great force. It has not yet reached its peak. Many price increases have already occurred in raw materials and intermediate products, but have not yet been reflected in the prices of the final products. And already at this stage, there is no element visible that could eventually bring prices back to their old levels. The current wave of inflation is a profound and permanent change. It is as if the whole country is being moved to "worse ground" all at once.

There are numerous weasel words in our time that mean everything and nothing through thoughtless use. One such weasel word is "inflation," which is used to describe the current wave of inflation. This is intended to cover any increase in the price of goods - without providing any information about what this increase in price is based on.

Thus, an important distinction disappears: On the one hand, there is the price increase which is due to excessive money multiplication. In other words, it is due to a change in the relationship between money and goods. Undoubtedly, this is an element in the current wave of inflation, caused by the cheap money policy of the central banks. But on the other hand, a wave of inflation can also be rooted in changes in the real economy - that is, in goods and the conditions of their production. When conditions deteriorate, costs rise, and this is reflected in prices. When they improve, prices fall. In either direction, the changes can be very large, and they can cut across an entire economy. A price revolution based on better production conditions makes economic life easier. But a price revolution based on worsening production conditions makes it more difficult and can go so far as to bankrupt businesses, entire industries and infrastructures. Certain goods then not only become extremely expensive, but are no longer available at all. A price revolution is then the harbinger of a loss of substance in the real economy. Such a devastating price revolution is taking place in our present time.

The most conspicuous part of the current wave of inflation is energy prices. It is already foreseeable that households, businesses and government institutions will see their energy costs double or even triple this year. Energy costs affect all sectors and industries - and all stages of the value creation process. Energy is needed as drive energy in means of transport and mechanical machines, as process energy in chemical material conversion and preservation (food), as household energy for heating and cooking, as lighting energy in private and public spaces. And digitization has opened up a whole new field of medial energy use and increased the consumption of energy yet again. Thus, an increase in the cost of energy is affecting the national economy and government activity across the board.


Quite obviously, the sharp rise in energy prices is not (or only to a small extent) based on demonetization through "cheap money" and an inflation of the money supply in circulation. No, it is based on fundamental changes in the conditions of energy production. The conditions are made more difficult. But what is the aggravation? Has a sudden doom befallen the earth and humanity, causing energy resources to become less available or production facilities to fail? Or does the deterioration result from certain decisions? Is it consciously and willingly accepted or even actively pursued? The latter is apparently the case when one thinks of the "climate rescue," which is justified with the thesis of a "climate crisis" that is supposed to be so dangerous that it justifies the elimination of essential energy sources and a drastic increase in the price of energy. And now, in the Ukraine crisis, "Putin's Russia" is said to be such a world-threatening enemy that one of the largest energy countries on earth is to be eliminated. In view of such justifications, it becomes clear that we are dealing with a deep intervention in the production conditions of energy that have been developed over decades and centuries. With an intervention that significantly lowers the productivity of energy production and distribution. And there is no element visible that could allow a return to the old price level in this set framework.

It is clear that such a deterioration of real conditions cannot be countered by changes in the quantity or value of money. A policy of cheap money can at most mask and conceal the deterioration for a time. But it does not reach the fundamental problem. To reach it, one has to go down into the "engine room" of a country, into its sphere of production, where there are hard physical-technical realities. One must clarify what the new hardness of conditions is that drives costs.

A good has a price only if it is scarce. Goods that are infinitely available have no price. Scarcity forms the - often unspoken - background of the movements of supply and demand. Scarcity initially appears as a conflict between natural givens and human needs. But there is a factor that mitigates this first, raw scarcity and relaxes its constraints: that factor is civilization. A civilization can greatly expand (with labor, knowledge, capital, infrastructures...) the original narrowness of the world. These margins are the material basis of our freedom. But this mitigating factor is also limited. There is a scarcity of labor and labor resources, a civilizational scarcity. However, this scarcity is considerably milder than the scarcity in a world without material-technical civilization. This sounds very sober, but in the end it is about great, precious achievements. It is about fundamental goods on which people's existence depends - including their motivation for work and commitment. It is a question of the prosperity and decline of cities and landscapes, of entire countries and societies. The significance of a level of civilization that has been reached becomes suddenly visible in devastating price revolutions: All of a sudden, what was tacitly believed to be secure is shaken.

Now the price we have to pay for a scenario in which we are exposed to maximum threats and there can only be a maximum rescue policy with drastic interventions becomes visible. We have been put in this scenario with the proclamation of ever new "major crises." With it, there are no more trade-offs in politics, but only absolute priorities and imperatives. In the case of the "climate crisis," a substantial portion of energy production is to be first made more expensive and then shut down in order to prevent the "planet from overheating." This is considered an absolute imperative, more important than any energy productivity. In the case of the "Ukraine crisis," the elimination of fossil fuels is to be accelerated even further - even though no viable alternative is available. All the same, compared to the absolutely set external danger, the achievements of modern energy production are secondary. They must be sacrificed. This principle was already followed in the German decision to phase out nuclear energy - after the Fukushima accident. There was no concrete danger connection between Fukushima and the operation of German nuclear power plants.

The current wave of energy prices is the logical consequence of a policy that works with extreme threat scenarios. Three "greatest possible dangers" are now present: a nuclear power plant catastrophe, an imminent overheating of the planet, a threat of world war by a "mad" dictator. But the extremism of the conjured dangers has little to do with the facts and much to do with feelings and assumptions. The maximum dangers thus generated are not amenable to objective consideration.

Thus, every policy of absolute imperatives also has its turning point: The more its devastating consequences for the national economy and civilization become apparent, the inclination to weigh things up after all grows: Are the sacrifices and losses really in reasonable proportion to the dangers? Thus, once again, the realization will grow that the wave of inflation is the result of a completely one-sided perception and prioritization. A case of political extremism.

In such a situation, counterforces quite inevitably develop. With each new price surge and with each new industry that is hit by it, more critical questions arise. Where will the ever-increasing threat scenarios lead? How did we get on this path in the first place? And how did we get to the point where we are ruining our industries that once worked so well and gave Europe such an important foothold?

So we could be in for an exciting contest. Of course, there will be no less attempts to get people to accept growing costs and sacrifices with scare stories and rosy rescue tales. You can tell by the way political statements and news stories are now trying hard to keep the public in suspense with a daily show of threats and rescues, of bad and good. In contrast, the camp of deliberative reason does not have to participate in such an escalating race. It does not have to forcibly push anything forward or overplay anything. It can trust that the point will come when the politics of absolute imperatives becomes increasingly hollow and at the same time has such serious consequences that more and more people will switch to the camp of the deliberative.

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung of April 13 reports on the results of the monthly representative sentiment survey conducted by the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research for the FAZ. The March survey focuses in particular on energy policy issues against the background of the wave of inflation. This issue has now become the most important topic of concern for Germans. The survey shows how much skepticism has grown as to whether fossil fuels can be replaced in the foreseeable future by alternative energy sources such as solar and wind. 86 percent of respondents say there will be difficulties with energy supply in the next few years. In 2019, that figure had been just 26 percent. Now, only 26 percent believe that the supply could be completely switched to alternative energies by 2050. There has been a real change of mood in the assessment of the role of nuclear energy: as recently as February 2022, 42 percent of respondents were in favor of shutting down nuclear power plants as planned. 35 percent were in favor of continued operation. In March 2022, the votes in favor of continued operation had risen to 57 percent of those surveyed, while only 25 percent wanted to stay with shutdown. And the Ukraine crisis? 57 percent of respondents favored continuing to buy oil and gas from Russia, while only 30 percent were in favor of an immediate embargo.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Jimbuna]

On a personal note.....

Received an email from my energy supplier (EDF) a few days ago informing me that my current duel fuel deal ends on June 30th therefore my monthly direct debit will increase from the current £70 to £163

[Skybird]

A random find in a video lecture I watched today.




"In 1990-91, when comunism fell, the West had 80% of the world economy, purchasing power parity, and the rest of the world 20. Today, the West has basic purchasing power parity of 36%, and the rest of the world 64. That is, we have seen a massive shift. 88% of the world's population lives in non-Western countries. These countries control 70% of the world's foreign exchange reserves. What claim can the West then still make to moralize and determine the world against the backdrop of the changes in these coefficients that have taken place in the structures of this world? "

Volker Hellmeyer, former chief analyst of the Bremer Landesbank

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

The International Energy Agency warns of fuel shortages during summer holiday seasons far more drastical than those seen during the oil crisis in the 70s.

[Skybird]

Does it finally slowly sink into their minds? It better would. I am predicting these things since years. My only question to them thus would is - what took you so long...?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/02/business/energy-crisis-inflation/index.html


The global economy has largely been able to withstand surging energy prices so far. But prices could continue to rise to unsustainable levels as Europe attempts to wean itself off Russian oil and, potentially, gas. Supply shortages could lead to some difficult choices in Europe, including rationing.

Joe McMonigle, secretary general of the International Energy Forum, said he agrees with this depressing forecast from the IEA.

"We have a serious problem around the world that I think policymakers are just waking up to. It's kind of a perfect storm," McMonigle, whose group serves as a go-between for energy producing and consuming nations, told CNN in a phone interview.

The extent of that perfect storm -- underinvestment, strong demand and supply disruptions from the war -- will have wide-reaching consequences, potentially threatening the economic recovery from Covid-19, exacerbating inflation (http://www.cnn.com/2022/05/30/business/gas-prices-memorial-day/index.html), fueling social unrest and undermining efforts to save the planet from global warming.

Birol warned of supply bottlenecks of gasoline and diesel, especially in Europe, as well as rationing of natural gas next winter in Europe.
"It is a crisis for which the world is woefully unprepared," said Robert McNally, who served as a top energy adviser to former US President George W. Bush.

[Skybird]

I often implied, expressed, said that the Green's wanted economic policy is an intentional turn towards economical desaster. Its not just a consequence they are just not aware of - they WANT it. That is one of the reasons why they are so extremely dangerous. The following essay describes it specificially for the German Greens, but I am certain you have parrallel thinking amongst the green party in other nations, too.


Deindustrialization and the Shrinking Economy. Consequences of green economic policy

Antony P. Mueller

From 22 thousand members in 1982, the membership of the party grouping Bündnis 90/Grüne has now risen to over 125 thousand. Even though this number is only 0.15% of Germany's population, this party is in the process of shaping German economic policy and directing the country toward a presumably more ecological economy through coercive regulation. The question arises as to what specific economic policy ideas are being pursued here. Who exerts formative influence on the ideas of this grouping when it comes to the "ecological transformation" of the economy?

In the current federal government, the Alliance 90/Green party provides the vice chancellor and holds the ministerial posts of Foreign Affairs, Economy and Climate Protection, Food and Agriculture, Family, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth, and Environment. In Germany's population of 83.24 million, 6.47 million voted Green in the last federal election. That is 7.8%. Although this party grouping is thus not voted for by over 92% of the population, it lays claim to a determining influence on Germany's fortunes.

At the same time, little is known about what concrete ideas prevail about what the ecological turnaround should look like in concrete terms.

What form of economy is envisaged to cope with the supposed global warming? The first thing to note is that, for the Greens, it is a foregone conclusion that the global economy is on the verge of collapse because of climate change. Starting from this premise, the question is how to respond to this challenge. Which authors can be named who provide an answer to this question from a green perspective?

If you look around to see who is decisively shaping the economic policy ideas of ecological circles, you very quickly come across Ulrike Herrmann. Like hardly anyone else, Ms. Herrmann - since 2000 editor at the daily newspaper taz and its economics correspondent - shapes the economic worldview of the Green clientele. As an active lecture traveler and present in many debates, the activist knows how to communicate the vision of the ecological turnaround to her many supporters. Her influence on the ecological movement can hardly be underestimated. She is an avid writer, was awarded the Keynes Society Prize for Economic Journalism in 2015 for her contributions to the taz newspaper, and received the Otto Brenner Prize in 2019 "for her critical and trenchant economic journalism with a good sense of the welfare state."

Ms. Hermann is taken very seriously by her following. She is, as it were, the "chief economist" of the Green movement, although she holds no official party office. With her nice way of speaking, she knows how to convince her followers in a catchy way and in simple language that the end of capitalism has come. Ms. Herrmann avoids in-depth analyses and complex argumentation. But this is precisely how she has monopolized the Greens' economic worldview in her favor. Ulrike Herrmann is a master of the echo chamber.

Ulrike Herrmann's basic thesis is that capitalist economic growth is not possible in a finite world because production reaches absolute limits. There is the environmental limit and the raw material limit. The environment is overloaded and soon the raw materials will be used up to the last. But before that, there is already a climate catastrophe that will make life on the planet impossible. It must be acted fast.

Before the middle of the century, Germany should become climate neutral. The way to achieve this is the introduction of an "ecological war economy". Private property can be formally retained, but the state will give strict guidelines for consumption and production. The market will be suspended, prices will be controlled, and a system of quantity rationing must be installed.

For Ms. Hermann, capitalism is an economic system that both produces growth but also cannot exist without growth. However, since, according to Ulrike Herrmann, there are "absolute" limits to growth, capitalism is also finite and must necessarily give way to another system, which she calls a "circular economy."

It is not just a matter of rising temperatures, but a whole series of other disasters are linked to the climate catastrophe: the greatest species extinction of all time, the massive loss of fertile soils, an increasing shortage of fresh water. The world has little time left to stop global warming of several degrees. Failure to do so will result in the collapse of the Amazon forest and the thawing of areas of Siberian permafrost. If temperatures continue to rise, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is just as inevitable as that of parts of Antarctica, resulting in a rise in sea level of twelve to fifteen meters.

A trained journalist and historian by training, she knows how to convince her congregation of the need for the German economy to shrink. In order to move from today's growth economy to a circular economy, an intermediate stage is necessary, which must now be installed: a "war economy shrinking economy." In concrete terms, this means, among other things: Stopping air travel, abolishing individual transportation and cutting back on food, especially meat consumption. The model for their ideas is the English wartime economy. Just as England did at the beginning of World War II when it was a question of converting the economy as quickly as possible from a peacetime to a wartime economy, so now the current consumption- and growth-oriented capitalist economy is to be converted to an "ecological circular economy". Investment and consumption must be aligned with government requirements. Prices will be controlled, the market suspended. The aim is to direct all economic activity towards the goal of reducing "CO2 emissions".

Mrs. Ulrike Herrmann obviously wants the systematic deindustrialization of Germany. But that's not all: services associated with capitalist growth, such as banking and insurance, the advertising industry and trade fair logistics, would also have to disappear. This dismantling does not go along with mass unemployment according to their conceptions, however, since the ecological agriculture could offer sufficient jobs. However, she admits that this is not compatible with today's income levels. Wages and salaries will fall drastically, and that is a good thing, because there will be less consumption.

According to the ecosocialists, capitalism is not viable. Its basic constellation is the interaction of technology, industrialization and greenhouse gases. For the eco-Marxists, the basic problem of capitalism is not class struggle, but the "exploitation" of nature.

In summary, Ulrike Herrmann's thesis, and thus probably also widely accepted by the Greens as a party and its supporters, is that capitalism means growth, but because constant growth is not possible in a finite world, the capitalist growth economy must be replaced by an ecological circular economy. The way to get there is through a forced shrinking economy, which requires the use of war economy methods. The goal is to drastically reduce production and consumption in order to bring consumption in line with the ecological standards of one's worldview.

For ecosocialists, the coming man-made climate catastrophe, caused quasi by "capitalism," is a certainty. Epistemologically, this thesis cannot be proven a priori, either in advance or in retrospect, i.e. not even if warming were to occur.[1] Rather, it is a kind of dogma that is no longer considered questionable in the German leading media, and even critics of the dogma who remain objective are meanwhile ostracized from public discourse as "climate deniers" - regardless of their arguments. For this reason, it makes little sense to address this thesis. The present critique aims rather at proving that even if such a climate catastrophe would occur, the argumentation of Mrs. Herrmann and the green anti-capitalists following her is based on wrong theses and thus leads to wrong conclusions.

Mrs. Ulrike Herrmann has obviously studied Marx and perhaps also Adam Smith and a little Keynes, but beyond that she has hardly dealt with other economic theories and has certainly not thought about the Austrian School or even neoclassicism. Following the limited horizon of her intellectual foster fathers, Herrmann concludes that the life span of capitalism is limited. Here she follows Marx's thesis of the tendential fall of the rate of profit. According to this, competition drives capitalists to overaccumulate capital. This leads to ever diminishing returns. The rate of profit falls all the more as the concentration of capital increases. Capitalism is creating its own grave.

The law of diminishing marginal returns is part of the standard repertoire of economic theory and has long been well known from agriculture. Ecologists are now transferring this principle to the entire economy and using it to justify the limits to growth. In doing so, however, they fail to recognize a number of points: First, it is these diminishing marginal returns that prevent over-expansion. As soon as loss threatens, the entrepreneur will stop expanding. This is why there are so many small and medium-sized enterprises in the market economy, in addition to the few large enterprises. Second, a diminishing marginal return on the productive assets employed drives enterprises to seek new uses of capital that yield higher returns. This is what is known as technical progress. This is not just technology in the conventional sense of the word, but all operational measures that increase total factor productivity. Innovation is the hallmark of modern capitalism, not more and more production of the same goods with the same means of production.

Eco-socialists talk about scarcity of raw materials, ignoring the fact that scarcity is universal and is the essence of economic activity. If there were no scarcity, there would be no need for economies. In a market economy, prices are indicators of scarcity and also serve as an incentive to deal with scarcity economically. Therefore, because the theses of the ecosocialists are based on the threat of an increased scarcity of raw materials, a rational assessment would have to support market-based pricing all the more.

Another error of the ecological anti-capitalists follows the previous one: The belief that people are only ever concerned with more production and more consumption. Rather, it is the case that productivity growth also serves to demand more leisure time instead of more goods. What characterizes modern capitalism is ongoing productivity progress and not, as the ecosocialists try to make you believe, ever more production. Technological progress reduces the consumption of resources, and higher productivity allows for more muse.

The fact that Ulrike Herrmann certainly knows how to write and is an excellent speaker should not obscure the fact that her main thesis about the limits to growth, is deceptively false. Instead of repeating the same errors over and over again and parading through the country with the same theses, the "chief economist of the Greens" would do well to look into economic theory beyond Smith, Marx and Keynes. Then she would have to realize that not less capitalism, but more capitalism is the solution - and that regardless of whether a climate catastrophe is really imminent or not. The best way to guard against an environmental crisis is through high economic performance. High productivity is the basis for mastering this and the other challenges. But this is precisely the specific achievement of "capitalism", i.e. the unconstrained exchange of goods and services using production capital, as opposed to all other economic systems. Whether the announced climate catastrophe becomes reality or not, the more market-oriented the economic system is in the aforementioned sense, the better one will be able to cope with it. Conversely, ecosocialism leads in any case to an economic and human catastrophe - even if the climatic crisis should fail to materialize.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

https://www.misesde.org/2022/06/deindustrialisierung-und-schrumpfwirtschaft-konsequenzen-der-gruenen-wirtschaftspolitik/

One must be afraid for this country, and for one's own life, one's own prosperity, one's own freedom. Personally I am deeply worried, extremely concerned, and utmost alarmed - since many years. Germany and Germans need a devastating collective shock experience in a bid to push some reason and mental sanity back into their heads. So far Germans take the echoes from events somewhere else, start their imagination machinery and then react to the drama of their fantasies, mistaking this with "adressing the reality". This country needs a shocking, desastrous experience (that it does not hear of happenngn somewhere else, but here), that people do not fantasize about how it feels for the effected people far away, but that lets them feel the pain themselves - real and undeniable.

When they need to fight for their very survival and fear and pain and agony is shaking them, maybe this then leaves them no more too much free time to wallow in stupid nutcase fantasies like these.

I always said so: the Greens are not just about ecology, they are about socialist-communist ideology and a destruction of the civil and burgeoise order there is.

[Skybird]

FOCUS: There are two culprits for the destruction of prosperity - neither of them sits in Moscow.

https://p6.focus.de/img/fotos/id_107946749/ezb-steingart.jpg?im=Resize%3D%28630%2C372%29&hash=04b76ec53bf9a0bdf766267a8bc3f91235cfdc9e895ba 51d2ea6a6f4c4a951a6

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the ECB has pumped an additional six trillion euros into the market. Experts speak of a money overhang that is now being unloaded in inflation. A dangerous chain reaction has long since set in.

"Peace is the highest good" is the current slogan of the "Greens". But violating monetary stability, one would like to shout at them, is no trivial offense either. It remains Putin's war, but it is our inflation.

Two culprits can be named for the destruction of prosperity and purchasing power that has now become obvious, neither of whom lives in Moscow. Possibly this is even the reason why none of the governing parties wants to talk seriously to the citizen about the cause and effect of this inflation of the century.

Both hands of every government politician are currently pointing indignantly in the direction of the Kremlin, so that there is no hand left for reaching for one's own nose.

War and inflation have one thing in common. Only the state can start both and only the state can end them. From the point of view of its critics, capitalism may be evil and omnipresent. But waging war, printing money and fixing interest rates, it cannot do that by its own power and glory.

So when we talk about inflation, we are talking about the core competence of the state. It owns the central bank. It appoints the ECB president and the head of the Bundesbank. The consequences of inflation are of utmost relevance to Germans economically, politically and socially. Narrowing the political debate to the question "heavy or light weapons for Ukraine?" therefore means trivializing and ultimately fictionalizing politics.

The inflation victim, who is thankfully different from the war victim, is physically unharmed. The employer's salary transfer looks the same as always. The bank statement from the savings account or stock portfolio shows no peculiarities.

But at the latest at the store counter, in the car dealership and travel agency, at the gas station and also when paying rent and ancillary rental costs, it is noticeable that something has started to slip here, robbing money of its stability and many people of their certainty about the future.

Which brings us to the culprits who have worked hand in hand for years. For the European debt politicians burned those trillions that were printed for them by the European central banks. What-Ever-It-Takes was the rallying cry of a crazy time. The Americans would call those involved "Partners in Crime."

The fact is that since the global financial crisis of 2008, the ECB has pumped an additional six trillion euros into the market. This means that the amount of central bank money in the euro area has increased more than sixfold since 2008. The lion's share of this money is not matched by any economic value, i.e., neither additional sales nor additional profits, which is why experts also speak of a money overhang.
"Five trillion euros are powder kegs in the ECB's basement".

This money overhang is now being discharged in inflation. Professor Hans-Werner Sinn puts this overhang at five trillion euros and says: "The five trillion euros are powder kegs in the basement of the ECB. Due to the effect of rising demand from the states that have taken on debt, some of the barrels have caught fire. The spark was the supply tightening by Corona."

All the promises made by the German government - Lindner: tackling rising prices is "top priority" - are meant to reassure, but can't help. The force of the events is too great for that. A chain reaction has long since been set in motion. More explosive devices are on their way to ignite the remaining powder kegs:

Explosive device 1: The markets for energy cannot calm down like this. The war in Europe, the monopoly-like structure of the oil companies and Germany's dependence on imported energy, exacerbated by the simultaneity of the coal and nuclear phase-out, mean the perfect storm for price developments.

Explosive 2: The markets for raw materials and semi-finished goods have tightened, due to the coincidence of pandemic and war. In many places, supply chains are still broken. Global demand and global supply do not currently match in many product groups. Plus 33.5 percent over April 2021 prices for semi-finished goods were just measured.

Explosive device 3: The victims of price developments to date will do everything in their power, at least where they are organized in trade unions, to defend themselves against the reduction in their standard of living and the dimming of their future prospects. The heads of the individual unions, above all IG Metall, have no other chance than to go to the barricades on behalf of their members. The price spiral is driving the wage spiral. And before long, the wage spiral will drive the price spiral.

Explosive device 4: The government debtors are not very insightful. They are in the process of further expanding spending financed on credit - in southern Europe, but not only there. In Germany, too, social relief packages are being put together without regard for financial losses, coal and nuclear power plants are being taken off the grid and the largest debt-financed rearmament program in German history is being launched.

Explosive device 5: In this situation, the ECB would have to increase the value of money, i.e. raise interest rates. But that is exactly what it does not dare to do. It is the prisoner of its stock and bond-buying policy with an associated zero interest rate policy, because the highly indebted countries of Greece (193 percent of GDP), Italy (150 percent of GDP), France (112 percent) and Portugal (127 percent) can no longer bear their debts at a significantly higher interest rate. They are not productive enough. They are addicted to cheap money. An effective fight against inflation will trigger a deep recession for them - and possibly not only for them.

Explosive device 6: There is currently no politician in Germany who, equipped with expertise and personal credibility, could seek a serious dialog with the people. Christian Lindner is not a second Karl Schiller, and Robert Habeck is not a new Otto Graf Lambsdorff. But someone would have to talk to the voters about performance and productivity and thus also about the impending overburdening of the German social product.

Conclusion: The miraculous increase in money is reaching its natural limits. The German prosperity of the past 15 years was the best prosperity that money could buy.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)





My impression is that many people still have not understood the real scale and dimension of desaster that is coming upon us now. And a few decision-makers are so frozen by fear of realization that they just function in autopilot mode, staying on course for deaster, because they are frozen, paralysed in horror and reality denial. What has - finally - found us now, will become very, very bad.



Add to this the damn sociological, Green-marxist (thats what it is) agenda that intentionally wants to destroy industrialization in Germany, and wants a destabilising of the structural integrity of the middle class to get if flushed away in riots and being replaced with marxist collectivism. No more private property, no more rights to claim self-responsibility, a merciless collectivization of everybody and everything and destroying of everbyody rejecting to "voluntarily" participate. State-given mass movements as mandatory citizens' duty.


Personally, I do not take it for granted anymore that I will still have an economic-financial basis in a couple of years from now on. Ten years, maybe 15 if I am lucky, then the brown stuff will have reached the ceiling. And that is just the economical aspect, not including the for ideological reasons tuned dysfunctional minds of our decision makers whose predecessors brought us to this pass.


You may hope for some randomness gifting you unpredictably and unexpectedly some luck born out of chaos - but let go all reasonable hope. There is no reason to be hopeful. A mess does not suddenly evaporate into air just because you pray and hope it would. It never does. The world is about to learn why the Germans are so traumatized by the sound of this word, "inflation". Its one of the very few things where they indeed are right. And still, even Germany continue to spill fuel and gasoline into the fire. We could and should know it better.

[Skybird]

ECB finally considers to recognise that there might be a problem with inflation. Thats why they annnoucned a plan to increase interest rates for the first time since 11 years by 25 points. Inflation in the Eurozone is at over 800 points.

Way too little and way too late.

Involuntarily funny was how Gangsterlagarde explained where inflation wasc oming from. Its all the war's fault. The past 1.5 decades of criminally irresponsible fiscal policies, illegal state financing, flooding the market with new "money", and self-suicidal debts boosting, were not mentioned, have nothing to do with it.

She also threatened that the cartel stands ready to reverse this new policiy in case the southern European states and their high debt regimes wallowing in cheap money do not find it likeable.

Maybe penalty fees on your savings will become a thing of the past soon. But beyond that, money savings still get plundered. Inflation rate is currently over 33 times as high as the promised new interest rates. Costs will remain high, the global logistics disruptions will ae just starting to peek in Europe, Hamburg harbour said they do not expect a bettering of the situation before 18 months have passed, and only if nothing else gets added in desasters. With this policy, the ECB has no chance to catch inflation and bring the ocean of money ir ha sprinted back into the stables.

And maybeprobably that is exactly what Gangsterlagarde wants.

[Skybird]

FOCUS

Rising inflation is devaluing people's money. Politicians have done everything to make this happen. Now they would have to intervene boldly, but that would cost every politician his career. No one dares. There is one example of this.

A backroom deal between statesmen, a treaty that is not worth the paper it is written on, and politicians who shy away from making unpopular decisions - these are the real reasons for galloping inflation in the euro area.

These birth defects of the euro combined with the effects of the global pandemic and a war that is causing energy prices to skyrocket is the cocktail that is allowing inflation to flourish. Trippy steps by the European Central Bank, which now wants to raise interest rates to curb inflation, will not be enough to stop it.

The backroom deal was one that the fathers of the euro, French President François Mitterand and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, engineered in a kind of bromance common to the era and to Kohl in particular.

It went like this: The guardian of the euro, the European Central Bank, sits in Frankfurt and is independent on paper. Kohl enforced that. But even then, its boss was not allowed to be German. That is still the case today, and Mitterrand enforced it. For the Germans, as the French president knew, have an aversion to inflation, although it is inflation that makes it easier to run up debts, which is what every politician needs if he wants to be elected thanks to his good deeds.

Mitterand's calculation worked out. Kohl's hope, on the other hand, that by being formally independent and based in Germany he had done enough for an ECB that was supposed to have monetary stability as its primary objective was not fulfilled.

Instead, the ECB got caught between the mills of national politics: on the one hand, the countries, primarily in the south of Europe, which were accustomed to inflating away their debts, and on the other hand, the countries, primarily in the north, which were striving to keep budgets under control to the extent that debts remained financeable.

Because it was clear that the two systems did not fit under one hat or in one currency, the member states of the euro invented the EU convergence criteria and wrote them down in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. Above all, it states that government debt may not exceed 60 percent of gross domestic product. This criterion has been constantly broken since it came into force.
Free webinar: How to invest money with real estate now

Greece and Italy have always been far from it, Spain and France have now reached about twice the debt level. And Germany, where the debt brake is suspended first because of the Corona crisis and now because of the Ukraine crisis, or - as in the case of the new 100 billion debt for the Bundeswehr - may be circumvented, has also lost sight of the goal.

Dealing with debt differently, however, leads to tensions in a common currency area, because at some point the rich will have to pay for the poor. The debt crisis in the euro area was born, from which the countries could no longer find their way out on their own, which is why the then Italian ECB President Mario Draghi in 2012 pressed out his famous "What ever it takes" with a tight lip.

In the final analysis, it meant that the ECB would continue to print euro bills until everyone was able to keep their debts under control. The "whatever it takes" to which Draghi committed himself for the sake of saving the euro was redemption at the time. From today's perspective, it is the origin of galloping inflation.

Because the money supply in Europe increased by leaps and bounds. Since the debt crisis, it has increased sevenfold to around 8.8 trillion euros. Only a small part of this is justified by economic growth in the euro area. The rest comes from the printing press and has led to inflation in most asset classes: First in real estate, then in equities, and most recently in commodities.

Demand skyrocketed; all that money had to go somewhere. But when supplies became drastically tighter with the pandemic, consumer prices rose and all at once inflation became visible.

What happened next should never have been done by an ECB committed to price stability, but now it was taking revenge for the fact that Kohl had once created its formal independence and that no one could now interfere with it.

The ECB first turned two percent inflation into a "target corridor" of two percent and then into a "symmetrical inflation target" of two percent, which in the end means something like: It is enough to be below two percent for a few years, then a few years above it are not so bad. The fact that inflation tends to grow exponentially and can suddenly lapse from a leisurely pace into a gallop, like a horse running through its paces, did not matter to the ECB decision-makers, first around Draghi and then around his French successor Christine Lagarde.

If this was the first betrayal of price stability, the second followed on its heels. Again, it was politics that led the way, and again it was the ECB, which then let nothing and no one dissuade it from following. When the EU, under the leadership of its President Ursula von der Leyen, proclaimed the Green Deal and thus gave top priority to the goal of climate neutrality, the Governing Council of the ECB decided in July 2021 to also be driven by climate protection targets in its decisions.

The ECB accepted the fact that its sole mandate, namely to guarantee monetary stability, was being undermined, and the national governments even applauded. For them, this made it clear once and for all that the ECB would never thwart their plans.

Since then, national and EU-wide corona reconstruction programs worth billions have been launched. The ramping up of military spending in the EU member states and a subsidy of energy prices, as decided by most national EU parliaments, lead to further burdens worth billions, which can be financed as long as the ECB keeps interest rates low - but thus gives inflation free rein.

The manageable interest rate steps Lagarde has now announced are the compromise in a dilemma where, in reality, there are only ever two bad solutions.

Inflation rates such as the euro area and the U.S. are now experiencing were last seen at the end of the 1970s. The then U.S. President Jimmy Carter put the tough economist Paul Volcker at the head of the Federal Reserve as his last reserve. As one of his first official acts, he drastically raised interest rates to as high as 20 percent.

Inflation, which had been as high as 15 percent at the time, immediately collapsed. The U.S., however, slid into a recession that ultimately swept away even Jimmy Charter. So far, no one in Europe has been able or willing to take this step.


-------


I expect inflation to rise deeply into the two digit range (could be in the 20s) - and stay there for years to come.


At the same time more wars in the world. More military spending. More famines. Less sweet water. Megalomaniac climate "deals" to destroy industrial Western capacities. Democracy in retreat globally, totalitarian regimes marching stronger and louder. Left-leaning messiahs will take over even more of the West, and make things even worse as a result.



This will not become a happy century.

[Skybird]

Endgame for the Euro? I think the author is right. The going will get tough now for the ordinary man.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/finanzen/ezb-zinswende-ein-scheitern-mit-ansage_id_107967293.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp


ECB interest rates (blue) and consumer prices in Germany (red)

https://p6.focus.de/img/finanzen/id_107967432/grafik-3-gegenueberstellung-des-ezb-leitzinssatzes-und-den-verbraucherpreisen.jpg?im=Resize%3D%28630%2C408%29&impolicy=perceptual&quality=medium&hash=a9399283f582ebd8146913b280fa42e37a728806f8d93 8bc4cd210db5bde2c0b


The ECB raised the interest by a gfearful, hesitent .25%. That is pathetic, any everythjignt he eCb now can do, will be too late, too little. The sin lies in the criminal fiscal policy of the past one and a half decade.

There is no rescue and no escape from that murderous heritage. And no, its not Russia' fault alone. The inflation in Europe already was above 5% before the war broke out.

The good news is: the EU's reality-denying green deal dogma and all that stuff the Greens want to enforce in Germany, will not happen: at least as long as they do not want civil war and bloody riots in the cities and thus establish a hardcore police dictatorship. The money system will collapse before. Mark my words.

Fasten your seat belts, please, it's getting rough. It's all downhill from here on.

[Skybird]

7 Factors form the perfect storm, writes the FOCUS:

Novelist Sebastian Junger landed a world bestseller and director Wolfgang Petersen repeated this on the big screen: " The Perfect Storm " is the story of a fishing boat that gets caught up in a weather phenomenon off the east coast of the USA that occurs at most once every 100 years: a low-pressure area moves from the mainland to the sea, a high pressure system from Canada pushes cold air southward and Hurricane Grace swirls warm and humid remnants across the ocean. The men on the boat "Andrea Gail" fight the forces of nature and lose. For George Clooney, it was one more tragic hero role. The fascinating thing about the title is its contrariness: even evil can be perfect.

The result of many ingredients brewing in the financial markets

Economists have therefore adopted this title when describing the result of many ingredients brewing in the world's financial markets so uniquely that more than one ship can sink. The perfect storm they mean can make people poor and drive them into the street, it can push companies to the wall, it can drag entire economies into the abyss. And of all things, there is now talk of such a perfect storm. U.S. star economist Kenneth Rogoff already has it on his radar. He speaks of the danger of a simultaneous recession in Europe, China and the USA. Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) is warning of a global recession. He says there are currently several interconnected crises: "The high inflation, the energy crisis, the food shortage and the climate crisis." In addition, he said, "the world is in danger of disintegrating into power blocs."

Bleak forecast from star investor George Soros

Observers will never forget the appearance of 91-year-old star investor George Soros at the recently concluded World Economic Forum in Davos. With heavy steps, he made his way to the lectern. His often rather bleak predictions - they have all come to pass, some worse than even Soros could have imagined. In hushed tones, he addresses the threat of totalitarian regimes like Russia and China. He, who survived the Holocaust, addresses his world audience in a brittle voice: What is coming now "may not survive our civilization."

Seven ingredients for the perfect storm

Unlike in the novel, the "perfect storm" that Rogoff and Habeck are worried about and that makes Soros look black has not three but seven ingredients, which are currently intertwining with varying degrees of force. They are:

1. pandemic

It was at the beginning of the hot phase of the storm. The world had not experienced anything like it since the Spanish flu more than 100 years ago. In the age of MRIs and heart transplants, people around the world were once again dying from a virus. The enforced lockdowns weakened economies and government coffers. New variants of the virus keep getting ahead of the vaccines, causing renewed lockdowns at neuralgic points of world trade like Shanghai. The danger has not been averted; it has merely slipped to the periphery of perception. Already, infection rates are rising again. Popular virologists such as Christian Drosten are warning of the next wave of coronas after the summer vacations.

2. war

Unimaginable for most people living in the European Union and dreaming of perpetual peaceful coexistence on their continent since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Russia invades Ukraine on February 24, 2022, unleashing not only a military but also an economic war. At stake are energy deliveries to the West and grain shipments to the entire world, which suddenly come to a standstill coming from Russia.

Germany, one of the main consumers of Russian energy supplies and one of the few countries in the world to have scrapped its nuclear power plants, is sliding unprepared into an energy crisis the likes of which have not been seen since the oil price shock of 1973. The German government has sounded the alarm for gas supplies. If even less gas comes from Russia in the next few weeks, businesses will have to close, and homes will remain cold in the winter. The high energy costs are hitting Germany particularly hard, Europe a little less so, and the rest of the world hardly at all. Europe is losing out in international competition.

3. inflation

More than ten years ago, when the high debt levels of some countries in the EU threatened to blow up the euro, the then central bank president Mario Draghi announced his "Whatever it takes" policy. The intention behind this was to rev up the printing press until there was enough money in the market to finance government debt.

This, together with energy prices and the consequences of pandemics, has driven inflation to a record high of currently more than eight percent. This means that on a salary of 50,000 euros net per year, the purchasing power for a family is reduced to 46,000 euros within a year. If they want to compensate for this, summer vacations, for example, fall flat. Dissatisfaction grows.

4. interest rates

Directly related to inflation is what the central banks prescribe as an antidote: rising interest rates. Not a bad idea in itself - but it comes too late.

The consequence: Either central banks raise interest rates as hesitantly as in the EU, in which case the remedy does not work against inflation. Or they will be more aggressive, as in the U.S., in which case the interest rate hike will strangle economic growth because loans for investments will become too expensive. In the USA, there has never been a phase of rising interest rates that did not lead to a recession after twelve months at the latest.

5. labor market

Companies have long since noticed what is coming. Some can no longer afford the cost of energy, others are short of materials for their products, and sales are faltering. As a result, the labor market is turning. The labor shortage is turning into a labor surplus, at least in terms of what companies can still afford to hire during the crisis. The head of the German Federal Employment Agency, Detlef Scheele, warns: If Russian gas supplies were to fail, the risk with regard to jobs in Germany would be "currently very high".

The inflation rate in Germany is the highest it has been in 40 years. FOCUS Online therefore asks: Your everyday life consists only of saving? Do you really have to turn over every penny and are constantly on the lookout for ways to make a living more cheaply? We want to tell your story. Please write to us at mein-bericht@focus.de. Please briefly describe your situation in an email and also write us when we could contact you by phone regarding this in the next few days. Thank you very much.

He then believes that short-time work and a sharp rise in unemployment are likely. Things are also looking bleak on the other side of the Atlantic. Prominent investor and stock market expert Dirk Müller analyzes: "People, especially in the low-wage sector, are being laid off by the dozen. This comes in a situation where they are highly indebted and the interest on their debt is going through the roof." At the same time, there is still a shortage of skilled workers. Germany produces high school graduates on an assembly line, but craftsmen, IT specialists and technicians are lacking. Orders are left undone because no one can take care of them.

6. material bottlenecks

New cars from German manufacturers are still lined up on unused parking lots, missing a chip at a crucial point to get the electronics working. The delivery is stuck. The same picture elsewhere: the real estate industry, which has been spoiled by success for years, is suddenly feeling that no one wants to build anymore.

One reason: No one can calculate when and at what price building materials can be found. Either they are stuck in containers that cannot be unloaded in time due to the pandemic, or they have become so expensive due to the rise in energy costs that they are throwing every construction calculation out of kilter.

7. geostrategic danger

Russia's regime has become the enemy, and many are realizing that totalitarian and thus unpredictable structures like those in Moscow also prevail in Beijing. The leadership there is embroiled in a trade dispute with the U.S., pursuing a zero-covid strategy that is clutching the economy and dimming its decades-long prodigious growth rates to normal levels.

At the same time, it suppresses rebellious peoples in its giant empire, such as that of the Uyghurs, and shows the cruelty of which it is capable. All of this is leading to the greatest dislocations in its own country: The real estate market has collapsed. The two largest real estate developers in the giant empire are surviving only thanks to state aid. China is one of Germany's most important trading partners. So far, companies have been able to rely on it: If things don't go so well here in Germany, they'll go like hot cakes in China. But this is a thing of the past.

In the book "The Perfect Storm," which is based on true events, it is said that such a rare combination of factors created a situation that "could not possibly have been worse. The storm created waves ten stories high and wind speeds of 190 kilometers an hour. It whipped the sea to unimaginable heights, the likes of which few people on earth have ever seen." The next day, the haunting was over. The "Andrea Gail" and its crew, however, had disappeared from the surface.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[Skybird]

Do the price slumps show that the economy is coming apart at the seams and the financial system is in disarray? No, the opposite is the case. The system is starting to straighten up again. After a far too long period of financial engineering wizardry, gravity is prevailing. Thus, the years following the financial crisis from 2008 onward resembled a theater of illusion. What was performed was the great recklessness. Thanks to unlimited money printing and loans at zero cost, it seemed that everything the heart desired could be financed. That is now over.

The public may have long suspected that not everything in this theater was above board, that there was a lot of hocus-pocus involved. But it was convenient for politicians, central bankers and investors to indulge in the deception. Today, one has to realize: If something is too good to be true, it usually isn't. What is currently taking place is therefore not an irrational whim of the markets. Rather, we are witnessing the return of rationality and the bursting of various illusions.

-NZZ-

[mapuc]

Would this be part of the economical perfect storm ?

This was the worst first half for the market in 50 years and it’s all because of one thing — inflation

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/the-markets-worst-first-half-in-50-years-has-all-come-down-to-one-thing.html

Markus

[Skybird]

Would this be part of the economical perfect storm ?
>>This was the worst first half for the market in 50 years and it’s all because of one thing — inflation<<
Markus
Of course it is, inflation. It went up already before the war broke out. See point 3 in post two posts up.

[Jimbuna]

On a personal note: My Police pension rises in April each year at the rate of inflation calculated in the previous month of September, for some reason or rule I have never actually fully understood or bothered to enquire about.

My annual increase this April was 3.1% based on the previous September rate of inflation and despite the fact the April rate of inflation was 7% (current UK rate is about 9% and is expected to rise to at least 11% later this year)

Needless to say I'll be watching the inflation rate this coming September like a hawk.

[Skybird]

The Euro has dropped to parity with the dollar, for the first time since two decades (1 Euros=1,005 Dollar, 12-07-22 14:20LOC)


Usually that is good for an exporter like mGermany, but this time its ver ybad due to high inflation. The weak Euros means that imported goods become even more expensive, pushing prices upwards even further and thus fueling inflation.


Thank you, dear ECB. Your refusal to fight inflation as would be your mandatory and mandated legal obligation has helped so tremendously to brign us to this pass.



Instead the eCB yesterday gets rpeorted to have voiced it wants to push much harder for green deal obligations and ecological banking.



Im going out on a limb there, but I commit myself: the Euro will collapse in the forseeable future, within less than ten years. The Eurozone is no longer merely ripe: it is hopelessly overcooked and mushy. It was a criminally stupid idea from day one on.



Of course this fiscal-political desaster will not help Europe one bit to keep its position in the concert of the global big players.

[Jimbuna]

A single euro bought $0.998 on the foreign exchange market at 12:45 GMT, down by 0.4% in the day's trading.

[Skybird]

^ And US inflation up to 9.1% despite the FED doing more against inflation than the useless gangsters at the ECB. Shows that the thing is out of control.

Eurozone inflation 8.6% at beginning of July. Germany: 7.3%


I stick to my earlier prediction, we will see two digit inflation rates that will stay for long time to come.



Engine room, bridge: set recession speed. Helm, plot course for Stagflation Island. Bring us into a spiralling orbit around it until we run aground.

[Skybird]

The gallopping inflation is not a consequen ce of the Ukreqiane war , nor of the Corona pandemic, as many people think and givenrments and centela bankers argue. It has been in the making since decades, and was just artifically cosmetically glossed over, suppressed, hidden. Putin only served as a catalyst to speed things up, so did the pandemic. Without these, the develoolment wpould have been the same, just slower incoming. The pressure in the kettle now is to high, thats why th security valves burst.
Solution? I know only one. Let it run and raise interest rates NO MATTER WHAT that means for single states - and hope you are amongst those hwo make it throphgh in one pice. The accumulated sins of thirty or fourty years of criminally irresponsible monetarian policy are now raining down on us.



FOCUS writes:


The inflation currently prevailing in many parts of the world has recently been widely associated with the war in Ukraine. The ECB sees the Corona pandemic as the reason why prices had already risen significantly before that. But the reasons for inflationary pressures across the board lie deeper.

Since the middle of 2021, inflation rates have risen significantly worldwide. For May 2022, inflation was measured at 8.7 percent for Germany and 8.1 percent for the euro area. In the USA, 8.6 percent was reached in May 2022. Consumer prices have also risen significantly in many developing and emerging countries. Egypt reported a value of 13.1 percent in April 2022, Brazil 12.1 percent and Sri Lanka as much as 33.8 percent.

Inflation: war is often cited as the reason

Still, there were some countries with low inflation rates: In Japan, China and Switzerland, inflation rates remained low at 2.5 percent, 2.1 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, in April 2022. Where are the global inflation pressures coming from, and what are the differences resulting from?

Recent global inflationary pressures have been widely linked to the Ukraine war due to sharp increases in energy, commodity and food prices. U.S. President Joe Biden has therefore attributed seventy percent of inflation in the U.S. in the month of March to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In light of the war, the European Central Bank (ECB) has also explicitly pointed to the importance of soaring energy prices for high inflation in the euro area. ECB President Christine Lagarde believes that the fact that the inflation rate had already risen significantly before that was due to the Corona pandemic.

Inflationary pressure has been building for 30 years

But the reasons for the inflationary pressure on a broad front lie deeper. It has built up over a period of more than thirty years, as interest rates were cut sharply in crises starting in the U.S., but not raised to the same extent in the recovery phases after the crises. Since every devaluation of the dollar put upward pressure on the other currencies in the world monetary system, most central banks have followed the U.S. monetary expansion course since the 1990s. The global money glut is now reflected in rising producer prices worldwide and - only partially! - in sharply rising consumer prices.

For many industrialized countries, inflationary pressures were for a long time not visible in official consumer price indices because of the way inflation was measured. Since the 1990s, starting in the U.S.A., there has been a push for quality adjustment in inflation measurement. Statistical authorities have increasingly used quality improvements - for example, in industrial products such as cell phones and computers - as an opportunity to adjust prices measured in stores downward in the price statistics.

At the same time, quality adjustments in the form of extrapolated prices have not taken place for other product categories where quality losses can be suspected - for example, services, where self-service has increased significantly, or food, where production methods have become less sustainable.

Failures to measure inflation

Similarly, the weights of the goods represented in consumer price indexes have been adjusted to reflect changes in consumption patterns. This is likely to have led to the gradual replacement in the price indices of expensive goods with high price increases - such as solid wood furniture - by cheap goods with low price increases - such as pressboard furniture for self-assembly. Important groups of goods such as real estate, stocks and public goods (for example, roads, old-age pensions and airports) remained excluded from price measurement altogether. In the euro area, in contrast to other countries such as Switzerland or the U.S., even owner-occupied real estate is excluded from inflation measurement, although the ECB has contributed to a significant increase in real estate prices with persistently low interest rates.

In many countries, subsidies play an important role in keeping store prices stable for a long time. The ongoing low, zero and negative interest rate policies of central banks have subsidized companies around the world, which have been able to pass on the interest rate subsidies in the form of lower prices. Similarly, numerous crises in many countries have undermined the bargaining power of unions, allowing wage costs to be kept under control along with price pressures. Almost all industrialized countries subsidize agriculture, which keeps food prices low.

Subsidies artificially depress inflation

Subsidies have reached a particularly large scale in Japan, where the state has gained enormous additional spending leeway since the bursting of a stock and real estate price bubble in the early 1990s thanks to immense government bond purchases by the Bank of Japan. According to estimates by the Washington International Trade Association, over forty percent of Japanese farmers' income comes from the state. Generous aid to rice farmers has contributed to a significant drop in the price of rice in recent years. In addition, wheat, soybeans, buckwheat and rapeseed (also used as animal feed) are subsidized.

Other subsidies are found in rail transport, which plays an important role in densely populated Japan. Government aid has depressed school and university fees since 2009. Demand for cars has been repeatedly boosted by subsidies - most recently for electric vehicles - so that their prices have remained largely constant since 1990. Fast-growing government co-payments have dampened health care price increases. Government-controlled prices for water and electricity have also risen only weakly. In response to the recent steep rise in crude oil prices, wholesale gasoline prices have been subsidized.

China is pumping a lot of cheap liquidity into the corporate sector

China is moving in a similar direction. There, in contrast to the USA, the recent sharp rise in producer prices has not had a noticeable impact on consumer prices. This is probably due to the fact that the Peoples Bank of China is pumping a lot of cheap liquidity into the corporate sector via the state-controlled banking sector and local governments in response to the Ukraine crisis. Prices of public services - which dominate the services represented in the price index - and prices of industrial goods - which are often produced by state-owned enterprises - appear to be set with the central government's inflation targets in mind. Most recently, comparatively restrictive fiscal policies as well as corona lockdowns are likely to have dampened politically dangerous inflationary pressures.

With the latest price surge, driven primarily by energy prices, the East Asian model could now also be setting an example in the European Union. The low inflation in France by European standards is probably due not least to the fact that gas and electricity prices were already capped there last fall. In January 2022, the government in Paris decided to limit the price increase for electricity to four percent this year. In response to soaring inflation rates, many countries in the European Union are now also introducing comprehensive subsidies. These include direct payments to citizens - such as the one-off 300-euro payment for each income tax payer in Germany - and subsidies for energy, which pushes down prices for consumers.

Germany has reduced the energy tax on fuel to the European minimum for three months and suspended the levy for renewable energy plants (EEG levy). The nine-euro ticket will reduce prices on local public transport for three months. Austria plans to reduce taxes on gas and electricity for households and small businesses. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has cut electricity and gas prices by 25 percent and capped prices for wheat flour, sugar and milk.

The Netherlands made a one-time reduction in energy taxes and will cut the VAT on energy from 21 percent to nine percent starting this summer. Poland has reduced the VAT rate on gasoline and diesel from 23 percent to eight percent. The Czech government has eliminated road taxes. Romania has capped prices for electricity and natural gas. In Italy, network charges are eliminated and 25 cents is refunded for each liter of fuel. In Spain, the refund is twenty cents, while in Portugal the government sends out gasoline vouchers.

Switzerland finds a special way to combat inflation

Switzerland, which is considered a safe haven for capital inflows in the global inflationary environment, has found a special way to keep prices low. If the large capital inflows were to remain in Switzerland, it would both push up stock and real estate prices sharply and fuel credit growth and thus inflation. But by keeping interest rates well below those in the U.S., the Swiss National Bank is encouraging large-scale capital outflows that dampen domestic inflationary pressures.

Moreover, if the Swiss National Bank allows the Swiss franc to appreciate, as it has done in recent months, the prices of imported goods will fall. The pressure on domestic companies and domestic trade to keep prices low is growing. Swiss citizens have therefore benefited in the past from significantly lower inflation rates than citizens in the euro area.

While the quantity of subsidized goods appears to be growing over time in many countries, the financing of rampant government spending remains an open question. With coffers widely empty and cuts in other areas of spending unpopular, many governments in the euro area - as in the case of Japan - appear to be relying on additional debt and thus on the ECB's purchase of government bonds. However, this continues to grow the money supply, which is likely to push inflationary pressures even higher in the longer term.

ECB must raise interest rates

There is only one way to escape this vicious circle: central banks must raise interest rates. Since this limits the spending scope of the highly indebted euro countries in the medium term and is bad for the economy, the ECB still seems reluctant to take decisive steps, despite the first announced interest rate steps. By contrast, many other central banks have already embarked on a clear course of interest rate increases. In the USA, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has ended its bond purchases in light of high inflation rates and signaled numerous interest rate steps for 2022.

The Bank of England has already raised interest rates several times. Sweden's Riksbank has made a fundamental change of course and brought forward the timing of its first interest rate hike. Central and Eastern European countries with reform experience, such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, have also raised interest rates. It remains to be seen whether these central banks will sustain their monetary tightening courses in light of growing economic and political instabilities that are likely to be associated with the rate hikes.

Regardless, one thing is certain: historically, excessive government spending and persistently loose monetary policies have been associated with economic and political instability. Hiding inflation with the help of subsidies and price controls may justify persistently loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term, but it does not solve the problem of excessive spending commitments. It is therefore to be hoped that the announcement of interest rate hikes in the U.S. and many other countries heralds the start of a global monetary and fiscal stabilization process.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

While the ECB now has started to raise interest rates - too late, too slow, too little - it also has alraedy said it prepares to stick to its self-chosen but by law and treaty unlegitimised(!) role of financing states in the south like Italy, Greece, but also France, wanting to enforce that interests that states with high debts must pay for risk compensation do not become "too high", in the devine ECB's judgement at least. That is money socialism at its purest level, pure planned economy. It also means that the ECB already prepares its own exit from the money reducing measures it now tries with raising interests, by preparing to pump even more money into the ECB zone with its new intended means to prevent a too huge spread of interests for national state bonds. It sabotages its own interst raising that way!

All this can and will not go well, but lead into desaster. Russia is our smaller problem, Italy, Greece and especially France are far more worrying conerns of ours. At least they should be!

I predict social unrest and riots in the street within ten years, probably significantly less. I do not even rule out civil wars and even wars between former EU member states in the long run. And all that socialist Eiteitei and Ringelpietz mit Anfassen they will try until then will not change that. Things have started to move in large now, and the momentum now is beyond the point where you still could stopp things from starting to slide and form an avalanche - even less so with such incometent clueless and irrepsonsble carriocature sof political leaders at the helms everywhere, from national governments to international institutions. EVERYTHING NOW SPEAKS AGAINST US. In an useless bid to nevertheless try to stop the momentum states will turn increasingly totalitarian and socialist. That will fail in the end, but kill freedoms and civil liberties, and private property rights. After these - the middle class will have been mostly annihilated by then - the radicals from the other end of the spectrum, in some countries also religious fanatics, will raise their ugly heads.

The EU as known today has already lived the better share of its life, its now in its end game. This end game will run for one or two decades, but the end game it nevertheless is. The Euro will collapse earlier. Before end of this century Europe will have become completely irrelevant for all and everything, and will be nothing more than the running joke of global politics.

[Skybird]

The Tagesspiegel comments:


The government crisis in Rome will trigger a severe euro crisis and devalue money. The ECB is setting the wrong incentives with bailout promises. It's bad enough that Italy is losing its government. Especially now, when the consequences of the Ukraine war demand concerted and decisive action in Europe.

It's likely to get worse, not just for Italy, but for all eurozone countries and their citizens. A new currency crisis is probably only a matter of time.

It will cause far greater damage than the Greek crisis. Italy is the third largest economy in the EU after Germany and France.

Its gross domestic product (GDP) is around ten times larger than Greece's. If international confidence in such an important country and its economy is lost, the potential for destruction is enormous.

This risk triggered concerns back in 2015, when Greece threatened to sweep Italy away. Since then, the risks have grown.

Italy was 130 percent of its GDP in debt then, 150 percent today. At the time, the Renzi government inspired confidence among EU partners and international markets that it intended to address the problems. Now, the wanton overthrow of respected Prime Minister Mario Draghi is leading to a vote of no confidence. He, too, has been too timid in reforming. But the direction was right, the will was evident.

The opposite is expected in the future: a right-wing populist coalition of the Friars of Italy led by Giorgia Meloni-she would be the first woman to head the government-Matteo Salvini's Lega Nord and the Forza Italia of the aged Silvio Berlusconi. They all have a reputation for treating the state as prey and ignoring their responsibility to Italy's citizens and Europe's cohesion.

The extent of the mistrust can be seen in the "spreads," the difference in interest rates for German and Italian government bonds. It would be even wider if the ECB had not announced new bailouts just in case: It wants to buy bonds of tottering euro states to stabilize the euro.

This is not only legally questionable. The ECB is not allowed to indirectly finance euro states. Above all, it is a "moral hazard," a false incentive. It would have to urge Italy's government to reform, not encourage it to ignore interest rates and debt, because the ECB will save the country and the euro partners must go along because otherwise the common currency will break up.

Who will save the euro from Italy's politics? The rules for the EU and eurozone date from a time when everyone was trusted to follow rules. There are no effective penalties for misconduct.

Here, too, it's time for a rethink in Berlin, Paris and Brussels. How can you hurt rule-breakers so much that they prefer to cooperate?

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (http://www.DeepL.com/Translator) (free version)

[Skybird]

Putting it here, lacking a better place and not wanting to start a new thread on it.


I knew the French had shut down several powerplants for maintenance. I did not know their situation is this dire. That has consequences for Germany as well. Germany counts on getting bailed out with electricity by its neighbours in times when German demand is high than homegrown power generation. If luck is not on all our side, interesting times lie ahead. I am, if you have not guessed it already :), pessimistic on all this.



The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


Everyone talks about the German energy crisis - but in France the situation is far worse

French electricity prices are far higher than in Germany because many nuclear power plants are not in operation. If consumption does not fall, there is a threat of a blackout in winter.

Electricity is in danger of running out in France, a nuclear country. Compared to the average between 2010 and 2020, the price of a megawatt hour in France is now ten times as expensive. Traders now have to pay over 500 euros for it. In Germany, the price is much lower and currently ranges between 350 and 370 euros.

Is France facing a blackout?

Under normal conditions, nuclear power accounts for about 70 percent of France's energy mix. On Friday afternoon, however, French nuclear power plants supplied only 59 percent of the electricity needed, according to grid operator RTE. This is because only 26 of the 57 reactors are currently in operation. France must increasingly switch to gas-fired power plants, wind and imports.

In summer, when French electricity consumption is around 45 gigawatts per hour, this can still be absorbed. In winter, however, demand is about twice as high. If electricity consumption does not fall substantially, France would be the first European country to see its lights go out - and not Germany.

Heat and old reactors lead to outages

Because of the extreme temperatures in July, many nuclear power plants had to be shut down. This is because the cooling water that the nuclear power plants discharge into the rivers must not exceed a certain temperature, according to the law. At many locations, where temperatures exceeded 40 degrees last week, the reactors had to shut down.

In addition, many of the French reactors are old and need to be overhauled. At the Gravelines nuclear power plant in northern France, engineers had found massive corrosion damage during an inspection. The repairs will take six months. Because of the Corona pandemic, many reactors in France were not maintained. This is now being made up for, and increased outages are occurring.

Winter threatens bad things

For private consumers, electricity prices are capped, but French companies have to pay the skyrocketing market prices. In the coming winter, the Bloomberg news agency therefore assumes a nasty scenario: The price of the base load is expected to rise to 1000 euros per megawatt hour in December, and even to 2000 euros in the evening hours. This would correspond to twice the expected prices in Germany.

If there is little wind in the fall and the winter is colder than average, demand could exceed the supply of electricity. In that case, the network operator RTE could cut off the power to individual energy-intensive companies for 15 minutes to an hour to relieve the network.

The companies affected would receive financial compensation for this. So far, the French network operator has only very rarely used the mechanism. Most recently once in 2019 and once in 2020. It is likely that the French grid operator will declare the highest energy warning level in winter. In this case, households and businesses will be urged to reduce their consumption to prevent a blackout.

The state takes over as operator of the nuclear power plants

The French state has already stepped in to prevent the worst from happening: The government announced it would fully take over the struggling energy company EdF. Previously, the state owned 84 percent of the shares in the company, which operates all nuclear power plants in the country. On Thursday, EdF reported a loss of more than 5 billion euros in the first half of 2022. The nationalization is expected to spur major investments in new nuclear power plants.

However, the government has yet to tackle the most important construction site in the group. After the takeover, the energy group's CEO, Jean-Bernard Lévy, is to leave. He had previously spoken out against nationalization and the price cap. Despite Lévy's imminent departure, President Emmanuel Macron has not yet announced a successor.

[Jimbuna]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens energy-wise in many European countries (UK included) this coming winter.

[mapuc]

Since Skybird talked about coming blackout in some European countries I thought I would post it here-Since it has to do with energy supplies.

Poland has decided to rent a German Nuclear powerplant. It was in the news here and some Danish Politicians said Denmark should do the same-Rent a nuclear powerplant in Germany.

There are three of these who is about to be shut down-So instead of shutting them down they deliver electricity to Poland and maybe Denmark.

I can't say if it's good or a bad thing.

Markus

[Skybird]

Not realistic, it was a provocation only, Markus, to direct attention at the obvious contradiction of the Germans' energy policies. They want to switch off nuclear powerplants, but want to import nuclear power, and they do not want to frack their gas of which they have more than I knew until recently, but they beg that the US ships them as much fracking gas as possible - at extensive costs already before the crisis - in liquified form, and they do want to save gas and want solidarity that other nations should save gas and risk blackpouts as well so that Germany can continue to burn gas for producing electrity of which they tell the German people that there is no link between an electric future, e-heating, e-cars, and gas burnt for power production

The German positions are a stellar inner contradiction from A to Z , and nothing in the German arguments is defendable, its all BS of unbelievable proportions. The whole German energy transformation policy and plan is a hilarious heap of BS. From beginning on. Unrealistic, incompetently thought-out BS.

Thats what happens if you let ideologists and social experimentators and incompetent dilletantes run a country, unable quota girls and alpha males too full of themsleves and their powerpolitical party games.

Since decades this country gets ruled and ruined by ideologists who think reality and the laws of nature would bend to their dreamdancing. And not just Germany. And not just on nation-level, but in international institutions as well. Why do you think I'm always so pissed off, since many years?

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMiQeS1XywA

[mapuc]

Not realistic, it was a provocation only, Markus, to direct attention at the obvious contradiction of the Germans' energy policies. They want to switch off nuclear powerplants, but want to import nuclear power, and they do not want to frack their gas of which they have more than I knew until recently, but they beg that the US ships them as much fracking gas as possible - at extensive costs already before the crisis - in liquified form, and they do want to save gas and want solidarity that other nations should save gas and risk blackpouts as well so that Germany can continue to burn gas for producing electrity of which they tell the German people that there is no link between an electric future, e-heating, e-cars, and gas burnt for power production

The German positions are a stellar inner contradiction from A to Z , and nothing in the German arguments is defendable, its all BS of unbelievable proportions. The whole German energy transformation policy and plan is a hilarious heap of BS. From beginning on. Unrealistic, incompetently thought-out BS.

Thats what happens if you let ideologists and social experimentators and incompetent dilletantes run a country, unable quota girls and alpha males too full of themsleves and their powerpolitical party games.

Since decades this country gets ruled and ruined by ideologists who think reality and the laws of nature would bend to their dreamdancing. And not just Germany. And not just on nation-level, but in international institutions as well. Why do you think I'm always so pissed off, since many years?

You know a hell of a lot more about Germany's Nuclear powerplant, than I ever will. I believe you more than what I heard in the news. Now there are even an article about it. Found even an English version

A meeting of the EU Affairs Committee in the Polish parliament on Thursday addressed a project to lease from Germany its nuclear power plants, which are due to close soon. Germany is pursuing a plan dating back to 2000 to extinguish its nuclear sector completely.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/polish-lawmakers-eye-lease-of-german-nuclear-power-plants/

Markus

[Skybird]

No, I do not know " a hell of a lot" about German nuclear powerplants, but I am capable to do simple basic arithmetics, and I can read. And what I read is that the 6 remaining German powerplants were/are amongst the safest and most modern in the world, the statistics on technical problems clearly show that, and the six powerplants now talked about rank amongst the 10 or 12 safest and modern powerplants in the world today - still so.

When I do a bike tour southwest, i sometimes come into the vicinity of the town of Datteln, which is seat to the most modern and cleaniest coal and newest powerplant in Germany. But it never was allowed to work, due to energy transformation policies. You will not find many coal powerplants with similair low emissions, like this one. It was offered to switch this one on and for it switching off 6 of the oldest and dirtiest coal powerplants we had/have. But the ideologists said "no", and insistedo n that no modern new coal powerplant gets connected to the powergrid, not even if that means to switch six much dirtier and older powerplants off. That is fundamentalism at its finest.

We have build the most modern coal powerplant in Germany here, and one of the most modenr and cleaniest coal powerplants in all Europe. It costed much money. It then got blocked, and got taken off the grid, newer was allwoed t run for a single day, and AFAIK they have now started to dismantle it, or prepare to dismantle it. It was not on duty for a single day. Many older, dirtier coal powerplants still run. Its against all logic. The government now even reactivated BROWN COAL mining and powerplants, which is even heavier in emmissions that charcoal, only so that they want to ignore nuclear power.

This is not any rational position anymore. This is fanatism coupled with irrationalism and criminal irresponsibility.

And Germany is full of such political stunts.

[mapuc]

Thinking after I should have used other words than these hell of a.

But when it comes to political and other not technology related stuff about your power plants I trust you more than I do some Danish reporter in Germany.

Dan Jørgensen our Danish Minister for Climate, Energy and Supply. Will not hear anything about nuclear power-Despite 1 big or some few smaller reactor could supply Denmark with the electricity they need and we do not have to buy from Sweden, Norway or Germany.

We could rent one from our neighbour until we have built our own.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Not realistic, it was a provocation only, Markus, to direct attention at the obvious contradiction of the Germans' energy policies. They want to switch off nuclear powerplants, but want to import nuclear power, and they do not want to frack their gas of which they have more than I knew until recently, but they beg that the US ships them as much fracking gas as possible - at extensive costs already before the crisis - in liquified form, and they do want to save gas and want solidarity that other nations should save gas and risk blackpouts as well so that Germany can continue to burn gas for producing electrity of which they tell the German people that there is no link between an electric future, e-heating, e-cars, and gas burnt for power production

The German positions are a stellar inner contradiction from A to Z , and nothing in the German arguments is defendable, its all BS of unbelievable proportions. The whole German energy transformation policy and plan is a hilarious heap of BS. From beginning on. Unrealistic, incompetently thought-out BS.

Thats what happens if you let ideologists and social experimentators and incompetent dilletantes run a country, unable quota girls and alpha males too full of themsleves and their powerpolitical party games.

Since decades this country gets ruled and ruined by ideologists who think reality and the laws of nature would bend to their dreamdancing. And not just Germany. And not just on nation-level, but in international institutions as well. Why do you think I'm always so pissed off, since many years?

Can;t say I fully understand the German position but this article shows you the mess the population in the UK are currently facing.

Details of £400 energy payment to households revealed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62338543

[Skybird]

Can;t say I fully understand the German position but this article shows you the mess the population in the UK are currently facing.
We have comparable single payment schemes over here, but only for working people, not pensioners. We also has had some car gasoline bonus, a financial one.


Does all not work well, and covers not the costs. Suppliers have to pay up to ten times more for gas than before the world turned upsaide down. Gas households could get hit by bills 6-10 times as high as before.



Welcome to inflation. Nobody should say we did not see this coming. Centrela banks since yeras and decdades spill eve rmore kerosin into the fire, and what they do now is trying to extinguish the fire by handing out kerosine packs to the ordinary people to help them saving themselves from the fire.



The ECB meanwhile nahs prepared, desüpiute its totally insufficnet interes rise, a new way to pump EVEN MORE money into the sytem, comes the righ time. These braidead zombies just do not get it, and are fixiated on financing individual states like Italy, Greece, France...(which they have no mandate for, and which is forbidden by EU treaties).



I see no way out. This will turn uglier and uglier. God knows where we will be in 2 years, 4 years, 6 years from now on. This all can only turn really, really ugly. Even replacing the currency with another one will cost people dear ammounts of their private property and savings/buying power.



Atlas shrugs. Right now, and all around us. You can run, but you cant hide.

[Skybird]

The ECB cannot do without it and already tries to extinguish fires again by spilling even more gasoline into the fires and distorting markets. For that it uses a new "tool" (as if these fraudulent schemes they implenment all the time were "tools"...) it has "created" just last month. Also, bonds which has reached the end of their runnig time now no longer gets paid back, but mandatorily gets re"invested" (obviously they have no clue what the term "investment" actually describes) into new bonds again with even more disadvantageous conditions for the original lender.

Fraud and betrayal, plunder, theft and lies. Thats what it is about, nothing else.

---------------
(Bloomberg) The European Central Bank appears to have made billions of dollars of bond purchases to protect Italy and other southern euro members from undesirable market developments (hear, hear, Skybird) since activating its first line of defense against speculation a month ago.

Data released Tuesday indicate a significant use of funds freed up by maturing bonds in the pandemic program portfolio. This suggests that the tool has been deployed, which the central bank has earmarked as a first response to market turmoil.

The statistics, which are available only on a two-month basis, show that net holdings of German, French, and Dutch bonds fell by 18.9 billion euros through July. Net purchases of bonds from Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece totaled 17.3 billion euros.

The figures are the first hard data to show the ECB's intervention in bond markets after a jump in bond yields in June forced President Christine Lagarde to call an emergency meeting at which officials agreed on the need for a response.

"It appears that the ECB has already activated its first line of defense," said Christoph Rieger, head of rates at Commerzbank AG. "This is by far the biggest reduction in German holdings since the ECB started quantitative easing, and more than we expected." As a first step, council members agreed to flexibly reinvest the repayments due on their €1.66 trillion asset purchase program.

To organize the bond purchases, they divided the euro area into three categories: Donors, including Germany, France and the Netherlands; Recipients, consisting of Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal; and so-called Neutrals.

Lagarde described this flexibility as the ECB's first line of defense against market volatility that threatens the transmission of monetary policy. In addition, a newly created debt purchase tool is ready in the background should stronger intervention become necessary.

Italy has been in investors' focus since Prime Minister Mario Draghi's government fell last month and new elections were put on the agenda for late September.
-----------


THIS IS FINANCIAL SOCIALISM IN ITS PUREST FORM. Not just the ammount of currency tokens, but even terms of conditions and interests as a tool to counter-balance bigger risks for lenders to leasers, are now being directly manipulated. From here on it will not be much longer anymore until the state begins to dicate prices and openly confess to be a state-micromanaged planned economy.

The - even not so long - journey of the ECB to the dark side of the force is completed. Long live the continental GDR.

[Skybird]

Prices for metals, ores and commodities are in a steep decline. That is hardly a good sign and it does not indicate a normalization, because when inflation continues to be high (as is the case), the only other explanation for that price drop is a dramatic decline of demand.

In other words, the economy is drastically contracting - globally. At a high inflaiton level, and an ever faster rotating wages-prices-spiral.



Social nitroglycerine. Eeconomic and financial core meltdown.

[Jimbuna]

Energy bill crisis is on scale of pandemic.

Cornwall also expects bills to increase much more sharply in January, with the average household paying £355 a month, instead of the current £164 a month.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62483770

[Rockstar]

Welcome to World War III


War and Interest Rates

Zoltan Pozsar
212 538 3779 zoltan.pozsar@credit-suisse.com

https://advisoranalyst.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/zoltan-pozsar-aug-2-war-and-interest-rates-1.pdf


…Getting right where inflation goes from here is basically a matter of perspective: do you see inflation as cyclical (a messy re-opening after Covid, exacerbated by excessive stimulus) or structural (a messy transition to a multipolar world order, where two great powers are challenging the might and hegemony of the U.S.). If the former, inflation has peaked. If the latter, inflation has barely started, and could actually be understood as an outright instrument of war, for as Lenin said, “the best way to destabilize the capitalist system [is] to debauch the currency”.

Finally, two more notes to close our opening essay about war and inflation...

First, an observation from Pippa Malmgren: “Peter Drucker delayed publishing his book, The End of Economic Man: The Origins of Totalitarianism, until 1939 because he was frightened to say that WWII was about to begin. I feel his angst as I write of my belief that we have already entered WWIII. But before you jump out of your skin, try to remember that war is changing: the confrontations and conflicts of our time may be different from what we experienced before. [...] New theaters of conflict are no longer exclusively about physical territory and humans on a front line, but about cyberspace, space and the high seas,” as well as pipelines, interbank messaging systems (SWIFT), ASML machines, currencies, commodities, and inflation as described in our opening essay above.

[Skybird]

What a surprise. I preach since yearsd that the official inflation is intentionally marginalized and that real inflation is much higher and since many years already two-digit. Die Welt writes:

Big inflation hoax? Study detects far worse inflation

Paul Jackson comes from a working-class background. When he was born in 1961, his father was sick, the family had little money, and then there was also the period of great inflation in the 1970s. "I've seen what a lot of poor people are going through right now," says Jackson, who is now chief strategist for the investment firm Invesco. And he can offer them little hope. "Central banks are miles behind in fighting inflation, unfortunately."

In the U.K., where Jackson lives, the inflation rate just broke through the 10 percent threshold. In Germany, it is still being held down by measures such as the 9-euro ticket or the fuel rebate, but when these run out, similar rates are possible in this country.

Fifty years ago, the wave of inflation could only be stopped in the end by drastic measures: Back then, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the key interest rate to as much as 20 percent, triggering a deep recession. Is something like that necessary again today? Or will the previous, rather modest interest rate hikes in the U.S. and the euro zone suffice this time?

The latter is suggested by the fact that official inflation rates in the 1970s were still far higher in most countries than they are today. However, this could be a deception, as a recent study by economists Marijn A. Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer and Lawrence H. Summers shows. The researchers addressed the problem that inflation rates used to be measured differently than they are today. As a result, they have recalculated the data in a uniform way - and come to a startling conclusion.

"Our analysis reveals that current inflation, especially core inflation, is considerably closer to past peaks than official data suggest," the authors write. Core inflation is the value obtained when energy and food prices are excluded from the calculation. It is seen by economists as an indicator of how much inflation has already spread.

For example, according to official data, U.S. core inflation was 13.6 percent at its peak in June 1980; it is currently reported at 5.9 percent - seemingly a far cry from the value at that time. However, according to the researchers' recalculations, it was 9.1 percent in 1980, which would shrink the difference significantly.
"We need a decline in inflation of a similar magnitude today"

Moreover, the inflation measure at the time makes the subsequent decline, brought about by drastic interest rate increases under then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, look more severe than it was. Instead of an eleven percentage point drop in the inflation rate as a result of these measures, he said, it only fell by about five percentage points. "To return to a core inflation rate of two percent," the economists write, "we need a decline in inflation today of similar magnitude to that achieved by Volcker."

So inflation is currently much more pronounced by historical standards than most observers assume, and far harsher measures would therefore be needed than have been taken so far. But most importantly, they should have been taken sooner. "The Fed should have responded as early as mid-2021," says Invesco strategist Jackson.

Instead, it let valuable time pass until March of this year. The European Central Bank (ECB) waited even longer, raising its interest rate for the first time only last month. "Because central banks have been so late in responding, they now have to act all the more aggressively."

But apparently that hasn't been enough so far. This is shown by people's so-called inflation expectations, which are determined in surveys. The Bundesbank published these data for Germany as recently as August 12 - and they are shocking. According to the data, Germans do not expect a decline in inflation over the next twelve months, but on average a rate of seven to eight percent. Even over a five-year period, they expect a rate of around five percent.

For Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, this is an alarm signal. "People expect higher inflation when they don't believe that central banks are successfully fighting inflation," he says. "And currently, many no longer believe that." That's not just because of the reluctance to raise interest rates, he adds. "There was an ECB crisis meeting on rising Italian government bond yields," Krämer says. "But there hasn't been an emergency meeting on inflation to date."

He also believes that interest rates would have to rise significantly further to get inflation under control. Currently, the ECB's key interest rate is 0.5 percent. "At 2.5 to three percent would be the neutral interest rate," says Krämer. So at that level, monetary policy would neither slow down nor fire up the economy. "Three to four percent would be necessary to get into inflation-fighting mode," the Commerzbank expert believes.

Paradoxically, however, the belief has spread in the financial market in recent weeks that the worst is already behind us in terms of inflation. The reason for this was the slight decline in the inflation rate in the USA in July. Now, the majority of investors believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once or twice more by the end of the year, but that it will cut them again next year. And for the ECB, too, they expect a maximum of one or two more slight increases before the Europeans do a U-turn again.

The consequence of this will be that Germany will have to live with high inflation rates for years to come, Krämer fears. "Inflation is becoming entrenched and will not go away on its own," he says. That doesn't mean hyperinflation by any means, but rates of four to five percent could become normal.

Unless, of course, things are different than they were 50 years ago. And indeed, there is evidence for that, too, because despite all the similarities between then and now, there are also many differences. "Back then, inflation was driven even more by energy prices," says Paul Jackson. This was triggered by Opec's oil price increases, but ultimately behind it was a huge surge in demand due to the population explosion since the 1950s. In the meantime, however, the population is shrinking, and demand for energy will tend to decline.

"Also, workers had much stronger bargaining power back then," Jackson says. In Germany, 32 percent of workers were members of a union in 1970; since then, the percentage has shrunk to half. "This makes it much harder for workers to fight for wage compensation, and the wage-price spiral turns more slowly today than it did 50 years ago."

But if price increases are not offset by corresponding wage increases, workers will inevitably have to save. They will be able to afford fewer goods and services. "That, in turn, will lead to a drop in demand," the investment expert says, "which then triggers a recession." Along the way, inflation sows the seeds for its own decline.

This would then be achieved by a different route than in the late 1970s, but it would not be any less painful. Especially not for workers, employees and the poorest strata of society.

---------------

Just months ago Russia had inflation worries, too. Putin's chief of central bank did no half things,k and raise dinterest rates to 20%. Short time later inflaiton was down to managable levels and interest rate of the centrla bank followed. When I red about this ealrier this year, it was back to below 9%, at that time tendency dropping.

ECB and FED will blow up both economies. And leave the middle class as a monumental collateral damage.

[Skybird]

Everybody talks about gas. Why? :doh: Have this, for a change : spot market prices on the EEX power exchange in Leipzig are currently breaking record after record: whereas a year ago it was only 23 euros for a megawatt hour, we have now already reached 563 euros. An increase of well over 2000 percent within 12 months.

And Bubble-Olaf and children's book author Robert Habeck (really!) jet to Canada and want to seal deals for hydrogen deliveries, in a coupe of years. :o
Habeck has just once again categorically ruled out to leave the nuclear reactors in action. I wish he had stuck to writing children's books. And in a way, he has. The whole policy he makes, is a fairy tale.

[Jimbuna]

Your lot sound as clueless as our lot are.

[Skybird]

The quesiton is whether they are in a state of cluelessness - or reality denial.



I think many most often know quite early what the truth is and what is right and wrong - but then take a lot of time more to admit to themselves that they know it, because the truth is so hard, and denying it and pretending one does not know looks like an easy way out.



But while you can run, you cannot hide. Truth finds you - and we are about to get found. Won't get pretty.

[mapuc]

Danish Ekstra Bladet Writes:
Even though this article is mostly about UK economy. I decide to post it here and not in the UK politics thread.


Sinister prediction: inflation could explode
In Britain, inflation could peak at 18 percent next year, economist warns

It's not just at home that prices are soaring.

In Britain, inflation is raging too. Fears of recession prompted the Bank of England earlier in August to make the biggest interest rate jump in 27 years.

At home, inflation stood at 8.7% in July. However, a new prediction from US bank Citi makes the Danish scare figures look 'nice'.

Early next year
UK consumer prices are expected to be as much as 18 percent higher by early 2023 than they were at the start of this year, according to CNN.

'The question now is what policymakers can do to have an impact on both inflation and the real economy,' writes Citi Bank economist Benjamin Nabarro in a note to clients.

The last time inflation was at 18 percent in Britain was in 1976.

Hits 13 per cent in October
So there are signs that the British still have the worst of it ahead of them. Indeed, the Bank of England estimates that inflation - a measure of how much prices rise in a year - will reach 13% as early as October.

At the same time, the central bank estimates that the UK will enter a period of recession in the fourth quarter of this year, with the economy shrinking rather than growing.

Therefore, inflation must come down to an acceptable level, says Andrew Bailey, head of the Bank of England.

- Getting inflation down to two per cent is our first priority. Let there be no doubt about that.

- All options are on the table for our September meeting and beyond," he said following the interest rate rise in early August.

The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 0.50 percentage points to 1.75%.

Normally, a rate hike would strengthen the local currency, but this time the picture was different.

The pound fell against the euro by 0.6% after the rate rise. This is probably due to the pessimistic assessment of the British economy in the coming year.

Markus

[Skybird]

Recession should not be feared, its not a fault, but a correction. Like fever, one should let it run. Getting inflation under control ASAP, at any cost, is the only priority left now. THE ONLY PRIORITY. Becasue the situaiton is despearte - and still there are cen tral bankers and potlkicans who have not relaised this. Any other purpose means nothing without this preconditon be fulfilled.


I would push interests up to 20-25% immediately, in America, Europe, Asia. Nuking from orbit, for the beasts roam freely and are out of control. Better loose some economies and states, than all.



Yes, we are at this stage already: better loose some states, instead of all.


Zero chance the ECB criminals will understand this. Their egoism and incompetence ridicules all reason and sanity.

[mapuc]

We have a saying here in Denmark - exaggeration promotes understanding - However, it seems that 20-25% is just on the high side

You can also kill the patient by giving them an overdosis.

This is what I think would happen to our economy if our government raised the interest rate from 20 to 25 %.

Markus

[Skybird]

There are precedences, and they worked.

UsA, 50 years ago. The long text above mentions it.

Also, we have toohigh a quota of zombie companies, they skyrocketd during corona, are unable to live by themselves, are only kept floating by aid and subvention, suck the blood of the healthy companies.

Before corona, their share was said to be around 18% in europe, and I said add around 5 to 10 percent to that. Now, three yeafs later, the zombies may form even a 25 to 30 percent of the economy officially. And again i say they make it look nice, so i add another 5% to those numbers again, estimated.

The rotten flesh stinks and poisens the rest of the body. It must be cut off.
Problem is politicians oftdn do not understand tbat failing and going bancrupg is part of the market econkmy. Uncompetitive companies must be allowed to leave the competition. Tbeir slot then gegs picked by somebody else.

Kill the competition like they do in planned economies, and the whole system gets zombified.

[Jimbuna]

A regular energy industry exercise aimed at preparing the UK for the possibility of a gas supply emergency has been scaled up despite the government downplaying the threat of shortages this winter.

The annual drill will see potential scenarios - including rationing electricity - wargamed over four days, rather than the usual two, as energy concerns grow.

Industry insiders linked the drill's extension to the seriousness of the energy challenges forecast this winter.

But the government says the exercise is a routine part of the energy industry calendar and insists there is no risk to gas supplies this winter.

The National Grid exercise, which will take place across four days in September and October, will involve government agencies, regulators, lobby groups and major energy firms.

Called Exercise Degree, it will simulate scenarios in which a loss of gas supply triggers an emergency situation for the UK's energy system.

https://i.postimg.cc/WbvKmJqt/126409962-gas-storage-22-08-v2-nc-png.webp (https://postimg.cc/G9XqdtQ1)

[Skybird]

I said in the past that Austria will get problem with its eletric power made by river/water powerplants, due to the glaciers dying and thus less water, much less water, in spring.



But where Austria will be, China already seems to be. Due to rivers having dried out and not enough water to run water powerplants, in severla regions they now ration electricty again for factories and production.



And this causes additional interdiction of globla supply chains, rippling through the total global trade and production network.



And the Purchasing Managers' Index for the EU zone has dropped below 50, to 49.2, which means its now "inoffically official": the economy shrinks. Recession is a certainty now, can no longer be doubted, debated about, "prevented".

[Skybird]

In Europe, two thirds of the continent are officially recognized to be heavily effected by drought. The rivers have so low water levels that so-called hunger stones appear:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/19/hunger-stones-wrecks-and-bones-europe-drought-brings-past-to-surface

In Germany, farmers fear that next year a quarter less of agricultural foods may be produced. This is not only due to lacking water, but also lacking gas to produce fertilizers, and instructions from the EU Central Committee to exclude extensive farmland from active farming and not to use it for production. This year's production of all grains and crops together is slightly better than last year, but is significantly below the averages of the years before Corona.

[Skybird]

A memo by Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei that was directed at his staff, has been leaked and now is publicly known. In it he voices his assessment that the Chinese economy is in very deep troubles and that there is no hope of improvement (but likelihood for worstening), in the next 3-5 years.

Whether this you see as relevant for the global and our economy and so it belongs into this thread instead of the China thread, depends on whether you see the Chinese economy's influence on the fate of the global and our eocnomy as relevant or not.

Obviously I think its very relevant, and so I placed it here.

All thanks and jubilating to comrade Xi, if you please.

If I were Taiwan, I would not be less nervous now. Launching unneeded wars to distract from one's inner political mess, is an eternal pattern in history.

[mapuc]

You will owe nothing and you will be happy.

Many of my friends seems to have jumped on this WEF-conspiracy train, sadly.

They fear the great reset which should be the prologue to the new world order-Where have I heard this before ?

In this new world order ordinary people will not owe things and they will be happy.

This was a little detour from our (Crazy)economy news

Markus

[Skybird]

In this new world order ordinary people will not owe things and they will be happy.

They will be desperate or greedy because the owe nothing and dont know how to make a living for themsleves or their families or their future, and so they will start to smash each other's heads and fall for extremists' promises both political and religously.

[Jimbuna]

If I were Taiwan, I would not be less nervous now. Launching unneeded wars to distract from one's inner political mess, is an eternal pattern in history.

How so very true :yep:

[Skybird]

The EZB has become the cash point of the European Club Med.The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


No sooner have Italy's financing costs risen than the ECB launches a new government bond-buying program, because otherwise monetary policy will allegedly not work properly and interest rates will deviate too much. The argumentation is perfidious because it can be used to justify almost anything. In this way, the ECB is abandoning its mandate of price stability.

The priority of the European Central Bank (ECB) became obvious on June 15: On that hot summer day, the Governing Council convened for an emergency meeting, not even a week after its regular meeting. The yield on Italian government bonds had climbed to 4.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points above its German counterpart - apparently an alarm signal from the ECB's point of view. By contrast, inflation, which is shooting ever higher at almost nine percent, has never been worth an emergency meeting for the central bank, even though inflation in some euro countries has been in double digits for months and recently reached an outrageous 23 percent in Estonia. The development shows the ever-increasing Mediterraneanization of monetary policy.

The ECB has long cared lovingly about favorable financing conditions for the member countries of the monetary union. In recent years, it has purchased a total of around 4.3 trillion euros in government bonds with money newly created out of thin air. At times, the central bank financed the entire net new debt of the member states. At first, this was done to boost the economy and thus the inflation rate, which was considered too low. For a long time, the inflation rate fluctuated between zero and two percent, slightly below the ECB's medium-term target of two percent. It then bought government bonds to support member countries during the Corona pandemic.

Invariably, this had the pleasant side effect for the finance ministers of the euro countries - or was it even the main objective? -that the central bank protected them from market-based interest rates. For some observers, this was tolerable at first because inflation in the euro zone was low. But with inflation rates picking up considerably since the fall of 2021 - well before Russia's invasion of Ukraine - the "monetary guardians" came under pressure. After an agonizingly long hesitation, the ECB's Governing Council ended government bond purchases this summer and held out the prospect of a first key interest rate hike, which has since been implemented.

Rising inflation rates combined with the cessation of government bond purchases and the prospect of rising key interest rates caused interest rates to rise sharply on the capital markets. In Italy, the government crisis surrounding Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the former head of the ECB, further fueled the rise in interest rates, driving up interest rate differentials versus German government bonds. But this time the ECB did not hesitate for long, but announced the preparation of a new government bond purchase program in the crisis meeting mentioned at the beginning. In the meantime, the ECB Governing Council adopted the so-called "Transmission Protection Instrument" (TPI).

It could be activated to counter unwarranted and disorderly market dynamics that posed a serious risk to the transmission of monetary policy throughout the euro area. In this way, the ECB wants to prevent an alleged fragmentation of the euro area, i.e., an excessive dispersion of interest rates. To justify this, the central bank claims that the risk premiums demanded by investors could rise above the level justified by a country's fundamentals.

In doing so, the ladies and gentlemen of money at the ECB's Frankfurt headquarters arrogate to themselves a knowledge they do not and cannot have. The level of interest rates for a country at any given time always depends on countless factors and is ultimately formed on the basis of the swarm intelligence of financial market players. When the ECB raises the question of whether a certain interest rate level is still justified, its answer will always be deeply interest-driven and ultimately political. Once again, the ECB is entering the field of fiscal policy.

"Will Europe's new TPI be an ATM?" asks Willem Buiter in a guest post on the Project Syndicate platform. In it, the former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee explains why the answer is "yes." Buiter's concerns are shared by many observers in Europe. German economists Volker Wieland, Clemens Fuest and Lars Feld recently described the purchase program as "toxic for the monetary union," and rightly so. For Wieland, the TPI sends the devastating signal that unsound fiscal policy is being rewarded. Such misguided incentives are steering the euro zone increasingly toward a debt union that is held together only by the solidity of a few states. This cannot go on forever.


The disruption of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the fragmentation of the euro area are at the heart of an argument that is ingenious from the ECB's point of view and at the same time perfidious from the critics' point of view. It allows the ECB, for a supposedly good cause, to level interest rates in the euro area so that monetary policy works better. The term transmission mechanism, however, is extremely malleable. It provides an excuse to be able to do all sorts of things. But from an investor's point of view, there may be good reasons for different interest rates, such as high debt, poor growth prospects, a government crisis, or external shocks like a pandemic or war. Organizing cohesion in Europe in such crises is the job of politicians, not the central bank.

The ECB should also make monetary policy for the entire euro area and not for a single country. Nor does it care about the 23 percent inflation in Estonia. If the monetary impulse in an important country is diminished, for example because there is a government crisis there, as was recently the case in Italy, this should not be used as an excuse to try to pinpoint the country's financing costs. As long as there is only a common monetary policy in the euro zone, but no common fiscal policy, varying interest rates were and are the most normal thing in the world, as are varying inflation rates.

The only sustainably effective bulwark against dangerously high interest rates, a fragmentation of the euro zone and a new sovereign debt crisis are sound public finances combined with growth-friendly economic policies. Here, pressure from the financial markets helps governments to stay on or return to the path of virtue. However, the ECB's anticipatory obedience shields countries from precisely this pressure from the markets. In this way, the central bank turns the level of interest rates into a (monetary) policy issue and itself into the beadle of the member countries.

Moreover, the creation of the TPI would not even have been necessary, because the OMT program (Outright Monetary Transactions), which was adopted in 2012 under Mario Draghi and has since been legally secured, provides an instrument to help countries in financial distress. However, states wishing to benefit from the OMT must submit to strict conditions. The most important prerequisite for using the OMT is that the country in question already benefits from a European bailout and meets the relevant conditions.

Draghi, who was as celebrated as he was controversial, once attached great importance to this conditionality. He described it as a fundamental element in ensuring the ECB's monetary independence and minimizing misguided incentives that lead to an even more lax fiscal policy. Now, by contrast, the ECB has set only waxy criteria for the use of the TPI. For example, the member state government must comply with the EU's fiscal framework, and the country must not have serious macroeconomic imbalances.

The TPI is ultimately the Rolls Royce among government bond purchase programs: unlimited purchase volume, unlimited purchase duration and equal treatment of all claims (pari passu). Compared to OMT, it offers better financial support with much lower conditionality. This makes it clear which program highly indebted sovereigns may want to and will use. Its initialization shows that the ECB is under considerable fiscal dominance of "Club Med," i.e., the highly indebted member countries on the Mediterranean. At the same time, this fiscal dominance will increase as a result of the TPI, as debt will continue to rise and it will create new desires.

A good twenty years after the introduction of the euro, the majority in the Governing Council of the ECB has managed to make the central bank increasingly abandon its mandate of price stability and instead concern itself with the cohesion of the euro area as it is constituted today. In this way, the ECB is increasingly undermining the meaning and wording of the European treaties, which postulate and promise financial and price stability. The announcement of the "Transmission Protection Instrument" is another milestone in the ECB's subjugation to the "Club Med" and its financing needs.
-------------------------------

[mapuc]

I could have posted it in our Climate change thread-I felt however that it had more to do with economy.

COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Given the country’s overriding importance to the global economy, potential water-driven disruptions beginning in China would rapidly reverberate through food, energy, and materials markets around the world and create economic and political turbulence for years to come.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-growing-water-crisis#author-info

Markus

[Skybird]

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung goes California:
-----------------
California residents are being told not to charge their electric cars at certain times of the day over the next few days. The urgent request comes from CAISO, the administrator of California's largest power grid. It fears extensive power outages because a heat wave has hit the state. This is causing many citizens to turn up their air conditioners to protect themselves from the heat.

Temperatures are expected to reach around 40 degrees in all parts of the country. Electricity demand will be highest between 4 and 9 p.m. During these hours, Californians are urged to conserve electricity by not turning on air conditioners until temperatures are above 26 degrees, not turning on dryers, washing machines and dishwashers, and not charging electric cars.

Just days ago, the state banned the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines from 2035, while enacting a timeline for reducing conventional cars. From 2026, one-third of new cars must be electric, then two-thirds in 2030. Currently, 16 percent of new cars sold are e-cars, and their market share of California's 30 million car fleet is 2 percent.

The call to reduce charging of e-cars during delicate periods of consumption shines a spotlight on the huge demand for electricity that California must additionally satisfy with the electrification of its auto fleet. The California State Energy Commission sees a need for an additional 5 gigawatts by 2030, assuming that the number of electric cars will then be 7.5 million instead of 600,000 now. If the entire fleet is to run on electricity, an additional 20 gigawatts would be needed. This is equivalent to 15 to 20 additional nuclear power plants, 40 average coal-fired power plants or thousands of wind turbines. Electricity demand is likely to increase even further because California is asking its citizens to give up gas and oil heating and electrify their homes.

Governor Gavin Newsom and the House of Representatives have taken a small step toward relieving the strained situation by now allowing the state's last nuclear power plant, which was facing closure, to continue running. Currently, to avoid a collapse of the power grid, grid operator CAISO has resuscitated particularly polluting power plants, including one in Oakland that burns jet fuel to generate electricity. The operators were ordered to keep the plant running now through the end of the year. Four years ago, the operators had agreed to shut down the power plant after years of protests by environmental groups that had criticized the plant's air pollution and climate damage.
--------------------------

[mapuc]

We have to totally rethink the way we use our money/stock

Because as it is now we are heading towards a huge economical explosion/implosion

Our way of living has to change too-We are on a very destructive course.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_CFpqB58cU

[Jimbuna]

Germany has announced a €65bn (£56.2bn) package of measures to ease the threat of rising energy costs, as Europe struggles with scarce supplies after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The package, much bigger than two previous ones, will include one-off payments to the most vulnerable and tax breaks to energy-intensive businesses.

Energy prices have soared since the February invasion, and Europe is trying to wean itself off Russian energy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62788447

[Skybird]

Insane: not specific enough the Germna package is, and I cannot help but think that mostly it is about appeasing the masses to delay the fury on the streets.



The radical left and the radical right both are united in calling for protests and mass demonstrations.



Its also unclear how to pay for all that. The follow-on effect of however they do it, is clear, I think: killing the buying power of the Euro even further, and thus pushing inflation up.



Germany will soon see two digit inflation, now that 9 Euro tickets and fuel rabates are gone. An end of the escalation is not in sight. I expect that Putin just waits for the right time to drive home a real devastating strike against Europe. And that will be in times of maximum need and dependency - in winter.


Expect the worst yet to come. Prepare as best as you can. Hope is for fools.

[Rockstar]

Are we witnessing the advent of Central Bank Digital Currency? It’s the devil baby :yeah: :D

https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/fednow_about.htm

FedNow℠ Service

The FedNow Service will be available to depository institutions in the United States and will enable individuals and businesses to send instant payments through their depository institution accounts. The service is intended to be a flexible, neutral platform that supports a broad variety of instant payments. At the most fundamental level, the service will provide interbank clearing and settlement that enables funds to be transferred from the account of a sender to the account of a receiver in near real-time and at any time, any day of the year. Depository institutions and their service providers will be able to build on this fundamental capability to offer value-added services to their customers.

The FedNow Service will be designed to maintain uninterrupted 24x7x365 processing with security features to support payment integrity and data security. The service will have a 24-hour business day each day of the week, including weekends and holidays. End-of-day balances will be reported on Federal Reserve accounting records for each participating depository institution on each FedNow Service business day. Access to intraday credit will be provided to participants in the FedNow Service during its business day under the same terms and conditions as for other Federal Reserve services.

The FedNow Service will provide a liquidity management tool to support instant payment services. The tool will enable participants in the FedNow Service to transfer funds to one another to support liquidity needs related to payment activity in the FedNow Service. The tool will also support participants in a private-sector instant payment service backed by a joint account at a Reserve Bank by enabling transfers between the master accounts of participants and a joint account.

The first release of the FedNow Service will also include optional features: fraud prevention tools, the ability to join initially as a receive-only participant, request for payment capability, and tools to support participants in their handling of payment inquiries. The FedNow Service will be released in phases and additional features and service enhancements will be introduced over time. Other aspects of the service, such as fee structures and governing terms, will be announced prior to the launch of the service.

The target release date for the service is May to July 2023. As development of the FedNow Service progresses, additional details will be available through established Reserve Bank channels, including more specific timing, and implementation information for depository institutions.

More information on the service can be found here. https://www.frbservices.org/financial-services/fednow



https://youtu.be/YzJjYVZowPI

[JU_88]

Many of my friends seems to have jumped on this WEF-conspiracy train, sadly.


Markus


I wish the WEF was just a stupid conspiricy theory, but its not. Everything they want to achieve is clearly publicized on their own website, they are not some secretive organisation lurking in the shaddows, Klaus and co are very forth coming and transparent about how they want to change/influence the world and how they will go about it.
What they propose sounds like an absolute nightmare to me. bascially a modern version of the days of Kings and peasents, (with no accountablility for the former and no way up for the latter)

[mapuc]

Don't know what this step will mean for us the ordinary people

The European Central Bank raises its key interest rate by 0.75 percentage points to 0.75 percent.

The ECB states this in a press release.

Never before has the central bank raised its interest rate so much at once, and with the big interest rate hammer the seriousness of the extremely high inflation in Europe is underlined.


Markus

[Skybird]

It means too little too late and that the net interests for people will remain several percent in the negative. We are in a stagflation, and it will deepen.

Needed would be lets say 15% for several months, but the Club Med would always vetoe this down.

[mapuc]

I wish the WEF was just a stupid conspiricy theory, but its not. Everything they want to achieve is clearly publicized on their own website, they are not some secretive organisation lurking in the shaddows, Klaus and co are very forth coming and transparent about how they want to change/influence the world and how they will go about it.
What they propose sounds like an absolute nightmare to me. bascially a modern version of the days of Kings and peasents, (with no accountablility for the former and no way up for the latter)

People are free to believe in what they want. It's not an uncommon thing for a huge company or companies trying to take over the world-In the term of business or trade.

The great reset-This word was spoken in a meeting(Forgot what it was) This speaker said that we need to reset the economy..somehow it has turned into the great reset.

Today-well within the lastest hour I have read comments about The British Queen Elizabeth that made me so, so sad-

I can also say those who believe in this-is also supporting Putin. Every person I know and who believe in this is also saying it's Putin is is at war with Zelenskyy and WEF.

Edit
Forgot to post this wiki page about The great Reset and WEF
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

I'm putting this here, in lack of a bbetter suited thread.

Bravo! More of this! And across all Europe! The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:
-------------

Industrial tycoon Kjell Inge Rökke is one of the richest Norwegians. But he will soon pay his taxes elsewhere.

Switzerland is centrally located, and Lugano is a beautiful city: This is the gist of a letter that the Norwegian industrial tycoon Kjell Inge Rökke sent on Monday to the "co-shareholders and employees" of his company empire. He let them know that he had moved to the same city.

It was a difficult decision, but now it has been made. His group of companies, Aker ASA, which is the country's largest private employer with around 18,000 jobs in Norway and as many worldwide, will of course continue to work in Norway. But he had learned during the pandemic that he could be active as a company leader even when he was not directly on the ground, Rökke wrote.

When Rökke, one of Norway's best-known captains of industry, moves from the posh western Oslo suburb of Asker to southern Switzerland, many millions in taxes disappear with him. The letter says nothing about this, but it was immediately clear to politicians and commentators that this was the reason. A professor emeritus of economics at the Oslo School of Economics did not mince his words: Rökke may extol the virtues of Switzerland, but everyone knows what it is really about. Rökke's move is a "frontal attack on the Norwegian wealth tax," he said.

This has been raised for the fiscal year 2022 by the Social Democrat-led government that has been in office for a year, in line with the Social Democrats' election promise to make the rich pay more for the common good. Prominent Norwegian Social Democrat Hadia Tajik commented on the fact that with Rökke a super-rich person was now leaving with the bitter words that he had thus decided to no longer contribute to the common interests of Norwegian society.

Of course, Rökke must have known that his departure would be interpreted as tax evasion. Therefore, he did not forget to mention in his letter that Lugano was neither particularly cheap nor particularly favorable in terms of taxes. Nevertheless, in the Ticino regulations for a solution based on lump-sum taxation, his specialists must have found a variant that appealed to him.

If one believes the speculations of the Norwegian business newspaper "Dagens Naeringsliv" ("DN"), Norway will lose its best taxpayer with Rökke. Since 2008, the newspaper wrote, Rökke has probably paid the treasury around 1.5 billion kroner, the equivalent of about 145 million Swiss francs, mainly through property tax.

In a recent interview with Rökke, "DN" accused the political left of acting as if it alone had a "moral compass. In doing so, he said, it escapes the fact that someone who has earned a fortune can also have moral and social values. He himself is prepared to use half of his fortune for philanthropic purposes. But he wants to be able to decide for himself and on the basis of his family's values.

Rökke can also point to the fact that he once moved to Norway with a considerable fortune. At the age of 21, he had emigrated to America and, according to his own account, without any education and initially without any means, had a brilliant business career in the fishing industry, which made him rich. When he was 42, he returned to Norway and made his mark there, not least as a supporter of the Social Democrats. Now, at 63, he wants to start a new phase of his life once again.

His departure sets alarm bells ringing among left-wing parties. It is quite possible that other super-rich people will follow Rökke's example. Not only does the government continue to back raising the wealth tax, while the opposition wants to reverse it. It is also apparently considering extending the current five-year period after which emigrants can opt out of the Norwegian tax system altogether.

A Norwegian tax expert told television that many wealthy people in Norway are aware that this period could become longer. For those planning to relocate for this reason, it is therefore "now or never." And there are apparently signals from the circles of tax lawyers that the number of requests for advisory services in this regard has recently increased.

---------------

[Skybird]

Prices in this country are rising unabated. The recent rash of producer prices in Germany does not bode well for the further course of inflation. In an interview with "Mission Money," economist Hans-Werner Sinn explains when price inflation will peak.

Our industry has become heart-sick, diagnoses Germany's best-known economist Hans-Werner Sinn in an interview. With our partner "Mission Money," the former Ifo president also explains how far inflation will rise. Here's an excerpt:

Question: Inflation in Europe is at nine percent. Was that it already, Mr. Sinn?

Sinn: No, it wasn't. And the reason we know that is because we have a leading indicator for consumer goods price inflation. These are industrial producer prices and they are moving much faster. In Germany, we ended up with over seven, or about 37 percent, inflation.

In the case of industrial producer prices, [one can follow this] empirically in Germany quite well, how consumer goods inflation and producer price inflation are related. Because we have both series back to 1950, we can see what kind of correlation there is. The result is that one-third of industrial producer price inflation rates carry over into consumer price inflation rates, but with a certain time lag of three months plus X. This is how it has been in the past. It is, of course, only an average stochastic relationship, not a deterministic one.

But that's how it was. Everybody can check that. And if we use this measure again - 1/3 of 37 percent - that is more than the 8.8 percent that Eurostat is currently reporting for Germany. We are in the double-digit range.

Prost Mahlzeit. :Kaleun_Cheers: Things will get worse, and for years to come. I expect onflation two stay two digits for years, and gas prices not dropping to comparably normal levels again for most if not all of this decade. If ever. We are hanging on America's drip (LNG).

[Jimbuna]

It's certainly looking like doom and gloom atm but hopefully that will be short lived.

[Skybird]

AdG writes:
-----------------------------

The continent of the living dead

A state-made flood of money lies between the illusion of wealth and reality - for now. "Rich Europe" has long been a graveyard of the living dead. It is caught in a snowball system.

"I'm not sure there will even be a Europe next year," said an American financial commentator in early September. The Norwegian energy group Equinor had just announced an estimate that European energy companies face margin calls of €1.5 trillion. Margin is a security payment in forward transactions. Buyer and seller enter into a long-term supply contract. Price and quantity are fixed in advance. If the price now rises above the contractually fixed one, the risk that the seller will no longer deliver increases, as it is a losing business for him.

As security for the buyer, the seller is now called upon to deposit the difference between the agreed price and the current market price - a margin call. And the energy companies will soon have to service this. So the difference between long-term agreed delivery prices of the European energy companies and market procurement prices is 1.5 trillion euros. And the Norwegians say they have estimated conservatively. The European states are now stepping in to save their energy companies. They promise to pay for the losses without making anyone poorer in real terms. That is the promise of the modern welfare state. And it has kept it since the end of the Second World War.

Since the 1970s, public and private debt have been rising steadily. In the past, before the Second World War, economic crises could be read very well in the development of private debt. A crisis was followed by a painful deleveraging of the private sector. Unprofitable firms no longer received credit, had to generate surpluses or disappeared from the market. Households slid into abject poverty. The dead were declared dead and buried. But growth quickly resumed.

After the Second World War, private debt remains as calm during the crisis as the sea during a calm. It rises comfortably and steadily. Crises can now be seen in government debt. Losses are borne by the state. Companies do not disappear from the market and households do not become poor. It's a Ponzi scheme. The state steps in with transfers wherever there is a shortfall and promises growth in return, with which the increased national debt can be paid in the future.

The markets believe in the countries' promise of growth and finance the debt. The population believes in the state and believes that it will absorb every risk - or can you survive without a supermarket? It believes that the currency is a safe means of transaction that can be exchanged for goods tomorrow just as well as today. As long as everyone in the chain believes in the promises made, the living dead shuffling through the streets are not even noticeable. If all the promises made can be kept, they are no big deal.

Welfare states are in debt far beyond their officially stated levels. In addition to the explicit debt, which in the case of Italy is currently equivalent to 150 per cent of annual economic output, there is the implicit national debt, i.e. all the promises made by the state to pay pensions, social security and health benefits in the future. According to a calculation by the financial scientist Bernd Raffelhüschen, these promises currently add up to almost 330 percent of GDP for Germany. This means that Germany does not have the stated 71 per cent national debt, but 400 per cent national debt.

A country in which - according to a recently published study - every second full-time employee would like to have a four-day week with full wage compensation. Yet Germany would have to work for four years to be able to pay for the promises made. The fact that no one has believed in this for a long time can be seen from the fact that the volume of euro government bonds bought by the ECB now corresponds to 95.5 percent of the newly issued debt instruments of the euro member states. This is a good old-fashioned Ponzi scheme. We don't realise it yet, but we have long since become so much poorer. Only the veil of the flood of money still lies between the illusion of wealth and that of reality. Rich Europe" has long been a graveyard of the living dead. Only the enormous national debt bubble stands between us and eternal rest.
Debt in itself is not the problem. It is a wonderful way to benefit today from future productivity gains. For example, burdens can be spread over several generations. 30 billion for Uniper here, 400 billion loans for the implementation of the European Green Deal there, short-time working allowance, fuel rebate, pension level, nursing care insurance, health care, infrastructure. Can be done. When interest rates are low and growth is high.

In a 2019 speech, former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard urged countries to take on more debt in the face of persistently low interest rates. As long as growth exceeds interest rates, a country can simply grow out of debt; the debt to economic output ratio automatically shrinks. If the low interest rate environment persists and economies continue to grow, the debt path is sustainable.

Today, Blanchard would certainly not deliver his speech like that. He is not a bad economist and knows that government debt itself affects the interest rate, but also growth. It was not for nothing that economists Reinhard and Rogoff called their 2008 book on the financial crisis "This time is different!" - this time is different. Crises become crises because before they erupt enough people assured us that there was nothing to worry about because this time everything was different. Meanwhile, the zombies sit on the debt bubble like beanbags, smiling moronically.

What Blanchard ignores is that the state always spends its money most inefficiently. The intertwining of business and public administration create opportunities for lobbying power and favours. They create new incentives to use the centralised system for their own purposes. If the market no longer believes in the promise of growth, the interest rates at which the state can borrow rise. The welfare state receives a margin call. It is supposed to deposit a security for the promises it has made. And it can't. Work for four years, just to pay off their debts. After a few days they die of thirst.

The emperor is naked. Europe is a graveyard. Either the losses are now real. As before the Second World War, a crisis suddenly makes people poorer again. As in any Ponzi scheme, the loser is the one who is still invested when the music has already stopped. However, no politician has any interest in this. People fed on zombies will hardly vote for them. It is better for everyone to sit quietly on the debt bubble. The central bank steps in. It feeds the losses in the real economy with new money until the debts are no longer worth anything due to the inflation that has been caused. In November 1923, the 164 billion marks in war debts of the German Empire were equivalent to 16.4 pennies. National Socialism fed on this misery.

Such a margin call was served on some British pension funds this week. Regulatory requirements oblige them, like all other regulated pension vehicles, to invest in low-risk long-term assets. According to the government regulator, government bonds have zero risk. They are absolutely safe. So says the state. When the British government unveiled a debt-financed mini-budget on 23 September, the pound and government bonds took a tumble. The market repriced the risk of a sovereign debt crisis. Holding pounds became less attractive for fear of rising inflation. The government's promise of being able to repay debts easily through more growth in the future was no longer enough of a security. The fall in prices put pension funds in such dire straits that the Bank of England launched a £65 billion purchase programme to stabilise the price of government bonds. The Bank of England finances the budget deficit of the British government. Continental European conditions on the island.

At the presentation of the gas price cap on 29 September, Finance Minister Lindner mentioned several times that German budgetary policy was not comparable to the British. The "German government bonds [are] the gold standard in the world". Ultimately, the ability of the political system of the welfare states to reform will determine whether and how well they will survive this sovereign debt crisis that has been building for decades. The UK and the US are built on intelligently designed political institutions. Checks and balances and the tradition of the Scottish Enlightenment are an important ace up the sleeve, though no guarantee of weathering the perfect storm. They have historically identified and corrected policy aberrations. The Fed continues to raise interest rates, contrary to market expectations, and sells securities purchased during the crisis.

Perhaps the next US president will introduce austerity, reform entitlements to the state. Competition among the states is the kind of subsidiarity that the EU now seems to despise. Britain has been able to break away from the centrally planned and unreformable institutional structure of the European Union. That alone promises better growth prospects for the island than for any member state. The Bank of England will also start a balance sheet contraction, selling £80 billion of securities over the next 12 months. These countries all have a large graveyard but still have a village square where a well-attended weekly market takes place. There is still hope that the inhabitants can oppose the zombie apocalypse.

The EU, on the other hand, is a zombie itself. Everything we are currently witnessing in the Eurozone's monetary and fiscal policy is ghouls. The sustainability of the sovereign debt of the euro countries is only given if interest rates for government bonds remain low. The ECB would rather accept inflation rates beyond its mandate than let Italy go bankrupt and sink the euro. The ECB has lost its credibility. It raises interest rates, triggers a recession and in the same breath stabilises the government bonds of stumbling euro countries. In other words, it is heading for yield curve control. This means that a central bank buys a country's paper until the desired interest rate is reached. Yield curve control was used by the Fed during the Second World War, for example, to keep the costs of the enormous war debt under control.

The new "Transmission Protection Instrument" allows the ECB to intervene whenever member states have to pay the wrong price - i.e. higher interest rates - for their debt on the market. Without a significant reduction of the balance sheet - i.e. the destruction of money massively created in recent years - the ECB will not be able to get a grip on the monetary phenomenon of inflation. But that would not only break Italy's neck. The recession in the real economy will be absorbed by the new public debt subsidised by the ECB. The welfare state continues to breathe life into the zombies. The reconstruction fund, which for the first time gives the Commission the right to borrow and tax, is not subject to any effective control.

In view of the Ukraine and energy crises, there are also repeated calls to set up a similar instrument. On the part of both monetary and fiscal policy, a change of direction is simply no longer possible. The recent announcement by the Commission to create an emergency instrument for the internal market is the final nail in the coffin for the market-based system. The price system - the best allocation mechanism of scarce goods that we know - is shattered. After all, back then I had to think about what inscription my gravestone should bear for my profile in the Abi book: Lisa in the sky with diamonds. John Lennon is said to have alluded to LSD with the title of the song. Perhaps the only way to experience a zombie apocalypse, at least in beautiful colours.

https://www.achgut.com/artikel/der_kontinent_der_lebenden_toten

-----------------------------------------


Good night, sleep well. I wish the consequences of this status quo would escape my lifetime, unfortunately I believe to know they wont. Maybe I will have a lucky accident just in time. :hmmm:

The only solution to the system crisis is the destruction of the system. System collapse. But the breed of smart minds who have brought us to this pass are standing ready to establish a copy of the very same system afterwards.

Its not about attacking capitalism. Its about attacking FIAT money and lobbyism, the two root evils and gravediggers of every economic system, planned economy or market economy alike. FIAT money leads to lacking fiscal discipline, lobbyism leads to monopolism, both singular or in combination they are lethal for every state and civilization - always.

[Skybird]

FOCUS disillusionises us again.

---------------------------------

In Europe, inflation is not only being allowed to drift, it is being fueled. In these days, of all times, when all politicians promise on TV to fight it. The explosive thing is that European politicians and central bank governors know what they are doing.

The galloping inflation and the heating up of the world climate have one thing in common: Both do not come over us like a force of nature. Both are man-made. It's man-made, as they always say at climate conferences.

Only the climate catastrophe, and that's where the difference begins, is being fought with united forces. Presidents and Nobel laureates, business leaders and a dozen international conferences have made sure of it: the decarbonization of Western economies is a done deal. War and energy price explosion may delay it, but they can no longer stop it.

Inflation is going a different way. In Europe, it's not just being allowed to drift, it's being fueled. In these days, of all times, when all politicians promise on TV to fight inflation, in reality the next big push is being prepared.

The German state sets a bad example

Without coordinated counteraction - all currently available data say so - we have entered a decade of exorbitant demonetization, which will please the debtor and mean tangible, even painful, losses of prosperity for all other citizens.

Many companies, and indeed all those that cannot pass on the effects of inflation to their customers, will not survive this decade. Inflation will first depress - and then destroy - their profits.

We cannot accuse European politicians and central bank governors of ignorance in this fateful hour: They know what they are doing.

1 The German state, which promises everything to everyone in social policy, is setting a bad example. The debt brake of the Basic Law is being circumvented by borrowing outside the federal budget. Meanwhile, unofficial debt exceeds official borrowing by more than five times.

The government subsidization of energy prices is not the last stroke, but it is the most massive so far. 200 billion euros, or 1.5 times all DAX profits in the pre-crisis year 2021, is available for this consumptive expenditure. The money will not be invested in a green technology of the future, but will be burned up in the truest sense of the word.

The Chancellor's Office has softly denied this

2 The bad example has a contagious effect on the other Europeans, who are now insisting on equal rights. The continent is facing a new debt orgy; on the sidelines of the EU summit in Prague, Scholz signaled his openness to joint borrowing for all of Europe, as Bloomberg claims to have learned exclusively from the chancellor's entourage.

The chancellor's office has softly denied this with the words "nothing is known of such plans". The truth is: Germany is helping to stabilize the high price level with its government gas price brake, which is causing outrage in Italy, Sweden and elsewhere.

German assistance as a loan guarantor and thus as a lender of last resort for the capital market - as already happened in the case of the Corona reconstruction program - fits in with the checkbook diplomacy in Europe to date.

At the ECB, many no longer want to fight inflation but recession

3. there is already no longer any inclination in the ECB to continue a tighter interest rate policy during the recession. At the next meeting of the ECB Executive Board, there is likely to be another upward move in interest rates.

But for the coming year, when the effects of the recession, the winter and the energy price explosion will be felt by all, important forces in the central bank's leadership circle no longer want to fight inflation, but recession.

The historical experience that you end up with both inflation and recession cannot slow down the southern countries in their ambition to fire up the money printing machine again.

They want to inflate their debts and in no way adjust their spending patterns to actual revenues. They regard the ECB Tower in Frankfurt as an oversized ATM.

The second-round effect is coming as surely as the Amen in the church

4. employee representatives all over Europe will soon be making their contribution to driving up prices. That is what their members expect. Just yesterday, the Verdi union and the civil servants' association demanded 10.5 percent more income for federal and local government employees. IG Metall will enter the collective bargaining round with an 8 percent demand.

Companies are now also calculating with significantly rising wages. In view of this historically high rate of monetary devaluation, there is no ethical justification for denying the working population, of all people, this compensation payment.

The so-called second-round effect will come as surely as the Amen in the church. Any union leader who calls for moderation now is risking his job.

High wages, and therein lies the problem, dampen the impact of current inflation on individuals, thereby driving up future inflation. Prices drive wages, whereupon wages drive prices. These are precisely the ingredients for long-lasting inflation.

5 High interest rates alone, which further complicates the situation in Europe, are not enough to stop currency devaluation at present. This is because, unlike in the U.S. - where the government's nearly two trillion dollar stimulus program drove up inflation - in Europe it is the supply side that is driving up prices - i.e., lack of energy and broken supply chains.

Political calculations rule when it comes to fighting inflation

Prof. Lars Feld says: "Industry either doesn't produce because it finds energy too expensive, or it can't produce because it doesn't have the parts and there's still a supply chain issue." That means inflationary pressures are intensifying because supply can't expand at all into government-increased demand.

6. In the climate change movement, it is always Follow the Science. This does not apply at all to the fight against inflation. Here, political calculations rule, and the voice of economists is considered rather annoying.

Yesterday's surprising downward forecast of inflation for 2023 by Economics Minister Habeck is based on the rose-tinted assumption of laws that have not yet been passed and goes against the advice of all economic research institutes. They expect inflation to continue rising. Habeck versus the rest of the world.

Conclusion: this policy is short-sighted, not sustainable. The state does not want to eliminate our suffering in the present, only to narcotize it. The savior appears as the perpetrator and prepares that wave of inflation which it claims to eliminate. Next to us the deluge.

----------------------------------

Some more deelaying of the already inevitable collapse, thats what its about. Additionally bad is that the German spendings are not investments, but one-time-fires fueling good mood in the electorate for some weeks - and then the money is gone, the debts are up, and no structural change and investment has been done. Nothing is diffrerent to before - just that immense additional credit has been blown up.


Needless to say: with thes ehuge debt bruden and interests to be paid, the states have practically no space for active and cretaive pöolicy-,making anymore, all taxes are spend on pensions, social payments and interest payments.


The situation is an utmost and complete desaster already now. I am certai n they know and, when cams and mikes ar eoff, they tlak amongst each other that the Euro and EU already are done. Stupidity meets criminal energy.

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:
---------------------
After a long period of appeasement, the ECB now also sees the dangers of inflation. The protocol of the last meeting, which have now been published, paint a gloomy picture of the situation.



LINK: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2022/html/ecb.mg221006~a5f7fb03f3.de.html



The ECB's Governing Council will hold its next meeting on October 26. It is almost certain that there will be another major interest rate hike. This is because there is no sign of any easing in the inflation situation. The inflation rate for the euro zone is now ten percent.

What the central bankers think about the situation is revealed in the minutes of the last meeting , which were published a few days ago. Several interesting things become clear in them:

1) Not all Governing Council members realize the seriousness of the situation.

Not all members of the Governing Council are behind the latest interest rate hike of 0.75 percentage points. The minutes only mention a "very large number" of Council members who voted in favor. Other central bankers argued for a smaller move. According to the minutes, they considered an increase of 0.5 percentage points to be sufficient to make clear the will to further normalize monetary policy. To be honest, I think that's a hammer. In the current situation with inflation rates, it is hard for me to believe that hesitant action is enough.

2) Even an economic downturn might not be enough.

In addition, it was argued that the nature of the inflation process had changed. Inflation had begun to reinforce itself, so that even a projected significant slowdown in growth would not be enough to bring inflation back to target levels. That doesn't sound good at all either. After all, that's actually the mechanism: lower demand (due to a weak economy) leads to falling prices. So there will be no quick fix to the inflation problem.

3) Inflation can still rise despite falling incomes

Another concern of the euro central bankers fits in with this: according to the minutes, they fear that the impact of the war and the pandemic on the economy's production capacities will be greater and more protracted than expected. If the supply side is more affected than the demand side, they say, this could increase inflationary pressures even as real incomes fall. Translated, this means that if supply and demand fall in equal measure, the inflation problem will not change. There is still too little supply for too much demand - just at a different level. So either supply must increase for the same level of demand, or demand must fall more for the same level of supply. Again, this suggests that only a hard recession can lower inflation.

4) People are losing faith in the ECB

Finally, central bankers talked about how a number of indicators suggest that longer-term inflation expectations are no longer anchored. In July (and again in August), the median inflation expectation for the next three years in an ECB survey was three percent. In other words: More and more people no longer believe that the ECB can bring inflation back down to two percent in the medium term as promised. This is also a cause for concern: Rising inflation expectations are a serious problem, as they can quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Only by raising interest rates further can the ECB make a credible case that it is serious about fighting inflation. So one can only hope that the ECB's Governing Council will not buckle when the recession feared by many becomes visible. After all, what happens if inflation expectations were to become completely unanchored is shown by Turkey as an extreme case. Here, inflation is now over 80 percent.

Inflation problem will not disappear so quickly

All in all, the record makes clear just how big the inflation problem is. And it shows that it will be difficult and painful to get it back under control.
------------------------------------


The German government already glosses over it, expecting a yearly inflation in Germany of 8% this year and 7% next year. Ha! We are at officially 10% right now, I say the real inflation is severla points higher already and since many months, and it will get much worse over the next year.


The rightly much-feared wage-inflation-spiral has started.



Its horrifying to see how history repeats itself and nobody wants to see it. Everybody is busy with spilling ever more kerosin into the fire. The war has not caused this, Corona has not caused this - both are only catalysts speeding up the speed of the process.


Turkey has just preceded us. Their inflation now is 80%. The ECB's policy is not much better than Erdoghan's decisions.Personally I do not want to completely rule out ECB zone inflation rates in the twenties. Its possible. The interest rate rises by the eCb will soon be bropught to a stop and then revers,e when Club Med economies are in danger to collapse. Instead one will buy them a few days of tiem at the price of letting it all collapse later on.



One must hope almost that the recession will rattle everbody right to his bones that he looses his senses, and will kill a huge, huge ammount of the zombie economy there is. Wont get any pretty, but a bloody mess. If there is a chance left still, then here: a bone breaking, earth-shaking recession. The social costs will be accordingly, but we must go through this needle's eye. And even then its not certain the EU and ECB zone will recover. Messy administration for too long time causes messy consequences. Reality knows neither pardon nor sentimentality.


Personally I think realistically seen the battle already is lost.

[Skybird]

According to a survey, a quarter of companies in Germany are planning to cut jobs because of the rise in energy prices. Fifty-seven percent said they wanted to postpone planned investments because of this. And 17 percent of the companies planned to abandon energy-intensive business areas altogether, according to the Ifo survey published on Monday for the Family Business Foundation. In April, the companies had answered the same questions much more optimistically.

According to the survey, 13 percent of the companies are thinking about stopping production, nine percent about relocating operations abroad. According to the survey, almost all companies (90 percent) want to increase their prices in order to absorb the burden of energy costs.

Rainer Kirchdörfer, Chairman of the Foundation, called the results of the survey an alarm signal: "For some time now, we have been seeing a creeping relocation of industrial value creation. We will only feel this as deindustrialization and loss of prosperity in years - but then irreversibly." This "fatal" development in Germany as a business location is accelerating, Kirchdörfer continued. Companies are scaling back manufacturing in Germany or relocating production to places where energy costs, taxes and bureaucratic burdens are lower.

(Die Welt).
--------------------------

It has begun. Next year the massacre will become much more apparent. Euro crisis, debts crisis, inflation, broken logistics chains, Corona, energy prices - thats some crisis too much. The wage-price-spiral has started to turn, and is accelerating its pace more and more.