(Crazy) economy news [Archive] - Page 2 - SUBSIM Radio Room Forums

Skybird

10-28-22, 05:48 AM

This opinion piece includes economy, but goes beyond it. The NEUE ZÜRCHER ZEITUNG writes:
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Who is footing the bill for the insanity of recent years?

Since the financial crisis, central principles of democracy and the market economy have dissolved in the frenzy of cheap money. Inflation is now raising the question of who are the losers in an era of excess.

They called Donald Trump a clown and triumphed when he was voted out. They called Boris Johnson a clown and triumphed when he had to resign. Defenders of liberal democracy bathed in the frothy feeling that they had beaten and weakened the populists.

How wrong one can be. Post-fascist Giorgia Meloni has made her dream come true and has been Italian prime minister for a week. The right-wing populist Sweden Democrats are effectively part of the new coalition in Stockholm. Most worryingly, however, Emmanuel Macron's government only used a decree to get its budget through parliament, which is packed with right-wing and left-wing extremists. In the long run, such emergency measures destabilize any regime - and that in the EU's second hegemonic power after Germany.

The odd couple of Johnson and Trump is also experiencing a second spring. One is experiencing a renaissance among the Tories as prime minister of the heart. Compared to the state of affairs in his party, he seems almost a paragon of predictability.

The other hovers over American politics as a nemesis; the only open question is whether he will run himself in 2024 or leave the presidential candidacy to a person of his choice.

With every crisis, capitalism does away with itself a little more

The advocates of liberal democracy made the mistake of confusing cause with effect. Neither Trump and Johnson nor the motley crew of other populists represent the central problem. They are only a symptom.

The challenge that, while not destroying liberal democracy, is putting considerable strain on it is the crisis of legitimacy of the market economy. It began with the near-collapse of the financial system and has continued ever since.

The distortions are economic in origin. However, those responsible have demonstrated an astonishing technical mastery in keeping the machinery running despite ever new shocks - whether Greek bankruptcy, pandemic or Ukraine war. It is more difficult to contain the political fallout. Liberal democracy is experiencing an ongoing crisis of accountability and trust.

In 2008, we all learned a term from the unwieldy slang of the globalized economy: "too big to fail." Anyone deemed relevant to the survival of the system must be bailed out by the state.

Initially, financial institutions such as UBS and Commerzbank benefited from this. Now, the illustrious circle of the indispensable also includes energy companies such as Uniper in Germany and Axpo in Switzerland.

In the past, however, company bosses at UBS, for example, regarded the use of state aid as the ultimate failure and resigned, but today bailouts are seen as inevitable as rain and snow.

Christoph Brand, the CEO of Axpo, is making no move to step down. Even the company's owners, some Swiss cantons, are only looking at their toes with embarrassment, leaving the bail-out to the central government in Bern. Federalism has obviously degenerated into a fair-weather event.

Individual responsibility, the basis of every market economy, is eroding. A creeping process of habituation makes the anomaly not exactly the rule, but no longer a scandal either.

When a select few receive the accolade of systemic relevance, the broad masses do not want to follow suit. "No company should run the risk of falling through the cracks of vital support." This is not said by a trade unionist or a functionary of a social association, but by Albrecht von der Hagen, CEO of the German Association of Family Businesses.

In the past, bankruptcies were still part of capitalism. Today, even entrepreneurs are calling for subsidies in a stern tone. Who could blame them in view of high energy prices? Even during the pandemic, many industrialized countries distributed so much money that fewer bankruptcies were recorded than in normal years.

With every crisis that capitalism settles in this way, it gets rid of itself a little more. When responsibility dwindles, so does trust. People are prone to envy and resentment, so it is easy to assume that others are benefiting from the windfall while you yourself are getting too little.

The syndrome of the presumed short-sighted is one of the most dangerous driving forces in politics and one of the sources from which populism draws.

The era of exaggerations seems like an evil haunting

In an age of ultra-loose monetary policy and emergency bailouts that can only be counted in trillions, you don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to wonder who is footing the bill for the perceived insanity of recent years. If the high inflation does not end next year, the middle class will discover that they are among the big losers. The savers, the prudent and the high performers will then be the dumb ones. This arouses fears of relegation. These are reinforced by the feeling of being ruled by anonymous powers.

Who is to understand why low-quality real estate in the USA is triggering a global financial crisis. Who doesn't think negative interest rates and stock markets driven to all-time highs by crises of all things are evil spooks? Is high government debt the devil's work or a blessing, as a growing crowd of economists claims? The answers are so complicated that they only create new feelings of powerlessness.

In the global and European financial crises, central banks grew in importance far beyond their original mandate of monetary stability. They became the last lifeline of the system. At the same time, their special independent position relates only to their narrowly defined actual mandate.

Restraint and political tact would therefore be called for. The opposite is happening. The obviously overburdened president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, also wants to save the climate. Instead of fighting inflation with all her might, she is also squinting with one eye on Italy's national debt. Lagarde is venturing even further into the forbidden zone of government financing.

The gap between the scope of such decisions and their democratic legitimacy has widened in the last decade. This is also true of constitutional judges, whose expertise does not keep pace with their judgmentalism. The German Constitutional Court, for example, feels called upon to issue detailed guidelines on climate policy.

Judges and central bankers, the entire caste of parastatal functionaries has gained considerable influence. They act with technical virtuosity, but have never been confirmed in a popular election. This, too, is part of the ambiguous phenomena of this epoch.

Neoliberalism has won itself to death

The usurpation of powers, however, fits into a time in which state authorities feel responsible for everything. The refrain is: Necessity knows no commandment, and it often serves to undermine or abolish proven control mechanisms. This damages democracy, which is based on the separation of powers, clear responsibilities and trust in the predictability of the rules of the game.

Power is being dissipated - not because ministers, central bankers or constitutional judges are striving for dictatorial powers, but because parliaments and the media can no longer find a precisely defined addressee for their claim to control.

Neoliberalism came into being with the promise of less state and more private initiative and thus an allocation of responsibility. It has won itself to death. The opposing forces have long since gained the upper hand.

After the collapse of the financial world, which was only narrowly averted in 2008, Joe Ackermann boasted that Deutsche Bank did not need state aid. He was met with scorn and derision when the Frankfurt-based bank later went into a tailspin. But he was right. He insisted on the responsibility of managers to make their companies crisis-proof in good time. Ackermann just didn't realize that he belonged to a world that had disappeared. The new era calls for other role models: politicians who open up rescue packages; managers who willingly slip under them; and citizens who turn into grateful charity recipients because of all the rescue packages.
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Jimbuna

10-28-22, 06:37 AM

Meant to post this a couple of weeks ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JmevmE6AnI

Skybird

11-01-22, 05:27 PM

The AdG writes:
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Madame Clueless and the balance sheet fraud at the highest level

The price value of the ECB's bond-buying programs urgently needs to be adjusted downward. But this is not happening. This is balance sheet fraud at the highest level. But the ECB is a notorious lawbreaker. The question, however, is how long this game will last without citizens revolting.

At 2:45 p.m. on 10/27-22, an increasingly uncertain-looking ECB President Lagarde attempted to explain the Governing Council's monetary policy decision to raise all three interest rates by 0.75 percent. This non-news - the markets had already anticipated such an increase - hides the ECB's ever-growing problem: that in the "targeted longer-term refinancing operations" (TLTRO-III), it no longer wants to keep its promise to banks to bonus the loans lent out by means of special fees.

Already in 2019, in the third phase of the TLTRO operation, which is technically difficult to understand, voices had been raised rejecting a central incentive control of lending through bonified loans by the ECB in view of the overflowing liquidity. Today, the ECB is faced with the difficult-to-communicate problem that TLTRO-III has become a significant source of income for banks, which must now be shut down. The business model enabled by the ECB was quite simple: banks borrowed low interest TLTRO and reinvested the money at the ECB/Eurosystem since the interest rate turnaround because deposit rates there were 0.5 percent. These windfall profits - not even discovered by Madame Lagarde for a long time - were increasingly problematized by the expert public.

So while the ECB chief was ranting about cultural diversity and her faith in people in summer interviews with tabloid media, the more knowledgeable staff at her institution were addressing the TLTRO danger. In the Oct. 27 press conference following the Governing Council, the decision-makers within the ECB did not want to overwhelm Madame Lagarde with explanations of the TLTRO course change. Therefore, shortly after the conference, the end of the TLTRO program in its current form was published as a "technical recalibration statement."

How long will this game last?

Quite incomprehensible are the decisions to continue the reinvestment of the bond-buying programs, which is flushing triple-digit billions onto banks' balance sheets and flooding the market with liquidity at a time when liquidity-absorbing measures would be appropriate given the inflation rate of over 10 percent for October. Again, the ECB is at odds with reality and failing to meet its obligation to justify its actions.

Of course, Ms. Lagarde's amateurish statements fail to mention the ECB's crucial problem. The interest rate hikes that will now follow will reduce the market value of the approximately 5 trillion bonds in the euro system. With a reduction in value of an estimated 400 billion euros per one percentage point of additional interest, the ECB or the euro system would have to report considerable losses, which would even eat up the equity cover of the national central banks - not to mention their own capital cover. Ms. Lagarde does not say a word about this, because the ECB has authorized itself to continue buying bonds at the historical purchase price in the future.

This is balance sheet fraud of the highest order. But the ECB is not only a sovereign dictator, it is also a notorious lawbreaker. The question, however, is how long this game will last without the citizens revolting. After all, central banks belong to the respective people, not to anonymous technocrats in Brussels. This also applies to the Bundesbank. Dr. Joachim Nagel, its president, should remember this as soon as possible.
--------------------------

This super-stupid woman is a hollow torso without a brain, and she always was like this. Babbling stupid drivel all her "careers" long, I cannot recall to have ever received a signal from her that could qualify as a sign for intelligent life.

Ein warmer Furz im Abendwind.

Rockstar

11-04-22, 09:44 AM

Master of the obvious

Hedge fund giant Elliott warns looming hyperinflation could lead to ‘global societal collapse’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fund-giant-elliott-warns-looming-hyperinflation-could-lead-to-global-societal-collapse-11667470081

Elliott executives warned clients that the idea that “‘we will not panic because we have seen this before’ does not comport with the current facts.”

They blamed central bank policymakers for the current global economic situation, saying they had been “dishonest” about the reason for high inflation. They said lawmakers had shirked responsibility by blaming it on supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic instead of loose monetary policy imposed two years ago during the COVID-19 peak...

The firm, led by billionaire Paul Singer and Jonathan Pollock, told its clients that “investors should not assume they have ‘seen everything”because they have been through the peaks and troughs of the 1987 crash, the dot-com boom and the 2008 global financial crisis and previous bear and bull markets.

They added that the “extraordinary” period of cheap money is coming to an end and has “made possible a set of outcomes that would be at or beyond the boundaries of the entire post-WWII period.”

The letter said the world is “on the path to hyperinflation”, which could lead to “global societal collapse and civil or international strife”

Ya think? I’d say we’re well on our way already.

Skybird

11-04-22, 11:38 AM

^ Its a multi-factorial crisis, and it all comes down on us now simultaneously.

- The FIAT money crisis since Bretton Woods collapse.
- Population explosion and aggressively expanding emerging markets/economies.
- Cheating fiscal policies and the central banks' fractional reserve keeping.
- Keynesianism and overspending by credit taken not based on consummation saved, but taken form the future (which makes this credit conusammaiton that in the future will lack).
- No lessons learnedf from 2007/08.
- Climate crisis.
- A pandemic, corona lockdowns and collapsed logistical supply chains.
- War.
- In the West: inner political destabilizations triggered by by external hostile sabotage and home-grown radical populists.
- Gallopping inflation.
- Suicidal debts.
- Killing energy costs, and (in Germ,any at least) wanted further cutting of energy supplies to push costs even further.
- Unrealistic green "ideologism".
- The beginning of an exodus of the producing industry from Europe to Asia where energy costs less.
- Monumental incompetence and unscrupolousness of the political personell, a high grade of lobbyistic corruption and conspiration.
- Mass migration.
- Cancerous bureaucracy that strangles everything and everyone.

A system completely out of controlability and managability. Half-hearted attempts to tackle problems too late, by too little.

No, I do not see how we get off this train again before it derails. Its too uch, and we have been indoifferent for way too long. Now its to late, i fear we are beyond the point of no return.

Catfish

11-04-22, 02:39 PM

Rockstar

11-04-22, 04:24 PM

Skybird

11-04-22, 04:47 PM

If you ever tried to do your annual tax declaration in Germany you will wonder how this economy was ever able to thrive :D
It is not only the taxes but to fill out all these forms correctly.. not even tax consultants are able to see through this jungle anymore :doh:
I had to do the Grundsteuererklärung. A nightmare, and they did not even manage to set up the digital infrastructure correctly. For weeks they drove me first crazy, then desperate when I tried to enter the legitimation code after authentication received. Thge option to enter such legitmation was not given, never! :o And after 6 weeks, yes, six weeks, all of a sudden it appeared where before it appeare dnot, and the pages also build up severla tiems as fast as before, and I was able tio finally squeeze this egg into the loo where it belongs. The fault was no doubt at the server's end of the line. I was close to demanding them to send me paper forms.

Germany is a nuthouse, and it falls, it is in free fall and nobody wants to see it and pretends that the world is taking us as an example. Its so hilarious.

Skybird

11-04-22, 04:58 PM

Don’t you all have something akin to TurboTax? Makes my life easy, I can download all my accounts info to it. It pretty much dots the i’s and crosses the t’s for me. Unless I have to cut a check for money owed there’s no paperwork involved everything is done electronically.
There is such software, yes. But you underestimate the German genius to overregulate even the simpliest things. BTW, Albania, so i read, has better internet and digitalisation standard than Germany.

Man, we took 14 years to plan an airport toos mall, build it and delay opening again and again, and now debate whetehr to completely tear it down and build it new froms cratch. That is the Germany we tlak off. Forget the cliche about the greta ppanners, engineers and organiser! Germany may have been like thzat. It is no more. A growing number of students cannot correctly read and write when leaving schools. Asian brands beat German car makers every years whn tio comes to lonevity of tehcnical components and rate of tehcncial errors. If I were to buy a car - German brands is what I would avoid! ;) Overpriced, not offering enough for the money. POroductoj beocmes too expensive, energy becomes too expensive, infrastructure rots, energy stablity delcining, education standard of the workers pool declines. The rate at which industry is abandoning Germany has increased by three in this year, and by a factor of 8 over the past 10 years, in totals. They go to - China. At the same time you pay nowhere else as many taxes and social duties and pay nowhere else as much for electricity, than in Germany, already before this year.

mapuc

11-04-22, 05:18 PM

^ Some years back I had a little chat with a couple who had come to our island to get married. I asked if it was because our island is beautiful.

He said in German Nein...due to bureaucracy it's a hell to get married in Germany.
Ah Ich verstehe Warum-Oh I understand why so many of you German comes to our island either is it as turist or to get married.

Markus

Skybird

11-06-22, 10:56 AM

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:
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Biden's Rain of Money

As if the economic policy environment were not rough enough, the subsidy offensive in the United States is causing further headaches for the EU. It is also likely to have an impact on the dynamics in Europe.

The Tesla factory in Grünheide was considered a success project by German politicians. After just over two years of construction, the "Gigafactory" was ceremoniously opened in March. It was one thing that the American electric car manufacturer chose this town of 9,000 inhabitants in Brandenburg, of all places, as the location for its first factory in Europe. That the construction project was not ground down in the mills of German bureaucracy was the even greater achievement. Relocating lizards, clearing the forest, building the shell, final acceptance: it went like clockwork.

Until September 14. That's when news arrived from America that people in Berlin and Potsdam didn't like to read at all. The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla was putting its second construction project in Grünheide, a large battery factory, on hold. Instead of Germany, Tesla boss Elon Musk now wants to invest more in America. The reason: the tax advantages offered by U.S. President Joe Biden. Even though Tesla has reportedly emphasized to its partners in Germany that only the time priorities have changed, but that the battery factory is coming, people in Germany are "not amused".

Russia's war in Ukraine, China's threats against Taiwan, the energy crisis, inflation - as if the economic environment hadn't become rough enough in recent months, the U.S. government's package of laws called the Inflation Reduction Act has added another layer to the mix.

Biden wants to make the U.S. less dependent on imports - possibly at the expense of close partners like Germany. The president's ambitions have rarely been more succinct than in his tweet on Aug. 14 of this year: "Imagine a world where people open the hood of their car and see the Made-in-America seal stamped into the battery." That's exactly what the Inflation Reduction Act delivers, Biden exulted after the bill passed Congress.

The electric car promotion crystallizes the Biden administration's three strategic goals: it wants to reindustrialize America, it wants to oppose China's political and technological hegemony efforts, and it wants to transform the economy in a climate-friendly way. The legislative package, which calls for some $430 billion in spending over ten years - roughly a double whammy [reference to a phrase Scholz used to describe his 200 billion energy aid package, Skybird] - has it all.

"No Congress has passed such an act of violence against the multilateral trading system as the 117th Congress did with the Inflation Reduction Act," says Charles Benoit, a trade expert with the nonpartisan Coalition for a Prosperous America. He means that in a positive way. Benoit welcomes the push because his organization advocates trade barriers as a necessary remedy for bleeding American industry.

Seventy-five hundred dollars in tax credits is promised by the government to any electric car buyer who meets the following clauses: Vehicles must be assembled in America. From 2026, 80 percent of the rare minerals for the traction batteries must be mined in America or in countries with which the US has a free trade agreement. So far, the EU is not one of them. Shipments from "suspect foreign entities" are generally prohibited - that targets China, but is sufficiently vague to exclude others. After a transition period, the batteries will then have to come entirely from America.

German industry is already investing heavily in the US. BMW has just announced plans to expand its Spartanburg plant for $1.7 billion in the coming years. The Munich-based automaker plans to produce six new electric car models there. Specialty chemicals maker Evonik opened a research center in Pennsylvania in early September.

And Peter Carlsson, the head of Swedish start-up Northvolt, announced last week in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that he was reconsidering his planned billion-dollar factory to produce battery cells for electric cars in Schleswig-Holstein, not only because of horrendous energy costs, but also because of America's subsidy pots. Subsidies in the U.S., he said, lower production costs there by 30 to 40 percent. "We are now at a point where we may give priority to expansion in the U.S. over Europe for the time being," Carlsson said.

In Europe, all of this is met with astonishment. On the one hand, it is a "good sign" that the Americans now want to combat climate change with a "strong package," said German Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) recently. But this package should not distort the competitive conditions, the so-called level playing field, between Europe and the United States. You can see, Habeck said, how companies are flirting with relocating because of the high subsidies, so Biden's Inflation Act needs a "strong response."

The German government, so often at odds, seems reasonably united on this point. Against the backdrop of U.S. location policy, European competitiveness must be strengthened all the more, Christian Lindner (FDP) warned. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) also expressed his willingness not to stand idly by and watch the American orgy of subsidies. He is receiving support from France, after things had not infrequently snagged between Berlin and Paris in recent months.

"We have to wake up," Macron said at the start of the Paris Motor Show, where the strong presence of Chinese manufacturers showed the importance and self-confidence they have acquired. However, the French president attested not only to China's "very offensive strategy of state aid" to support domestic manufacturers, but also to Washington. Macron also openly considered limiting domestic purchase premiums for electric cars to vehicles "made in Europe.

It is true that both Macron's man for finance and the economy, Bruno Le Maire, and the German economy minister explicitly emphasize that they want to avoid a trade war. But just by dropping this word over and over again now, they show how serious they consider the American action to be. The issue is likely to occupy the EU finance ministers at their meeting next week.

So far, the EU has not taken a unified stance in response to the American Inflation Reduction Act. This is also true within the EU Commission: While the responsible Trade Commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, is backing de-escalation and objective talks with Washington, because the EU is dependent on America as its most important trading partner and needs it on its side in conflicts such as those with China and Russia, the Internal Market Commissioner, Thierry Breton, who is not strictly speaking responsible, is advocating a tougher approach, as is the case in Paris and Berlin.

He has already initiated work on an industrial policy "Made-in-Europe strategy," Breton told the French business newspaper Les Échos on Friday. He said the EU remains open to companies from other economic areas - "but on our terms."

The EU and U.S. have set up a working group on conflict resolution. It met for the first time on Friday. Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis said the appropriate forum for conflict resolution is the Trade and Technology Council (TTC), which meets every six months. The commission said the EU would certainly not take action against Washington before the next meeting in early December. According to the trade commissioner, the ideal solution to the conflict would be for the EU to be granted the same exemptions from the law as Canada and Mexico.

In the Commission, however, that is not considered very realistic. At present, Dombrovskis does not want to go to the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the U.S. law. However, given the "big picture," that cannot be ruled out in the medium term either, according to the commission. Breton said he strongly supports "addressing the problem within the WTO framework." Bernd Lange, an SPD member of parliament, said that if nothing happened by Dec. 5, "it would be perfectly normal for the EU to go to the WTO."

One should not draw the conclusion from Biden's policy that the Americans are on a confrontational course with the EU, said Christoph Schemionek, head of the German Chamber of Commerce Abroad in Washington. The U.S. government, he says, is following its security policy goals and running an inward-looking country anyway. And indeed, the very establishment of the working group suggests that the Americans are trying to do damage control. EU Trade Representative Katherine Tai recently recalled this and the negotiated truce on aircraft tariffs and the agreement on the steel and aluminum sector.

But Tai also pointed to EU projects that the Americans don't like, such as the climate tariff, which is intended to make imports of products with large carbon footprints more expensive. And there is no shortage of other points of contention. Washington is watching warily to see how much Chinese influence there is in the German economy, especially in the auto industry. Daimler's two largest shareholders are Chinese investors. The fact that Scholz, against all warnings, allowed the Chinese shipping company Cosco to acquire a stake in the port of Hamburg also did not go down well in America.

The Europeans, in turn, are concerned about America's export ban on high-tech chips and chip technology. This affects the Dutch specialist ASML, which is the technology leader for machines to manufacture these chips. ASML already does not supply the latest generation of machines to China. Now, however, the Americans want to extend the export restrictions. ASML cooperates closely with two German companies, Trumpf and Zeiss. Berlin fears that secondary sanctions could also affect them. In addition, there is displeasure about the "moon prices" that Berlin complains America's exporters are currently charging for liquefied natural gas. The tenor is that this is no way to deal with friends, especially not in an energy crisis in which electricity and gas have been costing many times more than the usual prices in the USA for months. In relative terms, the Ukraine war is hitting the Americans much less hard than it is Europe.

In the view of Economics Minister Habeck, Europe has only one choice in view of the bloc formation in the world. Namely, that of also pursuing a stronger industrial policy. That means faster approval procedures and, above all, more money. He knows that the French are on his side. Various cross-border support programs, known as IPCEI, already exist. According to an overview from the German Ministry of Economics, EU member states have provided a total of 5 billion euros in subsidies for battery cell production in Europe. The private investment triggered by this is said to be many times that amount.

In the subsidization of chip factories, the sums involved are much larger still. According to F.A.Z. information, the German government alone has earmarked around 17 billion euros for semiconductor projects in its budget for the coming years. One of the biggest beneficiaries, however, is likely to be an American company: Intel wants to build a large chip factory in Magdeburg and can count on lavish government funding. There was recent talk of a total sum of up to 6.8 billion euros.
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This could lead to a trade war that both sides do not want by intention, but that emerges due to the inner dynamics of both side's different policies. America's Keynesian money policy will cause its desastrous consequences, no doubt, the boom bought by them is a boom on tic. But Europe has nothign ebtter to do then in the dfepths of the worst crisis since WWII making things even more difficult with self-induced "green" complications based on the ever worst climate prediction scenarios that even already have been falsified and shown to be wrong, becasue the Europeans, epseiclaly the germans, use climate arugments as an excuse to fight against capitalism and buregoiuse society in general. In the end, Ameica is on the stronger position, and enjoys far greater autarky in supplies with precious rare commodities as wellk as greater military power to guard itself or to push through its interests in other parts of the world, than Europe. Europe, currently loosing many of its traditional strong arguments in its favour like qualified workforces, good education and good infrastructure and energy security, has only one trump to impress the world with: moralistic posing and appealing tirades. The rest is helplessness and dependency.

mapuc

11-16-22, 07:52 AM

Could this crash send waves into our world of real money ?

Prices of digital currencies fell again as the crisis engulfing the market deepened over the weekend. Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, has plummeted about 65% so far this year. It was trading at about $16,500 on Monday, according to CoinDesk. Analysts believe that it could fall below $10,000.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/14/business/ftx-crypto-collapse-updates-hnk-intl/index.html

Edit
Was also wondering if this crypto crisis could spread to other crypto and I found this article

Both FTX and Binance are “international” exchanges, the cryptocurrency equivalent of an offshore casino. Each also operates an arms-length US-regulated outlet, which closely follows what little regulation there is from the US government, but the bulk of the money that flows through their books is in effect unconstrained by regulatory requirements.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/10/what-happened-to-ftx-and-could-crisis-spill-over-to-rest-of-crypto
End edit

Markus

Skybird

11-16-22, 08:19 AM

The interesting thing in Bitcoins is not its buying aspect, but the technology and its safety features. As a currency it was hoped to limit the influence and control of central banks and governments, but as we have learned, governments can - and did - simply prohibit and effectively interrupt the use of cryptocurrency, also the founding as well as handling of cryptocurrency demands at some point the interaction with traditional currency again, making it prone and vulnerable to negative things happenign to traditional currency, too. I never bought into the hype around Bitcoins, therefore, to me its just the same as paper money with all its disadvanatges - just without paper. That centrela banks now hype cahsklessness and their own crapoto currencies only serves the purprose to make people dpene3dent on the state and makign themvulnerbale to any state- plundeirng operaitons and makign them avialable to any fees raised by credit card companies that then you can no lone rin any way avoid. Its about control, and plundering savings, and keeping people depending - fighting crime and money laundering are just strawman arguments. A tool of establishing ever more totalitarian control. A tool to make people fully transparent to commerce and governments alike, predictable in their decisions and behviours, manipulable, and vulnerable in their existence.

I have a bank card that is regularly attached to my banking account, but I hold no more a separate credit card like Visa or Mastercard, nothing like that. In shops I never pay live in plastic or via apps, and I will not do as long as its still possible to boycott it.

For the most, when leaving the house I almost never carry any plastic card (ID, license, health, bank), nor a smartphone. Any pickpocket succeeding in getting my wallet will enjoy no satisfaciton from it except a little small money needed for paying in the supermarket, not more: no big money, no plastic cards, nothing. I also dont easily create motion profiles for Google and mobile carriers.

There were times when it was normal for us to not have all these stupid things that only lead us ever deeper into tyranny and serfdom. And we got along well without them. The belief that we can no longer do without them is an illusion opportunistically implanted in us by those who want to exercise power over us. These gadgets, which we use "voluntarily", make the establishment of a police state unnecessary, while even exceeding the functionality of a police state.

How stupid are we to accept this...???

Otto Harkaman

11-20-22, 06:16 PM

Wait for it! Yes this could be the biggest Ponzi scheme (so far) in history.

https://a57.foxnews.com/hp.foxnews.com/images/2022/11/320/180/4660b34932c0afe9b0921ef7ed9762ea.png

what could possibly go wrong :hmmm:

Rockstar

11-21-22, 11:59 AM

Skybird

11-24-22, 11:31 AM

As soon as things start to improve, the politicians make sure that things get worse again. Deutsche Welle (German edition)writes:

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Container prices plummet in maritime trade

Freight rates had reached record highs during the crisis years - this trend has been broken. At the same time, congestion at major ports is easing. But this is no reason for boundless jubilation.

The global economy is still suffering from the consequences of the Corona pandemic and the war in Ukraine. As much as this has thrown world trade out of sync, blown up many supply chains and challenged economic interaction around the globe, there are increasing signs that the situation is partially easing again.

Ninety percent of global trade passes through the oceans. And anyone who lives on the coast or in a city with a large port has seen it for themselves: The traffic jams of container ships lying in the roads, waiting to be cleared in the ports. These traffic jams are now noticeably easing.

This has also been observed by the German Shipowners' Association (VDR). Its CEO Martin Kröger sees several reasons for this, such as the end of port workers' strikes in Germany. The situation has eased overall and even normalized: "We therefore see the traffic jams off the European coast as having been permanently overcome," he told DW.

Shipping space, i.e. the available freight capacity, is also no longer as scarce as it was a year ago. This, he said, is reflected in freight rates, i.e. the costs incurred for transporting containers - they are once again falling significantly. Martin Kröger: "Shipping is now operating again at conditions at the level before the pandemic."

Handelsblatt has calculated that freight rates are in some cases "hardly more expensive" than before the pandemic. For example, transporting a 20-foot container from China to northern Europe would cost an average of $1479; at the beginning of this year, the price was still around $10,000. It goes on to say that shipments from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast would be even cheaper than in 2019.

Vincent Stamer of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Ifw) explains why. "During the pandemic, Europeans and North Americans in particular had increased demand for goods such as consumer electronics, furniture and sports equipment. Companies had simultaneously tried to solve supply bottlenecks by filling their warehouses," Stamer told DW. The decisive factor for the current development of freight rates is now "the decreased demand for physical goods."

The current unfavorable economic conditions in Europe and the U.S. are causing demand to fall. "Inflation, fears of recession and a rotation to services are depressing demand for goods," Stamer said. Less demand, he said, then leads to a resurgence in the supply of shipping space, which translates into falling freight rates.

Shouldn't that also be felt in consumer markets? Yes, says Ifw economist Stamer; "Falling freight rates are positive news. Companies have to spend around one in ten euros on logistics and transport. Therefore, the recovery in freight rates should reduce costs for companies and ultimately have an impact on consumer prices."

No, say the shipowners, on the other hand. For Germany, they say, the development is indeed positive for the time being. But consumers would hardly notice the falling transport costs. According to the VDR, these costs only account for "a very small proportion of the end consumer price of the goods transported.

Martin Kröger says that freight costs are not expected to fall any further. New environmental regulations cost "a lot of money." A possible expansion of European emissions trading would put a strain on shipping companies: "A strict EU CO2 reduction regime would successively make the use of emission-free fuels mandatory, which are much more expensive to purchase and use than conventional fossil fuels."

As early as next year, the VDR said, new requirements from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to reduce emissions would come into force. Observers therefore "anticipate increased tonnage demand, as many shipping companies will reduce the speed of ships to cut emissions."

In the medium term, new ships will enter service, many of which have already been ordered. The main reason for the investments is not to have more tonnage available, but to be able to meet stricter environmental regulations. "All of this," says Kröger, "costs a lot of money." And that will also affect the level of freight rates, he adds.

Since the 1920s, economists have been talking about so-called hog cycles. This term describes recurring fluctuations in the relationship between supply and demand. The example of pig farming was used to show how one phenomenon cyclically lags behind the other. "Shipowners are now experiencing the start of a new hog cycle," Vincent Stamer is certain. The question, he says, is how the supply of shipping tonnage on the one hand and the demand for shipping space on the other will develop. At the moment, it seems to amount to an oversupply of cargo space.

In any case, German shipowners believe they are on the right track when they adapt their ships to new environmental standards. Vincent Stamer sees this as an economic threat to the industry: the new cargo ships will "increase the supply of transport options and put further pressure on freight rates. The industry should not rely on the profits of the past years continuing to bubble up in the future."

Nor does Martin Kröger of VDR expect this: "The high profit margins of the past year and a half are no longer to be expected. Nevertheless, we continue to expect profitable business." And that is also necessary in order to be able to afford "investments in climate-friendly technologies to meet the CO2 reduction targets.
--------------------

mapuc

11-25-22, 12:28 PM

Skybird

11-25-22, 04:25 PM

I had to make a search to learn why a higher interest rate is the best tool against high inflation.

Throughout my life I have heard this so many times-Increase interest rates to fight a high inflation...but until now I have never given it a thought.

"When the interest rate is high, the supply for money is less, and hence inflation decreases, which means supply is decreased. In contrast, when the interest rate is decreased or low, the supply of money will be more, and as a result, inflation increases, which means that demand is increased."

But...we have had years with negative interest and the inflation was low-so why now what have triggered the increase of the inflation?

Markus

There are several definitions for "inflation", and some of them were designed with rightout criminal intention, I say: to deceive the people while they are being plundered. People often have confused understandings of what the term really means, the most common definition nowadays is that we have inflation when the prices go up. This associates a certain causal link that works only one way, not the other or both ways, and that is what makes this definition wrong.

You hit a very, very important question there, and so I took some time to make the following photos from two books I have, since I know you understand German. This way it was the easiest way to get this text over, the OCR thing (ands using DeepL for translation) I just did not get to work.

The first is from the book "Österreichische Schule für Anleger. Austrian Investing zwischen Inflation und Deflation" von Rahim Taghizadegan, Ronald Stöferle und Mark Vale, Finanzbuch Verlag 2014.

Click on them.

https://bilderupload.org/image/thumbnail/resized-d4df11324-20221125-220437.jpg (https://bilderupload.org/bild/d4df11324-20221125-220437)

https://bilderupload.org/image/thumbnail/resized-b65f11350-20221125-220536-1.jpg (https://bilderupload.org/bild/b65f11350-20221125-220536-1)

https://bilderupload.org/image/thumbnail/resized-66bf11371-20221125-220601.jpg (https://bilderupload.org/bild/66bf11371-20221125-220601)

https://bilderupload.org/image/thumbnail/resized-20ae11470-20221125-220635-1.jpg (https://bilderupload.org/bild/20ae11470-20221125-220635-1)

Skybird

11-25-22, 04:27 PM

And this is from the same author Rahim Taghizadegan: "Wirtschaft wirklich verstehen. Einführung in die Österreichische Schule der Ökonomie." Finanzbuch Verlag 2011.

click on them

https://bilderupload.org/image/thumbnail/resized-300e12502-20221125-220743.jpg (https://bilderupload.org/bild/300e12502-20221125-220743)

https://bilderupload.org/image/thumbnail/resized-e4a911706-20221125-220804.jpg (https://bilderupload.org/bild/e4a911706-20221125-220804)

https://bilderupload.org/image/thumbnail/resized-c08211955-20221125-220812.jpg (https://bilderupload.org/bild/c08211955-20221125-220812)

https://bilderupload.org/image/thumbnail/resized-1d8c11975-20221125-220823.jpg (https://bilderupload.org/bild/1d8c11975-20221125-220823)

https://bilderupload.org/image/thumbnail/resized-866312000-20221125-220833.jpg (https://bilderupload.org/bild/866312000-20221125-220833)

----------

You may now see why I say central banks are manifestations of organised crime. I mean it! Literally, sober, absolutley . If you internalise these two texts, you can answer your question yourself.

It will not make you any friends, however. With understanding like this, you will be turned into a pariah, and you will be branded as a net defiler and a naysayer.

BTW, both books are absolutely excellent: precise, yet easy to read. Just pay attention to that they were released 2011 and 2014. They predicted what followed in the years since then, but could not describe the later events (since 2014) as facts.

mapuc

11-25-22, 04:50 PM

Skybird

11-25-22, 04:51 PM

Thank you for posting these pages-However they are unreadable either they are upside down and each of them are so small that it's impossible to read.

I search for these book at google books no success- I discovered that they are available at my favorite online book store-Both book that is.

Markus
Click on them, they zoom up, correctly formatted.

------------------

One book also is available in English now:

https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B07JQ36T93/ref=sr_1_2?__mk_de_DE=%C3%85M%C3%85%C5%BD%C3%95%C3 %91&crid=2697DU7OYD6DY&keywords=rahim+taghizadegan&qid=1669412989&sprefix=rahim+taghizadegan%2Caps%2C171&sr=8-2

Skybird

11-26-22, 12:10 PM

Focus:
--------------
USA takes Germany to task - and Habeck our industry

The Americans are shaking up the international market for new technologies with billions in subsidies. The German economy is also suffering as a result. Minister Robert Habeck announces that politics will now interfere more in the free market.

The German economy is caught in a dangerous pincer movement. The crazy thing is that both arms of the pincers are not being moved by Russians or Chinese, but by Americans who are apparently determined to organize their future prosperity at the expense of Chinese and Europeans.

Trump left, his motto remained: America First

Because one does not want to celebrate this exaltation of one's own nation - especially under a Democratic president - so clearly, American security interests on the one hand and the fight against inflation on the other are cited as reasons for going it alone.

The pincers consist of two very different legs:

1. the American Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is ostensibly aimed at lowering inflation in the United States. In reality, however, it is a gigantic subsidy program in favor of new technologies.

The legislative package provides for spending of $369 billion over the next ten years on energy security and climate change programs, putting European industry under pressure. Leave or stay? According to France's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, in some cases the subsidies offered by the U.S. government are four to ten times the maximum government support allowed by the EU Commission.

We are learning: It says inflation control on it, but there is industrial policy inside. The USA wants to strengthen its industrial base again.

On the one hand, the sanctions imposed by the U.S. government on China's semiconductor industry are putting pressure on the Middle Kingdom. Since the beginning of October, Washington has been restricting the export of production technologies that are needed to build up China's own chip production. US manufacturers Nvidia and AMD must now obtain government approval for exports of selected semiconductors.

Research and development and maintenance of existing Chinese semiconductor production are also being hampered. In a big way, this is about slowing down China's technological catch-up in self-driving cars, 5G Internet to cloud services and artificial intelligence.

Americans put Europe's industry under pressure

Not entirely coincidentally, German industry is also suffering from the restrictions. Chinese manufacturers account for one-fifth of the global semiconductor industry, and their customers and suppliers from Europe are being urged to follow U.S. policy. Holland-based ASML, for example, has been pressured "by U.S. officials," according to Bloomberg, to stop selling selected chip-making machinery to China. Alan Estevez, the undersecretary of state for industry and security, among others, will travel to the Netherlands later this month to discuss export controls with the government there, according to Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is positioning itself as a friendly alternative: the export freeze came two months after U.S. President Joe Biden signed the so-called CHIPS Act. 280 billion US dollars will be invested from the treasury to boost semiconductor production on American soil. European companies are also invited to invest.

And how are business and politics in Germany reacting to this?

Scholz announces changes in China policy

Contradictory.

In the case of U.S. billions in subsidies under the IRA, Economics Minister Robert Habeck has woken up with a time lag.

"Protectionism paralyzes innovation. It's not so much about losing our industrial heart, but about the risk that the next wave of technological innovation will not take place in Europe. Because the IRA takes care of the cool new stuff."

In the U.S. push against China, however, German industry stands alone. Habeck and Scholz are pursuing a so-called de-risking strategy. For the chancellor, business as usual is no longer an option vis-à-vis China. He clarifies, "If China changes, our dealings with China must also change. "

The head of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), Siegfried Russwurm, vigorously rejects considerations of turning away from the Chinese market. "I see no reason why we should sell less to China. "
The head of the industry association BDI, Siegfried Russwurm, vigorously rejects considerations for turning away from the Chinese market.
dpa The head of the industry association BDI, Siegfried Russwurm, vigorously rejects the considerations for a turn away from the Chinese market.

VW and BASF are splurging on investments in China

His member companies are putting pressure on him to dare to dance with the Americans and, if necessary, with his own hitherto intransigent government:

- Volkswagen subsidiary Traton, for example, is expanding its business in China regardless of U.S. policy on China. A truck plant is currently being built in Rugao near Shanghai, which will start production as early as 2025. The SPD and IG Metall sides on the supervisory board have agreed.

- BASF CEO Martin Brudermüller also defends his €10 billion investment in Zhanjiang. The plant is to produce 60,000 metric tons of engineering plastics annually for customers in China. He advises realism: "I think it's urgent that we get away from China-bashing and take a somewhat self-critical look at ourselves."

- Overall, German companies invested more than ten billion euros in China in the first half of 2022, according to the German Institute for Economic Research - a record high.

- After the U.S., China is the second-largest export market for the German economy. German industry mainly sells cars and industrial equipment there. German mechanical and plant engineering from Baden-Württemberg is particularly affected.
Habeck announces greater political interference in free market

With the U.S. - its economic interests and its representation in the White House - the German economy has a powerful, because assertive opponent before its chest this time. The concept of "managed trade," which has been propagated by left-wing U.S. Democrats for years, has replaced the old free trade doctrine in Washington.

German business cannot count unconditionally on the Green Minister of Economics in its fight for open markets. As Habeck explained yesterday in Paris, the politicization of trade relations is exactly in line with his ideas: "The phase in which many thought that markets should rule and politics should stay out of it is definitely over. That idea was already wrong before."
----------------------------

Thats why I said before that Biden is better - for America and Amerians - than many want to give him credit for. Like Trump, in economics he is quite adamant on "America first". Europe dreamt of a good and well-meaning "uncle" - what it got instead was an economic powerplayer not any less determined to push american goals even at European costs than his predecessor pushed his personal interests. For many European governments and the EU, this came quite unexpected - and unwelcomed.

Not that it would stop the Germans from maximising further the challenges they load on their shoulders needlessly all by themselves, of course. As long as Germany still exist as a national entity, many in Berlin will not be satisfied, especially in the Green and left parties.

Mind you, German economy minister Habeck said one or two years before he became minister, that he has no use for any kind of national pride, and that he finds "patriotism pretty much to vomit" (original quote). That such a person knows no hesitation even when his political actions lead to serious damage to the country's livelihood is thus no longer a miracle, but downright logical. When Habeck took the oath of office, he basically committed perjury, as did a number of other ministers besides him. In the meantime, a whole series of his lies have been documented, and he has also been convicted of lying when he claimed that he had the continued operation of the remaining three nuclear power plants examined impartially and openly in his ministry. There are about 160 documents proving that he did exactly the opposite and gave the instruction on day one that any analysis work had to come to the conclusion that the three power plants were not needed. The wanted results of the ministry's "assessment" were already commanded from beginning on.

Rockstar

12-07-22, 08:53 AM

Wall Street Chorus Grows Louder Warning That 2023 Will Be Ugly

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wall-street-chorus-grows-louder-warning-that-2023-will-be-ugly-1.1855686

(Bloomberg) -- In the Federal Reserve’s quiet period before its officials meet to decide their final actions this year, Wall Street watchers are filling the void, loudly warning that next year’s outlook for the US economy and stocks is grim.

From Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Solomon caution that the economy faces “bumpy times ahead,” to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon grimmer view that this would be a “mild to hard recession,” and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Lisa Shalett, who told Bloomberg Television that corporations are facing a “rude awakening” on earnings, the messages have become increasingly dire.
“We do not think the economic conditions for a sustained upturn are yet in place,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. “Growth is slowing and central banks are still raising rates.”

Investors appear to be heeding the warnings. Following a two-month rally, the S&P 500 Index has fallen in all but one of the last eight sessions and dropped 1.4% on Tuesday. Equity strategists, historically the market’s biggest cheerleaders, are now predicting a down year in 2023. And the red flags are being waved in the wake of wage and services data that suggested inflationary forces still grip the economy.
The charts aren’t helping, either. Whenever the benchmark S&P 500 is lower by 15% or worse in a year through November, December is usually much weaker, according to BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky. From January to November, the benchmark index had seen a 19% drawdown, with the gauge giving up its ground to close back below its 200-day moving average Monday.

One of Wall Street’s biggest bears, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, backed away from a recent call that the markets recovery could last into December to say that “we are now sellers again” as he and his colleagues expect the S&P 500 to resume declines.
Layoffs are also adding to the gloom. On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley announced that it will reduce its global workforce by about 2,000 ahead of a potential US recession, while Bank of America Corp. said it was slowing hiring.

Tech companies have already been slashing their workforces by the thousands. From Twitter Inc. to Meta Platforms Inc. to Amazon.com Inc., corporations are trimming staff and slowing hiring as they grapple with higher interest rates and a pullback in consumer spending.

Read more: Burned Stock Pundits Ditch Two Decades of Unbroken Bullishness

Yet there are those, including Charles Schwab & Co.’s Liz Ann Sonders, who think the economy will improve in the latter half of next year. After all, there has been growing evidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is cooling, fueling market optimism.

“We have to take our medicine still, meaning a weaker economy and a weaker labor market. The question is, is it better to take our medicine sooner or later? And I think sooner,” the firm’s chief investment strategist said by phone. “The outlook is better for the latter part of 2023. The risk to that view would be if for whatever reason the economy continues to run really hot and the Fed has to really slam on the brakes.”

--With assistance from Vildana Hajric.
(Updates with Tuesday’s close in fourth paragraph)
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Skybird

01-12-23, 08:43 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTXyJosj-eM&t=0s

mapuc

01-15-23, 08:58 AM

Are we facing an economical Armageddon ?

Following the passage of a new House rules package on Monday and with Donald Trump urging House Republicans to “play tough” on raising the federal debt limit, Democrats are warning of a chaotic 118th Congress that could see the government cease to function normally.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/10/us-house-debt-ceiling-trump-congress-republicans

Markus

Catfish

01-15-23, 11:23 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTXyJosj-eM&t=0s
If you do not buy something you need now or in the next months you will not be able to buy anything due to the prices exploding.
You think a "Balkonkraftwerk" or a power generator will be cheaper or even affordable after the next 12 months?
Just because all stop buying? How can they? :03:

The only ones profiting from such videos and doom and gloom news are investors and reinvestors.

Skybird

01-15-23, 12:50 PM

You know that there is depth beyiodn the surface, so i recommnend you jump into it and go deeper. Its abotu the consequences of a misleading understanding of what inflation ctually is. Governments lie to us all the time abitzu it. Banks lie about. In bflation is NOT rising prices as a cause for the probeoms following in its wake, but ionflation is a wanted rise of currency supplky decided ion yb govenrments - the price later rise as a conseqeunces of that onyl, they are not the cause, they are a follow on symptom.

Thats why I indicated so often that we all sit much deeper in the poop than most people realise. And there is no easy way out. All those bailout packages and government aid packages only delay the meltdown - and the cost of having that meltdown later becoming even more catastrophic and hurtful. Or our society being "freed" of even more liberties and freedoms when the government decides the meltdown is accptable to be countered by ever growing planned economy and thus totalitarian state control of ecnomy, and in the end: civil society. That way, the country and eocnoym turn into pressur ecookers inside which the pressure nevertheless soone ror later get too high, and then it goes all off. That when states explode and economies collapse, and the real nasty and physically violent things begin to happen: wars.

We are stuck much, much deeper in the poop than anbody wants to realise.

I see no way out, in the long run. None. Only a finite number of further attempts to delay - but no escapes.

The whole governmental propaganda and media apparatus day in day out focusses on hammering home a totally wrong understanding of what inflation is. This is so that people do not realise to what monstrous degrees governments and parties have become guilty or are derailing the fundaments of society and economy for their bids to power and parties' own self-interests.

"Die politischen Parteien haben sich den Staat zur Beute gemacht." - Richard von Weizsäcker. I wonder if he even was fully aware of how far reachingly true his statement in reality is. Its truth reaches far beyond the context of that speech that he spoke this sentence in.

Its a self-created maelstrom, and it crushes us, drowns us. Nobody is to be blamed than ourselves.

I would, if I wouldn't already have done so, go from paper stuff into real material values. Preferrably those the state cannot easily plunder. The state can always plunder everything but we should not make it too easy and invitngly. Hide, and keep a low profile. Either your reserves will be sufficient to hold out, or they aren't. You find out soon enough. "Investing" currently is just a lottery, and more fraudsters and foul-tongued liars are on the street than usually. Watch out. Beware. Be on your guard. Gambling, and investing, are not the same.

Catfish

01-15-23, 04:16 PM

I get it with fiat money, but since we cannot do anything about it.. money is being made out of nothing regardless what you or i think.
But thinking in short terms your money is more worth now than it will be in a year.

Skybird

01-16-23, 08:05 AM

The greatets raid in human history. The greatest terorrist attack on the freedom of Western liberal social orders. Ultimately these terrorists want to turn the West into a copy of the Chinese dictatorship model.

And quite some of you guys even vote for these criminals...!? Note that they are sitting in practically every party you can vote for, left and right, conservative an progressive.

Already Marx knew it. If you want to destroy the liberal basic order of burgeoise society, destroy its money system.

Remember the comical society depicted in that comedy with Stallone, Demolition Man? The sterile health guru as president who by the best-sounding excuses had established a de facto dictorship? - Stop laughing. This nonsense is about to come true.And we let it happen, not resisting at all.

When I feed my bank account by paying in enough money in cash so that the bills get paid for the next two or three years, I get treated like a criminal. I get questioned, must wage a paper war, must file evidence for my legal possession of that money, and a criminal investigation gets started because the bank is obligated to report me to a federal office checking such payments. The worst and really worrying about this, is this:the burden of proof has been reversed, the principle of "when in doubt, give the accused the benefit of the doubt" no longer applies. I am guilty from the beginning as long as I have not proven my innocence according to arbitrary and constantly changing rules that my enemy - the state - has arbitrarily set and changes at will to force my submission to its claim to power and ownership of my person and labor.

In ancient China there was a very perfidious and torturous method of execution, they had many of them and modern China still lives on this today (I once read a whole book about Chinese execution methods, after that I was just sick to my stomach for days). The deliquent was tied to the floor so that he was incapable of any movement and fidgeting, then a fragrant oil-soaked gauzy silk cloth was placed on his face. After a while, another pleasantly scented oil-soaked silk cloth was placed on top of it, and about a minute later, another oil-soaked gossamer silk cloth was placed on top of it. The intention was to slowly suffocate the victim to death and at the same time save face by presenting the victim's complete inability to move or wriggle as proof that everything was quite civilized and peaceful. Was it not gossamer-thin precious silk that was used? Wasn't it expensive, pleasant-smelling perfumed oil that was used to smother the pores of the fabric? Didn't they do everything to make the victim comfortable and to treat him with dignity?

The incarnation of absolute wickedness.
This is exactly what our politicians and central bankers and social engineers and do-gooders are doing to all of us today. Only that we are not tied to the ground.

We imbeciles remain voluntarily still.

Because we are well-behaved, civilized. Our freedom is robbed from us, with violence and insidiousness. The motive is the lowest imaginable: the enforcement of dictatorship and submission. We keep silent and parry, hoping that things will not get worse all by themselves.

They will get worse. And we deserve it because we are lazy and comfortable and cowardly.

Sometime in the second half of this century, it will be hard to distinguish the dictatorship in Europe and probably America from the dictatorship in China. Rejoice and be glad - that is because we did not want to fight back effectively and allowed it . We console ourselves with the fact that it happened for a good cause.

Shame on all of us.

FOCUS:
-----------------------

This is the real reason why cash should be abolished

For years, there has been a fight against cash. Of course, this is always done with the argument that it is used to pursue higher and more honorable goals, such as money laundering, crime and tax evasion. The first companies, such as the technology retailer Gravis, are already no longer accepting cash.

Bit by bit, this salami tactic is being used to make cash useless and at the same time take it away from us - often unnoticed by the general public. Or did you know that our federal government has been investing millions of taxpayers' money in the abolition of cash for years? Yes, I was also gobsmacked when I researched this.

But first things first: in 2019, the 500-euro bill was shelved in order to stop money laundering and tax evasion. The hoped-for success failed to materialize, and to this day no empirical evidence of containment has been demonstrated. Even the Bundesbank had to admit that this action was a set of x's - only 20 percent of the bills in circulation have been returned since then.

In parallel, within only two years, the amount for anonymous table transactions (acquisition of precious metals, gems, etc. without registration) was reduced from 15,000 euros to 2000 euros. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time before this window is closed completely.

The next attack took place during the Corona crisis: In the beginning, cash was considered dangerous for a while because it was defamed as a virus carrier, which of course was absolute humbug. Nevertheless, to this day we see stickers advertising secure contactless payment.

EU-wide cash cap coming

But that's not all: In December, Brussels agreed on an EU-wide cash ceiling of 10,000 euros. If German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser had had her way, a cash ceiling of well under 1,000 euros would have been implemented. Here again, the Deutsche Bundesbank drives a clear contradiction into the path of the EU and the German government:

"So far, there is no scientifically sound evidence that cash caps achieve the goal of combating money laundering." This is also shown by experience in countries where payments with bills and coins are already limited to certain amounts, he said. "I therefore consider a cash payment cap to be misguided," said Johannes Beermann, member of the Deutsche Bundesbank's Executive Board.

At the same time, the German government has taken all citizens into custody under the guise of the Sanctions Enforcement Act (which is intended to make life difficult for Russian oligarchs and, as always, of course, to combat money laundering). Because the new section 16a in the Money Laundering Act (GWG) prohibits paying for real estate, land, houses and apartments in cash, gold or cryptocurrencies.

You see: Cash is under attack on many fronts. And if cash were to be abolished, it would have a number of disadvantages for us citizens.

Digital money = digital dictatorship

Only about two percent of the money supply exists in the form of bills and coins. Or to put it another way: only one in fifty euros. If only five or ten percent of Europeans were to withdraw their money from the bank, the house of cards would collapse and most would be left without money. Cashless payment is becoming increasingly popular in times of credit cards, Apple Pay, Paypal and the like. More than 90 percent of all payments are made by debit and credit card or bank transfer/direct debit. De facto, we already have a digital euro. So why is the ECB pushing so hard to introduce a digital euro in the form of a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) for the Eurosystem?

Short answer: it's about control.

All transfers and transactions, whether private or commercial, are collected by banks and executed once a day in the banking system between institutions. What customers spend their money on is currently only seen by the banks. Passing on the transactions to the ECB or other parties is not possible and prohibited for several reasons. A CBDC would solve this problem permanently. Then every citizen in the EU would have a digital account (wallet) directly with the ECB - and the ECB would thus have a complete overview in real time.

Of course, the central banks will charmingly pull out all the stops to make this brave new world palatable to us: Payments will then be secure, convenient, hygienic, contactless, more efficient, cheaper and faster.

But the price would be high, because every customer and every transaction would then be completely transparent and traceable. A digital currency can provide countless data on the payment flows and user behavior of citizens. One could conveniently link the wallets with, for example, the vaccination certificate as well as other data. And then we have the truly transparent customer.

The threat of Orwellian surveillance

To take this provocatively further: In order to save the climate and educate us to be better people, we could then also install a Co2 credit account. Whoever then uses up his Co2 credit because he travels too much or drives a car, eats meat instead of bugs or highly processed meat substitutes, must pay or even starve. These are the wet dreams of the secret services and the nightmare George Orwell warned us about.

Another risk: In addition to Orwellian surveillance, interest rates could easily be lowered into negative territory without citizens being able to withdraw money from the bank and escape the negative interest rate. A bank run would thus be impossible in the future.

Penalty interest or a wealth levy could be used quickly and efficiently, and collected from every account without anyone being able to fight it. Likewise parking tickets, the broadcasting fee, etc. How convenient! Even an account freeze would be possible at any time by the centralist ECB. Just as it is now with the great role model China.

Digital dictatorship under a cloak

Speaking of China, the icing on the cake could be the installation of a social credit program. A centrally controlled digital money, coupled with the social credit system, is the perfect (and perfidious) solution for keeping one's own citizens in check, controlling them at all times and punishing them if they don't play by the rules. Whoever then steps out of line gets sanctions in the form of withdrawal limits or account blocking in addition to the deduction of social credit points. The digital dictatorship under the mantle of climate neutrality, solidarity and justice is complete.

But consumption could also be controlled. In China, people are thinking about fading money. The credit expires after a certain time in order to stimulate the economy. On the other hand, payments could be limited or even blocked on certain goods. Just the way a centralized institution would like it.

The ECB wants to introduce the digital euro by 2024/25. Globally, all central banks are working flat out on digital currencies because the advantages for them are obvious. The bottom line is that a digital euro is nothing more than the unbacked fiat money system, which is 100 percent digitalized. For us citizens, it only has disadvantages because we can then be easily monitored and expropriated. Negative interest rates can be installed without us being able to protect ourselves from this. Because in such a case, the escape route is blocked, namely withdrawing cash, taking it out of the banking circuit and thus legally removing it from the surveillance and access of the states.

So you can see why preserving cash is so important for anonymity, freedom and democracy.

Cash is freedom

But this freedom has been under fire from all sides for years. Not only are states and central banks attacking cash, but so are organizations like the Better Than Cash Alliance , a global association of governments, businesses and international organizations that want to accelerate the transition of cash to digital payments. Members include - unsurprisingly! - credit card giants Visa and Mastercard, Citibank, but also the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. What I find exciting is the finding of my research, already mentioned at the beginning: the Anti-Cash Alliance has received German taxpayer money from our federal government. From 2016 to 2018 it was 500,000 euros and since 2019 it has been 200,000 euros annually.

The trend is clear: The abolition of cash is taking place quietly and insidiously. At the beginning of the year, Lufthansa announced that it would only accept cashless payments at its service points. Almost at the same time, the technology chain Gravis, with its 40 stores, announced that it would no longer accept cash with immediate effect.

The fact is: Only cash guarantees ownership and title to one's assets. Money on the account does not belong to you, but to the bank. In addition I made several important videos. Cash is and remains printed freedom! It is and remains the only legal tender according to the statutes of the ECB: "Euro banknotes and coins are legal tender in the euro area. Cash is the only form of central bank money that we can all use directly."

Even in the event of a blackout, cash will be the only official means of payment that still works.

Despite my passionate plea for cash, however, I must also mention that our current monetary system is not sustainable. For unbacked paper money (fiat money) will, as it always has throughout history, continue to lose purchasing power and ultimately fail. Especially the dysfunctional currency experiment Euro . This is why an independent, decentralized, borderless, non-manipulable and deflationary system like Bitcoin is so brilliant and important. For me it is and remains the only alternative for a better monetary system.
----------------------

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51lwMScvReL.jpg

Skybird

02-02-23, 06:37 PM

Printing money - literally.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64507085

Jimbuna

02-03-23, 03:20 PM

Just been notified of a half a percent rise in my bank account savings rate :)

Skybird

02-08-23, 05:21 AM

FOCUS on sanctions:
-----------------------

Why the US sanctions are not hitting Putin or Xi - but us

Someone in Washington has pressed the "replay" button. We hear the grim echo of history. For the intellectual basis of today's sanctions policy - which imposes punitive tariffs on rivals and punishes them with trade bans - comes from Woodrow Wilson.

As early as 1910, the then US president recommended economic warfare as the ultimate: "A nation that is comprehensively boycotted has no choice but to surrender. Thanks to this economic, peaceful, silent, but nevertheless deadly medicine, the use of armed forces is no longer necessary."

The belief in the omnipotence of economic sanctions persists to this day. When US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was asked in 2019 what the US would do about a Turkey that allowed the Kurdish minority to be killed in Syria, he replied, "We can shut down the Turkish economy."

That's what Trump thought. That's what Biden thinks. So thinks Economics Minister Robert Habeck, who is in Washington today. But they are all united in error. The fact is:

Nations resist.

Sanctions fail.

The outcasts forge alliances among themselves.

Take Cuba, for example: to this day, the Caribbean state has not allowed itself to be impressed either by military infiltration or by punitive economic measures. On the contrary: Castro offered his island to the Soviets as a launching pad for nuclear missiles. The former German ambassador to Cuba, Bernd Wulffen, said only recently: "Harsh language or even economic sanctions lead to cementing the bunker mentality in Cuba."

Take Iran, for example: the Islamic Republic, which is hostile to the USA, has reorganised its supply chains and is now in the economic prime of its time. The gross national product has doubled in only three years and, according to an IMF projection, will increase by another twenty percent from 2023 to 2027. The construction of its own atomic bomb is also close to completion, according to all Western experts.

Take Russia, for example: within a very short time, Putin was able to circumvent the sanctions and acquire new import and export partners. The whole world is keen on Russian oil and gas. The world's largest democracy - India - is taking the place of the small German democracy as the buyer of the fossil product range. For 2024, the Russian Federation expects - according to the current forecast of the International Monetary Fund - an economic growth of 2.1 per cent, which is considerably higher than that of the Federal Republic of Germany with 1.4 per cent.

Example China: The US sanctions are the most important driver in the emergence of a Chinese domestic market. Its consumer base exceeds the American domestic market threefold. Under the pressure of Western sanctions, China has formed a powerful economic alliance with Russia, India, Iran and Turkey.

Why is this important?

Because America refuses to acknowledge this inconvenient truth - and is driving itself and its partners into a veritable sanctions frenzy. Agathe Demarais, director of the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, the analysis institute of the Economist, has precisely recorded the increase in sanctions:

US President George W. Bush issued 3484 sanctions against companies, individuals, nations and organisation in eight years
President Donald Trump launched around 3900 sanctions against the same group of people between 2017 and 2020. That was four sanctions per working day.
When Joe Biden took office, the pace increased enormously. Today, the US operates 70 different sanctions programmes out of the Treasury Department, affecting 9000 nations, individuals, states and organisations. In her book "Backfire", Agathe Demarais speaks of "sanction overkill".

Why is this dangerous for German and European companies in particular?

Because the USA has discovered that sanctions may not work on its opponents, but they are all the more effective in the camp of its own friends and economic partners. They are forced to end their hitherto successful economic relations - e.g. with Cuba, Iran, Russia and China - and are pushed to the side of the Americans.

A sanctions monopoly is created that pushes market forces aside. In the absence of alternatives, Germans, French and other NATO countries now buy from the USA, of necessity also expensive liquid gas.

With the threat that the sanction-breaker will be excluded from the US market, political friends are turned into willing trading partners. And if the friend is not willing, fiscal force is used, as Agathe Demarais has researched:

From 2009 to today, American companies have had to pay only 300 million dollars in fines, while other countries have paid a total of 4 billion.
A foreign company pays an average of 139 million US dollars for violating the sanctions regime, while a US company pays an average of only 2 million, 70 times less.

We summarise: Those who are supposed to be hit are not. But the political friends and partners suffer because their previous business is made more expensive, more complicated or impossible.

Perhaps this is the irony of the modern age: the US economic sanctions are working - just in a different way than Woodrow Wilson had intended.
------------------------

Rockstar

03-10-23, 02:59 PM

Another one bites the dust.

Silicon Valley Bank seized by FDIC, marking largest shutdown of a US bank since 2008

Its failure marks the largest shutdown of a US bank since 2008, when Washington Mutual fell during the financial crisis.

ByKEN SWEET AP logo
Friday, March 10, 2023 2:34PM

https://abc30.com/silicon-valley-bank-fdic-collapses-svc/12938130/

SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seized the assets of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, marking the largest bank failure since Washington Mutual during the height of the 2008 financial crisis.

The bank failed after depositors - mostly technology workers and venture capital-backed companies - began withdrawing their money creating a run on the bank.

Silicon Valley was heavily exposed to tech industry and there is little chance of contagion in the banking sector as there was in the months leading up to the Great Recession more than a decade ago. Major banks have sufficient capital to avoid a similar situation.

The FDIC ordered the closure of Silicon Valley Bank and immediately took position of all deposits at the bank Friday. The bank had $209 billion in assets and $175.4 billion in deposits as the time of failure, the FDIC said in a statement. It was unclear how much of deposits was above the $250,000 insurance limit at the moment.

The financial health of Silicon Valley Bank was increasingly in question this week after the bank announced plans to raise up to $1.75 billion in order to strengthen its capital position amid concerns about higher interest rates and the economy. Shares of SVB Financial Group, the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank, had plummeted nearly 70% before trading was halted before the opening bell on the Nasdaq.

CNBC reported that attempts to raise capital failed and the bank was now looking to sell itself.

Silicon Valley bank was not a small bank, it's the 16th largest bank in the country, holding $210 billion in assets. It acts as a major financial conduit for venture capital-backed companies, which have been hit hard in the past 18 months as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and made riskier tech assets less attractive to investors.

Venture capital-backed companies were being reportedly advised to pull at least two months' worth of "burn" cash out of Silicon Valley Bank to cover their expenses. Typically VC-backed companies are not profitable and how quickly they use the cash they need to run their businesses - their so-called "burn rate" - is a typically important metric for investors.

Diversified banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan pulled out of an early slump due to data released Friday by the Labor Department, but regional banks, particularly those with heavy exposure to the tech industry, were in decline.

Yet it has been a bruising week. Shares of major banks are down this week between 7% and 12%.

Skybird

03-10-23, 03:42 PM

^ You beat me to that story.

One can only pray that this is not the beginning of another landslide. Just short time ago the Silver Gate Capital Bank learned that it maybe is not a good idea to exclusively focus on financing cryptocurrency- and cyberdeals for its customers; now Silicon Valley Bank, ranked on 16 amongst US banks. SVB is the second biggest fincancier of startups in Silicon Valley with over 30,000 of such starting - or non-starting - customers. The HighTech sector lost feathers in recent weeks and months, and many startups had to withdraw their cash form the bank therefore, consuming it. The bank suffered immense loss of liquidity, trying to counter that by selling bonds worth 21 billion, but under value, since the bank is in an emergency and needed cash at any cost. It now has a deficit of 2 billion dollars. Customers empty their bank accounts in a rush to leave the ship before it sinks. Thats why the bank'S hope to save itself by selling its stocks did not work: it did not generate cash, but cash holders - customers - started to flee in droves. SVB stocks lost 60% value yesterday and was not traded today at all. Its fate now has been sealed by the authorities.

The fear is that this fate will be shared by other banks soon, too, because the economy is such that companies need money and thus emptying their bank accounts, bringing their banks into trouble that way. Banks thus need to sell bonds, but with now raised interest rates it means these bonds get assessed newly and their value is being reduced. This could lead to losses for the banks that mount even further the higher the need for cash by companies becomes: making them emptying their bank accounts even faster. Needing the banks to sell more bonds under value. Rising their losses. The changes in the Fed'S and ECB's interest rates may make sure that although the banks today probabaly would no "infect" each other like 15 years ago, banks individually and independently from each other could get caught in a maelstrom, due to the above explained mechanism.

If we would have a real money, then we would not have this criminal abuse called fractional reserve banking, and these things would not be possible neither in event nor in destructive reach and follow-on effects.

Core inflation is in meltdown mode since three quarters now, showing climbing inflation even in times when the normal inflation seems to stagnate or drop. Not good. Absolutely not good.

Trying to collect the currency units they flooded the market with by raising interests, will soone ror later cause collapse. Not doing so will sooner or later cause collapse. There is no way out anymore. They will sooner or later trigger what harmlessly is called a currency- reform, which means replacing the old one with a new one, a paper FIAT currency of course. It comes at the cost that most people will suffer expropriations not seen since several generations.

I am very, very pessimistic on all this, but that is probably no surprise for anyone here. To me the question is not if, but when.

Bonds should not even be a trading item. They should not even exist. There are so many abstract paper-and-ink inventions they call a "financial product" that are nothing but fraudulent schemes. But the fractional reserve banking madness is at the core of all evil.

"Credit is consumption in advance, which will be omitted in the future." For an intelligent person, this one sentence, written by Ludwig von Mises, is already the content of everything important to know about sound economic principles. That it is not understood shows how completely broken our "money" system and our way of credit-driven economy really is. Alles kaputt. Using credit in an economic cycle can only then not cause desaster if the credit is based on somebody else not consuming and so saving what he is not consuming. Then he actually has something in excess which he can lend to somebody else. But today we allow cretaign credit beign created from nothing, and wiohtoiut consumption renunciation. This is where the system starts to derail. The FIAT "money" and the fractional reserve system were created by states to spend more than their economies could support. And then we are stunned by the desaster that is homing in on us? There is not a single place in the world, not a single country, where peopel actually pay with actual money. We have no money worth that name, nowhere in the world. Bonds, dollars and euros, all that paper bits of leaflets: nothing of that holds a value, nothing of that is "money". Its state-sponsored fraud.

Rockstar

03-10-23, 04:45 PM

Now you see it. No you don’t! :D

Wells Fargo says 'technical issue' causing customers to report missing deposits

The bank sought to reassure frustrated customers that their accounts remained secure and said it was working to resolve the issue.

March 10, 2023, 4:21 PM EST
By Rob Wile

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/wells-fargo-says-technical-issue-causing-customers-report-missing-depo-rcna74419

A "technical issue" was causing some Wells Fargo customers to see missing deposits in their accounts, the bank said Friday.

In response to complains on Twitter, Wells Fargo representatives said that the issue may be leading customers to see incorrect balances or missing transactions but that their accounts "continue to be secure."

Wells Fargo said in a statement on Friday afternoon that it was aware that some customers’ direct deposit transactions "are not showing on their accounts."

"We are working quickly on a resolution and apologize for the inconvenience," the statement said.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

Rob Wile

Rob Wile is a breaking business news reporter for NBC News Digital.

Skybird

03-10-23, 05:27 PM

Sounds like the issues with Germany's Postbank and Deutsche Bank trying to melt together. Customers for weeks and months since last autumn were unable to access their accounts, online or at the counter. Service was cancelled, service personnel at the counter could not help, telephone banklign was down. Those who wn ated to cancel their accoutns found themsleve sunable to dfo so and also did not even get replies. For soem, the sisues remain until today - since last autumn. For small businesses, this can be exitentially thgret5aneing - and it has crushed some of such businesses.

Germany, 2023 A.D.

Both banks tried since almost ten years to merge this way, one would have assumed that this is time enough to prepare for the final tehcncial joining. Well, never underestimate the Germans' ability to mess things always further up.

Jimbuna

03-11-23, 04:05 AM

Safest place for your money will soon be to hide it under your bed :)

Skybird

03-11-23, 06:45 AM

Safest place for your money will soon be to hide it under your bed :)
True, but first transform it into real valuable assets: diamonds, gold, silver, stuff like that; else inflation kills your savings safely under your pillow. And even then the state, the biggest sponsor of organised crime in the world, can plunder you, by prohibitions or mounting penalty taxes when one day you liquidize these assets again and must pay horrendous taxes (=protection money).

The state always wins. The people always loose. They deserve it not any different, they endlessly legitmize the plunderers with their votes although they could be demanded, if they are no more teens, to know it better. Life experience, you know. If you get lied to, and lied to, and get lied to agaion, and then lied to and mor elies and always lies, you should know sooner or later what to expect from them. And if then you nevertheless legitmize them to conitnue, then you only get what you deserve and have opted for, and you have given up any right to complain or to criticise.

Everybody should know what he gets if he votes for any party, no matter which one. Lies and betrayal. The whole global situation proves it. People vote with best hopes and intentions: so how can it be that things are constantly detoriating then and that the situation is so much out of control?

People are like lambs being led to the slaughterhouse. Their freedom lies in that they can chose whether to enter through the left or the right gate.

I say so sinc emany yeras,a nd will contnue to say so as logn as the ylet me. Its only a question of time before such views will face legal sanctions, and will get suppressed, I am certain. The EU mulls a social scoring system according to Chinese example, the death of cash money allows total control and threatening non-conformal beings by cutting of their payment supply, and it wants that any criticism of the EU must first be checked and allowed by an EU authority that is to be created, else the content of unapproved criticism is getting criminalised and sanctioned. Bureaucrcay as a tool to establish tyranny.

Skybird

03-15-23, 07:03 AM

Credit Suisse does a Stuka-dive by over -20%. Its the second-biggest Swiss bank. Customers have withdrawn their funds in large numbers. The government and the bank's board of directors are trying to be optimistic and appeasing. Currently the situation has been caugh tup it seems, butat a muc lower value level.

If I may speculate: its only a quesaiton of tiem before both the FED (earliuer) and the ECB (later) lose their courage and stop - and reverse? - the higher

- interest course they plotted last year. Which in the long run of course will make things even much worse.

We need to allow that banks as well as zombie businesses who were put on life support in recent years but are not competitive and survivable anymore, leave the market. In Europe at least but I assume in the US as well, there are now way too many foul apples in the basket. That many nations demand banks, pension fonds and insurrances to "invest" :haha: in state bonds as well, does not make it better, but worse. Its a criminal abuse of power.

Skybird

03-15-23, 11:24 AM

Credit Suisse now at -30%.

Jimbuna

03-15-23, 11:27 AM

Credit Suisse shares plunge as bank fear widens.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64964881

Skybird

03-15-23, 12:16 PM

The central banks have created bubbles and bubbles, and then blew them up more and more.

Are we seeing the first cracks in the balloon hull?

The deposit guarantee system in Germany guarantees, depending on the institute association, 0.6 to 0.8% of the total customer deposits. It's already better positioned than the American one, but please - what are guarantees for not even 1% of the deposits?

Joys of fractional reserve banking, one of the biggest coups in the history of financial crime. Have fun.

Skybird

03-15-23, 03:16 PM

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
-----------------------------------

After the turbulence surrounding the Silicon Valley Bank, politicians and financial supervisors repeated it like a mantra: There is no risk of contagion, the big banks are now much more resilient. But the storm has not yet passed the financial markets, as the fall in the price of Credit Suisse shares now shows.

This time, however, it is not a medium-sized institute with a special business model like the Silicon Valley Bank. Now a major bank is on fire, and there should no longer be any doubts about it due to the strict equity and liquidity requirements. But investors mistrust the institute more and more. This can be seen not only from the fall in the share price, but also from the skyrocketing risk premiums on the bond market. These are now signaling increased default risks for the bank.

Credit Suisse's crisis of confidence is certainly due to many shortcomings that other financial institutions have avoided. However, Credit Suisse is not an isolated case because it has stuck to investment banking for too long. Deutsche Bank found itself in a similar situation not too long ago. She had to make a deep, painful cut and has now regained her footing.

Deep cuts are also needed at Credit Suisse, but time seems to be running out. Should the major Swiss bank falter, given its size and importance on the capital market, it could trigger a financial crisis like the one that followed the Lehman collapse in September 2008. Then the resilience of the banks would really be put to the test.

It is to be hoped that the management of Credit Suisse and the supervisors in Switzerland will finally be aware of their responsibility. Because the crisis of confidence surrounding Credit Suisse has been smoldering for too long.
----------------

Dargo

03-15-23, 03:39 PM

Dargo

03-15-23, 03:42 PM

Safest place for your money will soon be to hide it under your bed :)Clients' deposits are covered up to a limit of 100'000 CHF per client.

mapuc

03-15-23, 03:50 PM

The main cause behind all these economical crisis we have had since 1929 is....Money, thereafter shares and other money related stuff.

I'm the only one here on this forum-Who is dreaming about a money free society. Like it is in Star Trek.

Markus

Skybird

03-15-23, 04:00 PM

We already live in a money-free society, Markus. Nowhere in the world people pay with money. Which is the problem.

What we have is currency units - not money. And currency units are nothing more than counting aids.

Think you have a pear that I want and that you do not like, and I offer you an apple in exchange for your pear. You give me your pear, and I give you a piece of paper which reads "1 apple". Would you think you made a good deal? :03:

This way already started during the Napoleonic wars when Britain was practically bancrupt. Businessmen came together, lend - real, silver and goild-based - money to the crown, and ironically called themselves the bank of England for that, but 30, 40 years it was no joke anymore, but reality: an established, state-promoted fraudulent scheme. The crown collected and kept silver and gold, and handed out paper leaflets called bank notes. It continued in the American civil war when on both sides they sometimes could not pay their regiments' men with silverdollar anymore, and instead paid them with promissory notes for silver (which never got redeemed, of course). At that time there were over half a dozen silver dollars from private mints in circulation! One dollar of silver is one dollar of silver, no matter who mints it into a coin. The word "Dollar" comes from "Thaler","Taler", a Taler was a quantum unit, like karat, grams, ounces.

https://mises.org/library/monetary-breakdown-west

States and central banks are formidable forms of organised crime, plain and simple. The purpose of central banks is to prevent real money.

One ounce of gold currently buys and sells for around 1750-1900 Euros (in Germany, Dollar-Euro exchnage rates already considered). When I keep my oune of gold for thirty years and somebody else keeps his bundle of banknotes worth 1800 Euro, I know who of us two holds the better value in his hand in thrioty yeares form now on. As loing as the gansgter in the government have not annopucned a new gold prophibiiton and went on a plundering tour against the people again. I will still be able to get what you get for 31.1 grams of gold then, but he will not get in thirty years for his 1800 Euro what he may have gotten in our current present. That much is certain.

The key businesses the state has his hands in, are wars, blackm ailing protexciton money, and expropritation. The tools for these three purposes are called moral mission, taxes, and inflation. And inflation you can only have with paper currencies - not with real money.

Jimbuna

03-16-23, 06:38 AM

Credit Suisse's share price surged by 40%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64973321

Skybird

03-16-23, 06:54 AM

Oh look, another bailout.

Skybird

03-16-23, 12:03 PM

First Republic Bank drops by almost -40%, suffering from too many customers rmeoving their deposits. Several other American regional banks are in troubles, too.

Yellen says all is under control. Means: all red lights are on.

Jimbuna

03-16-23, 03:11 PM

More than likely :yep:

Skybird

03-16-23, 03:23 PM

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-and-others-in-talks-to-bolster-first-republic-4f9eeb76

Eleven banks have deposited $30 billion in First Republic Bank (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/FRC), according to a joint statement from the heads of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
“This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system,” the federal officials said.

Hm, I would call it different. Act of despair, maybe? They desperately try to contain a possible meltdown.

Skybird

03-16-23, 03:25 PM

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-and-others-in-talks-to-bolster-first-republic-4f9eeb76

Eleven banks have deposited $30 billion in First Republic Bank (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/FRC), according to a joint statement from the heads of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
“This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system,” the federal officials said.
Hm, I would call it different. Act of despair, maybe? They desperately try to contain a possible meltdown.

Meanwhile the ECB raises the base interest by 0.5% to 3.5%.

Skybird

03-17-23, 06:36 AM

The central banks were surprised by the high inflation. They acted too late, with not unexpected consequences for the markets – analyzes former ECB chief economist Jürgen Stark in a guest article.

https://www-faz-net.translate.goog/aktuell/wirtschaft/notenbanken-in-not-das-ende-des-grossen-geldpolitischen-experiments-18753652.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=de&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Skybird

03-18-23, 09:11 AM

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
------------------------------------
Many central banks are buying gold again. This bodes ill.

The world's central banks bought a net 1136 tons of gold last year. According to the World Gold Council, the last time European central banks purchased gold on a large scale was in 1967. At the time, the devaluation of the British pound and deficits in the U.S. balance of payments heralded the end of the international monetary system, dubbed "Bretton Woods" after a small town in the mountains of New Hampshire. Is the sharp increase in official gold purchases now again a portent that an international order is breaking down?

The Bretton Woods system was based on the fact that national currencies were tied to the value of gold via the dollar. This tie was severed when, in 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon abandoned the promise made to other countries since 1934 to exchange $35 for a troy ounce of gold. That was the end of the gold standard, which had governed the world economy since about 1880. Put simply, from now on the value of money was no longer backed by central banks' gold reserves, but solely by the central bankers' promise to keep the value of money stable.

The end of the international gold standard also meant a move away from fixed exchange rates. In Europe, a precursor to monetary union developed to prevent large exchange rate fluctuations. The rest of the world moved in principle to flexible exchange rates, in which some countries intervened sometimes more, sometimes less.

The change in the monetary policy framework after the collapse of Bretton Woods had a decisive impact on the need for gold and for reserve assets as a whole. The move to flexible exchange rates called into question the level of total foreign exchange reserves because, at least in principle, there was now no need to defend exchange rates. And because central banks no longer guaranteed gold cover, gold reserves actually became superfluous.

But the central banks did not want to keep their hands off gold. In memory of the economist Fritz Machlup, one can justify this with the theory that bears the cumbersome name "Mrs. Machlup's Wardrobe Theory of Foreign Reserves." According to this theory, Mrs. Machlup is not concerned with having enough clothes to wear. Her sole concern is that new clothes are always being added. By analogy, Machlup suspected central bankers of having a penchant for having more and more. He saw foreign exchange reserves as more of a desire than a necessity.

With or without Mrs. Machlup, it took about two decades after the fall of the gold standard for central banks to start divesting themselves of their gold bullion. This coincided with the fall of the Iron Curtain and the end of the East-West conflict. It seems reasonable to assume that gold was given special importance as a currency hedge or emergency reserve during the Cold War.

However, this beautiful theory is disturbed by the fact that the central banks of Canada, Australia and Belgium, which were among the first to sell gold, were truly not in the forefront of the Cold War.

Shortly before the turn of the millennium, economists Michael Bordo and Barry Eichengreen classified the gold reserves of central banks as a barbaric relic of the past and did not see a bright future for them. They found some evidence in their historical research that pointed to less rather than more gold in reserves. Less inflation, flexible exchange rates and fewer capital controls were associated with fewer gold reserves in the study. Tradition and inertia working in favor of gold would lose weight, Bordo and Eichengreen speculated.

They were right about that - until the financial crisis of 2008/9. Since then, central banks as a whole began to stockpile gold bullion again. Today, central bankers' gold reserves are once again higher than at the turn of the millennium. Eichengreen already asks with co-authors in a new study just published whether gold is no longer a barbaric relic after all. A clear answer they remain guilty.

The increase in gold reserves since the financial crisis has been fed by two developments. Central banks in the countries of North America and Western Europe, which the International Monetary Fund classifies as "progressive," largely stopped selling gold after the financial crisis. Developing and emerging economies, however, bought significantly more.

Eichengreen and his co-authors find evidence that developing and emerging economies in particular respond to greater economic policy uncertainty by holding more gold reserves. "Progressive" countries are more likely to respond to geopolitical risks, but this effect is less pronounced.

The largest gold buyers include Russia, China, Turkey and India. Russia, a gold producer, is of particular importance. China, for example, bought a lot of gold, but kept gold's share of its foreign reserves below 5 percent. Russia, on the other hand, has drastically increased the share of gold in its reserves to more than 20 percent since the global financial crisis.

This is likely explained by the fact that Russia has been subject to economic and financial sanctions imposed by the West since its occupation of Crimea in 2014. In any case, Eichengreen and his colleagues show a fairly close correlation between sanctions and gold reserves in their study. Developing and emerging countries that are subject to sanctions by America, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan react by increasing their gold reserves. In this way, they are trying to avoid the financial blockade of foreign exchange reserves. As early as 2021, Russia announced that it had now brought its gold reserves home in their entirety and that no more bars were stored abroad.

Against this background, the large gold purchases by central banks last year look like a gloomy omen. Already in Bordo and Eichengreen, we read that before World War I, Germany and quite a number of other countries began to exchange their foreign exchange reserves for gold.

Serena Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen, and Chima Simpson-Bell (2023): Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More? IMF Working Paper WP/23/14.Michael D. Bordo, Barry Eichengreen (1998): The Rise and Fall of a Barbarous Relic: The Role of Gold in the International Monetary System. NBER Working Paper No. 6436.Fritz Machlup (1966): The Need for Monetary Reserves. Reprints in International Finance No. 5, Princeton University.
---------------------------

Jimbuna

03-19-23, 05:11 AM

Switzerland's biggest bank, UBS, is in advanced talks to buy all or part of its troubled rival Credit Suisse.

An emergency $54bn (£44.5bn) lifeline from the Swiss National Bank has not resolved the issue.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65004605

Skybird

03-19-23, 07:02 PM

Deal is done on Credit Suisse.

If it shows anything than how dangerous and critical and unstable the situation is - not just in Switzterland, but internationally. Of course they dont say that so clearly. But I do. We balance on a razorblade.

https://www.dw.com/en/ubs-and-swiss-national-bank-agree-to-credit-suisse-takeover/a-65041855

And there are more banks in troubles. People are not totally stupid, they withdraw confidence from the (broken) system. Political measures, not just on the banks but also against citizens, will become more disinihibited.

em2nought

03-20-23, 01:23 AM

They better drill baby drill, pipeline baby pipeline, and border baby border before it's too late to rescue woke world. :har:
Close to 190 banks could face Silicon Valley Bank's fate, according to a new study
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2023/03/19/svb-collapse-new-banks-could-fail/11504269002/

Catfish

03-20-23, 02:43 AM

Deal is done on Credit Suisse.
https://www.dw.com/en/ubs-and-swiss-national-bank-agree-to-credit-suisse-takeover/a-65041855
Off topic here, after DW (Deutsche Welle (https://www.dw.com/en/dw-news/program-262267)) did so well in reporting about the Ukraine war and making the idiotic behaviour of the german government obvious, it will now be downsized, 200 DW employees fired.

And there are more banks in troubles. People are not totally stupid, they withdraw confidence from the (broken) system. Political measures, not just on the banks but also against citizens, will become more disinihibited.
What exactly is broken now that was not already broken in the past 30 or 100 years?
Whenever people in masses begin to withdraw money, due to misinformation, real crises or just panic, any bank will be bankrupt, that's called capitalism ;)

ECB or whatever interventions are not what is intended in competition, but with millions of people losing all their money overnight this intervention is probably justified.
If they draw some conclusions and change the system within reasonable time, that is ..

Jimbuna

03-20-23, 03:56 AM

Off topic here, after DW (Deutsche Welle (https://www.dw.com/en/dw-news/program-262267)) did so well in reporting about the Ukraine war and making the idiotic behaviour of the german government obvious, it will now be downsized, 200 DW employees fired.

What exactly is broken now that was not already broken in the past 30 or 100 years?
Whenever people in masses begin to withdraw money, due to misinformation, real crises or just panic, any bank will be bankrupt, that's called capitalism ;)

ECB or whatever interventions are not what is intended in competition, but with millions of people losing all their money overnight this intervention is probably justified.
If they draw some conclusions and change the system within reasonable time, that is ..

Pretty much how I see it :yep:

Skybird

03-20-23, 08:36 AM

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung - a SWISS paper:
----------------------------------------

A zombie is gone, but a monster is born

The state should never again have to prop up an ailing bank, it was said 15 years ago after the financial crisis. Now the emergency has arrived - and yet Credit Suisse must not go under. On the contrary, its takeover will make UBS all the more "too big to fail".
dit Suisse has wrought.

"As Friedrich Dürrenmatt said in his "The Physicists," "A story is finished when it has taken its worst possible turn. Watching the implosion of Credit Suisse in recent days, months, even years, one is reminded of this dictum. "The accident is at first improbable, then becomes more and more probable as time goes on, until it becomes a reality," Dürrenmatt said of his play.

Just months ago, no one thought the failure of Credit Suisse was possible. An accident, however, it is not. In 2007, the Swiss bank had a stock market value of 100 billion francs; last Friday, 7 billion of that was still left - the same amount as the Vaud Cantonal Bank. Thus, a huge destruction of value has taken place, caused by managers who negligently underestimated risks and helpless board members who too often failed to control the bank.

Credit Suisse's hubris consisted in believing that it was on the safe side after the financial crisis because - unlike UBS - it had survived the crisis without state aid. CS believed that it had found a lucrative niche in investment banking in particular, but its risk management was completely inadequate, as the accumulation of billions in losses shows.

Credit Suisse gambled away its trust, no one was willing to stand by it, and only a few, sometimes lukewarm, expressions of solidarity came from the business community. Last week, therefore, the only thing left to do was to play the end game. The decisive factor was not the lack of communication by the government or the SNB. Rather, the SNB did what one would expect from a lender of last resort in such a crisis: it rushed to the bank's aid with a huge injection of liquidity. But the fire could no longer be extinguished.

"Capitalism without bankruptcy is like religion without sin. It doesn't work," said economist Allan Meltzer. In other words: If a company does not have a functioning business model, it must be able to go bankrupt. This is probably true of Credit Suisse, as the destruction of value and the outcry from customers and creditors show, even if it has recently taken on panic-like characteristics.

Instead of winding up the company, it is now being absorbed by UBS. After all, CS shareholders are bleeding and will receive less than half of Friday's share price. But one might ask on the one hand: Why are there still 3 billion francs to be distributed to them at all? Because the federal government is simultaneously granting UBS guarantees for possible losses of 9 billion francs and such for certain liquidity assistance.

On the other hand, the shareholders have to swallow the merger simply because it has to happen quickly. They are deprived of their usual right to have a say. This is an alarming encroachment on their property rights. And what kind of signal is that sending to the market when UBS shareholders may not even want the deal?

Switzerland has spent more than a decade since the financial crisis working out rules to ensure that a bailout with risks to taxpayers would not happen again ("too big to fail" rules). These plans would provide that Swiss business, with its systemically important components such as payments, can be carved out and continue to operate.

The Financial Market Authority would also have broad powers to restructure a bank under such circumstances. But at the press conference, it was said that these regulations would not be applicable at all to such a case, in which confidence would be lost. So has there been years of misguided planning? Is "too big to fail" as virulent as it was 15 years ago?
"Too big to fail" rules as a farce?

The fact that the SNB and the financial supervisory authority pushed for the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS had to do, on the one hand, with the fear of a Monday stock market panic. On the other hand, there was international pressure from Washington and London.

Switzerland has now gotten rid of a zombie bank, but will wake up on Monday with a monster UBS. "Monster" because its new balance sheet total will be almost twice the size of Swiss economic output. The new UBS is thus all the more too big to be allowed to go under - "too big to fail" is thus back with full force.

The takeover of CS by UBS would probably not have been without alternative. One possibility besides the "too big to fail" regime: The state could have - and it is hard for a liberal to write this - made an offer for the bank itself right away, also at a fraction of the share price. It could then have privatized the bank or parts of it again as soon as possible, which would have prevented UBS from becoming a giant.

Would these variants have scared investors and the whole financial system so much more than what has now been agreed? Nobody knows. Just last week, bank supervisors and central banks were saying with conviction that the current turmoil was not comparable to 2008 because the banks were much more robust than they were then. This is now proving to be optimism of convenience, if the comments of those involved are to be believed.

What is certain is that the current resolutions have strong "collateral damage" that will linger. After all, if certain companies cannot go bankrupt, this undermines support for capitalism. The bailouts during the financial crisis had already worked in this direction. CS President Axel Lehmann is right: this March 19 is a historic and sad day. It is a black day for the financial center, for many CS employees and also for confidence in the market economy.
-----------------------

Mistrust between banks is spreading, internationally the willingness to lend money to each other has significantly suffered.

Thats what served as a catalyst in 2008 to bring the crisis up to tempo.

Once again, the public is being unrestrainedly fooled through and through.

Onkel Neal

03-20-23, 09:41 AM

https://archive.ph/FqJY4#selection-133.5-133.22

Isn’t it bizarre that so many people who cause problems then turn around and become heroes fixing the same problems they created?

Between the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and the green-laden $738 billion Inflation Reduction Act and paying people not to work, Bidenflation is roaring. It peaked last summer at 8.5% but is still running at 6%. In December President Biden, the newly self-declared inflation warrior, said, “My goal is simple: get prices under control without choking off economic growth.” And there it is: The Biden administration is trying to slay an inflation dragon that it created.

To help fight this inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised the federal-funds rate from near zero to 4.5% to 4.75% since January 2022. This has caught a lot of banks, such as Silicon Valley Bank, holding portfolios of underwater bonds and mortgage-backed securities....

Ya know, I don't even care as long as the present administration gets inflation back to sub4%, but I won't forget.

Skybird

03-21-23, 06:56 AM

https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/die-neue-ubs-wird-zu-einer-staatsbank-und-die-politik-wird-mitreden-wollen-ld.1731357?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto

Hope it translates (Google).

I rate the going with the CS and UBS as a disaster that will give birth to even more dramatic desaster in the future. With total assets twice the size of Switzerland's gross national product, the new monster bank is de facto a state bank, since "too big to fail" applies to it and thus the taxpayer bears all the risks: the whole of Switzerland is now held hostage. In addition, the demands of everyday political business, its ideological delusions and dictatorial pretensions, will be carried over into the inner workings of the UBS' banking and bank management, because "the bank owes its size to the state," and politicians and ideologues will demand, as a matter of course, that the bank therefore be used to finance particular political interests. After all, a giant has been created here which, if it stumbles, will trigger a chain reaction internationally, in the course of which there will be a new banking tsunami and this time perhaps the complete destruction of the financial system: we are dealing here with a concentrated risk beyond all reason.

No wonder, then, that the USB bosses did not want this merger and had to be forced into this deal with massive government "interference" - they were left no choice, got degraded to receivers of commands. Not only does it violate free-market common sense, but it also breaks some legal rules that would actually prevent such a move in a legally binding way and did not allow it. The new monster bank was created by state decree. It could become the gravedigger of Switzerland as a banking location, and of the Eurozone. The chances of this are even quite "good". The fact that this is being accepted, shows how dramatic the situation on the financial markets really is. In addition, a wave of lawsuits is to be expected, from funds and shareholders. In fact, this has already begun with corresponding announcements.

This, combined with the gigantic money destruction programs of the EU, which wants to order the compulsory "climate-renovation" of the entire (!!!) building stock in continental Europe ad hoc, and that does everything it can to make energy as expensive and unreliable available as possible and thus to cut off the economic basis of existence, will inevitably end in a catastrophe, a complete collapse first of the social communities, where the normal middle class has its financial basis of existence ruined, then of the superior state order, which will be able to hold itself in power more and more only with increasing violence and totalitarian attitude - until it can no longer do it.

The last one turns off the light, please. If then at all one still burns.

How could we only believe thirty years ago to have "defeated" socialism...?

Skybird

03-21-23, 07:16 AM

"Dive! Dive! Dive!" Despite a financial emergency infusion from other banks for First Republic Bank, its shares have crashed by another 47% on Monday.

The total loss in value since the beginning of the year is about 90%.

Jimbuna

03-24-23, 07:59 AM

Skybird

03-24-23, 11:59 AM

The Bank of England will "totally crash the economy" if they continue to keep interest rates at their current levels, an economist warns. On Thursday, the Bank announced that it will raise borrowing costs for an eleventh successive time to 4.25 percent from 4 percent.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/bank-of-england-warned-it-will-totally-crash-the-economy-over-interest-rate-decision/ar-AA1921nZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d275c1cc8e8f4c5db8bf3896b7e461f9&ei=10

Inflation is a hydra with many heads to chop off, and when you cut off one, two new are growing. Damned if you do and damned if you dont.

We now get the bill served for the past 15 and 50 years, for the ECB and the FED are in the same situation.

Either we junkies go on cold turkey - or we face continued addiction until the golden shot. Its not gonna be nice either way. The situation will be abused further by using it to push and finally enforce cashlessness, what will make evertyhing worse and people way more vulnerable and weak towards the state. Any many even want it this way, and think thats cool.

The blind show the stupids the way.

Jimbuna

03-24-23, 12:30 PM

Add to the above the growing numbers in France demanding Frexit and the cancellation of King Charles visit to said country.

Happy times ahead it would appear.

Skybird

03-29-23, 05:50 AM

The financial markets are hatching something; there can no longer be any doubt about that.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/finanzen/experten/gastbeitrag-von-gabor-steingart-unser-banksystem-steckt-in-grosser-gefahr_id_189640597.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Jimbuna

03-29-23, 06:15 AM

One thing for certain is the fact that the rich will get richer and the poor will become poorer.

Skybird

03-30-23, 03:52 AM

«The West is far too optimistic when it comes to India» - The Indian economic historian Ashoka Mody has written a book: It is an impressive reckoning with 75 years of politics in his homeland. A conversation about current and former Indian politicians and the mistakes the West is caught in.

https://www.nzz.ch/international/indien-ashoka-mody-ueber-die-schwaechen-der-indischen-wirtschaft-ld.1731293?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto

Jimbuna

03-30-23, 06:06 AM

mapuc

03-30-23, 10:30 AM

Someone posted this on a friends wall

I found it interesting I can't say how much of it is true.

The biggest collapse we have ever seen is underway. And we have politicians and national banks to thank for that, because they are the ones who have created this situation.
As we know, the dollar as the world's reserve currency is not backed by gold, but by confidence, trade and trade in world oil.

The dollar has lost confidence because the US and the West are using it as a weapon to ostracise other economies around the world.
Trade in oil they are also losing because Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, India, Brazil, Venezuela have started trading in their own currencies.

And that means goodbye and thank you to the dollar. So dollar as the world's reserve currency is collapsing. And because every currency is pegged to the dollar, the collapse cannot be stopped.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Markus

Skybird

03-30-23, 10:33 AM

Register for free and read on.
So they hid it again. NZZ does that, often. Thats why I used to post the translated full text in the past, but the managment said it is not happy with that anymore.

Edit. I tried the link I gave, and it still works for me. Problem must be due to localization issues.

Jimbuna

03-30-23, 01:40 PM

So they hid it again. NZZ does that, often. Thats why I used to post the translated full text in the past, but the managment said it is not happy with that anymore.

Edit. I tried the link I gave, and it still works for me. Problem must be due to localization issues.

Yes I think so :yep:

ET2SN

03-30-23, 01:50 PM

I like how we're already sleep walking as if 2020 never happened. :up:

:Kaleun_Goofy:

Skybird

03-31-23, 05:37 AM

This is the article on Indian economy I tried to link above, and how it gets massively overestimated by the West. We sometimes argue that India is our "ally" in blocking China and Chinese infleunce and eocnoimic dominance, but honestly said, I am sceptical about that, very. The economic status quo from which to advance is way more positive and advanced for China than for India, despite China's growing demographic problem. I also see India abusing the West's naivety for its own agenda, turning India into a Western money grave. I think its relevant and important that we realise these things in the West. India could cause another major wakeup call to global economy soon, the turmoils form which can be quote devastating. And almost nobody in the West expects it, all see only the opportunity and short term profits and the chance, or better the unfounded hope, to just continue with the old golden ways and methods - but not the immense inbuild structural risk that cannot be evaded.

"The West is far too optimistic when it comes to India"

Indian economic historian Ashoka Mody has written a book: It's a powerful reckoning with 75 years of politics in his homeland. A conversation about current and former Indian politicians and the mistakes the West has made.

Mr. Mody, your book is called India Is Broken. Is India really broken?

The problem is, and that was the reason for writing this book: In the past 75 years since independence, we in India have failed to meet the demand for jobs. The backlog of that demand has continued to grow. According to my calculations, the Indian economy will need 200 million jobs in the next ten years to employ its working-age population. Over the past decade, job growth has been zero or negative. The Indian economy has not produced jobs. And is thus fundamentally broken.

What about the politics?

There is a government failure. Essential public services like education, health care, a functioning judicial system, quality of water and air - all these are hardly delivered. There is a dichotomy in India: on the one hand, world-class education and health care for the privileged. On the other hand, very poor education and health care for the vast majority.

Reading your book, one gets the impression that in 75 years since Indian independence, no politician has really cared about the well-being of the population.

Yes, that's the case; it's a big theme in my book. Almost every politician paid lip service to the Indian masses, but no one delivered. They ignored the interests of the masses. And now we see this shocking unemployment in the country.

East Asian countries like Japan and later South Korea and Taiwan experienced an economic miracle. Why did industrialization fail in India?

India focused on developing heavy industry in the 1950s. This focus created few jobs. Light and labor-intensive industries did not develop. This was different from Japan and South Korea or Taiwan. These countries differed in two main ways: They had early universal primary education and brought women into the workforce. Simply put, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan created jobs in light industry, were more productive thanks to education, started a dynamic of increasingly educated and healthier successor generations, exported - and grew.

Why hasn't India invested more in education?

Creating good education is hard work. It's not just about building a school. You have to have good teachers. The teachers have to actually show up for work. Children need to be healthy and well nourished to absorb the material. Success takes time and a culture of cooperation and trust between all the political players: if you do your part, I'll do mine, and in five years there may be good results. Because many people are involved, it is difficult to link success to a single politician. So it's not worthwhile for that single politician to invest in education. It is easier for him to inaugurate a highway. Because this is visible.

Last year, the government announced that it would not participate in the Pisa study for the second time - in the last measurement in 2009, Indian schoolchildren were ranked second to last. Does Indian education have a quality problem?

Yes, since the 1990s, almost all children attend elementary school. But the quality of education is still poor. The biggest problem is the quality of teachers. It's a system that has become increasingly corrupt: teachers are now relatively well paid in India, so many want this job. But to become a teacher, you need a certificate. Many local politicians use bribes to obtain a license to certify teachers. Students pay these politicians a lot of money to get the certificate, even though the quality of education is poor. These students become teachers who are happy with their jobs but have no real training or incentive to teach. Everyone benefits, only the students suffer.

Next year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have been in power for ten years. He came into office as an economic reformer - in his home state of Gujarat, he had ensured an economic upswing. How do you assess the years under Modi?

Narendra Modi was celebrated for the so-called Gujarat model. The problem was that there was little research on what this model actually brought. Gujarat had high economic growth because the sub-state subsidized large companies. So a lot of entrepreneurs were happy. But did this model create jobs on a large scale? Or improved education? None of the above. So is it surprising that we see the same deficits now at the national level?

And yet, India's economy is growing; according to the government, gross domestic product rose by more than nine percent last year. Commentators close to the government speak of historic growth figures.

India's GDP fell after the first covid wave, recovered, and then collapsed again after the second wave. The cited growth came after that slump. GDP is not growing, it is recovering.

How big is the growth actually?

Over the past three years, the economy has grown by an average of 3.5 percent per year - about the same as before Covid. The government derives medium-term growth figures based on the recovery phase, which is misleading. International agencies make the same mistake. There is similar blind optimism about digitalization in India, for example the Unified Payments Interface introduced by the government - almost everywhere in India you can now pay with your cell phone. That's good. But this success leads to the hope that technology will solve all problems: be it by means of e-learning for children or apps for health workers. But history shows that technology is never a substitute for human development. And we still don't have it. In the last national budget, the share of spending on health and education fell once again.

In your book, you write about India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. He built dams and steel mills in the 1950s; he wanted to take India forward with a "big push." Today, Modi's government measures itself by airports and highways built. Are we seeing Modi's "big push" right now?

The "big push" is a very seductive economic strategy because it creates visible structures that a politician can celebrate as successes. But economic development happens at the deepest level, and its factors are harder to see. It needs norms of what is right and what is wrong in private and public life; willingness to cooperate and commitment. Let me give you an example: There are three huge garbage dumps here in Delhi, one of them in Ghazipur. The garbage burned there for the first time in 1992. So there is a mountain of garbage in this city that has been burning on and off for thirty years. The measures to solve the problem are known, but no one takes responsibility. Instead, we talk about possible semiconductor production in India.

Western diplomats and entrepreneurs often only want to see the one India: the one with rapid digitization.

Many Indians can now pay by smartphone, many work online, it all sounds very glamorous. But further down the income scale, it only plays a minimal role. For the vast majority of Indians, the reality is living with a burning landfill. Or with polluted, dying rivers. Digitization will not solve India's core problems.

Is the West too optimistic when it comes to India?

Much too optimistic. I think the world is fundamentally wrong here. Today, India is said to be geopolitically important. Perhaps that explains the glorified view of the West. But I'll make a prediction: Even in the metrics that the world can see and measure, the luster will peel off India in the next three years. And what about the metrics the world doesn't see? I fear India's problems will only get worse there.

You mention geopolitics: The West is moving away from China, and India wants to benefit. Is India becoming the new China?

Those who say so are mistaken. At least when it comes to the economy. I say it simply: China has many problems, but China has an excellent education system. China is ready for the 21st century, India is not. Some manufacturers are turning away from China, Apple producers Foxconn and Wistron are building new factories in India. But their share of total production is marginal. Most manufacturers are moving from China to Vietnam; American manufacturers are going to Mexico.

Can India close the gap with China?

Not while I'm alive. China and India are totally different countries: material progress in China is based on the provision of public goods. I keep coming back to my core message: If there is no progress in human development, there can be no sustainable economic growth. This gap is forgotten by politicians in India. Closing it will take time and a lot of effort, which I do not see at present.

In 1951, at the first census, India had 360 million people. Today, there are 1.4 billion. A recurring motif in Indian history is the "angry young man," the frustrated unemployed young man. How is the "angry young man" doing today?

Since the 1970s, the "angry young man" has existed in movies, but also in real life. In real life, the "angry young man" has learned that the state is very strong: when there were major protests, the state always cracked down with a very heavy hand. The "angry young man" also became a criminal - he saw no alternative and joined organized crime. And the "angry young man" became the foot soldier of Hindu nationalism, Hindutva.

The state did not provide jobs, but an ideology?

The Hindutva message is very powerful, it is very old, and it stirs up strong emotions. The German legal philosopher Carl Schmitt wrote in 1932 of the friend-enemy distinction in politics - us versus them. And what a powerful, unifying message that can be. That's what we're seeing again in India today.

India flirted with authoritarianism back in the 1970s, when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi declared a state of emergency. Now India again has a prime minister with authoritarian traits.

Indian elites have always hoped that an authoritarian figure would make their lives better. I think the Indian elite are afraid of the Indian masses. Where things go from here is hard to gauge. There remains hope for the wisdom of the Indian electorate, and that they will come out in favor of democracy. But the Hindutva forces are very strong at the moment. We should not close our eyes to that.

Are you actually optimistic about India?

I am not optimistic about India today. The living conditions of hundreds of millions of Indians are precarious. And I don't see anyone in politics addressing these problems. I read a lot, including in the international media, about how well India is doing at the moment. This gap between presentation and reality makes me even more pessimistic. Because it means the big problems are not being addressed.

In your book, you say that democracy has betrayed the Indian people. How?

It has not given them the opportunity to live honorable, decent lives. India's cities are among the most polluted in the world. Citizens wait years for a judge to hear their case.

They demand a new political culture.

Successful democracies have good institutionalized norms and accountability. Usually, these norms originated in small local communities - such a structure tends to create cooperation and trust. In our country, these norms have eroded. We need to rebuild them, in the villages and the districts, and hope that this political culture will be carried to higher levels of government. If we don't create a civil society consciousness and embed it in the politics and structures of the country - then all the problems we've been talking about will keep coming back.

Why has this civil society consciousness eroded since independence?

That's a good question; I don't know the exact answer. But I think part of the problem is that progress has always been understood as a centralized "big push," not a team effort of an entire society. Bad economic policy is just a mirror of bad political culture. The two are lapsed together.

Ashoka Mody
Economist grew up in India, where he also studied. He later worked for the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The 67-year-old is Visiting Professor of International Economic Policy at the elite U.S. university of Princeton and has since become an American citizen. His book "India Is Broken - A People Betrayed" was published at the beginning of the year.

Skybird

04-04-23, 02:33 PM

LINK: For citizens it gets dangerous if there is no more cash money. (https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/die-buerger-muessen-sich-bewusst-werden-wie-gefaehrlich-es-fuer-sie-wird-wenn-es-kein-bargeld-mehr-gibt-ld.1732555?_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_sl=auto)

The war against cash money is a crime against man and liberty. If there is no cash money, man is utmost vulnerable, depending on and at the mercy of political godfathers. He can be theratend and sancitoned like today already is done with Chinese social scoring systems.

And future state crimes such as the allocation of CO2 accounts to each citizen, which if exhausted will result in them being sanctioned or the payment process being cancelled, are made possible in the first place by cashlessness and the digital linking of the credit card and the receipt with the listed items.

The state could also gag you if you are cirticla of it, by blocking xyour banking account. You then are unable to buy even the kost profind necessities of daiuly life. You canbot escape by buying a plane ticket.

And still many people just shrug their shoulders and do not get it and do notcare. I don't get it what is wrong with people. They just grin and say "its sexy", "its comfortable" (well, is it?), "it serves a good cause of fighting money laundering" (thats wrong), "its so adult to pay with plastic" (that argument proves better than any other how infantile the speaker is). Has TV and media hysteria on a thousand of oh so important topics completely lobotomized people?

Prior to the introduction of the euro, Italy unceremoniously took a few per thousand of all bank deposits and transferred them to the state treasury, with the push of a button - bang! The state was thus able to access billions, and the citizens did not even notice this during the currency changeover. This general amputation of all bank deposits was a beacon for me. During the banking crisis in Cyprus in 2013, the gods of Western finance - the International Monetary Fund, the ECB, the EU Commission - wanted all customer deposits in Cypriot banks to be converted into shares in those banks. In other words, they wanted to expropriate all depositors and savers. The outcry against this outrageous act was too great, and the plan was not implemented. But the case shows that the highest monetary authorities are not afraid to resort to drastic measures. Governments have the power to take away, confiscate and tax bank assets.

Cashless payment is the new method with which the powerful try to put all free citizens in invisible chains. And what do most people do? They shrug their shoulders. They grin.

Retarded idiots.

Not before it has been completely stripped of them, people will realise they value of liberty. But then it is too late, and they will need to spend their life in serfdom and servility and obedience.

Skybird

04-09-23, 07:15 PM

Very well described and explained. Especially the last part from 01:01:20 on is speaking from my heart ("What goes wrong in Germany").

Knallhart Klartext gesprochen. And he is right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU07P9dp2fY

Use English subtitles. The final statements in the last ten minutes are worth it, they are glorious. I sense this man is at least as furious as I am.

The rest before also is very, very good. He knows the matter he talks of.

Skybird

04-10-23, 06:36 AM

Once again, Markus Krall - one of the very, very, very few actually intelligent economic experts we still have at all. The trained monkeys that the state media present to us are just that: propaganda puppets who are supposed to take the masses for fools so that they keep quiet while they fall into the abyss.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDo5fA8UpTQ

Its not about things still to come. Things already have started, they happen right now.

Rockstar

04-11-23, 09:50 AM

Financial stability risks have increased rapidly as the resilience of the global financial system has been tested by higher inflation and fragmentation risks.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2023/04/11/global-financial-stability-report-april-2023?cid=sm-com-tw-spring2023flagships-GFSREA2023001

Chapter 1 analyzes the recent turmoil in the banking sector and the challenges posed by the interaction between tighter monetary and financial conditions and the buildup in vulnerabilities since the global financial crisis. The emergence of stress in financial markets complicates the task of central banks at a time when inflationary pressures are proving to be more persistent than anticipated. Smaller and riskier emerging markets continue to confront worsening debt sustainability trends. Chapter 2 examines nonbank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) and the vulnerabilities that can emerge from elevated leverage, liquidity mismatches, and high levels of interconnectedness. Tools to tackle the financial stability consequences of NBFI stress are proposed, underscoring that direct access to central bank liquidity could prove necessary in times of stress, but implementing appropriate guardrails is paramount. Chapter 3 analyzes the effect of geopolitical tensions on financial fragmentation and explores their implications for financial stability—including through potential capital flow reversals, disruptions of cross-border payments, impact on banks’ funding costs, profitability, and credit provision, and more limited opportunities for international risk diversification. Based on the findings, it draws policy recommendations aimed at strengthening financial oversight, building larger buffers, and enhancing international cooperation.

Full report: https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/GFSR/2023/April/English/text.ashx

Rising geopolitical tensions have intensified con- cerns about global economic and financial fragmen- tation. Geopolitical tensions have increased globally over the past few years amid deteriorating diplomatic ties between the United States and China, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.1 This increase is reflected in the growing incidence of geopolitical threats and con- flicts, a rise in military spending across economies, and increased disagreement in the voting behavior of the United States and China on foreign policy issues in the United Nations (Figure 3.1). The escalation in geopolitical tensions has raised concerns about greater geoeconomic fragmentation—a policy-driven reversal of economic and financial integration, often guided by strategic considerations (Aiyar and others 2023)—that could be costly for the world economy.2

Skybird

04-30-23, 11:42 AM

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65441302

Shares in First Republic plunged last week after it admitted customers had withdrawn $100bn in deposits in March.

Not the first event of this case. Has anyone defined a number from how many banks on this is called a "bank run"...?

Rockstar

05-04-23, 01:29 PM

We have surpassed the damages and loses in 2008.

https://youtu.be/Vnb-2XVuFKM

Jimbuna

05-07-23, 09:28 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivU-3PTLWlI

Jimbuna

05-09-23, 04:19 AM

Sterling beats the dollar and euro to become 'the best performing' currency

Sterling has become the best performing currency for the year to date out of the G10 group of major currencies, figures show. The pound gained 4.7 percent against a weaker dollar and ahead of an expected interest rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday (May 11).

G10 currencies, which are among the world's most popular, include the pound, US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Norwegian krone and Swedish krona.

Markets expect the BoE to raise base rate by 25 percentage points on Thursday, pushing the key rate up to 4.5 percent as the Bank battles to bring down Britain's double-digit inflation of 10.1 percent.

The decision will come with the BoE's quarterly Monetary Policy Report as well as the minutes of its rate-setting meeting.

Investors will be closely watching Thursday's press conference with Bank Governor Andrew Bailey for clues as to what the Bank will do next.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/sterling-beats-the-dollar-and-euro-to-become-the-best-performing-currency/ar-AA1aUtdD?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8d39f767b16646f481bbefdd77bc5451&ei=12

Skybird

05-12-23, 08:35 AM

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/finanzen/staatsfinanzen-willkommen-in-phantasialand_id_193576337.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Anyone who has to follow necessity has previously refused reason.

Rockstar

05-15-23, 06:31 PM

:D
https://youtu.be/4iGCPmVb04g

Skybird

05-19-23, 11:43 AM

https://www.tichyseinblick.de/kolumnen/aus-aller-welt/eu-steuern-gerechtigkeit-entwicklungslaender-arbeitslohn-buerokratie/

The full article is behind a fake paywall, click "ich unterstütze bereits", and you can pass.

A report on reforming EU funding, adopted by a large majority in Parliament on Wednesday, hid a bizarre proposal that two Liberal and European People's Party MEPs had floated back in January: All importers who import products from developing countries where labor wages are too low should pay money to the EU (i.e., not to the workers). The name of the idea is "Fair Border Tax" or, in the meantime, "Fair Border Mechanism."

A garment producer exporting to the EU would have to declare the salary costs of its workers and employees to customs and pay the difference to a fictitious minimum wage to the EU as a tax.

In Bangladesh, for example, the poverty line is a daily wage of about $3.65. If it turns out that the workers receive 2.60 US dollars per day, the garment-producing company would have to pay the difference, i.e. 1.05 US dollars, not to the workers but to the EU. So, in the name of justice, the EU wants to make money from low-paid workers in the Third World in the hope that they will therefore be paid better.

In all of this, of course, it must be remembered that prices in Bangladesh for everyday goods are only a tenth of those in Germany. A filling lentil stew (dhal), for example, can be had for 60 cents at a snack bar.

The difference between the low wages of developing countries and a "minimum wage" defined by the World Bank is thus supposed to fill the coffers of the EU. This is supposed to ensure that wages there rise and thus nothing more flows into the EU coffers. The motto: Fill my pockets so that they remain empty.

The aim of the exercise should be that this becomes too stupid for the producers in Bangladesh and that they pay higher wages instead of the duty. This crazy idea came from the deputies Valérie Hayer from France and José Manuel Fernandes from Portugal, she a liberal, he a Christian Democrat, so not from the Greens and not from the Socialists. Unworldly world-saving ideas have spread almost across the entire political spectrum.

What is even more mind-boggling, however, is that this was adopted by a majority in the European Parliament. Knowledge of the Third World here seems to be limited to TV movies and woke documentaries. Who among the parliamentarians involved has spent any length of time living in the Third World? Who has knowledge of life in developing countries? Obviously nobody.

[...]

Jimbuna

05-19-23, 12:25 PM

Looks like the screws are being tightened economically against Russia but despite numerous previous sanctions there doesn't appear to be any detrimental effect.

Hopefully this next tranche will have some effecy.

Rishi Sunak has said he wants to ensure "Russia pays a price" for the war in Ukraine, after announcing new sanctions targeting Russian exports.

Speaking to the BBC's Chris Mason at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, the prime minister said he was leading the way with new sanctions on Russia.

He said he hoped other countries would follow suit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65632568

Skybird

05-19-23, 03:43 PM

Those sanctions, although they seem to drive a dent or two into Russia over the long term, only would influence the Russian government if that were a government that cares for the wellbeing of the Russian population. Unfortunately for all living on this planet that is not the case, and never was, historically.

Jimbuna

05-20-23, 07:05 AM

I totally agree but the west can do little more short of going to war.

Skybird

05-24-23, 04:22 PM

Their dagger at our throats.

https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/sklavengeld_statt_bargeld?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

War on cash money, and a social scoring system a la China - the perfect recipe to establish a dicatorship that cannot be resisted against. The driving fore behidn it again is this most dispicable monument of organised crime: the EU and its right hand, the ECB. The options for crimes committed by the state against its slaves are infinite, if these two instruments get established.

And many people will even have applauded it in, and will have striven towards it in anticipatory obedience. :shifty: :hmph:

Skybird

06-19-23, 03:53 AM

This article is from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung - 100 years ago.

https://www-faz-net.translate.goog/aktuell/wirtschaft/historische-hyperinflation/die-ungeheuerliche-grausamste-entscheidung-der-weltgeschichte-frankfurter-zeitung-von-1923-18974177.html?printPagedArticle=true&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp#pageIndex_3 (https://www-faz-net.translate.goog/aktuell/wirtschaft/historische-hyperinflation/die-ungeheuerliche-grausamste-entscheidung-der-weltgeschichte-frankfurter-zeitung-von-1923-18974177.html?printPagedArticle=true&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp#pageIndex_3)

Note that the authors back then referred to the family context as the last safety for those who fell. Today, the institution of family gets systematically mocked of and destroyed, many families are so dysfunctional and are just one-two generation constructions that in our time the family in many modern Westenr places is not suitable or too non-existent as if it could be of existence-saving help. Three or four generation families living together under one roof is practically unknown.

Jimbuna

06-21-23, 08:10 AM

Here is a pretty good article setting out the woes of the UK at present.

Voices: ‘The monster is out of its cage’: how Brexit set inflation loose to feed on Britain https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/voices-the-monster-is-out-of-its-cage-how-brexit-set-inflation-loose-to-feed-on-britain/ar-AA1cPXt3?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=20ba8e02fda241d09b5333d48d0bf578&ei=15

Skybird

07-01-23, 05:51 PM

The text to the film:

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/finanzen/experten/gastbeitrag-von-rainer-zitelmann-planwirtschaft-ein-neuer-film-zeigt-wie-sich-das-leben-in-polen-veraendert-hat_id_197444506.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

The film to the text:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBIhsZ9GNHc&t=71s

On the topic, the same author:
https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/finanzen/polen-ist-ein-beispiel-fuer-die-erfolgsgeschichte-des-kapitalismus_id_172127337.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Apparently Poland has started to slip off the success track again, which is a pity. Needlessly so - for opportunistic voter bribery only.

Skybird

07-24-23, 05:42 AM

BRICS states founding a new curency, maybe even grounded on a gold standard?

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/experts/konkurrenz-zum-us-dollar-fuehren-die-brics-laender-im-august-den-goldstandard-ein_id_199903524.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

And if they would do it with a gold standard - would this then make a panicking West declaring a new gold prohibition for private owners? The criminals at the top of our states must be trusted with every outrage.

em2nought

07-24-23, 05:46 AM

BRICS states founding a new curency, maybe even grounded on a gold standard?

Oh crap, I may have waited too long. I don't think that would be good for me, at least not yet. Hopefully they will flounder on a rocky coast of corruption.

I'm hoping to be all in on gold by mid 2024

Jimbuna

07-24-23, 05:59 AM

If you want rid of any excess I can forward my mailing address :)

Skybird

07-24-23, 06:38 AM

Oh crap, I may have waited too long. I don't think that would be good for me, at least not yet. Hopefully they will flounder on a rocky coast of corruption.

I'm hoping to be all in on gold by mid 2024
I made a 60-70% gain over the past 8 years. :O:

mapuc

08-20-23, 05:53 PM

Reading about Chinas economy in our CHN thread.

Lead me to this thread and the question.

How much would a Chinese crash in economy affect the world ?

Markus

Rockstar

09-26-23, 09:24 AM

Who ya going to trust, Jerome Powell (Fed Chairman) or those ‘crazies’ warning you about central bank digital currencies?

Yes, we will have the ability to turn off your money if you disobey us. But trust me, we would NEVER actually do that to you. We are the Federal Reserve and the largest central bank on the planet. We control the US Dollar. Have we ever done anything that wasn't in the best interests of our citizens?

Trust me. I got this covered on your behalf.

—————-

"When we lose cash and you've only got central bank digital currencies, the computer will know what it is you're trying to do before you even do it"

"If they say you can't leave your house more than 5 miles, you try and buy a bottle of water 6 miles
from home, you won't be able to"

Former Pfizer Vice President Dr Mike Yeadon.

Brought to you by Pfizer. :D

Jimbuna

09-26-23, 09:49 AM

:06:

Skybird

09-26-23, 02:05 PM

He is right, Jim. I am warning of right this since long. And believe it, they will do this sort of thing. Namely regarding meat and dairy consumption. Personal CO2 year accounts will also come.

Dargo

09-26-23, 02:21 PM

Reading about Chinas economy in our CHN thread.

Lead me to this thread and the question.

How much would a Chinese crash in economy affect the world ?

MarkusBad but not the end other countries in Asia will take over production do not think the CCP will let this happen this what the CCP always feared the most a Chinese crash will cause dissent that is on their 1st problem that they do not want the ghost of revolt. The CCP already begun purging the army because of corruption, that will be done in the economic sector also soon if the economy does not pick up.

Rockstar

09-28-23, 08:55 PM

For those who understand how Cramer’s financial advice always turns out.

We are so screwed. Inverse Cramer

https://i.postimg.cc/05nJ3KP6/IMG-2857.jpg

Rockstar

09-28-23, 08:59 PM

Bad but not the end other countries in Asia will take over production do not think the CCP will let this happen this what the CCP always feared the most a Chinese crash will cause dissent that is on their 1st problem that they do not want the ghost of revolt. The CCP already begun purging the army because of corruption, that will be done in the economic sector also soon if the economy does not pick up.

We’ve been opening up trade with new partners and increasing it with others for a while now. Mexico recently replaced China as our largest trading partner.

Jimbuna

09-29-23, 11:53 AM

Yeah but wasn't that just trading in people? :)

Rockstar

10-16-23, 12:46 PM

Hey everyone the economy in 2024 could be just tiny bit concerning. Here’s an idea to help get you by. :up:

During the Great Depression, onions were a commonly grown and easily stored vegetable, making them both abundant and, notably, cost-free. Simultaneously, peanut butter was an economical ingredient. Hence, the Bureau of Home Economics formulated a recipe for peanut butter-filled onions as a convenient solution for American homemakers to provide nourishment to their families.

This peculiar dish's recipe was widely featured in newspapers and magazines throughout the 1930s and eventually made its way onto American dining tables as an affordable, palatable, straightforward, and nutritious meal suitable for any time of day.

This hodgepodge comprised baked onions stuffed with a mixture of peanut butter and stale bread crumbs. Unfortunately, these components combined to create an unappetizing dish that was consumed solely out of necessity to alleviate hunger.

Mmmmmmmm. :03:

https://i.postimg.cc/8CDMqZR8/IMG-2956.jpg

Skybird

10-16-23, 01:49 PM

If there is no beef available anymore I will turn to become a zombie. Two legged cattle there will be plenty around to fulfill my new carnivore needs. :arrgh!:

Skybird

10-22-23, 03:08 AM

How bond vigilantes will force central banks to end the fight against inflation.

https://www-welt-de.translate.goog/wirtschaft/article248002012/Steigende-Zinsen-Die-Rueckkehr-eines-Schreckgespenstes-am-Finanzmarkt.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

And all this idiocy only because the debts of states are beyond sanity and politicians since always are incapable to responsibly deal with money.

Rockstar

10-22-23, 03:28 PM

I remember someone here pointing out how shutting down the economy, lockdowns, and printing free money (The government’s cure) would be more deadly than the disease, they were right. I actually kinda feel bad for the next president having to inherit this mess and of course get blamed for it by party fanboys. But if you think about it wasn’t the president or congress that printed up 7 trillion in COVID bailouts. It’s the fault of every one the party fanboy’s living in fear who demanded the isolation, lockdowns which shut down the economy. It’s your fault.

https://youtu.be/X0naDa1Yw-U?feature=shared

Skybird

10-22-23, 04:24 PM

^ "The FED could loose its independence."

What...? It were politicians/governments founding central banks, after the precedental founding of the bank of England. Central banks serve the purpose governments have assigned to them, and they do it from beginning on: they inflate currency in circulation so that politicians have the play money to bribe voters to elect them by making unsustainable promises that int he long run are beyond the national economy's reach to support. Or to finance war: it was the debts from the Napoleonic war that led to the forming up of private lenders that later became legitimately the "Bank of Enland" and then more and dropped under governmental control and legislation over the cause of three decades. Other central banks skipped that foreplay and immediately founded them as an extension of the government structure.

No central bank has ever been "independent", and never will be. Its chief staff is at the mercy of the government. Always. It does not take crime and violence to enforce compliance, though. Allowing self-enrichment and giving privileges and then hinting at that both can be cancelled, is enough. Centrla banbks are an extension of the state structure. They are an integrated part of the system.

Central bank cannot loose what they never had: "independence". They do not give orders endlessly - in the end they receive orders.

Neither the FED's nor the ECB's policies and their changes are surpising or unexpected. They truly fulfill their purpose for thwich they were founded. Independence was not part of that intention. Never.

See, the problem is when a state claism for itself the exclusive monopoly to mint coins and print banknotes. Thats were the misery begins. The other arch sin is fractional reserve banking, and a currency that is not backed 1:1 by tangible goods whose value is determined by the market, but can and is politically determined and influenced by government's interests and agendas. It is here when a moeny is no money anymore, but just a worthless currency. A counting unit of no intrinsic value. And over time, the buying value of each of these currencies tends to zero.

Rockstar

10-22-23, 09:21 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJyFVD33jI8

em2nought

10-23-23, 01:30 AM

Hey everyone the economy in 2024 could be just tiny bit concerning. Here’s an idea to help get you by. :up:

During the Great Depression, onions were a commonly grown and easily stored vegetable, making them both abundant and, notably, cost-free.

I think I could eat an onion sandwich. When I order Bacon McDoubles once I get them home I pile up a generous mound of chopped onion on top. I can do pretty good on refried beans too as long as it's Rosarita brand to which I add a can of low salt kidney beans. :D

https://target.scene7.com/is/image/Target/GUEST_22df8a14-019c-4d2b-8448-974a2a27b041?wid=1200&hei=1200&qlt=80&fmt=webp

Rockstar

10-24-23, 04:34 PM

Totalitarian Democracy anyone?

https://youtu.be/mTAjDax8djI?feature=shared

mapuc

10-24-23, 04:52 PM

What would happen to US economy if rest of the world goes from Dollars to Euro/Other currency as payment ?

Markus

em2nought

10-24-23, 08:59 PM

What would happen to US economy if rest of the world goes from Dollars to Euro/Other currency as payment ?

Markus

Nothing good for the USA.

Rockstar

11-03-23, 09:25 AM

Shares of Maersk plunge 18% as shipping giant announces 10,000 job cuts, says profit will be at lower-end of guidance (CNBC)

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/03/shipping-giant-maersk-announces-10000-job-cuts-warns-of-volatility.html

Shipping giant Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, on Friday announced plans to reduce its workforce by more than 10,000 people and said it expected profit to be at the low end of prior guidance.

The firm’s Denmark-listed shares had fallen 18% by early afternoon to their lowest level since October 2020.

“Our industry is facing a new normal with subdued demand, prices back in line with historical levels and inflationary pressure on our cost base,” CEO Vincent Clerc said in a statement, adding that overcapacity in most regions had driven down prices.

Skybird

12-01-23, 11:43 AM

OPEC has decided a substantial production cut. Still, prices do not go up, but stall and go down. That means most likely that the global demand is dropping and this again indicates that the economy is contracting. For national economies living on the edge of a razor blade already, this means no good news, but could mean that they get kicked out off the saddle. Which is the intention behind Russia support for this OPEC policy: to further increase global chaos and then benefitting from that. The russians closely coordinated this move with the Saudis. The Saudis play ball, which tells more than anything that they decouple from the US and look for new friendships a consequences of the disastrous ME policy started by Obama and continued by Trump, spiced up further by endless European moral chilli poweder and endless lecturing.

The West should be deeply concerned about how the Middle East and large parts of Africa are giving Europe the cold shoulder. Once again, to my disappointment, it isn't. At least not officially, and not enough. And certainly not in Germany.

The accelerating speed by which Europe looses global relevance, is breathtaking.

Also, Europe's relation with South America is suffering, and gets disillusionised more and more.

:doh:

https://media.tenor.com/37blLL4FQPQAAAAC/moving-spiral.gif

Skybird

12-20-23, 03:54 AM

https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/ein_weiterer_eu_sargnagel_fuer_mittelstaendische_u nternehmen?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Another EU nail in the coffin for medium-sized companies: the EU is now forcing companies to examine their entire “value chains” for “actual or potential adverse impacts on human rights and the environment”. Violations can result in high penalties. A bureaucratic madness.

Gorpet

12-21-23, 12:24 AM

Skybird

12-27-23, 12:04 PM

[NZZ] Ten commandments of common sense

The "legendary" words of Abraham Lincoln about the strong and the weak and the dangers of debt were never spoken by him. They were not written until long after his assassination by a preacher of German descent. But they have retained their validity in their practical dimension.

As the focus of my column today is a text that was not written by me, some will say: he's taking the easy way out. Perhaps they will be indulgent because of the festive season. But that would be a malicious insinuation. This column has always been about regulatory policy.

I occasionally encounter the misunderstanding that this is a synonym for law and order, for the rigorous enforcement of internal security. In fact, the term "regulatory policy" encompasses something completely different, namely an understanding of the state that assigns it a very restrained role. It should only set a general framework in the economy and society that applies to everyone and not intervene selectively or in favor of individual groups.

The concept was coined by economists and lawyers and often seems somewhat anemic due to its academic roots. This cannot be said of the following text. Although it is not a regulatory pamphlet in the true sense of the word, it speaks to the hearts of many regulatory politicians, especially in view of the current attacks on the debt brake.

For a long time, the text was attributed to Abraham Lincoln, the 16th President of the United States of America, who was assassinated in 1865 (at the age of 56). However, it was written by a Presbyterian religious leader, William John Henry Boetcker, who was born in Hamburg in 1873.His Ten Commandments ("The Ten Cannots") were published in 1916 and falsely attributed to Lincoln in 1942.There are several traditions and translations. My version reads:

- You cannot prosper unless you exhort thrift.
- You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
- You cannot help the little man by destroying the great.
- You cannot help those who earn a wage by ruining those who pay it.
- You cannot help the poor by wiping out the rich.
- You cannot create solid security by going into debt.
- You cannot create brotherhood by fomenting class hatred.
- You cannot solve your difficulties by spending more than you take in.
- You cannot inspire commitment to public affairs and enthusiasm if you deprive the individual of his initiative and independence.
- You cannot help people permanently if you do for them what they could and should do for themselves.

Of course, you can hear the preacher here, some things sound old-fashioned, many things are simplified, some things are said several times. For example, the warning against debt and the emphasis that the economy is not a zero-sum game were particularly close to Boetcker's heart, as were Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, who quoted these "commandments" approvingly. But overall, they express a very fresh liberal-conservative set of values that could simply be described as common sense - then as now.
----------------
https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/zehn-gebote-des-gesunden-menschenverstands-ld.1771379

Skybird

02-02-24, 06:15 AM

[Focus] 2.9 percent - that's how high the inflation rate is expected to be in January 2024 (in Germany). That's great: inflation is under control, now it's just a question of when the central banks will cut interest rates. With inflation so low, we have to be careful not to slip into deflation.
We are a bit strange, aren't we? From September 2022 to February 2023, we always had an 8 before the decimal point, after which things slowly went downhill. But downhill only means that the rates of increase are falling again. The bottom line is that prices are continuing to climb, even though they have already risen like crazy in the last two years!

A simple fictitious calculation to illustrate this:

Commodity A cost exactly 100 euros in 2021.

2021 - 10 percent inflation - 110 euros
2022 - 10 percent inflation again - 121 euros
2023 - 5 percent inflation - 127.05 euros
2024 - 2.9 percent inflation - 130.73 euros.

Raise your hand if you are happy that prices have only risen by 2.9 percent at 130.73 euros. Anyone who can think clearly will be annoyed that the goods have become 30 percent (!) more expensive since 2021.

Now let's take product B, which has risen by four percent every year:

2021 - 4 percent inflation - 104 euros
2022 - again 4 percent inflation - 108.16 euros
2023 - again 4 percent inflation - 112.49 euros
2024 - again 4 percent inflation - 116.99 euros.

Do you understand what I'm getting at? Although the price of product B has recently increased significantly due to four percent inflation, at 117 euros it is significantly cheaper than product A.

Falling inflation rates are all well and good, but with the previous increases, it's just a drop in the ocean... . The experts can say that the "inflation dynamic in Germany has been broken". Sounds great, but people can still afford to live less and less. This is because food prices rose again in January by 3.8 percent, which is enormous. And this is despite the massive rise in prices beforehand, i.e. despite the base effect.

And what is happening now? The Germans are happy that inflation is marching back towards the ECB's two percent target and are keeping quiet? No. They want financial compensation for inflation, i.e. higher wages. It's called a wage-price spiral. Prices are rising, I need more pay to maintain my standard of living. This creates a second-round effect, because companies react to the higher costs caused by wages and the cost of goods with higher prices, making things more and more expensive. And the spiral continues, fueled by the unions. No criticism, they're just doing their job.
What does that mean? Inflation may return sooner than many people think. It is far too early for a swan song. And anyone who is already conjuring up the dangers of deflation is frankly beyond help.

And for those who are now emphasizing that we can afford these wage increases: Germany is sliding into recession for a reason. Unfortunately, that is the case. Among other things, we are paying significantly more for our hunger for energy abroad. As a result, there is less to distribute in this country. Or to put it another way: we are becoming poorer as a nation. And if inflation picks up again, many people will soon be walking through the dark forest whistling.

Skybird

03-28-24, 06:58 AM

The biggest looting of all time is imminent. A gigantic redistribution from the bottom to the top. To call it just a "looting spree" is actually trivializing it.

https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/wird_der_schuldenturm_kontrolliert_gesprengt_?_x_t r_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

There's no longer just a knock on the front door, but the one outside is pounding on the door leaf with both fists, unmistakably. His robbery buddies who fetched the battering ram are already back in the stairwell, hooting and hollering.

I'm 57, not yet old enough not to be afraid, too much life expectancy left to just become dead in time. My age group too will be hit hard. It's going to be bad and end even worse.

10 years left, I say - 15 at best. Enjoy this fading silence before the storm while it still lasts. Once feudlaism is here again and the peace and freedom is gone they will be lost for generations.

Rockstar

03-28-24, 07:20 AM

ady back in the stairwell, hooting and hollering.

I'm 57, not yet old enough not to be afraid, too much life expectancy left to just become dead in time. My age group too will be hit hard. It's going to be bad and end even worse.

10 years left, I say - 15 at best. Enjoy this fading silence before the storm while it still lasts. Once feudlaism is here again and the peace and freedom is gone they will be lost for generations.

The sun is at Solar maximum so it could all end sooner if earth is hit by a coronal mass ejection that rips away what’s left of our already weakened magnetosphere. :D

Skybird

03-28-24, 08:49 AM

Or calling Darth Vader and giving him our galactic adress. :O:

Rockstar

06-03-24, 09:45 AM

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) probing "technical issue" after some stocks incorrectly show drops up to 99%

em2nought

06-05-24, 03:03 AM

Two weeks until I can move a big chunk of my assets to a physical format. :03:

mapuc

06-13-24, 06:50 PM

Tesla shareholders on Thursday gave the green light to CEO Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package. The amount corresponds to almost DKK 390 billion.

The decision came at the company's annual general meeting in Austin in the US state of Texas.

Shareholders have also agreed to move Tesla's official address to Texas from Delaware, where a judge ruled in January for a shareholder that the pay package was too high.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/aktionaerer-godkender-elon-musks-390-milliarder-store-loenpakke/10266812?_x_tr_sl=da&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

Skybird

06-14-24, 11:44 AM

This evaded my radar completely: Zimbabwe has introduced a new currency basing on a gold standard. Ghana mulls a similiar step.

I would expect that the FED heavily tries - by whastevber means fair or unfair, legal or illegal - to make sure this fails. While the gold price will not be effected that much by these experiments, the potential danger for the dollar's status could be enormous and in the long run even become cataclysmic - if these currencies prove to become successful and then serve as an example for others to follow. This then could mark the beginning of the end for the dollar regime. Europeans should not giggle: the Euro is not better off than the dollar.

China, India and Russia can be expected to support the African ambitions, not because they like them for what they are, but because they mean trouble for the West, and they all three work and lobby for damaging the dollar status in the world.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/experts/waehrungen-in-afrika-simbabwe-fuehrt-als-erstes-land-goldstandard-ein-das-kann-schwerwiegende-folgen-haben_id_260033965.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de

The word dollar comes form "Thaler", and a Thaler/Taler originally was a quantity of something, it was a quantity measure, or more precise: a weight measure, like karat for diamonds. Dollars were made of silver or gold, minted in private (!) mints of which there were around half a dozen in the early US. How much substantial quantity is there still in a circulating state-faked "dollar" today that goes beyond unfounded abstraction and lies on its "value"? Paper, or nickel and copper, thats what they are these days. Counterfeit dollars, like every other FIAT currency circulating.

Skybird

07-13-24, 06:34 PM

https://youtube.com/shorts/GnNAtAsueNg?si=XNwD-Dw50j7_ibDu

Skybird

09-15-24, 10:06 AM

[Die Welt] Why gold is becoming increasingly valuable in a world of over-indebtedness

Gold prices are at an all-time high. But hardly anyone is taking notice. Is it now too expensive? Perhaps in the short term. That says a lot about the stability of paper currencies - and should worry citizens.

It is a record-breaking run with an increasingly high irritation threshold: on Thursday, the price of gold reached a new all-time high of 2583 US dollars per troy ounce without attracting much attention beyond the specialist media. The restraint is understandable, as the price follows a series of more than 20 highs since the beginning of the year.

In absolute terms, gold appears expensive, especially in view of the price trend since the turn of the millennium, when an ounce was available for 400 dollars. However, the price has merely adapted to a massively changed environment. Geopolitical tensions are driving government buyers and central banks into the market, and financial investors are now also fueling demand again with the purchase of gold ETFs.

One of the reasons for the hype surrounding the yellow metal is the worrying growth in government debt, including in the West: gold always serves investors as insurance against inflation as well as against disruptions in the financial system that could result from over-indebtedness in the long term. And last week was a kind of warning sign in this respect.

During the TV duel between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the US presidential election came into focus. Whoever wins in the end, neither of them is likely to make a serious effort to reduce the huge national deficit, which is currently growing by one trillion US dollars every 100 days - quite the opposite.

In Brussels, former ECB President Mario Draghi presented his 400-page report on the EU's competitiveness - and called for joint investments of 800 billion euros per year in order to keep up with China and the USA. Debt-financed of course, what else?

And in Berlin, the traffic light coalition presented such a shaky draft budget for 2025 that lawyers are expressing doubts about its constitutionality.

The global lack of understanding that the stability of paper currencies can be jeopardized if governments and supranational organizations continue to live beyond their means is a cause for concern for citizens. For the gold price, however - which by no means rules out short-term, sharp setbacks - these are probably the best prospects in the long term.

https://www.welt.de/debatte/article253519648/Mahnung-an-die-Maerkte-Warum-in-einer-Welt-der-Ueberschuldung-Gold-immer-wertvoller-wird.html

em2nought

09-20-24, 02:10 PM

Gold breaks $2600 US dollars, I think I called it somewhere around here? I should have listened to myself, as it is I'm only half out of worthless kamala fiat paper.

I'm finding the internet experience via phone far inferior to that on the PC.

Skybird

09-20-24, 04:10 PM

I cannot complain about how gold is going. :D Last time I bought was in 2016. If I would sell now (Germany/EU zone), I would gain over 100% profit, numerically (inflation not counted). And I expect the price going up much further in coming years.

As long as they do not prohibit again private owning of gold. They are all gangsters, you know. Polit-Mobsters.

However, physical gold should not be seen as an investment, but a safety.

em2nought

09-20-24, 10:23 PM

Since I'm thinking about living in Southeast Asia gold is almost as easy to operate in as a bank account, and more trusted.

Skybird

11-27-24, 07:24 AM

VW - and the other German car manufacturers - are going down the drain.

https://www-achgut-com.translate.goog/artikel/vw_stellt_produktion_selbst_entwickelter_e_autos_e in_?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Dargo

11-27-24, 12:21 PM

Germany has done a wonderful job over the last decade. But there is also the other side of the coin. Germany has had an average annual growth rate of 1 percent since 2000. That is the lowest growth rate of any European member state. While unemployment fell, the total number of working hours barely increased compared to 2000. Too many people are thus working part-time or in very precarious statuses. Germany may be the European savings champion, but it does so very inefficiently. Since 2000, the country lost over €400 billion in savings because it invested that money abroad in bad projects, such as the Spanish real estate bubble. Another downside: German society became more unequal. Today, the 10 percent lowest earners have incomes 5 percent lower than in 2000, while the 10 percent richest Germans saw their incomes rise by 15 percent. Finally, there is too little investment in the country. The average investment rate in OECD countries is 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In Germany, that figure fell from 23 percent in the 1990s, to 17 percent today. That, too, is Germany.

Germany under-invests €100 billion every year, or three to four percent of GDP. Of all the OECD countries, Germany invests the least. Germany should already invest 10 billion euros in transport infrastructure every year if Germany wants to keep its roads up to standard. One in five motorways is in bad shape, and as many as 41 percent of major regional roads. And then what does the federal government agreement say? That only EUR 5 billion will be spent on road infrastructure over the next four years. Germany is also particularly weak in education, even though, strangely enough, Germany is at the absolute top in high-tech sectors worldwide. The German government has the space, but is not using it. Since 2012, Germany has had a federal budget surplus. Even if the federal government were to allow a deficit of up to 0.35 percent, it could easily free up €15-20 billion for investment.

Mercedes, BMW and the Volkswagen Group are all in a camp where the blows are falling. According to a survey by the IFO institute in collaboration with the manufacturers, the German car industry expects to shrink by 18.3% this year. That's a hallucinatory figure, given added strength by Germany's current production capacity which is skimming around 78%, far below the healthy 87% it usually manages to turn. They are all too quick to point their finger towards the electric car. Not illogical, because on the one hand, brands have invested billions of euros in development, only to find that demand is waning worldwide. Although that partly exposes the bigger problem. Several brands seem to have bet on the right horse, but not the right race. After all, the EV evolution is not a sprint, but rather a marathon. So was it somewhat arrogant to put billions into electric cars with a sky-high price tag that were mainly used as flagships in the range? Without a doubt. Although mostly, German manufacturers gambled on winning back their investment through huge sales in China and Russia. However, the invasion of Ukraine has completely dried up the Russian market and exponential growth is also coming to an end in China. As a result, not more, but just fewer cars being sold. Oh well, European customers do keep things straight, don't they? Well, no. Because here, too, we wait with open hands for more affordable (electric) cars. That, however, is where a pain point emerges. For several German car brands have invested billions in more expensive large models that are loss-making, and those same German brands have to invest billions again in cheaper compact models in the hope of making money from them. The exception to the rule? Opel, the German brand with the blitz, owned by Stellantis. That giant group also owned by Peugeot, Fiat, Citroën, Alfa Romeo, etc. is launching a massive offensive of more affordable (electric) cars this year. Take the Opel Frontera, a family crossover from 23,260 euros with hybrid engine or 28,500 euros with all-electric powertrain. Volkswagen stood by it... and watched it sink into the drain.

Skybird

12-25-24, 07:50 AM

[TE] Qatar's energy minister reminds the ideologues in Brussels of the economic reality: if Qatar is threatened with penalties because its liquefied natural gas does not comply with the new regulations on sustainability testing, it will simply no longer be supplied to the EU.
Saad Sherida al-Kaabi is Qatar's energy minister and warned the Financial Times that he would stop exporting gas to the European Union if the EU countries impose penalties under the recently adopted sustainability impact assessment legislation. This is not a bluff, he added clearly and unequivocally.
In July, the EU directive came into force, according to which companies must prove exactly where the individual components of their products come from and whether they are sufficiently sustainable, whether there are critical effects on human rights or the environment. In case of doubt, Brussels threatens to impose fines of up to five percent of a company's global annual turnover.

“If I lose 5 percent of my turnover because I supply Europe, I will not supply Europe,” al-Kaabi coolly replied to the newspaper in an interview published on Sunday. Qatar is one of the most important suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe. QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy giant, has concluded long-term LNG supply contracts with Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands.
Al-Kaabi, who is also Chairman of QatarEnergy, said EU legislation is not practical for companies like QatarEnergy. The Corporate Due Diligence Directive adopted this year first requires larger companies operating in the European Union to check whether their supply chains use forced labor or cause environmental damage and to take appropriate action.

In plain English, the “Supply Chain Act” means that companies must prove that the components and primary products of their goods are ecologically sound. Worldwide. This must be documented and proven. Countries must transpose the new rules into national law by 2026. One year later, in 2027, the rules for companies will then gradually come into force.

Al-Kaabi: “Five percent of QatarEnergy's revenue means five percent of the revenue of the state of Qatar. That is the people's money - and no one would accept losing that much money.” He went on to say that the EU should thoroughly review the law on due diligence. He also said that his Gulf state had no concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's promise to lift the cap on liquefied natural gas exports.

Qatar would have no problem getting rid of its LNG. Federal Economics Minister Habeck also had to learn this when he flew to Qatar after the supply stop for gas from Russia and begged for additional LNG supplies. “But only for a few years,” he added - this was in the face of the rulers in the Gulf, of all people, who are doubling their capacities with gigantic investments in their LNG production plants and are only used to talking about long-term supply contracts. Even his deep stoop was of no use.

Qatar would not have to fear a loss of supply to Europe; Asian countries with their increasing hunger for energy would be good customers. And it is more than questionable whether the USA would get involved in such outlandish, extremely expensive bureaucratic games with its LNG deliveries to Europe.

Incidentally, not a single battery for e-cars would be allowed to be imported into Europe under these rules. The routes by which the gigantic quantities of raw materials for battery production come from all over the world are too tortuous. Only hardcore greens in Brussels can believe that their sustainability would somehow be documented.

:haha::haha::haha:

Dargo

12-25-24, 11:03 AM

European countries import the commodity from around the world, such as from the United States (19.4), African countries (14.1%) as Algeria and even some more from Russia (14.8%), Norway (30.3%), United Kingdom (5.7%). Apart from Qatar (5.3%), gas also comes from other Middle Eastern countries such as Oman. These are long-term contracts of 20 or +20 years, Qatar cannot cancel them tomorrow! Qatar is largely economically dependent on fossil fuel exports. If there are no more sales heading towards Europe, it will have to sell more in Asia, for example. America also wants to sell more gas to the EU. It's a trade they won't just stop, the EU is too important for that. Above all, they want to make a point. Financial markets are hardly reacting to Qatar's threat, the buying price on the gas market has not increased hugely or higher than other days. This is totally not a problem gas plenty for sale in the world sellers plenty who want to supply Europe! With the Dutch and Spanish intensifying hydrogen we will need much less natural gas, this is going to happen in 2 years then we won't need Qatar at all, this is all just scaremongering the markets are not scared, so this analysing is FUBAR.Calculations by the International Energy Agency show that the Iberian Peninsula is the cheapest place in Europe to make green hydrogen. In Northern Europe, making a kilogram of hydrogen costs between €3 and €4 and in Spain and Portugal about €2. Spain and Portugal also want to build a pipeline to France, connecting it to the rest of Europe. This so-called H2Med pipeline opening in 2030 will run under the Mediterranean Sea to Marseille and could transport two million tonnes of green hydrogen annually. The Netherlands will not wait until the H2Med pipeline is ready, and is therefore already agreeing on shipping routes. Spain will become a major supplier of renewable hydrogen in Europe; via Spanish and Dutch ports, that hydrogen can be exported to north-Western Europe. The plan is for Spanish ships full of hydrogen to dock at the port of Rotterdam from 2027. Two €3 billion green hydrogen plants are currently being built in southern Spain. Portugal is also betting on hydrogen. Two hydrogen plants are being built in the port of Sines. Earlier, the port of Rotterdam signed a declaration of intent with Portugal to import green hydrogen.Natural gas will certainly not give way to hydrogen overnight. If the production of hydrogen increases in the coming years, the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel for central heating could take place step by step. It is conceivable that already in the next few years, in some places, the gas will consist partly of hydrogen. Natural gas will then be ‘blended’ with hydrogen. Currently, hydrogen, because of its properties, is mainly used in industry. Such as in fertiliser production, blast furnaces of metal industries and refining processes. It is also increasingly used as a fuel for vehicles, such as cars and buses. The use of hydrogen as a fuel for aircraft is also being experimented with. All heavy industry and large parts of the electric energy will use hydrogen as a fuel.

The Middle East is in the midst of a difficult transition as it slowly has to start saying goodbye to highly lucrative oil and gas. Dubai made its first oil discovery only in 1966, eight years later than neighbouring Emirate Abu Dhabi. And two decades before that, Saudi Arabia discovered the world's largest oil well. Once accounting for half of Dubai's national income, oil is now less than 1 per cent, according to Bloomberg. In Saudi Arabia, 40 per cent of its gross national product still comes from oil. Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia has made no secret of its ambitions to boost tourism and is investing heavily in its aviation. The oil and natural gas party is going to end not now, but certainly this century so get used to switching to the new train, this old-fashioned line is closing fast, every oil and gas country knows this and is switching. You can stay behind on the old platform, your choice, but don't expect any more wealth than just old-fashioned ideas that are no longer worth anything.

Skybird

12-25-24, 11:59 AM

. These are long-term contracts of 20 or +20 years, Qatar cannot cancel them tomorrow!
Of course they can, if Brussels unilaterally wants to change trade conditions they cannot be expected to just accept that.
And even a valid treaty you can simply break - you just must not care for the consequences.
Quatar has what others want, namely in Asia, but also all the world: energy. The demand is exploding. Namely in Asia. And it does not economically depend on hard economic returns in form of hardware or industrial production from Europe, it can easily get all that from other parts of the world, including the US or China. The EU needs Quatar more than the other way around. In other words: Brussels has no threats to sanction them. Quatar predominantly lives by boosting soft power, not hard power. And thats why it is practically immune to Brussels. I remind of the football world championship, and the scandal about Quatari driven corruption in the EU parliament, or the quite one-sided airtravel agreement between Quatar and the EU, whih economically is quite disadvantageous for European airlines. And if Europe does not do trade with Quatar - the Cinese would be all too willing to fill the gap.

Also, piss Trump with overboarding excesses in bureaucracy and according costs, and see what you will get in return. Won't get pretty, thats for sure.

An unloaded gun rarely produces a loud bang.

Edit, on hydrogen, check the physics and costs and logistics behind using hydrogen as an energy storage medium for transportation, and be dramatically disillusioned. Economically this is just a very effective way to destroy stellar quantities of money in no time for the smallest effect imaginable. Means: it will not work as hoped for, not even close to it, not now, not in the forseeable and not in a distant future. And hydrogen being used for general household heating - NEVER. Its an absolutely laughable fantasy that will not work with the presently existing set of natural and economic laws.

There are people who seriously think fusion reactors are just around the corner. They are not, they are still many decades away (if they ever come). But their concept is more realistic than the idea you could have a highy developed industry on the basis of hydrogen as energy carrier. There will be lighthouse projects here and there, small compounds with limited industrial relevance for the bigger pirtcure that will get maintained for curiosity. But it will never become mainstream- NEVER. Its economically and financially and logistically unsustainable.

Dargo

12-25-24, 12:19 PM

I stand by that these long-term contracts can not be cancelled, and I tell you Qatar will not do that like Russia, Ukraine do not break up long-term contracts (During the whole Cold War we had gas long-term contracts with our enemy the USSR.). We as buyer have the loaded gun, it is bigger than the tiny 5,1 gun Qatar has. Trump is waiting for us to do this, the more products he can sell to the biggest market this biggly enlarge his narcist ego. You better learn Trump, economics and the importance of geopolitics we are the ones they make profit from we therefore can also demand... both sides in a deal have needs and demands!

That hydrogen as energy is already a part of our economy, industry but by all means stay behind on that old track we will become the hydrogen gateway of Europe same as we are the Transport gateway because we are the stupid ones that made all those big mistakes in the past centuries that made us a world power in the past you Germans, Brits and French started wars because we were so bad at making choices that made us to big and prosper. Yeah, we so stupid you out of fear needed to get rid of us, pfff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cIHLgGZByY

Skybird

12-25-24, 12:59 PM

Those contracts were agreed on on the grounds of the then-valid trading conditions, these were the ground on which Quatar signed those deals and their specific terms. The EU legislation now changes this context, it is a non-negotiated and not-agreed-to unilaterial change of the treaty context by one side to the disadvantage of the other side, specifying terms and conditions the treaty did not contain. Therefore, pacta sund servanda does not apply.

Quatar has more requests for energy deliveries than it can service. And it does not economcially depend on the EU. Thats why the EU deals with Quatar with soft gloves even in the face of Quatar-financed corruption in EU parliament, corrupted sport events, accusations of bribery, even murderings, not to mention accusations of human rights violations inside Quatar.

Quatar does not need the EU that much at all. ;)

Quatar has more demand for its energy than it can service, from outside the EU. Germany learned this the hard way in 2022 when initially the German request to get gas was put down by the Quatari top. Just at the end of the year, half a year later, they agreed to a deal - now to their conditions (the German demand for a time limitation was no longer included) which had more almost only symbolic volume, a small quantity of what Habeck originally was asking for the summer before. And since then Quatar has alrready given prewarnings to germany that they may end the deal even earlier again, to their liking. And the Germans? Can only nod, and pray.

So, its quite clear who seats in the upper chair here. The quatari dictate the conditions, and we complied to their terms. And when they violate or end that treaty early - there is nothing we can do about that. We just cna try to find other solutions.

BTW, Biden has limited the LNG deliveries to Germany despite existing treaties from after the Russian invasion, too. Not many are aware of it, but in the government, regarding the gas situation and future supply security the lights already are back on red. They so far keep the lid on it in the state-loyal media, due to upcoming elections, but its true.

And China is just lurking and waiting for its chance to expand in the Gulf.

Dargo

12-25-24, 01:56 PM

We do not need Qatar sellers enough, and it is 5.1% of the whole import of Europe. The Biden administration is not Trump, he wants the EU buys more from the US win-win. In autumn, ONE-Dyas drilled the first well from which natural gas can be produced from field N05-A in the Dutch part of the North Sea. Soon end 2024 begin 2025, the production well will be connected to the Dutch natural gas network via the production platform (The extraction phase takes 10 to 25 years on average.). And there will be more natural gas fields in the coming years so we not need Qatar, really the North Sea is full of fields yet to be tapped. It means a 30% lower carbon footprint, it increases security of supply and provides economic benefits in the form of employment, income for the Dutch state and preservation of knowledge and infrastructure for the energy transition. So, And fetch it ourselves let Qatar sink into a gas field, we will save ourselves.

Skybird

12-25-24, 02:25 PM

Nevertheless, Quatar does not need Europe as a customer and can cancel it if it wants to. That is my only point in this conversation.

Skybird

12-27-24, 08:31 AM

The enforcement of completely digital financial systems will prove to be the most important whip with which free peoples will be forced back into servitude, servility and obedience to party and state dictatorship.

We really must hope for the great continental blackout to knock some sense into the people, the majority of whom still shrug their shoulders stupidly and simple-mindedly at the mention of this threat.

-----------------

The abolition of cash: How quickly the digital euro should take over

By Hannes Maertin,December 26, 2024

The digitalization of the financial system is progressing at an alarming rate. The introduction of a virtual euro by the ECB is already in the starting blocks. The war on cash is declared and financial freedom is at stake.

The introduction of the digital euro by the European Central Bank (ECB) could become a reality sooner than many might expect. The ECB started a preparatory phase for the digital version of the fiat currency as early as October 2023. The final introduction of a digital central bank currency (CBDC) in the euro area is expected by 2028. On the way there, the use of cash will logically be increasingly restricted - because a large part of the population should ultimately use the digital central bank money. But what is behind it, and what interests are represented by the digitization of the euro?

What are CBDCs?

CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) differ from traditional bank deposits in key ways. While CBDCs are issued and controlled directly by central banks, the management of ordinary bank money is the responsibility of commercial banks. This gives central banks more extensive control over the money supply and monetary policy measures. Technologically, CBDCs are often based on blockchain systems, while traditional bank money is based on classic banking systems.

Access to CBDCs is via special digital wallets (eWallets) or apps, in contrast to traditional bank accounts. Another crucial difference is their programmability: So-called smart contracts, self-executing digital contracts on the blockchain that automatically trigger actions, can provide CBDCs with functions such as the time-limited validity of credit balances, automatic debits or the restriction of certain transactions based on predefined criteria.

These possibilities pose the risk of massively restricting the financial freedom of the individual. The goal of CBDCS appears to be complete control over the transaction behavior of the individual citizen. This is achieved when every transaction can be tracked and the account blocked if necessary.

Cash is slowly bleeding out – acceptance is gradually dwindling

In many places, it is becoming increasingly difficult to pay with cash. Many airlines have long since completely abandoned cash. Acceptance of cash is also continuing to decline in rail transport. Deutsche Bahn is planning a pilot project from February 2025 in which cash payments in on-board catering will be restricted. On selected ICE routes, payments will only be possible digitally from February to May 2025. Although this is initially a test phase, it is quite possible that the project will be well received and that Deutsche Bahn will subsequently abolish cash payments completely. It is also quite conceivable that other companies and organizations will follow this example, as there is a clear trend in German society to move away from cash.

A recent study by the Deutsche Bundesbank shows that in 2023 only 51 percent of transactions in Germany will be carried out with cash. This continues the trend of recent years: in 2020 the share was still 58 percent, while in 2017 it was recorded at a much higher 74 percent.

This change shows a clear trend towards cashless payment methods, with debit cards and mobile payment methods in particular becoming increasingly important. Given the free choice of payment method, 44 percent of respondents would now prefer to pay cashless, an increase of 3 percentage points compared to two years ago. Only 28 percent prefer cash as a payment method.

The elimination of cash: How transactions are digitized

Is the plan to eliminate cash now entering the next phase? In many regions, ATMs are being systematically removed. The savings banks currently only operate 21,000 ATMs across the whole of Germany, a decline of almost 18 percent since 2018. The Volksbanken and Raiffeisenbanken are also recording a similar trend, with a decline in their ATMs from around 18,100 in 2018 to around 14,700 last year.

In addition, the ECB has approved a significantly lower production of coins for the 20 countries of the eurozone for 2025. Coins with a total value of around 2.1 billion euros are to be minted next year. That may sound like a lot at first, but in comparison, the volume in the current year was just under 2.4 billion euros. In 2023, coins worth 2.6 billion euros were minted. It is conceivable that coin minting will be slowly but consistently phased out to pave the way for the digitization of the financial system.

A gradual change is also taking place in banknotes: in 2016, the ECB stopped issuing 500 euro notes, officially on the grounds that it wanted to combat money laundering more effectively. At the same time, cash transactions are being increasingly restricted. This year, the EU decided on a cash limit of 10,000 euros, which will become binding in all member states. Cash payments above this amount will be illegal in the future and must be processed electronically. According to official information, this law also serves to combat money laundering, terrorist financing and tax evasion. In addition, strict documentation requirements apply to cash payments above an amount of 3,000 euros. Retailers are obliged to record buyers' data in detail to ensure traceability.

It is becoming increasingly clear that cash is being systematically pushed back. But what is really behind it? Is the fight against money laundering, terrorism and tax evasion really the main goal? Or does the progressive digitization of the financial system ultimately serve the purpose of gaining comprehensive control over citizens and their financial activities?

These disadvantages await us through the abolition of cash

Cash represents freedom. It is anonymous, untraceable and allows many people to better control their spending.

With the introduction of the virtual fiat currency, every single transaction will become transparent. In the long term, citizens of the Eurozone could be reduced to a single account at the European Central Bank (ECB) - a kind of "digital wallet" for all financial exchanges. This centralization would give the ECB extensive control and management powers, which could lead to 100% dependence on the central bank.

This scenario becomes particularly critical when one considers that the digital euro could be linked to a social rating system – similar to the Chinese Social Credit System. Financial freedoms could then be made dependent on compliant behavior.

These fears are exacerbated by the increasing digitization of private life, particularly the introduction of digital identity. From 2026, this will be available to all EU citizens and will centrally store personal data such as driving licenses, birth certificates or electronic prescriptions. The combination of digital central bank money and digital ID entails far-reaching risks: comprehensive biometric recording and complete control of every individual would be technically feasible without any problems. Measures such as freezing bank accounts, restricting access to basic everyday services, or even the complete expropriation of assets would be entirely conceivable.

How could the digital euro be adapted?

This does not only apply to the Eurozone. More than 130 central banks worldwide are working on implementing digital currencies. The global advance of CBDCs indicates that the financial autonomy of many people is under serious threat.

In some countries, virtual central bank currencies have even been introduced, such as in Nigeria, Jamaica and Panama. However, in most cases this met with great resistance from the population. After the eNaira was introduced in Nigeria in 2021 as Africa's first CBDC, the success was limited: according to estimates, only around 0.5 percent of Nigerians currently use the eNaira.

Even though cash is no longer of great importance for most citizens in Germany, the introduction of the digital euro could still be met with opposition, similar to that in Nigeria. So how could central bank money be adapted in Europe, and especially in Germany? The answer seems to lie in the welfare state.

More than 4 million people in Germany currently receive citizen's benefits. Due to demographic change, the age rate is very high. Last year there were around 22.1 million pensioners in Germany. If it were now possible to process the benefits of these groups exclusively via the digital euro, a large section of the population would already have been persuaded to accept the new system. These people are dependent on state benefits. Whether these are released in the form of digital central bank money or in some other way is something that very few people will care about.

If an unconditional basic income were to be introduced, as demanded by the Left or the Greens, which would be paid out unconditionally by the state to everyone in the form of the digital euro, the entire population would be on the hook. Whether they want it or not, it could be possible to connect every citizen to the new monetary system.

The introduction of digital central bank money and digital identity marks a turning point. Concern about the loss of financial freedom and privacy is growing. It is up to us to critically question what freedom we are prepared to give up for supposed convenience and security. The protest can be very simple: avoid restaurants and shops with signs saying "Card payment only". You should avoid companies that make denunciations. Cash is the cheapest form of payment anyway. Electronic money is subject to high fees for each individual transaction - and the prices are correspondingly higher.
https://www.tichyseinblick.de/wirtschaft/abschaffung-des-bargelds/

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Utmost frightening. Who is not frightened by this, must be stupid. Or terminally ill.